Showing posts with label Nick Madrigal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nick Madrigal. Show all posts

Friday, January 10, 2020

2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Chicago White Sox

The White Sox' system has been among the most elite in the game over the past few years, and perhaps its best development yet was the massive breakout of Luis Robert in 2019. On the hitters' side, it's more about big names at the top than depth, with Robert, Andrew Vaughn, and Nick Madrigal leading the way. However, disappointing seasons from a trio of high minors outfielders in Micker Adolfo, Blake Rutherford, and Luis Gonzalez do hurt a little bit, making the emergence of Robert even bigger. On the pitching side, injuries have really hurt them, with the top two starting pitching prospects, Michael Kopech and Dane Dunning, both missing the year with Tommy John surgery and the top two relief prospects, Zack Burdi and Ian Hamilton, combining to throw just 39 innings. Fortunately, breakout years from Jonathan Stiever and Codi Heuer help make up some of that ground. Overall, it remains one of the top systems in the game, but I think even with the big year from Luis Robert, it's probably down a bit from where it's been the past couple years and is probably just outside the top five.

Affiliates: AAA Charlotte Knights, AA Birmingham Barons, High A Winston-Salem Dash, Class A Kannapolis Intimidators, rookie level Great Falls Voyagers, complex level AZL and DSL White Sox

Catcher
- Zack Collins (2020 Age: 25): Collins, a first round pick out of Miami in 2016, has always been fringy defensively behind the plate, but it looks like that won't matter now that the White Sox signed Yasmani Grandal and James McCann looks slated to be the backup. Instead, he'll probably share time with Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Abreu at first base and DH. In 2019, Collins hit .282/.403/.548 with 19 home runs and a 98/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AAA Charlotte, and he hit .186/.307/.349 with three home runs and a 39/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 major league games. Collins is the epitome of a three true outcomes hitter, as he strikes out a ton but also hits lots of home runs and draws more than his fair share of walks. The swing and miss was enough that it finally caught up to him in the majors, where he struck out in 38.2% of his plate appearances, but his ability to draw walks and hit home runs enabled him to post a decent .656 OPS despite hitting just .186. I'm cautiously optimistic about Collins' ability to hit for enough power and draw enough walks that his high strikeout totals won't hurt his numbers too much, though now that he won't be catching regularly, the pressure will be on his bat. If it breaks right, he could hit 25+ home runs annually with middling on-base percentages, but with low batting averages.
- Seby Zavala (2020 Age: 26): Zavala is a pretty fringy prospect, and his future in Chicago probably hinges on whether the White Sox decide to use Collins as their third string catcher or strictly as a first base/DH type. If Collins ends up at DH full time, Zavala will be prepared to take over as the backup if either Grandal or McCann gets hurt, and in 2019 he slashed .222/.296/.471 with 20 home runs and a 116/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 games at AAA Charlotte. His MLB debut didn't go so well, as he struck out nine times in twelve plate appearances over five games, picking up one hit along the way, though some regular reps could help the San Diego State product get to his power more frequently at the big league level. He's a bat first catcher, so while the position is a bonus, he'll still have to hit to remain relevant.
- Keep an eye on: Ivan Gonzalez

Corner Infield
- Andrew Vaughn (2020 Age: 22): Vaughn was just drafted third overall out of Cal-Berkeley in 2019, but he's honestly so advanced as a hitter that he already tops the depth chart here. He mashed for three years at Cal (.376/.497/.691, 50 HR in 160 games) then hit .278/.384/.449 with six home runs and a 38/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games in the complex level Arizona League, at Class A Kannapolis, and at High A Winston-Salem. If 50 home runs and nearly a .500 on-base percentage over three years in college aren't enough, Vaughn's .252/.349/.411 line in 29 games at High A just a month out of college ball should tell you just how advanced of a hitter he is. It's really easy to call him a right handed Joey Votto, because he has an exceptional understanding of the strike zone that enables him to be in complete control of the zone no matter who is pitching, and that maximizes what is really just above average power into a true plus tool. Together, that gives Vaughn the upside of 30+ home runs annually with on-base percentages above .400, which should net him MVP consideration as a Votto/Freddie Freeman type of player. He'll also fly through the minors and will soon challenge Jose Abreu or Zack Collins for one of their positions because defensively, he's limited to first base.
- Gavin Sheets (2020 Age: 24): Sheets, a second rounder out of Wake Forest in 2017 and the son of former Oriole Larry Sheets, fits behind Vaughn on this depth chart not because of anything he did wrong, but because Vaughn is so good. 2019 was a bit of a breakout year, at least in terms of home runs, as he slashed .267/.345/.414 with 16 home runs and a 99/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at AA Birmingham after hitting just ten total home runs the previous two years. Even with the increased home run output in 2019, his overall impact at the plate has been just a bit lighter than expected in pro ball, though he does control the strike zone well, limiting his strikeouts and drawing his share of walks. He might be a starting-quality first baseman if he takes a small step forward with his power, which is entirely doable, but the presence of Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn, Zack Collins, and at least temporarily, Edwin Encarnacion, will make that difficult when the only positions he can play are first base and DH. That means he'll probably end up as a bench or platoon bat in the majors unless he's traded.
- Jake Burger (2020 Age: 24): It's been a really tough run for Burger. A first round pick out of Missouri State in 2017, he hit a solid .263/.336/.412 in his pro debut but tore his Achillies in spring training in 2018 and tore it again in May, completely wiping out his 2018 season. He then "severely bruised" his heel in 2019, which also wiped another entire season. So long story short, Burger is extremely talented by he hasn't played in two and a half years. Before the injury, he was a power hitter who was starting to make some real strides with his plate discipline, and it looked really good in his junior season and in his pro debut. That power will probably still be there when he finally returns, but he'll also probably need to regain his feel for the strike zone after not seeing live pitching in so long. A fringy defender at third base before the injury, there were already questions as to whether he'd move to first base, and I can't imagine two years of leg injuries help his case there. Really, we just need to wait and see.
- Bryan Ramos (2020 Age: 18): The White Sox signed Ramos for $300,000 out of Cuba in 2018, but in his first pro season in 2019, he made a strong impression by slashing .277/.353/.415 with four home runs and a 44/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games in the complex level Arizona League. He's got some raw power that he's still growing into, and he did a great job of getting on base consistently despite being just 17 years old. A fairly fringy defender at third base, he looked good in his debut and now has a good shot to stick there, though he's far too young to really know which parts of his game are going to be his calling cards down the road.
- DJ Gladney (2020 Age: 18-19): Gladney, a hometown kid who attended Illiana Christian High School in Dyer, Indiana, was a 16th rounder in 2019 and hit .264/.309/.428 with eight home runs and an 82/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games in the complex level Arizona League in his pro debut. He has a ton of raw pop that should only get bigger as he grows stronger, though he struggles to control the zone at this point and both his approach and his mechanics will need significant refinement. Fortunately, he doesn't turn 19 until July, making him young for a high school draftee and giving him plenty of time to iron things out and reach his tremendous potential.
- Keep an eye on: Ti'Quan Forbes, Tyler Osik, Harvin Mendoza

Middle Infield
- Nick Madrigal (2020 Age: 23): Madrigal, the fourth overall pick out of Oregon State in 2018, has flown through the minors as expected and slashed .311/.377/.414 with four home runs, 35 stolen bases, and an exceptional 16/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at High A Winston-Salem, AA Birmingham, and AAA Charlotte in his pro debut this year. Yes, you read that correctly; Madrigal struck out 16 times in 120 games, or in just 3% of his plate appearances. He has arguably the best bat to ball skills in the minor leagues, and if you include his pro debut in 2018, he's struck out just 21 times in 163 games. Madrigal is not merely a slap hitter, as he hit 27 doubles, five triples, and four home runs in 2019, and even though he stands just 5'7", I think he'll be able to hit for enough impact in the majors to continue to evade the slap hitter label. That doesn't mean he'll hit double digit home runs every year, but I think 5-10 is reasonable and with his ability to find the barrel whenever he wants to, he could post on-base percentages nearing .400. An excellent runner, he'll provide a lot of value via the stolen base and he plays a very good second base, giving him all-around leadoff potential. With no clear option at second base in 2020, the starting job might be his to lose this year.
- Danny Mendick (2020 Age: 26): Doing his best to keep Madrigal out of that starting role for as long as he can will be Danny Mendick, a former 22nd round pick out of UMass-Lowell who has worked his way up through the minors slowly. In 2019, he slashed .279/.368/.444 with 17 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 96/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at AAA Charlotte, then he had a successful debut where he slashed .308/.325/.462 with a pair of home runs in 16 major league games. Mendick has no loud tools, but he's strongly competent in all facets of the game with good plate discipline, some compact strength in his 5'10" frame, and good baserunning and fielding instincts, which all adds up to a perfect utility infield profile. If Madrigal stumbles at all in spring training, Mendick might be able to land the starting second base job out of the gate, but either way it won't be long before Madrigal takes over.
- Yolbert Sanchez (2020 Age: 23): Not to be confused with now former White Sox infielder Yolmer Sanchez, Yolbert defected from Cuba and signed with the White Sox for $2.5 million in July 2019 and slashed .297/.386/.441 with two home runs and a 12/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games in the Dominican Summer League just to get his feet wet. Given that he'll be 23 in March, he'll probably skip a few levels and end up in full season ball in 2019. Sanchez is a decent hitter who can make consistent contact with a line drive approach, but he doesn't hit for much power yet and at 5'11" and almost 23 years old, he probably won't develop a ton. On the flip side, he's an excellent defender at shortstop who will stick there no doubt, taking a lot of pressure off his bat, and if he can hit for at least some impact, he could start in the big leagues eventually. Even if he just hits a little bit, he could carve out a nice career as a utility infielder.
- Keep an eye on: Lenyn Sosa, Lency Delgado, Jose Rodriguez

Outfield
- Luis Robert (2020 Age: 22-23): Last year, Eloy Jimenez broke through and contended for the Rookie of the Year Award before Yordan Alvarez burst onto the scene, and the White Sox have another elite young outfielder coming up behind him in Luis Robert. Robert signed a $50 million contract extension this winter, giving him $76 million in guaranteed money (including his signing bonus) before ever steps onto a major league field, so there will be no worries about potential service time manipulation as he's set to start the season as an every day outfielder, potentially in center field. Injuries limited him to just 78 games over his first two seasons, but to say he "broke out" in 2019 would be an understatement as he slashed .328/.376/.624 with 32 home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 129/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at High A Winston-Salem, AA Birmingham, and AAA Charlotte. He's an exceptional athlete who can generate a ton of torque with just the flick of his wrists, and he got to that power consistently against high level pitching in 2019. He's also a great runner, as evidenced by his 36 stolen bases in 2019, and that enables him to play a strong center field with his strong arm. The one hole in Robert's game is probably his aggressive approach, which limits his walks and causes him to strike out a decent amount, but the White Sox aren't worried about the hit tool because he makes very consistent, very hard contact and he did so even against AAA pitching. Robert has 20-20 or even 30-30 upside, and while he might not draw a ton of walks, he'll still have healthy, batting average-driven on-base percentages while playing great defense. That's a star's profile, though he still needs to prove his aggressive approach will work against major league pitching.
- Blake Rutherford (2020 Age: 22-23): Rutherford was the Yankees' first round pick in 2016 out of a Los Angeles-area high school, then came to Chicago in the Todd Frazier/David Robertson trade of 2017. In 2019, Rutherford slashed .265/.319/.365 with seven home runs and a 118/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at AA Birmingham, which was a bit of a step back from his .293/.345/.436 mark in High A in 2018. The power has not developed nearly to what was projected when he was a high schooler, but he's continued to hit the ball hard and control the strike zone well enough to generate some impact at the plate. It might be the ground ball-heavy approach that's hurting him, and joining the fly ball revolution could pay big dividends. Defensively, he's solid-average, and overall he projects more as a fourth outfielder than as a starter unless he can start to tap that power by lifting the ball more.
- Micker Adolfo (2020 Age: 23): Adolfo signed for $1.6 million out of the Dominican Republic back in 2013, but unfortunately he's played just one full season as injuries have kept him off the field consistently. Back to back elbow surgeries in 2018 and 2019 limited his time most recently, and this year he slashed just .227/.346/.367 with two home runs and a 57/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games between AA Birmingham and complex level rehab. However, he'll play all of 2020 at just 23 years old, and he's looked so good when on the field that it's really hard to count him out. He has a ton of pop from the right side, but he has a ton of swing and miss problems as well, which he could be able to iron out if he could just stay on the field consistently. Defensively, his cannon arm makes him an asset in right field, though we have to see how it holds up after all these elbow surgeries. Overall, he retains a high ceiling if he can ever get on the field consistently, but I do worry that he's missed enough time that his hit tool will never catch up and he'll be relegated to a platoon bat.
- Luis Alexander Basabe (2020 Age: 23): Luis Alexander Basabe, not to be confused with his twin brother and Diamondbacks prospect, the similarly named Luis Alejandro Basabe, was acquired from the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade of 2016. He slashed .250/.331/.341 with three home runs and a 92/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 games at Class A Kannapolis and AA Birmingham in 2019, but it's his glove that makes him worth tracking as a prospect. Basabe is great in center field with his range and strong arm, and that solid defense probably puts him ahead of Luis Gonzalez, another outfielder with a fairly similar offensive skill set, on the depth chart. Behind all these outfielders at the top of the system, he's probably a fourth outfielder, but his defense is probably only rivaled by Luis Robert (too many Luis's) and he can swing it just enough to make it work.
- Cameron Simmons (2020 Age: 23): Here's a deep sleeper for you. Simmons had a huge sophomore year at UVA and was looking like a great prospect for the 2018 draft, but shoulder surgery wiped out that junior season and he didn't look like the same player as a senior in 2019, where he dropped to the 20th round. After signing with the White Sox, he slashed .275/.342/.458 with five home runs and a 47/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at rookie level Great Falls and Class A Kannapolis, which was a nice step in the right direction. At 6'4", Simmons is a graceful athlete on the field, but he looked stiffer after his injury and the numbers reflected that. The White Sox will work to get him back to where he was as an underclassman, and if his strong run through the Pioneer League and ability to hold his own in Class A are any indication, they might be able to build Simmons back up into a legitimate prospect.
- James Beard (2020 Age: 19): Beard was a fourth round pick out of a southwestern Mississippi high school in 2019, and he went on to slash .213/.270/.307 with two home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 54/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games in the rookie level Arizona League. Beard's calling card is by far his speed, which at this point remains the only part of his game that could really be considered pro-caliber at this point. He's extremely raw around the rest of his game, which is to be expected coming from a very rural part of Mississippi, but there is upside around the rest of his game. Though he's just 5'10", he packs a lot of strength into his compact frame, and he's got the swing to potentially hit for some power down the road. He's also trending in the right direction and put himself on the map in his senior year at Loyd Star High School, and the White Sox will hope that patience will pay off for the young speedster.
- Keep an eye on: Luis Gonzalez, Craig Dedelow, Alex Destino, Luis Mieses

Starting Pitching
- Michael Kopech (2020 Age: 24): Here's to hoping we get to see a healthy return for Michael Kopech in 2019. Drafted by the Red Sox at the end of the first round in 2014 out of a Northeast Texas high school, Kopech was shipped to the White Sox in the Chris Sale trade and a couple of strong seasons put him in the majors in 2018, where he had a 5.02 ERA and a 15/2 strikeout to walk ratio in four starts. However, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2019, and that's where we stand today. When healthy, he sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball that misses a ton of bats with its velocity and its hard arm side run, and he adds a hard slider that also misses a ton of bats with its velocity and late, hard break. Kopech also throws a curve and a changeup, which are effective pitches in their own right, but their existence is more to keep hitters from sitting on his fastball and slider than to be out pitches on their own. The one question for him, at least up until his Tommy John surgery, was command, and he will have to prove he can throw strikes and hit his spots consistently in order to retain his upside as a #1 or #2 starter. If the command stays where it's at, he could still crack it as an effective #3 or a #4 starter just due to how great his stuff is. The first thing on the list, of course, will be getting back to full strength after the surgery.
- Jonathan Stiever (2020 Age: 22-23): Stiever was more or less your generic college performer when the White Sox drafted him out of the University of Indiana in 2018, then he had a solid run through Class A Kannapolis with a 4.74 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 77/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings to start 2019. He was promoted to High A Winston-Salem in June and just took off, posting a 2.15 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 77/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 innings over the remainder of the year; he is no longer just a generic college performer. His fastball has taken a step forward, now sitting in the low to mid 90's with sink, and he's also improved his feel for his breaking balls. His curve and slider can now both miss bats, and with his above average command, he easily profiles as a #3 starter in the big leagues. Stiever is somewhat of a local guy, as he grew up just north of Milwaukee in Cedarburg, Wisconsin before attending Indiana, giving White Sox fans another reason to root for him.
- Dane Dunning (2020 Age: 25): Dunning was a late first round pick out of Florida by the Nationals in 2016, then by the offseason he was shipped to the White Sox in the Adam Eaton/Lucas Giolito trade. A skinnier guy at 6'4", he has been very effective with a 2.74 ERA through 266 minor league innings, but he also has faced durability questions throughout his career even before he succumbed to Tommy John surgery just before the 2019 season. When healthy, Dunning is about as well rounded of a pitcher as you can be, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a whole slew of secondary pitches that can move every which way, and he can make everything play up with good command and a funky delivery that throws off hitters' timing. There's really not much of a question as to whether he could fit as a #3 or a #4 starter when healthy, but durability has been the big question mark and the surgery didn't help. He'll try to work his way back in 2020 and pitchers can often come out of Tommy John surgery stronger than before, so we'll see as to whether he can reclaim his prospect status quickly or if he'll need some time. If durability problems eventually do force him to the bullpen, he could be an extremely effective long reliever.
- Konnor Pilkington (2020 Age: 22): Pilkington rode and up and down career at Mississippi State to a third round selection in 2018, and in 2019 he posted a 4.12 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 138/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 innings at Class A Kannapolis and High A Winston-Salem. His velocity was down and his stuff was flatter in his junior year, and as a pro he's still sitting around 90 with his fastball and his curve and slider remain fairly flat. The changeup has taken a significant step forward and his command has improved a tick as well, which enabled him to dominate Class A then hold his own in High A as a 21 year old in 2019. He was also very young for a college junior when he was drafted and he'll still play all of 2020 at 22 years old, so he has time to regain the stuff that made him a potential first rounder earlier in his Mississippi State career. I don't see that as overly likely, and the lefty likely fits in as more of a #4/#5 starter or a reliever.
- Kade McClure (2020 Age: 24): McClure was a sixth round pick out of Louisville in 2017, and in 2019 he posted a 3.25 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 99/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at Class A Kannapolis and High A Winston-Salem. At 23, McClure was old for Class A, but he pitched just as well at High A and he has a good shot at carving out a role as a #5 starter. He's a really big guy, standing at 6'7", and he sits in the low 90's while adding decent secondary stuff that can play up due to his great command and the extension he gets on his pitches. Now that he's healthy after missing some time with injuries in 2018, he could move quickly and be knocking on the big league door by the end of 2020.
- Andrew Dalquist (2020 Age: 19): Dalquist was the White Sox' third round pick out of a Los Angeles-area high school in 2019, though he threw just three innings in his pro debut, albeit scoreless innings. Dalquist is a 6'1" righty with a broad skill set that stands out above any singular "wow" pitch, but I really liked him coming into the draft and I think he's a nice sleeper for the Sox. Dalquist sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and gets good run on the pitch, adding a curve, a slider, and a changeup. The curve is probably his better breaking ball, as it has nice shape at present and could become a plus pitch if he adds more power. He also commands everything pretty well for a teenager and has a pretty easy delivery, giving him a really nice, broad skill base from which to start working in pro ball. It might take him a little longer and he still needs to prove his durability, but I think he could be a solid mid-rotation starter.
- Matthew Thompson (2020 Age: 19-20): A potential first round pick coming out of a Houston-area high school in 2019, Thompson took a step back during his senior season and wound up signing above slot in the second round. Like Dalquist, he was barely used in his pro debut and threw two shutout innings, so we'll have to wait until 2020 to see what he can really do in pro ball. Thompson sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but with his quick arm and projectable 6'3" frame, there's almost certainly more velocity in there to unlock. His curveball looked like a plus pitch at times during his high school career, but it flattened out a bit in his senior year and it was part of the reason he slipped to the second round. He also has flashed a good changeup at times, though it's still in its early stages of development, and in general he can throw strikes when he's going right. The White Sox are going to need to refine him significantly and get him more consistent with his offspeed stuff and command, then they can hope for a velocity bump that could ultimately push him towards his ceiling of a #2 starter.
- Keep an eye on: Kyle Kubat, Bernardo FloresLincoln Henzman, Jimmy LambertBlake Battenfield, John Parke, Taylor VarnellDavis Martin, Avery Weems

Relief Pitching
- Ian Hamilton (2020 Age: 24-25): Hamilton should be a full time major league reliever by now, but unfortunately a pair of freak injuries completely derailed his 2019 season. He hurt his shoulder in a car accident before the season, returned to post an ugly 9.92 ERA and 1.90 WHIP but with a strong 20/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 16.1 innings at AAA Charlotte, then got hit in the face by a line drive and that was it for his season. When healthy, Hamilton combines great stuff with the ability to throw consistent strikes, which enabled him to have a 1.74 ERA in the high minors in 2018. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and gets a ton of ground ball outs, and he adds a power slider that misses a lot of bats. With solid control, that helps him make the most of his two pitches, and he'll look to hit the reset button in 2020 and hopefully crack the Chicago bullpen sooner rather than later.
- Codi Heuer (2020 Age: 23-24): Heuer was a sixth round pick out of Wichita State in 2018, where he was a starter, and he continued starting in his unspectacular pro debut (4.74 ERA, 35/14 K/BB). However, the White Sox switched him to the bullpen in 2019, and the results were immediate – he posted a 2.39 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 65/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 67.2 innings at High A Winston-Salem and AA Birmingham. His stuff took a very tangible step forward, as his fastball bumped into the mid 90's and his slider got sharper, and he was able to fill the zone consistently enough to make it play up. He probably won't end up a closer at the major league level, as his stuff is just a little light to do so, but he checks all the boxes of an effective middle reliever and could end up as a seventh or eighth inning guy in the near future.
- Zack Burdi (2020 Age: 25): Burdi was a late first round pick out of Louisville in 2016, then reached AAA less than two months after he signed. However, after rocketing up that first year, he's been stalled by Tommy John surgery as well as knee surgery and has yet to reach the majors. In 2019, before his knee surgery, Burdi had a 6.75 ERA, a 1.85 WHIP, and a 30/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings at Class A Kannapolis and AA Birmingham, making it a third straight lost season. There's no question about his talent – when healthy, he has an upper 90's fastball, a great slider, and a good changeup, enough to profile well as an impact reliever right now. His command can be inconsistent due to all the injuries, which has limited his effectiveness, and he'll need to get it to around average if he wants to be that impact reliever he can be. Even if it stays below average, he could still stick in the bullpen as long as he stays healthy.
- Alec Hansen (2020 Age: 25): Hansen was a serious candidate to be a top five draft pick entering his junior year at Oklahoma, but a disastrous season dropped him to the second round in 2016. He's been just as inconsistent in pro ball, posting a 2.80 ERA and a 191/51 strikeout to walk ratio in his first full season in 2017 before seeing his ERA balloon to 6.31 as he walked more than a batter per inning in 2018. This year, he transitioned to the bullpen and posted a 4.64 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and a 66/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings at High A Winston-Salem and AA Birmingham. He's a 6'7" righty with electric stuff, sitting in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and adding a pair of good breaking balls. However, despite figuring himself out in 2017, he's had absolutely no idea where the ball was going over the last two seasons and it's easy to lay off 99 when it's in the dirt or the other batters box. 2019 was his first year as a reliever, and the White Sox will hope that he just needed a year to figure out the new role, but he'll need to get his command together soon if he ever wants to be a big league reliever. If he can, the ceiling remains high.
- Keep an eye on: Tyler Johnson, Bennett Sousa, Karan PatelDan Metzdorf, Pauly Milto,

Thursday, September 19, 2019

2018 Draft: A Year Later

One year does not tell you everything you need to know about a draft's success, but the first full season is often a huge tell as to how a player's amateur production will translate into pro ball. In 2017, 2016 second rounder Bo Bichette (Blue Jays) slashed .362/.423/.565 in A ball to turn himself into one of the top prospects in his draft class, while fourth overall pick Riley Pint's (Rockies) 5.42 ERA and poor 79/59 strikeout to walk ratio in Class A that year pointed towards what has ultimately been a disappointing start to his pro career and a greatly diminished prospect status. Now, this does go the other way. Using the same 2016 draft class, third rounder Austin Hays (Orioles) slashed .329/.365/.593 with 32 home runs in 2017 to vault himself all the way to the big leagues, but 2018 and 2019 have been rather pedestrian and he has lost some shine from that big first full season. On the flip side, first rounder Gavin Lux (Dodgers) looked rather mediocre in Class A that year with a .244/.331/.362 slash line, but he exploded for a .324/.399/.514 line in 2018 and is now one of the top prospects in the game.

All of that said about the 2016 draft, the first full season very important, and I'm ready to dive into the 2018 draftees and where they stand today at the end of the 2019 season. As a whole, this draft class is proving to be particularly strong as a lot of players have over-performed and very few have seriously under-performed.

The Top Five Picks

1-1: RHP Casey Mize (Auburn -> Detroit Tigers). Stock ticking up – cautiously
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP at High A and AA
It's been a roller coaster ride for Mize so far, as a lot happened in his first full season. He had some minor durability questions as an underclassman at Auburn, though he mostly alleviated them as a junior but was still held to just 13.2 innings in his pro debut in 2018 after a long season in the SEC. The Tigers turned him loose at High A Lakeland in 2019, and he quickly rewarded them with four exceptional starts, so he was promoted to AA Erie and threw a no-hitter in his first start at the level. As of June 13th, he had a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, but a minor shoulder injury shut him down that day and the entire state of Michigan held its breath. Fortunately, he returned in July, but he was knocked around a bit and had a 6.61 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 30/11 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 31.1 innings before being shut down. The Tigers maintain that he was healthy and that they felt he had accomplished everything he needed to in 2019 and that they were just monitoring his workload, but shoulder injuries are very scary and, at their worst, can end careers. In all, I'd take Mize's 2019 season as a success in that he proved he could dominate the upper minors in just his first full season, but I'm only cautiously optimistic because of the shoulder issue.

1-2: C Joey Bart (Georgia Tech -> San Francisco Giants). Stock holding
16 HR, .278/.328/.495, 5 SB, 71/21 K/BB, 128 wRC+ in 79 games at High A and AA
Aside from a broken left hand that kept him out of action from mid April until early June, Bart neither exceeded nor fell short of expectations in 2019. The 2018 second overall pick out of Georgia Tech began the season at High A San Jose, completely skipping Class A after spending most of his 2018 pro debut at short season Salem-Keizer, and he slashed .265/.315/.479 with 12 home runs and a 50/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games around that broken hand. Promoted to AA Richmond towards the end of the season, Bart held up well at the advanced level and slashed .316/.368/.544 with four home runs and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games, giving him 16 home runs and a .278/.328/.495 line on the abbreviated year. Bart showed his light-tower power throughout the season, though he didn't get to it quite consistently enough to warrant bumping his already valuable stock up further. Not known for strong plate discipline in college, his approach held up against advanced pitching and looks like it won't be a problem. Bart remains on track to take over the starting catching job from Buster Posey sometime in the next few seasons.

1-3: 3B Alec Bohm (Wichita State -> Philadelphia Phillies). Stock ticking up
21 HR, .305/.378/.518, 6 SB, 73/57 K/BB, 160 wRC+ in 125 games at Class A, High A, and AA
Like Bart, Alec Bohm was known in college for his prodigious raw power. The Phillies weren't quite as aggressive with the Wichita State product, starting him at Class A Lakewood, and he proved quickly that he didn't belong by slashing .367/.441/.595 with three home runs in 22 games, earning a promotion to High A Clearwater. Despite the pitcher-friendly environment, he still slashed .329/.395/.506 with four home runs and a 21/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. He earned a promotion to AA Reading, though at this point, he had hit "just" seven home runs in 62 games – not a bad number, especially considering his high on-base percentage, but you'd hope for more out of your star third overall pick who was known for his power. In hitter-friendly Reading, that power finally showed up and he slashed .269/.344/.500 with 14 home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games to close out the year. Together, that meant 21 home runs and a .305/.378/.518 line in his first full season, showing a potent all-around bat that should be major league ready in 2020. With the juiced balls in AAA and the majors, he should have no problem getting to his power up there and his strong plate discipline will help him be a true middle of the order threat.

1-4: SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State -> Chicago White Sox). Stock ticking up
4 HR, .311/.377/.414, 35 SB, 16/44 K/BB, 125 wRC+ in 120 games at High A, AA, and AAA
While Bohm started in Class A, Madrigal joined Mize and Bart with that aggressive assignment to High A, in this case Winston-Salem, and he responded by slashing .272/.346/.377 with two home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 6/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Those weren't the flashiest numbers, but Madrigal is listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, so it was a big step towards proving he could hit pro pitching with authority. Called up to AA Birmingham, he improved to .341/.400/.451 with one home run, 14 stolen bases, and a 5/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games, earning yet another promotion up to AAA Charlotte barely a year after he was drafted. A .331/.398/.424 with a home run, four stolen bases, and a 5/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games closed out his season, and he finished at .309/.371/.398 with 35 stolen bases and just 16 strikeouts in 120 games, good for a 3% strikeout rate. The scouting report today stands exactly the same as it did last year when he was drafted, but now not only does he make the easiest contact in minor league baseball while stealing plenty of bases, he can hit for *some* moderate power as well with 27 doubles, five triples, and four home runs this year. Now a second baseman, where he fits better, he'll match up well with Tim Anderson when he reaches the majors in 2020, likely shortly after his 23rd birthday.

1-5: 3B Jonathan India (Florida -> Cincinnati Reds). Stock down a tick
11 HR, .259/.365/.402, 11 SB, 110/59 K/BB, 129 wRC+ in 121 games at High A and AA
Jonathan India's massive offensive outburst as a junior at Florida in 2018 propelled him into the first round, where I ranked him twelfth on my personal list and where the Reds drafted him with the fifth overall pick. As his first full season comes to a close, I'm feeling pretty good about that #12 ranking and my feeling that #5 was a bit too high seems to be reaffirmed. That said, while India failed to live up to expectations in 2019, I wouldn't call this year a full-on disappointment given the pitcher-friendly contexts he played in. India started off at High A Daytona Beach, where he slashed a rather pedestrian .256/.346/.410 with eight home runs and an 84/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games. Promoted up to AA Chattanooga in July, he finished off the season by slashing .270/.414/.378 with three home runs and a 26/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games, giving him eleven home runs and a .259/.365/.402 line for the year. India showed strong plate discipline to go with average power and contact ability, and though the power didn't really carry over to AA, he remains a highly regarded prospect who should be an all-around contributor at the major league level. As I said with Bohm, the juiced balls at AAA and the majors should help him tap into that power a bit more, and he could be a solid #5 hitter with the Reds in the near future. I just don't see him as a future star.

Stock Way Up
1-6: OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West (WI) HS -> New York Mets -> Seattle Mariners)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 111/50 K/BB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games at Class A, High A, and AA
If we were to re-do the 2018 Draft this winter, Casey Mize would probably still go first overall, but Jarred Kelenic would have a real shot at going second after after his monster first full season left the Mets regretting trading him to the Mariners in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal. Like most advanced high school bats, Kelenic started the season in Class A with West Virginia, but he only lasted 50 games after he slashed .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs and a 45/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to High A Modesto, he kept on hitting against advanced competition to the tune of a .290/.353/.485 line, six home runs, and a 49/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. In August, the Mariners decided to turn him loose up at AA Arkansas, where he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six more home runs and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games against extremely advanced pitching. We all knew he was advanced for a high schooler, but even then, a 20-20 season and a .291/.364/.540 line while reaching AA is extremely impressive. Unlike most high school draftees, Kelenic is on the fast track to the majors, and he could be a productive, top of the lineup hitter in the Mariners' lineup sooner rather than later.

1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson -> Seattle Mariners)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Well, what can you say, the 2018 Draft has been good to the Seattle Mariners. Not only has Jarred Kelenic established himself as one of the top prospects in baseball, Logan Gilbert has bumped his name among the best pitching prospects as well. After holding him out of game action in 2018 following a long season with Stetson, the Mariners started him off slowly with a relatively conservative assignment to Class A West Virginia, where he posted a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 36/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings before his promotion drew a collective sigh of relief across South Atlantic League lineups. Up at High A Modesto, his opponents didn't fare much better, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings, forcing another promotion. Up at AA Arkansas by mid-July, he had a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over nine starts to finish off one of the finest pitching seasons in the minors this year. He entered the year with good, not great, stuff across the board, but it all played up exceptionally well as he missed bats left and right while maintaining the above average command that helped him go in the first round. Viewed as a potential #2 or #3 starter at draft time, Gilbert looks like he could be a true ace in the near future.

1-28: OF Seth Beer (Clemson -> Houston Astros -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
26 HR, .289/.388/.516, 0 SB, 113/46 K/BB, 155 wRC+ at High A and AA
At Clemson, Seth Beer put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers against strong ACC pitching, but his pronounced history of struggling with wood bats against top competition left teams wondering what his bat would look like in pro ball. Combine that with little to no defensive value and Beer was an enigmatic prospect to the fullest extent. He slashed .304/.389/.496 and reached Class A in his 67 game pro debut in 2018 after going to the Astros in the back of the first round, but his monster 2019 season got rid of any concerns that his bat would play up. After slashing .328/.414/.602 with nine home runs in 35 games at High A Fayetteville, he was quickly promoted to AA Corpus Christi, where he slashed .299/.407/.543 over 63 games before slumping to .205/.297/.318 after being traded to the Diamondbacks. Beer's big production proves he's much closer to the hitter he was at Clemson rather than the one he was over the summers, and this Seth Beer could have been a top ten pick with plate discipline, power, and the ability to get to it. He still won't provide any defensive value, but his bat will slot right into the middle of the Arizona lineup.

2-63: OF Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel [IL] HS -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
10 HR, .300/.379/.450, 15 SB, 105/52 K/BB, 140 wRC+ at Class A and High A
Thomas' numbers don't quite pop off the page like some of the names above him, but for a second rounder that was pegged as a fringy starter/possible fourth outfielder, he's certainly exceeded expectations by a long shot. Thomas started off at Class A Kane County and raked to the tune of a .312/.393/.479 line, eight home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 72/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games in the pitcher-friendly league. Aggressively promoted up to High A Visalia just a few months after his 19th birthday, he slashed a respectable .255/.327/.340 with a pair of home runs and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games against advanced competition. We all knew that Thomas had an advanced feel for the game, but we questioned his tools. He showed that strong plate discipline and defense this year, but he also proved he could hit for impact, and that could be the difference between him developing into a fourth outfielder and a legitimate, dynamic, every day contributor.

CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (Le Moyne -> Cincinnati Reds -> Los Angeles Dodgers)
11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Just as the Mets probably regret trading Jarred Kelenic, the Reds probably regret dealing Josiah Gray in the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp deal. A shortstop when he first reached Division II Le Moyne College in Syracuse, New York, Gray transitioned to the mound and immediately showed a tremendous ceiling. A strong pro debut with Greeneville in the rookie level Appalachian League (2.58 ERA, 59/17 K/BB) in 2018 was an encouraging sign, but he proved in 2019 that he is much more advanced than originally anticipated and that he's flying towards that high ceiling. The Dodgers reasonably started him at Class A Great Lakes, but he put up a 1.93 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings and he was quickly bumped to High A Rancho Cucamonga. There, he didn't miss a beat, posting a 2.14 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 80/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.1 innings. Up at AA Tulsa well shy of his 22nd birthday, he had a 2.75 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 41/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings. Gray is exceptionally athletic and we already knew he had solid stuff, but he sharpened everything this year while greatly improving his command and turning himself into the complete package as a potential #1 or #2 starter. Still a few months away from turning 22, Gray is progressing much more quickly than expected and could be next in the line of great Dodgers rookies.

Others: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (1-11, Orioles), SS Nico Hoerner (1-24, Cubs), LHP Shane McClanahan (1-31, Rays), LHP Kris Bubic (2-40, Royals), RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (2-48, Mets)

Stock Down
1-23: C Anthony Seigler (Cartersville [GA] HS -> New York Yankees)
0 HR, .175/.328/.206, 1 SB, 28/20 K/BB, 74 wRC+ at Class A
I wouldn't go calling Seigler a bust right away, but his lost 2019 season certainly didn't go as planned. After beginning the season in extended spring training, he debuted with Class A Charleston in June, and picked up multiple hits in three of his first six games, but he slumped hard over the next 24 and was slashing just .175/.328/.206 when a July cross-up with the pitcher ended his season with him taking a fastball of the knee. In his limited game action, Seigler showed strong plate discipline and feel for catching, but he showed virtually no impact with the bat. That's especially concerning given that his strong plate discipline proved that he wasn't exactly overmatched, so if Seigler doesn't start showing some authority at the plate in 2020, he's likely destined for back-up duty in the majors.

1-27: RHP Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island [FL] HS -> Washington Nationals)
1-1, 7.52 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 19/14 K/BB in 20.1 IP at complex level
The Nationals signed Denaburg to an over-slot $3 million deal knowing that he was dealing with biceps issues, hoping he'd be healthy and ready to be turned loose in 2019. Unfortunately, those biceps problems continued over into 2019, holding him out of game action until June. When he did finally get on the mound in the complex-level Gulf Coast League, he wasn't nearly as polished as advertised, posting a 7.52 ERA and walking 14 batters in 20.1 innings across seven appearances. His control regressed and his stuff flattened out, making 2019 a lost season in terms of his development. As a high school draftee, Denaburg only turned 20 in August, but he'll have a lot to prove in 2020, starting with getting healthy.

CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest -> St. Louis Cardinals)
1-7, 6.44 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 36/35 K/BB in 65.2 IP at High A
It's a good thing that Cardinals' 2018 first rounder Nolan Gorman had a strong year, because it's gone just about as poorly as possible for competitive balance pick Griffin Roberts. Two positive tests for marijuana meant that he got slapped with a 50 game suspension to start the 2019 season, so he didn't make it into game action until June. Once he got on the mound for High A Palm Beach, he wasn't nearly as effective as advertised, walking nearly as many batters as he struck out while allowing opponents to hit over .300 against him in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. While he wasn't necessarily known for his command at Wake Forest, it wasn't a weak spot, either, but it certainly was in 2019 when he walked 35 batters and hit 17 in 65.2 innings. His lethal fastball/slider combination, which he certainly was known for in college, played down in the FSL and he didn't miss nearly as many bats as hoped as he consistently fell into hitters' counts. Roberts has always pitched better out of the bullpen and it looks like that will be his best option going forward, where he can hopefully get back on track.

Others: OF Connor Scott (1-13, Marlins), RHP Cole Winn (1-15, Rangers), OF Jake McCarthy (CBA-39,  Diamondbacks), RHP Owen White (2-55, Rangers), RHP Jayson Schroeder (2-66, Astros)

Saturday, February 23, 2019

Reviewing the Chicago White Sox Farm System

Through trades and player development, the White Sox have built one of the top farm systems in baseball led by some star hitters as well as plenty of pitching depth. Because many of the system's top prospects came via trade, most of the best prospects are closer to the majors, and with the White Sox' window of contention looking to begin around 2020, that's just how they want it. It's really a nice balance they have going and they're not lacking in any demographic except perhaps infielders beyond Nick Madrigal.

Affiliates: AAA Charlotte Knights, AA Birmingham Barons, High A Winston-Salem Dash, Class A Kannapolis Intimidators, rookie level Great Falls Voyagers, and complex level AZL and DSL White Sox

The Headliner: OF Eloy Jimenez
Big systems like this often have multiple headliners, but 22 year old Eloy Jimenez is just so good that he warrants his own section even in this stacked system. Originally signed by the Cubs for $2.8 million in 2013 as arguably the top international prospect in the class, he was sent over to the White Sox (along with, among others, arguably the system's current top pitching prospect in Dylan Cease) for Jose Quintana in 2017, and he has gotten better every year in the minors. In 2018, he slashed .337/.384/.577 with 22 home runs and a 69/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games between AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, firmly establishing himself as one of the top prospects in the game. Jimenez's best tool is his light tower power from a 6'4" frame, but unlike most sluggers his age, he rarely lets the ball get by him and lines a ton of singles and doubles as well. This ability to consistently find the barrel will make his already tremendous power play up in the majors, giving him the chance to hit 30 or more home runs per season while posting good on-base percentages. At this point, he doesn't walk all that much, though the rest of his offensive profile more than makes up for that and he should be a middle of the order thumper in the very near future. Defensively, he's not going to be much help in left field, but that doesn't matter because of his bat. He'll likely begin the 2019 season in AAA "working on his defense" (so the White Sox can get another year of team control), but once he's up in the majors around late April, he should be a strong contender in a stacked AL Rookie of the Year race that should also include Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Danny Jansen, Houston's Kyle Tucker, Tampa Bay's Brent Honeywell, and Oakland's Jesus Luzardo, among many others.

High Minors Hitters: C Seby Zavala, C Zack Collins, OF Luis Alexander Basabe, OF Joel Booker, OF Danny Mendick, and 1B Gavin Sheets
The talent level among hitters in the upper minors drops off considerably after Eloy Jimenez, but there is still plenty of talent to go around and the White Sox should have significant reinforcements coming in the next couple of seasons. 25 year old Seby Zavala is an older prospect who just slashed .258/.317/.418 with 13 home runs and a 109/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games between AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, but he can stick behind the plate and that makes the bat play up. He's not the best defender, but he can handle the catcher's position adequately and has enough power and on-base ability to profile comfortably as a back-up catcher in the near future. Behind him, 24 year old Zack Collins is the team's top catching prospect, and he slashed .234/.382/.404 with 15 home runs and a 158/101 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games with Birmingham. The former Miami Hurricane and 2016 first round pick (tenth overall) has a very interesting profile both offensively and defensively. He has plenty of raw power but struggles to get to it in games due to high strikeout rates, but he also draws so many walks that his game-value might actually lie more in his on-base percentage than his slugging percentage despite hitting just 58 singles in 122 games in 2018 (that's what happens with 50 extra base hits, 101 walks, and 158 strikeouts). Defensively, he's not quite a natural behind the plate, but he reportedly has worked extremely hard to be where he is and the White Sox are confident he can handle the position at the highest level. Together, that makes for a wide range of possibilities even after a full season in AA, with his ceiling being that of a power hitting catcher who can pop 20-30 home runs per season with good on-base percentages and playable defense. However, he'll have to make more contact to make that a reality. 22 year old Luis Alexander Basabe, one of the less well-known players the White Sox received in the package for Chris Sale, slashed .258/.354/.445 with 15 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 140/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games between High A Winston-Salem and Birmingham. However, he broke his hand in spring training and will have to miss the beginning of the 2019 season. Basabe is an outfielder who is more well known for his glove than his bat, as he can stick in center field and play well there, taking pressure off his bat. He has some power and has shown the ability to draw walks and get on base, but at this point he strikes out too much to confidently project him as an every day player, and the broken hand won't help him in his quest to conquer that. As I said though, the glove does buy the bat some slack, so he still has a chance to earn a starting spot down the road with a few tweaks in his approach. 25 year olds Joel Booker and Danny Mendick will compete for bench spots in the near future, with Booker holding a fourth outfielder projection and Mendick looking to be a utility infielder. Booker slashed .279/.360/.399 with seven home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 119/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games between Winston-Salem and Birmingham, performing better before the promotion (.297/.389/.469) but still holding his own afterwards (.266/.338/.348). His speed and contact ability will help him up the ladder, but ultimately the bat-glove combination is a little light to ever envision him starting. Mendick, meanwhile, slashed .247/.340/.395 with 14 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 90/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at Birmingham. To me, he's the slightly better prospect with better plate discipline, a bit more power, and the ability to stick in the infield. He's not the rangiest shortstop but could probably handle a spot start or two at a time there, overall bringing a utility infield projection with an average bat and average glove. Lastly, 22 year old Gavin Sheets had an interesting first full pro season after being drafted in the second round (49th overall) out of Wake Forest in 2017. In 2018, he slashed .293/.368/.407 with six home runs and an 81/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Winston-Salem (just down the street from where he played college ball), handling High A pitching well just a year after he was drafted. However, the 6'4", 230 pound slugger's power did not quite show up with wood bats like it did with metal bats in college (he blasted 21 home runs in 63 games in his junior season), and as a first baseman, that's raises questions. His bat is supposed to carry him if he wants to start in the major leagues, and while it's nice that he makes plenty of contact and controls the strike zone well, you want more out of a 6'4" first baseman. It will be interesting to see if he can add power in 2019.

Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Luis Robert, OF Blake Rutherford, OF Luis Gonzalez, OF Micker Adolfo, SS Nick Madrigal, OF Steele Walker, and 3B Jake Burger
Lower down, the White Sox are stacked with outfielders and should have no trouble building their outfields down the line. The best prospect is 21 year old Luis Robert, who signed for an incredible $26 million in 2017 out of Cuba but who has struggled to stay healthy. In 2018, Robert slashed .269/.333/.360 with no home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 52/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games between Class A Kannapolis, High A Winston-Salem, and complex level rehab, missing a lot of time with a thumb injury. Despite going homerless in 2018, Robert generates plenty of raw power from a smooth right handed swing and a 6'3" frame, and he did slash .324/.367/.432 with a pair of home runs and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games in the Arizona Fall League. Once he gets healthy, he should have no trouble getting to his power consistently, with the upside as a top or middle of the order hitter. Defensively, he plays a solid center field and would be equally valuable in right, and his plus speed helps him steal plenty of bases as well as provide that great defense. The biggest question marks for Robert just come with proving his immense talent on the diamond, as the injuries have kept him from getting consistent at bats. 21 year old Blake Rutherford was acquired from the Yankees in the big Todd Frazier/David Robertson trade of 2017, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.345/.436 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 90/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at Winston-Salem. At 6'3", Rutherford looks like a power hitter, but he has been more of a line drive hitter in pro ball and instead lines extra base hits around the field. That ability to make contact and find the barrel leaves the White Sox hoping he can translate that gap power into over the fence power, as he's just average in the outfield and will need his bat to carry him. He still carries high upside and could be a breakout candidate for 2019, during which he'll turn 22 and likely spend most of his time at AA, but for now he looks like a decent regular who could hold down a starting spot for a little bit or end up a strong fourth outfielder. 23 year old Luis Gonzalez, unrelated to former World Series hero Luis Gonzalez (his son Jacob is in the Giants' organization), was a third round pick (87th overall) out of New Mexico in 2017 and slashed .307/.368/.498 with 14 home runs and a 103/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games between Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, not losing any production after his promotion. He has a ton of gap power and plenty of feel for the barrel, which enabled him to rack up 59 extra base hits in 2018 (including 40 doubles) and leaves the White Sox confident he'll continue to hit as he moves up the ladder. He was extremely patient in college as well as in his pro debut in 2017, but he drew fewer walks in 2018 and that will be something to watch. He plays a very solid center field, and at this point he carries a similar projection to Rutherford as a potential regular who could be a very strong fourth outfielder, albeit with less uncertainty in the projection (higher floor, lower ceiling/less breakout potential). 22 year old Micker Adolfo followed up his breakout 2017 (.264/.331/.453) with another solid season in 2018, slashing .282/.369/.464 with eleven home runs and a 92/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games, though Tommy John surgery ended his season in July. He has plenty of power at the plate but doesn't always get to it due to a high strikeout rate, though the White Sox hope that more consistent time on the field will help him on that front (like Robert, he has missed a lot of time to injuries). He's not all that fast but he has a cannon arm, making him a prototypical right fielder and one whose bat doesn't necessarily have to carry all of the weight. Adolfo could end up being a 20-25 homer bat down the line, but we'll have to see how he fares with more consistent health and playing time in the coming seasons. 21 year old Nick Madrigal may be listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, but his fantastic hit tool got him drafted fourth overall out of Oregon State as he and the Beavers went on to win the College World Series in 2018. He struck out just seven times in 42 games as a junior, then slashed .303/.353/.348 with eight stolen bases and a 5/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games between complex ball, Kannapolis, and Winston-Salem for a total of 12 strikeouts in 85 games. He has some of the best bat to ball skills in all of minor league baseball, making it nearly impossible to get the ball by him and giving him plenty of opportunities to use his plus speed to get on base. Though he'll never be mistaken for a power hitter, Madrigal isn't completely punchless at the plate and could hit upwards of ten home runs per season in the majors to go along with plenty of doubles and triples, and he has true top of the order potential. Defensively, he's a natural at second base but could be able to stick as a shortstop if he can show enough arm strength, either way providing plenty of value on defense. Expect to see Madrigal up in the majors soon. The White Sox took 22 year old Steele Walker in the second round (46th overall) out of Oklahoma in the same 2018 draft, though he slashed just .209/.271/.342 with five home runs and a 37/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games between complex ball, rookie level Great Falls, and Kannapolis in his pro debut. Walker has a natural feel for the barrel and in college was able to make the whole greater than the sum of his parts, using his gritty mindset and high baseball IQ in his favor. That didn't translate in those first 44 games, so we'll have to see how he comes out in 2019 after plenty more pro coaching. Overall, it looks like a fourth outfield projection as he's nothing special on defense, but because of his reportedly strong work ethic, I wouldn't bet against him. Lastly, 22 year old Jake Burger missed the 2018 season with an achilles injury but is a good prospect to watch after having been drafted in the first round (eleventh overall) out of Missouri State in 2017, especially considering the White Sox' lack of infield depth. He's a power hitter with solid feel for the barrel as well, making him a good candidate to hit at the major league level. He's only so-so at third base but works hard on his defense and has a shot to stick there (though the achilles injury doesn't help), and a good season in 2019 could put him back on the radar as a potential middle of the order hitter.

Starting Pitchers: RHP Michael Kopech, RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Dane Dunning, LHP Kodi Medeiros, LHP Bernardo Flores, RHP A.J. Puckett, and RHP Jonathan Stiever
The White Sox have a lot of pitching depth, and because so many of their top pitching prospects are actually relievers, I'm splitting them along that line. Interestingly, most of their best starting pitching prospects actually came via trade, and they have done very well in that regard. We all know 22 year old Michael Kopech, the 6'3" right hander who posted a 3.70 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 170/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.1 innings at AAA Charlotte before posting a 5.02 ERA and a 15/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.1 innings in the majors. Acquired from Boston in the Chris Sale trade, Kopech unfortunately blew out his elbow in September and had to undergo Tommy John surgery, likely knocking him out for all of 2019. When healthy, the East Texan is most well known for his upper 90's, moving fastball that he can simply blow by even the best hitters. He also adds a great slider that misses a ton of bats, making him one of the toughest pitchers to face in minor league baseball. On the flip side, though, he struggles with his command and gets hit when he falls behind in the count or leaves his fastball over the plate, because as we all know, pro hitters can hit 100 MPH fastballs if they're middle-middle. The Tommy John surgery is obviously a huge setback that will make it all the more difficult for him to improve that command, but if he can, he has #2 starter or even possibly ace upside. We'll just have to wait until 2020. 23 year old Dylan Cease, over from the Cubs with Eloy Jimenez in the Jose Quintana trade, had a fantastic season in 2018 by going 12-2 with a 2.40 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 160/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 innings between High A Winston-Salem and AA Birmingham. The 6'2" righty is actually a fairly similar prospect to Kopech, just not as extreme. He comfortably sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds an excellent curveball that, like Kopech's slider, misses a ton of bats. Also like Kopech, Cease struggles with command, though he is steadily coming along in that regard and the White Sox hope he can be average by the time he reaches the majors. Cease has #2 starter upside with a good shot at being at least a #3, and if all goes according to plan, he should make for a very good one-two punch with Kopech in the 2020's. 24 year old Dane Dunning, who came over from the Nationals in the Adam Eaton trade, posted a 2.71 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 100/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.1 innings between Winston-Salem and Birmingham, proving to be a different kind of prospect than Kopech and Cease. He's a 6'4" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and changeup, though he commands everything much better than those guys. His stuff also plays up due to the deception in his funky delivery, though on the flip side he did miss time with elbow issues in 2018. If he can stay healthy, he has mid rotation upside, and the fact that he tossed 144 innings in 2017 does ease the durability questions. 22 year old Kodi Medeiros was acquired from the Brewers for Joakim Soria this past July, and he posted a 3.60 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 141/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings in AA. The former first round pick (12th overall out of a Hawaii high school in 2014) sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a great slider, though his control comes and goes because his cross-fire delivery is difficult to keep in sync. When he has everything going, though, that deception makes his pitches play up and helps him miss plenty of bats, and he has continued to work hard to get more consistent. The 6'2" lefty looks like a future #3 or #4 starter if everything breaks right, though the pitching depth in this system could end up forcing him to the bullpen, where I get the feeling he could be very, very good. 23 year old Bernardo Flores is an under the radar arm who posted a 2.65 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 156 innings at Winston-Salem and Birmingham this year, and unlike the four names above him on this list, he was actually drafted by the White Sox (seventh round in 2016 out of Southern California). He typically sits in the low 90's with his fastball (though he has been as high as 97 in the past) with so-so breaking balls, adding a solid changeup and using his command to make everything play up. As a lefty without great stuff, he profiles as a #4 or #5 starter but could sneak up on some people because of his durability and feel for pitching. 23 year old A.J. Puckett came over from the Royals for Melky Cabrera in July and posted a 3.98 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 119/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.2 innings between the two High A affiliates. He throws in the low 90's and like Flores, adds a solid changeup despite a mediocre breaking ball, though his command is just a bit behind Flores' and he looks like a #5 starter or solid long reliever right now. Lastly, 21 year old Jonathan Stiever was a fifth round pick out of Indiana in 2018, then posted a 4.18 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 39/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 innings at rookie level Great Falls. Stiever is a 6'2" righty with a solid breaking ball and overall fairly advanced command, which is typical for those day two power-five college arms. He finished the season on a run of ten straight shutout innings (including the Pioneer League playoffs) and is a solid mid to back of the rotation arm to follow down lower in the minors.

Relievers: RHP Ian Hamilton, RHP Zack Burdi, RHP Jose Ruiz, RHP Alec Hansen, RHP Tyler Johnson, and RHP Lincoln Henzman
For all the talk about the White Sox' headlining prospects like Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, and Dylan Cease, the White Sox are actually really deep in relievers and should have a very solid homegrown bullpen in the future. 23 year old Ian Hamilton had a breakout year in 2018 and posted a 1.74 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 62/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.2 innings at AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, then put up a 4.50 ERA and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio in eight major league innings. He's a fastball-slider righty who sits in the mid 90's and misses his fair share of bats, though the slider isn't so devastating that he'll be putting up ridiculous strikeout numbers in the majors or anything. He profiles best as a solid seventh or eighth inning guy and has a good shot at the Opening Day roster. 23 year old Zack Burdi, a product of the same 2016 draft (26th overall out of Louisville), has the higher ceiling as a prospect but missed almost all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery, returning in August to post a 2.84 ERA and a 7/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 6.1 innings in complex ball rehab. He sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and adds a hard slider and a good changeup, giving him multiple weapons to help that velocity play up even further. Had he not gotten hurt, he may have been a September call-up in 2017, and assuming he comes out firing and healthy in spring training, he also has a shot at the Opening Day roster. A healthy Burdi will likely be an impact reliever for the White Sox, perhaps even a closer. 24 year old Jose Ruiz is yet another fastball/slider righty, checking in with a 3.07 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 77/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings at High A Winston-Salem and Birmingham followed by a 4.15 ERA and a 6/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 4.1 major league innings. Sitting in the mid 90's and adding a good slider, he's not quite the prospect that Hamilton and Burdi are, but he should contribute as a solid middle reliever in the near future. 24 year old Alec Hansen has had an absolute roller coaster of a career, looking like he had a shot at being the first overall pick in the 2016 draft before a poor junior season at Oklahoma dropped him to the second round, where the White Sox picked him up with the 49th overall pick. He then dominated the minors in 2016 (1.32 ERA, 81/20 K/BB) and 2017 (2.80 ERA, 191/51 K/BB), establishing himself as a potential impact starter, but it all fell apart again in 2018 after he missed time with forearm soreness and posted a 6.31 ERA, a 2.01 WHIP, and a 55/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings at Winston-Salem and Birmingham upon returning. Hansen has fantastic stuff with a mid 90's fastball, a couple of solid breaking balls, and a useable changeup from a 6'7" frame, but his command ranges anywhere from average on his best days to downright un-playable on his worst. Over a three start stretch from July 18th to July 29th, he walked 22 batters in 10.1 innings and was subsequently demoted from AA to High A, where he wasn't much better. Now 24, Hansen is at a bit of a crossroads and may have to be bumped from the rotation to the bullpen, where he could likely sit in the upper 90's and strike out hitters en masse if he can maintain any semblance of command. 23 year old Tyler Johnson, like Ian Hamilton, had a breakout season in 2018 and posted a 1.40 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an 89/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 innings at Class A Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, using his mid 90's fastball and good slider to miss plenty of bats against A ball hitters. Because he was facing mostly younger competition in 2018, we'll have to see how he fares in the upper minors in 2019, but he could be another seventh or eighth inning arm in the Chicago bullpen in the near future. Lastly, 23 year old Lincoln Henzman is a starter for now, having posted a 2.35 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an 80/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 107.1 innings at Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, like Johnson performing very well against mostly younger competition. Giving the starting pitching depth in this system and Henzman's lack of a reliable breaking ball, he may be forced to the bullpen down the road, currently working with a ground ball-inducing low to mid 90's fastball, a solid changeup, and a decent cutter, all of which he controls pretty well. How he fares against AA hitters and whether he proves he can handle a starter's workload in 2019 will likely determine whether he ends up a back-end starter or a solid middle reliever in the long run.

Friday, June 15, 2018

2018 Draft Review: Chicago White Sox

First 5 rounds: Nick Madrigal (1-4), Steele Walker (2-46), Konnor Pilkington (3-81), Lency Delgado (4-108), Jonathan Stiever (5-138)
Also notable: Gunnar Troutwine (9-258), Davis Martin (14-408), Logan Sowers (28-828)

The White Sox focused on safety in this draft, taking college players with their first three picks, five of their first six, and eight of their first ten. Interestingly, they also drafted a lot of teammates, taking three players from the University of Oklahoma and taking two each from Wichita State and Indiana.

1-4: SS Nick Madrigal (my rank: 5)
Skip this part if you've heard it before, but every scouting report about Madrigal will start with his size; he's listed at 5'7", 165 lbs, so he's not only short, but skinny as well. For most guys, that would destroy their draft stock, but the Oregon State second baseman has kept his quite intact with his unreal feel for the barrel. It's the best hit tool not only in this draft, but probably even recent memory, and I'd even put it ahead of 2015 first rounder Kevin Newman, who struck out just 48 times in three years at Arizona. Heading into the College World Series, Madrigal is slashing .397/.463/.567 with three home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 5/14 strikeout to walk ratio, and that's even with a broken wrist sapping some of his power. Most guys his size would have the bat knocked out of their hands by pro pitching, but Madrigal is able to generate plenty of gap power because he finds the sweet spot of the barrel so easily and just gets high quantities of driven balls. Some even find their way over the fence and will continue to in pro ball. He's a very good defender at second base and may actually be able to play shortstop, though we don't know for sure since that spot was manned by defensive wizard and Orioles' CBA pick Cadyn Grenier at OSU. The only downside is the lack of power projection for a top five pick, but with all of his other strengths, that is okay. Jose Altuve and Dustin Pedroia comps are popular because of his size, but I personally see more Daniel Murphy and Keston Hiura in him. Altuve is built like a tank, and Pedroia swings out of his shoes, both unlike the skinny, contact oriented Madrigal. In case you're wondering, five strikeouts in 34 games comes out to a 3.1% rate. He hasn't signed yet due to Oregon State's ongoing College World Series run, but he should sign afterwards and slot value is just over $6.4 million.

2-46: OF Steele Walker (my rank: 37)
I haven't been quite sure what to make of Walker, as he put up a big sophomore year and an even bigger junior year at Oklahoma, but lacks the real tools to project as an impact player at the major league level, but also plays the game hard and is receptive to coaching. It's kind of a weird draft resume that sometimes works and sometimes doesn't. I heard rumors that he could go in the first round, which to me would have been a reach, but he fits well here at pick #46. In 54 games for the Sooners this year, he slashed .352/.441/.606 with 13 home runs and a 48/31 strikeout to walk ratio, doing a little bit of everything at the plate. The bat will have to carry him, as he is really nothing special in the outfield and will likely have to play left at the next level. He lacks a standout tool on offense as well, showing average speed, average power, and good contact ability, though it all plays up because he has a great feel for the game. If you add in the fact that he's old for a college junior and will turn 22 in July, it all adds up to a fourth outfielder projection to me and therefore not a top 50 pick value, but because of the strong makeup, I wouldn't bet against him. He hasn't signed yet, but is likely to and pick value is a little over $1.5 million.

3-81: LHP Konnor Pilkington (my ranking: 66)
The White Sox grabbed Pilkington in the third round, but I get the feeling that it will take close to second round money to sign him. The Mississippi State star was looking like a fringe first round pick coming into the season, but a rough junior year dropped him considerably. The stuff was average, but his very good track record of performance in the SEC (3.08 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 111/47 K/BB as a sophomore in 2017) as well as in the Cape Cod League (1.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33/12 K/BB) had teams very interested. Unfortunately, he was very inconsistent in 2018, heading into the College World Series 2-6 with a 4.56 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 103/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 96.2 innings. His fastball velocity is inconsistent, sometimes sitting around 90 and other times reaching 96, and he should settle into the low 90's in pro ball. His changeup is pretty good, but the slider needs work, and his command isn't good enough to help his stuff play up despite him being a lefty. Interestingly, his command was actually better this year at a 7.3% walk rate versus 10.2% as a sophomore, but his stuff was flatter, allowing him to get hit much more often. I think there is a good chance he ends up as a tweener and never quite makes an impact, but the upside is there considering his past success in tough leagues as well as his youth (he doesn't turn 21 until September, making him more than a year younger than Walker). Like Madrigal, he hasn't signed yet due to his team's ongoing College World Series run.

5-138: RHP Jonathan Stiever (my rank: 94)
Every year, there are always quite a few generic third to fifth round arms floating around college baseball, all of them with average to slightly above average stuff and the ability to command it. This year, those guys were Cal State Fullerton's Colton Eastman, Texas A&M's Mitchell Kilkenny, TCU's Sean Wymer, and Indiana's Jonathan Stiever. Stiever is the ace over in Bloomington, finishing his junior season 5-6 with a 3.41 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 97/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 100 innings. He is a 6'1" righty who throws in the low 90's with sink, and his slider is pretty good as well. His stuff will have to take a step forward in order to crack the major league rotation one day, but he has a good foundation and is a good pick in the fifth round. He was also hit around a bit with a 4.45 ERA on the Cape, but his 25/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 28.1 innings is a good sign. Stiever signed for $386,800, right at slot for the 138th pick.

Others: 4th rounder Lency Delgado was drafted out of a south Florida high school, but he grew up in Havana, Cuba until he was 16. He's a third base prospect with some big power and a strong arm, but he does have work to do. The bat path is a little off, with his hands dropping straight down to the ball before changing direction and exploding up through it; that will need to be smoothed out so his bat can match the plane of the ball. As with most high school picks, he's high risk, but he could be high reward if the White Sox can channel that swing in the right way. 9th rounder Gunnar Troutwine was overshadowed in the Wichita State lineup by first rounder Alec Bohm and second rounder Greyson Jenista, but he is a great player as well. In 55 games, the senior catcher slashed .302/.413/.505 with seven home runs and a 38/34 strikeout to walk ratio. Nothing really stands out as plus for him, but he puts together strong plate discipline, power, and defense to make himself a viable catching prospect. 14th rounder Davis Martin burst onto the scene with a huge freshman season in 2016, going 10-1 with a 2.52 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 61/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 89 innings for Texas Tech, but he hasn't quite matched that since a 2017 shoulder injury. This year, he was 7-5 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP and a 75/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings, showing really well at the beginning of the season but not so well as the season went on. He has a good three pitch mix with a low 90's sinking fastball, a slider, and a changeup, but that stuff has been inconsistent. As a 14th rounder, he'll probably go back to school for his senior year to build up his strength and his draft stock, but pro coaching and distance from his shoulder injury might be just what he needs. 28th rounder Logan Sowers has been a four year star at Indiana, finishing it off with a senior season where he slashed .299/.407/.484 with ten home runs and a 58/37 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games. He's likely a fourth outfielder at best, as he's more of a college performer than a pro prospect. He's also somewhat of a hometown guy from western Indiana and should be fun to watch in the minors given his success in college.

Sunday, June 3, 2018

2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 Second Basemen

Like first basemen, second basemen often come from other positions, typically shortstop. Nick Madrigal easily tops this list, and other shortstops like Xavier Edwards, Jeremiah Jackson, and Osiris Johnson could end up here as well. There is less pressure on the bat here, and many of these guys are scrappy, hard-nosed contact hitters that are fun to watch and easy to root for.

1. Nick Madrigal (Oregon State)
Madrigal is a potential top five pick who is impossible not to like. Standing at just 5'7" and with a skinny build, he merits comparisons to Jose Altuve, but Altuve is more thickly built. Still, he slashed .380/.449/.532 in 60 games as a sophomore last year then took off with a .406/.473/.594 line in 31 games this year despite missing time with a broken wrist. He has exceptional feel for the barrel, perhaps the best in the entire class, having struck out all of five times this entire season and routinely muscling balls into the gaps and even over the fence despite his small frame. In addition to his uncanny ability to find the sweet spot, he can generate his moderate power with a quick swing, and this year, he has lengthened his stride and incorporates the added momentum into his swing very well. His ceiling is limited with his size, but his floor is extremely high and he could start in the majors for a long time.

2. Nico Hoerner (Stanford)
Hoerner is another Pac-12 performer, doing so down the coast at Stanford. The stocky, 5'11" infielder has improved each season, and he has capped it off this year by slashing .351/.396/.498 with nearly as many walks (19) as strikeouts (21). Like Madrigal, he also has a good feel for the barrel, though he won't hit for much power. He is a pretty safe bet to hit at the next level, considering his low strikeout rate and solid Cape Cod League performance this past summer (6 HR, .300/.356/.456), and he should be a good defender at second base, though he plays shortstop right now for the Cardinal. However, the negatives come from that lack of power as well as a low walk rate, one of which will have to improve if he wants to be a productive regular. It's an unexciting profile, but he could still come off the board not long after the close of the first round. Personally though, I think there are better options.

3. Matt McLain (Beckman HS, CA)
McLain's position isn't a done deal yet, as he currently plays shortstop in high school, is listed as a second baseman on Fangraphs, and has tools that really fit at third base, but I'm going to stick him on this list because it is shallow and I want him to get the attention he deserves. He's a skinny guy, but he has whip to his swing that should generate power at the next level, and he has enough feel for the barrel to get to it often. Ultra-athletic, he runs very well and plays the game hard, giving him a good chance to maximize his abilities. He has a wide range of outcomes but is the type of player that could get drafted earlier than you'd expect and sign an under-slot deal if teams aren't scared off by his commitment to UCLA.

4. Tyler Frank (Florida Atlantic)
Frank is another college performer, one who has slashed .310/.450/.573 with 13 home runs and a 34/51 strikeout to walk ratio for the Owls this year. He's a very competent hitter who can do a little bit of everything, showing some power, a lot of patience, and the ability to get on base. His swing isn't the smoothest but it works for him, and he didn't look overmatched in the Cape Cod League. On defense, he can play all over the diamond, but second base is his most likely home if he doesn't become a utility man. He is the kind of player that unexpectedly hits, hits, and hits as you promote him through the minors, a la Austin Hays last year or Harrison Bader before him.

5. Raynel Delgado (Calvary Christian HS, FL)
Delgado isn't in the same class as those above him on this list, but he has a high ceiling at the plate with his big swing and advanced feel. He'll need to clean that swing up a bit, as his head moves to much and could cause him to swing and miss, but enough pro coaching could make him an above average regular. The defense isn't as good, but just the ability to stick in the infield helps his stock. He is committed to Florida International University.

Others: Grant Little (Texas Tech)

Friday, May 11, 2018

2018 Draft Preview: Nick Madrigal

2B Nick Madrigal (Oregon State): 5'7", 160 lbs, born 3/15/1997

Overview

Hit: 70. Power: 40. Run: 60. Throw: 50. Field: 60.

Last year, it was 5'9" San Diego high schooler Nick Allen who had everyone's attention as a standout defensive shortstop with some feel to hit. This year, it's another West Coast Nick who is making a lot of noise for a little guy. Nick Madrigal, who is listed at 5'7" and 160 pounds, has earned comparisons to Jose Altuve for his size and position, but unlike the tank-like Altuve, Madrigal has a skinny build. That said, he hits. As a sophomore, Madrigal slashed .380/.449/.532 with a 16/27 strikeout to walk ratio (5.7% to 9.6%), and as a junior this year, he is up to .449/.488/.590 with a 2/6 strikeout to walk ratio (2.3% to 7%), as of May 9th. That's a lot of production for a little guy, and as a second baseman, it's a lot of value on both sides of the ball. With the success of guys like Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve, Madrigal has a good chance to go in the top five picks.

Strengths

Madrigal's bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel are unrivaled by perhaps anyone in amateur baseball. As of May 9th, he has struck out just twice in 86 plate appearances, but he's not just making weak contact. Because he has such a good feel for the barrel, he is able to make up for his small stature and spray line drives all over the park with regularity. With the quantity of balls he squares up, he does run into a few and can actually hit home runs on occasion, at least with the metal bats; he hit four in 60 games in 2017 and has two so far in 18 games in 2018. Mechanically, he has made strides this year (literally) by gaining more ground with his swing while maintaining that stiff front leg, which helped him put up better power numbers in the small sample size before he broke his wrist. Defensively, he is a well above average second baseman, and some scouts feel he may be able to handle shortstop if he can make his average arm strength play up there.

Weaknesses

Obviously, Madrigal will never be a power hitter. He gets the most out of his frame, but even if he barrels up every baseball, at 160 pounds, he won't be hitting more than ten home runs per season. Additionally, because he makes contact so easily, he hasn't walked much this year, with that walk rate dropping from 9.6% in 2017 to 7% in 2018, something he'll need to improve on based on his on-base oriented profile. Lastly, his power hasn't resurfaced since returning from his broken wrist, but that's natural for wrist injuries and it should return as the season progresses.

Friday, January 5, 2018

2018 Draft: An Early Top 10 Prospect List (1/5/2018)

Aside from a few rumors, there isn't much going on in the world of baseball, so I'm taking some time during this slow Hot Stove period to look over what looks like, for now, the top of the draft. Things will undoubtedly change between now and June, but here are my top ten prospects for now:

1. RHP Brady Singer (University of Florida). MLB.com rank: #1
Right now, Gator ace Brady Singer checks all of the boxes of a 1-1 pick, and there aren't many publications out there that don't have him in the top slot. The 6'5", 180 pound right hander had a big sophomore year with Florida last year, going 9-5 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 126 innings mostly against tough SEC competition. He has an extremely quick arm that produces a hard running, deceptive, low to mid 90's fastball that only figures to get faster as he fills out his lanky frame. His slider is one of the best breaking pitches in the NCAA, as he can manipulate it's shape and speed at will to give hitters a multitude of different looks. On top of it all, he can command everything well and he is said to have great makeup, and looks to have a very good shot at ending up a number two starter if not more. At worst, I think he still cracks the back of a big league rotation. He originally hails from Eustis, Florida, outside of Orlando.
What he can do this spring: Not much. Singer just needs to stay healthy and keep doing what he has been doing, and he'll remain a frontrunner for 1-1.

2. LHP Matthew Liberatore (Mountain Ridge HS, AZ). MLB.com rank: #3
I am a huge fan of Matthew Liberatore, a 6'5" high school left hander out of the Phoenix area. In my four years of following the draft closely, he is the first pitcher to remind me of Clayton Kershaw right off the bat. Liberatore is currently pitchability over stuff, but I can see him having plus stuff when all is said and done, combining the two traits in a similar way to Kershaw. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent, diving changeup well advanced beyond most high schoolers. His curveball isn't quite the pitch his fastball and changeup are, but it has good shape and spin rate, and if he adds power, it will be a third plus pitch. Around it all, like Singer, he has great command. His pitching motion could use some work, as he doesn't quite get all of his momentum going towards the plate, but that's fixable. The similarities with Kershaw are there: handedness, build, stuff (Kershaw throws low 90's as well), command, and even drop and drive pitching mechanics. Kershaw's curve has more power and he also throws an excellent slider, but Liberatore is Kershaw lite. He is committed to the University of Arizona.
What he can do this spring: If he takes a step forward with his curveball while maintaining the rest of his skill set, he could challenge Singer for the 1-1 spot.

3. RHP Ethan Hankins (Forsyth Central HS, GA). MLB.com rank: #2
There aren't many publications that list Ethan Hankins as anything but the top high school pitcher in the country, but his ranking behind Liberatore here speaks more to how much I like Liberatore than anything about Hankins. Hankins is a 6'6" right handed pitcher from high school on the outskirts of the Atlanta suburbs, and he has arguably the most electric arm in this draft. He throws a running mid 90's fastball that hits 98 and could top out at 100 by the time he fills out his frame, and unlike most power high school arms, he can actually control it. Like Liberatore, he also has an advanced changeup, though his biggest area for improvement comes with his two breaking pitches. His curveball and slider both look good at times, and his curveball has especially good shape, but they lack power and are average at this point. All of that together helped him dominate the 18 and Under World Cup this past summer more than any other prospect. If he develops one or both breaking pitches, he could be a top of the rotation starter, but he has a bit of a lower floor should his command unravel, with his realistic floor being that of a power reliever. Hankins is committed to Vanderbilt.
What he can do this spring: Without improving one of his breaking pitches, he probably has a better chance to go in the 3-6 range, but improving either his slider or curveball to plus could make him the first high school right hander ever to go first overall.

4. RHP Casey Mize (Auburn University). MLB.com ranking: #8.
I promise some hitters are coming, but the top of this draft is just filled with great pitchers. Auburn ace Casey Mize lacks the ceiling of those above him on this list, but he has dominated college hitters unlike almost anybody else in the league. In 13 games (12 starts) for the Tigers this past spring, Mize went 8-2 with a 2.04 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 109/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 83.2 innings, mostly against tough SEC hitters. Aside from Singer, Mize might be the most advanced pitcher in this draft, showing excellent command of a mid 90's fastball, a plus splitter, and a very good slider. The 6'3" right hander is a bulldog on the mound, and though he doesn't figure to gain much velocity,  he's excellent where he is now. His whole arsenal, with his command, could play in the major leagues in the very near future, but he has one flaw that causes teams to take a second look; durability. Mize seemed to run out of gas towards the end of the spring collegiate season and was shut down, and when he tried to ramp it back up over the summer, he strained his forearm and had to be shut down again. An optimist could say that professional conditioning regimens could be just what he needs, but the truth is that Mize has not proven that he can handle a 100 inning workload, let alone a 200 inning workload. He has the makings of a mid rotation starter, and if he stays healthy, he is very likely to reach that potential. Mize comes from Springville, Alabama, outside of Birmingham.
What he can do this spring: All Mize needs to to is stay healthy. I have a hard time seeing him go 1-1 no matter what he does due to his lack of a high ceiling, but a healthy Mize who maintains his stuff and velocity all through the spring has a very good chance of going in the top five.

5. 2B/SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State University). MLB.com ranking: #11
Finally, we have the first hitter on our list. The first thing anybody notices about Madrigal is his size: at 5'7" and 160 pounds, he always one of the smallest guys on the field, but Astros second baseman Jose Altuve might be the best thing that ever happened to him. With Altuve proving that little guys can rake, Madrigal's draft stock is much higher than it might have been had he come around a few years earlier. Oregon State was the best team in the country for most of the season, and Madrigal played a huge part in that by slashing .380/.449/.532 with 20 doubles, two triples, four home runs, and 16 stolen bases in 60 games. He also proved to have an excellent approach at the plate, walking 27 times while striking out just 16 times, good for 9.6% and 5.7% of his plate appearances, respectively. Despite his small size, he does have nearly average power, coming from a quick bat that he deploys against a stiff front leg. If he wants to improve that power, he could benefit from gaining more ground with his stride, but a guy his size should maximize his ability to spray line drives around the field, something he does very well. In the field, he's a second baseman right now, though his arm may just be strong enough for shortstop. Either way, he's a very valuable asset, one who should at least hit for average in the major leagues due to his excellent approach. He originally comes from Elk Grove, California, just south of Sacramento.
What he can do this spring: Madrigal likely isn't going to grow any more, so aside from a surprise outburst of power, the best thing Madrigal can do for his draft stock is to keep spraying line drives all over the field and maybe add a few more walks, as 9.6% is good but not amazing.

6. 3B Nolan Gorman (O'Connor HS, AZ). MLB.com ranking: #4
The players who in my opinion are the best high school hitter and best high school pitcher, respectively, in the class, go to school just ten minutes apart in the northern Phoenix suburbs. While Matthew Liberatore will draw scouts by the dozens to Mountain Ridge High School, neighboring Sandra Day O'Connor High School will have it's own share of scouts to see power hitting third baseman Nolan Gorman. At 6'1", Gorman is a bit undersized for a pure power hitter, but the MLB All Star Game High School Home Run Derby champion can blast home runs with the best of them. He has extremely quick hands that help him maximize the power coming from his thick build, though he does sometimes appear uncomfortable at the plate. This has led to worries from scouts as to how his power will translate up, and I myself have noticed that he gets his hands back fairly late, something he'll have to fix against advanced pitching. When your bat is as quick as Gorman's it's often easier to make these adjustments, but it is something to watch. If all goes right, he could hit 30-40 home runs annually in the majors. Like Liberatore, Gorman is committed to the University of Arizona.
What he can do this spring: Gorman needs to show a better approach at the plate, so keeping his strikeouts down and drawing lots of walks would be good for him. A home run off rival Matthew Liberatore would be a nice bonus.

7. OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West HS, WI). MLB.com ranking: #12
Wisconsin isn't typically a hotbed for talent, but they've had a nice run with first rounder Gavin Lux and second rounder Ben Rortvedt in 2016, followed by first rounder Jeren Kendall (Wisconsin native playing at Vanderbilt) in 2017, and finally Jarred Kelenic this year. Kelenic may be a bit old for his class with a July birthday, but he's a five tool player who could contribute in multiple categories at the big league level. He's an excellent pure hitter, using a clean swing to spray line drives and extra base hits all over the field while knocking his share of home runs. He doesn't get fooled at the plate, and he won't need as much time adjusting to the low minors as, for example, a Nolan Gorman-type. He's also a very good defensive outfielder, and while he may not stick in center, he could provide plenty of value in right. If it all breaks right, Kelenic could be an annual 20-20 threat while posting on-base percentages approaching .400. He is committed to the University of Louisville.
What he can do this spring: Kelenic is a great all-around player who doesn't shine in any particular place, so I think the best tool for him to improve this spring would be power. Listed at 6'1" and 195 pounds, he has a wiry, athletic frame that could produce more than the average power he has now. Some big moonshots in front of scouts could push him towards the top five.

8. SS Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA). MLB.com ranking: #7
Southern California native Brice Turang has been a top prospect for years, and he could find himself drafted in the top ten picks in 2018. Like Kelenic, Turang is more of an all-around player than one with standout tools, though he's not exactly the same. First off, he's a shortstop (and a good one at that), and he is faster than Kelenic. On the flip side, his bat isn't quite as developed, as he shows a whippy swing from a lean frame but was up and down over the summer. I like that swing, and I think he could hit for power and average in the majors, but it'll take some work to get there. Turang is committed to Louisiana State.
What he can do this spring: Of primary focus for Turang should be to show more consistency at the plate than he did over the summer. That would solidify his ranking in the top ten. If he does that while adding the power I believe he is capable of adding, he'll jump back into the top five where he was ranked before the summer.

9. SS/3B Nander De Sedas (Montverde Academy, FL). MLB.com ranking: #6
Nander De Sedas is a high school switch hitter with a good balance of above average power and above average contact, and while it's not as certain as with Turang, he could stick at shortstop. De Sedas has a clean swing that enables him to reach that balance, though his mechanics can get a bit inconsistent due to his switch hitting, which is normal for high schoolers. He gets dinged a little bit due to his early birthday, like Kelenic's a July one, but his combination of approach, power, and defensive value isn't easy to come by. If he has to move off shortstop, he does have the arm to stick at third base. De Sedas is committed to Florida State.
What he can do this spring: Two areas where De Sedas could conceivably improve are on defense and with power. If he emerges from the winter having worked hard on improving his range at shortstop, teams can safely draft him as a shortstop and see him as a future Francisco Lindor (who also attended the Montverde Academy), albeit with less speed. Adding power could also help his bat profile better at third base should shortstop not work out, and his plate discipline would make him an attractive alternative to Nolan Gorman.

10. RF Griffin Conine (Duke University). MLB.com ranking: #19
Former Marlins and Orioles star Jeff Conine's son Griffin is looking like one of the top bats in this year's college class. After a forgettable freshman season (0 HR, .205/.306/.247), Conine broke out in a big way by socking 13 home runs and slashing .298/.425/.546 as a sophomore, striking out 45 times while walking 41 times in 58 games. He continued that production over into the prestigious Cape Cod League, where he slashed .329/.406/.537 with nine home runs and a 43/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 42 games, and scouts named him the league's top prospect. I'm personally a huge fan of Conine, as he generates his plus power from a strong 6'1" frame while keeping his bat in the zone for a long time. He could use to add some more loft, but I like the way his swing has come along so far, and doing so could turn him into a legitimate 30+ home run threat. He's a patient hitter, which enabled him to post on-base percentages above .400 in both his predominantly-ACC collegiate season and his Cape Cod season, but he does also swing and miss quite a bit. That's his only flaw on offense. Defensively, he should be a very good right fielder, showcasing more speed than typical for a power hitter as well as a very good arm. To top it off, he's a little younger than the typical college junior, not turning 21 until July. He's originally from the Fort Lauderdale, Florida area.
What he can do this spring: Conine has the power and he's trending in the right direction, so aside from continuing this trend, I think the best thing he can do is to cut down his strikeouts. 16.8% in his collegiate season and 23% in the Cape Cod League aren't astronomically high as they are, but cutting that regular season rate down to 10-15% could do wonders for his draft stock, as teams will be much more confident that he can tap into his raw power.

Just missed: LHP Shane McClanahan (South Florida), LHP Ryan Rolison (Mississippi), RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson), OF Greyson Jenista (Wichita State), OF Travis Swaggerty (South Alabama)