The Reds went all over the place playing games with their bonus pool, not handing out a signing bonus anywhere close to slot value (either way above or way below) until their sixth pick. They went way above slot on a trio of high schoolers in second rounder Sammy Stafura, fourth rounder Cole Schoenwetter, and fourteenth rounder Kyle Henley, paying for those overages with sizable below slot bonuses to first rounder Rhett Lowder and third rounder Hunter Hollan in addition to other smaller scale savings elsewhere. Overall, I like a lot of the talent they pulled in and I can at least see the logic in the picks I didn't like as much, and you can't deny that there is a ton of talent in this class. Interestingly, only three of the nine pitchers the Reds drafted and signed have gotten on a mound in games so far, and only two have thrown more than one inning total.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.
1-7: RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $6.28 million. Signing bonus: $5.7 million ($575,200 below slot value).
My rank: #16. MLB Pipeline: #6. Baseball America: #8. Prospects Live: #9.
LSU ace and eventual first overall pick Paul Skenes deservedly earned most of the buzz this spring among college pitchers, but Skenes aside, no pitcher in the country was as impressive as Rhett Lowder. Already the reigning ACC Pitcher of the Year from 2022, he put together an unbelievable 2023 with a 1.87 ERA and a 143/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.1 innings despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home park and in an era of increased offense around college baseball. Lowder has always shown impressive pitchability, enabling him to jump into the Wake Forest rotation as a true freshman, and now with improved stuff he has become an elite prospect. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 97 with some run. He shows strong feel for an above average slider that has gotten better and better, with some flashing plus. His changeup is a true weapon and his best pitch, consistently grading out as plus while flashing plus-plus. Everything plays up because Lowder sequences and locates his entire pitch mix extremely effectively, with plus command that lets him attack hitters however he wants to. The 6'2" righty has an uptempo delivery but repeats it extremely well, effectively channeling energy up the chain and helping him maintain his stuff deep into starts. In an era of high energy pitchers modeling their games after guys like Max Scherzer, Lowder provides a bit of a contrast with a calmer demeanor as he quietly carves up opposing lineups. He's a watercolor artist in his spare time and looks like an artist up there on the mound, where his attention to detail makes him a bit of a throwback prospect. Besides Skenes, there is not a safer bet to become a mid-rotation starter in this draft class.
CBA-38: RHP Ty Floyd, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $2.26 million. Signing bonus: $2.1 million ($127,600 below slot value).
My rank: #55. MLB Pipeline: #58. Baseball America: #44. Prospects Live: #55.
Ty Floyd has been a known commodity to scouts for a long time now. A star at Rockmart High School in Northwest Georgia, he ranked as the #98 player on my board in 2020 but elected to attend LSU to help build what would become a National Championship program. Eligible as a sophomore in 2022 due to an early birthday, he looked good but hadn't quite put it together yet, coming in at #198 on my board. In 2023, he slowly crept up boards throughout the season and pushed back into the top one hundred range, then saw his stock explode with a magnificent seventeen strikeout performance against Florida in that National Championship series. Overall, he finished the season with a 4.35 ERA and a 120/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings and eventually pushed his way all the way into the top forty picks. Floyd is a great athlete that sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with his fastball, coming in with deceptive riding life from a lower slot and short arm action. Previously all arm strength, his secondaries have stepped forward that year and that made all of the difference in his profile. He now complements his average curveball with a new, above average slider, while a previously below average changeup has stepped forward to become a usable weapon. His command has improved from below average to fringy as he smoothed out his delivery, though that is one area the Reds would like to see him continue making progress. Between the arm strength, athleticism, physicality (listed at 6'2", 200 pounds), and positive trajectory on his secondaries and command, the Reds believe they have a mid-rotation starter on their hands with some real upside.
2-43: SS Sammy Stafura, Walter Panas HS [NY] {video}
Slot value: $2 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($499,300 above slot value).
My rank: #24. MLB Pipeline: #32. Baseball America: #33. Prospects Live: #25.
The Reds got a tremendous talent here in Sammy Stafura, and for half a million above slot vale, they really didn't have to break the bank to sign him away from a Clemson commitment. He was a known prospect heading into the spring, but really pushed his stock up with a tremendous performance once the New York weather warmed up. Stafura has always been a high contact bat, with quick hands and excellent feel for the barrel that help him keep swing and miss to a minimum, even against high quality competition. The bat path is a bit swoopy and will need to be ironed out so he can get more extension, but he's a cold weather bat and it hasn't hindered him yet. Though he's not huge at 6', 190 pounds, he has filled out a bit and now projects for average power, which will go great with his above average hit tool. Overall, it will be plenty of bat to profile in an every day role because he has a chance to be a plus defender at shortstop. Beyond his plus speed, he shows great body control at the shortstop position with a strong arm that makes him a great fit to stick there long term. There are some questions about his bat coming from a lower competition level in New York's Hudson Valley region, though from what I saw over the summer he had no issues with advanced pitching. I see him as a high on-base guy with the ability to pop 15-20 home runs per season and swipe a few bags while playing strong defense. He got off to a poor start in the Arizona Complex League, where he slashed .071/.212/.190 with one home run and a 23/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games, but he'll look to turn it around in 2024.
3-74: LHP Hunter Hollan, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $975,100. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($377,600 below slot value).
My rank: #155. MLB Pipeline: #100. Baseball America: #144. Prospects Live: #150.
The Reds went for a little more safety here with Hunter Hollan, a college arm with some strong SEC performance under his belt. Hollan began his career at San Jacinto JC in Houston, then transferred to Arkansas for his junior season and looked like a star in fall practice, where his stuff ticked up across the board. It settled back down in 2023, where he finished with a 4.13 ERA and a 74/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings, and the Reds signed him for a significant discount in the third round by giving him mid-fourth round money. After fluctuating a little, he now sits in the low 90's with his fastball, which topped at 97 in the fall, and he can work it into a hard cutter around 90 when he wants some movement. He throws a distinct curveball and slider, both of which have big depth but may benefit from some added power. An average changeup rounds out the arsenal. The 6'5" lefty is probably more of a pitchability guy at this point, effectively commanding both his fastball and his offspeed stuff to both sides of the plate so he can work them off each other and execute the game plan. There's still some projection remaining on his big frame too, so if he regains the added power he had in the fall of 2022, he has a shot to become a mid-rotation starter. The more likely role is probably that of a back-end starter since he doesn't really have a putaway pitch at this point, but with his deep arsenal, size, and pitching acumen, he should develop into a nice innings eater for the Reds.
4-105: RHP Cole Schoenwetter, San Marcos HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $640,300. Signing bonus: $1.9 million ($1.26 million above slot value).
My rank: #64. MLB Pipeline: #43. Baseball America: #54. Prospects Live: #63.
Here in the fourth round, the Reds spent massively above slot to reel in Cole Schoenwetter, giving him close to the slot value for the #45 pick to sign away from a UC Santa Barbara commitment here in the fourth round. He brings a great combination of stuff, projectability, and and athleticism, and the Reds are betting big on his front of the rotation upside. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 98 at best, with riding and running action from a lower release point that make it very tough to square up. He flashes plus with a big, power curveball with two plane action and also shows an inconsistent changeup, though it too looks like an above average pitch at best and should get there consistently with more refinement. The 6'3" righty has better command than you would expect from someone with stuff as explosive as his, though he can be prone to overthrowing and goes through bouts of wildness. The development path is pretty clear here. Schoenwetter will need to refine that changeup a little bit, which should be accomplishable by repetition alone, and he'll need to learn to better keep his long arms and legs in sync as he works through his delivery. Given his feel for spin, it would be nice to add a slider to give hitters another look, but that would be icing on the cake. If the Southern California native can accomplish those things, he has a chance to be an impact arm for the Reds.
5-141: C Connor Burns, Long Beach State {video}
Slot value: $451,100. Signing bonus: $448,600 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #169. Baseball America: #130. Prospects Live: #233.
Connor Burns was on my radar at the end of the draft cycle, but he was among the next group of names that I didn't quite get around to researching (it always has to end somewhere). Burns has a unique profile, and it will be fun to track his progress. He was completely useless with the bat over his first two seasons at Long Beach State, slashing .161/.219/.249 with four home runs and an ugly 82/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 games, but he still got his name penciled in every day because of his defense. Burns is an elite defensive catcher, and that may be putting it lightly. He's extremely twitchy for a catcher, popping out of his crouch as quickly as anybody to make plays on balls other catchers can't reach. It also helps him put his throws right on the money to cut down potential stolen bases no matter where the pitch is. Few catchers I've ever seen can make a play on a ball in the dirt and to his left or right and recover in time to cut down a runner. He can throw from multiple angles with precise accuracy, and beyond that, his plus-plus arm strength means he's getting it there in a hurry. In today's era of larger bases and more steals, that's an extremely valuable profile to have. So if he can hit at all, that's huge. Fortunately, Burns broke out with the bat in 2023, slashing .300/.368/.596 with 14 home runs and a 59/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. After striking out 38.1% of the time over his first two seasons while walking just 5.6% of the time, he brought those together with a 25.0% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate. He's still an aggressive hitter, but the chase rate is now under control, though he swings and misses a lot on balls both inside and outside the zone and that's an area for concern. He does show average power with a 90th percentile exit velocity approaching 105, and he homered four times in 23 games on the Cape last summer despite otherwise struggling with the bat. With his elite defense, the Southern California native should have a pretty safe path to the big leagues as a light hitting backup catcher. If he can make just enough contact to tap his power in games, he could play every day and hit at the bottom of the lineup. So far, he's slashing .173/.304/.373 with three home runs and a 43/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona, which is about what you might expect given his profile.
6-168: OF Ethan O'Donnell, Virginia {video}
Slot value: $348,400. Signing bonus: $307,500 ($40,900 below slot value).
My rank: #193. MLB Pipeline: #153. Baseball America: #153. Prospects Live: #119.
Ethan O'Donnell began his career at Northwestern, then transferred to UVA for his junior season and put up a huge year, slashing .354/.448/.587 with 13 home runs and a 57/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games. There is no standout tool here, but his track record of performance speaks for itself. He uses a whippy left handed swing to spray line drives around the field while showing some pop to the pull side, though with below average top end exit velocities, I'm not sure how much he'll be able to tap that power in pro ball. He's an aggressive hitter, but he makes it work by making plenty of contact both inside and outside the zone, and he made the jump from Big Ten to ACC pitching with ease last spring. Meanwhile, he's an above average runner with a strong glove in center field, likely enough to stick there long term. I see him as bit of a similar pick to last year's CBB pick Justin Boyd, with fourth outfielder upside if he can hold back on quality offspeed stuff and continue to make the most of his modest raw power in games. He's off to the hottest start in the Reds' draft class, slashing .326/.423/.537 with four home runs and a 23/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona.
8-221: 1B Carter Graham, Stanford {video}
Slot value: $215,400. Signing bonus: $212,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #221. Baseball America: #218. Prospects Live: #285.
In Carter Graham, the Reds are buying the power exclusively. He barely played as a freshman but exploded as a sophomore in 2022, when he slashed .331/.399/.642 with 22 home runs and established himself as one of the best hitters in the conference, but he struggled over the summer on the Cape (.200/.262/.293) and got off to a slow start in 2023. After hitting .067 over his first eight games, he slowly started to turn it around through March and April but never really got going until May, where he turned on the jets and ended up finishing the season slashing .315/.390/.558 with 15 home runs and a 55/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Graham has tremendous raw power that has helped him blast 37 home runs in 138 games over the past two seasons, and it will no doubt play up in pro ball. The hit tool is a bit more questionable, but he can get aggressive and doesn't have the pure bat to ball skills to make up for swinging at bad pitches. It's a quick right handed swing but it can get swoopy and stiff at times, likely playing in to that below average hit tool. At 6'2", 230 pounds, the Los Angeles native doesn't look like an athlete but he moves pretty well at first base, so while that's about the only position he can play with his below average speed, he'll make it work. His defensive limitations will put pressure on his bat, and unless he takes a step forward with his hit tool, he likely profiles as a platoon bat or bench option. So far, he's slashing .205/.321/.318 with one home run and a 16/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona.
11-318: 1B Jack Moss, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #209. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #191. Prospects Live: #166.
Jack Moss was the very last player on my rankings, but he's still an interesting prospect. He spent his freshman season at Arizona State before transferring to Texas A&M as a sophomore, where he has done nothing but rake to the tune of a .368/.447/.493 slash line, ten home runs, and a 93/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games in two seasons. Moss is an extraordinarily professional hitter that takes great at bats, running low chase rates and high contact rates on his way to walking more than he struck out in 2023. It's an opposite field-heavy approach, as he loves to get his hands inside the ball and drive them to left even on inside pitches. This inside-out approach does limit his power, and trying to elevate the ball more in 2023 didn't help his in-game power output. He doesn't leave the yard often and he doesn't always drive the ball with authority, leading to a well below average 90th percentile exit velocity which is concerning. He does show solid pull side power when he turns on the ball, but does so much more effectively on a line than in the air. The Reds could try to overhaul his approach a little bit and bump that 40 grade power up to 50 by sacrificing some hit tool, but I'm not sure he's built for that. Meanwhile, he's limited defensively and he'll need to hit for impact to work his way up, so he may not have a choice. So far, he's slashing .303/.405/.333 with a 20/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona, which is about what you'd expect from his profile.
14-408: OF Kyle Henley, Denmark HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $395,000 ($245,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #269. Prospects Live: #437.
The Reds pulled out the checkbook one more time here in the fourteenth round, where they gave Kyle Henley fifth round money to sign away from a Georgia Tech commitment. He's going to take some patience to develop, as he's fairly raw, but there is a ton of upside. Henley immediately stands out for his elite speed, which is truly a game changer when he gets a chance to turn it loose. A right handed hitter, he has very quick hands in the box that help him fling the barrel through the zone in a hurry. He's extremely projectable at 6'3", 180 pounds, so while the power isn't really there yet, he has a very good chance to grow into it with his size and bat speed. The hit tool is coming along as well, looking better in the spring against strong Atlanta-area competition than it did last summer against national showcase competition. All put together, the upside is tremendous, though of course it needs to be put together. Henley's plus-plus speed also helps him in center field, where he shows a solid arm and could develop into a well above average defender. He saw brief action in the Arizona Complex League, picking up three singles in thirteen at bats (.231 AVG) while striking out five times in four games.
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