Showing posts with label Wyatt Hendrie. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wyatt Hendrie. Show all posts

Saturday, August 28, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

Full list of draftees

Picking first overall automatically puts you in a great position, and like the Tigers last year, I think the Pirates nailed it. They went way below slot to grab Henry Davis at the very top, but he's absolutely a top-tier talent and I don't think they cheated themselves in doing so. However, that strategy did allow them to give out massive over slot deals to three of the most talented high school players in the country with their next three picks, part of which they paid for by spending a combined $20,000 in the fifth and sixth rounds. As if it wasn't enough to bring in Anthony Solometo, Lonnie White Jr., and Bubba Chandler behind Davis, they went out and surprised everybody by signing Braylon Bishop to a reasonable over slot deal in the 14th round, which is already looking like the steal of the draft.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-1: C Henry Davis, Louisville. My rank: #3.
I had Jack Leiter and Marcelo Mayer ranked ahead of Henry Davis on my board, but really I saw the three of them as the first tier and the difference between Davis and #4 Brady House was greater than the difference between him and #2 Mayer. So given that the Pirates saved a boatload of money here that they spread around the draft, I think they made the right move with the first overall selection. Davis has been absolutely unstoppable since the start of the 2020 season, slashing .370/.482/.670 with 18 home runs and a 28/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. While many other hitters slumped to start the season, he began the year on a 21 game hitting streak (23 if you go back to 2020) and immediately embarked on a 16 game streak after that one snapped, and he didn't even strike out until his eighth game of the season. There are very few holes in Davis' offensive game. He starts from a bit of a crouched setup and stays low but level throughout his swing, keeping his eyes behind his barrel and creating plenty of leverage from that strong base. The result is plus power that comes with extremely high exit velocities, so even when he's not putting it over the fence, he's stinging screaming line drives that consistently find grass unless they're hit right at somebody. His simple, controlled operation at the plate also combines with his strong eye to really limit strikeouts, running just a 10.5% rate this spring even against the ACC's particularly tough schedule. The New Yorker from northern Westchester County identifies balls from strikes and fastballs from offspeed, then has no trouble catching up to whatever he decides is a good pitch to hit. Overall, the result is a very complete hitter that could hit 25-30 home runs a year or more while getting on base at a high clip, which would put him among the best catchers in the league. Defensively, he got to Louisville with a similar "strong arm, fringy glove" perception that follows most high school catchers, but he's worked to improve that. The arm now grades out as among the best in the class, an absolute cannon that very few dare to run on, and when they did, he nabbed 13/28 (46.4%). Davis definitely still stands out more for his arm than his glove, but the latter has really improved and most would consider him an average defender in that regard, and with robot umpires likely coming in the near future, pitch framing may not be a factor soon anyways. Those familiar with Davis note that he's a tireless worker that grinds out practices and workouts, so he should continue to get better and better. This is serious all star catcher upside. He signed for $6.5 million, which was nearly $2 million below slot value, and he's slashing .308/.387/.808 with three home runs in eight games so far between the FCL and High A Greensboro.

2-37: LHP Anthony Solometo, Bishop Eustace HS [NJ]. My rank: #27.
This is a huge talent to get in the second round, and he signed for close to the slot value of the 24th overall pick. If you ask his proponents, they would tell you Anthony Solometo was the second best high school pitcher in the class behind only third overall pick Jackson Jobe, and it's hard to find people who don't like him. He has a very unique operation on the mound, starting with a wide first step and a high leg kick in which his knee nearly touches his chin, then continuing with an extremely pronounced arm circle in which he reaches the baseball way back towards third base before whipping all the way back into place and firing towards home plate. He's an exceptional athlete and despite limbs flying in every direction, it's very loose overall and he repeats his delivery surprisingly well. Solometo's fastball sits in the low 90's and has touched 96, while his slider has continually improved and now flashes plus with late bite and nice depth. For now, he mainly pitches off those two, but he can unveil a changeup when he needs it and it shows some promise once he starts working it more consistently. The 6'3" lefty pours strikes into the zone and even shows the ability to locate them, something you don't always see from teenage pitchers and especially not ones with unconventional deliveries. You can get unorthodox pitchers with strong command, but usually they have to go to school first to get more consistent with their funky deliveries before they settle in. The Pirates will want to continue to work with the South Jersey native to ensure it holds up over an increased pro workload, as well as add a changeup, but they're starting from a really good spot. Committed to UNC, he signed for $2.8 million, which was roughly $800,000 above slot value.

CBB-64: OF Lonnie White Jr., Malvern HS [PA]. My rank: #32.
In Lonnie White Jr., the Pirates are getting a supreme athlete who was actually committed to Penn State to play football as well as baseball. As with most two-sport stars, he's relatively raw on the baseball diamond, but when you take his split focus into account he actually looks extremely natural out there. White packs a ton of lean strength into his 6'3" frame and produces above average raw power from the right side, using a surprisingly smooth and leveraged swing to get to that power in games. He also shows good feel for hitting and selects good pitches to hit, something that most two-sport stars lag behind in, though White does need some more time to get his timing down against premium stuff. As you'd expect from a Big Ten wide receiver, the Coatesville native (far western Philadelphia suburbs) has plus speed and for that reason has a chance to stick in center field, though he'll need to refine his reads and routes. There's a ton of upside here as a potential 20-20 threat who could pop for 30 homers at his peak, and if his hit tool takes its natural progression once he starts focusing on baseball only, we could see some solidly high on-base percentages as well. I'm personally bought into White's upside and I think the Pirates are getting a future star here, so I love the pick. He signed for $1.5 million, which was roughly $450,000 above slot value, and he's picked up three hits in five at bats so far in the FCL.

3-72: RHP/SS Bubba Chandler, North Oconee HS [GA]. My rank: #34.
Eight picks after stealing one of Penn State head coach James Franklin's incoming wide receivers, the Pirates turned their attention to Clemson's Dabo Swinney and grabbed one of his incoming quarterbacks. Bubba Chandler is a Georgia sports superstar, who could have been drafted quite early as a position player and is also a four star QB, but his upside as a pitcher is higher than all else and the Pirates will take him in that direction. Chandler was on the radar over the summer but more in the second to third round range, but came out this spring with a big uptick in his stuff that bumped him up into first round conversation. His fastball now sits consistently in the low to mid 90's and has been popping some 97's, with even more likely to come. He throws a hammer of a curveball that looks plus at its best, while his changeup is very advanced for a high schooler and even flashes plus when he grips it just right. Everything comes from an athletic, fluid delivery that enables him to throw consistent strikes and hold his stuff deep into games. Now that the 6'3" righty is dropping football and likely hitting soon as well, he has a chance to take off even further and develop into an ace. To reach that lofty ceiling, he'll have to refine his command a bit further and it wouldn't hurt to get a little more confident in his slider, which very much functions as his fourth pitch for now. It looks like the Pirates might use him as a hitter as well a bit early on where, he shows above average power from both sides of the plate and his above average speed and cannon arm could make him an asset at shortstop. Chandler signed for $3 million, which was more than $2.1 million above slot value and roughly the slot value for the 22nd overall pick, while he actually has one hit in eleven at bats in the FCL.

4-102: RHP Owen Kellington, U-32 HS [VT]. Unranked.
Vermont ranks near the bottom of the fifty states when it comes to producing baseball talent, so Owen Kellington's selection here in the fourth round means a great deal to the Green Mountain State. Kellington was a bit off the radar considering he wasn't seen much on the summer showcase circuit and played his high school ball over one hundred miles from Albany, Manchester, and Portland, the closest major cities, and roughly 150 miles from Boston (though he's technically just within a hundred miles of Montreal). For now, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has topped out around 93-94, which isn't quite overpowering yet but he's not done adding velocity. His main weapon is a hammer curveball with big depth that will only get better as he adds more power to it, though he needs to work on his changeup further. The 6'3" righty has plenty of room to grow into his frame and the Pirates will certainly work with him on his delivery, where he loses some stability when he leans backwards towards first base mid stride. As you'd expect with a high school pitcher drafted in this range, there's plenty of upside, but of course plenty of risk in a less-seen prep arm from off the beaten prospect path. Committed to UConn, he signed for $600,000, which was $28,600 above slot value.

5-133: 3B Jackson Glenn, Dallas Baptist. Unranked.
This guy has been around a while. Jackson Glenn played two years at Grayson JC in North Texas, then transferred back home to Dallas Baptist less than ten miles from where he grew up. He's been there for three years, so as a fifth year senior he's now set to turn 24 in October. He wasn't really on the prospect radar until this year, when he broke out for a monster season and slashed .366/.438/.732 with 21 home runs and a 33/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, leading the Patriots' furious charge first to the NCAA Tournament and then on to a third super regional game against Virginia, where he got on base in all four of his plate appearances in the team's season-ending loss. It's certainly an interesting profile for Glenn, who was older than most (but not all) of his competition this spring and had clearly progressed to another level, to the point where he really just looked extremely at home in the box at all times and was able to execute his game plan pretty much at will. He found the barrel extremely consistently and sprayed line drives all over the field, and because he was so comfortable, he could sit on pitches to turn on and that's where most of his 21 home runs came from. It will be interesting to see how he transitions to pro ball over a larger sample because he's clearly ready, and he should move very quickly. Against pro competition, it's probably an average power, average hit type of deal, which would produce maybe 10-15 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages. There's a little bit of split in the industry as to his defensive home, as he's not the quickest at second base but may not have the arm for third base and might be too short (5'11") for first base. The Pirates could try him out as a bat-first second baseman but of course he has Nick Gonzales to contend with (and he's actually a year and a half older than last year's seventh overall pick), with the ultimate projection probably being somewhat of a Nick Solak type of situation (and he comps pretty well to Solak anyways, though Solak was significantly younger when he was drafted out of Louisville). The Dallas-area native signed for $12,500, which was $409,800 below slot value, and he's off to a red-hot start hitting .429/.545/.600 through twelve games, mostly at Low A Bradenton.

7-193: C Wyatt Hendrie, San Diego State. Unranked.
After taking San Diego State shortstop Mike Jarvis in the sixth round, the Pirates went back again and grabbed Aztec catcher Wyatt Hendrie in the seventh. His stock has steadily ticked up and he was drafted in the tenth round by the Cubs out of Antelope Valley JC out in the California desert in 2019, but headed to San Diego State instead. He had a big year in 2021 by slashing .379/.464/.633 with nine home runs and a 25/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games in an admittedly hitter-friendly conference, giving evaluators confidence that he'll provide some offensive value in pro ball. Hendrie has a bit of a similar operation at the plate to first overall pick Henry Davis, coming from a bit of a crouched stands and staying low through his swing so he can get his eyes behind the ball. He doesn't have quite as much loft as Davis and of course is at least a full grade below in both power and hit, while his load is also a bit more pronounced with scissor-like extension in his lower half. The Palmdale, California native makes a ton of contact like Davis and regularly finds the barrel against solid pitching, proving to be extremely difficult to strike out (just 12% this spring). While he did significantly increase his power output this spring, he's still below average in that regard and the ball doesn't always jump off his barrel like some of the higher picks in this class, especially with wood. Behind the plate, he's new to catching and it shows at times, though he's a great athlete that has taken to it quickly and should be roughly average in that regard. Overall, he probably projects for 8-10 home runs with solid, batting average-driven on-base percentages in pro ball, which is a backup profile especially when you're stuck behind Henry Davis. Hendrie signed for $177,500, which was $67,400 below slot value, and is hitting .190/.217/.381 through seven games in the FCL.

8-223: RHP Sean Sullivan, California. My rank: #209.
Sean Sullivan has been an interesting one for a while over at Cal. He was so-so as an 18 year old freshman in 2019 but was a superstar in the elite Cape Cod League that summer (2.08 ERA, 48/7 K/BB in 43.1 IP), where he was one of the youngest players in the league (if not the youngest, but I don't feel like combing through rosters to confirm that). That summer, he showed a low 90's fastball, a sharp slider, and a solid curveball and changeup, and he commanded it all well to miss bats. Given his extreme youth, he had a chance to pitch his way into the first round conversation in 2021, but ultimately he's never quite regained that form in the two years since. In 2021, Sullivan put up a 3.68 ERA and a 75/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings. The above average command has held up from that Cape run, and in fifteen starts he never walked more than three batters or allowed more than four runs, earned or unearned. The stuff, though, has all ticked down a half grade. His fastball sits closer to 90 now while still scraping the mid 90's when he needs it, while his slider is a solid average pitch and remains his out pitch even if it's not a true weapon. The curveball and changeup are a bit fringier but flash average. The Los Angeles-area native has an uptempo delivery that reminds me a bit of Carson Fulmer, but he's a great athlete that repeats it well and gets good extension down the mound. Age is a major bonus here, as he won't turn 21 until October and is therefore up to a full year (or more) younger than many of his classmates, so he can be evaluated somewhat as a J2 player rather than a college junior. There's not a ton of projection left in his skinny 6'1" frame and he probably won't add more than a tick of velocity, but the Pirates are hoping that youth can help him regain some sharpness in his secondary stuff and outplay his #4 starter projection. Sullivan signed for $175,000, which was $17,900 below slot value.

10-283: RHP Justin Meis, Eastern Michigan. Unranked.
The Pirates second and third picks, Anthony Solometo and Lonnie White Jr., grew up on the New Jersey and Pennsylvania sides of the Philadelphia suburbs, respectively, so you could call them semi-hometown picks. Justin Meis is a true Yinzer though, a graduate of Bethel Park High School less than ten miles south of downtown Pittsburgh, and he headed northwest up to Eastern Michigan for college. While his stats in Ypsilanti haven't been eye-popping, he's gotten better and better and in 2021 had a 4.64 ERA and an 81/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings, and he showed well in the Cape Cod League by allowing just two runs and putting up a 16/2 strikeout to walk ratio in 14 innings over his final three starts. Meis brings a low 90's fastball that can touch the mid 90's in short stints, adding an inconsistent slider that looks like a weapon at its best but can flatten out at times. He also throws a changeup with nice fade, rounding out a solid three pitch arsenal. Though he has a long arm path and a somewhat high effort delivery, he repeats that delivery well and pounds the strike zone. The 6'2" righty might have some starter upside if the Pirates want to be patient and smooth some things out, but it might be best to just stick him in the bullpen and let the stuff tick up. If he gets there quickly, he could join David Bednar and give the Pirates two Pittsburgh products in their bullpen. Meis signed for $127,500, which was $22,000 below slot value, and he's allowed four runs (two earned) through 8.1 innings at Low A Bradenton, striking out ten.

13-373: RHP Owen Sharts, Nevada. My rank: #199.
This is a real sleeper for Pittsburgh. Owen Sharts was a well-known prospect out of high school, but ended up on campus at Nevada and leaves with his stock a little bit in flux. This spring, Sharts was off to a peculiar start with a 5.12 ERA and a 35/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, then went down with Tommy John surgery in April. So after a shortened 2020 season in which he only threw 22 innings and a full freshman season that's now two years behind us, it's difficult to get a handle on who Sharts is now, let alone who he will be when he returns from surgery in 2022. So far in his Nevada career, he has sat in the low 90's with his fastball and climbed to about 95, while his curveball has flashed true plus and can be an absolute weapon. He also throws a changeup that flashes average. The 6'2" righty has a pretty clean delivery and a history of providing consistent strikes, even if his control was perhaps a touch ahead of his command, but that control completely fell apart in 2021 before his injury. If he lost the strike zone simply because he wasn't feeling right, then the Pirates have a legitimate starting pitching prospect on their hands given his velocity and the presence of a plus offspeed pitch. He'll have to get it back though, because what we saw in 2021 was unplayable. The Los Angeles-area native signed for $125,000.

14-403: OF Braylon Bishop, Arkansas HS [AR]. My rank: #119.
This pick wasn't particularly surprising given that the Pirates drafted numerous high schoolers early that would require large over slot bonuses, so having Braylon Bishop as a backup plan in case one of them didn't sign was smart. What was surprising was that he turned out to be part of Plan A, and even though Pittsburgh got deals done with all of their expensive preps, he still signed for just sixth round money. Once he made it out of the draft's second day, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that he was going to prove his tools at Arkansas, and this bonus was surprisingly low. Anyways, the Pirates are getting a supreme talent in Bishop who simply hasn't put it together yet. He's been a known commodity for a while now, showing up at numerous showcase events and standing out among his ultra-talented peers with some of the best tools in the class. The Texarkana native has plus raw power from the left side, a product of exceptional bat speed and plenty of loft in his uppercut hack. He's also a plus runner that can really change a game on the basepaths, and overall he just does things on the field that others can't. However, he's really struggled with inconsistency and has gone through stretches where he just looks overwhelmed. Bishop has long had a lot of moving parts in his swing, whipping the bat in all sorts of directions and changing his eye level, but he did come out this spring with a much cleaner looking operation. He still struggles with swing and miss, but Pittsburgh is hoping that more time with his simplified approach and a few more tweaks can get him going in that regard. He'll stick in center field, which takes some pressure off the bat, with his speed and a strong arm making him an asset as he continues to refine his game. There is a huge offensive ceiling here with the chance to post 20-20 or even 30-30 seasons, but it will take a lot of work. He signed for $268,700, of which $143,200 counts against the Pirates' bonus pool, and he has two singles in nine at bats so far in the FCL.

Sunday, February 28, 2021

An Early Look at the Low and Mid-Major Conferences (West): 2021 MLB Draft

Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on January 22nd.

Last time, we talked about the loaded crop of mid-major talent east of the Mississippi River, from pitchers Sam Bachman and Mason Black to bats Ethan Wilson and Hunter Goodman. The west side of the river isn’t quite as fertile at this point, especially beyond Sam Houston State’s Colton Cowser, but it should be interesting nonetheless. The states of California and Texas dominate here, combining to produce eight out of the ten names. If the list had gone to thirteen, it would have been eleven of thirteen. This is also a pitcher-heavy group, as after Cowser, slots two through six bring five arms in a row.

1. OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3″, 195 lbs. Born 3/20/2000. Hometown: Cypress, TX
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.

Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs had quite the team a few years ago. Pitchers J.J. Goss and Matthew Thompson went 36th and 45th overall in 2019 to the Rays and White Sox, respectively, while another pitcher, Ty Madden, ended up at Texas and is a potential first round pick in 2021. Outfielder Colton Cowser was probably the fourth best player on that team and headed to Sam Houston State. However, after slashing .361/.450/.602 with seven home runs and a nice 29/26 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games as a freshman, he rocketed himself into the national conversation. An unremarkable start to 2020 (.255/.379/.364, 1 HR, 9/8 K/BB) may not have built his case further, but it didn’t do much to damper it and he’s easily the best mid-major prospect west of the Mississippi River.

First and foremost, Cowser stands out for his feel to hit. He has struck out in just 11.9% of his plate appearances at Sam Houston State, keeping low swing and miss rates and low chase rates on not only fastballs but offspeed pitches as well. It’s not just pure bat to ball skills with Cowser, as he also shows plus feel for the barrel that enables him to consistently drive the ball into the gaps and pop for some home runs too. He’s an above average runner who has stolen 14/16 bases for the Bearkats and should stick in center field, further adding to his leadoff profile.

At a wiry 6’3″, some evaluators think he can grow into above average power. He knocked 31 extra base hits (including seven home runs) as a freshman and added three doubles and a homer in 2020, all despite utilizing a flat swing that has led to a 46% ground ball rate. His proponents see that plus feel for the barrel, room to grow, and potential to add loft and can see 20-25 home runs per year. Some pessimists, however, don’t think he’ll get much bigger and will point to unremarkable exit velocities to say he projects for closer to 10-15. Regardless, it’s a first round profile for the Houstonian, one that can sit atop a big league lineup for years.

2. LHP Rodney Boone, UC Santa Barbara

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’2″, 175 lbs. Born 4/9/2000. Hometown: Orange, CA
2019-2020: 10-1, 2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 111/40 K/BB in 102.1 IP.

Some people really, really like Rodney Boone, while others aren’t as impressed. Regardless, it’s one of the more interesting profiles in this year’s draft. Boone has been as steady as they come for UC Santa Barbara, winning ten of eleven decisions and posting a 2.73 ERA across more than 100 innings, striking out 111 and walking 40 along the way. Now, the school that gave us Shane Bieber, Dillon Tate, and Ben Brecht in recent drafts has another potential Day One arm.

Boone is unique among Day One hopefuls in that he does not throw hard at all. Throughout his time in Santa Barbara, his fastball has typically sat in the mid to upper 80’s, but his stock has risen lately with reports he was hitting 90 this fall. Even with the velocity bump, he’s still fringy in that regard, but he gets good spin rates on the pitch and hitters don’t seem to pick it up. The Orange County native also adds a potentially plus changeup that generates a ton of whiffs, tunneling very well off his fastball and again proving difficult to pick up. His curveball is his third pitch for now, as he tends to bounce it. Hitters haven’t chased it much to this point, but they often swing and miss when they attempt at it, so getting more confident in the pitch could help him take another step forward.

Boone has some work to do, considering his fringy velocity gives him very few benefits of the doubt. First and foremost, he needs to maintain this slight uptick in velocity and perhaps even add another tick this spring, as 88 with good pitch data is still 88. His control also still stands out ahead of his command, which will be important when he can’t sneak as many 88 MPH fastballs by pro hitters as he can in the Big West. That’s another reason maintaining and improving upon his velocity gains will be important. The ceiling here is very interesting, however, with a very deceptive lefty who could potentially sit low 90’s with two above average secondary offerings and above average command.

3. RHP Trenton Denholm, UC Irvine

Bat: R. Throw: R. 5’11”, 190 lbs. Born 11/29/1999. Hometown: El Dorado Hills, CA
2018-2020: 15-14, 2.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 166/55 K/BB in 197.2 IP.

Sticking with crafty arms in the UC system, we’ll turn next to Irvine’s Trenton Denholm. The Anteater ace was eligible in 2020, but he was extremely young for his class and returns to campus for a fourth year while fitting right in age-wise with many other first-time eligible college players. Denholm has been absolutely lights out since the end of his freshman season, putting up a 1.90 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 118/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings for UC Irvine the last two seasons while also shoving for 32.2 (!) shutout innings (one unearned run) over two summers on the Cape. Now, with a similar birthday to much of this year’s college class, he has one of the best overall track records of all.

Denholm’s stuff isn’t explosive, but he still leaves hitters shaking their heads. The fastball sits around 90, usually a tick above up to about 92-93. He throws a distinct curveball and slider, both of which are solid average pitches. His plus changeup is his best pitch, just fading and fading away from the left handed batters into some dark abyss. The Sacramento-area native shows above average command, but even that plays up because he’s absolutely fearless on the mound and will pound the zone with everything he has.

Denholm is far from the most physical arm in California, listed at a skinny 5’11”, but that hasn’t stopped him. Though he doesn’t project to add much velocity, it’s really easy to fall in love with his feel for pitching and bulldog mentality, and the results back it up. Denholm projects as a back-end starter or a long reliever due to his lack of velocity and swing and miss breaking stuff, but I wouldn’t bet against him.

4. RHP Dominic Hamel, Dallas Baptist

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 205 lbs. Born 3/2/1999. Hometown: Chandler, AZ
2020: 2-0, 4.58 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 27/7 K/BB in 19.2 IP.

Interestingly, Dominic Hamel is actually draft-eligible for the fifth year in a row in 2021. After graduating from Hamilton High School in the Phoenix suburbs in 2017, he spent two years at Yavapai JC, then transferred to Dallas Baptist for the 2020 season. Hamel started off strong, allowing one earned run while striking out 19 over twelve innings against South Dakota State and UNC, but faltered against Arkansas State and Oral Roberts by allowing nine earned runs in 7.2 innings. Ultimately, it wasn’t enough to get drafted in the shortened event.

Hamel really interests progressive clubs that are confident in their pitching development (hint hint, @Rays). To this point, he hasn’t quite put everything together, but he does have a lot going for him. The Phoenix-area native sits comfortably in the low 90’s, topping out around 96, but makes the pitch play up significantly with great extension. He adds a pair of high spin breaking balls in a curve and slider, both of which can flash above average, though they’re inconsistent to this point. Hamel’s changeup isn’t much of a factor yet.

The 6’2″ righty has a sturdy, athletic frame, and his strike throwing ability has improved to near average. A data-savvy team will be eager to get their hands on his high spin stuff, and they could have a lot of fun tinkering with ways to play one pitch off another. Improving his consistency and adding a changeup will be key to raising Hamel’s floor, especially given that he’ll be 22 in March. The ceiling, though, is that of a mid-rotation starter, with a fallback option as a two or three pitch reliever that could sit more consistently in the mid 90’s with a true plus fastball.

5. RHP Tanner Bibee, Cal State Fullerton

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 190 lbs. Born 3/5/1999. Hometown: Mission Viejo, CA
2018-2020: 9-15, 3.92 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 169/52 K/BB in 181.1 IP.

Cal State Fullerton is a talent pipeline that has recently churned out tons of pitchability-types including Tom Eshelman, Connor Seabold, John Gavin, and Colton Eastman, and now Tanner Bibee looks to be next. He was steady over his first two years (4.15 ERA, 136/47 K/BB in 151.2 IP) and took a nice step forward in 2020 (2.73 ERA, 33/5 K/BB in 29.2 IP) against a pretty strong non-conference slate that included Stanford and Texas. He also showed well in the Cape Cod League in 2019 (3.38 ERA, 19/4 K/BB in 18.2 IP), giving himself a pretty strong track record to compete with arms who might have louder stuff.

Bibee hangs out in the low 90’s with his fastball, topping out around 93. The pitch plays up because he puts tough angle on the ball, pitching from the far third base side of the rubber and hiding the ball well from a closed off delivery. His slider is probably his best pitch, coming in around 80 with late tilt and flashing above average. At this point, the changeup grades out as below average, looking pretty flat most of the time. With above average command and pitchability, everything works together well.

It’s a pretty safe back-end starter profile for the Orange County native. While Bibee doesn’t possess even an average changeup unlike many of his peers in that demographic, he stands out a bit for his above average breaking ball. Teams looking to get a quick-to-the-big-leagues arm and perhaps save a little money in the process will be very interested in the 6’2″ righty, who was off to a hot start in 2020.

6. RHP Braden Olthoff, Tulane

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 220 lbs. Born 3/12/1999. Hometown: Vista, CA
2020: 4-0, 0.32 ERA, 0.54 WHIP, 47/3 K/BB in 28 IP.

Few pitchers can match Braden Olthoff’s meteoric rise in recent years. A lightly recruited high school hitter, he picked up pitching as a senior and landed at Palomar College with a mid 80’s fastball. Two years later, he transferred to Tulane with increased velocity and shoved; over four starts, he allowed one earned run and just fifteen baserunners while striking out 47 of the 101 batters he faced, good for the third best ERA, third most strikeouts, and fourth best WHIP in Division I (min. 20 innings). He went undrafted last year, but has a chance to continue his climb in 2021 (though I’m pretty sure he’s reached his ceiling as far as performance goes). Though he didn’t face the strongest competition, he did out-duel Tanner Bibee with a complete game, sixteen strikeout shutout against Cal State Fullerton.

Since high school, the 6’4″ Olthoff has added about six or seven miles per hour to his fastball and now sits in the low 90’s, topping out around 94. He mixes in an average curveball with nice depth that he can also morph into a slider, working well between the two. Olthoff’s best pitch is probably his changeup, which gets above average grades and plays well off his other three pitches. Of course, everything plays up due to plus command and pitchability, as well as the ability to hide the ball behind his 6’4″ frame. Also going in the San Diego-area native’s favor is durability, as he throws almost effortlessly and is built like a prototypical starting pitcher.

Once you get to Day Two in the draft, it can get difficult to differentiate between a glut of pitchability arms. Olthoff stands out due to his 2020 performance, first and foremost, but also due to his trajectory. He has not only improved, but leapt forward every year since high school. It might be hard to project yet another big leap in 2021, but slight improvements to his breaking balls or perhaps another tick on his fastball could push him into top 100 consideration, especially if he goes out and shoves like he did in 2020.

7. C Shane McGuire, San Diego

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6′, 195 lbs. Born 4/12/1999. Hometown: Kent, WA
2018-2020: 3 HR, .320/.442/.407, 7 SB, 65/75 K/BB in 117 games.

Shane McGuire gives us a sixth straight player who was eligible in 2020 but returned to school. The younger brother of Blue Jays catcher Reese McGuire, Shane won’t match his brother’s first round pedigree but has a chance to be a similar player. He has improved every year at San Diego and was off to a blazing start in 2020, slashing .469/.561/.688 with one home run and just two strikeouts in twelve games. That came on the heels of a .325/.444/.401 sophomore season and he has a great track record with wood bats, which is made even better by the fact that he will likely stick behind the plate.

McGuire stands out most for his plate discipline. After striking out in 16.7% of his plate appearances as a freshman in 2018, he cut that to 10.6% in 2019 and then just 4.9% in the shortened 2020 season, all while walking a combined 14.8% of the time over three years (vs. a 12.8% overall K rate). McGuire works counts, selects hittable pitches while letting the bad ones go, and makes contact with the ones he does select. He has some loft and whip in his left handed swing, though to this point his power plays well below average despite his feel for the barrel. Learning to get a little more extension could perhaps get him closer to 45-50 grade pop.

The Seattle-area native shows a strong, accurate arm behind the plate that helps him control the running game. His glovework is a bit choppier, but he’s gotten better in that regard and being the brother of a big league catcher will continue to work in his favor. Unless he really improves his power output, it’s hard to project McGuire as a future starter, but his elite plate discipline and long track record of getting on base give him a high floor. He’s one of the safer-bet backup catchers in this year’s draft once you get into Day Two of the draft.

8. SS Wyatt Young, Pepperdine

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’7″, 160 lbs. Born 12/5/1999. Hometown: Honolulu, HI
2019-2020: 2 HR, .311/.357/.350, 5 SB, 44/17 K/BB in 64 games.

Listed at 5’7″, 160 pounds, Wyatt Young is one of the smallest players in this year’s draft and will earn plenty of comparisons to former Oregon State shortstop Nick Madrigal. He’s put up a nice track record over two years in Malibu, slashing .311/.357/.350 over 64 games, and he also put up an impressive .340/.413/.440 line over 42 games in the Cape Cod League in 2019. With Eric Thames signing to play in Japan and Zach Vincej floating around the upper minors, there are no former Pepperdine Waves in MLB, so Young will look to change that (if A.J. Puckett doesn’t beat him to it).

As with Colton Cowser at the top of this list, Young’s selling point is his bat. He makes extremely easy contact, having struck out in just 14.5% of his plate appearances at Pepperdine and 16.3% on the Cape. However, unlike Shane McGuire just ahead of him on this list, it’s more of a product of pure bat to ball skills than strong plate discipline. Young routinely puts the ball in play early in the count, which to this point has limited his walk rate to 5.6% for the Waves. While he’s adept at finding holes in the defense and poking the ball into gaps, especially to the opposite field, he lacks the physicality to drive the ball to the wall, leading to pretty empty batting averages overall. Defensively, he mans shortstop for Pepperdine, but more athletic and more physical defenders will likely push him to second base in pro ball.

Young’s plus bat to ball skills give him a very high floor in pro ball. He will have no problem putting the ball in play against advanced arms, and on the Cape he showed that he can still find the gaps against those kinds of arms. The Honolulu native’s lack of power likely limits his ceiling, so his path to a full time big league job will rest on getting more patient at the plate and upping that on-base percentage. Still, he likely profiles as a bench option and appeals most to old school teams.

9. RHP Owen Sharts, Nevada

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 175 lbs. Born 11/23/1999. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA
2019-2020: 3-11, 5.70 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 72/42 K/BB in 90 IP.

As of 2018, Owen Sharts was probably the best prospect of these ten players. A potential top five rounds pick, he instead enrolled at Nevada and struggled as a freshman, putting up a 5.96 ERA and a 40/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings. In 2020, he was hit around by Portland and Cal Baptist (combined 9 IP, 10 ER, 18 H), but also showed progress by dominating Oregon and Hofstra (combined 13 IP, 2 ER, 19/3 K/BB). Reno can be a tough place to pitch, and while the ERA hasn’t quite been there, he has done a good job controlling the strike zone and finished with a 32/7 K/BB in 2020. He also looked very good in the Cape Cod League in 2019, his 4.82 ERA hiding the fact that he looked dominant in all but one very rough outing.

Sharts joins the glut of back-end starter types in this group, coming in with a wide array of strengths but no true differentiators. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and he does a good job of holding that velocity, while his downer curveball and changeup project as average while flashing a few 55’s. The command isn’t pinpoint, but the Los Angeles-area native controls the strike zone well by going right after hitters with three big league pitches. He’s not built like a true horse, listed at 6’1″ and 175 pounds, but he has a clean delivery and repeats it pretty well.

To this point, I don’t think Sharts has really differentiated himself like Tanner Bibee has with his slider or Braden Olthoff has with his changeup and performance. In 2021, Sharts could use a little more consistency, as he has a tendency to get blown up when his stuff flattens out. Otherwise, with three big league pitches, good control, and no major red flags, he profiles as a safe bet back-end type for Day Two.

10. RHP Cade Winquest, UT Arlington

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 205 lbs. Born 4/30/2000. Hometown: Haslet, TX
2019-2020: 6-2, 5.28 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 61/35 K/BB in 59.2 IP.

The University of Texas at Arlington, sitting in the shadow of Globe Life Field and AT&T Stadium, has also sat in the shadow of better Sun Belt programs like Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Lafayette, and South Alabama. Their crown jewels are John Lackey (1998), Hunter Pence (2003-2004), and Michael Choice (2008-2010), but no Maverick has gone in the top eight rounds since Zach Thompson in 2014. Cade Winquest may not match Thompson’s fifth round selection, but he’s trending in the right direction and could break out in 2021. He held his own as a freshman starter in 2019 (5.01 ERA, 49/24 K/BB) but never quite got going in 2020 (6.75 ERA, 12/11 K/BB). Only set to turn 21 at the end of April, he’s relatively young for a college junior.

To this point, Winquest has been a starter for the Mavs, and even in that role he’s shown flashes of big potential to go with inconsistency. In short stints, the Fort Worth-area native’s fastball sits in the mid 90’s and can touch the upper 90’s, playing up due to extension well beyond what you’d typically see from someone 6’2″. His high-spin curveball needs more consistency, but it flashes plus regularly and could eventually earn a true 60 grade. He recently added a slider and a splitter, which haven’t been seen much in game action. The command comes and goes, anywhere from fringe average to well below given the day. He walked a reasonable 10.9% as a freshman, but that jumped to 23.4% as a sophomore and 23.2% over the summer.

It’s unclear where Winquest’s future lies. On one hand, he looks like a reliever with two big pitches and very inconsistent command, and that likely tickets him to the bullpen. However, if he can clean up that command a little bit as a junior and show that even one of his two new pitches are for real, we could have a legitimate starting prospect on our hands. It’s still more exciting to picture the Texan in a big league bullpen at this point, where he could throw two legitimate 60-grade pitches (the fastball perhaps reaching 70) and worry less about pacing and command. There will be a lot of eyes in Arlington in 2021.

Other Interesting Low/Mid Major Options in the West

California

Three Californians just missed the list. Perhaps the closest was catcher Wyatt Hendrie, who transferred to San Diego State after a strong career at Antelope Valley CC. The Palmdale native is athletic for a catcher and runs well in addition to showing a strong arm, giving him a chance to continually improve behind the plate. His compact swing produces a lot of line drives and balls in the gaps, though to this point we haven’t seen much in the way of over the fence power. Hendrie controls the strike zone well and since he’ll be 22 in February, he could be a cheaper sign

At UC Riverside, Troy Percival‘s son Cole Percival has one of the better right arms on the West Coast. He sits in the low 90’s and touches 94-95 as a starter, getting nice sinking action on the fastball that proves difficult to pick up. Percival also adds an average slider and a fringy changeup. The 6’5″ righty throws strikes but his control is ahead of his command, and his fastball/slider combination would likely play up better in the bullpen. Percival was eligible in 2020 and will turn 22 in February.

Lastly, Michael McGreevy has been lights out for two years at UC Santa Barbara (7-1, 1.64 ERA, 79/20 K/BB), and since he won’t be 21 until July, he’s much younger than Hendrie and Percival. The Southern Californian sits around 90 with his sinker and adds a 12-6 curveball with good depth as well as a decent slider and changeup. Nothing pops out, but he throws strikes with all four pitches and his easy delivery portends well to a future in the rotation, while his projectable 6’4″ frame could help him get more consistently into the low 90’s.

Texas

A couple of Lone Star catchers stand out, including Dominic Hamel’s battery-mate Ryan Wrobleski. The Minneapolis-area native transferred in from Northern Iowa Area CC and has a lot to like. He’s a sound defender behind the plate who will stick, which makes his bat more attractive. Wrobleski generates above average raw power from a forceful right handed swing that can get long at times, and with seven home runs in the Northwoods League and three in fourteen games for Dallas Baptist, he has tapped it in games. Evaluators will want to see him tap that power over a full season in 2021 and keep the swing and miss down, especially on offspeed pitches.

Rice’s Justin Collins has a similar profile, though he’s already 22 and was eligible in 2020. The Houston native popped 13 home runs and slashed .262/.380/.403 over his first two seasons with the Owls, but slumped to .190/.352/.214 in 2020 and went undrafted. Collins has a bit of a noisy setup and can be streaky, showing a patient approach but swinging and missing a lot when he gets out of whack (42.6% K rate in 2020). His glove will require more work than Wrobleski’s, but he has the ability to stick with good coaching.

Elsewhere

Texoma area scouts are well acquainted with Adam Oviedo, who was a top five round prospect coming out of high school south of Fort Worth in 2017. Oviedo first played at TCU, where he rebounded from a rough freshman season (.228/.319/.257) to show well as a sophomore (.291/.379/.429). Transferring to Oral Roberts, he went undrafted in 2020 despite a hot start (.302/.353/.556) and will return for another year. He has a broad base of skills but no carrying tool, showing a simple, quick swing and a patient approach, but well below average power for most of his career until he hit five home runs in fifteen games in 2020. He’ll likely slide to second base in pro ball, so proving his 2020 home run barrage was at least somewhat for real rather than a fluke will be his key to becoming a big league role player.

Over at Arkansas-Little Rock, we have another undrafted returnee. Aaron Funk rebounded from an awful 2019 (11.45 ERA, 16/20 K/BB) to look lights out in 2020, putting up a 2.01 ERA and a 37/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings (including a 17 strikeout complete game against North Alabama). The Lawrence, Kansas native sits around 90 with his fastball, but it plays up due to the nice extension he gets from his 6’5″ frame. He also flashes an above average curveball with great depth. Funk’s delivery can get a bit rigid, so smoothing it out might help him peak into the low 90’s more often. He probably profiles better as a reliever, where his fastball could get another boost and his inconsistent command won’t be as much of an issue.