First 5 rounds: Cole Winn (1-15), Owen White (2-55), Jonathan Ornelas (3-91), Mason Englert (4-119), Jayce Easley (5-149)
Also notable: Jax Biggers (8-239), Cameron Simmons (15-449), Austin Becker (37-1109)
The Rangers have never been a team to gravitate towards safe picks, so the five straight high school picks at the top of the draft make sense. They love high ceiling, athletic players, and while first rounder Cole Winn doesn't fit that mold when compared to other high schoolers, their other picks do and this was a typical Rangers draft, if a bit pitching heavy with three of their first four and five of their first seven picks being pitchers. They got good value, too, which is tough to do when you're only taking high schoolers.
1-15: RHP Cole Winn (my rank: 9)
Winn began the season as a player likely go to in the 25-40 range, but a big spring pushed him way up into the top half of the first round on most boards. The 6'2" righty is from Colorado but transferred to national powerhouse Orange Lutheran HS in Southern California to get more exposure, and it paid off. Winn throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, adding a very good slider and a good changeup, all of which he commands well for a high schooler. His stuff doesn't scream top half of the first round on paper, but he maintains it deep into starts and his feel for pitching is considered to be very good. His delivery is clean, and I had a good gut feeling about him before his rapid rise in the spring; he simply knows how to get the job done at a young age. Winn signed for $3.15 million, which is $588,500 below slot.
2-55: RHP Owen White (my rank: 54)
If Winn wasn't your typical Rangers pick in that he's more polish over stuff, White is just the opposite. The 6'3" righty from high school a little ways outside of Charlotte, North Carolina is all stuff and no polish. At his best, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, throws a tight curve, a hard slider, and a good changeup that all together make a very good, deep arsenal that would be able to keep hitters off balance late into games. Those are the positives. On the flip side, he doesn't always have his best stuff, and even when he does, he typically fades during his starts and it's not his best anymore once the middle innings roll around. He throws with effort as well, which combined with the lack of consistency and longevity within starts would look to point him towards a future in the bullpen. With his deep arsenal, though, the Rangers will try to fix his inefficiencies and mold him into a high end starter. It's a risky pick, but it could pay off big time if everything breaks right. White signed for $1.25 million, which is $7500 below slot.
3-91: SS Jonathan Ornelas (my rank: 57)
I really like this pick for the Rangers. Ornelas, a high schooler out of the Phoenix area, is a high ceiling shortstop with a lot of plusses and a lot of minuses. He has a long, whippy swing from the right side that already generates tons more power than you would expect from a skinny six footer, and with that skinny frame, he should grow into additional power as he matures. Because the swing is long, he sometimes struggles with contact, though I'd expect him to make just enough to tap that power consistently. While he's not a defensive whiz, he looks to have a decent chance to stick at shortstop depending on who tries to push him off the position in the Texas system, though he should end up as a good defensive third baseman if he doesn't stick at short. It's a risky profile, but for the third round, I think Ornelas offers very good upside with enough of a chance to reach it that it's more than worth gambling on. He signed for $622,800, right at slot value. Through eight games in the rookie level Arizona League, he is slashing .233/.343/.400 with a home run, seven stolen bases, and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio, though the sample is so small that none of it really means much.
4-119: RHP Mason Englert (unranked)
I didn't get a chance to rank Englert before the draft, though he likely would have cracked my top 100 if I had. He's a hometown guy, attending high school in Forney, Texas, right on the eastern edge of the Dallas/Forth Worth metro. Englert is a 6'4" righty with a low 90's fastball with sinking action, and he also throws a slider, curve, and changeup. None stand out as plus, though the slider has good break and the curve has good shape. With an easy delivery and enough present control to make it all play up, he profiles as a starter at the major league level, though he'll obviously have to earn his way up and make adjustments along the way. He signed for an even $1 million, which is $535,300 above slot.
Others: 8th rounder Jax Biggers, aside from having the best baseball name since Jeter Downs, played shortstop for Arkansas. He was better as a sophomore (.338/.423/.498, 4 HR, 30/30 K/BB) than as a junior (.280/.388/.382, 4 HR, 31/38 K/BB), though he was playing through a broken finger on his left hand this year. With average all around tools, he profiles as a utility infielder, but the plate discipline is great and should help him reach that floor. On top of that, the grit he showed in both hitting and playing defense with that broken left index finger is certainly a positive. 15th rounder Cameron Simmons is unlikely to sign, but I see him emerging as one of the top senior draft prospects in the 2019 draft. The UVA outfielder had a huge sophomore season in 2017 (.352/.432/.563, 9 HR, 40/23 K/BB) before missing the entire 2018 season with a shoulder injury. When I saw him play during that sophomore season, he actually looked like a top 50 pick, showing all five tools and just looking smooth doing it all. Anybody who knows me knows that as Virginia Tech student, I'm not too fond of UVA, but I'm looking forward to seeing what a healthy Simmons does next season. 37th rounder Austin Becker almost certainly doesn't sign, as he had the talent to go in the top 100 picks but looks set on attending Vanderbilt. The Columbus, Ohio area high schooler is a 6'6" righty that ranked 85th on my list and throws low to mid 90's with an inconsistent curveball and a changeup with some run. He pitched well on the showcase circuit with that curveball flashing plus often, but his command got away from him in the spring as he struggled to find his release point consistently, and his stock dropped. Hopefully, the Vanderbilt coaching staff can clean him up and make him a first round pick in 2021.
Showing posts with label Jonathan Ornelas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jonathan Ornelas. Show all posts
Saturday, June 30, 2018
Sunday, June 3, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 Shortstops
Many shortstops end up moving off the position, but if they can stay there, their bats get a lot of slack and they can become extremely valuable players with just a little bit of offensive ability. This year's crop is extremely high school heavy, with the top five all coming from the prep ranks and the top college prospect being likely second or third rounder Cadyn Grenier. As usual, there is a lot of upside here.
1. Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA)
Turang is one of the tougher players to project in this year's draft. Entering his junior year of high school, he was an early favorite to go first overall in 2018, but his stock slipped with an unremarkable performance in the summer after that junior season and good but not great performance this spring. He still projects as a first round pick, potentially even approaching the top half of the round, due to his broad skill set including his feel to hit, possible power projection, and ability to play shortstop. Though he's very skinny, he has a whippy swing, and while I don't see him becoming a power hitter, his feel for the barrel should help him get to his power enough to where he hits 15 home runs per season. He has an advanced approach at the plate and runs very well, and when you combine that with good defense at shortstop, you have a guy that can set the table for the lineup. If he can regain the magic he had earlier in his high school career, he could be an All Star. He's committed to LSU.
2. Xavier Edwards (North Broward Prep, FL)
Edwards isn't as likely to stick at shortstop as Turang, but he's faster and can nearly match Turang's hitting ability. Despite being a switch hitter, he employs a very good approach at the plate and is a safer bet than most high schoolers to hit for high on-base percentages at the next level. Power is harder to project with high school switch hitters because their swings are often raw, and while Edwards won't hit 20 home runs in a season, there is enough power in that swing that he should hit plenty of doubles and triples in the majors. His excellent speed helps him get to everything at shortstop, but there is risk that he moves to second base if his arm doesn't improve. He is committed to Vanderbilt and is rumored to be a tough sign, though as a likely first round pick, it's hard to envision him attending college.
3. Jeremiah Jackson (St. Luke's Episcopal HS, AL)
Jackson is another player who risks not being able to stay at shortstop long term, but his bat is trending in the right direction. After a mediocre showing on the summer showcase circuit, he showed up for his senior year of high school with glasses and has seen his hitting improve tremendously, though there is worry that it could be an illusion as he faces inferior Mobile-area opponents. He employs an all-fields approach which has worked very well for him this spring, employing a long stride and quick hands to drive the ball to the gaps. He could start to hit for more power as he gets stronger, and if he can improve his defense at shortstop, he's got his ticket to the majors. However, he doesn't have the best reaction time out there, and may end up at second base. He's committed to Mississippi State.
4. Jonathan Ornelas (Kellis HS, AZ)
Ornelas is a fast rising prospect this spring, using his big swing and hard-nosed style of play to grow his ceiling. If he can make contact at an adequate rate, he could be a candidate to blast 20+ home runs per season, and when you combine that with his good defense and the ability to stick at shortstop, he's got a lot going for him. The only thing knocking him down is the volatility of his bat, as contact may be an issue at the next level, and while he generates a lot of power for his size, he's a skinny guy at 6' 165, and it's not true plus power. He should go in the second round and is committed to Tennessee.
5. Osiris Johnson (Encinal HS, CA)
Johnson is a very similar player to Ornelas, with the only real difference being that he's not as likely to stay at shortstop. He too has a big, powerful swing with at least some ability to make contact, and he has performed better and better as the high school season has gone on. He's also extremely young for a high school senior, not turning 18 until October, which buys him some slack if he doesn't develop immediately. His cousin is Jimmy Rollins, and he is committed to Cal State Fullerton.
Others: Cadyn Grenier (Oregon State), Blaze Alexander (IMG Academy), Jeremy Pena (Maine)
1. Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA)
Turang is one of the tougher players to project in this year's draft. Entering his junior year of high school, he was an early favorite to go first overall in 2018, but his stock slipped with an unremarkable performance in the summer after that junior season and good but not great performance this spring. He still projects as a first round pick, potentially even approaching the top half of the round, due to his broad skill set including his feel to hit, possible power projection, and ability to play shortstop. Though he's very skinny, he has a whippy swing, and while I don't see him becoming a power hitter, his feel for the barrel should help him get to his power enough to where he hits 15 home runs per season. He has an advanced approach at the plate and runs very well, and when you combine that with good defense at shortstop, you have a guy that can set the table for the lineup. If he can regain the magic he had earlier in his high school career, he could be an All Star. He's committed to LSU.
2. Xavier Edwards (North Broward Prep, FL)
Edwards isn't as likely to stick at shortstop as Turang, but he's faster and can nearly match Turang's hitting ability. Despite being a switch hitter, he employs a very good approach at the plate and is a safer bet than most high schoolers to hit for high on-base percentages at the next level. Power is harder to project with high school switch hitters because their swings are often raw, and while Edwards won't hit 20 home runs in a season, there is enough power in that swing that he should hit plenty of doubles and triples in the majors. His excellent speed helps him get to everything at shortstop, but there is risk that he moves to second base if his arm doesn't improve. He is committed to Vanderbilt and is rumored to be a tough sign, though as a likely first round pick, it's hard to envision him attending college.
3. Jeremiah Jackson (St. Luke's Episcopal HS, AL)
Jackson is another player who risks not being able to stay at shortstop long term, but his bat is trending in the right direction. After a mediocre showing on the summer showcase circuit, he showed up for his senior year of high school with glasses and has seen his hitting improve tremendously, though there is worry that it could be an illusion as he faces inferior Mobile-area opponents. He employs an all-fields approach which has worked very well for him this spring, employing a long stride and quick hands to drive the ball to the gaps. He could start to hit for more power as he gets stronger, and if he can improve his defense at shortstop, he's got his ticket to the majors. However, he doesn't have the best reaction time out there, and may end up at second base. He's committed to Mississippi State.
4. Jonathan Ornelas (Kellis HS, AZ)
Ornelas is a fast rising prospect this spring, using his big swing and hard-nosed style of play to grow his ceiling. If he can make contact at an adequate rate, he could be a candidate to blast 20+ home runs per season, and when you combine that with his good defense and the ability to stick at shortstop, he's got a lot going for him. The only thing knocking him down is the volatility of his bat, as contact may be an issue at the next level, and while he generates a lot of power for his size, he's a skinny guy at 6' 165, and it's not true plus power. He should go in the second round and is committed to Tennessee.
5. Osiris Johnson (Encinal HS, CA)
Johnson is a very similar player to Ornelas, with the only real difference being that he's not as likely to stay at shortstop. He too has a big, powerful swing with at least some ability to make contact, and he has performed better and better as the high school season has gone on. He's also extremely young for a high school senior, not turning 18 until October, which buys him some slack if he doesn't develop immediately. His cousin is Jimmy Rollins, and he is committed to Cal State Fullerton.
Others: Cadyn Grenier (Oregon State), Blaze Alexander (IMG Academy), Jeremy Pena (Maine)
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