The Padres went all in on pitching early, grabbing who they likely see as the two best high school arms in the entire class with their first two picks in Dylan Lesko and Robby Snelling. After grabbing a college arm in Adam Mazur in the second round, they bet big again with a fourth consecutive arm in Henry Williams, who like Lesko is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. The bats in this class were a little more diverse in terms of skill sets, between the excellent hit tools of Nathan Martorella, Jakob Marsee, Nick Vogt, and Graham Pauley and the big time power of Lamar King Jr. and Griffin Doersching. It's a uniquely Padres class with all the high upside high school talent, hoping to give a jolt to a system that lost a boatload of talent just a few weeks later in the Juan Soto trade.
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1-15: RHP Dylan Lesko, Buford HS [GA]. My rank: #11.
Slot value: $4.09 million. Signing bonus: $3.9 million ($185,000 below slot value).
The Padres started off this draft with a bang, grabbing the guy who for much of the spring was considered the best pitcher in the class, period. Dylan Lesko has been one of the most famous names in the 2022 high school class for a few years now, and he pitched like it this spring to seemingly cement himself in the top ten picks (well, as cemented as a high school right hander can be). Unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery in April, and there were some points where it looked like he might make it to campus at Vanderbilt. The Padres ensured that would not happen by taking him fifteenth overall, so he was still the first high school pitcher drafted, and surprisingly got him to sign slightly below slot value. Lesko is an extremely well rounded pitcher with few weaknesses. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, getting into the upper 90's more and more regularly. He adds two breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, though he throws the curveball more and while it isn't quite a plus pitch yet, its big spin rates and strong shape help it project to be a plus pitch in time. The Atlanta-area native finishes off his arsenal with a plus-plus changeup that is his best pitch right now, diving down out of the zone when he throws it low and still showing good fading action when he misses up. All together, the 6'2" righty has projection remaining and should continue add power to his already nasty stuff, and he's a very good mover on the mound that gets good extension and repeats his delivery well. He hits his spots consistently and has every chance to become an ace, with a high likelihood that he's at least a mid-rotation starter.
CBA-39: LHP Robby Snelling, McQueen HS [NV]. My rank: #43.
Slot value: $2 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($995,500 above slot value).
Robby Snelling had plenty of interest throughout the back half of the first round, but as prep pitchers tend to do, he slid down the board to the Padres in the competitive balance round and signed for a million dollars above slot value, roughly the value of the 24th pick. Considered more of a third or fourth round guy entering the season, Snelling had an extremely loud spring and rocketed up boards, with some considering him possibly the best lefty in the class. He didn't rank quite that high on my list, but it's a very loud profile. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has gotten up to 96 this spring, getting some ride on the pitch as well. His bread and butter is his curveball, a plus pitch that dives across the zone late and has missed a ton of bats. There's some aptitude for a changeup, but it's all about the fastball and really the curveball for now. The 6'3" lefty comes across his body to create tough angle on his pitches, going right after hitters and filling up the strike zone well. He commands his curveball extremely well for a high school pitcher, something that really stands out to me when I watch him pitch and should help him rack up strikeouts in pro ball. The Reno native is also a very good athlete, packing a ton of strength into that 6'3" frame and getting down the mound well, though he doesn't have a ton of projection left. He had been committed to LSU but will now have a chance to push through the system.
2-53: RHP Adam Mazur, Iowa. My rank: #55.
Slot value: $1.44 million. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($190,600 below slot value).
Adam Mazur has a fun profile and has been a steady riser for some time now. He originally enrolled at South Dakota State, but pitched very well in the Cape Cod League last summer (1.55 ERA, 34/6 K/BB in 29 IP) and transferred to a data-driven Iowa program this spring. The results were strong, as after holding a 5.50 ERA over two years in Brookings, he dropped it to 3.07 in Iowa City along with a 98/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.2 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has been up to 97, getting nice hop on the pitch. His nasty, plus slider has deep bite and functions as his main out pitch, while he also adds a curveball and changeup that look like big league pitches as well. The 6'4" righty still has projection remaining and is steadily learning to repeat his delivery better, leading to improved command throughout his time in college, and he even got better in that regard throughout the 2022 season to the point where it's now average. He has an uptempo delivery, but because of his projection, deep arsenal, and improving mechanics/command, he projects well as a #2 or #3 starter. Really my only qualm with the profile is a bit of a lower 26.1% strikeout rate this spring despite pitching for a progressive program, but otherwise it's an increasingly complete profile here.
3-91: RHP Henry Williams, Duke. My rank: #115.
Slot value: $680,400. Signing bonus: $800,000 ($119,600 above slot value).
Henry Williams is another injured pitcher the Padres are taking a chance on, but he has much less track record and requires much more projection than Dylan Lesko despite being two years older. Williams made just one appearance for Duke in the shortened 2020 season then showed well in 2021, posting a 3.65 ERA and a 45/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 innings while missing some time with injuries. He showed extremely well in fall practice, but again went down with arm soreness and in December, that turned into Tommy John surgery. That said, this is how you get a potential ace for just $800,000. The Connecticut native sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but he was up to 95 in the fall as the velocity slowly crept up. He's flashed some plus sliders at times, though it needs more consistency, and there is some feel for a changeup. You're buying the projection here, as Williams is a 6'5" beanpole with a ton of room to fill out and he's very young for a college junior to boot, not turning 21 until September. He's extremely athletic on the mound, with a very loose delivery that lends itself well to throwing strikes, and he puts high spin rates on all his stuff that give it extra hop and projection. This is the kind of profile that takes off if things break right. Now Tommy John aside, there are still massive durability questions here, as Williams will have gone through his three years of college throwing 0.2, 37, and zero innings, respectively, all before missing time yet again before his Tommy John. He needs to get a lot stronger to stick in the rotation, which could also mean his stuff takes a massive step forward as he fills out. The Padres are fully bought into that happening, and I'll be very interested to follow along.
4-120: C Lamar King Jr., Calvert Hall HS [MD]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $502,800. Signing bonus: $502,800.
The Padres finally picked a position player here with their fifth pick, going for an upside play in Lamar King Jr. King is the son of former NFL defensive end Lamar King, and he looks like an NFL player's son with a big, strong, 6'3" frame. That strength helps generate above average raw power that could become plus in time as he irons out his swing, as he has a fairly stiff operation for now that might cost him some pop. You help him get his arms extended more consistently, and he could end up sending the ball impressive distances. His power is ahead of his hit tool for now, but he does take pretty good at bats and recognizes pitches fairly well. I think with more refinement in the Padres system, the Baltimore-area native has a chance to get to a fringe average or even an average hit tool. He's a solid defender behind the plate and moves very well for his size, helping him use that big frame block balls in the dirt. High school catchers are notoriously difficult to develop and King has a lot of work to do, but the upside here is a starting catcher that can blast 20+ home runs a year and that's worth a $500,000 gamble. King was in a great position, as he could have attended the catching factory that is Georgia Tech.
5-150: 1B Nathan Martorella, California. My rank: #192.
Slot value: $375,500. Signing bonus: $325,000 ($50,500 below slot value).
Nathan Martorella brings a little bit of an unusual profile as a hit-over-power first baseman, but it's an interesting one. He didn't hit much over his first two seasons at Cal, but broke out in 2022 to slash .333/.424/.553 with eleven home runs and a 29/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. He takes short, simple hacks in the batters box with the goal of spraying hard line drives around the field, rarely looking to do too much. With a stocky build at 6'1", 225 pounds, he translates his compact strength into a high frequency of hard hit balls, finding the barrel extremely consistently with a keen eye at the plate and a very patient approach. Martorella a first baseman only, so the pressure will be on his bat. The power isn't quite where you want it for a first baseman, but given his knack for barreling the ball and hitting it hard, he could tap average power if he begins to lift the ball more. The Salinas (Monterey County) native could move relatively quickly through a thinned out Padres system, with a ceiling of 15-20 home runs a year and high on-base percentages. So far through five games in the Arizona Complex League, Martorella has two singles and two walks.
7-210: OF Nick Vogt, UC Santa Barbara. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $224,300. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($24,300 below slot value).
Nick Vogt gives the Padres another Californian as a guy who can contribute in a lot of ways even if he doesn't have a true carrying tool. After performing poorly over his first two seasons at UC Santa Barbara, like Nathan Martorella he broke out in 2022 to slash .317/.405/.541 with seven home runs and a 39/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He has long arms and uses them to spray hard line drives around the field with regularity, with enough raw power in the tank to leave the yard when he gets those arms extended. He's a disciplined hitter that makes a lot of contact, helping him get on base at better than a .400 clip this spring. The Central Valley native out of Davis is also a solid runner that has a chance to stick in center field, which would dramatically increase his value as a potential fourth outfielder. Whether he reaches that ceiling hinges on his ability to handle breaking balls, as multiple sources noted that he was a much better hitter against high velocity fastballs than quality breaking balls. If he can, this is a very productive fourth outfield profile. He is hitless through his first six at bats in the Arizona Complex League.
8-240: 1B Griffin Doersching, Oklahoma State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $180,900. Signing bonus: $25,000 ($155,900 below slot value).
At just $25,000, this pick has a chance to be one of the best bargains of the draft. That tends to happen when you're nearly 24 on draft day, older than guys like Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Doersching played four years at Northern Kentucky, where he bashed 47 home runs in 161 career games and slashed .316/.488/.772 as a senior, then transferred to Oklahoma State this spring and continued to rake to the tune of a .296/.407/.673 slash line, 15 home runs, and a 51/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games. He has absolutely massive raw power, as evidenced by this allegedly 513 foot home run against Texas Tech that left the stadium over the scoreboard. It's effortless power, too, as the 6'4", 250 pound hulk of a human being just flings the barrel at the ball with a simple, direct swing, and the ball just jumps off his bat like he loaded it with TNT. He does come with swing and miss concerns, running a 26.3% strikeout rate in 2022 that was well up from the 16.1% mark he put together in his senior year at NKU against weaker competition. Even though he rarely swings out of his shoes, he still has below average bat to ball skills and regularly chases, so the transition to pro ball will be a steep one. Given that I'm writing this on his 24th birthday (HBD Griffin), he doesn't have much time to figure it out. He's limited to first base defensively, so he'll have to tap that power in pro ball to move up. With his power, tattoos, and long blonde hair, the Milwaukee-area product can quickly become one of the Padres' more recognizable prospects and could become a power hitting platoon bat in the near future. He's already off to a hot start in the Arizona Complex League (albeit where he is much older than his competition), slashing .400/.538/.800 with just two strikeouts through five games.
11-330: RHP Isaiah Lowe, Combine Academy [NC]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($275,000 against bonus pool).
The Padres made one more big splurge to open up day three, signing Isaiah Lowe away from a Wake Forest commitment for fifth round money. Lowe showed scattered command and inconsistent stuff over the summer, but was a much more complete pitcher this spring. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out around 94, adding a sweeping slider that looks above average at its best as well as an improving changeup that could also be an above average pitch. The 6'1" righty has a strong lower half and gets deep into his glutes during his delivery, putting flat plane on his fastball while also aiding in the shape of his slider, which relies more on horizontal movement than vertical movement. After regularly coming off line and losing his arm slot over the summer, he repeated his delivery better this spring and showed better command because of it, giving him the chance to stick as a starter. The North Carolina native is extremely old for a high schooler, having turned 19 back in May, but the Padres were more than happy with his progress this spring and think he can catch up quickly. There is not a ton of projection in his frame, though he could stand to add a few ticks to his fastball which is currently average velocity-wise. If he can get more consistently 92-94 than the 90-91 he sits now, that flat plane could really make it play up.
12-360: LHP Austin Krob, Texas Christian. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Austin Krob spent a year at Kirkwood JC in Iowa before transferring to TCU in 2020, then showed well over his first two years in Fort Worth and looked like a mid day two pick. Instead, he opted to bet on himself and returned to campus for his senior season, which unfortunately did not go quite as planned as he finished with a 5.12 ERA and a 45/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, missing a month and a half with injury. Krob ran a solid 31% strikeout rate in 2022, but figures to be more of a crafty lefty that should fit somewhere between a back-end starter and a long reliever in pro ball. His fastball sits in the low 90's, touching 95, while his sweeping slider is his best pitch and helps him miss bats. He also adds in an average curveball and an above average changeup, though his stuff wasn't always at its crispest this spring as he battled those injuries. The 6'3" lefty comes from a low three quarters slot that helps his stuff play east-west, giving hitters and especially left handed hitters a unique look that can make for a very difficult at bat when he's locating. The command has looked above average at times, and if he can hold that, he has a chance to reach his ceiling as a back-end starter. If not, or if he doesn't prove durable enough to handle 150+ innings a year, his stuff could tick up in relief and he could ditch the curveball to focus on his best pitches.
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