The Rockies employed a bit of an odd draft strategy. There are other players I would have reached for first, but I don't really mind them reaching down the board for Gabriel Hughes given that they saved nearly a million dollars off slot value. What's odd is that they went for such a massive discount early despite having both a compensation pick and a competitive balance pick to play with, and then they never actually spent all that money they saved. In fact, they only borrowed six figures above slot value twice, once with competitive balance pick Jordan Beck ($147,700 above) and once with second rounder Jackson Cox ($304,700 above). That means they left $400,000 on the table despite the fact that the draft is the single most cost-effective way to acquire talent. Not a good look. They held four of the first fifty picks, and while they brought in some nice talent, I'm a bit underwhelmed by what they brought in there. Starting in the third round, they got a little more creative and I liked what they did with those rounds 3-5 picks. Interestingly, even though they left an early fifth round pick's worth of bonus pool money on the table, they gave numerous bonuses that were just slightly above slot value, often by less than $10,000. Just an odd draft all around.
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1-10: RHP Gabriel Hughes, Gonzaga. My rank: #24.
Slot value: $4.98 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($983,000 below slot value).
So Gabriel Hughes is probably not a top ten talent in this draft (you can see I have him closer to the back of the first round on my board at #24), and the Rockies recognized that by giving him closer to the slot value for the 16th pick, saving nearly a million dollars in the process. I find it extremely odd that they didn't redeploy that money, but for Hughes' sake, that's neither here nor there. In Hughes, the Rockies get a native son of the Rocky Mountains who grew up in the Boise suburb of Eagle, Idaho and attended, aptly, Rocky Mountain High School. He gradually built his stock throughout his time at Gonzaga and broke out as a junior, where he posted a 3.21 ERA and a 138/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 innings. He was overused in Spokane, throwing at least six innings in all fifteen of his starts and regularly climbing well over one hundred pitches, so he tired later in the season and allowed four, four, and six runs over his final three starts to bump his ERA from 2.44 to 3.21 in that span. When Hughes is on, he's untouchable. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and regularly gets up to 97 with some hop to it, while his slider comes in with sharp, two plane break and his changeup represents a third solid pitch. Previously noted for having below average command, he looked solid average in that regard at times during the season but is probably closer to fringe-average for now. On top of his loud stuff, the 6'4" righty is a very good athlete that gets down the mound well with good extension, giving hope that he should end up with at least average command in time. Hughes is very young for a college junior, only turning 21 in August, and he has also been noted for his intense competitiveness on the mound and strong makeup and work ethic. He's a very smart kid that knows what he needs to do to get better, then will do everything he can to deploy it on the mound and be the best he can be. If he can refine his command a little bit and build up his durability, he has a chance to be a frontline starter and one of the best in this draft class.
1C-31: OF Sterlin Thompson, Florida. My rank: #52.
Slot value: $2.43 million. Signing bonus: $2.43 million.
There was a glut of college bats, especially college outfielders, in this range of the draft, and that's why Sterlin Thompson fell out of my top fifty. Regardless, he's a very solid player who has a chance to be an all-around contributor in Colorado. Potentially a casualty of the five round draft in 2020, he reached campus at Florida for the 2021 season and showed well enough as a freshman to put his name into third round consideration for the 2022 draft. In 2022, he came out looking more physical and more explosive, and the result was a .354/.443/.563 slash line, eleven home runs, and a 47/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games that pushed him into the compensation round. Thompson lacks a carrying tool, aside from a great baseball name, but does a lot of things very well. As he's filled out his 6'4" frame and channeled that into his powerful left handed swing, he's begun to tap above average power in games that should play with wood bats. He makes plenty of contact and has cleaned up his swing as well, keeping his strikeouts down and handling premium velocity well in the SEC. That looks like a potential 20-25 home run bat with solid on-base percentages, and playing home games at Coors Field could have him approaching thirty home runs a year at peak. The Ocala, Florida native isn't quite fast enough to play center field, but he's a solid athlete that can handle himself in either corner outfield spot and he's also seen some time at second base if the Rockies really want to expand his versatility. It's not necessarily a future star profile, but one that has a very good chance to be a very solid regular and is trending in the right direction. He's slashing .300/.370/.450 with one home run and a 14/2 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games in the Arizona Complex League.
CBA-38: OF Jordan Beck, Tennessee. My rank: #51.
Slot value: $2.05 million. Signing bonus: $2.2 million ($147,700 above slot value).
Jordan Beck, like Sterlin Thompson, was a casualty on my list of that glut of college bats, with both falling towards the back end of that tier. The Rockies, however, have to be thrilled to land Beck here after he had been mocked to them frequently at the tenth overall pick. I always thought that was a little rich and perhaps Beck was a bit overhyped throughout the draft cycle, but I doubt Colorado expected he would be available to them not only at their second pick at #31, but at their third pick at #38. He has gradually built his stock at Tennessee and was right in the middle of the Volunteers' mid-season run as the best team in the country, slashing .298/.391/.595 with 18 home runs and a 62/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. After striking out in over 20% of his plate appearances in 2021, he came out of the gate hot in 2022 and showed much better control of the strike zone, though those swing and miss concerns crept back up throughout the season and he finished with almost the exact same strikeout rate as last season. He shows off plus raw power to all fields from a short, quick uppercut, with great feel for the barrel that enables him to make a ton of hard contact. He chased a lot in 2021 but was a bit better in that regard in 2022, but his steep swing path still led to swings and misses in the zone and that may continue to be the case in pro ball. The good news is that when Beck does hit the ball, he hits it hard and does damage, and at Coors Field that's a great trait to have. While the North Alabama native doesn't have Thompson's hit tool, he's a better runner that does have an outside chance to play center field and would slot very well in right field with his plus arm. Like much of his Tennessee teammates, Beck is also noted as an intense competitor. He's off to a hot start in the Arizona Complex League, slashing .371/.476/.571 with a home run and a 9/7 strikeout to walk ratio through eleven games.
2-50: RHP Jackson Cox, Toutle Lake HS [WA]. My rank: #89.
Slot value: $1.55 million. Signing bonus: $1.85 million ($304,700 above slot value).
The Rockies' largest over slot bonus of the draft came in the second round, when they gave Jackson Cox more than $300,000 extra to steer clear of an Oregon commitment and instead head out to Denver. Like the three players drafted ahead of him in this class, he has been a well-known name throughout the cycle that really shined in the spring to continue to build his stock. Cox sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and bumped 98 this spring, a significant increase from where he sat over the summer. His slider is his best pitch, with massive spin rates and nasty late bite that make it a true plus pitch that will continue to miss bunches of bats in pro ball. There's a solid changeup in there as well, giving him a strong three pitch mix to run it out there as a starter. The 6'1" righty does come with some relief risk, however, as he has had inconsistent command in the past (though it was better this spring even as his stuff ticked up) and doesn't have the most athletic delivery, with a short stride and a high release. It's hard to find his combination of fastball velocity and breaking ball quality outside the first round, especially when they can hold the strike zone for the most part, so the Rockies are very excited to bring him into their system.
3-88: LHP Carson Palmquist, Miami. My rank: #60.
Slot value: $713,300. Signing bonus: $775,000 ($61,700 above slot value).
Carson Palmquist is a fun one, and probably my favorite of their picks this year. He has dominated throughout his time at Miami, and in 2022 made the jump to the rotation with a 2.89 ERA and a 118/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 innings. Palmquist is the rare sidearm starting pitcher, with very few major league comps to work with aside from Chris Sale, which has been thrown around a lot. He touched 96 as a reliever last year, but hovered closer to 90 as a starter this spring, though the pitch did play above its velocity due to the funky slot giving it some rise. His best pitch is a plus slider with late, short bite to it, while his changeup gives him a third solid pitch to work with. Palmquist controls the zone extremely well with above average command, going right after hitters and keeping them off balance throughout the at bat. Evaluators watched the Fort Myers native's transition to the rotation very closely this spring to see if he could stick as a starter, and the answer seems to be a very resounding "maybe." His stuff did take a step back in those extended outings, but the results were still very strong and he ran an excellent 33% strikeout rate. He's built like a string bean at 6'3", with a narrow frame that seems unlikely to add much weight, so it's also not clear how durable he would be in a starter's role. We can point back to his averaging more than five innings and 87 pitches per start at Miami this spring, but once a week for sixteen weeks is still different than once every five days for six months. Given the command and his ability to make his stuff play above its velocity, I would absolutely run him out as a starter and see what happens. If he does have to go back to the bullpen, the idea of well commanded 93-95 from a sidearming lefty with a plus slider sounds very enticing. I like the opportunity with this pick, and they also have a chance to get creative in his development. He tossed a scoreless inning, walking two while striking out one, in his Arizona Complex League debut.
4-116: SS Ryan Ritter, Kentucky. My rank: #162.
Slot value: $522,900. Signing bonus: $530,000 ($7,100 above slot value).
Ryan Ritter is an interesting pick. I thought he might make more sense about a round or so later, but he's a great fit for the Rockies and I'm interested to see how this works out. Ritter spent a year at John A. Logan JC in Illinois before transferring to Kentucky, where he gradually built a solid mid day two case. In 2022, he slashed .283/.369/.469 with eight home runs and a 68/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, which is solid but unremarkable. Interestingly enough, he's a two year performer in the Cape Cod League, slashing a combined .292/.394/.435 with four home runs and a 48/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games between last summer and this summer, which certainly grabs my interest given the sample size. Ritter is solidly built but not overly physical at 6'2", using a quick uppercut to maximize his fringy raw power and make it play in games. When he elevates the ball, he elevates with authority, and Coors Field is the perfect place for a profile like that. He's an aggressive hitter that chases and also swings through some hittable pitches, giving him a below average hit tool, so managing the zone will be extremely important during his transition to pro ball. The Chicago-area native is a great defender with quick twitch athleticism at shortstop and a plus arm, so he'll almost certainly stick at the position and that will take significant pressure off his bat. I'm not sold on the overall profile that could end up with 40 hit, 45 power, but I'm definitely interested and at Coors he could hit 15-20 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, which should be enough to play every day given his defensive value. Like Jordan Beck, he's off to a hot start in the Arizona Complex League, slashing .348/.400/.739 with one home run and a 3/1 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games.
5-146: RHP Connor Staine, Central Florida. My rank: #80.
Slot value: $390,800. Signing bonus: $400,00 ($9,200 above slot value).
The Rockies made another interesting pick here, grabbing a risky arm with a ton of upside in the fifth round. Connor Staine began his career at Maryland and transferred to UCF this year, where he got off to a red hot start with 33.2 consecutive scoreless innings to begin the season. That put his name squarely in the second round conversation, but back and blister issues derailed his season from there and he made just four more starts totaling just 10.2 innings after those eight consecutive scoreless starts to begin the season, finishing with a 1.87 ERA and a 51/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 43.1 innings. When he's healthy, he shows tremendous potential in the right development system. Staine sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has gotten up to 97, adding a full arsenal of solid offspeed stuff led by a slider that flashes above average. It's not the loudest stuff you've ever seen, but it's all plenty projectable and will play well in pro ball. The 6'4" righty is very athletic on the mound with a smooth delivery and a projectable frame, leading me to think there is plenty more in the tank. He fills up the strike zone pretty well but has never shown consistent command as he's battled those nagging injuries, and that will be a point of development going forward. If Staine can stay healthy and continue trending in the right direction like he is, he strikes me as the kind of guy that just continues to get better and better and becomes a mid rotation starter. The New Jersey native has to prove he's durable enough to handle a starter's workload though.
6-176: RHP Michael Prosecky, Louisville. My rank: #214.
Slot value: $296,300. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($3,700 above slot value).
Michael Prosecky has been on an interesting run. He earned significant draft interest out of high school in the Chicago area, but made it to campus at Louisville, got some innings in the shortened 2020 season, then struggled to throw strikes and barely pitched in 2021. He started to turn the corner with a strong run through the Cape Cod League that summer, posting a 1.61 ERA and a 30/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.1 innings, then continued to show well in fall practice, leading many scouts to tab him as a breakout candidate for 2022. While it was certainly his best season in Louisville, Prosecky didn't quite "break out," posting a 3.38 ERA and a 44/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.1 innings out of the bullpen. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 97 with steep angle that makes it more of a weak contact pitch than a bat misser. He spins a big curveball that gets him swings and misses, adding a slider and changeup that round out his arsenal. Big and projectable at 6'3", he has a simple, low effort delivery but hasn't been consistent enough with his command to give confidence about a future in the rotation. I do think he could start in the right system, though with the Rockies he will probably be better off focusing one one or two offspeeds and letting his fastball sit in the mid 90's where it can miss more bats. The command should also play up in that role. He tossed a perfect inning in his Arizona Complex League debut, striking out one.
10-296: RHP Zach Agnos, East Carolina. My rank: #205.
Slot value: $153,200. Signing bonus: $165,000 ($11,800 above slot value).
I actually had Zach Agnos on my board primarily as a position player, coming off a strong year with the bat in which he slashed .330/.405/.479 with seven home runs and a 66/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games, but the Rockies picked him up as a pitcher. Coming out of the ECU bullpen, he posted a 2.31 ERA and a 19/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings, and he'll continue to serve in that role with the Rockies. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, up to around 95, and adds a full set of secondaries. He has feel to spin two breaking balls as well as a solid changeup, commanding everything fairly well to boot. It's not a ton of velocity especially given that he's already only throwing in short stints, but it plays up a big because he gets low in his delivery and puts a relatively flat approach angle on his fastball. There is enough arm strength here to potentially think he could maintain something like 90-92 in a starter's role, especially given that he'll be focusing on pitching alone, though the Rockies will probably be best off just keeping him in the bullpen and letting the deep arsenal give hitters a different look than typical. If he ever does pick up the bat again, the Northern Virginia native consistently hits the ball hard and has a patient approach, but he doesn't lift the ball well and probably doesn't have the bat to ball skills to make the necessary swing adjustment to lift the ball more. In Coors, value comes from balls in the air, so he probably wouldn't be a great fit there as a hitter.
14-416: RHP Braxton Hyde, Butler County JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: undisclosed.
In the fourteenth round, the Rockies brought home a semi-hometown player who grew up on the High Plains. Braxton Hyde is a native of Liberal, Kansas, just north of the Oklahoma Panhandle and just over an hour east of the Colorado border. He has spent two years at Butler County in JC just outside of Wichita, and this year posted a 4.68 ERA and a 98/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings, though Baseball America notes that the Kansas JuCo circuit is a very hitter-friendly environment. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 95, working down the mound with a short, hard slider and a solid changeup. There's some effort in his delivery and he could probably use something a little softer if he wants to miss more bats in pro ball, but the stuff would play very well in relief where it could all tick up in power. He had been committed to Oral Roberts but will instead head across the plains to Denver.
19-566: 3B Skyler Messinger, Texas. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: undisclosed.
Fourteenth rounder Braxton Hyde was a semi-hometown pick because western Kansas is closer to Denver than it is to Kansas City, but Skyler Messinger is a true hometown guy. He grew up a Rockies fan in Niwot, a small suburban community between Boulder and Longmont up north of Denver, and spent the first four years of his college career down I-70 at Kansas. Transferring to Texas as a fifth year senior this year, he had his best year yet by slashing .364/.414/.560 with eleven home runs and a 58/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. He is an aggressive hitter that is always looking to do damage, taking big, healthy hacks from the right side that help lead to average power. He especially loves to turn on the ball and drive it to left field, and that elevate and celebrate mindset will serve him well at Coors Field. The other element of being aggressive means that he chases fairly regularly, leading to a 20.5% strikeout rate and a very low 6.4% walk rate. He'll have to tighten that up in pro ball to hit his way through the system. Defensively, he has manned third base for the Longhorns and figures to play there in pro ball. Messinger is slashing .200/.294/.200 with a 3/1 strikeout to walk ratio through seven games in the Arizona Complex League.
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