By Zack Silverman
With Juan Soto out, the Nationals teams of the 2010's that resulted in a 2019 World Series championship are virtually all gone. Bryce Harper is in Philadelphia, Max Scherzer is in New York, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner are in Los Angeles, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton, and Howie Kendrick have retired, and Stephen Strasburg may never be the same pitcher he once was. Aside from Strasburg, the longest tenured players on the Nationals are Joe Ross (2015), Erick Fedde (2017), Adrian Sanchez (2017), and Victor Robles (2017) – every other player on the team joined in 2019 or later for their current stint. Those are a lot of words to say this trade ends a seismic shift in who the Washington Nationals are as a franchise, to the point where the players on the field represent a fundamentally different ball club. Loyalty means rooting for the name on the front of the jersey rather than the back, but it is a lot to take in regardless. Fans from Prince George's County down to the Hampton Roads and out to the Shenandoah have no choice but to start all over again and learn to fall in love with a new brand of Washington Nationals baseball.
You will never, ever replace a once-in-a-generation player like Juan Soto, which is why you don't see them dealt. All we can do is speculate, but with the impending sale of the team to new ownership, you have to imagine the most prominent suitors had a heavy hand in everything leading up to the trade. One line of thought would be that new ownership wanted to get as close to a clean financial slate as possible, which would mean not only trading Soto but getting rid of Patrick Corbin as well. Another would be that regardless of their intentions with Soto, they would at least want a shot to extend him, whether a deal ended up getting done or not. That's why you buy a sports franchise, right? But apparently, the opposite may have been the case – that new ownership wanted to avoid the massive PR hit that would come with not getting a deal done, and therefore being forced to trade one of the greatest players on the planet as one of their very first moves. Unfortunately, there is not much in this world billionaires care about more than PR, and if they can pin the deal on the Lerner family and throw their hands up to say "I would have extended him!" to save a little face, then that's where we are. So if that new ownership group says anything about Juan Soto when they do take over, don't let them off the hook so easily.
So that is quite enough about players who are no longer Nationals. In return, the Nationals picked up two major league ready players under the age of 24, two young outfielders that can't buy their own drinks yet, a teenage lottery ticket, and a big league first baseman to ensure Washington can put together at least something resembling a major league lineup until the younger guys are ready. It's a massive jolt to a farm system that has lagged way behind much of the rest of the league, giving them a top ten that even loaded farm systems would envy. The rest of the farm system? Well that's a story we'll get to later, but this is a good start.
We'll start with James Wood, in my opinion easily the best player coming back to Washington. Wood is actually a DMV native, hailing from the far northern suburb of Olney in Montgomery County, Maryland. He played his high school ball at the IMG Academy in Florida, where he teamed up with 2022 Nationals first round pick Elijah Green in the most fearsome outfield in the country. He generated top ten buzz early in the 2021 draft cycle, but struggled during his senior year and fell to the Padres in the second round, where he signed for a massive bonus. However, concerns about his hit tool turned out to be premature, as he has done nothing but rip up low minors pitching since signing. Between the Padres' ACL team and Low A Elsinore, he's slashing .336/.447/.556 with 13 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a very solid 81/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games, including a .337/.453/.601 line at Low A. Wood shows off massive power from the left side, a product of his equally massive 6'7", 240 pound frame and a quick, simple swing. He has learned that he does not need to do too much to tap that power, and his disciplined approach has translated much better than expected to professional pitching. Combine that bat with surprising athleticism given his massive size, which could help him stick in center field, and you have a potential superstar in the making. Wood only turns 20 in September and has just fifty games of full season ball under his belt, so he has a very long way to go, but if anybody is going to lessen the sting of losing Juan Soto ten years down the line, it will probably be him.
Next up is the other outfielder in the deal, Robert Hassell. Hassell played his high school ball at Independence High School in the southern suburbs of Nashville, earning a first round selection in 2020 at the eighth overall pick. After hitting .302/.393/.470 in his first pro season, he has spent the entire 2022 season at High A Fort Wayne and was slashing .299/.379/.467 with ten home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 66/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games at the time of the trade. He is an extremely professional hitter that makes a ton of hard, line drive contact while taking his walks to post high on-base percentages. While he's definitely a hit-over-power bat, he does have some pop and hits a high enough volume of hard hit balls to run into his fair share of home runs. The exit velocities are a bit pedestrian for what you'd look for in a future superstar, but if he can post close to .400 on-base percentages at the MLB level like he's capable, it may not matter. I'd put the ultimate projection around 15-20 home runs a year. In addition to the bat, he's a very solid defender that will have a chance to try to stick in center field, just like Wood, and it will be interesting to see the two of them battle with Jeremy De La Rosa, Elijah Green, and Cristhian Vaquero to see who gets that position long term (though Green and Vaquero are significantly faster). The whole package is somewhat similar to a left handed version of where Victor Robles stood as a prospect five years ago, albeit with a bit less speed and defense. I will let you all decide whether that is a good thing or a bad thing.
CJ Abrams will be the first young player in this deal to play for the Nationals. The sixth overall pick of the 2019 draft out of Blessed Trinity High School in the Atlanta area, Abrams flew through the minors and has split 2022 between AAA El Paso and the Padres, hitting .314/.364/.507 in 30 games for the former and .232/.285/.320 in 46 games for the latter. Upon acquiring him, the Nationals immediately sent him down to AAA Rochester, but the expectation is that he'll be back up well before the end of the season. Abrams will be 21 for the remainder of the season, so there's no rush. He's an exceptional athlete that stands out most for his plus-plus speed, which helps him play a very strong shortstop that should only continue to get better with more seasoning. As you might expect given that he reached the majors well before his 22nd birthday, Abrams took to pro pitching very smoothly and has never struggled as he's moved up the latter, with very strong feel for the barrel that has helped him do damage at every stop. He continued to make a ton of contact in his 46 game stint with the Padres, though he's rarely walked throughout his career simply because he doesn't let counts get too deep. There is some wiry strength in his 6'2" frame, but ultimately I don't expect him to top out at more than 10-15 home runs a year. Down at AAA and especially this coming offseason, the Nationals will likely design his conditioning program to help him finish filling out that frame so that he can produce a little more impact beyond singles and line drives in the gap. At his ceiling, he could be a similar all-around player to a left handed Trea Turner, albeit with significantly less power. If not, he has a good shot to end up a solid, long term answer for the Nationals at shortstop that can get on base, steal a ton of bases, and hit plenty of doubles and triples.
MacKenzie Gore is probably the most famous name in this trade, as he has a long history on prospect lists. Gore was the third overall pick in the 2017 draft out of Whiteville High School in rural southeastern North Carolina, giving the Nationals a top ten pick from the 2017, 2019, and 2020 drafts in this trade. He shot to stardom in the Padres system and in 2019, where he posted a 1.69 ERA and a 135/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 innings between High A and AA. At that time he was considered one of the top prospects in baseball, but the road has been bumpier since then. The pandemic interrupted his ascent and blister issues that nagged him early in his career returned in 2021, while his mechanics began to lose consistency as well. He only threw 50.1 innings last year and fell considerably from his 2019 status, but 2022 has been better. He made his MLB debut in April and held a 1.50 ERA and a 57/17 strikeout to walk ratio through early June, but has struggled mightily since then and went down with elbow soreness shortly before the deadline. That elbow issue could explain why his numbers suddenly took a turn, but the Nationals front office doesn't seem too concerned that this will be a major issue going forward. At his best, Gore has a true ace-caliber four pitch mix. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and gets up to around 98, while his upper 80's slider is a power sweeper that misses a ton of bats, his upper 70's curveball gives a deeper, sweeping look, and his changeup keeps hitters off balance. Overall, it's a very traditional profile, which Mike Rizzo loves. Once he gets back on the mound, there's a lot of directions he could go. Washington will hope to get him consistent innings free of injury-related distractions, in which case he could become a legitimate #2 starter. Or he could go down the path of Luis Severino, showing flashes of dominance while also spending significant amounts of time on injured lists. Then of course, there's always the middle ground where his stuff flattens out a little bit with wear and tear and he winds up a solid #4 starter that gives you a reliable arm but doesn't necessarily come to dominate.
Then of course we have Jarlin Susana, the teenage mystery man that the Padres apparently only included after the Nationals added Josh Bell to the deal. Signed for $1.7 million out of the Dominican Republic in January, he has spent the season in rookie ball and has a 2.45 ERA and a 44/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.1 innings. Susana is a huge, 6'6" righty that is already physically developed, bringing in ridiculous arm strength. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has touched as high as 102, coming in with steep downhill plane that from a high slot. He rips off a vicious slider that can creep up over 90, while his curveball and changeup are a bit less consistent. Both breaking balls, especially the curve, could use to add a little more bite but he has time to figure that out. A big guy that throws with some effort, he does a good job of controlling the strike zone given his age and explosive stuff, and he has a chance to work his way up as a potential mid-rotation starter. However, he is a long, long way away from the majors and will need considerable development to stick in the rotation.
Lastly, the lone established major leaguer in the deal is Luke Voit. Eric Hosmer was originally slated to come to DC, but he used his no trade clause to stay out of the cellar of the National League East and will instead head to Boston. Voit rose to fame as the Yankees' power hitting first baseman from 2018-2020, though his production has fallen off a bit over the past couple of seasons and in 2022 he's slashing .225/.317/.416 with 13 home runs in 82 games. Those aren't numbers a playoff team can afford from a first baseman in a starting role, but he may just be the best hitter in a decimated Nationals lineup that will struggle to put up runs for the rest of the season. In that sense, he's really a replacement for Josh Bell just so the team is at least somewhat close to watchable. He's under team control through the 2024 season, which means the Nationals could shop him again at any point until then and look to bring back some prospect talent, or they could find a way to get him back to his 2018-2020 form and keep him around as a potential long term piece in a best case scenario. The difference between now and then is that he's seeing more offspeed stuff and has been more prone to chasing pitches out of the zone or getting out in front and getting under them, so working on handling that offspeed stuff should be an area of emphasis to reclaim his former glory.
So like I mentioned, I see this as a light return for Soto, but my bigger issue lies in player development. The Nationals are very, very traditional in their talent evaluation and player development, which puts them way behind the times and more than anything is why the system plummeted to the worst in baseball before the 2021 trade deadline. They've made incremental improvements lately, including increasing the size of their player development staff and finally adding Hawkeye tracking technology to their stadiums, but to this point it has not born fruit. The players in this deal, aside from James Wood, have extremely traditional profiles with easily identifiable strengths and weaknesses. That means if anything, they're likely overvalued in the market, not undervalued. Don't get me wrong, I think most of these kids even aside from Wood will turn into very good ballplayers, but I would have liked to have seen Mike Rizzo get more creative. For example, the Yankees just brought back Clayton Beeter for Joey Gallo despite poor surface numbers, but his wicked raw stuff and overall unique traits as a pitcher make him a very intriguing, potentially undervalued arm. Rizzo would never buy low on hidden gems like that, rather opting for the traditional profiles like I explained above.
I saw reports about the Nationals having a top eight or top five farm system right now, and unfortunately I wholly disagree. The top of the system is now packed, which is awesome. In addition to the names above, guys like Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, and Luis Garcia are ready to form a longtime core at the major league level, while Rizzo has stockpiled a very interesting group of young bats in the low minors headlined by Elijah Green, Jeremy De La Rosa, Brady House, Sammy Infante, TJ White, Cristhian Vaquero, Roismar Quintana, and Brenner Cox. But very little of that offensive talent has worked its way to the upper minors just yet, and the pitching depth is just non-existent in a system where Rizzo still looks for traditional, big conference performers with refined, if ordinary, arsenals. He's not uncovering hidden gems in the middle rounds, where the team often selects Jacob Young's with traditional profiles rather than Nick Nastrini's that just need you to get a little creative. So as great as this system may look on a top twenty prospects list, the fundamental issues that have led to much of that improvement coming inorganically are still very much there and will limit the next competitive window if nothing changes.
I guess I ended this way-too-long article with some doom and gloom, and the truth is that I'm not happy with the direction of this team under Mike Rizzo. But there is certainly room for optimism. The Nationals now have a real farm system for the first time in years. That group of young hitters I mentioned a paragraph above – I'm actually very interested in them and I think it's a legitimate group. Young hitters are often the best place to invest. I also mentioned that the team finally seems to be getting serious about player development. I wasn't happy with their draft class this year outside of the first pick, Elijah Green, but I did love that Green pick. A future lineup featuring three of Green, Wood, Hassell, De La Rosa, Vaquero, Quintana, and Daylen Lile in the outfield sounds great to me. They've got Ruiz behind the plate and Israel Pineda looks like a viable backup option long term. Around the infield, names like Abrams, Garcia, House, Infante, and Jake Alu look at least moderately interesting if not quite as exciting as the outfield group. And I haven't mentioned the pitchers by name, but between Gray, Gore, Susana, Cade Cavalli, Cole Henry, Rodney Theophile, Mitchell Parker, and Jackson Rutledge, we should find at least a couple long term starting pitchers and the bullpen group of Matt Cronin, Zach Brzykcy, Gerardo Carrillo, and Jose Ferrer should produce at least one long term piece in addition to whoever falls out of the rotation. It's going to take a long time, perhaps until around the middle of the decade, but at least the Soto band-aid is now off and things can start to move full steam ahead.
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