Now that I have finally completed all thirty team by team draft reviews, it's time to look at the guys who didn't sign. We'll start with the college players, and only five from my whole draft list went unsigned, one less than last year. All five are pitchers, and they all have different reasons for returning. Two are coming off major injuries, two had inconsistent seasons, and most are on the younger side for the class giving them better prospects if they return. Interestingly, Texas has the top two names on this list. Last year, of the six college players on my draft list to go unsigned, four were drafted in the top one hundred picks this year (two by the Mets) led by Ty Floyd at pick #38 to the Reds, one fell to the eleventh round, and one was not eligible. That's a very nice track record and puts the five names below in a good spot.
Note, the ranking in parentheses denotes their ranking on my 2023 draft board.
1. (#93) RHP Tanner Witt, Texas.
Tanner Witt is a tough fish to reel in. He was the seventh best high school pitcher to reach campus after the pandemic after ranking #87 on my 2020 draft list, and now he's the highest ranking college player to return to school since #10 Kumar Rocker after the 2021 season. Up on reaching campus, he immediately became a key piece out of the Texas bullpen in 2021, then looked sharp in his first two starts of 2022 to push himself into very early discussions for the 2023 first round. Unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season, then returned in May of 2023. Before the injury, he had been 7-0 with a 2.91 ERA and an 87/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings, but after he returned this spring, he put up a 10.97 ERA and an 8/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings. Heading to the Cape Cod League to try to rebuild his stock before the draft, he continued to struggle with an 11.93 ERA and an 11/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.1 innings. For that reason, he turned down the Orioles in the eighteenth round and will return to Austin for his senior season. When healthy, Witt is a pretty complete starting pitching prospect. His fastball sits in the low 90's and has scraped as high as 97 in the past, coming in with nice riding life from a high release point. He has great feel for a big 12-6 curveball with great depth, while he also shows a solid slider and an above average changeup. The big 6'6" righty repeats his delivery very well and has long had above average control, exuding polish as an underclassman. The stuff was flatter in 2023 as he looked rusty coming back from surgery, and because of that he got hit hard. Witt's delivery already lacks deception with a unique double tap of the ball out of and back into the glove, giving hitters an extra look, and its lack of moving parts make it easy to track the ball even if it helps his command. Fortunately, the Houston native was very young for the 2023 class and will pitch his entire senior season at 21 years old, putting him just a little on the older side for the 2024 draft class but still more or less age appropriate. The son of former first baseman Kevin Witt, who had a nice year with the Tigers in 2003, Tanner has tremendous feel for pitching and a great head on his shoulders, fully understanding what he needs to do to become a better pitcher. Hopefully, he'll shake off the rust and push his way back into the top couple of rounds for the 2024 draft while leading the Longhorns to another competitive season in the Big 12 alongside Lebarron Johnson.
2. (#106) RHP Lebarron Johnson, Texas.
Tanner Witt isn't the only star pitcher heading back to Austin. While Witt is the more famous name due to his long history as a draft prospect, Lebarron Johnson may actually have more upside in the long run. He didn't pitch as a freshman in 2021, worked out of the bullpen in 2022, then was primarily a starter in 2023 as he posted a 2.91 ERA and a 98/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.2 innings. I'm definitely one of the high guys on Johnson. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 98 with extreme downhill plane that gives him a unique look. His power slider gets into the low 90's and looks like a plus pitch, while his nasty splitter gives him another weapon. It's really, really loud stuff that you don't come by every day. To this point, the Jacksonville native has been inconsistent with his command, especially with his offspeed stuff, but he's trending in the right direction there. Going back to Texas will give him an opportunity to add a little more polish, and it would be nice to see him incorporate something softer into his arsenal as well so he can change speeds more effectively. Like Witt, he was on the younger end for the class and will only turn 22 during the 2024 College World Series, so he won't be crazy old for the 2024 class. Back at school for his redshirt junior season, he'll look to prove his ability to start long term and with Witt gives the Longhorns one of the better, more experienced one-two punches in the country.
3. (#185) RHP Terry Busse, Georgia Tech.
Terry Busse began his career at powerhouse John A. Logan JC in Illinois, then transferred to Georgia Tech as a junior. "Scary Terry" was untouchable to start the 2023 season, kicking off with 12 shutout innings on just five hits, one walk, and 23 strikeouts against such opponents as Georgia, Notre Dame, and Auburn. Unfortunately that was the high water mark for his draft stock, as he faded over the course of the season and had a 7.12 ERA the rest of the way, finishing with a 5.10 ERA and a 58/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings overall. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with run and sink, playing up further from a deceptive slot. The slider looks like a plus pitch at its best with late diving action, and when he's on, those two pitches are untouchable. Early in the season, he was locating both pitches to both sides of the plate and keeping hitters well off balance, but that unraveled later on as the command slipped. He's 65 pounds lighter and doesn't throw quite as hard, but the profile overall reminds me of Brusdar Graterol especially with the mechanics. Busse has a disjointed-looking delivery in which he picks up and drops his front leg quickly before pausing then planting and whipping his arm around. It's not pretty, but it effectively transfers energy from his lower half to his upper half. With two pitches, a funky delivery, and the way he faded down the stretch, it's a pure relief profile. He'll go back to Atlanta to prove he can hold his peak stuff over longer periods of time. Unlike Witt and Johnson above him on this list and Little below him, he's already on the older side and will pitch the entire 2024 season at 22 years old.
4. (#197) RHP Christian Little, Louisiana State.
As if LSU needs any more help, they're getting back one of the best unsigned college pitchers in the country. Christian Little's career has been a roller coaster ride, to say the least, so by returning to Baton Rouge he'll hope to right the ship and get his payday. One of the top high school pitchers in the entire country in 2021 earning top ten (!) buzz, he graduated early from Christian Brothers College High School in St. Louis to enroll at Vanderbilt as a 17 year old. Serving as the Commodore midweek starter in 2021, he worked mostly out of the bullpen in 2022 and decided to transfer to LSU in search of his breakout. The change of scenery unfortunately had the opposite effect and he posted a 7.79 ERA and a 42/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings, making for the worst season of his young career. However, he was one of the youngest players in the entire 2023 college class, not turning 20 until just before the draft at nearly two years younger than Terry Busse, who himself was age appropriate. So even though he's going back to school for his senior year, he'll still be very young for the 2024 class and will only turn 21 right around draft day. Little has nasty stuff at his best. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 98 with some ride, and he can take a little off to turn it into an upper 80's cutter. He has a sharp slider that looks above average at best, though it can blend into his fringier curveball at times. He also shows a decent changeup. The command was solid during his prep career, but he has never taken a step forward in that regard and now grades below average, causing all of his stuff to play down as he works from behind in the count. Standing 6'4", 225 pounds, he's very physical but his delivery can get rigid, which also works against his command, and he'll have to watch his conditioning going forward. Returning to LSU will give the young arm a chance to iron out the kinks in his delivery and get more consistent with his stuff, in which case he could shoot back up boards. The age is a huge boon for him in possibly being able to make that happen.
5. (#208) RHP Joseph Gonzalez, Auburn.
Joseph Gonzalez put up a great sophomore season in 2022, posting a 3.22 ERA and a 54/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings, positioning himself as a potential top one hundred pick in 2023 entering the season. He showed well in his first start of 2023 against Indiana, tossing five shutout innings while allowing just three baserunners and picking up one strikeout, but he hurt his shoulder and hasn't seen the mound since. Shoulders injuries are about the most unpredictable injury a pitcher can get, so teams were naturally scared off by the fact that he hadn't pitched and weren't willing to roll the dice with the reasonably large signing bonus his talent would have earned him. So he'll head back to the Plains and look to prove his health in 2024. When healthy, Gonzalez sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out around 93-94 with running and sinking action. He has nice feel for both his low 80's slider and his above average changeup, though none stands out as a true strikeout pitch. Instead, the Puerto Rico native keeps hitters off balance by changing speeds and executing all three pitches to both sides of the plate with plus command, making him more of an old school pitching prospect in that regard. So long as he's healthy, he's a high floor type that looks like a high probability #4 or #5 starter in the long run, especially if he can add a tick of power to his stuff. However, the injury takes away that high floor, so it's hard to sell scouts on a low ceiling/low floor type. Showing that he's healthy and pounding the strike zone again in 2024 will get him back to the low ceiling/high floor type that typically does well early in day two.
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