2025 MLB Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

Full list of draftees

Pittsburgh planned to play this draft fairly straight up, going a bit under slot in the first round, a bit over in the second, then roughly matching the slot values for the rest of the draft. A wrench was thrown in those plans when second rounder Angel Cervantes turned them down and announced he would follow through on his UCLA commitment, but the Pirates were prepared. Having drafted four high schoolers in rounds 14-20, they re-allocated that extra bonus pool overage money (they did lose $2 million slot value) to give fifth round money to two long term projection plays in McLane Moody and Carter Gwost. Meanwhile, the highlight of this class is still first rounder Seth Hernandez, one of the best high school pitching prospects in recent memory and a potential future co-ace with Paul Skenes down the line. Overall, there are quite a few very interesting profiles in this class and with Pittsburgh's recent development successes, it should be a fun class to follow.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-6: RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS [CA]
Slot value: $7.56 million. Signing bonus: $7.25 million ($308,600 below slot value).
My rank: #1. MLB Pipeline: #3. Baseball America: #2.
I don't think the Pirates could have started off their draft any better than this. While high school right handed pitchers are very risky at the top of the draft, Seth Hernandez is one of the best I have ever seen, arguably the best player in this entire draft class, and came at over a $300,000 discount despite being drafted outside the top five. Hernandez is an extraordinary young arm. His fastball sits comfortably in the mid 90's, regularly topping out in the upper 90's in starts and already touching triple digits. The life on the pitch is average, but at that velocity, it doesn't matter much. Paul Skenes had average life on his 102 MPH heater. His best secondary is a plus-plus changeup with tremendous parachuting action, diving late away from hitters and sending them flailing as they gear up for triple digits. In my book, it may be his best pitch overall. Heading into the season, my primary concern with Hernandez was his feel for spin, but both his breaking balls took a step forward this spring and now profile as above average pitches. The truer curveball is probably the better breaking ball and took the bigger step forward, but his tighter slider gives him a fourth serious weapon. For my money, it is the best four pitch mix in the class at any level. But that's not all with Hernandez – his smooth, athletic delivery enables him to fill up the strike zone with above average command. The Southern California product is a two-way player that has shown very well on the other side of the ball, so while he will certainly be a pitcher-only going forward, it does speak to his athleticism and that is evident on the mound in the way he extends towards the plate with minimal effort. At 6'4", 190 pounds, he has the ideal pitcher's frame and should add significant weight in the coming years, making for the upside of a true ace. To top it all off, the Pirates develop these types of young, ultra athletic projection plays very well, making this a match made in heaven. High school righties always carry risk but Hernandez could form a one-two punch with Skenes in the coming years that will rival any rotation in the league.

2-50: RHP Angel Cervantes, Warren HS [CA]
Slot value: $1.93 million. Signing bonus: did not sign.
My rank: #39. MLB Pipeline: #49. Baseball America: #51.
Sticking in the Southern California high school ranks, the Pirates moved it over just about 32 miles from Corona High School to Warren High School to grab Angel Cervantes. However, they were unable to come to a deal and Cervantes will join the UCLA Bruins while the Pirates will not be able to repurpose the nearly-$2 million in bonus pool space. While he's not as athletic as Seth Hernandez, he matches him in pitchability and the stuff is nothing to sneeze at other. Cervantes' fastball sits in the low 90's and reached as high as 97 this spring, with running action and the ability to sink it when he needs to. He shows a nice sweeping slider that gets nice action across the plate, though it's not always late action, while his curveball has truer 12-6 action that he doesn't always get down enough in the zone. The two can run together at times and get slurvy but it's nice feel for spin overall. Cervantes' changeup, as with Hernandez, is his best pitch, diving late as he pulls the string just before the plate. The 6'3" righty is a great mover on the mound with a loose, athletic delivery that does not require much effort, getting nice extension down the mound as well. He's more loose than explosive and may never approach Hernandez' velocity, but he should add a tick or two to his fastball as he fills out. Cervantes' easy delivery also helps him fill up the zone with above average command, giving him every chance to become a true horse at UCLA.

CBB-73: 3B Murf Gray, Fresno State
Slot value: $1.13 million. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($132,500 below slot value).
My rank: #86. MLB Pipeline: #141. Baseball America: #107.
I find Murf Gray to be a really interesting hitter, and I'm not surprised he went significantly higher than most publications had him ranked. He quickly earned a starting role during his freshman season at Fresno State, then improved each year and especially came on well late in his junior year, homering eleven times in his final eighteen games in 2025. Gray is a big guy listed at 6'4", 230 pounds, but he has always channeled his smooth right handed swing into more of a line drive, free swinging approach. That free swinging approach does limit the power a bit as he tends to swing at everything near the zone, not always finding the best pitch to drive. However, he has gradually gotten better at elevating the ball, improving from 18 extra base hits as a freshman to 29 as a sophomore to 43 as a junior. He gets away with it due to excellent bat to ball ability, holding an extremely impressive 11.1% strikeout rate for his career at Fresno State despite routinely expanding his strike zone. If the Pirates can help him become a bit more selective while continuing to drive the ball in the air a bit more, he has the combination of strength and bat to ball to profile as a 20+ home run, high average type at his ceiling. A strong run through the Cape Cod League last summer (.324/.398/.500) only reinforces that ceiling. Gray's cannon arm helps him profile at third base, but his bigger frame and choppier actions mean he'll need considerable refinement with the glove to stick over there. There is a good shot he moves to first base, which would really put pressure on the bat to come together. It's an interesting boom/bust profile from a college bat.

3-82: C Easton Carmichael, Oklahoma
Slot value: $979,500. Signing bonus: $977,000 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #110. MLB Pipeline: #93. Baseball America: #91.
When I ranked Easton Carmichael #110 on my board, it felt low, and it still feels low. This is a talented ballplayer. A three year starter at Oklahoma, he is a career .336/.387/.558 hitter that has never hit below .300 in a season. Carmichael is loose in the box and whips the barrel through the zone with impressive force, generating average raw power that played a bit below that over his first two seasons in Norman. However, he started elevating the ball better in 2025 and after hitting thirteen home runs in 112 games over his first two seasons combined, he bumped that total to seventeen in 60 games in 2025. The DFW native has always been an aggressive hitter, but he has gotten steadily more selective at the plate and bumped his walk rate from 6.0% in 2023 to 6.9% in 2024 to 9.1% in 2025. He's still aggressive, but now it is more controlled aggression. Carmichael makes up for it a bit with solid bat to ball ability, bringing his strikeout rate to a career-low 15.7% in 2025 and helping him project for a fringe-average or better hit tool in pro ball. A strong run through the Cape Cod League last summer (.299/.372/.496) lends further confidence that he can continue to hit as he moves up the ladder, potentially projecting for 15-20 home runs per season and decent batting averages. Behind the plate, he's a better athlete than most catchers with above average agility, and he has worked hard at Oklahoma to bring his glovework along to match his athleticism. At this point, he seems to have shown enough progress defensively to project to stick as a catcher, which makes the offensive projection much, much more enticing as it has become exceedingly difficult to find catchers who can hit. Carmichael probably projects as a strong backup catcher who could see a few seasons as the primary guy behind the plate in his prime.

4-113: SS Gustavo Melendez, La Merced HS [PR]
Slot value: $674,300. Signing bonus: $671,800 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #143. MLB Pipeline: #140. Baseball America: #123.
Gustavo Melendez gives the Pirates a fun profile here in the fourth round, signing away from a Wake Forest commitment for slot value. Listed at just 5'8", 160 pounds, he's not exactly the biggest guy on the field but he gets it done much like another undersized Pirates infielder, Nick Gonzales. Melendez has a surprisingly explosive left handed swing to produce respectable power despite his smaller size. While he'll probably never be a 20 home run threat, he should be able to flirt with double digits on an annual basis as he continues to hit the weight room. He shines, though, with the hit tool. He takes good at bats and has consistently competed with older talent, deftly maneuvering at bats against pitchers one, two years his senior. The bat to ball is above average here as well, as he keeps that big left handed swing under control and delivers the barrel on time and on plane to drive the ball around the field consistently. He only gets in trouble when he lets the swing get too big. On the other side, he's an average runner that moves well on the dirt, showcasing smooth actions, strong instincts, and the twitch needed to make all the plays at shortstop. His arm is closer to average and he could be pushed off shortstop by a more explosive defender, in which case he could fit as an above average second baseman. Whether Melendez ends up playing every day will likely depend on how much power he can develop, which the Pirates are bullish on given his extreme youth. The Puerto Rican product spent the entire 2025 summer at just 17 years old, making him a full year younger than most of the 2025 high school class and more than fifteen months younger than Pirates first rounder and fellow high schooler Seth Hernandez. He could still grow a bit and turn into a 10-12 home run threat with high on-base percentages and strong infield defense if he reaches his ceiling.

5-144: C Adonys Guzman, Arizona
Slot value: $499,000. Signing bonus: $496,500 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #314.
Adonys Guzman probably didn't receive enough love from the major public boards. Given the near-infinite number of players available to research, you always end up stopping at some point just before the draft and Adonys Guzman was on the short list of the next players I would have gotten to. A top prospect out of high school in Connecticut, he started off at Boston College but played sparingly as a freshman. He transferred across the country to Arizona, where he struggled to hit for impact as a sophomore before finally breaking out with a big junior year in 2025, placing himself back on the prospect map. Always a very disciplined hitter, Guzman started elevating the ball better in 2025 without sacrificing contact, and the results were excellent. He now shows a good chance at average power from a tight, uppercut right handed swing that channels his strength much better than the more off-balance stroke he had often unleashed over his first two seasons. While the bat to ball is fringe-average, his disciplined approach helps keep the swing and miss down and he ran a very reasonable 11.8% strikeout rate. Pittsburgh sees the old Adonys Guzman that hit just .130/.197/.185 in 18 Cape Cod League games as a thing of the past and now believes he can become a solid 15 home run hitter with decent, walk-driven on-base percentages. That bat will play given his glove. Guzman has always stood out for a cannon right arm that effectively shut down the running game against the Wildcats' defense, while his strong glovework makes him a no-doubt catcher at the next level. While that glove was previously going to need to carry him up the ladder, the steps forward with his bat could make him a very well-rounded backstop at the next level. While it still may not be enough to play every day, the New York native profiles as a solid backup with a great glove and some thump in the stick.

9-263: 1B Jared Jones, Louisiana State
Slot value: $206,100. Signing bonus: $203,600 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #148. MLB Pipeline: #101. Baseball America: #205.
Evidently one Jared Jones isn't enough for Pittsburgh. While Jared K. Jones is finishing up his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Jared R. Jones will join the organization as the team's ninth round pick. This Jones was widely known for his prodigious raw power as an Atlanta-area high schooler, but made it to campus at LSU where he became a one-man wrecking crew for the Tigers. In three seasons in Baton Rouge, he joined some of the biggest mashers in college baseball like Dylan Crews and Tommy White and slashed .311/.431/.665 with 64 home runs in 189 games. While he was initially scouted as a bat-first catcher in high school, he has given up the gear but otherwise remains largely the same prospect. Listed at 6'4", 245 pounds, he flicks the barrel through the zone with shocking ease to create plus-plus power and tap every bit of it in games. In fact, his 50 home runs are the most in college baseball over the past two seasons. The ball jumps off his bat to all fields, and he can get out in front of or under a baseball and still send it out to any part of the park. That power is available in the ninth round, of course, because it comes with a ton of swing and miss. He ran abysmal contact rates early in his college career, improved those significantly to start the 2025 season, but fell back to swinging and missing as the season went on and at the end we're left with a guy who will probably strike out 30% of the time in pro ball. Pro pitchers who trust their stuff will attack him in the zone, while those that don't can still get him to chase. Jones will need to shore up his in-zone contact against high-octane stuff and cut his chase rate, but so long as he can continue doing immense damage on contact, he can be a Mark Reynolds type with the bat. He'll need to hit because now that he's no longer catching, his glove is severely limited. He's as well below average athlete that will be confined to first base at best, with a chance he ends up as a full time DH. He turned 22 shortly after the draft, making him older than most college juniors.

13-383: RHP Dylan Mathiesen, Liberty
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Pittsburgh picked up a hometown kid here in the thirteenth round. Dylan Mathiesen grew up in Coraopolis, a Pittsburgh suburb northwest of downtown, and attended Montour High School in nearby McKees Rocks. He began his college career locally at California University of Pennsylvania, then transferred to Liberty as a sophomore where he began as a reliever in 2024 and joined the rotation in 2025. Mathiesen comes from a low three quarters slot and saw a significant velocity bump after working at Tread Athletics, jumping from the mid to upper 80's to touching 95 with Liberty. He adds in a sharp sweeping slider as his primary secondary, then rounds out the arsenal with a curveball and a changeup. With fringy command, he probably fits back in the bullpen in pro ball, where he can lean on the fastball/slider combination and get outs with his deceptive slot.

15-443: RHP McLane Moody, Northside Senior HS [AR]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $460,600 ($310,600 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #354.
With some of the unused money from what would have been Angel Cervantes' over slot bonus, Pittsburgh poured fifth round money onto fifteenth rounder McLane Moody, turning him away from an in-state Arkansas commitment and instead bringing him to Steel City. Moody is a towering 6'7" righty with massive projection on his rail-thin frame. He already sits in the low 90's and touches 96 at peak, coming in with huge riding life from a sky high release point. He snaps a solid curveball in the mid 70's with nice depth and finish, though he'll need to add a bit of power to the pitch for it to be effective against pro hitters. The command can come and go, as Moody is still growing into his body and learning to come fully around his plant leg and can get too closed off at times, causing him to miss arm side. This can be especially true with the breaking ball. As he fills out his big frame and starts to repeat his delivery a bit better, he should grow into more consistent command while adding a tick of power to his arsenal. Developing additional secondary offerings will be another point of emphasis, but Pittsburgh is presently all in on the towering righty with projection to dream on and a fastball already reaching 96.

17-503: OF Carter Gwost, Little Falls HS [MN]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($347,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Carter Gwost, like McLane Moody, was expected to reach campus, but Angel Cervantes' non-signing meant there was still fifth round money available to pry him away from a Nebraska commitment. Gwost is as off-the-radar as it gets, with very little video and information available on him outside of his own Twitter account. Hailing from the small, frozen town of Little Falls, Minnesota nearly one hundred miles northeast of the Twin Cities, he has demolished central Minnesota pitching and the Pirates believe he is only scratching the surface. He has begun packing strength onto his ultra projectable 6'3" frame, helping him generate above average power that could continue to grow into plus in time. It's hard to measure the hit tool given the competition he's faced, but he has shown everything with the bat that the Pirates want to see and the team loves the progress he has made. With a long development road ahead and some good coaching, the Pirates may have snuck a middle of the order masher in at the back of the draft if it all breaks right.

The top ten unsigned college prospects returning to school for 2025

It took me longer than usual to get all my draft reviews done, but with those out of the way, it's time to take a look at the best prospects to eschew pro ball for now. We'll start with the college prospects, and first let's look at the five from last year's list to go unsigned. Of the five, only one had a truly successful season, as #2 Lebarron Johnson (Texas) pitched his way to a fifth round selection by the Rockies. #1 Tanner Witt (Texas) couldn't stay healthy and #4 Christian Little (LSU) stalled, so both signed for slightly above-slot bonuses on day three to the Mets and Mariners, respectively. Meanwhile, #3 Terry Busse (Georgia Tech) and #5 Joseph Gonzalez (Auburn) struggled mightily and went undrafted again.

This year's class of returners is much more robust, likely due to the continued growth of NIL opportunities that give college draftees added leverage. Last year, just five college players on my draft list went unsigned, while this year that number jumped to thirteen. There were a number of themes among those players, chiefly among them big time power combined with hit tool questions. 6/13 fall into that category, while unsurprisingly, youth and eligibility played a big factor. Each of the first six and eight of the top nine have multiple years of eligibility remaining, while six of the top seven will play the entire coming college season at age-21. After Texas took the top two players on last year's list, LSU was the only school to put two on this year's list, and I was surprised to see only one player hit the transfer portal (unsurprisingly to LSU).

1. LHP Ryan Prager, Texas A&M (my rank: #69)
Drafted – 3rd round (pick #81), Los Angeles Angels
This was a surprise. After missing 2023 with Tommy John surgery, Ryan Prager returned in 2024 as one of the best pitchers in the SEC and shot up draft boards due to his feel for pitching and sneaky stuff. Amid the controversy of head coach Jim Schlossnagle's abrupt exit to rival Texas, the Angels drafted Prager in the third round in what seemed like a straightforward sign. Despite the double whammy of being a college arm drafted in the top one hundred picks (usually a guarantee to sign) as well as not having the same head coach to come back to, he still declined Los Angeles and returned to College Station to pitch for new Aggie head coach Michael Earley. That's a massive win and will go a long way to ensuring a smooth transition in College Station. Prager himself is a bit of an old school pitcher. His fastball parks around 90 and tops out at 94, showing massive riding life negated a bit by an ultra high, over the top release point. The pitch shows some cutting action, too, and it got great results in 2024. His slider gets late drop and performed admirably, looking like an above average breaker, while his straight changeup gives him a third at least average pitch. Everything plays up for Prager because he works effectively in the zone with plus command and high pitching IQ, mixing and matching his stuff effectively to keep hitters off it. The 6'3" lefty also brings some deception in his delivery with a deep arm plunge that helps hide the ball from view, rocking back over into his over the top delivery. Already a high pitchability arm, Prager will return to school with yet another year of polish in his age-22 season and will look to frustrate SEC hitters again. He'll be a few months shy of his 23rd birthday when the 2025 draft rolls around, but he'll still have leverage as a redshirt junior and even if the signing bonus is lower, the Dallas native figures to make plenty of money through NIL.

2. SS Jalin Flores, Texas (my rank: #103)
Undrafted
Not only did Texas pry Jim Schlossnagle away from Texas A&M, they'll also unexpectedly bring back star shortstop Jalin Flores. After bringing back #1 Tanner Witt and #2 Lebarron Johnson from my draft list a year ago, Texas has three of the four top-2 returners over the past two seasons. It must be the barbecue. Flores was a very well-known prospect in the 2022 draft out of the San Antonio high school ranks, clocking in at #82 on my draft board and the #4 high school position player prospect to reach campus. He was overmatched as a freshman in 2023, struggling in a part-time role, but jumped into the lineup every day in 2024 and put up a massive season to regain most of his lost draft stock. At a listed 6'2", 210 pounds, this is a big league body with long limbs and room to add additional strength to his already physical frame. He uses his strength well in the box, effortlessly tapping his average raw power in games and making good contact against all pitch types when he stays within the zone. It's a really natural operation, one which should serve him well as he fills out and improves his approach. The latter, though, is very pressing and likely led to teams not meeting his bonus demands. Flores is an extreme free-swinger at the plate, often looking like he lacks a plan as he chases more than a third of the time and struck out (20.1%) nearly three times as often as he walked (7.6%). I'm personally a believer in his natural hitting ability and I think if the new Schlossnagle regime can get him executing a plan in the box, he has a chance to jump into the top two rounds in 2025. Interestingly, his defensive profile is the opposite in some ways. While he's not flashy and doesn't run well, his excellent body control and strong feel for the dirt has kept him at shortstop thus far, and he has a shot to continue there in pro ball. Even if he's pushed to third base by a more explosive defender, he could be well above average there with a strong arm to boot.

3. SS Anthony Silva, Texas Christian (my rank: #117)
Undrafted
Jalin Flores and Anthony Silva have seen their careers parallel each other to an eerie degree. Born just two weeks apart in July 2003, they attended rival high schools just four miles apart in the San Antonio suburbs and ranked as the #6 and #4 position player prospects to reach campus from the high school Class of 2022, respectively (ranking #89 and #82). While Flores struggled as a freshman at Texas, Silva was excellent for TCU and pushed his way into the fringes of the first round conversation entering 2024. However, as Flores exploded, Silva moved in the opposite direction with a tough sophomore season, and both sophomore-eligible prospects wound up near each other yet again ranking #103 and #117 on my board, respectively. Both priced themselves out of the draft, and they'll both return to their respective schools in the Lone Star State as they rank #2 and #3 on this list. Silva, like I mentioned, was a star for the Horned Frogs in 2023, slashing .330/.416/.471 with just a 12.5% strikeout rate, but dropped to just .268/.369/.384 in 2024 with an 18.6% strikeout rate. Local evaluators noted that he looked stiffer than before. Still, Silva's track record between high school and his big freshman season is plenty enough to remain interested. At his best, he's a very disciplined hitter that makes plenty of contact, adjusting to balls all over the zone to use the whole field effectively with a line drive bat. Listed with almost the exact same measurables as Flores (6'2", 200 pounds), he also has room to grow into more strength but to this point he has not, with fringy exit velocities pointing to 5-10 home runs per season if things don't change. But with high contact rates and potential strength gains, he could easily elevate that projection in 2025. Silva's real selling point, though, is his glove. As a freshman, he glided around the dirt with smooth actions and plenty of arm strength to project as above average at the position, to the point where he really wouldn't have to hit much to provide value at the major league level. He didn't look quite as flashy in 2024, though, and if he continues on that trend he'll be forced to second or third base. Back in Fort Worth, he'll look to return to his freshman self and push back into the top couple of rounds.

4. OF Chris Stanfield, Auburn -> Louisiana State (my rank: #120)
Undrafted
With the way NIL money gets doled out nowadays, Chris Stanfield might have gotten something better than a day two draft selection – an opportunity to transfer to LSU. Stanfield is no stranger to the draft, having ranked #182 on my 2022 board out of high school in Tallahassee, spurning teams at the time so he could attend Auburn. He jumped into the starting lineup as a freshman and has performed admirably over the past two seasons, though he never put up the big numbers he hoped for and will now head west to Baton Rouge. Still, he improved his ranking (on my board at least) by 62 slots up to #120 this year and brings a very interesting skillset to the table. He was just barely eligible this year, turning 21 in July only four days before the cutoff, so he'll still be roughly age-appropriate next year. Still projectable at 6'2", it's a skinny frame that should add more power as he matures and continues to add lean strength. For now, it's a line drive approach from a simple right handed swing that beyond strength gains, could easily add pop if he just looked to turn on the ball more. For now, the exit velocities are fringy and haven't translated to much game power. He's a patient hitter at the plate, making plenty of contact when he swings but sometimes getting overly passive and getting into trouble in deep counts. Another season in college, now under the tutelage of Jay Johnson at LSU, should help him learn to leverage the ball better for more power while controlling his at bats a bit better. Stanfield is also a plus runner who will compete for the center field job in Baton Rouge, and he could continue to stick up the middle in pro ball. That takes some pressure off his bat as well, though he may not need it if he brings everything together. It's a profile that could explode this year.

5. LHP Cade Obermueller, Iowa (my rank: #150)
Drafted – 19th round (pick #585), Texas Rangers
Cade Obermueller joined the names above him as a highly regarded freshman reaching campus, the #7 pitcher to do so from the high school Class of 2022 after ranking #124 on my 2022 board, and he wasn't quite ready to leave his hometown Hawkeyes after two seasons. After spending his freshman season in the bullpen, he shined in the Cape Cod League that summer (1.83 ERA, 35/11 K/BB in 19.2 IP) and jumped into Iowa's ultra talented weekend rotation alongside Brody Brecht (Rockies, CBA round) and Marcus Morgan (Phillies, 9th round). Head coach Rick Heller thought he was going to have to completely rebuild his rotation in 2025, so bringing back Obermueller is a happy surprise and a massive win. Back at school, the Iowa City native will look to prove to teams that he can stick in the rotation long term, rather than move back to the bullpen as many project. The fastball sits in the low 90's and reaches 97 in short stints with sinking and running action, while his sweeping slider dives across the plate and looks to be a plus pitch. Those two pitches right there, from an ultra low lefty sidearm slot no less, will be Obermueller's ticket to the big leagues in some capacity. However, he hasn't thrown his changeup much and his below average command regularly puts him behind in the count, so hitters are less willing to chase his quality stuff. Throw in that he's just 5'11", 160 pounds, and it's a pretty straightforward two pitch sidearm relief profile. Back on campus, Obermueller will have three boxes to check: bulk up, bring the changeup along, and throw more strikes. If he can do maybe two of those three things, someone will take a shot on him as a starter and the move to return to school will pay off. If not, it's a pretty nasty relief profile as is.

6. OF Harrison Didawick, Virginia (my rank: #152)
Undrafted
Harrison Didawick broke into the UVA lineup as a freshman but didn't hit much, then exploded in 2024 as his home run total jumped from 4 to 23 and his OPS jumped from .794 to 1.056. Still, concerns about his swing and miss tendencies kept teams from matching his high bonus demands, and he'll return to Charlottesville for his junior season, where he'll turn 22 shortly before the 2025 draft. Didawick stands out for his power, specifically his game power. Using a short left handed stroke, he has a quick trigger and ambushes pitches over the plate to send them out with great consistency, his 23 home runs last year tying Jake Gelof's (now with the Dodgers) one year old single season UVA home run record. The pure raw power is definitely closer to above average than plus, but the loft in his left handed swing and his natural ability to elevate the ball help him tap all of it. The hit tool, though, is a concern. He struck out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances in 2024 and came up empty on more than 30% of his swings, pointing to below average bat to ball ability. He's reasonably patient and walked in 14% of his plate appearances, a nice number, but pro pitching will attack him in the zone and it's not clear how consistently he'll be able to handle it at the upper levels and in MLB. With fringy to average defensive tools that will keep him in an outfield corner long term, potentially even left field, the pressure will be on his bat and for him to make much more consistent contact. He'll look to do just that at UVA in 2025, where he'll still be 21 through the College World Series (actually set to turn 22 the day after the championship).

7. OF Zack Stewart, Missouri State (my rank: #166)
Undrafted
The first mid-major prospect on this list, Zack Stewart not only spurned the draft but he'll actually return to Missouri State in the MVC, something becoming less and less common nowadays with power programs ravaging mid-major rosters through the transfer portal. Stewart, like Harrison Didawick, is a big time left handed power hitter and nearly matched his UVA counterpart with 22 home runs this year, but he generates that power very differently. While Didawick's power comes from his ability to loft the ball with authority, Stewart's comes from pure ferociousness. He has borderline-elite top-end exit velocities, regularly popping up over 110 MPH with electric bat speed and tremendous torque generated by his 6'2", 220 pound frame. When MVC pitchers leave the ball over the plate, he can pummel it out of any stadium to any field at any point. It's the kind of power that will certainly play with wood bats once he does move on to pro ball. Also like Didawick, swing and miss is a big problem. He also struck out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances in 2024 and ran swing and miss rates around 30%, just like Didawick, but in this case he was doing so against an MVC schedule as opposed to UVA's strong ACC schedule. Given the strength of the pitching he was facing, that's a big concern, and his struggles in the Cape Cod League last summer didn't help (.154/.233/.205, 34.9% K rate in eleven games). Stewart will return to Springfield hoping to cut down that strikeout rate, something he should be able to do without sacrificing power given how naturally he can rip the bat through the zone. The profile reminds me a bit of former Florida State slugger Elijah Cabell, a seventeenth round pick out of Florida State in 2021 who hit .160 over three years in the Cardinals system. Stewart does have the benefit of being left handed, and he's a year younger for his class than Cabell was with a chance to shore things up in his redshirt junior season in 2025. Again like Didawick, Stewart has fringy defensive tools and will wind up in an outfield corner.

8. SS Colby Shelton, Florida (my rank: #172)
Drafted – 20th round (pick #590), Washington Nationals
Colby Shelton, a South Carolina native who attended high school in the Tampa area, started his career at Alabama and earned Freshman All-American honors with a massive 2023 for the Crimson Tide. Coaching turbulence in Tuscaloosa led him to the transfer portal, where he was one of the most sought-after targets in the country and landed in Gainesville. Florida thought they'd only get him for one year, but while he started all 66 games at shortstop and blasted twenty home runs, swing and miss concerns kept teams from meeting his bonus demands and he'll return for his junior season. Though he'll be a true junior, he'll be the age of a college senior and will play the whole 2025 season at age-22. Shelton has average raw power, but he taps all of it in games with natural loft in his left handed swing. Though he's performed for two years against SEC schedules, blasting 45 home runs in 125 games, the approach is raw and hasn't always played up during those weekend SEC series. He's an aggressive hitter that regularly expands the zone, with below average bat to ball ability that led to a very high 26.4% strikeout rate in 2024 (up from 24.6% in 2023). That makes his overall offensive profile much closer to Harrison Didawick than Zack Stewart, though he's six-plus months older than those two and has lower top-end exit velocities. Shelton has played exclusively shortstop at Florida, though his slower feet and solid arm will likely push him to third base in pro ball, where he played at Alabama and at times on the Cape.

9. 1B Jared Jones, Louisiana State (my rank: #197)
Undrafted
Jared Jones was another famous prep to reach campus from the 2022 class, heading to Baton Rouge as a catcher. While the presence of better gloves like Hayden Travinski, Alex Milazzo, and Brady Neal meant that he never put the gear on in game action, he has carved out a name for himself as one of the premier power hitters in college baseball. After crushing fourteen home runs as a freshman in 2023, he doubled that total to 28 in 2024, tied for the seventh highest total in Division I (and third highest among underclassmen). Listed at 6'4", 255 pounds, it's not surprising to hear that Jones has a thunderous right handed bat that can drive balls out to all fields with ease (he did this as a freshman). Very few players had better top-end exit velocities than Zack Stewart, but one of them was Jones who showed 70 grade raw power. Already with 42 home runs under his belt in two seasons at LSU, he'll look to break 60 or even 70+ next year. Now while he continues the power theme, he also continues the swing and miss theme on this list. It might be a 30 grade hit tool as he whiffed on nearly 40% of his swings, an abysmal number, and struck out over a quarter of the time this year (and more than 30% of the time in SEC play and 35% on the Cape). The Atlanta-area native can get overwhelmed with premium stuff and lacks the barrel accuracy to make up for it. Now that he's moved off catcher and exclusively plays first base, where his heavy feet and below average speed fit best, there's much more pressure on his bat to play. Fortunately, he has so much power that he can send the ball out even when he gets fooled, and indeed 70 of his 118 hits for LSU over his career have gone for extra bases. He'll still be 21 on draft day next year and will look to spend 2025 cutting down the swing and miss to a stomache-ble number.

10. SS Jonathan Vastine, Vanderbilt (my rank: #202)
Undrafted
Jonathan Vastine continues the theme of former highly regarded prep prospects on this list, though he's not quite the power hitter of many names above him. He played sparingly as a Vanderbilt freshman in 2022 before taking the reins as the Dores' starting shortstop in 2023, which he has held down with solid results over the past two seasons sandwiched around a strong run through the Cape Cod League in 2023 (.323/.420/.430). Undersized at 5'11", 165 pounds, he whips the bat around pretty explosively for his size and can turn on the ball for average power to his pull side, though it's probably fringy overall. Throughout his career he has employed an approach of controlled aggression at the plate, which helped him hit well against elite pitching on the Cape as well as avoid a dip in his numbers in SEC play vs non-conference play in 2024. However, that approach unraveled at times this year and he surprised some evaluators by swinging and missing at more than a 30% clip, causing his strikeout rate to balloon over 25%. Even with his defensive value, he'll have to bring that number way down given his unremarkable power. Vastine is a strong shortstop with impressive instincts, range, and arm strength, even if he's not the most explosive defender on the dirt. That will enable him to be above average at second base, shortstop, or third base in pro ball, taking pressure off his bat as he eventually works his way up as a utility infielder. The underlying metrics on Vastine were not good in 2024 and teams noticed that, so back in Nashville he'll look to tighten things up and find a way to make more contact with a more sustainable approach at the plate. I still like the way the Florida native moves on both sides of the ball and he could be a nice senior sign next year if he makes the necessary adjustments.

Bonus: RHP Jaxon Jelkin, Houston -> ? (my rank: #134)
Drafted – 9th round (pick #263), New York Mets
Jaxon Jelkin went unsigned and would technically rank #5 on this list. There's not much information out there about his current situation, but I have a good general idea of the basics and I'll do my best to lay them out. Jelkin has bounced around a lot, beginning his career as a seldom-used reliever at Nebraska in 2022 but getting dismissed from the team two months into the season. He transferred to South Mountain JC in Phoenix for 2023 where the Dodgers drafted him in the fourteenth round, then headed to Houston in 2024. He looked sharp in seven starts for the Cougars, including a thirteen strikeout performance against BYU in March, but went down with Tommy John surgery and won't get back on the mound until mid-2025 at the earliest. The Mets drafted him in the ninth round regardless, but disputes over his medicals led to the team rescinding its offer. It's not clear what his next steps will be – he's not on Houston's 2025 roster, nor any other school's, and indications seem to be that he intends to sign as a free agent which hasn't happened yet. While everything else is a question mark, nobody doubts the arm talent. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 at peak, though it shows more running than riding life. He throws two breaking balls, led by an above average slider with sweep in addition to a solid two-plane curveball that he has leaned more and more on, and together he throws the breaking balls more than his fastball. His changeup shows excellent fade and got strong results for him in 2024, projecting as a potential above average pitch. The 6'5" righty is extremely projectable and brings great athleticism on the mound, with both his command and stuff trending in the right direction throughout his college career. If he can get healthy and build up his durability, he has legitimate MLB starting pitcher upside, and if he can find more movement on his fastball, he could be a true impact starter with four above average pitches. But questions about his makeup and medical situation may be what's keeping teams away.

Others

#213 OF Kendall Diggs, Arkansas
#215 1B Hunter Hines, Mississippi State

2020 Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

1-7: SS Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State
CBA-31: RHP Carmen Mlodzinski, South Carolina
2-44: RHP Jared Jones, La Mirada HS (CA)
3-79: RHP Nick Garcia, Chapman
4-108: RHP Jack Hartman, Appalachian State
5-138: RHP Logan Hofmann, Northwestern State

I really like this draft class the Pirates pulled together. They started off with one of my favorite players in the class, Nick Gonzales, which really makes the draft class right there. From there, they picked up five consecutive right handed pitchers, starting with three famous names that each bring something a little different. Carmen Mlodzinski is more of a high floor, high-probability big league starter, while Jared Jones as a ton of upside as a high school power arm and Nick Garcia recently transitioned to pitching and was trending up really quickly. The last two picks, Jack Hartman and Logan Hofmann, were money savers, with Hartman bringing a live arm with great stuff and Hofmann looking more like a safe bet type of guy. Aside from right handed pitching, Cape Cod League success was a big theme here, as Gonzales won the league's MVP, Mlodzinski looked equally fantastic, and Garcia and Hofmann both put themselves on the map there before elevating their stock further this spring.
Full index of team reviews here.

1-7: SS Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State (my rank: 4)
Man, there is so much to love about Nick Gonzales, and getting him here at #7 is a steal. First, we'll start with his unreal stats, which include a .435/.549/.838 slash line, 28 home runs, and a 40/66 strikeout to walk ratio in 71 games over the past two seasons. Even though he played at altitude against a relatively weaker schedule, those are still unfathomably eye-popping numbers, and he went out and won the Cape Cod League MVP with a .349/.445/.599 line and eight home runs against elite competition to prove his bat is for real (I wrote about the importance of that summer performance in February here). He's an absolute joy to watch play, employing an extremely professional approach that he executes every time. Gonzales has a simple, but explosive, right handed swing that produces above average power despite his listed 5'10" height. He never sells out for home runs, though, instead looking to make hard, line drive contact from gap to gap, with his elite barrel control translating naturally into home runs. That gives him the upside of a 20-25 home runs hitter with high on-base percentages, a true all star projection if things work out. Defensively, he was drafted as a shortstop but probably fits better at second base, where he should be solid average. On top of everything, he's known to have a great work ethic. Gonzales grew up just outside of Tucson, Arizona, and despite a couple of Division I offers, he decided to walk on at New Mexico State, where he outworked everyone around him and turned himself into the best hitter the school had ever seen. He signed at slot value for $5.43 million and I'm really excited to see where this pick goes. Pre-draft profile here.

CBA-31: RHP Carmen Mlodzinski, South Carolina (my rank: 25)
Another nice pickup for the Pirates, especially since they got him to sign under slot. Growing up on Hilton Head Island, Carmen Mlodzinski (pronounced "muhjinski") was a well-known prep prospect with top five rounds buzz, but instead ended up heading to USC for college. He had an up and down freshman season in 2018, which is completely natural for a freshman in the SEC, then broke his foot in 2019 and never really got to show what he was capable of that year. Returning in the Cape Cod League, he elevated his stock perhaps more than any other pitcher in the league with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings. Mlodzinski entered the spring with the chance to go as high as the top half of the first round, but his stuff looked slightly flatter and after putting up a 2.84 ERA and a 22/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings, he fell to the Pirates at pick #31. Over the summer, Mlodzinski sported a low to mid 90's fastball that kicked up as high as 99 at one point, in addition to a plus slider and an above average cutter and changeup. However, this spring, the velocity was still mostly there but his offspeed pitches looked more ordinary. His command, after being consistently above average on the Cape, was a bit more inconsistent. Scouts wanted to see him run through the SEC to determine whether it was just a slow start, or if the summer was really an anomaly. Still, even if the down spring is really the truth, there's a lot to like. Mlodzinski gets a lot of weak contact from his sinking fastball, and even this spring, he was able to touch 97. His ability to manipulate his slider between a breaking ball with more depth and a cutter with more velocity was still there, and he hits his spots pretty well. That gives him a nice floor as a back-end starter, but of course, the Pirates would like to see the summer version of Mlodzinski emerge once more. If that happens, the 6'2" right hander would look more like a #2 starter than a #5, and could make this a great pick. Overall, I see him as something of a safe bet #3/#4 guy. His $2.05 million signing bonus was about $260,000 below slot, which really adds to the value of this pick. Pre-draft profile here.

2-44: RHP Jared Jones, La Mirada HS, CA (my rank: 45)
Jared Jones is a really interesting arm, and the Pirates have a chance to pull some really big upside out of their second round pick. The Southern California native has been famous on the showcase circuit for a long time, having shown really loud stuff early in his high school career, but the lack of progress with his command allowed other names to pass him. He was moving back up boards again with a strong start to the 2020 season, pushing himself safely into the top 50 picks. A 6'1" right hander, he sits in the mid 90's with his power fastball and can crank it up a little higher at times, a product of tremendous arm strength despite a small-ish frame, at least small-ish by starting pitcher standards. Beyond the big fastball, he has a great slider that can flash true plus at times, a solid changeup, and a new curveball that he added during the pandemic. With big velocity and four potential above average pitches, there is a ton to like here. His command has been pretty shaky throughout his career, but it was creeping closer to average this spring, which likely is what made the Pirates feel comfortable enough to pull the trigger on a big over slot deal in the top 50. While his upside is really exciting, the idea of a skinny 6'1" kid throwing in the mid 90's makes me a little nervous about future arm surgeries, but he's proven durable up to this point. It cost the Pirates $2.2 million to buy him out of a Texas commitment, which was about $510,000 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

3-79: RHP Nick Garcia, Chapman (my rank: 61)
For their next pick, the Pirates went back to Southern California to grab Nick Garcia out of Division III Chapman University. A product of Junipero Serra High School in the San Francisco area, the same school that gave us Tom Brady, Garcia was recruited as an infielder and is actually pretty new to pitching. Chapman liked his arm strength and moved him to the mound as a sophomore, and the results have been electric – over two seasons, admittedly against weak competition, he is 13-1 with a 1.08 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 118/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings for the Panthers. He runs his fastball into the mid 90's and has reached as high as 98, adding an above average slider and cutter as well that he can work between. There isn't much of a changeup to this point, but that's nitpicking. With three above average pitches, solid average command, and a durable, 6'4" frame, Garcia is already brimming with starter's traits very early into his pitching career. He has an easy, repeatable delivery, so at this point, the Pirates just need to keep working with him to further sharpen that slider/cutter combination, refine his changeup, and keep up the progress with his command. With few miles on his arm, he theoretically brings less injury risk as well. Garcia is the kind of guy who might have been a much higher pick had he simply attended a Division I program, but I really like the pick here for the Pirates and I think he's well worth the $1.2 million signing bonus, which was about $419,600 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

4-108: RHP Jack Hartman, Appalachian State (unranked)
Here's another converted position player. A native of the Atlanta area, Hartman began his career hitting at Tallahassee Community College but transferred to the College of Central Florida (different than UCF) to begin pitching. After that, he bounced to Appalachian State, where he has pitched in relief for the Mountaineers. In two seasons, he has a 4.28 ERA and a 48/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings, showing swing and miss stuff but a lot of inconsistency. At his best, he can run his fastball up to 97 and miss bats with a wipeout slider, but oftentimes, he can lose feel for that slider as well as the strike zone. The 6'3" righty is relatively young for a senior, only turning 22 the day after I published this piece, but the Pirates are going to need to work with him on his day to day consistency if he wants to stick. That's closer stuff at times, but he won't be much more than a middle reliever if he doesn't improve in that regard. Starting is probably unlikely here. He signed for $60,000, which was $478,200 below slot value.

5-138: RHP Logan Hofmann, Northwestern State (unranked)
This one is definitely an interesting arm. Logan Hofmann grew up in the tiny, remote town of Muenster, Saskatchewan (population 422), about 70 miles east of Saskatoon, then headed south to Colby Community College in rural western Kansas for school. Keeping it rural and keeping his southward path, Hofmann landed at Northwestern State in Natchitoches, Louisiana this year as a junior, and the results were spectacular; over four starts against so-so competition, he tossed 28 shutout innings and struck out 38 while walking just five batters (albeit with three unearned runs). Not the biggest guy in the world at 5'10", he's a polished strike thrower that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball to get swings and misses. The stuff isn't crazy loud, but it worked for him at NSU and it worked on the Cape, where he struck out 27 and walked eight over 20.1 innings of work. He's also very young for a college junior and doesn't turn 21 until November, but regardless, he probably fits better in the bullpen long term, where hopefully the stuff will tick up a little bit. He signed for $125,000, which was $277,000 below slot value.

Undrafted: RHP Parker Brahms, Sacramento State (unranked)
Brahms was a senior sign out of Sacramento State, where he had a productive four year career, going 18-14 with a 3.15 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 295/80 strikeout to walk ratio over 291.1 innings, making him the Hornets' all time strikeout leader. He was off to a really hot start in 2020, putting up a 1.14 ERA and a 32 strikeouts in 23.2 innings, and perhaps even more impressively, he didn't walk a single batter. His fastball sits in the upper 80's but has peaked at 92 at times, not overwhelming velocity but enough to get the job done. He adds a good curveball that has been his strikeout pitch, as well as a changeup, and a slight pause in his delivery can disrupt hitters' timing. It's probably a relief profile overall, where his fastball could spend more time above 90 than below, and his plus command could help him work between that fastball and curveball. He was drafted by the Dodgers in the 27th round last year but did not sign.

2020 Draft Profile: Jared Jones

RHP Jared Jones, La Mirada HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here

DoB: 8/6/2001.  Commitment: Texas

Jones has had a bit of an up and down, and certainly well-publicized, ride in terms of prospect stock. He was one of the first stars to emerge from the 2020 high school class, looking like one of the best arms in the class as early as his sophomore year. It took him some time to figure out his control and command, and as other players began to emerge, his stock faded just a little bit from its sky-high starting point. Jones then entered the 2020 season looking more like a second round pick, but improved results in the aforementioned control and command part of his game bumped him back into the fringes of the first round conversation.

Jones has a lot of starter traits and a couple of reliever warnings. He's a skinny 6'1" right hander with a big fastball that can sit in the mid 90's, and it has some nice arm side run as well. His go-to breaking ball has been an above average to plus slider, one with mid 80's velocity at times and really nice, two-plane tilt. He adds a changeup that's coming along, and lastly, he added a curveball during the pandemic that shows some potential. With his arm strength and ability to maintain his stuff into the later innings, that's a clear starter's arsenal. Historically, his command has been below average, but he was showing signs of real improvement on that front in the shortened 2020 season and looks to be closer to average now.

On the flip side, there are a couple of reliever warnings. The command is not as big of a red flag anymore, but it still needs continued development, as is the case for most high school arms. He's shown no durability questions to this point, but he's not the biggest guy in the world and he throws with full effort. While that alone doesn't doom a pitcher to relief, it does mean he'll have to continue to prove that he can hold up under a full, 150-200 inning season. With an August birthday, he's also relatively old for the class, which has become a factor for some teams.

I think when you look at the pros versus the cons in Jones' profile, the former far outweighs the latter. This is a big armed kid with a big league starter's arsenal that's trending back in the right direction, giving him the upside of a true impact starter at the major league level. He comes with significant relief/bust risk, as do most high school pitchers, but it's some of the better upside you'll find in this range of the draft. He now figures to go somewhere in the early second round, though he has a good shot at sneaking into the comp round if he's signable away from a Texas commitment. If Jones goes to Texas and shoves like he's capable of, he'll be a no-doubt first round pick in 2023.

Summer action at Wrigley Field
Summer action at Chase Field