Monday, September 4, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Miami Marlins

Full list of draftees

As usual, the Marlins went heavy on the pitching in this class, taking thirteen pitchers in their first seventeen picks. You could argue they landed to land the top two high school pitchers in the entire class with their first two picks, and the massive over slot bonus they gave Thomas White meant that they had to spend the rest of the draft playing catchup with their bonus pool. The profiles of those they drafted were pretty diverse, even among pitchers between some high slot/high ride guys and other lower slot/run/sink arms. Overall, I think it's a decent class, not my favorite but if you can land the two best high school pitchers in the country, it's hard to argue. I will say, I find it impressive that they managed to make 21 picks and not come away with a single Floridian given how much talent the Sunshine State pumps into the pro pipeline.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-10: RHP Noble Meyer, Jesuit HS [OR] {video}
Slot value: $5.48 million. Signing bonus: $4.5 million ($975,300 below slot value).
My rank: #11. MLB Pipeline: #8. Baseball America: #7. Prospects Live: #11.
The Marlins started off their draft with a bang, grabbing the consensus best high school pitcher in the class and diverting him away from an Oregon commitment for nearly a million dollars below slot to boot (close to the value of the #15 pick). Meyer was already considered the top prep pitching prospect in the class coming into the season, and he only solidified that with an exceptional spring. His fastball comfortably sits in the low to mid 90's but reached triple digits this spring, coming in with plenty of running action. His hard, sweeping slider looks like a plus pitch more often than not, and his changeup looks like it should become an above average pitch in time with more consistency. Coming in from a low three quarters slot, he provides a tougher look for hitters and repeats his delivery very well, with above average command not often seen from preps touching triple digits. The 6'5" righty is also extremely projectable and could be sitting comfortably in the mid 90's sooner rather than later, with true ace upside. It's hard to poke holes in Meyer's profile aside from the fact that he's a high school righthanded pitcher, an inherently risky profile. So far, he has a 4.09 ERA and a 15/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 innings between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter.

CBA-35: LHP Thomas White, Philips HS [MA] {video}
Slot value: $2.42 million. Signing bonus: $4.1 million ($1.68 million above slot value).
My rank: #29. MLB Pipeline: #24. Baseball America: #19. Prospects Live: #26.
The Marlins used their savings on Noble Meyer, then about $700,000 more, to sign Thomas White away from a Vanderbilt commitment with money that fit between the 17th and 18th pick slot values. Many evaluators would tell you the Marlins got the two best high school pitchers in the country, and I'd have to agree with White (#29) ranking just ahead of Charlee Soto (#30) on my board. There's a lot for him to work on, but even more to like already. He sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with his fastball, up a tick from last summer, with some nice life. His curveball has begun to step forward with slurvy break, while he's added a slider recently as well. At this point, his best offspeed pitch is an above average changeup that's extremely advanced for a high school pitcher, and together it's already a big league arsenal. White is extremely projectable with a smooth, easy delivery, so it's easy to envision even more velocity coming in the future. At this point, he's still growing into his 6'5" frame and can rush his release point at times, but the command will come. The Massachusetts native certainly has a lot going with him, and if the Marlins are patient, he has the ingredients to become a potential co-ace with Meyer. He'll just need to clean up the command a little bit and get more consistent with his secondaries, but I see no reason he won't. It's been rocky in the early going, as he's allowed seven runs (three earned) over 2.1 innings between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter, striking out five and walking four along the way.

2-47: OF Kemp Alderman, Mississippi {video}
Slot value: $1.83 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($425,300 below slot value).
My rank: #61. MLB Pipeline: #55. Baseball America: #102. Prospects Live: #95.
The Marlins saved some more money here in the second round, grabbing Kemp Alderman out of Ole Miss. He has gotten better and better during his time in Oxford, going from barely used freshman in 2021 to solid hitter in 2022 to one of the best hitters in the SEC in 2023, where he slashed .376/.440/.709 with 19 home runs and a 41/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. It's one of the most extreme profiles in this draft class. Alderman is country strong, to put it lightly, with elite raw power bordering on 80 grade. His exit velocities are off the charts, in fact holding the highest 90th percentile exit velocity on my draft board (and likely in college baseball, though I don't have access to all the data) and a max exit velocity up around 118. He can demolish a baseball to the pull side, but the power plays plenty well to the opposite field and he doesn't need to square it up to send it out. On the flip side, the hit tool needs a lot of work. He's an extremely aggressive hitter that chases almost a third of the time, whiffing at a high rate that makes his pro outlook a little bit questionable. As the best hitter in Ole Miss' somewhat disappointing lineup last year, he didn't see a lot in the zone and still walked over 10% of the time, but he'll see a lot more pitches in the shadow zone in pro ball and he'll have to adjust. As I mentioned before, though, he doesn't need to get all of it to get it out, so he'll have the luxury of doing damage on his mishits, just so long as he makes some contact. The rural Mississippi native is a fringy runner who won't provide a ton of value on defense, but his plus arm should partially make up for that in right field. He pitched a bit for the Rebels as well and touched 94 on the mound. Together, Alderman has the look of a power hitting corner outfielder who may be forced to a platoon role if he continues to chase at his current rate. He's still getting acclimated to pro pitching with a .196/.288/.299 slash line, one home run, and a 33/6 strikeout to walk ratio through 29 games at Low A Jupiter.

3-78: 1B Brock Vradenburg, Michigan State {video}
Slot value: $916,000. Signing bonus: $916,000.
My rank: #121. MLB Pipeline: #117. Baseball America: #178. Prospects Live: #146.
Like Kemp Alderman, Brock Vradenburg has gotten better and better throughout his time at Michigan State. He was a mediocre role player in 2021, then turned into a solid if unspectacular every day player in 2022 even if he wasn't really considered a pro prospect. However, he broke out in a big way in 2023 and slashed .400/.492/.721 with 13 home runs and a 34/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games, brute forcing his way into the top one hundred picks. Vradenburg is a towering presence in the box at 6'7", using a combination of plus barrel control, a patient approach, and a line drive swing to make a ton of hard contact to all fields. That stands in stark contrast to most towering hitters, whose long arms often inhibit their ability to make contact against quality stuff in the zone. Meanwhile, even though he doesn't go up to the plate looking to lift the ball, Vradenburg can really put a charge into it with sneaky high exit velocities that could translate to above average power if he chose to look for it. It will be interesting to see how the Marlins choose to proceed there, either letting him remain a hit over power bat or having him sacrifice some contact to put more balls over the fence. An average runner, his lanky frame and fringy athleticism inhibit him from playing much other than first base, and he's just adequate there as it is. With a ton of pressure on his bat and zero help from his glove, the Southern California native will need to continue to hit for impact all the way up the ladder if he wants to play every day. He has what it takes to make contact and get on base, and we'll just need to unlock a little more power along the way. His bat hasn't quite gotten going yet, as he's slashing .204/.333/.258 with one home run and a 32/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at Low A Jupiter.

4-110: LHP Emmett Olson, Nebraska {video}
Slot value: $609,600. Signing bonus: $460,000 ($149,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #228. Baseball America: #283. Prospects Live: #307.
Emmett Olson isn't the most exciting prospect in this class, but he should give the Marlins an interesting starting pitching prospect to work with. Olson had a great sophomore season (2.86 ERA, 65/16 K/BB) and started off hot in 2023, but couldn't maintain that and finished the season with a 4.50 ERA and an 80/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings. He sits around 90 with his fastball, usually a tick above, and touches 94 at peak with some riding action from an overhand slot. He works in a full arsenal of secondaries, though none are true bat missers. His slider is probably his best pitch with some late diving action, while his curveball is bigger and used to steal strikes when he lands it, and his changeup is mostly a change of pace for right handed hitters. Olson works all of it with solid command that helps him get into good counts and executive his game plan, helping everything play up a touch. The Chicago-area native projects as a #5 starter or long reliever, with a chance for more if one of his secondary pitches can take a step forward and he perhaps adds a tick of velocity. In his first outing in the Florida Complex League, he allowed one run over 1.2 innings with two strikeouts to one walk.

5-146: RHP Andrew Lindsey, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $429,400. Signing bonus: $340,000 ($89,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #172. Baseball America: #394. Prospects Live: #96.
This is one of the more interesting profiles in the Marlins' class. Andrew Lindsey started his college career at Walters State JC, transferred to Charlotte, then stepped away from the game in 2022 despite a successful run with the 49ers in 2021. After a year off, he and fellow former Walters State Senator Zach Joyce both came back from their hiatuses to join the Tennessee Volunteers, with Joyce also having stepped away from the game, in his case for mental health reasons. Joyce was drafted by the Angels in the fourteenth round this year, while Lindsey earned his way into the fifth round here. He actually pushed his way ahead of eventual Rockies first round pick Chase Dollander to become the Tennessee ace, putting up a 2.90 ERA and a 73/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 71.1 innings as a swingman. Like many Tennessee pitchers, Lindsey has seen a velocity bump and now sits in the mid 90's, touching 98 with heavy sink and run from a lower slot. His short slider has cutter-like action in the upper 80's and can pop across that 90 threshold, giving him a true bat missing pitch, while his curveball and changeup are used a bit less often. He pounds the strike zone with everything and repeats his low three quarters delivery consistently. The 6'3" righty is also a great athlete with plenty of present physicality, maintaining his stuff deep into games and looking like a starting pitcher long term. Really, the only major drawback in his profile is his age, as he'll turn 24 in November and is therefore already older than dozens of major leaguers including Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr., and Michael Harris. Still, Lindsey has the potential to move quickly even as a starting pitcher. He didn't appear on my rankings, but he was in that next batch of players I would have loved to get to before draft day (there always has to be a batch). In two Florida Complex League starts, he allowed four runs over 4.1 innings while striking out two and walking one.

6-173: OF Jake DeLeo, Georgia Tech {video}
Slot value: $333,900. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($33,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #304. Prospects Live: #269.
Jake DeLeo is another older prospect, though still a year and a half younger than Andrew Lindsey, having turned 22 in May. He started the season on a fifteen game hitting streak and finished on a fourteen game hitting streak, totaling a .365/.426/.651 slash line, 14 home runs, and a 48/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. DeLeo has a quick right handed bat capable of gashing hard line drives to all fields, and he can turn on the ball too for average power. It's a simple swing that helps him make plenty of contact in the zone, though his approach is raw and does have a tendency to chase. That, plus an overall streaky bat, leads to a bit of a questionable hit tool, though he did improve significantly from his first season in the Cape Cod League (.234/.271/.288, 30/6 K/BB) to his second (.248/.326/.405, 44/13 K/BB). If he can clean the approach up a little bit, he probably profiles as a gap to gap hitter that can hit plenty of doubles and triples while ambushing you for 10-15 home runs per season. The Connecticut native is also an above average runner with a strong arm that should be able to play center field in the bigs at least in a reserve role, making this a pretty clear fourth outfield profile. If he can find a way to continue tapping his power consistently in games against more advanced pitching, it could be more. He's outhitting the guys drafted above him in this Marlins class so far, slashing .246/.314/.410 with four home runs, twelve stolen bases, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games for Low A Jupiter.

7-203: LHP Justin Storm, Southern Miss {video}
Slot value: $261,000. Signing bonus: $241,000 ($20,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #185. Baseball America: #294. Prospects Live: #261.
Justin Storm never started a game in his three years at Southern Miss, but gives the Marlins a solid relief prospect. He had his best year yet in 2023, posting a 2.36 ERA and a 72/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings, serving as the Southern Miss closer. Storm sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 95, with plenty of carrying action from a high slot similar to Emmett Olson. He shows great feel for his slider, which shows late, deep break, and helps him miss a ton of bats. Storm is a huge guy at 6'7", 230 pounds, and generates his velocity pretty easily so he can spot pitches well around the zone, better than most relievers. For that reason, you could think about throwing him out there as a starter, though he'll need to develop a changeup and given that he's in the low 90's already, you don't want him losing any more velocity. With two big league pitches and solid command, he could move pretty quickly if he remains in the bullpen. In 4.1 innings in the Florida Complex League, he allowed three runs and struck out four but walked six.

15-443: RHP Nigel Belgrave, Maryland {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #250. Baseball America: #313. Prospects Live: #178.
Nigel Belgrave gives the Marlins a high octane pure reliever. While Justin Storm has a chance to make the jump to the rotation if the Marlins want to go that route, Belgrave is a pure reliever. He didn't pitch as a true freshman then walked 22 batters in 18 innings as a redshirt freshman in 2022, then took a step forward in the Cape Cod League where he put up a 3.52 ERA and an 11/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings. Coming back to Maryland for his redshirt sophomore season this past spring, he put up a 6.42 ERA and a 43/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings, leaving a pretty clear picture for scouts. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 97 with sink and run, acting as a ground ball machine that can be difficult to lift with any kind of authority. His slider is equally deadly, with power and late sweep that give him a true bat misser. It's just those two for now, though Belgrave has worked in a cutter lately and that could split the difference nicely. The command has improved but remains comfortably below average, causing him to get hit hard when he falls behind in the count. The 6'4" righty has a pretty free and easy delivery, but his combination of a long trunk rotation and a very loose arm lead to difficulty repeating the whole thing. The Marlins may need to streamline and clean things up a bit in order to get him to passable command, so he can effectively mix that fastball/slider and keep hitters guessing. So far, he has allowed four runs in six innings while striking out seven and walking nine between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter.

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