Despite a disappointing rookie year for Justus Sheffield, this is one of the most improved systems in the game, and the Mariners can really thank three players for that. We already knew Evan White was good, and he did take a small step forward with his power, but three guys really exceeded their already high expectations: outfielders Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez and pitcher Logan Gilbert. Those three now look like legitimate stars, while White and guys like Justin Dunn, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, and Cal Raleigh look like they'll be effective contributors as soon as 2020. They also have a nice, strong relief corps in the upper minors between Sam Delaplane, Joey Gerber, Art Warren, Wyatt Mills, and the recently acquired Aaron Fletcher and Taylor Guilbeau, and that's a whole bullpen right there. The system might still be a little shallow in the infield dirt behind White, but the rest of the system is looking a lot better than it did a year ago.
Affiliates: AAA Tacoma Rainiers, AA Arkansas Travelers, High A Modesto Nuts, Class A West Virginia Power, short season Everett AquaSox, rookie level AZL and DSL Mariners
Catcher
- Cal Raleigh (2020 Age: 23): Raleigh was a third round pick out of Florida State in 2018, and a huge first full season meant that he turned out to be more advanced on both sides of the ball than originally anticipated. Skipping over Class A entirely, he slashed .251/.323/.497 with 29 home runs and a 116/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at High A Modesto and AA Arkansas. Raleigh is a switch hitter with a lot of power from both sides of the plate, and while there was some swing and miss in his game in college, he managed to keep the strikeouts reasonably low and get to his power consistently in 2019. Defensively, Raleigh was a bit rough with both the arm and the glove when he entered pro ball, but he's smoothed it out surprisingly quickly and now looks like he'll stay behind the plate. At this point, he looks like he'll be the Mariners' catcher of the future, one who provides most of his value with his bat by hitting 20-25 home runs annually with decent on-base percentages.
- Carter Bins (2020 Age: 21): Bins, an over slot eleventh round pick out of Fresno State in 2019, doesn't quite have the ceiling of Raleigh but he could be a nice backup down the line. In his pro debut, he slashed .208/.391/.357 with seven home runs and a 56/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games at short season Everett, which was about expected given his pre-draft profile. He was a streaky hitter in college and continued to be in pro ball, showing some power and good patience at the plate, though that patience did lead to a high strikeout rate. Bins is also a very good defensive catcher, taking pressure off his bat, and his profiles as the kind of guy who could hit 10-15 home runs annually in the majors with decent on-base percentages he gets more consistent at the plate.
- Keep an eye on: Jose Caguana
Corner Infield
- Evan White (2020 Age: 24): White has an interesting profile as a rare glove-first first baseman. Of course, the Mariners didn't draft him in the middle of the first round out of Kentucky in 2017 without thinking he would be an impact hitter, and the bat has held up in pro ball with a .293/.350/.488 slash line, 18 home runs, and a 92/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games at AA Arkansas in 2019. He came into pro ball with a flat, line drive-oriented swing, but the Mariners got him to start hitting the ball in the air a little more in 2019 and it helped improved his ISO from .153 in 2018 to .195 in 2019 despite moving to a more pitcher-friendly league. That likely will be the difference in him becoming a future impact player for the Mariners, one who can now hit 15-20 home runs annually with high on-base percentages. That would be just a decent projection for a first baseman, except that he's such an exceptional defender around the bag that he'll be a big net-positive on defense. White will likely take over as the starting first baseman in 2020 and he's an early contender for the AL Rookie of the Year Award if he can maintain the strides he's made with his power production.
- Joe Rizzo (2020 Age: 22): Rizzo was a second round pick out of high school a town over from me in Virginia in 2016, so I played against him a few times in high school. Very much a bat-first prospect, he took a few years to get going at the plate while he was pushed aggressively by the Mariners, but he finally started to get it figured out in 2019 when he slashed .295/.354/.423 with ten home runs and a 94/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at High A Modesto. He's a bit undersized at a listed 5'10" (probably a little smaller than that), and it took a little bit for him to tap into his power. That power is more to the gaps than over the fence, and he set a career high with 30 doubles in 2019, and he has a strong enough approach at the plate to make it play up. It will have to, because he's below average at third base and he's too short to play first base. He doesn't turn 22 until right before the start of the season, so he has time to continue to develop, but his future is contingent on maintaining the strides he made at the plate and proving it wasn't a California League mirage.
- Austin Shenton (2020 Age: 22): Shenton may have been a fifth round pick out of Florida International University, but he's every bit of a hometown guy for the Mariners in that he grew up in Bellingham and spent a year at Bellevue Community College before transferring to FIU. He impressed in his pro debut to earn his spot in this writeup, slashing .298/.376/.510 with seven home runs and a 44/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games at short season Everett and Class A West Virginia. A hit over power guy at FIU, he lifted the ball more in pro ball and hit for more power than expected while keeping his strikeout rate at a reasonable level. A third baseman for now, he's fairly mediocre there, so there's a chance he shifts positions to second base or the outfield. If he can keep up the power surge he showed in a small sample in 2019, his bat should profile wherever he ends up.
- Keep an eye on: Jake Scheiner, Bobby Honeyman
Middle Infield
- Donnie Walton (2020 Age: 25-26): Walton, a fifth round pick out of Oklahoma State in 2016, has always hit just enough to stay relevant, but in 2019 he turned it up a notch and hit himself up to the majors. He hit .300/.390/.427 with eleven home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 72/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at AA Arkansas, then hit .188/.316/.188 with a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio in a brief, seven game call-up to the majors. He's not the most physical guy in the lineup at 5'10", but he's hit well due to very strong plate discipline and the ability to hunt his pitch in favorable counts. While that may not lead to a full time starting role, it bodes well for his ability to continue to hit at the major league level. He's a good with the glove but with a fringy arm, he fits better at second base than at shortstop. Expect to see him in the majors in a utility capacity in 2020.
- Joseph Rosa (2020 Age: 23): Rosa was a well-regarded prospect until he hit just .217/.299/.285 in Class A in 2018, but he bounced back nicely in 2019 by slashing .271/.366/.386 with four home runs and a 98/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Class A West Virginia and High A Modesto. Rosa is probably a bit light on tools if he wants to end up a full time starter, but he has a strong enough game across the board, especially with his strong plate discipline, to make it work as a utility infielder down the line. Now that he's started to get things figured out at the plate, he might start to move a little more quickly, too.
- Noelvi Marte (2020 Age: 18): Marte signed for $1.55 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, then had a weirdly streaky pro debut that featured 26 consecutive hitless at bats at one point and a streak of 11 multi hit games in a 15 game stretch at another. Overall, he slashed .309/.371/.511 with nine home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 55/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games in the Dominican Summer League, all at just 17 years old. He's an electric player, one who can hit for power and who got to it consistently in the DSL without striking out too much. He also has easy plus speed that enables him to be a force on the bases, and while it hasn't quite translated to his defensive game yet, it should help him there down the line. Marte is an aggressive hitter who will have to learn to control the strike zone once he starts to face more advanced pitchers, but he also will play all of 2020 at just 18 years old and has plenty of time to figure it out. He's a high ceiling talent for sure, though we don't know where his future lies on the diamond. For now, he's a shortstop and does have the potential to stick there if he gets more consistent.
- Keep an eye on: Jose Caballero, Mike Salvatore, Patrick Frick, Juan Querecuto
Outfield
- Jarred Kelenic (2020 Age: 20-21): Kelenic was on the older side for a high school prospect when he was drafted sixth overall by the Mets out of the Milwaukee area in 2018, turning 19 a month later, but he certainly made up for any perceived lost time by shooting up to AA in his first full season. Acquired from New York as part of the return for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, Kelenic slashed .291/.364/.540 with 23 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 111/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Class A West Virginia, High A Modesto, and AA Arkansas in 2019. Drafted for his advanced bat, he showed more power than anticipated as well, proving to be as complete of an all-around hitter as you can be in your age 19-20 season. Kelenic manages the strike zone very well for his age, had no problem against much older pitching, and tapped into some raw power that could help him hit 20-25 home runs annually at the major league level, with high on-base percentages. He's also a solid defender with a good arm, one who might not be a Gold Glover in center field but who could get the job done there, and his instincts on the bases helped his above average speed play up. He's probably not quite on superstar level, but he's one of the top prospects around at this point as someone who could impact the game in a variety of ways. Given how wide-open the Mariners outfield situation is, Kelenic might even be able to break through to a starting role at some point in 2020.
- Kyle Lewis (2020 Age: 24-25): Lewis was a potential top five pick in the 2016 draft after a massive season at Mercer, and the Mariners were ecstatic when he ultimately fell to them with the eleventh overall pick. However, it's been anything but a smooth ride for the Atlanta-area native as his pro debut was cut short by a bad knee injury that continued to linger into 2017 and even 2018. Fully healthy for perhaps the first time in three years this year, Lewis had his best pro season yet, slashing .263/.342/.398 with eleven home runs and a 152/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at AA Arkansas. Earning a call-up to the Mariners in September, he slashed .268/.293/.592 with six home runs in an excellent 18 game debut, though his 29/3 strikeout to walk ratio was just a bit worrisome. All the lost time from the knee injury probably cut down Lewis' ceiling a bit, but with his plus raw power and quick swing, the last thing for him in his development is really just to lock down the strike zone, which he can get to doing now that he's finally healthy. Controlling the zone will be the key to getting to his power consistently against big league pitching, though it take a little bit for him to figure it out consistently. The Mariners' outfield situation is wide open in 2020, with only Mitch Haniger having a locked down starting spot, and Lewis should have the inside track to earning a starting role out of the gate.
- Jake Fraley (2020 Age: 24-25): Fraley, originally a competitive balance pick out of LSU by the Rays in 2016, came over in the Mike Zunino/Mallex Smith deal a year ago. Fraley hit just .211/.279/.339 in an injury-shortened 2017, but turned it around in another injury-shortened 2018 where he hit .347/.415/.547 in High A. He proved that the turnaround was real in 2019, slashing .298/.365/.545 with 19 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and an 89/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at AA Arkansas and AAA Tacoma, then hit .150/.171/.200 with a 14/0 strikeout to walk ratio in a tough 12 game MLB debut. That power might be a bit of a mirage, as he has never been much of a power hitter before this season and he did spent 38 games in the hitters' heaven of the Pacific Coast League (where he hit eight of his 19 home runs), though he also began to lift the ball a bit more in 2019 and that tells me it's probably not a complete mirage. Fraley makes good, consistent, quality contact when healthy, and he adds great speed that really helped him on both sides of the ball. As I said with Lewis, that's a wide-open outfield situation in Seattle, and I wouldn't call it a stretch to think he could snag a starting spot at some point in 2020. Fraley could hit 10-15 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and some speed, but the big thing will be staying on the field because his 111 games in 2019 came on the heels of playing just a combined 96 from 2017-2018.
- Braden Bishop (2020 Age: 26): Bishop's bat is a bit light, but his glove got him to the majors in 2019 and it will at least keep him hanging around the fringes while he tries to get that bat over the hump. In 2019, he slashed .271/.358/.471 with eight home runs and a 53/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games at High A Modesto and AAA Tacoma, though you do have to take into consideration the hitter-friendly nature of both of those affiliates. He also spent some time with the major league club and slashed .107/.153/.107 with a 21/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 27 games. Bishop isn't a power hitter but does a good job of making consistent contact and using his plus speed to take extra bases when his hits fall into the gaps, and he does have a little over the fence pop when he gets into one. The bat was a bit exposed in his brief time in the majors in 2019, though he's a hard worker and should be able to get his hit tool to work just enough to carve out a fourth or fifth outfielder spot. The calling card is his defense, as he's excellent in center field and at the very least makes for a valuable defensive replacement late in games. In addition, Mariners fans will find Bishop will be easy to root for for a couple of reasons. First off, though he grew up in the San Francisco Bay Area, he's a product of the University of Washington, and secondly, he and his younger brother Hunter (a Giants' 2019 first rounder) run a charity called 4MOM, which works to spread awareness and raise money for Alzheimers research in honor of his late mother.
- Julio Rodriguez (2020 Age: 19): Kelenic's breakout was among the biggest stories on the Seattle farm this year, as it should have been, but it cause another huge breakout to go a bit under the radar. The Mariners signed Julio Rodriguez out of the Dominican Republic for $1.75 million in 2017, then after a successful debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 (.315/.404/.525), they skipped him all the way up to A ball for 2019. Despite the massive jump in competition, playing the season at just 18 years old, and missing time with a fractured hand, Rodriguez passed with flying colors by slashing .326/.390/.540 with 12 home runs and a 76/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games at Class A West Virginia and High A Modesto. He has good raw power from a simple, leveraged right handed swing, and given his age and size (listed 6'4", 225), he should easily add more and end up with true plus power down the road. He also manages the strike zone very well for his age, which enabled him to get up to High A at 18 years old, and that enables him to get to the barrel very consistently and will help him easily tap his power as he gets stronger. Really, there are just two things left for Rodriguez to figure out at the plate, and since he's set to play all of 2020 at 19 years old, he has plenty of time to do it. He needs to start lifting the ball more to get to his power, which should be no problem with his swing, and and he needs to stay within himself consistently at the plate; at times, Rodriguez would pull off the ball and try to do too much, but when he kept everything in line and stayed through the ball, that's when he was at his best. It's a really high ceiling for a really talented player already.
- Keep an eye on: Eric Filia, Dom Thompson-Williams, Cade Marlowe
Starting Pitching
- Logan Gilbert (2020 Age: 22-23): The Mariners drafted Gilbert in the middle of the first round out of Stetson in 2018, but held him out of game action after a long college season. They turned him loose in 2019, and the results were remarkable – Gilbert posted a 2.13 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 165/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 innings at Class A West Virginia, High A Modesto, and AA Arkansas. The Orlando native has a deep arsenal of effective pitches, led by a fastball that added a tick of velocity this year and now sits consistently in the mid 90's. He adds a slider, a curveball, and a changeup, all of which are effective, and the changeup especially took a step forward in pro ball. He also got more consistent with his command, and his 6'6" frame helps give him extra extension and make everything play up. Not that this was unforeseen, as he was an extremely highly regarded draft prospect in 2018, but he's a more complete pitcher than he was at this point a year ago and now looks like he could be a very good #2 starter, perhaps as soon as 2020.
- Justin Dunn (2020 Age: 24): Back in 2016, Dunn went to the Mets in the middle of the first round out of Boston College, but a rough 2017 set him back a bit as a prospect. He bounced back effectively in 2018, re-establishing himself as a top prospect, and he joined Kelenic and others in being shipped to Seattle in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal that offseason. In his new organization in 2019, Dunn posted a 3.55 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 158/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 131.2 innings at AA Arkansas, then reached the majors for a brief cup of coffee, allowing two runs on two hits and nine walks over 6.2 innings, striking out five. One of the better athletes in the system, Dunn sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a slider, a curve, and a changeup, and all are gradually improving. The slider is likely his best weapon at this point, but he has worked hard to make himself into more of a complete pitcher and it shows. He's gotten more consistent with his command, walking just 7.1% of his opponents in AA this year, and I'd be pretty comfortable attributing the high walk rate in his MLB debut to rookie jitters. Overall, he looks like a #3 or a #4 starter who could contribute in 2020.
- Justus Sheffield (2020 Age: 23-24): Given how shallow the Mariners are in starting pitching at the major league level, I'm not going to knock Sheffield to the bullpen just yet, as he does have the inside track to winning a spot in 2020. However, given his struggles with command, I'm not sure how long he'll last there. In 2019, he posted a 4.13 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 133/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 innings at AA Arkansas and AAA Tacoma, as well as a 5.50 ERA and a 37/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 36 major league innings. There's no question about his stuff, which is easily the best in the Mariners' system. He sits in the mid 90's with his ground ball-inducing fastball, adding a power slider that can be an out pitch when located and a changeup that has come along nicely. However, his command is well below average, making his stuff play down across the board, and even at 23 years old he remains much more of a thrower than a pitcher. However, he has shown the ability to throw consistent strikes at times, and he could be just a few small adjustments away from figuring it out and developing into a #2 or #3 starter. However, guys like Gilbert and Dunn have probably passed him on the depth chart, and if he fails to put it together in 2020, he could find himself as an effective lefty fastball/slider reliever.
- Ljay Newsome (2020 Age: 23): As far as I know, there haven't been any major leaguers to come out of Southern Maryland recently, but Ljay Newsome is looking to become the next. A 26th rounder out of high school in 2015, he's worked his way up slowly but broke out in 2019, posting a 3.54 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 169/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 155 innings at High A Modesto, AA Arkansas, and AAA Tacoma. Newsome's carrying tool has always been his pinpoint command, though the rest of his stuff is a bit fringy. His fastball did take a step forward and is now consistently in the low 90's, and he adds a slider, a curve, and a changeup. The slider has some nice, late break, and it's probably his best secondary pitch, but everything really just comes back to his ability to command it. Few minor leaguers can hit their spots like Newsome, and now with his added fastball velocity, he has legitimate aspirations of becoming a #4 starter in the near future. The ceiling is pretty limited, but the floor is pretty high.
- Ricardo Sanchez (2020 Age: 23): Sanchez was originally an Angels prospect but went to the Braves in 2015 for Kyle Kubitza, then got sold to the Mariners after the 2018 season. Always talented, he's faced constant questions about his work ethic that have slowed his development and caused him to be extremely inconsistent throughout his time in the Braves system. He continued to be inconsistent in 2019, but it seems that the change of scenery helped him at least get on the right track. In 2019, he had a 4.44 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 135/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 146 innings at AA Arkansas, getting more consistent with his solid stuff and command while setting a career high in innings by a long shot. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, which has some running life, and he adds a curve and a changeup that can both miss bats when they're on. At present, he's probably a #4/#5 starter, but with the gains it looks like he's made with his work ethic, he could end up as more.
- George Kirby (2020 Age: 22): The Mariners had success with a small school college starter in Logan Gilbert last year, so they grabbed another one in the first round in 2019, taking George Kirby from Elon. Kirby is a pretty similar pitcher to Gilbert, if with a bit lighter stuff and a bit better command, but he's just as good. In his pro debut, he posted a 2.35 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 25/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings at short season Everett, and when you add that to his Cape Cod League and college stats, he had an absurd 156/7 strikeout to walk ratio in 124 innings overall. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds two distinct, effective breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, as well as a changeup. For a command-first type, that's more than enough stuff, and it gives him more upside than you'd expect. There's a very good chance that a year from now, he's in the same spot that Gilbert is now, which is certainly a great place to be.
- Isaiah Campbell (2020 Age: 22-23): Campbell was a top draft prospect as an Arkansas redshirt sophomore in 2018, but he elected to go back to school for his redshirt junior season and the Mariners picked him up in the second competitive balance round in 2019. He didn't pitch in pro ball, but I do really like him as a prospect. He looked really, really good at times earlier in his college career, but he also missed time due to injuries and his command often wavered when he was on the mound, causing his stuff to play down at times. However, he got much more consistent with that command in 2019, causing his stuff to play up instead of down. The stuff isn't really a question, as he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and he gets good downhill plane on that pitch due to his high arm slot. His slider is his next best pitch, and he adds a curveball and a changeup. If he can get more consistent with those last two pitches, now that he's got solid average command, he has a really good shot at becoming a #3 or #4 starter. Even as is, I like his chances of becoming a #4 or a #5, or a power fastball/slider reliever whose stuff can play up from the high arm slot. For draft pick #76, this is great value.
- Brandon Williamson (2020 Age: 22): Williamson went in the second round out of TCU in 2019, then had a strong pro debut with a 2.35 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings at short season Everett. He's a 6'6" lefty who, at his best, can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and add three breaking balls, but both his stuff and his command were inconsistent at TCU. He looked good in that pro debut from both a stuff and a command perspective, but the Mariners have more work to do to get him to looking like that over 150 innings instead of 15. He has #3 starter potential if he does pull it together, but probably ends up in the bullpen if he doesn't.
- Juan Then (2020 Age: 20): Then is a bit of a sleeper, though he's already been traded twice and he's still a teenager – first from Seattle to the Bronx for Nick Rumbelow in 2017, then back to Seattle for Edwin Encarnacion in 2019. This year, he had a 2.98 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 48/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.1 innings between the complex level Arizona League, short season Everett, and Class A West Virginia, as he's been brought along slowly. Though he's just 19, he's actually more about pitchability than pure stuff, showing a low 90's fastball a solid curveball, and a good changeup, which he can mix effectively for someone his age. At a listed 6'1" and 155 pounds, he's got some projection remaining, which he'll need in order to survive the rigors of a longer season – at this point, he hasn't thrown more than 61.1 innings in any of his three. He'll pitch all of 2020 at 20 years old, and with a keen understanding of the game, he just needs to work on sharpening his stuff.
- Sam Carlson (2020 Age: 21): Carlson was drafted in the second round out of a Minneapolis-area high school in 2017, but he's thrown all of just three innings so far. Elbow discomfort cut his pro debut short, and a year later, he underwent Tommy John surgery, which ended his 2018 season and kept him out for all of 2019 as well. The good news is he should be fully healthy by the time spring training roles around, and had he attended Florida instead of going to pro ball, he'd just be entering his junior season anyways, so he's still younger than recent college draftees like George Kirby and Brandon Williamson. When he's healthy, he has three potential plus pitches that he can command in a mid 90's fastball, a great slider, and a great changeup, which gives him the ceiling of a true ace. However, he has everything to prove after three years away from the mound, as he'll have to re-establish his feel for all of his pitches as well as his command. He's probably the biggest wild card in the system.
- Keep an eye on: Max Povse, Anthony Misiewicz, Penn Murfee, Adam Hill, Tim Elliott, Brayan Perez, Levi Stoudt
Relief Pitching
- Sam Delaplane (2020 Age: 25): Delaplane was a 23rd round pick out of Eastern Michigan in 2017, but since then, all he's done is strike out 270 batters in just 161.1 innings. In 2019, he had a 2.23 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 120/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.2 innings at High A Modesto and AA Arkansas, then tossed another 2.2 shutout innings (with five strikeouts) in the Texas League playoffs. Delaplane sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider with average command, but everything plays up because hitters just can't pick up the ball out of his hand. He comes from a high arm slot, almost similar to the Dodgers' Marshall Kasowski, and the ball looks like it's coming out of his ear. So even though it's a middle relief profile with his lack of a true strikeout pitch, he will likely end up as more just because you just can't track his pitches.
- Aaron Fletcher (2020 Age: 24): Fletcher was the Nationals' 14th round pick out of Houston in 2018, then came over in the Hunter Strickland/Roenis Elias deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he posted a 2.09 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and an 84/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.1 innings at Class A, High A, and AA, though he doesn't fit the typical relief profile. The lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider and a decent changeup, but he makes everything play up due to his above average command as well as his ability to be much more pitcher than thrower. He hides the ball well in his deliberate delivery, and the angle he can put on his pitches makes them play up from the left side. Additionally, Fletcher has shown the ability to be effective over multiple innings, and I honestly think he could crack it as a #4 or a #5 starter, but the Mariners seem committed to him as a lefty long reliever.
- Joey Gerber (2020 Age: 22-23): Gerber was an eighth round pick out of Illinois in 2018, and as expected, he's moved quickly through the minors. After reaching Class A in his pro debut, Gerber had a strong first full season in 2019 with a 2.59 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 69/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.2 innings at High A Modesto and AA Arkansas, then added five shutout innings (with six K's and no walks) in the Texas League playoffs. Gerber is a fastball/slider guy that sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and gets good lateral movement on his frisbee slider, and both pitches play up because his funky delivery makes it difficult to pick them up. While his command can be just a bit shaky, he's done a good job of getting his funky delivery under control and keeping a consistent arm slot, which has helped him hit his spots more often than not. He should be in the bigs in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Taylor Guilbeau, Art Warren, Wyatt Mills, Dayeison Arias,
Showing posts with label Justin Dunn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Justin Dunn. Show all posts
Sunday, January 5, 2020
Sunday, December 2, 2018
Mets Acquire Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz
Mets Get
2B Robinson Cano (2019 Age: 36): 10 HR, .303/.374/.471, 0 SB, 136 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR
RHP Edwin Diaz (2019 Age: 25): 0-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 124/17 K/BB, 73.1 IP
$20 million (for Cano's contract)
Mariners Get
OF Jay Bruce (2019 Age: 32): 9 HR, .223/.310/.370, 2 SB, 89 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR
RHP Anthony Swarzak (2019 Age: 33): 0-2, 6.15 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 31/14 K/BB, 26.1 IP
RHP Gerson Bautista (2019 Age: 23-24): 0-1, 12.46 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 3/5 K/BB, 4.1 IP
RHP Justin Dunn (2019 Age: 23): 8-8, 3.59 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 156/52 K/BB, 135.1 IP at High A/AA
OF Jarred Kelenic (2019 Age: 19-20): 6 HR, .286/.371/.468, 15 SB, 124 wRC+ at complex/rookie
There is a lot to unpack in this trade, with core issues being not just player value but contract obligations. Robinson Cano has five years and $120 million left on his contract, and while he'll probably return significant value over the next two years or so, he won't be worth nearly the entire contract. Jay Bruce is owed $26 million over the next two seasons and Anthony Swarzak is owed $8.5 million for 2019, and neither player will likely cover the value of their deals either.
Mets Perspective
I did not like this trade for the Mets at first, but the more I look at it, the more I'm able to stomach it from their perspective. The Mariners will send $20 million along with Cano, making his contract a five year, $100 million commitment for the Mets while also taking $34.5 million more from them in the form of the Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak contracts, though of course they get their potential value to go along with the contracts. Assuming Bruce is worth something like $10-15 million over the next two seasons and Swarzak is worth something around $3 million next year, that excess $17-22 million of saved money over value can be factored into Cano's deal and assume that Cano will now cost them $78-83 million over five years, which is getting close to reasonable. Factor in all the money saved from and Cano's deal ends up adding $65.5 million over the next five years as well as the loss of Bruce's bat and Swarzak's arm. When broken down like that, we can consider Gerson Bautista, Justin Dunn, and Jarred Kelenic to be going over for Diaz, which on its own seems like a light package. Basically, whatever you think of this deal basically boils down to what you think is more important: overpaying for Cano by taking on roughly $80 million in money over value, or underpaying for Diaz by giving up only Bautista, Dunn, and Kelenic. Personally, I don't see this as the greatest deal for the Mets, but it's not as bad as I thought it was originally.
Money aside, Robinson Cano will be a big help for the Mets by providing an above average bat and decent enough defense at second base, at least in the short term. His .303/.374/.471 slash line last season was very good when given the SAFECO Field context, and he can give Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto some badly needed support in the lineup just as Peter Alonso comes up to join in. Back in 2016, he hit 39 home runs while slashing .298/.350/.533, and his decline has not been so steep as to think he can't hit like that for stretches in 2019 and 2020. Ultimately, I think he ends up somewhere around his 2017 numbers (23 HR, .280/.338/.453) for the first couple years in New York, which certainly doesn't justify the contract but that's what Edwin Diaz is for. There is also a very good chance that Cano reaches 3000 hits with the Mets, as he needs just 530 over five years. For his career, the Dominican has 311 home runs, a .304/.355/.493 slash line, and 56.3 fWAR over 2078 games since 2005. For all the talk about Cano, Edwin Diaz is actually the prized get. You can argue that he is the best reliever in the game, having put up a 1.96 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a ridiculous 124/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.1 innings in 2018. He had the same wicked stuff in 2017, but in 2018, the difference was that he could actually command it. When you have a closer who can't be hit and also throws strikes, that's bad news for opposing teams. He's also not a free agent until after the 2022 season, leaving him in Mets pinstripes for up to four years. For his career, the Puerto Rican has a 2.64 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 301/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 188 appearances since 2016.
Mariners Perspective
After dealing James Paxton earlier in the offseason, it looks like the Mariners are getting serious about adding to a farm system that I would argue was the worst in baseball coming into the offseason. Of course, that required them throwing in the towel for short term contention by letting go of two of their biggest stars in Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. They also shed roughly $65.5 million in payroll obligations while getting some very good prospects in return, so while I was on the fence from the Mets' perspective, I like it from the Mariners' side. In terms of the 2019 season, the biggest addition is Jay Bruce for now. Bruce hit 36 home runs and slashed .254/.324/.508 in 2017, but he slumped to .223/.310/.370 with nine home runs in 2018. The bat probably picks back up in 2019, and he'll see time in left field and at DH. The platoon situation will be interesting, as Bruce, left fielder Ben Gamel, and DH Dan Vogelbach are all left handed hitters, with first baseman Ryon Healy being the only right handed hitter in this shuffle. However, Healy is also arguably the best hitter in the group, so it will be hard to justify benching him against right handed pitching in order to get all the lefties into the lineup. My guess is Bruce sees most of his time at DH while Gamel stays in left, with Healy playing most games against right handers but being spelled occasionally by Dan Vogelbach, who loses the most playing time in this scenario. Bruce is under contract for $13 million in both 2019 and 2020, but it's well shy of Cano's annual $24 million obligation. For his career, the Texan has 286 home runs, a .247/.318/.466 slash line, and 20.1 fWAR over 1510 games since 2008. Anthony Swarzak, meanwhile joins the bullpen. He was really good in 2017 (2.33 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 91/22 K/BB in 77.1 IP) but cratered in 2018 (6.15 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 31/14 K/BB in 26.1 IP) as he struggled with nagging injuries all season. If Swarzak can stay healthy, he can be a useful 7th or 8th inning reliever, but he comes with an $8.5 million contract for 2019 that the Mariners will be on the hook for regardless of his health. For his career, the South Florida native has a 4.30 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 433/174 strikeout to walk ratio over 316 games (32 starts) since 2009. Gerson Bautista will also join the bullpen, fresh off making his MLB debut in 2018. He spent the majority of the season at AA Binghamton and AAA Las Vegas, posting an ugly 5.14 ERA and 1.71 WHIP to go along with a very nice 69/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 innings. He can blow the ball by hitters with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a pretty good slider, but he leaves it over the plate and gets hit often. Just 23, he has time to learn the strike zone, but he's probably just a middle reliever unless something drastic changes. The real upside arm that the Mariners will be excited about is Justin Dunn, a Long Island native who is getting traded away from his hometown team. Dunn bounced back from a rough 2017 at High A Port St. Lucie (5.00 ERA, 75/48 K/BB in 95.1 IP) to have a very solid 2018, starting off by posting a 2.36 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings back at St. Lucie. He wasn't quite as effective at AA Binghamton, where he had a 4.22 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings, but he held his own and could be ready for the majors sometime in late 2019. The 23 year old throws hard and is continuing to work on his secondaries and command, and he's athletic enough to make it all work as a starting pitcher. Dunn probably won't be a top of the rotation arm in Seattle, but he has a good shot at becoming a mid-rotation starter in the near future. Lastly, Jarred Kelenic might end up being the prized get for the Mariners. The teenage outfielder was the sixth overall pick in the 2018 draft out of high school in Wisconsin, and the kid already known for his advanced bat decided to slash .413/.451/.609 with a home run, four stolen bases, and an 11/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games in complex ball. Promoted to Kingsport in the rookie level Appalachian League, he slashed .253/.350/.431 with five home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 39/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. He doesn't turn 20 until July but he already shows an advanced feel for both the barrel and the strike zone, good speed, and some power. He obviously has a lot to prove, starting with handling A ball pitching in the spring, but he has legitimate leadoff upside down the road in Seattle.
2B Robinson Cano (2019 Age: 36): 10 HR, .303/.374/.471, 0 SB, 136 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR
RHP Edwin Diaz (2019 Age: 25): 0-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 124/17 K/BB, 73.1 IP
$20 million (for Cano's contract)
Mariners Get
OF Jay Bruce (2019 Age: 32): 9 HR, .223/.310/.370, 2 SB, 89 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR
RHP Anthony Swarzak (2019 Age: 33): 0-2, 6.15 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 31/14 K/BB, 26.1 IP
RHP Gerson Bautista (2019 Age: 23-24): 0-1, 12.46 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 3/5 K/BB, 4.1 IP
RHP Justin Dunn (2019 Age: 23): 8-8, 3.59 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 156/52 K/BB, 135.1 IP at High A/AA
OF Jarred Kelenic (2019 Age: 19-20): 6 HR, .286/.371/.468, 15 SB, 124 wRC+ at complex/rookie
There is a lot to unpack in this trade, with core issues being not just player value but contract obligations. Robinson Cano has five years and $120 million left on his contract, and while he'll probably return significant value over the next two years or so, he won't be worth nearly the entire contract. Jay Bruce is owed $26 million over the next two seasons and Anthony Swarzak is owed $8.5 million for 2019, and neither player will likely cover the value of their deals either.
Mets Perspective
I did not like this trade for the Mets at first, but the more I look at it, the more I'm able to stomach it from their perspective. The Mariners will send $20 million along with Cano, making his contract a five year, $100 million commitment for the Mets while also taking $34.5 million more from them in the form of the Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak contracts, though of course they get their potential value to go along with the contracts. Assuming Bruce is worth something like $10-15 million over the next two seasons and Swarzak is worth something around $3 million next year, that excess $17-22 million of saved money over value can be factored into Cano's deal and assume that Cano will now cost them $78-83 million over five years, which is getting close to reasonable. Factor in all the money saved from and Cano's deal ends up adding $65.5 million over the next five years as well as the loss of Bruce's bat and Swarzak's arm. When broken down like that, we can consider Gerson Bautista, Justin Dunn, and Jarred Kelenic to be going over for Diaz, which on its own seems like a light package. Basically, whatever you think of this deal basically boils down to what you think is more important: overpaying for Cano by taking on roughly $80 million in money over value, or underpaying for Diaz by giving up only Bautista, Dunn, and Kelenic. Personally, I don't see this as the greatest deal for the Mets, but it's not as bad as I thought it was originally.
Money aside, Robinson Cano will be a big help for the Mets by providing an above average bat and decent enough defense at second base, at least in the short term. His .303/.374/.471 slash line last season was very good when given the SAFECO Field context, and he can give Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto some badly needed support in the lineup just as Peter Alonso comes up to join in. Back in 2016, he hit 39 home runs while slashing .298/.350/.533, and his decline has not been so steep as to think he can't hit like that for stretches in 2019 and 2020. Ultimately, I think he ends up somewhere around his 2017 numbers (23 HR, .280/.338/.453) for the first couple years in New York, which certainly doesn't justify the contract but that's what Edwin Diaz is for. There is also a very good chance that Cano reaches 3000 hits with the Mets, as he needs just 530 over five years. For his career, the Dominican has 311 home runs, a .304/.355/.493 slash line, and 56.3 fWAR over 2078 games since 2005. For all the talk about Cano, Edwin Diaz is actually the prized get. You can argue that he is the best reliever in the game, having put up a 1.96 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a ridiculous 124/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.1 innings in 2018. He had the same wicked stuff in 2017, but in 2018, the difference was that he could actually command it. When you have a closer who can't be hit and also throws strikes, that's bad news for opposing teams. He's also not a free agent until after the 2022 season, leaving him in Mets pinstripes for up to four years. For his career, the Puerto Rican has a 2.64 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 301/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 188 appearances since 2016.
Mariners Perspective
After dealing James Paxton earlier in the offseason, it looks like the Mariners are getting serious about adding to a farm system that I would argue was the worst in baseball coming into the offseason. Of course, that required them throwing in the towel for short term contention by letting go of two of their biggest stars in Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. They also shed roughly $65.5 million in payroll obligations while getting some very good prospects in return, so while I was on the fence from the Mets' perspective, I like it from the Mariners' side. In terms of the 2019 season, the biggest addition is Jay Bruce for now. Bruce hit 36 home runs and slashed .254/.324/.508 in 2017, but he slumped to .223/.310/.370 with nine home runs in 2018. The bat probably picks back up in 2019, and he'll see time in left field and at DH. The platoon situation will be interesting, as Bruce, left fielder Ben Gamel, and DH Dan Vogelbach are all left handed hitters, with first baseman Ryon Healy being the only right handed hitter in this shuffle. However, Healy is also arguably the best hitter in the group, so it will be hard to justify benching him against right handed pitching in order to get all the lefties into the lineup. My guess is Bruce sees most of his time at DH while Gamel stays in left, with Healy playing most games against right handers but being spelled occasionally by Dan Vogelbach, who loses the most playing time in this scenario. Bruce is under contract for $13 million in both 2019 and 2020, but it's well shy of Cano's annual $24 million obligation. For his career, the Texan has 286 home runs, a .247/.318/.466 slash line, and 20.1 fWAR over 1510 games since 2008. Anthony Swarzak, meanwhile joins the bullpen. He was really good in 2017 (2.33 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 91/22 K/BB in 77.1 IP) but cratered in 2018 (6.15 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 31/14 K/BB in 26.1 IP) as he struggled with nagging injuries all season. If Swarzak can stay healthy, he can be a useful 7th or 8th inning reliever, but he comes with an $8.5 million contract for 2019 that the Mariners will be on the hook for regardless of his health. For his career, the South Florida native has a 4.30 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 433/174 strikeout to walk ratio over 316 games (32 starts) since 2009. Gerson Bautista will also join the bullpen, fresh off making his MLB debut in 2018. He spent the majority of the season at AA Binghamton and AAA Las Vegas, posting an ugly 5.14 ERA and 1.71 WHIP to go along with a very nice 69/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 innings. He can blow the ball by hitters with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a pretty good slider, but he leaves it over the plate and gets hit often. Just 23, he has time to learn the strike zone, but he's probably just a middle reliever unless something drastic changes. The real upside arm that the Mariners will be excited about is Justin Dunn, a Long Island native who is getting traded away from his hometown team. Dunn bounced back from a rough 2017 at High A Port St. Lucie (5.00 ERA, 75/48 K/BB in 95.1 IP) to have a very solid 2018, starting off by posting a 2.36 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings back at St. Lucie. He wasn't quite as effective at AA Binghamton, where he had a 4.22 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings, but he held his own and could be ready for the majors sometime in late 2019. The 23 year old throws hard and is continuing to work on his secondaries and command, and he's athletic enough to make it all work as a starting pitcher. Dunn probably won't be a top of the rotation arm in Seattle, but he has a good shot at becoming a mid-rotation starter in the near future. Lastly, Jarred Kelenic might end up being the prized get for the Mariners. The teenage outfielder was the sixth overall pick in the 2018 draft out of high school in Wisconsin, and the kid already known for his advanced bat decided to slash .413/.451/.609 with a home run, four stolen bases, and an 11/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games in complex ball. Promoted to Kingsport in the rookie level Appalachian League, he slashed .253/.350/.431 with five home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 39/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. He doesn't turn 20 until July but he already shows an advanced feel for both the barrel and the strike zone, good speed, and some power. He obviously has a lot to prove, starting with handling A ball pitching in the spring, but he has legitimate leadoff upside down the road in Seattle.
Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Ten Prospects Who Improved Their Stock in 2018
These 10 prospects, in no particular order, have improved their stock tremendously in 2018. Some of them might have already been well-regarded and others may have popped out of nowhere, but if you enjoy getting an early look at the future of the game, these are ten names you should absolutely familiarize yourself with.
**Juan Soto, despite beginning the season as a prospect, will not be included on this list because he has exceeded rookie limits at the major league level. Even though he came into the season as arguably the Nationals' second best prospect behind Victor Robles, with 14 home runs and a .303/.421/.542 slash line as a 19 year old, he has exceeded even the wildest of expectations.
3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays, Age 19)
18 HR, .400/.454/.681, 3 SB, 32/30 K/BB, 208 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 3 at GCL, 1 at High A, 61 at AA, 12 at AAA
Vladimir Guerrero's son entered the season already considered one of the top prospects in baseball, coming off a 2017 where he slashed .323/.425/.485 with 13 home runs and an excellent 62/76 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Class A Lansing and High A Dunedin, playing the entire season at 18 years old. However, in 2018, he has gone from potential superstar to likely superstar, which is a huge jump. In 77 games between AA New Hampshire, AAA Buffalo, and rehab work, his slash line is an incredible .400/.454/.681, as he has clobbered 18 home runs and struck out 32 times to 30 walks. The kid is nearly half a year younger than Juan Soto and is absolutely obliterating the high minors, including an unfathomable .395/.489/.763 line, four home runs (all in consecutive games), and a tremendous 4/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games since his promotion to AAA. His defense is coming along, and while he's not Nolan Arenado at third base, he has worked hard to be serviceable there and that work ethic spreads to the rest of his game. Even if you're just a casual fan, you should learn his name; he has the potential to be every bit as good as his Hall of Fame dad. Junior has tremendous power, tremendous plate discipline, and the work ethic to get the most out of it. I can see him hitting 30+ home runs per season with an on-base percentage above .400.
SS Wander Franco (Rays, Age 17)
8 HR, .367/.423/.606, 4 SB, 14/18 K/BB, 164 wRC+
Game Breakdown: All 45 in rookie level Appalachian League
If you have heard the name before, you might be thinking of his brother, Wander Franco, a prospect in the Giants organization. Or his other brother, Wander Franco, also a prospect in the Giants organization. His dad is also named Wander Franco. It's a little weird. Anyways, now that that's out of the way, this Wander Franco was already well regarded before the season, signing for a $3.85 million bonus (about what a mid-first round pick would sign for) out of the Dominican Republic and rating as the top prospect in the international class. However, his minor league debut has been one of the best in history for a 17 year old, as he started off in the rookie level Appalachian League (two levels higher than where most kids his age begin their careers), and he is absolutely crushing it. Through 45 games in a league where you typically see 21 year old college players beginning their careers, Franco is slashing .367/.423/.606 with eight home runs and more walks (18) than strikeouts (14) despite being born in the year 2001 (feel old yet?). The combination of power and average is great, but what really stands out to me is the plate discipline. A 9% walk rate isn't particularly high, but his 7% strikeout rate is minuscule for any player, especially for a literal kid playing with people quite a few years older than him while also hitting for power. He plays shortstop right now and while he may move off the position, he also may stay there, which would give him the potential to be both an impact bat and an impact glove at the same time. Obviously, he's a long way off, but you can't start your career any better than this.
LHP Jesus Luzardo (A's, Age 20)
10-4, 2.30 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 122/25 K/BB, 101.2 IP
Game Breakdown: 3 starts in High A, 16 in AA, 2 in AAA
Luzardo was a well regarded high school arm coming out of Stoneman Douglas High School in 2016, and upon returning from Tommy John surgery in mid 2017, he looked great over 43.1 innings, going 2-1 with a 1.66 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio. Those numbers are all great, but they were all in the low minors and he had plenty to prove in 2018. Well, he started at High A Stockton and posted a 1.23 ERA and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over three starts, quickly earning a promotion to AA Midland. There, he was excellent in 16 starts, going 7-3 with a 2.29 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 86/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.2 innings, earning another promotion, this one to AAA Nashville at just 20 years old. He has made two starts there, striking out eleven and walking only two over 8.1 innings but also allowing four runs. Over the course of the season, he has not only proven he is healthy by throwing 101.2 innings, but also that his stuff can play up against upper level minor leaguers right now, and the major leagues are just around the corner.
RHP Chris Paddack (Padres, Age 22)
7-2, 1.91 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 114/7 K/BB, 85 IP
Game Breakdown: 10 starts in High A, 6 in AA
The emergence of Paddack, in my opinion, is enough to tip the scale from the Braves to the Padres for the best farm system in baseball. Paddack was off to a fantastic start at Class A in 2016, posting a 0.85 ERA over nine starts, but he went down with Tommy John and not only missed the rest of the season, but all of 2017 as well. Fully healthy for 2018, the Padres started off the 22 year old at High A Lake Elsinore in the notoriously hitter-friendly California League, but he was unfazed by the environment; In ten starts, he went 4-1 with a 2.24 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a straight up ridiculous 83/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 52.1 innings. Promoted to AA San Antonio, in July, he has been just as good, if not better, through six starts; 3-1, 1.38 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 31/3 K/BB in 32.2 innings. The strikeout rate dropped a little from the ridiculous 40.9% rate he had in High A to a more reasonable 27% in AA, while the walk rate stayed virtually the same (2% up to 2.6%). Despite the high strikeout rate, the stuff is more good than great, and he really makes his living by locating it around the zone. It won't cause him to rack up the strikeouts in the majors, but it's enough to keep minor league hitters swinging through pitches and it will help him be a fine mid rotation or back-end starter in the majors. Really, the biggest thing about this season was supposed to be about proving he was healthy, but he has done much more than that. Through his minor league career, he is now 13-5 with a 1.72 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and a 224/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 172.2 innings.
RHP Justin Dunn (Mets, Age 22)
7-7, 2.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 128/39 K/BB, 114 IP
Game Breakdown: 9 starts in High A, 11 in AA
Dunn was taken 19th overall out of Boston College in 2016 on the heels of a breakout junior year, and although he continued that success into a strong pro debut in the New York-Penn League that year (1.50 ERA, 35/10 K/BB), he struggled big time in his promotion to High A Port St. Lucie in 2017. Over 20 games (16 starts) in his first full pro season, Dunn went 5-6 with a 5.00 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 75/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings, even seeing his season end early due to shoulder fatigue in August. The most troubling thing about the season was his strikeout rate; inconsistency in his secondary pitches led to an uncharacteristically low 17.3% strikeout rate, which isn't good for a fireballing first rounder. He began 2018 back in High A, but the results were different; in nine starts, he went 2-3 with a 2.36 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 45.2 innings, bumping that strikeout rate up to 25.9% and watching his walk rate fall from 11.1% to 7.6%. Upon his promotion to AA Binghamton, it was more of the same, as he went 5-4 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP while racking up 77 strikeouts against 24 walks in 68.1 innings (27.4% to 8.5%). The increased consistency in his stuff his huge; while it obviously helped him be more successful across two important minor league levels, it shows a clear step forward from his more raw college days and his rough 2017. The stuff has always been there when he has been at his best; now that he has proven that he can maintain his best stuff, the risk he ends up in the bullpen is much lower and his shot at being a mid-rotation starter or better in New York has improved.
1B Nathaniel Lowe (Rays, Age 23)
25 HR, .349/.436/.602, 1 SB, 70/61 K/BB, 191 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 51 at High A, 50 at AA, 6 at AAA
Coming into the season, Lowe was a fringe prospect who was a fine hitter in the mid minors, but who didn't quite show enough power for a first baseman and who would probably get lost in the shuffle if he didn't do something soon. Well, he did something. He began at High A Charlotte, the same place he finished last year (and where he slashed .249/.355/.353), but was much better; after 51 games, he was slashing .356/.432/.588 with 10 home runs and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to AA Montgomery, he kept on hitting. Through 50 games, he slashed .342/.446/.610 with 13 home runs and a 30/35 strikeout to walk ratio. Recently, he was bumped up again, this time to AAA Durham, where he is slashing .346/.393/.654 with a pair of home runs and a 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio over six games. He has not only shown the ability to hit for power, but also average and plate discipline. Bumping up his walk rate from 11.4% to 15.6% and dropping his strikeout rate from 15% to 13.4% between High A and AA is an especially good sign, showing that he can control the strike zone against advanced pitching, which bodes well for major league success. He entered the season as a fringe prospect, but now he may be the first baseman of the future in Tampa.
C Ronaldo Hernandez (Rays, Age 20)
18 HR, .286/.339/.499, 9 SB, 61/26 K/BB, 133 wRC+
Game Breakdown: All 95 at Class A
Catching prospects are hard to come by, so whenever one shows the ability to hit, they immediately become extremely valuable. Hernandez didn't pop out of nowhere; as a 19 year old in the rookie level Appalachian League last year, he slashed .332/.382/.507 with five home runs over 54 games. However, plenty of guys hit over somewhat small samples in rookie ball and struggle to translate it up. That's why his success this year, including a .286/.339/.499 line and 18 home runs in 95 games, is so important. Class A is a big jump up from the Appalachian League, and by maintaining his success over a larger sample, he has proven that the bat is for real. The 61/26 strikeout to walk ratio isn't excellent but it isn't bad either, and just proving that he is a catcher who can hit is enough to bump his stock up considerably. He has a long way still to go, but he's just 20 and he's right on track.
RHP Luis Patino (Padres, Age 18)
5-3, 2.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 86/20 K/BB, 71.2 IP
Game Breakdown: All 15 starts in Class A
Patino was an electric arm coming out of Colombia, and success in his complex level (lowest minor league level) debut in 2017 (2.25 ERA, 58/18 K/BB) was a nice indicator. Like Hernandez, Class A was set to be the first real test, and he has passed with flying colors at two years younger than Hernandez. Through 15 starts for Fort Wayne, he is 5-3 with a 2.39 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, striking out 86 and walking 20 in 71.2 innings despite not turning 19 until October. For an 18 year old, a 30% strikeout rate against a 7% walk rate will do. While the strikeout rate is impressive, I'm more impressed by the low walk rate, just because of his young age as well as because of the advanced competition he is facing in the Midwest League. At this rate, he could be in AA before his 20th birthday and could be in the majors before he can drink, which is saying a lot for the kid who began in the Dominican Summer League just last season.
SS Isaac Paredes (Tigers, Age 19)
13 HR, .267/.344/.444, 2 SB, 66/40 K/BB, 123 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 84 in High A, 21 in AA
Paredes is another young guy who is proving himself based on holding his own against much older competition. Beginning the season at High A Lakeland, he slashed .259/.338/.455 with 12 home runs and a 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games, showing a little bit of plate discipline, power, and defense. Promoted to AA at just 19 years old, he has continued producing, slashing .303/.372/.394 with a home run and a 12/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games. It's a small sample so I won't fault him for the slight decrease in power, but it's really nice to see both the strikeout rate (15.6% in High A to 15.4% in AA) and the walk rate (9.2% to 10.3%) hold up with the promotion. Young players who can control the strike zone against advanced pitching have a great chance of maintaining that production as they move up, and Paredes could be in the major leagues next season at just 20 years old.
SS Gavin Lux (Dodgers, Age 20)
13 HR, .327/.396/.521, 12 SB, 76/45 K/BB, 148 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 88 at High A, 9 at AA
High school bats, especially from the north (Lux is from Wisconsin), often take some time to develop, and Lux really broke out in 2018. After a so-so season at Class A Great Lakes in 2017, where he slashed an uninspiring .244/.331/.362 with a respectable 88/56 strikeout to walk ratio as a teenager, 2018 has been a different story. The bat developed at High A Rancho Cucamonga, where he slashed .324/.396/.520 with 11 home runs and a 68/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games, earning a recent promotion to AA Tulsa. The jump from Rancho Cucamonga to Tulsa is a big one, as Rancho Cucamonga is in the extremely hitter-friendly California League and Tulsa skews a bit more pitcher friendly, on top of the large jump from one level to the next. However, through nine games, he is showing no signs of slowing down, slashing .359/.390/.538 with a pair of home runs and an 8/2 strikeout to walk ratio. In all, Lux is a 20 year old bat that took his prospect status from "project with a high ceiling" to "AA hitter who is fulfilling his promise and is not too far from a major league opportunity." Throw in his 12 stolen bases this year and his ability to play shortstop, and the Dodgers have something special.
Others: Taylor Ward (Angels), Touki Toussaint (Braves), William Contreras (Braves), Bruce Zimmerman (Orioles), Bobby Dalbec (Red Sox)
**Juan Soto, despite beginning the season as a prospect, will not be included on this list because he has exceeded rookie limits at the major league level. Even though he came into the season as arguably the Nationals' second best prospect behind Victor Robles, with 14 home runs and a .303/.421/.542 slash line as a 19 year old, he has exceeded even the wildest of expectations.
3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays, Age 19)
18 HR, .400/.454/.681, 3 SB, 32/30 K/BB, 208 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 3 at GCL, 1 at High A, 61 at AA, 12 at AAA
Vladimir Guerrero's son entered the season already considered one of the top prospects in baseball, coming off a 2017 where he slashed .323/.425/.485 with 13 home runs and an excellent 62/76 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Class A Lansing and High A Dunedin, playing the entire season at 18 years old. However, in 2018, he has gone from potential superstar to likely superstar, which is a huge jump. In 77 games between AA New Hampshire, AAA Buffalo, and rehab work, his slash line is an incredible .400/.454/.681, as he has clobbered 18 home runs and struck out 32 times to 30 walks. The kid is nearly half a year younger than Juan Soto and is absolutely obliterating the high minors, including an unfathomable .395/.489/.763 line, four home runs (all in consecutive games), and a tremendous 4/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games since his promotion to AAA. His defense is coming along, and while he's not Nolan Arenado at third base, he has worked hard to be serviceable there and that work ethic spreads to the rest of his game. Even if you're just a casual fan, you should learn his name; he has the potential to be every bit as good as his Hall of Fame dad. Junior has tremendous power, tremendous plate discipline, and the work ethic to get the most out of it. I can see him hitting 30+ home runs per season with an on-base percentage above .400.
SS Wander Franco (Rays, Age 17)
8 HR, .367/.423/.606, 4 SB, 14/18 K/BB, 164 wRC+
Game Breakdown: All 45 in rookie level Appalachian League
If you have heard the name before, you might be thinking of his brother, Wander Franco, a prospect in the Giants organization. Or his other brother, Wander Franco, also a prospect in the Giants organization. His dad is also named Wander Franco. It's a little weird. Anyways, now that that's out of the way, this Wander Franco was already well regarded before the season, signing for a $3.85 million bonus (about what a mid-first round pick would sign for) out of the Dominican Republic and rating as the top prospect in the international class. However, his minor league debut has been one of the best in history for a 17 year old, as he started off in the rookie level Appalachian League (two levels higher than where most kids his age begin their careers), and he is absolutely crushing it. Through 45 games in a league where you typically see 21 year old college players beginning their careers, Franco is slashing .367/.423/.606 with eight home runs and more walks (18) than strikeouts (14) despite being born in the year 2001 (feel old yet?). The combination of power and average is great, but what really stands out to me is the plate discipline. A 9% walk rate isn't particularly high, but his 7% strikeout rate is minuscule for any player, especially for a literal kid playing with people quite a few years older than him while also hitting for power. He plays shortstop right now and while he may move off the position, he also may stay there, which would give him the potential to be both an impact bat and an impact glove at the same time. Obviously, he's a long way off, but you can't start your career any better than this.
LHP Jesus Luzardo (A's, Age 20)
10-4, 2.30 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 122/25 K/BB, 101.2 IP
Game Breakdown: 3 starts in High A, 16 in AA, 2 in AAA
Luzardo was a well regarded high school arm coming out of Stoneman Douglas High School in 2016, and upon returning from Tommy John surgery in mid 2017, he looked great over 43.1 innings, going 2-1 with a 1.66 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio. Those numbers are all great, but they were all in the low minors and he had plenty to prove in 2018. Well, he started at High A Stockton and posted a 1.23 ERA and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over three starts, quickly earning a promotion to AA Midland. There, he was excellent in 16 starts, going 7-3 with a 2.29 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 86/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.2 innings, earning another promotion, this one to AAA Nashville at just 20 years old. He has made two starts there, striking out eleven and walking only two over 8.1 innings but also allowing four runs. Over the course of the season, he has not only proven he is healthy by throwing 101.2 innings, but also that his stuff can play up against upper level minor leaguers right now, and the major leagues are just around the corner.
RHP Chris Paddack (Padres, Age 22)
7-2, 1.91 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 114/7 K/BB, 85 IP
Game Breakdown: 10 starts in High A, 6 in AA
The emergence of Paddack, in my opinion, is enough to tip the scale from the Braves to the Padres for the best farm system in baseball. Paddack was off to a fantastic start at Class A in 2016, posting a 0.85 ERA over nine starts, but he went down with Tommy John and not only missed the rest of the season, but all of 2017 as well. Fully healthy for 2018, the Padres started off the 22 year old at High A Lake Elsinore in the notoriously hitter-friendly California League, but he was unfazed by the environment; In ten starts, he went 4-1 with a 2.24 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a straight up ridiculous 83/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 52.1 innings. Promoted to AA San Antonio, in July, he has been just as good, if not better, through six starts; 3-1, 1.38 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 31/3 K/BB in 32.2 innings. The strikeout rate dropped a little from the ridiculous 40.9% rate he had in High A to a more reasonable 27% in AA, while the walk rate stayed virtually the same (2% up to 2.6%). Despite the high strikeout rate, the stuff is more good than great, and he really makes his living by locating it around the zone. It won't cause him to rack up the strikeouts in the majors, but it's enough to keep minor league hitters swinging through pitches and it will help him be a fine mid rotation or back-end starter in the majors. Really, the biggest thing about this season was supposed to be about proving he was healthy, but he has done much more than that. Through his minor league career, he is now 13-5 with a 1.72 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and a 224/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 172.2 innings.
RHP Justin Dunn (Mets, Age 22)
7-7, 2.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 128/39 K/BB, 114 IP
Game Breakdown: 9 starts in High A, 11 in AA
Dunn was taken 19th overall out of Boston College in 2016 on the heels of a breakout junior year, and although he continued that success into a strong pro debut in the New York-Penn League that year (1.50 ERA, 35/10 K/BB), he struggled big time in his promotion to High A Port St. Lucie in 2017. Over 20 games (16 starts) in his first full pro season, Dunn went 5-6 with a 5.00 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 75/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings, even seeing his season end early due to shoulder fatigue in August. The most troubling thing about the season was his strikeout rate; inconsistency in his secondary pitches led to an uncharacteristically low 17.3% strikeout rate, which isn't good for a fireballing first rounder. He began 2018 back in High A, but the results were different; in nine starts, he went 2-3 with a 2.36 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 45.2 innings, bumping that strikeout rate up to 25.9% and watching his walk rate fall from 11.1% to 7.6%. Upon his promotion to AA Binghamton, it was more of the same, as he went 5-4 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP while racking up 77 strikeouts against 24 walks in 68.1 innings (27.4% to 8.5%). The increased consistency in his stuff his huge; while it obviously helped him be more successful across two important minor league levels, it shows a clear step forward from his more raw college days and his rough 2017. The stuff has always been there when he has been at his best; now that he has proven that he can maintain his best stuff, the risk he ends up in the bullpen is much lower and his shot at being a mid-rotation starter or better in New York has improved.
1B Nathaniel Lowe (Rays, Age 23)
25 HR, .349/.436/.602, 1 SB, 70/61 K/BB, 191 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 51 at High A, 50 at AA, 6 at AAA
Coming into the season, Lowe was a fringe prospect who was a fine hitter in the mid minors, but who didn't quite show enough power for a first baseman and who would probably get lost in the shuffle if he didn't do something soon. Well, he did something. He began at High A Charlotte, the same place he finished last year (and where he slashed .249/.355/.353), but was much better; after 51 games, he was slashing .356/.432/.588 with 10 home runs and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to AA Montgomery, he kept on hitting. Through 50 games, he slashed .342/.446/.610 with 13 home runs and a 30/35 strikeout to walk ratio. Recently, he was bumped up again, this time to AAA Durham, where he is slashing .346/.393/.654 with a pair of home runs and a 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio over six games. He has not only shown the ability to hit for power, but also average and plate discipline. Bumping up his walk rate from 11.4% to 15.6% and dropping his strikeout rate from 15% to 13.4% between High A and AA is an especially good sign, showing that he can control the strike zone against advanced pitching, which bodes well for major league success. He entered the season as a fringe prospect, but now he may be the first baseman of the future in Tampa.
C Ronaldo Hernandez (Rays, Age 20)
18 HR, .286/.339/.499, 9 SB, 61/26 K/BB, 133 wRC+
Game Breakdown: All 95 at Class A
Catching prospects are hard to come by, so whenever one shows the ability to hit, they immediately become extremely valuable. Hernandez didn't pop out of nowhere; as a 19 year old in the rookie level Appalachian League last year, he slashed .332/.382/.507 with five home runs over 54 games. However, plenty of guys hit over somewhat small samples in rookie ball and struggle to translate it up. That's why his success this year, including a .286/.339/.499 line and 18 home runs in 95 games, is so important. Class A is a big jump up from the Appalachian League, and by maintaining his success over a larger sample, he has proven that the bat is for real. The 61/26 strikeout to walk ratio isn't excellent but it isn't bad either, and just proving that he is a catcher who can hit is enough to bump his stock up considerably. He has a long way still to go, but he's just 20 and he's right on track.
RHP Luis Patino (Padres, Age 18)
5-3, 2.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 86/20 K/BB, 71.2 IP
Game Breakdown: All 15 starts in Class A
Patino was an electric arm coming out of Colombia, and success in his complex level (lowest minor league level) debut in 2017 (2.25 ERA, 58/18 K/BB) was a nice indicator. Like Hernandez, Class A was set to be the first real test, and he has passed with flying colors at two years younger than Hernandez. Through 15 starts for Fort Wayne, he is 5-3 with a 2.39 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, striking out 86 and walking 20 in 71.2 innings despite not turning 19 until October. For an 18 year old, a 30% strikeout rate against a 7% walk rate will do. While the strikeout rate is impressive, I'm more impressed by the low walk rate, just because of his young age as well as because of the advanced competition he is facing in the Midwest League. At this rate, he could be in AA before his 20th birthday and could be in the majors before he can drink, which is saying a lot for the kid who began in the Dominican Summer League just last season.
SS Isaac Paredes (Tigers, Age 19)
13 HR, .267/.344/.444, 2 SB, 66/40 K/BB, 123 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 84 in High A, 21 in AA
Paredes is another young guy who is proving himself based on holding his own against much older competition. Beginning the season at High A Lakeland, he slashed .259/.338/.455 with 12 home runs and a 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games, showing a little bit of plate discipline, power, and defense. Promoted to AA at just 19 years old, he has continued producing, slashing .303/.372/.394 with a home run and a 12/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games. It's a small sample so I won't fault him for the slight decrease in power, but it's really nice to see both the strikeout rate (15.6% in High A to 15.4% in AA) and the walk rate (9.2% to 10.3%) hold up with the promotion. Young players who can control the strike zone against advanced pitching have a great chance of maintaining that production as they move up, and Paredes could be in the major leagues next season at just 20 years old.
SS Gavin Lux (Dodgers, Age 20)
13 HR, .327/.396/.521, 12 SB, 76/45 K/BB, 148 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 88 at High A, 9 at AA
High school bats, especially from the north (Lux is from Wisconsin), often take some time to develop, and Lux really broke out in 2018. After a so-so season at Class A Great Lakes in 2017, where he slashed an uninspiring .244/.331/.362 with a respectable 88/56 strikeout to walk ratio as a teenager, 2018 has been a different story. The bat developed at High A Rancho Cucamonga, where he slashed .324/.396/.520 with 11 home runs and a 68/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games, earning a recent promotion to AA Tulsa. The jump from Rancho Cucamonga to Tulsa is a big one, as Rancho Cucamonga is in the extremely hitter-friendly California League and Tulsa skews a bit more pitcher friendly, on top of the large jump from one level to the next. However, through nine games, he is showing no signs of slowing down, slashing .359/.390/.538 with a pair of home runs and an 8/2 strikeout to walk ratio. In all, Lux is a 20 year old bat that took his prospect status from "project with a high ceiling" to "AA hitter who is fulfilling his promise and is not too far from a major league opportunity." Throw in his 12 stolen bases this year and his ability to play shortstop, and the Dodgers have something special.
Others: Taylor Ward (Angels), Touki Toussaint (Braves), William Contreras (Braves), Bruce Zimmerman (Orioles), Bobby Dalbec (Red Sox)
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