The Cubs put together a very pitcher-heavy draft here, selecting just one position player in the first thirteen rounds as they look to stock up a system that has been somewhat depleted of arm talent behind 2021 first rounder Jordan Wicks. It's consistent with their deadline approach, where they added names like Hayden Wesneski and Ben Brown, and now the pitching depth is in a much better place than it was a few months ago. As is their brand, they targeted power arms, led by fourth rounder Nazier Mule and his triple digit fastball and closely followed by numerous arms that can touch 96, 97, and higher. It was also a prep-heavy draft, which we don't see often these days outside of San Diego and perhaps Atlanta and Kansas City, as the Cubs drafted seven high schoolers and impressively managed to sign six of them.
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1-7: RHP Cade Horton, Oklahoma. My rank: #21.
Slot value: $5.71 million. Signing bonus: $4.45 million ($1.26 million below slot value).
We talk about "risers" and "helium guys" throughout the draft process, but never in my eight years of closely following the draft have I seen someone rocket up boards as quickly as Cade Horton. This is a fascinating story, and we're going to spend a lot of words telling it. Horton was basically Mr. Sports at Norman High School in Oklahoma, where he earned significant draft interest as both a pitcher and a shortstop while also playing a mean enough quarterback to earn a ticket into Lincoln Riley's elite QB room at Oklahoma. Horton's name was thrown around as high as the second round in 2020, but ultimately he went to school to find his path. He didn't end up seeing the football field as a freshman and dropped the sport, then underwent Tommy John surgery just before the start of his freshman baseball season. Finally getting on a field of any kind for the first time in 2022, where he was already a draft-eligible sophomore, he started off as a third baseman only and didn't hit much, slashing .234/.323/.324 with just one home run on the year on that side of the ball. Finally picking up the baseball as a pitcher in late March, he was ineffective at first and carried a 7.94 ERA through the regular season. By that point, he had fallen from a potential second round pick in high school to one receiving little draft interest at all on either side of the ball. This is late May that we're talking, less than two months before the draft. Then something clicked, big time. Beginning with his start against Texas in the Big 12 championship game, he posted a 2.61 ERA and a 49/6 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 31 innings against some of the best lineups in college baseball – Texas, Florida, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Mississippi, to be specific. Every start was must watch TV and I'll admit I was glued to every pitch once the baseball world began to catch on. So what happened? Horton always had big arm strength, but he finally put it together in the postseason. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and was touching 98 late in the year, coming in with plenty of life that made it simply overpowering. He previously worked off a low 80's power curveball that could get slurvy at times, but late in the season he added a new slider that is already flashing plus with hard, late bite in the upper 80's. He's still working on a changeup, so the fastball and slider are his primary weapons and they're both true swing and miss pitches. His command has improved as well, because why not, and it looks at least average at this point and you could probably throw an above average grade on it once he gets a little more sample size under his belt. The 6'1" righty is an exceptional athlete, as you might expect from an Oklahoma QB recruit, repeating his delivery well and looking plenty durable enough to last over a full season. He'll definitely need to work on that changeup going forward, but Horton's transformation from a potential bust to a potential ace is incredible and the Cubs are more than happy to jump straight to the front of the Cade Horton hype train. Additionally, by signing him for more than a million dollars below slot value, they saved up enough money to drop a huge over slot bonus on...
2-47: LHP Jackson Ferris, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #34.
Slot value: $1.66 million. Signing bonus: $3.01 million ($1.35 million above slot value).
After saving $1.26 million on Cade Horton, the Cubs spent it all at once by going $1.35 million above slot value for Jackson Ferris, giving him money roughly equivalent to the #24 slot at pick #47 to steer away from an Ole Miss commitment. Ferris is one of the more famous names in this high school pitching class, having transferred from Mount Airy High School in North Carolina to play at the IMG Academy in Florida and face better competition. He showed very well over the summer then came out hot this spring, but he ended up just a little more inconsistent than some evaluators would have liked. Not the Cubs, though, who are completely bought into the upside with a malleable pitcher who could develop in any number of positive directions. Ferris sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 97 with plenty of ride, adding a big, deep curveball and a changeup that flashes above average. It is a very impressive three pitch mix from a teenager, but the real draw here is his projection. The 6'4" lefty has an ideal pitcher's frame with plenty of room to fill out, and he's a very good athlete on the mound to boot. There are some extra moving parts in his delivery for now and he's still growing into his long arms and legs, so his command can be inconsistent. There are days where everything is working right and you can throw an above average grade on that command, and on those days he looks like the best high school pitching prospect in the class, but there are others where he struggles to repeat his arm slot and shows below average command. You can live with all that because there is so much to work with here between the frame, athleticism, youth, arm strength, and feel for spin, and with the right development Ferris has possibly the highest upside in the entire prep pitching class.
3-86: SS Christopher Paciolla, Temecula Valley HS [CA]. My rank: #129.
Slot value: $735,500. Signing bonus: $900,000 ($164,500 above slot value).
The Cubs went back to the prep ranks for Christopher Paciolla, a riser this spring out on the West Coast who signed away from a UCLA commitment for an above slot bonus. He has some Peyton Graham in him if you're familiar with the Oklahoma shortstop-turned Tigers second round pick, albeit with a bit less speed. Paciolla has a long limbed, 6'2" frame with projection remaining, showing the kind of profile that could blossom with the right development. He already shows above average power from the right side from a powerful, slightly uppercut hack that elevates the ball well with authority. He has at times struggled to be consistent with his hit tool, but he was much better in that regard this spring and that enabled him to tap his power more frequently. A shortstop in high school, the Southern California native will get the chance to play there in pro ball with a solid arm and springy actions in the infield, though if he slows down at all as he fills out, third base might be a better option. In all, the upside is that of a power hitting shortstop that can swat 25+ home runs a year with solid on-base percentages, which will fit right into the Cubs' young core of bats. He's still getting adjusted to the Arizona Complex League, where he is slashing .143/.280/.286 with one home run and a 7/2 strikeout to walk ratio through seven games.
4-113: RHP Nazier Mule, Passaic County Tech HS [NJ]. My rank: #83.
Slot value: $538,600. Signing bonus: $1 million ($471,400 above slot value).
Leading the way in this hard throwing class is Nazier Mule, who will fit right into the Cubs' big velo club with Luke Little, Ryan Jensen, and Daniel Palencia. They again went way above slot to get the deal done, diverting the young fireballer away from a Miami commitment that could have had him draft eligible again at 20 years old. Mule is one of the most talented players in this prep class, bar none. He brings a ton of bat speed from the right side of the plate and shows off a cannon arm at shortstop, but the Cubs drafted him as a pitcher where his upside is even higher. At big showcase events last summer, he sat in the upper 90's with his fastball and touched triple digits repeatedly, then in longer outings this spring he's dialed it back a bit and sat comfortably in the mid 90's with running action. He flashes an above average slider and has fairly advanced feel for a potentially above average changeup. The 6'3" righty is extremely raw on the mound, often relying on his pure arm strength to just fling balls at the plate at high velocities, leading to inconsistent command and secondaries. He did show a little more polish this spring, though his delivery still needs considerable work which the Cubs are ready to provide. The great news is that the North Jersey native is one of the youngest players in the class, not even set to turn 18 until October which gives the Cubs plenty of time to figure things out. The arm strength here is simply special, and now that he's shown off some pitchability this spring, the Chicago believes he's well on his way to harnessing his stuff and turning into a potential ace. Don't expect Mule to move quickly, but with a little patience, be excited for the future.
5-143: RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech. My rank: #106.
Slot value: $402,400. Signing bonus: $385,000 ($17,400 below slot value).
Brandon Birdsell has been on scouts' radars for a long time. Originally a Texas A&M commit, he pitched sparingly out of the Aggie bullpen as a freshman and transferred to San Jacinto JC in Houston, where he came out of the gate red hot leading up to the shutdown and earned significant draft interest. Instead, he moved on to Texas Tech after the shortened five round draft and again came out of the gate hot in 2021, but a season ending shoulder injury clouded his status and he turned down the Twins in the eleventh round to return to school once more and prove his health. The move paid off, as Birdsell put up a 2.75 ERA and a 106/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 innings, perhaps highlighted by six no-hit, no-walk innings against Rice in which he struck out fifteen of the twenty hitters he faced. He fits into the Cubs' type as a power arm, sitting in the mid 90's with his fastball and getting up to 99 at his best, showing some ride while hiding the ball well with short arm action. He flashes a plus slider as well that functions as his out pitch, and has also worked in a curveball that flashes well and a solid changeup. Birdsell has above average command of his power fastball, but his offspeed command is closer to average if perhaps a tick below. The 6'2" righty has continually gotten stronger and now checks in at a listed 240 pounds, looking plenty durable enough to start now that the shoulder injury is behind him. Whether he can earn a spot in the Cubs' rotation will hinge on his being able to command his offspeeds well enough to elicit chases, which given their quality (especially the slider), doesn't have to be pinpoint. If he does move to the bullpen, the Houston-area native could thrive on that fastball/slider combination and potentially touch triple digits. As a 22 year old senior, he should move fairly quickly regardless.
6-173: RHP Will Frisch, Oregon State. My rank: #213.
Slot value: $303,900. Signing bonus: $228,000 ($75,900 below slot value).
Will Frisch, like Brandon Birdsell, was eligible a year ago and showed well in a swingman role, posting a 2.38 ERA and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings, but returned to school given that he was a draft-eligible sophomore and had more to prove. Set to slot into the Oregon State rotation full time this spring, he unfortunately never got that chance as Tommy John surgery will keep him out of action until 2023. When he's on the mound, Frisch shows interesting upside though he does need more work. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can reach the upper 90's in short stints, coming from a low release height with plenty of running action to make it a very tough pitch to square up. For now, that's by far his best pitch, but his changeup does flash above average when he commands it while his slider more inconsistent. The Cubs are buying the arm strength and unique stuff, hoping to get in on the ground floor of what could be a very solid #3 starter with more consistent secondaries. To get there, he'll not only have to sharpen those up, but he'll also have to prove he can hold up in the rotation in general given he has just seven collegiate starts under his belt and is a bit undersized at six feet tall. The Twin Cities native does a good job throwing strikes but also needs to fine tune his command a bit. For now, the profile is a bit relievery until he proves otherwise, but that fastball could be deadly in that role.
8-233: RHP Mason McGwire, Capistrano Valley HS [CA]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $189,100. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($10,900 above slot value).
Cubs fans are going to have to put the rivalry aside for one pick, because yes, Mason McGwire is indeed Mark's son. Unlike his father, Mason is a pitcher, one that has a ways to go but could develop into a very interesting option. He presently sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 93, while adding in a decent slider and a potentially above average changeup. Very projectable at 6'4", he has plenty of room to get stronger and more velocity is almost certain to come, with a very free and easy delivery that could probably throw harder right now if he wanted to. For now, the command is below average as he tends to lose his release point and can spike pitches in the dirt, so he'll have to develop that as he adds velocity. It looks like a starter profile given the frame, arsenal, and natural velocity, but it may take some time to develop. He had been committed to play with his brother, Max, at Oklahoma, but turns pro for roughly slot value in the eighth round.
9-263: RHP Connor Noland, Arkansas. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $164,600. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($35,400 above slot value).
You don't see too many above slot senior signs in the ninth round, but Connor Noland earned it. He was a very solid starter as an underclassman for Arkansas in 2019 and 2020, but struggled to earn innings on that loaded 2021 squad when his stuff backed up on him. He came back for his best year yet in 2022, posting a 3.65 ERA and a 113/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 innings, with those 116 innings finishing second in all of Division I only to Oklahoma's Jake Bennett. Noland only sits around 90 with his fastball, scraping the mid 90's at his best with modest life. He stands out more for his feel for spin, ripping off an above average slider with hard sweep that misses a ton of bats. The western Arkansas native also shows feel for an average curveball and can mix in a changeup, giving him the four pitch mix necessary to start. Combine that with above average command, and it's kind of a classic senior sign profile. In order to stick in the rotation, the durable 6'2" righty will need to either add life or a tick of velocity to his fastball, in which case he could be a solid #4 or #5. Otherwise, he could pitch heavily off that slider in a relief role and let the shorter outings bring his fastball up to perhaps 91-94 instead of 89-92, and then move quickly through the minors. He turned 23 shortly after the draft, making him the oldest player in the Cubs' draft class.
12-353: RHP Mathew Peters, Ivy Tech JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unspecified.
Any Ivy Tech alumni out there? Mathew Peters gives the Cubs a regional prospect, one who attended Bishop Dwenger High School on the north side of Fort Wayne, Indiana, before heading virtually across the street to Ivy Tech's Fort Wayne campus. Ivy Tech is "the nation's largest individual accredited statewide community college system" according to Wikipedia and serves as Indiana's primary community college, but it's not exactly known for sports. In fact, Mathew Peters is the first player ever drafted from the school, and he may forever be the only player drafted because the school is shutting down its baseball program next year. So now, the legacy of Ivy Tech baseball rests on Peters' shoulders, and he'll get to carry it on just up the road in Chicago. He's a power arm that sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, adding a hard, sweeping slider and a changeup. The 6'4" righty is very athletically built and gets down the mound well with a low release point, making his pitches play up and miss more bats. He'll need some refinement around his command and the consistency of his secondaries, but his combination of velocity, size, and athleticism is worthwhile to gamble on in the twelfth round. His Arizona Complex League debut didn't go quite as planned, allowing a run on one hit and two walks while recording just one out, a strikeout.
13-383: RHP Luis Rujano, Sunshine State Elite Academy [FL]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $210,000 ($85,000 against bonus pool).
The Cubs popped for one more over slot bonus here in the thirteenth round, signing righty Luis Rujano out of the Sunshine State Elite Academy in the Orlando area and away from a South Florida commitment. Rujano, like most Cubs arms, stands out for his arm strength. He sits in the low 90's but can get up to 96-97 at peak, coming in from a lower release point. He adds a short slider that flashes upside but with inconsistent shape, while his changeup is a third pitch. The 6'4" righty has somewhat of a pieced together delivery, starting and stopping throughout and seemingly just kind of hurling the ball at the plate, leading to inconsistent command. The Cubs will work to streamline that delivery and help him retain more energy throughout, which could solve more than a few problems. Already having turned 19 in April, the Venezuelan is the age of a college freshman and has less time to develop, but the natural arm strength here is a big draw.
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