Tuesday, September 19, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Texas Rangers

Full list of draftees

The Rangers knew what they wanted and they went and got it. First off, they started with arguably the top player in the entire class in Wyatt Langford, who according to some evaluators is on par with or even a tick ahead of Dylan Crews as a prospect. After that, Texas leaned heavily into the pitching ranks, especially on hard throwers. Numerous draftees are touching triple digits or getting close to them, though many also come with significant reliever risk. Beyond Langford, it's really a boom or bust class, but it makes for a lot of interesting profiles in the meantime. The Rangers did manage all this despite not having a second or third round pick due to signing Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-4: OF Wyatt Langford, Florida {video}
Slot value: $7.7 million. Signing bonus: $8 million ($302,000 above slot value).
My rank: #2. MLB Pipeline: #3. Baseball America: #3. Prospects Live: #3.
It's not often that the #4 overall pick signs above slot value, but Wyatt Langford is worth every penny and more. More or less the consensus #3 prospect in the class, I had him #2 on my board just a hair behind #1 Dylan Crews. Langford is a major success story. Hailing from the small town of Trenton, Florida (population 2015, but enough to also produce country music singer Easton Corbin), he stayed home to attend the nearby University of Florida and rode the bench as a freshman, picking up just four at bats. However, he broke into the lineup in a big way with a massive sophomore campaign (.355/.447/.719, 26 HR), enough to push himself into top five discussions heading into the season. Langford only got better in 2023, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 home runs and a 44/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games to put himself on near equal footing with the more famous Dylan Crews. There are no holes in this profile no matter how hard you look unless you want to ding him for being a right handed hitting outfielder (like Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuña, and of course Crews). He's packed full of lean muscle at 6'1", with long arms that help channel that strength into at least plus raw power, if not plus-plus, that he taps consistently in games, leading to 47 home runs in 130 games over the past two seasons. It's a clean, leveraged, explosive right handed swing that's about as pretty as they come. He gets the barrel long through the zone, extends with ease, and puts natural loft on the ball all while maintaining big time bat speed to make the ball disappear. At the same time, Langford is an extremely disciplined hitter that rarely chases and makes a ton of contact, profiling as a plus pure hitter even if you take the power away. It's the kind of profile that can produce 30+ home runs annually while getting on base at a .400 clip in the majors. Previously thought to be a stretch in center field, his athleticism shined through in 2023 as he showed off plus run times that could help him stick in center field long term. He might slide back over to an outfield corner if he slows down at all with age, but the bat is truly special and he'll still be above average in either corner with a strong arm. Overall, it's an MVP-caliber ceiling with the floor of a very solid regular who sticks in the big leagues for a long time. It's hard not to love this pick at fourth overall because Langford very well could come out of this draft as the best player in the class. So far, he's off to the most impressive start of anybody in this class not named Nolan Schanuel (though I'm still buying Langford way ahead of Schanuel), slashing .359/.471/.697 with ten home runs and a 28/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games, becoming the only player in the draft class not named Schanuel to reach AAA.

4-108: RHP Skylar Hales, Santa Clara {video}
Slot value: $621,700. Signing bonus: $565,000 ($56,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #179. Prospects Live: #223.
Over one hundred picks later, the Rangers finally got to pick again and brought in a flame throwing reliever from the West Coast. Skylar Hales jumped back into the Santa Clara bullpen this year after spending 2022 as a starter, and in 2023 he posted a 3.38 ERA and a 66/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.1 innings. Hales consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can touch triple digits, with running life that makes it really tough to square up. He mostly lives and dies with that fastball, but he does flash a nice slider with sweeping action that could become a weapon with a little more refinement. Adding a cutter to split the difference between his running fastball and sweeping slider could help create more deception, but his delivery already provides some. Hale hides the ball well and releases from a lower slot, providing that combination of power and funk that teams like to find in their relievers. He pounds the strike zone with average command, which you don't always see from pure relief prospects. The Rangers love the fastball and will get to work on developing his secondaries, which could make him a solid reliever at the major league level. He showed well in his pro debut, posting a 4.22 ERA and an 11/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Down East.

5-144: RHP Alejandro Rosario, Miami {video}
Slot value: $437,900. Signing bonus: $437,900.
My rank: #102. MLB Pipeline: #212. Baseball America: #228. Prospects Live: #153.
Alejandro Rosario was a potential top one hundred pick out of high school in 2020, but he was raw and his asking price plus the shortened draft pushed him to college at Miami. The results haven't really been there in Coral Gables, so if you care about college pitchers' ERA, look away. After posting a 5.21 ERA as a freshman and a 7.05 ERA as a sophomore, he put up a career worst 7.11 ERA in 2023 to go along with a 91/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.2 innings. Obviously, you're not buying the performance here, but rather the stuff. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and tops out at 99, and Rosario maintains his velocity through his starts. His slider flashes plus with downer action, while his changeup has steadily developed and looks like a solid weapon in its own right. It's a pretty nasty three pitch mix, and he shouldn't get hit as hard as he does. Part of the issue may be a lack of deception, as Rosario opens early and gives hitters a long look at the ball out of his hand. He also shows fringy command and leaves a lot of balls over the plate. The Rangers are going to get creative with his development, certainly looking to mix up his pitch usage and make him a little less predictable from a hitter's perspective. There's a ton of upside here and more and more, teams are realizing that past performance, especially from pitchers, is not a strong predictor of future performance.

6-171: RHP Caden Scarborough, Harmony HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $339,400. Signing bonus: $515,000 ($175,600 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Caden Scarborough is way off the beaten path, having gone unranked on every major public draft board. That's never scared the Rangers before, and they popped him away from a Dallas Baptist commitment for late fourth round money. This is a total projection play. Scarborough currently sits around 90 with his fastball, usually topping around 91-92 in games with flat plane from a lower slot. His curveball looks promising with nice depth but needs to add significant power to miss bats in pro ball. Like I said though, the projection here is the draw. I've seen him variously listed anywhere from 6'5" to 6'7", and he's rail thin with room to add thirty or forty pounds to his towering frame. There's no sure things when it comes to pitching, but it's pretty much a lock that Scarborough will add significant velocity to both his fastball and his curveball. He's also a great athlete and a decorated basketball player, which should help him stay coordinated on the mound despite those long levers. The Rangers will need to be very patient, first stuffing him full of steaks and protein shakes to add weight while helping him round out his arsenal in order to remain a starter. This is a big time sleeper pick but the Rangers have hit on these before.

7-201: RHP Izack Tiger, Butler JC [KS] {video}
Slot value: $265,500. Signing bonus: $180,000 ($85,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #393.
I'm sorry, but is Izack Tiger not the coolest name in the draft? If not #1, it's certainly up there with Maui Ahuna and Carson Roccaforte. Regardless, he's got the stuff to match. A native of the eastern OKC suburb of Del City, Oklahoma, he has spent three seasons at Butler Community College in southern Kansas and finished off a solid 2023 where he posted a 3.93 ERA and a 121/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.2 innings. The fastball sits comfortably in the mid 90's and has been up to triple digits at times, coming in from a high slot with riding action. His hard cutter/slider comes in with upper 80's velocity and tight break, and he adds a solid changeup to boot. Everything is firm and he may need to incorporate something softer to change speeds more effectively, but you can't teach his kind of arm strength. Tiger attacks the strike zone but shows fringy command, often getting hit hard over the plate including on the Cape shortly before the draft, where his sharp 15/5 strikeout to walk ratio contrasted a bit with his .389 opponents' batting average. Already 22 and a half, he probably profiles better as a reliever in pro ball where he can simply seek to overpower hitters with his high octane stuff, and the Rangers could move him quickly in that role. In a brief Arizona Complex League stint, he allowed three runs (one earned) over four innings while striking out four and walking two.

8-231: C Julian Brock, Louisiana-Lafayette {video}
Slot value: $210,600. Signing bonus: $255,000 ($44,400 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #122. Baseball America: #371. Prospects Live: #275.
We get our first Texan here in the eighth round. Julian Brock is a product Fulshear, Houston's equivalent to Celina or Melissa in that it was a small town until very recently when it began to explode with brand new master planned communities. He headed east for college and spent four years at Louisiana-Lafayette, where he barely played as an underclassman before establishing himself as the starting catcher as a junior in 2022. He had his best year yet in 2023, slashing .315/.435/.559 with eleven home runs and a 53/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Standing 6'3", he comes with the power you'd expect from his big, strong frame, with the ability to produce some real moonshots to the pull side. He has become much more patient as he's progressed, helping him find good pitches to launch and driving up his on-base percentage. There are some questions about his ability to handle higher quality stuff, with some swing and miss present in the zone due to his power-conscious approach, but the offensive bar is lower for catchers and he's got the power/patience combination to hold his own in the lineup even if he hits for a low average. Brock is also a strong defender with natural feel for catching, showing off an above average arm that plays up due to his short arm stroke and ability to quickly pop out of the crouch. All of that points to a solid backup catcher profile, with the chance for more if he can make enough contact to tap his power regularly in games.

10-291: RHP Case Matter, Washington {video}
Slot value: $170,100. Signing bonus: $155,000 ($15,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #362. Prospects Live: #206.
Case Matter gives the Rangers yet another hard thrower. After serving as a swingman in 2022, Washington pushed him back to the bullpen in 2023 where he posted a 3.91 ERA and a 34/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings, which is nothing special but as with most of their picks this year, the Rangers are buying the stuff. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 97 with riding life from a lower release point, making it extremely difficult to square up. Matter can really rip through a breaking ball, too, but mostly pitches off his fastball and he hasn't always been consistent with his curveball and slider. To this point, everything has played down because he has below average command stemming from a high effort delivery with significant head whack in which he falls hard off to the glove side in his follow through. That will keep him in the bullpen long term, but with that high octane right arm, the Rangers think they can put him together just enough to be effective. If he can more effectively incorporate his offspeed stuff into his arsenal and show even fringy command, he'll be a big league reliever. In his brief Arizona Complex League stint, he allowed one run over three innings while striking out four and walking none.

11-321: OF Maxton Martin, Southridge HS [WA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($100,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Rangers used the rest of their available funds to go a bit over slot and sign Maxton Martin away from an Oregon commitment. The younger brother of Pirates prospect Mason Martin, who has hit well over one hundred minor league home runs and is currently in AAA, Maxton put his own name on the map with a strong spring. He packs a ton of strength into his 6'1" frame, showing off explosive bat speed that translates to plus raw power already. However, he has struggled to tap it against higher quality pitching, where his noisy load with a hitch makes it tough for him to get on plane with the baseball. He looked better this spring, but the transition to pro ball may not be smooth immediately. He's a decent runner that should lock down a corner outfield spot, and the Rangers hope more exposure and cleaned up mechanics will help him tap his prodigious power in games. There's some nice upside here even if he's a ways away. In ten games in the Arizona Complex League, he slashed .243/.378/.378 with one home run and an 11/8 strikeout to walk ratio.

12-351: RHP Paul Bonzagni, Southern Illinois {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Paul Bonzagni gives the Rangers another pitching prospect from North Texas. He grew up in the Grapevine, which sits between Dallas and Fort Worth and attended high school at local powerhouse Southlake Carroll. Originally committed to St. Edward's University in Austin, he switched gears and instead headed to Weatherford JC west of Fort Worth, then transferred out to Southern Illinois University this year. The numbers were decent at SIU, where he posted a 4.94 ERA and a 50/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.1 innings, but he pushed his name up draft boards with a strong turn in the Cape Cod League right before the draft in which he posted a 3.24 ERA and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.1 innings. Bonzagni sits in the mid 90's and tops out around 97 in short stints with running action, giving him very similar velocity to many other pitchers in this Rangers class. His short, sweeping slider looks like an above average pitch at this point and he can effectively turn over a changeup as well, giving him a really nice three pitch mix. Bonzagni pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen for SIU and never went more than two innings on the Cape, so it will be interesting to see what the Rangers do here. The 6'3" righty has a pretty easy delivery and shows close to average command, so they could run him out as a starter to see what happens. If not, he'll be a tough matchup as a reliever with that well-rounded arsenal and a semblance of command, potentially fitting into a long relief role. He looked sharp in his pro debut, posting a 2.38 ERA and a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Down East.

13-381: RHP William Privette, College of Charleston {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #178. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #252. Prospects Live: #164.
It may be the thirteenth round, but I find William Privette to be a very interesting arm. He was untouchable as a sophomore at College of Charleston in 2022 (0.91 ERA, 80/15 K/BB) and continued to throw well in 2023, when he posted a 2.36 ERA and a 64/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 innings. The velocity isn't overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and topping out around 96 while throwing in short stints, but it's extremely deceptive. Privette leans back as he breaks towards the plate, hiding the ball well despite longer arm action and coming from an extreme over the top release point. The fastball itself has huge riding action, making it a true invisiball. For now, he pitches almost exclusively off that fastball, also working in a solid changeup and a decent curveball. The 6'6" righty pounds the strike zone with average command, though it did take a slight step back in 2023. Going forward, he'll need to take a step forward with at least one of his offspeed offerings, but between his deceptive fastball, command, and size, the Rangers have a lot to get creative with and I think he'll work his way into the Texas bullpen sooner rather than later. He did get blown up a bit in a brief Arizona Complex League debut, allowing seven runs (five earned) over two innings, striking out two but walking eight.

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