2022 MLB Draft Review: San Diego Padres

Full list of draftees

The Padres went all in on pitching early, grabbing who they likely see as the two best high school arms in the entire class with their first two picks in Dylan Lesko and Robby Snelling. After grabbing a college arm in Adam Mazur in the second round, they bet big again with a fourth consecutive arm in Henry Williams, who like Lesko is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. The bats in this class were a little more diverse in terms of skill sets, between the excellent hit tools of Nathan Martorella, Jakob Marsee, Nick Vogt, and Graham Pauley and the big time power of Lamar King Jr. and Griffin Doersching. It's a uniquely Padres class with all the high upside high school talent, hoping to give a jolt to a system that lost a boatload of talent just a few weeks later in the Juan Soto trade.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-15: RHP Dylan Lesko, Buford HS [GA]. My rank: #11.
Slot value: $4.09 million. Signing bonus: $3.9 million ($185,000 below slot value).
The Padres started off this draft with a bang, grabbing the guy who for much of the spring was considered the best pitcher in the class, period. Dylan Lesko has been one of the most famous names in the 2022 high school class for a few years now, and he pitched like it this spring to seemingly cement himself in the top ten picks (well, as cemented as a high school right hander can be). Unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery in April, and there were some points where it looked like he might make it to campus at Vanderbilt. The Padres ensured that would not happen by taking him fifteenth overall, so he was still the first high school pitcher drafted, and surprisingly got him to sign slightly below slot value. Lesko is an extremely well rounded pitcher with few weaknesses. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, getting into the upper 90's more and more regularly. He adds two breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, though he throws the curveball more and while it isn't quite a plus pitch yet, its big spin rates and strong shape help it project to be a plus pitch in time. The Atlanta-area native finishes off his arsenal with a plus-plus changeup that is his best pitch right now, diving down out of the zone when he throws it low and still showing good fading action when he misses up. All together, the 6'2" righty has projection remaining and should continue add power to his already nasty stuff, and he's a very good mover on the mound that gets good extension and repeats his delivery well. He hits his spots consistently and has every chance to become an ace, with a high likelihood that he's at least a mid-rotation starter.

CBA-39: LHP Robby Snelling, McQueen HS [NV]. My rank: #43.
Slot value: $2 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($995,500 above slot value).
Robby Snelling had plenty of interest throughout the back half of the first round, but as prep pitchers tend to do, he slid down the board to the Padres in the competitive balance round and signed for a million dollars above slot value, roughly the value of the 24th pick. Considered more of a third or fourth round guy entering the season, Snelling had an extremely loud spring and rocketed up boards, with some considering him possibly the best lefty in the class. He didn't rank quite that high on my list, but it's a very loud profile. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has gotten up to 96 this spring, getting some ride on the pitch as well. His bread and butter is his curveball, a plus pitch that dives across the zone late and has missed a ton of bats. There's some aptitude for a changeup, but it's all about the fastball and really the curveball for now. The 6'3" lefty comes across his body to create tough angle on his pitches, going right after hitters and filling up the strike zone well. He commands his curveball extremely well for a high school pitcher, something that really stands out to me when I watch him pitch and should help him rack up strikeouts in pro ball. The Reno native is also a very good athlete, packing a ton of strength into that 6'3" frame and getting down the mound well, though he doesn't have a ton of projection left. He had been committed to LSU but will now have a chance to push through the system.

2-53: RHP Adam Mazur, Iowa. My rank: #55.
Slot value: $1.44 million. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($190,600 below slot value).
Adam Mazur has a fun profile and has been a steady riser for some time now. He originally enrolled at South Dakota State, but pitched very well in the Cape Cod League last summer (1.55 ERA, 34/6 K/BB in 29 IP) and transferred to a data-driven Iowa program this spring. The results were strong, as after holding a 5.50 ERA over two years in Brookings, he dropped it to 3.07 in Iowa City along with a 98/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.2 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has been up to 97, getting nice hop on the pitch. His nasty, plus slider has deep bite and functions as his main out pitch, while he also adds a curveball and changeup that look like big league pitches as well. The 6'4" righty still has projection remaining and is steadily learning to repeat his delivery better, leading to improved command throughout his time in college, and he even got better in that regard throughout the 2022 season to the point where it's now average. He has an uptempo delivery, but because of his projection, deep arsenal, and improving mechanics/command, he projects well as a #2 or #3 starter. Really my only qualm with the profile is a bit of a lower 26.1% strikeout rate this spring despite pitching for a progressive program, but otherwise it's an increasingly complete profile here.

3-91: RHP Henry Williams, Duke. My rank: #115.
Slot value: $680,400. Signing bonus: $800,000 ($119,600 above slot value).
Henry Williams is another injured pitcher the Padres are taking a chance on, but he has much less track record and requires much more projection than Dylan Lesko despite being two years older. Williams made just one appearance for Duke in the shortened 2020 season then showed well in 2021, posting a 3.65 ERA and a 45/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 innings while missing some time with injuries. He showed extremely well in fall practice, but again went down with arm soreness and in December, that turned into Tommy John surgery. That said, this is how you get a potential ace for just $800,000. The Connecticut native sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but he was up to 95 in the fall as the velocity slowly crept up. He's flashed some plus sliders at times, though it needs more consistency, and there is some feel for a changeup. You're buying the projection here, as Williams is a 6'5" beanpole with a ton of room to fill out and he's very young for a college junior to boot, not turning 21 until September. He's extremely athletic on the mound, with a very loose delivery that lends itself well to throwing strikes, and he puts high spin rates on all his stuff that give it extra hop and projection. This is the kind of profile that takes off if things break right. Now Tommy John aside, there are still massive durability questions here, as Williams will have gone through his three years of college throwing 0.2, 37, and zero innings, respectively, all before missing time yet again before his Tommy John. He needs to get a lot stronger to stick in the rotation, which could also mean his stuff takes a massive step forward as he fills out. The Padres are fully bought into that happening, and I'll be very interested to follow along.

4-120: C Lamar King Jr., Calvert Hall HS [MD]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $502,800. Signing bonus: $502,800.
The Padres finally picked a position player here with their fifth pick, going for an upside play in Lamar King Jr. King is the son of former NFL defensive end Lamar King, and he looks like an NFL player's son with a big, strong, 6'3" frame. That strength helps generate above average raw power that could become plus in time as he irons out his swing, as he has a fairly stiff operation for now that might cost him some pop. You help him get his arms extended more consistently, and he could end up sending the ball impressive distances. His power is ahead of his hit tool for now, but he does take pretty good at bats and recognizes pitches fairly well. I think with more refinement in the Padres system, the Baltimore-area native has a chance to get to a fringe average or even an average hit tool. He's a solid defender behind the plate and moves very well for his size, helping him use that big frame block balls in the dirt. High school catchers are notoriously difficult to develop and King has a lot of work to do, but the upside here is a starting catcher that can blast 20+ home runs a year and that's worth a $500,000 gamble. King was in a great position, as he could have attended the catching factory that is Georgia Tech.

5-150: 1B Nathan Martorella, California. My rank: #192.
Slot value: $375,500. Signing bonus: $325,000 ($50,500 below slot value).
Nathan Martorella brings a little bit of an unusual profile as a hit-over-power first baseman, but it's an interesting one. He didn't hit much over his first two seasons at Cal, but broke out in 2022 to slash .333/.424/.553 with eleven home runs and a 29/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. He takes short, simple hacks in the batters box with the goal of spraying hard line drives around the field, rarely looking to do too much. With a stocky build at 6'1", 225 pounds, he translates his compact strength into a high frequency of hard hit balls, finding the barrel extremely consistently with a keen eye at the plate and a very patient approach. Martorella a first baseman only, so the pressure will be on his bat. The power isn't quite where you want it for a first baseman, but given his knack for barreling the ball and hitting it hard, he could tap average power if he begins to lift the ball more. The Salinas (Monterey County) native could move relatively quickly through a thinned out Padres system, with a ceiling of 15-20 home runs a year and high on-base percentages. So far through five games in the Arizona Complex League, Martorella has two singles and two walks.

7-210: OF Nick Vogt, UC Santa Barbara. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $224,300. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($24,300 below slot value).
Nick Vogt gives the Padres another Californian as a guy who can contribute in a lot of ways even if he doesn't have a true carrying tool. After performing poorly over his first two seasons at UC Santa Barbara, like Nathan Martorella he broke out in 2022 to slash .317/.405/.541 with seven home runs and a 39/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He has long arms and uses them to spray hard line drives around the field with regularity, with enough raw power in the tank to leave the yard when he gets those arms extended. He's a disciplined hitter that makes a lot of contact, helping him get on base at better than a .400 clip this spring. The Central Valley native out of Davis is also a solid runner that has a chance to stick in center field, which would dramatically increase his value as a potential fourth outfielder. Whether he reaches that ceiling hinges on his ability to handle breaking balls, as multiple sources noted that he was a much better hitter against high velocity fastballs than quality breaking balls. If he can, this is a very productive fourth outfield profile. He is hitless through his first six at bats in the Arizona Complex League.

8-240: 1B Griffin Doersching, Oklahoma State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $180,900. Signing bonus: $25,000 ($155,900 below slot value).
At just $25,000, this pick has a chance to be one of the best bargains of the draft. That tends to happen when you're nearly 24 on draft day, older than guys like Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Doersching played four years at Northern Kentucky, where he bashed 47 home runs in 161 career games and slashed .316/.488/.772 as a senior, then transferred to Oklahoma State this spring and continued to rake to the tune of a .296/.407/.673 slash line, 15 home runs, and a 51/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games. He has absolutely massive raw power, as evidenced by this allegedly 513 foot home run against Texas Tech that left the stadium over the scoreboard. It's effortless power, too, as the 6'4", 250 pound hulk of a human being just flings the barrel at the ball with a simple, direct swing, and the ball just jumps off his bat like he loaded it with TNT. He does come with swing and miss concerns, running a 26.3% strikeout rate in 2022 that was well up from the 16.1% mark he put together in his senior year at NKU against weaker competition. Even though he rarely swings out of his shoes, he still has below average bat to ball skills and regularly chases, so the transition to pro ball will be a steep one. Given that I'm writing this on his 24th birthday (HBD Griffin), he doesn't have much time to figure it out. He's limited to first base defensively, so he'll have to tap that power in pro ball to move up. With his power, tattoos, and long blonde hair, the Milwaukee-area product can quickly become one of the Padres' more recognizable prospects and could become a power hitting platoon bat in the near future. He's already off to a hot start in the Arizona Complex League (albeit where he is much older than his competition), slashing .400/.538/.800 with just two strikeouts through five games.

11-330: RHP Isaiah Lowe, Combine Academy [NC]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($275,000 against bonus pool).
The Padres made one more big splurge to open up day three, signing Isaiah Lowe away from a Wake Forest commitment for fifth round money. Lowe showed scattered command and inconsistent stuff over the summer, but was a much more complete pitcher this spring. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out around 94, adding a sweeping slider that looks above average at its best as well as an improving changeup that could also be an above average pitch. The 6'1" righty has a strong lower half and gets deep into his glutes during his delivery, putting flat plane on his fastball while also aiding in the shape of his slider, which relies more on horizontal movement than vertical movement. After regularly coming off line and losing his arm slot over the summer, he repeated his delivery better this spring and showed better command because of it, giving him the chance to stick as a starter. The North Carolina native is extremely old for a high schooler, having turned 19 back in May, but the Padres were more than happy with his progress this spring and think he can catch up quickly. There is not a ton of projection in his frame, though he could stand to add a few ticks to his fastball which is currently average velocity-wise. If he can get more consistently 92-94 than the 90-91 he sits now, that flat plane could really make it play up.

12-360: LHP Austin Krob, Texas Christian. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Austin Krob spent a year at Kirkwood JC in Iowa before transferring to TCU in 2020, then showed well over his first two years in Fort Worth and looked like a mid day two pick. Instead, he opted to bet on himself and returned to campus for his senior season, which unfortunately did not go quite as planned as he finished with a 5.12 ERA and a 45/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, missing a month and a half with injury. Krob ran a solid 31% strikeout rate in 2022, but figures to be more of a crafty lefty that should fit somewhere between a back-end starter and a long reliever in pro ball. His fastball sits in the low 90's, touching 95, while his sweeping slider is his best pitch and helps him miss bats. He also adds in an average curveball and an above average changeup, though his stuff wasn't always at its crispest this spring as he battled those injuries. The 6'3" lefty comes from a low three quarters slot that helps his stuff play east-west, giving hitters and especially left handed hitters a unique look that can make for a very difficult at bat when he's locating. The command has looked above average at times, and if he can hold that, he has a chance to reach his ceiling as a back-end starter. If not, or if he doesn't prove durable enough to handle 150+ innings a year, his stuff could tick up in relief and he could ditch the curveball to focus on his best pitches.

2022 MLB Draft: One potential hometown pick for every AL/NL Central Team

This is the second installment in the three part hometown pick series, following the AL and NL West (you can now find the AL/NL East here). If you've followed me for any amount of time, you probably know that I love a good hometown pick. Over the offseason, I recreated all thirty teams if they only used players from their "home turf," and last year I practiced this same exercise for the draft. Last year, the central divisions actually followed along somewhat, with the Royals taking both Carter Jensen (Park Hill HS) and Ben Kudrna (Blue Valley Southwest HS) out of the Kansas City area and the Brewers drafting Oak Creek native Alex Binelas out of Louisville, though they lost their good standing by almost immediately trading him to Boston. With that, let's look at some hometown pick options for the AL and NL Central.

Chicago Cubs: 3B Estevan Moreno, Montini Catholic HS, Lombard, IL
Hometown: Hanover Park, IL. My rank: #95.
Two years ago, the Cubs drafted shortstop Ed Howard out of Mount Carmel HS on the South Side, and they'll have plenty of opportunities to do it again this year. Their #7 overall pick is probably a little bit too early to grab Oswego native Noah Schultz, who figures to go somewhere in the middle to back of the first round if signable, but head a little bit north and east and you have Hanover Park's Estevan Moreno, who is having a strong spring at Montini Catholic HS in Lombard. I'm a big fan of Moreno, who could fit somewhere in the third to fifth round range for the Cubs if they want to keep him home rather than let him move on to Notre Dame for school. He does a lot of things well at the plate, using an all fields approach that effectively helps him put barrel to baseball with regularity. Come into his wheelhouse, though, and there is plenty of strength in his 6'2" to really turn on the ball, and the hope is that in time, he'll learn to spread that power out to all fields. That would create a very favorable offensive profile combining power and a professional approach if it works out. There isn't as much upside on the defensive side, as he's an average athlete that can handle third base for now but will have to work to stay there rather than move to first base or an outfield corner. Moreno is a smart, driven kid that loves baseball and should thrive in a competitive environment in pro ball.
Other options: LHP Noah Schultz (Oswego East HS, IL), OF Clark Elliott (Michigan via Barrington, IL), RHP Owen Murphy (Riverside-Brookfield HS, Riverside, IL), OF Ryan Cermak (Illinois State via Riverside, IL), RHP AJ Izzi (Oswego East HS, IL)

Chicago White Sox: OF Ryan Cermak, Illinois State.
Hometown: Riverside, IL. My rank: #71.
I strongly considered Oswego East HS lefty Noah Schultz here, but even though the White Sox broke their streak of staying on the college side with Indiana high schooler Colson Montgomery last year, I think Schultz might be a hair too risky for them as a high school pitcher coming off a bout with mono. I honestly think he still has a decent chance of ending up on the South Side, but instead I'll go with Illinois State breakout star Ryan Cermak. Cermak attended Riverside-Brookfield High School just west of the Chicago city limits, then after hitting .284/.349/.553 as a sophomore but running up a 25.1% strikeout rate, he has improved significantly in all three slash categories this spring while dropping that strikeout rate. Though he's four inches shorter, he reminds me of Cincinnati's Joey Wiemer a few years ago as a super athlete from a mid-major Midwestern school with tools all over the place. Cermak has plus raw power that he has tapped very consistently against MVC pitching this spring, effectively channeling some moving parts in his load into a very simple, compact right handed swing. He's very aggressive at the plate but he has been at least a little more disciplined this spring, lending hope to an average hit tool. Given his immense athleticism, you may not be surprised to learn he's a plus runner with a plus arm that could be an asset in center field going forward. This seems to be a profile the White Sox could like, maybe not in the first round at pick #26 but potentially in the second round at pick #62 or in the third round at #101 if he slides a bit.
Other options: LHP Noah Schultz (Oswego East HS, IL), SS Ryan Ritter (Kentucky via Tinley Park, IL), 3B/RHP Jack Brannigan (Notre Dame via Orland Park, IL), RHP AJ Izzi (Oswego East HS, IL), LHP Cole Kirschsieper (Illinois via Frankfort, IL)

Cincinnati Reds: RHP Jacob Miller, Liberty Union HS, Baltimore, OH
Hometown: Baltimore, OH. My rank: #55.
The Reds love their prep bats, but there are none on my radar in that Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana area. They haven't drafted and signed a high school pitcher in any round since Lyon Richardson and Yomil Maysonet in 2018 (a year after Hunter Greene), but with five of the first 94 picks, they have some extra money to play around with and they have two really good options in their extended backyard. I took a good, hard look at Indianapolis righty Andrew Dutkanych, a personal favorite of mine, but ultimately decided to stay in state with another rising righty in Jacob Miller. Miller attends Liberty Union High School in Baltimore, a small Fairfield County town about half an hour southwest of Columbus, where he has been turning heads with a strong spring. Miller has a powerful right arm, sitting in the low to mid 90's and hitting 97 with his fastball, but he makes his money with a wicked curveball that ranks among the best in the class. He also adds a solid slider and changeup, giving him a full arsenal to succeed as a starting pitcher. The 6'2" righty fills up the strike zone well and has a sturdy frame, furthering that starter projection. Miller wasn't quite as consistent later in his high school season and does need to shore up his in-zone command a bit, but it's a very enticing profile for the Reds' picks at #32, #55, and #73. With a Louisville commitment in hand, he's likely to be very expensive at pick #73 and would still likely require an over slot bonus at #55, but Cincinnati has the money if they want to go that route.
Other options: RHP Andrew Dutkanych (Brebeuf Jesuit HS, IN), OF Alec Sayre (Wright State via Dover, OH), C Dalton Rushing (Louisville via Brighton, TN), 3B Ben Metzinger (Louisville via Louisville, KY), RHP Jared Poland (Louisville via Fishers, IN)

Cleveland Guardians: RHP Mack Anglin, Clemson
Hometown: Marengo, OH. My rank: unranked.
The Guardians like college arms and high school bats. There aren't any big name prep bats in Northern Ohio that I know of (and only one position player, Medina's Luke Raley, from Northern Ohio even appeared in an MLB game in 2021), so we'll go with a college arm. In 2021, Cleveland drafted a whole host of college arms that had gone unselected in the 2020 draft for one reason or another, including with five of their first eight picks, and in this case I have them doing that again in 2022. Mack Anglin could have gone somewhere in the middle of day two had he been signable, but ultimately opted to head back to Clemson and bet on himself. Anglin grew up in the tiny Central Ohio town of Marengo, home to 342 residents between Columbus and Mansfield on I-71, then headed south to Clemson for college. He flashed some of the nastiest pure stuff in the ACC last spring, when he struck out 75 batters over 56.1 innings as a draft-eligible sophomore, but he bet on himself and headed back to school. This year has been more or less much of the same, so if Cleveland wants to bring him back home, he probably figures once more somewhere in the middle of day two. Anglin runs his fastball into the mid 90's but stands out the most for his ability to spin the ball. His curveball is a plus pitch with vicious spin rates and his slider is a distinct, above average pitch in its own right, giving him numerous big league out pitches with which to attack hitters. Unfortunately, his command has been below average throughout his career and with a high effort delivery and a fringy changeup, he looks ticketed to the bullpen. Given how much starting pitching depth Cleveland has in the minors, they can stomach that and hope his stuff can take yet another step forward in the bullpen. I'd be really interested to see how that plays in short stints.
Other options: RHP Jacob Miller (Liberty Union HS, Baltimore, OH), 3B Zach Dezenzo (Ohio State via Alliance, OH), SS Phillip Glasser (Indiana via Tallmadge, OH), LHP Drake Batcho (Florida International via Warren, OH), SS Cole Young (North Allegheny HS, Wexford, PA)

Detroit Tigers: RHP Brock Porter, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI
Hometown: Milford, MI. My rank: #19.
I strongly considered having some fun and giving the Tigers Porter's battery mate Ike Irish, but ultimately, this was a match made in heaven and could really happen. The Tigers love young, hard throwing pitchers and have a history of drafting them from Beau Burrows to Jackson Jobe. Brock Porter could be next, and he would give them a Metro Detroit native. Porter grew up in Milford, just over thirty miles northwest of downtown in western Oakland County, and he commutes back east to play for the powerhouse Orchard Lake St. Mary's program that produced Alex Mooney last year and also includes Irish, as mentioned. Porter is one of the hardest throwers in the prep class, comfortably sitting in the mid 90's and reaching triple digits at his best, with the pitch really jumping on hitters. It's not just a case of him going all out, as he has the arm strength to hold that mid 90's velocity deep into his starts. He throws two breaking balls in a loopy curveball and an inconsistent slider, though the latter flashes plus at its best and the former could tighten into an out pitch as he develops. Unlike most power high school arms, he actually stands out the most for his changeup, a plus pitch that has really dazzled hitters everywhere he's gone. Also unlike most preps that throw as hard as he does, the 6'4" righty does a good job of filling up the strike zone, though he does need to get a bit better about hitting his spots. Still, when you throw that hard, you don't have to be perfect. Porter has a clean, athletic delivery, but there is some head whack to be cognizant of. One small drawback in the profile is age, as he turns 19 more than a month before the draft and is older than some college freshmen. It will be expensive to buy him out of a Clemson commitment but at pick #12, Detroit shouldn't have to go too far above slot value.
Other options: C Ike Irish (Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI via Hudsonville, MI), OF Gregory Pace (Edison HS, Detroit, MI), RHP Andrew Taylor (Central Michigan via Alto, MI), OF Nolan Schubart (Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI via Durand, MI), OF Clark Elliott (Michigan via Barrington, IL)

Kansas City Royals: RHP Karson Milbrandt, Liberty HS, MO
Hometown: Liberty, MO. My rank: #123.
Last year, the Royals not only drafted the Ben Kudrna (Blue Valley Southwest HS), hometown pick I gave them in last year's article, they also made it double and grabbed Carter Jensen (Park Hill HS) as well. This year, I'll go back to the high school ranks again and put Karson Milbrandt on their radar, who is having a nice spring at Liberty High School northeast of the city. He stands out first and foremost for his fastball, typically a low 90's pitch that has gotten up to 96 this year. Coming from a low arm slot, the pitch features huge spin rates and a ton of arm side run, making it one of the tougher fastballs to square up in the class. He's gotten more consistent with his offspeed stuff this year, showing an above average slider and flipping in an average curveball. His changeup is behind, which isn't uncommon for prep arms, but we have the chance for a full starter's arsenal from a unique slot. Milbrandt's command comes and goes and there is certainly reliever risk, especially combined with the lower slot and his smaller 6'1" frame, but he's on the younger side having only turned 18 in April and has time to fill out. Perhaps most importantly for Kansas City, his Vanderbilt commitment will make him an expensive sign, especially if they wait until their third round pick to grab him. High school pitchers are unpredictable, but the second round feels a bit rich for right now.
Other options: 2B Robert Moore (Arkansas via Leawood, KS), RHP Jacob Misiorowski (Crowder JC via Grain Valley, MO), RHP Ben Bybee (Blue Valley Southwest HS, Overland Park, KS), LHP Jake Bennett (Oklahoma via Bixby, OK), RHP Carter Rustad (Missouri via Kansas City, MO)

Milwaukee Brewers: SS Gavin Kilen, Milton HS, WI
Hometown: Milton, WI. My rank: #53.
Like the Royals, the Brewers took my advice and drafted last year's hometown pick Alex Binelas (Oak Creek native) in the third round, though they promptly traded him to Boston in the Hunter Renfroe deal. They like their young hitters and have seen some success from guys like Felix Valerio, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Jackson Chourio, even if they're still waiting on Garrett Mitchell and Hedbert Perez to find their groove. For that reason, there's a chance they could go out to that I-90 corridor and grab Gavin Kilen out of Milton High School just north of Janesville. Kilen can really, really play, utilizing a very mature approach at the plate and strong bat to ball skills to make contact as consistently as anybody in the class outside of that top tier. He also plays a slick shortstop with plenty of range. One the down side, the Milton native is far from the most physical player in the class, with a skinny 5'11" frame that does not produce much power to this point, especially since he's more focused on all fields, line drive contact. Kilen also has some arm strength, but not quite the cannon teams look for at shortstop and he may fit better at second base, where he would be above average. Coming into the season, Kilen and potential top five pick Jackson Holliday were very fairly similar players, but Holliday has gotten much stronger and had an electric spring while Kilen has underwhelmed just a touch. If his ends up being a late bloomer physically like Holliday, he could end up an extremely well-rounded player in the end. Committed to Louisville like so many others from the area in recent years, he could go get stronger with the Cardinals, but it would be fun to see the Brewers jump on him in the second or CBB round.
Other options: LHP Connor Prielipp (Alabama via Tomah, WI), 3B Max Wagner (Clemson via Green Bay, WI), OF Tommy Specht (Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA), RHP Jack Washburn (Mississippi via Webster, WI), C Drake Baldwin (Missouri State via Madison, WI)

Minnesota Twins: RHP Adam Mazur, Iowa
Hometown: Woodbury, MN. My rank: #32.
There are two Washington County products that figure to go in the top fifty or so picks in this draft between Tennessee's Drew Gilbert and Iowa's Adam Mazur. Minnesota's second round pick doesn't roll around until #48 and may not get a shot at either, but between the two, Mazur is probably more likely to be available (getting blown up by Indiana recently doesn't hurt his chances of reaching #48 either). The pick would make sense, too, after the Twins spent last year's second round pick on another funky Big Ten arm in Michigan's Steven Hajjar. Mazur went to Woodbury High School in St. Paul's eastern suburbs, where he played against nearby Stillwater High School's stars Gilbert and Will Frisch (now at Oregon State) and alongside Marlins top prospect Max Meyer. He's well-travelled throughout the Upper Midwest, having begun his career at South Dakota State before transferring back east to Iowa, where he's seen his stock rise significantly. Mazur sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and gets up to 97 with arm side run, while a plus slider with deep bite is his best secondary. He also shows a solid curveball and changeup, giving him a full arsenal. The 6'4" righty is plenty projectable and is really growing into his body well, getting more consistent with his mechanics and improving his command along the way. He has a chance to be an impact starting pitcher and he could do so at home in Minnesota.
Other options: OF Drew Gilbert (Tennessee via Stillwater, MN), RHP Will Frisch (Oregon State via Stillwater, MN), 1B Peyton Williams (Iowa via Johnston, IA), 3B Mac Horvath (North Carolina via Rochester, MN), RHP Seth Halvorsen (Tennessee via Plymouth, MN)

Pittsburgh Pirates: SS Cole Young, North Allegheny HS, Wexford, PA
Hometown: Wexford, PA. My rank: #36.
The Pirates went all out last year when they had the largest bonus pool and signed Anthony Solometo, Lonnie White Jr., and Bubba Chandler to massive over slot bonuses, and this year they can be aggressive again with the fourth largest pool of any team and three of the first 44 picks. While Cole Young won't be in play at the fourth overall pick, he makes sense as a reasonable over slot candidate at #36 or #44 if he wants to stay home. Young attends North Allegheny High School in Wexford, a northern suburb of Pittsburgh within a few miles of David Bednar's Mars Area High School and Neil Walker's Pine-Richland High School. In stark contrast to fellow prep shortstops Jackson Holliday, Mikey Romero, and Max Martin, Young has seen his stock hold extremely steady throughout the cycle, a testament to his simple, consistent style of play. He's a very heady ballplayer that makes, you guessed it, very consistent hard contact at the plate, using a line drive approach that serves him just as well against high-octane showcase arms as it does against the Pittsburgh-area high school competition back home. He finds the sweet spot regularly on pitches inside and outside the zone, handling velocity and quality breaking balls with ease. While that contact-over-power approach does limit his game power a bit, he produces higher exit velocities than you'd expect given his skinny six foot frame when he does decide to turn on one. Young is also a strong defender with a good chance to stick at shortstop, further adding to his value. Committed to Duke, he will likely be an expensive sign.
Other options: OF Paxton Kling (Central HS, Roaring Spring, PA), RHP Jake Madden (Northwest Florida State JC via Enola, PA), C Matt Wood (Penn State via Gibsonia, PA), OF Derek Orndorff (Liberty via Mill Run, PA), RHP Cameron Weston (Michigan via Canonsburg, PA)

St. Louis Cardinals: 3B Cayden Wallace, Arkansas
Hometown: Greenbrier, AR. My rank: #62.
It's a down year for talent in the Eastern Missouri/Southern Illinois region this year, so I had to cast my net a little wider to bring a hometown pick to St. Louis. Living in Texas, I've learned that Arkansas (especially northern and eastern Arkansas) is deep Cardinals country, so I feel perfectly good going down to the Natural State to grab Cayden Wallace as the Cardinals' hometown pick. Wallace grew up in the small town of Greenbrier, about 45 minutes north of Little Rock and five and a half hours southwest of Busch Stadium. He was a big time prospect at Greenbrier High School that was good enough to hear his name called in the five round draft in 2020, but signability led him to Fayetteville instead where he has built his stock further. Seen as mostly a power hitter in high school, Wallace got on base at a .369 clip as a true freshman and .352 in the Cape Cod League and is now flirting with .400 this season as of this writing. He still possesses plus raw power from the right side, capable of producing big exit velocities and putting the ball out to all fields. Wallace is still learning pitch selection and can be susceptible to offspeed stuff, but he's improving and his ability to keep his barrel long through the zone helps him limit his strikeouts to a reasonable number. His future position is up in the air, as his cannon arm alone gives him a shot at third base, but he still has some work to do with the glove if he wants to stay there. He runs well for his size and could be a solid defender in right field. The Cardinals like these more or less complete college bats with some pop, so it would not be surprising to see Wallace head across the border to St. Louis. It seems unlikely they would bite with their 22nd overall pick unless he catches fire through the postseason, but if he's still available at pick #59, it would make a lot of sense. He probably fits about a dozen or so picks before that on talent alone but signability may play a factor as he's sophomore eligible and does not turn 21 until August.
Other options: C Dalton Rushing (Louisville via Brighton, TN), LHP Bradley Loftin (DeSoto Central HS, Southaven, MS), OF Kevin Graham (Mississippi via O'Fallon, MO), C Jimmy Obertop (Michigan via St. Louis, MO), RHP Collin Baumgartner (SIU Edwardsville via Brighton, IL)