Some teams prefer to play the draft straightforward, but the Braves went all out mixing and matching bonus sizes, saving nearly $850,000 on first round pick Owen Murphy and going nearly a million dollars above slot value on seventh rounder Adam Maier in the most extreme examples. It didn't stop there, with seven additional picks aside from Murphy and Maier who signed for at least $100,000 more or less than slot value. That included the last three picks of day two, who got a measly $2,500 each so that Atlanta could afford those massive over slot bonuses to Murphy and sixth rounder Seth Keller (more than $400,000 above slot). Even the guys who signed "at slot" were part of the game, as Atlanta actually took $2,500 off every signing bonus on the draft's first two days regardless of its relation to the slot value, instead counting the $2,500 contingency bonus each player automatically receives (which does not count against the bonus pool) as part of the signing bonus. All these games helped them land a class that included three of the most talented high school pitchers in the draft with their first three picks, in addition to a college position player class that leaned heavily on power. Interestingly, many teams factor age relative to class into their draft models, but the Braves went the opposite direction and drafted numerous players that were either on the older side for their class, or in some cases, a full year older than the rest of their academic class.
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1-20: RHP Owen Murphy, Riverside Brookfield HS [IL]. My rank: #32.
Slot value: $3.41 million. Signing bonus: $2.56 million ($849,200 below slot value).
Anyone who saw Owen Murphy pitch this spring probably had a feeling he was going to be drafted much higher than the industry consensus, and he was. Considered a second to third round prospect entering the spring, he just dominated the Chicago area on both sides of the ball and pushed himself into the first round conversation. An accomplished hitter in addition to a pitcher, he shows advanced discipline in the box and elevates the ball with authority, but his future is certainly on the mound. There, Murphy sits in the low 90's with his fastball, getting up to around 95 with a ton of riding action from a low release height with good extension. It's one of the flatter fastballs out there and just ate up Chicago area bats this spring. He plays off that fastball with a tight slider that flashes plus and also shows well with a more traditional, top to bottom curveball and a changeup. The 6'1" righty is very athletic on the mound with a clean, efficient delivery that should continue to add velocity, and he fills up the strike zone consistently. It's a pretty complete profile for a teenager, one that could move relatively quickly through the minors and be MLB ready at a young age. Committed to Notre Dame, he was drafted high enough that he was willing to take a significant under slot deal that the Braves partially redeployed on...
CBA-35: RHP JR Ritchie, Bainbridge Island HS [WA]. My rank: #56.
Slot value: $2.4 million. Signing bonus: $2.2 million ($196,800 above slot value).
One of the more well-known names in this year's prep class, JR Ritchie left his mark on some of the best hitters in the 2021 draft class as a rising junior in the summer of 2020, then established himself as a potential first round pick the following summer. Ritchie's spring was a bit more up and down, but that didn't deter the Braves who gave him nearly as large a bonus as first round pick Owen Murphy. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, getting up to 97 with some late hop, while his plus slider is one of the better breakers in the draft at its best. He also mixes in a solid curveball and changeup, and when he's going right, locates all four pitches well for a teenage pitcher. The 6'2" righty is a great athlete that moves extremely well on the mound, getting great extension towards the plate and repeating his delivery well. He's old for the class and turned 19 back in June, but he has a great head on his shoulders, really seems to understand the development process, and is advanced enough that the age isn't a huge issue. There's definitive upside as an impact starting pitcher, and he could reach that ceiling sooner rather than later. He was committed to UCLA but instead joins the Braves here.
2-57: RHP Cole Phillips, Boerne HS [TX]. My rank: #67.
Slot value: $1.31 million. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($190,200 above slot value).
Cole Phillips was an interesting prospect last summer, but took off in the spring when he added about five miles per hour to his fastball. Unfortunately, that helium was short lived, as he blew out his elbow in April and required Tommy John surgery. Given that he's already extremely old for a high school senior, having turned 19 in May, he now may not be back on a mound until he's 20 years old. For that reason, it makes sense that he signed here for a big bonus rather than heading to Arkansas with just one season to prove himself before becoming draft eligible again in 2024. The Braves are buying into a huge fastball, one that sat in the mid to upper 90's this spring and touched 101 with riding action, something you just don't see from high schoolers. His main secondary is a slider that flashes plus, but it's inconsistent and flattens out regularly. Phillips also flips in a curveball and changeup, giving him a full arsenal to work with once he gets healthy and the Braves get to work on refining everything. The 6'3" righty gets down the mound very well and maintained solid control even after his velocity took off, with plenty of athleticism and strength that he capably harnesses. There is a huge ceiling here for the San Antonio-area product, with the potential for a triple digit fastball accompanied by legitimate offspeed stuff and solid command, but he's going to get a very late start on working towards that ceiling due to his injury and age.
2C-76: RHP Blake Burkhalter, Auburn. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $860,100. Signing bonus: $647,500 ($212,600 below slot value).
Blake Burkhalter was the first player drafted this year that was not on my list, but I was aware of him and he was on the short list of guys I would have looked more into if I had more time before the draft. There always has to be a cut off, right? The first collegian drafted by the Braves this year, Burkhalter is a semi-local kid who grew up in the Lower Alabama town of Dothan before heading north to Auburn for college. He's gotten better and better throughout his time there, and this year he was right in the middle of Auburn's College World Series run with a 3.69 ERA and a 71/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.1 innings out of the bullpen. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for 97-98 at will, coming in with riding life that makes it very tough to square up on its own. You can't just sit on the heat, though, as he frequently pitches off a hard, nasty cutter around 90 with sweep and downer action. It's one of the better two pitch mixes in college baseball, and he does add a decent changeup to keep left handed hitters off his fastball. The 6' righty is a pure reliever at this point because he throws with some effort, loading deep into his plant leg before exploding towards the mound. He initially struggled with command earlier in his Auburn career but has gotten better in that regard, now looking fringe average – plenty good enough in one inning sets where he can get ugly swings off his fastball/cutter mix. If he can keep that control together at least for the most part, he could race to the big leagues and be up by next year.
3-96: C Drake Baldwin, Missouri State. My rank: #113.
Slot value: $635,800. Signing bonus: $633,300 ($2,500 below slot value).
Like Owen Murphy, Drake Baldwin is a guy that felt like he would be drafted a bit higher than the industry consensus, and that was the case again. Baldwin had a massive breakout year at Missouri State this spring, slashing .341/.448/.647 with 19 home runs and an even 37/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games despite coming into the year with just five career home runs. He effectively taps his power from the left side with an uphill swing path that still stays in the zone for a long time, helping him effectively lift the ball with authority and allowing his power to play to all fields. He doesn't swing and miss much, especially for a guy with an ISO (isolated slugging) above .300, with a patient approach at the plate that translates into its fair share of walks as well. His defense is average, in need of a little refinement if he wants to stick behind the plate but it should be fully doable. The balanced all-around profile gives the upside of an every day catcher that could hit 20+ home runs a year with solid on-base percentages, with a more median projection of a very solid backup that can be a value add on both sides of the ball. So far in the minors, he has picked up three hits (including two doubles) in five at bats in the rookie-level FCL.
4-125: 3B David McCabe, Charlotte. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $478,900. Signing bonus: $476,400 ($2,500 below slot value).
In the fourth round, the Braves picked up a bat that put up some of the best numbers in college baseball, with David McCabe slashing .386/.513/.784 with 16 home runs and a 28/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games at Charlotte. He stands out for easy plus raw power that he taps consistently in games, having crushed 30 home runs in just 79 games over the past two seasons and slugging .760 along the way. He finds the barrel extremely consistently no matter where in the zone he's pitched, and he handles offspeed stuff well as well. Previously an aggressive hitter that liked to jump on pitches early in the count, he was much more patient in 2022 and watched his walk rate climb from 9.6% to 20.5%, pushing his on-base percentage above .500. McCabe is a big guy at a listed 6'4", 230 pounds, and although he manned third base for the 49ers, he'll likely move over to first base pretty quickly in pro ball with well below average speed. It's a pretty similar overall package to Tyler Locklear, who signed with the Mariners in the second round for more than double McCabe's bonus, though McCabe is nearly a year older, doesn't have the Cape Cod League track record, and isn't *quite* as elite with his exit velocities. Still, the Toronto-area native has a chance to slug his way towards an every day role in Atlanta if he can make enough contact against high end velocity. He went hitless in his first game in the FCL.
5-155: 3B Ignacio Alvarez, Riverside JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $357,400. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($140,100 above slot value).
Ignacio Alvarez was very much an under the radar pick, as he wasn't ranked by any major publications after a strong season at Riverside City College in which he slashed .370/.494/.582 with five home runs and a 16/36 strikeout to walk ratio across 48 games. A true freshman, Alvarez only turned 19 in April and is barely older than high school picks JR Ritchie and Cole Phillips, but took extremely well to JuCo pitching with just a 6.9% strikeout rate and a 15.6% walk rate. He's a very disciplined hitter for his age, controlling the strike zone with ease against mostly older pitching this spring while also showing some power potential from a strong 6' frame. Most of his power went to the gaps in 2022, but if he can get a little better at lifting the ball and a little more accurate with his barrel, he has the pitch selection ability and the pure strength to do real damage. A third baseman, he should be able to stick there with a strong arm and an average glove. Alvarez has picked up two hits in six at bats so far in the FCL.
6-185: RHP Seth Keller, Hanover HS [VA]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $275,100. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($422,400 above slot value).
Levi Huesman was the more famous pitcher at Hanover High School in the Richmond area, but Seth Keller wound up being the first one drafted out of that rotation. Undersized like Huesman, Keller has seen his velocity tick up this spring and now sits in the low 90's, touching 95-96 at best, with running life from a low three quarters arm slot. He flips in a solid slider with some sweep, though it can be inconsistent, and he has solid feel for a changeup with nice fading action to the arm side. Keller throws with some effort and is listed at just 5'10", with fringy command that will need to take a step forward to stick in the rotation. The Braves are buying into the youth (he only turned 18 in May), athleticism, and unique fastball traits that could make him a late inning weapon or a solid starting pitcher with some refinement, and it cost them more than $400,000 above slot value to sign him away from an Old Dominion commitment.
7-215: RHP Adam Maier, Oregon. My rank: #119.
Slot value: $215,400. Signing bonus: $1.2 million ($982,100 above slot value).
This was a surprise pick, because most in the industry believed Adam Maier was destined to end up back on campus at Oregon in 2023. A transfer from the University of British Columbia, Maier raised his profile with a 4.55 ERA and a 27/9 strikeout to walk ratio in the Cape Cod League, then was off to a hot start for Oregon with a 4.02 ERA and a 19/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.2 innings through three starts this year. Unfortunately, he went down with an elbow injury in March and though he so far has been able to avoid Tommy John surgery, he hasn't pitched since. Given that he's the age of a college sophomore, it looked like he was going to head back to school, put in a full, healthy season in the rotation, and still be age-appropriate for the 2023 draft. Now, he'll take his impressive raw stuff to Atlanta after signing for late second round money. Maier sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 95-96, and the pitch stands out for its hard arm side run and sink from a lower arm slot. It should be a ground ball machine in pro ball. His best pitch, however, is a plus-plus slider with elite spin rates and hard, late snap that leaves hitters shaking their heads. He adds a solid changeup that plays well off his fastball, giving him one of the better three pitch mixes on the west coast. If he puts it all together, there is definitive impact starter upside, but there is a lot of work to do. Beyond getting healthy, which he seems on track to do in plenty of time for the 2023 season, the skinny 6' righty needs to prove his durability as a starting pitcher given that he has very rarely been on the mound for long stretches of time. He'll also need to improve his command of his offspeeds, which is a bit behind his fastball command, and prove that he can hold that over extended innings. Given the massive signing bonus, it's clear the Braves believe that will happen, and if not, his three pitch mix would be nasty out of the bullpen.
9-275: 2B Cory Acton, Georgia. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $159,800. Signing bonus: $2,500 ($157,300 below slot value).
Though he's not a native Georgian, Cory Acton gives the Braves a Georgia Bulldog to throw into the system for some hometown flair and more importantly, massive cost savings with a minuscule signing bonus. Acton was a well known draft name out of American Heritage High School back in 2018, but made it to campus at Florida and spent three years in Gainesville, where he started as an underclassman but lost playing time as a junior in 2021. He transferred to Georgia in 2022 and put up a solid season in Athens, slashing .266/.394/.401 with five home runs and a 46/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. Acton is a patient, professional hitter that has been around the block more than a few times in the SEC, consistently working good at bats against high quality pitching. He has a clean swing from the left side, making a lot of contact by selecting good pitches to hit and producing some pull side power when he turns on one. Already 23 years old, the South Florida native should take quickly to professional pitching and could work his way to the upper minors rather quickly, though his overall ceiling is very limited. Having played all over the infield in college, primarily second and third base, he projects mostly as roster a roster filler that can slot in at a few different positions and hold his own against upper minors pitching, with a chance to become a bench bat in Atlanta if he taps a little more power. That pro career has already gotten started, with one hit in five at bats as well as two walks in the FCL.
19-575: OF Christian Jackson, Dutchtown HS [GA]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Back in 2019, the Braves drafted a kid named Michael Harris in the third round out of Stockbridge High School, and they went back to Henry County in the 19th round here to take Christian Jackson. Also a Stockbridge native, Jackson attended Dutchtown High School a few exits farther south on I-75 and will now hope to make the trip thirty miles north to Truist Park one day. Jackson is extremely physical at 6'2", 185 pounds, showing off plus speed and improving raw power from the right side. His swing can get a little rigid and will need some smoothing out in pro ball, but he's young and has plenty of time to get things ironed out in pro ball. Jackson played a lot of infield in high school and showed off impressive arm strength from shortstop, but the Braves drafted him as an outfielder where he more effectively deploys his speed and arm. Originally committed to Georgia State, he was always going to stay in the ATL and now he'll hope to join Harris in Atlanta soon and has already taken his first step, picking up one single in four at bats in the FCL.
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