Friday, September 15, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Oakland Athletics

Full list of draftees

To be honest, given the A's draft capital versus what they brought in, this is one of my least favorite draft classes of the season. I personally think the A's didn't bring in nearly as much upside as they could have while picking near the beginning of each round and holding an extra CBA pick to boot, but of course, time will tell. The team was also put in a tough position when despite having the second worst record in baseball, they fell victim to the draft lottery and slid back to the sixth pick in a draft class that wound up having a clear top five prospects. Overall, it turned into a pitching heavy class after the A's spent their first three picks on position players, with the bulk of their overslot money going to two high school pitchers in rounds three and four.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-6: SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon {video}
Slot value: $6.63 million. Signing bonus: $5.5 million ($1.13 million below slot value).
My rank: #28. MLB Pipeline: #10. Baseball America: #9. Prospects Live: #13.
The A's started off their draft by getting Jacob Wilson at a massive discount, paying him closer to the slot value for the #10 pick here at #6 and saving over a million dollars in the process. Wilson has an extreme profile, to say the least. The son of former Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson, Jacob has gotten better and better each year at Grand Canyon and slashed .411/.461/.635 with six home runs and a 5/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games in 2023. His profile is carried by the best pure bat to ball skills in the entire class, perhaps the best since Nick Madrigal back in 2018. The man has struck out just twelve times over the past two seasons combined, a span of 108 games, with seven in 2022 and five in 2023. Wilson is actually a pretty aggressive hitter that chases more than most other hitters, but it doesn't matter because his 80 grade pure bat to ball skills help him make absurdly consistent contact both inside and outside the zone. He simply does not swing and miss, period. Because he never whiffs and also likes to chase outside the zone, he also doesn't walk much, and 88% of his plate appearances ended with a ball in play (including home runs). For comparison, just 49% of current Athletic Ryan Noda's plate appearances have ended as such this year. Wilson has a jittery setup at the plate, wagging back and forth and constantly in motion, then slashes at the ball with a quick, precisely accurate right handed swing. He's built like a string bean at 6'3", 190 pounds, and because of his hit over power approach, there's not a ton of impact in the bat yet. His exit velocities are well below average and at this point he projects for no more than a dozen or so home runs per season at best, so he'll need to fill out his frame considerably if he wants to change that. Right now, he projects as a high average type that provides most of his value through just that, with Luis Arraez obviously the first name that pops into mind. Defensively, he has received mixed reviews at shortstop and could stick there with some refinement despite just average speed. He's light on his feet but does take quick, short steps that could profile better for him at second or third base. He has the arm strength to make third base work. The bat profiles better at shortstop due to the potential lack of impact, but he should be able to play every day regardless of where he ends up defensively. So far, his numbers are right in line with expectations as he's slashing .333/.391/.475 with one home run and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games between the Arizona Complex League and High A Lansing.

CBA-39: 3B Myles Naylor, St. Joan of Arc HS [ON] {video}
Slot value: $2.2 million. Signing bonus: $2.2 million.
My rank: #85. MLB Pipeline: #64. Baseball America: #66. Prospects Live: #97.
In being drafted 39th overall, Myles Naylor became the third highest drafted member of his family. His oldest brother, Josh, was drafted twelfth overall out of St. Joan of Arc Secondary School in 2015, while his middle brother, Bo, went 29th overall in 2018. Myles will join them out of the same high school here in 2023, and next he'll look to join them in the majors. He's primarily a power bat, with a whippy right handed swing that produces above average power especially to the pull side. His approach is pull oriented at this point as well, which can cause him problems with soft stuff, so finding more balance at the plate will certainly be on the docket for Oakland's player development. He's a pretty patient hitter and he's young, so it should be doable, and that power and athleticism in the box give a lot to dream on. The Toronto-area product is also a solid defender that should be able to stick at third base with a strong arm and the athleticism that I mentioned. There's nice upside here as a potential 20-30 home run bat with solid on-base percentages and good defense, something like a Josh Donaldson type of player with perhaps a tick less glove. He has held his own after being pushed aggressively to start his pro career, especially in the power department, slashing .214/.288/.381 with six home runs and a 55/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Stockton.

2-41: OF Ryan Lasko, Rutgers {video}
Slot value: $2.09 million. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($394,900 below slot value).
My rank: #73. MLB Pipeline: #89. Baseball America: #75. Prospects Live: #78.
Ryan Lasko is a really interesting one for Oakland. He has been one of the best all-around players in the Big Ten over the past two seasons, where he has combined to slash .340/.430/.614 with 27 home runs, 31 stolen bases, and a 77/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games. Lasko does a lot of things well. He takes pretty professional at bats and in 2023 walked more than he struck out for the first time in his college career, while he's not huge at 6', 190 pounds, his longer arms and legs give him average game power which plays well to the pull side. His pitch recognition is strong enough that he can turn on the ball with authority despite fringy raw exit velocities, though I'm not sure how well the power will play to the opposite field in pro ball with wood bats. Overall, it's not the flashiest offensive profile, but there aren't really any holes, either. He's an above average runner with excellent instincts that help him stretch for extra bases and steal bags, aiding to that all around offensive profile. The New Jersey native plays a mean center field, where his speed and instincts translate to plus defense that will keep him up the middle long term. That's important because it takes some pressure off his bat and will enable him to profile well as a bottom third of the order hitter while still playing every day. If the impact doesn't come around in pro ball, his defense will also buy him a place as a fourth outfielder who can play all three outfield positions. Lasko is a slow starter at times and may take some time to adjust to each level, but he'll come around. He's also young, having only turned 21 shortly before the draft. He didn't hit much in his pro debut, slashing .154/.233/.231 with a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games in the Arizona Complex League but like I said, he's usually a slow starter.

3-72: RHP Steven Echavarria, Millburn HS [NJ] {video}
Slot value: $1.01 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($1.99 million above slot value).
My rank: #71. MLB Pipeline: #60. Baseball America: #73. Prospects Live: #67.
The A's saved about a million and a half dollars against their bonus pool with those first and third picks, so they deployed all of it and more into third rounder Steven Echavarria, who signed for just over the slot value of the #27 pick here at #72. Echavarria will be an interesting one for the A's to develop with one of the most well-rounded profiles of any high school pitcher in this class. A velocity bump means that he was sitting in the low to mid 90's in 2023, touching 98 at best with running and sinking life. His above average slider is his best secondary, while his solid average curveball and changeup give him a full arsenal to mix and match against pro hitters. Everything plays up because he has excellent command not just with the fastball but with the secondary stuff too, which is a huge separator for a high school pitcher. The 6'1" righty has a loose, elastic delivery with strong, repeatable mechanics that help him maintain that stuff and command deep into his starts. He's skinny and doesn't have a ton of projection remaining, but he's already up to 98 and looks like he'll settle in as a mid-rotation starter. The North Jersey native didn't turn 18 until after the draft, making him extremely young for the class, and he's about as polished as they come for a high school arm. 

4-103: RHP Cole Miller, Newbury Park HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $653,300. Signing bonus: $1 million ($346,700 above slot value).
My rank: #83. MLB Pipeline: #121. Baseball America: #107. Prospects Live: #83.
This is the first pick the A's made in this draft that I can say I actively like. Cole Miller went well above slot value in the fourth round to sign for early third round money, almost exactly slot value for Steven Echavarria's position one round ahead of him and will bypass a UCLA commitment in the process. Miller was a bit of a late riser in this class who seems to be coming into his own, and I believe he'll continue to trend in the right direction for a long time. The fastball has ticked up and now sits in the low 90's and touches 96 at best, playing up because he gets great extension down the mound to give it flatter plane. His slider is now flashing above average and his changeup is coming along nicely as well, giving him a very solid three pitch mix. I really like the way he moves on the mound with a smooth, athletic delivery that promises to help him continue to add velocity as he gets stronger. For now, it's more athletic and efficient than it is explosive, so the A's will hope to find a little more quick twitch in him and bring it out. His command is generally pretty solid, though he can cast the ball and will have to tighten that up. At 6'6", 225 pounds, he's a big kid with room to mature his frame. So long as his command holds together, there's a nice floor here as a back-end starter with a ton of upside if he can find a way to get more explosive on the mound and add a couple more ticks of velocity.

5-139: RHP Nathan Dettmer, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: $459,800. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($34,800 below slot value).
My rank: #169. MLB Pipeline: #198. Baseball America: #81. Prospects Live: #171.
Nathan Dettmer's stock has been on a bit of a rollercoaster, so the A's are buying into his highs. He showed a ton of promise as an underclassman, then after a strong fall last year, was many scouts' pick to click in 2023. Dettmer had worked his way into top two round discussions at that point, but unfortunately he struggled in 2023 with a 6.32 ERA and a 65/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings. His strikeout rate dipped from 20.1% as a sophomore to 19.2% as a junior while his walk rate more than doubled from 6.1% to 12.4%. as his command backed up. He sits in low to mid 90's and touched 99 in the fall with hard running and sinking action to keep it off barrels, though it flattened out in 2023 and his velocity was inconsistent. The San Antonio native flashes a plus slider which functions as his best pitch, and it did still look good in 2023. The changeup had been coming along nicely but stalled a little in 2023, so it's fringy but has shown above average potential. He's working in a curveball as well to give a softer look. Dettmer pounded the strike zone as an underclassman, albeit with better control than command, but struggled to find the zone consistently in 2023 as he often spiked his slider and had trouble locating his fastball. The 6'4" righty has a very strong, sturdy frame which should lend itself well to starting, and he did do a good job of maintaining his stuff through starts in 2023. Even so, if he can't rediscover his previously loud stuff and find a way to get ahead in counts, he may have to fall back to the bullpen and let his fastball/slider combination overpower hitters. To this point, he has struggled to miss bats even when he has his best stuff, adding to the reliever risk. It will be interesting to see if the A's can finally help Dettmer put it all together and become the turbo sinker/slider power arm that he has shown flashes of. He threw three innings in his first taste of pro ball, allowing no runs while striking out three and walking one in the Arizona Complex League.

6-166: OF Jonah Cox, Oral Roberts {video}
Slot value: $354,500. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($54,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #161. Baseball America: #403. Prospects Live: #117.
Jonah Cox gives the A's a fun do-it-all type. He's been all over the middle of the country, having grown up in the Denver area before playing at three different schools in three years – Butler JC (Kansas) as a freshman, Eastern Oklahoma State as a sophomore, and Oral Roberts as a junior. 2023 may have been his first season at the Division I level, but you would never tell by watching him play. Cox slashed .412/.470/.646 with eleven home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 53/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games, highlighted by a 47 game hitting streak that marked the third longest in Division I history. If he had one more hit as a freshman, he would have hit over .400 in all three college seasons. Cox uses a simple, easy right handed swing to spray the ball around the field with extreme consistency, perfectly willing to go the other way or poke one through the hole. At 6'3", 200 pounds, he's strong enough to turn on the ball for some power to the pull side, keeping pitchers honest and helping him project for potential double digit home run totals at the big league level. Cox can get aggressive at the plate, especially against advanced pitching, so that will be something to watch as he has made the jump from JUCO to a small Division I conference to pro ball in consecutive seasons. A plus runner, he stole 120 bases in 175 career games over three seasons, with his instincts and baseball IQ providing an additional boon. He's just now learning the outfield after spending most of his career at shortstop and needs more refinement there, but there's no reason to think he won't put it together and become a solid center fielder. Overall, it's a fourth outfielder projection with many different ways to impact the game. So far, he's slashing .287/.366/.403 with a pair of home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 41/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Stockton.

11-316: RHP Drew Conover, Rutgers {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #220. Baseball America: #329. Prospects Live: #247.
The A's picked up their second Rutgers Scarlet Knight here and get an interesting arm in the process. He spent the first two years of his college career as a hard throwing reliever at Seton Hall, then parlayed a strong summer in the Cape Cod League (1.35 ERA, 20/6 K/BB in 20 IP) into a transfer opportunity to Rutgers. Transitioning to the rotation, he pitched to mixed results with a 4.50 ERA and an 83/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings. Conover provides a tough look for hitters. His fastball sits in the low 90's as a starter but touches 97 out of the bullpen, coming in with hard running and sinking action from a lower slot. He drops in an above average slider that looks plus when he locates it, with hard sweep that makes it a true bat misser. The West Jersey native can work in a cutter that splits the difference between his running fastball and sweeping slider, which together creates a nice spectrum to work against hitters. Conover is long and lean at 6'5", 185 pounds and utilizes a very loose delivery and a low arm slot that can be difficult to repeat at times. His 14.8% walk rate in 2023 was far too high if he wants to cut it as a starter, and without a reliable changeup, he has multiple factors working against his future in the rotation. He's probably a reliever, where he can let the fastball/slider combination eat and work the cutter in to keep hitters off balance. I do think that he could be very effective in that role. He faced four batters in the Arizona Complex League, striking out two and walking two.

15-436: OF Will Simpson, Washington {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #349. Prospects Live: unranked.
In Will Simpson, the A's get one of the more accomplished hitters in the Pac-12. After a pair of big seasons as a sophomore in 2021 and as a junior in 2022, he rode out on a huge 2023 in which he slashed .335/.418/.643 with 18 home runs and a 59/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He's a big guy at 6'4", 225 pounds, using his size, strength, and loose right handed swing to tap above average power in games. Meanwhile, he's an aggressive hitter with below average bat to ball ability, which could put a strain on his ability to tap power in games in pro ball. Simpson will need to shore up his approach to ensure his bat plays, and he'll have to do it quickly as a below average defender limited to first base. If the Seattle-area native can learn to better control the strike zone against high quality pitching, his power could make him a platoon or bench bat in at the major league level. Though he's a senior sign, he's young for his class and didn't turn 22 until a month and a half after the draft. He's on the right track so far, slashing .319/.367/.543 with six home runs and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Stockton.

17-496: 2B Colby Halter, Florida {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #452. Prospects Live: #403.
Colby Halter has been known to area scouts around Florida for a long time. He was a nationally known prospect out of Bishop Kenny High School in Jacksonville, alma mater of star relievers Jonathan Papelbon and Darren O'Day, but made it to campus at Florida. Jumping straight into the starting lineup as a true freshman, he hit .302/.379/.453 as a teenager but unfortunately that would be far and away his best season. He was eligible as a sophomore in 2022 but slashed just .240/.338/.380, then came back in 2023 to slash .247/.354/.397 with three home runs and a 34/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. While the shine is gone from his prospect profile, he still stands out as an extremely professional hitter that has risen to the occasion everywhere he's gone. After showing well on the high school showcase circuit and hitting over .300 as a true freshman at Florida, he also snuck in a very strong Cape Cod League performance (.288/.387/.471, 7 HR) last summer and has never looked overmatched at the plate. He makes a lot of contact from the left side, albeit with below average power that has stalled in college. He's got some range on the infield as well, though he's not an explosive defender and will likely be a second baseman going forward. Overall, it's hard to see enough upside for him to carve out a long term role in the big leagues, but it's hard to bet against Halter's advanced bat and feel for the game. He hit very well in the Arizona Complex League but slumped upon an aggressive promotion to High A Lansing, overall slashing .272/.366/.351 with a 36/16 strikeout to walk ratio through 34 games.

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