Biggest Takeaways From the 2018 Season

In my second installment of this piece (see 2017 version here), I'll be looking at exactly what the most important and most memorable developments from the 2018 season were. First off, congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, taking home their ninth World Series title and fourth in the past fourteen years. What else should we remember about 2018?

Pitching Staff Management is Fundamentally Changing
When Buck Showalter failed to use relief-ace Zach Britton in the 2016 AL Wild Card Game because he was waiting for a "save situation," even as the game went into extra innings, it provided the spark that would slowly change pitching staff management forever. We saw it a little bit in the 2017 playoffs, then in 2018, the ball really got rolling. Starters are throwing less than ever, and the Rays (and to a lesser extent the A's) even experimented with openers. Guys like Ryne Stanek, Diego Castillo, Hunter Wood, and Sergio Romo served as openers for Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos, and the Rays benefited. I'd expect more teams to join the trend next season. In the playoffs, hooks came quicker than ever, and many of us were surprised to see starters come out for the seventh inning at all when they did. Closers came in in the eighth inning, and hopefully we'll see more of that next season. Whatever you think about bullpening or openers, the starting pitcher is going to continue to recede.

Data Analytics Works
The final four teams in the playoffs - the Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, and Brewers - were four of the teams that relied the most heavily on analytics. All those high school coaches, barstool pundits, and opinionated uncles who think "the nerds are ruining the game," they might want to either thank them for their favorite team's success. The "eye test" and "gut feelings" just don't match up to empirical data, and we're getting more and more of the latter every year. Sabermetricians already nearly perfected offensive evaluation with stats like wOBA and wRC+, and Statcast is even beginning to dip its foot into quantifying something we have struggled to understand forever: defense. Fielding percentage is an awful judge of ability, and sabermetric stats like DRS (defensive runs saved) and UZR (ultimate zone rating) just began to scratch the surface. With Statcast, we're at least beginning to understand outfield defense with stats like catch probability and outs above average. We still haven't quite figured out how to quantify infield defense with Statcast; that's up next.

Parity is Becoming a Thing of the Past
Unless the MLB does something, our divisions will look more and more like the 2018 AL East, with the Red Sox and Yankees blowing everyone out and the Blue Jays and Orioles sitting at the bottom with no chance. Rebuilds work, and the more you commit to them, the better they do. Look at the Astros. Playing .500 ball is not much better for your fanbase than playing .400 ball, which is in turn not much better than playing .300 ball. Simply put, if you're not winning, then it pays to tear down the team and just lose until your stockpiled prospects reach the majors. That's what we're seeing in Miami, Baltimore, Chicago (White Sox), and Detroit. This is both good for baseball and bad; it's good because it enables small market teams like the ones listed to compete with the Boston's, New York's, and Los Angeles's of the world, but it is bad because it just leads to awful teams and boring division races. I'm not sure what the solution is, but don't expect more than two or three exciting division races per season until something is done.

Mike Trout Might Be the Best Player Ever
The idea that Mike Trout might be one of the best who ever lived entered the national conversation a few years ago, but he might actually end up being the best player ever. Eight years into his career and only a few months after turning 27, he has 240 home runs, a .307/.416/.573 slash line, 189 stolen bases, and 64.7 fWAR. His 172 career wRC+ ranks sixth all time, behind only Babe Ruth (197), Ted Williams (188), Lou Gehrig (173), Rogers Hornsby (173), and Barry Bonds (173). The 64.7 fWAR are already 89th on the all time list, despite every single player ahead of him on the list having played more than 500 more games than him. He's already ahead of plenty of Hall of Famers, from Yogi Berra to Duke Snider to Ernie Banks to Willie Stargell, and he's likely to catch Tony Gwynn and Craig Biggio within the first month of 2019. And he just turned 27 on August 7th.

Clayton Kershaw is No Longer the Best Pitcher in Baseball
It's been a great run for Clayton Kershaw. From 2011-2017, his age 23-29 seasons, he went 118-41 with a 2.10 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 1623/283 strikeout to walk ratio over 1452 innings, good for a 29.1% strikeout rate and a 5.1% walk rate. By those numbers the average season saw him go 17-6 with a 2.10 ERA and a 232/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 207.1 innings. Kershaw's 47.4 pitching fWAR led the majors by a massive margin, 11.2 ahead of second place Max Scherzer's 36.2. That's not only a great run, but one of the best in history. However, there is reason to believe that that run is coming to an end. Kershaw turns 31 in March, and while that's not old, he figures to be past his prime. This past season, he went 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 26 starts, striking out 155 and walking 29 in 161.1 innings. Those numbers are great, yes, but not Kershaw great. His fastball velocity has been steadily declining from 94.2 MPH in 2015 to 93.6, 92.8, and 90.8 in the last three seasons as he has battled back problems. That's not to say Kershaw isn't still good; he's one of the best in the game and I expect him to contend for the NL Cy Young Award next season, but he's not *the best* anymore.

Something is Happening in Oakland
The A's went 97-65 in 2018 and captured the second AL Wild Card, though based on that record they deserved better. What people might not realize, though, is that they are here to stay. Their entire core outside of Jed Lowrie and second half addition Mike Fiers was young, with guys like Khris Davis (48 HR, .247/.326/.549), Matt Chapman (24 HR, .278/.356/.508), Matt Olson (29 HR, .247/.335/.453), and Lowrie (23 HR, .267/.353/.448) leading the offense and Sean Manaea (12-9, 3.59 ERA), Fiers (5-2, 3.74 ERA post trade), Daniel Mengden (7-6, 4.05 ERA), Blake Treinen (0.78 ERA, 100/21 K/BB), and Lou Trivino (2.92 ERA, 82/31 K/BB) leading the pitching staff. Out of that entire list, only Lowrie is a free agent, though Manaea might not pitch at all in 2019 due to shoulder surgery. However, on the flip side, Jharel Cotton will be back from Tommy John surgery. There are also prospects on the horizon, with Jesus Luzardo, Franklin Barreto, Jorge Mateo, and Ramon Laureano looking to break through sooner rather than later. Nobody saw it coming, but this team is very good and it's built to last. They're not going anywhere in 2019.

New Faces Everywhere
In 2017, we saw the rise of Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Corey Seager, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and others to stardom, and this year, the youth movement continued. Mookie Betts, after a relative down year in 2017 (.264/.344/.459), bounced back with a huge 2018 that saw him slash .346/.438/.640 with 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases, and he's likely to take home the AL MVP Award. Now with 28.7 fWAR over the past three seasons, he has elevated himself to superstar levels. Alex Bregman had a huge season, building on his .284/.352/.475 2017 season by slashing .286/.394/.532 with 31 home runs and 51 doubles, surprising many by being the best hitter in a formidable Houston lineup. The A's have a of young defensive wiz that can also swing the bat in Matt Chapman (24 HR, .278/.356/.508). On the mound, quite a few new starting pitchers turned into aces. Aaron Nola posted a 2.37 ERA and looks poised to lead the Phillies into contention, while Blake Snell dropped his ERA below 2.00. Kyle Freeland even got in on the fun from Colorado, becoming the first Rockies' starter since Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010 to drop his ERA below 3.00. Josh Hader was an unstoppable force in the Milwaukee bullpen, striking out 143 batters in just 81.1 innings (but not without dodging controversy). Oh, and out of Betts, Bregman, Chapman, Nola, Snell, Freeland, and Hader, Betts is the oldest and even he will play the entire 2019 season at just 26 years old.
Don't Forget the Rookies
This year's rookie class was among the best we've ever seen. Shohei Ohtani fulfilled the lofty expectations placed on him and while he won't get to pitch in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, he has already elevated himself to stardom with both his bat and his arm. Teenager Juan Soto took the baseball world by storm by sprinting up from Class A to the majors in just one month, then slashed .292/.406/.517 with 22 home runs against much, much older competition. Ronald Acuna, less than a year older than Soto, was equally impressive by slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases for the Braves. Walker Buehler was incredible in Los Angeles, posting a 2.62 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 151/37 strikeout to walk ratio before dominating in the postseason. Miguel Andujar stepped up when the Yankees needed him, slashing .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs and 47 doubles, while his teammate, Gleyber Torres, slashed .271/.340/.480 with 24 home runs. Harrison Bader showed a decent bat (12 HR, .264/.334/.422) but immediately established himself as one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. Even in that long paragraph of names, I left out guys like Joey Wendle, Ryan Yarbrough, Jack Flaherty, Lou Trivino, Brian Anderson, Jaime Barria, Brad Keller, and Joey Lucchesi.

And Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is coming in April

End of Season Awards: Rookie of the Year

Below are my picks for the AL and NL Rookie of the Year Awards. These are my picks, not predictions.

American League Rookie of the Year

Winner: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): 52 HR, 114 RBI, .284/.422/.627 slash, .430 wOBA, 173 wRC+, 9 SB, 8.2 fWAR

Come on now, this one is easy. The 25 year old led AL rookies in games (155), runs (128), home runs (52), RBI (114), walks (127), on-base percentage (.422), OPS (1.049), wOBA (.430), wRC+ (173), and fWAR (8.2), setting the rookie record with his 52 home runs. What Judge did was nothing short of historic, and he'll easily win the AL ROY unanimously.

Runner-up: Andrew Benintendi (Boston Red Sox): 20 HR, 90 RBI, .271/.352/.424 slash, .332 wOBA, 103 wRC+, 20 SB, 2.2 fWAR

The Best of the Rest is Andrew Benintendi, a pre-season frontrunner for this award who played roughly as expected. In 151 games, the Boston left fielder slashed .271/.352/.424 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases, providing a little bit of power, speed, on-base ability, and defense. Just two years removed from college ball at the University of Cincinnati, he has been a key piece of the Red Sox run, and he's likely not done ascending. It was a very good season for a rookie, but in the year of Judge, it will have to be second place.

Honorable mention: Trey Mancini (Baltimore Orioles): 24 HR, 78 RBI, .293/.338/.488 slash, .349 wOBA, 117 wRC+, 1 SB, 1.8 fWAR

Trey Mancini doesn't provide the same defensive value as Benintendi, but he's been one of the best rookie hitters in the game this year. Over 147 games, he slashed .293/.338/.488 with 24 home runs, leaving some to be desired in the on-base percentage category but for the most part producing at an above-league-average pace. He actually had a 17 game hitting streak from September 11th to September 29th, which only ended because he was walked twice on the 30th. Never a top prospect coming up out of Notre Dame, Mancini has hit his way into being a productive major leaguer.

Just missed: Yulieski Gurriel (18 HR, .299/.332/.486, 1.8 fWAR), Jordan Montgomery (9-7, 3.88 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), Parker Bridwell (10-3, 3.64 ERA, 1.20 WHIP)

National League Rookie of the Year

Winner: Cody Bellinger (Los Angeles Dodgers): 39 HR, 97 RBI, .267/.352/.581 slash, .380 wOBA, 138 wRC+, 10 SB, 4.0 fWAR

This year won't have any suspense when it comes to Rookie of the Year winners. Judge will win unanimously in the AL, and Bellinger should be the unanimous NL ROY. Despite not coming up until April 25th, he blasted 39 home runs and got on base at a .352 clip, including a stretch where he hit 12 home runs in 15 games from June 10th to June 25th. He couldn't quite keep up with Aaron Judge (who can?) but the final line was pretty incredible for a kid who turned 22 mid-season. Not surprisingly, he led NL rookies in runs (87), doubles (26), home runs (39), RBI (97), and fWAR (4.0), and he would have led in most rate stats had it not been for 50 games of Rhys Hoskins. On top of everything, he has the prettiest swing in baseball with a violent uppercut. 

Runner-up: Paul DeJong (St. Louis Cardinals): 25 HR, 65 RBI, .285/.325/.532 slash, .359 wOBA, 122 wRC+, 1 SB, 3.0 fWAR

DeJong very quietly put together an excellent rookie season, slugging 25 home runs with a .325 on-base percentage and solid defense at a premium position, shortstop. Perhaps the only flaw in the 23-24 year old rookie's game was his lack of walks (21, or 4.7% of his plate appearances), but with all the other factors of his game, the Cardinals should be willing to be patient on the development of his, you could say, patience. He avoided long slumps, never posting an OPS below .739 in any month, and clubbing at least five home runs in each of his four full months from June onward. Don't look now, but DeJong could become a Jhonny Peralta-type player for the Cardinals, providing long term value but with a little more power than Peralta. 

Honorable mention: Kyle Freeland (Colorado Rockies): 11-11, 4.10 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 107/63 K/BB

Don't let the high-ish ERA and WHIP fool you; Freeland has been excellent this year for the Rockies. Pitching in the toughest of conditions, he managed to put up a respectable line that would look good for any rookie, regardless of Coors Field-status. Somehow, he was actually better at Coors (3.72 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) than he was on the road (4.57 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), though it's understandable that a 24 year old rookie might have trouble pitching in unfamiliar parks. Overall, though, he put up better numbers than most other rookie starters, even those that didn't have to make 19 appearances (16 starts) at Coors Field.

Just missed: Ian Happ (24 HR, .253/.328/.514, 1.8 fWAR), Josh Bell (26 HR, .255/.334/.466, 0.8 fWAR), Luis Castillo (3-7, 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)

First Half Awards

AL MVP: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): 30 HR, 66 RBI, .329 AVG, 6 SB, 197 wRC+.

After a fairly miserable debut in 2016 (.179/.263/.345), Judge has been unstoppable in his first full season, slashing .329/.448/.691 with 30 home runs through 84 games, already setting the Yankees rookie home run record and winning a Home Run Derby. His 197 wRC+ shows that he's creating nearly twice as many runs as the league average hitter, and although he has struck out in 29.8% of his plate appearances, he has also walked in 16.7%, providing value in more than just home run power. His outside-the-zone swing percentage is down from 33.6% last year to 24.1% this year, showing sustainable success. Mark McGwire holds the rookie record with 49 home runs, but Judge is just 19 away and could easily become the first rookie ever to hit 50 in a season. His on-base percentage sits at .448 right now, and even if he follows Steamer's fairly pessimistic projection and posts a .352 OBP for the rest of the season, he'll still finish at .408, so he's the whole offensive package. He's been worth 5.5 fWAR this year, well ahead of second-place Jose Altuve's 4.4.

Runner-up: Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Indians): 17 HR, 48 RBI, .332 AVG, 10 SB, 157 wRC+.

After Judge, there are a lot of players who have produced about the same amount this year, but I chose to put Ramirez in the runner-up spot because of the ridiculous amount of lineup protection in Houston, where George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa all could easily fill this spot. Ramirez has put up his own crazy-good numbers without the same amount of protection in the lineup, slashing .332/.388/.601 with 17 home runs and 27 doubles through 86 games. Adding ten stolen bases and good defense at third base, he has been worth 3.9 fWAR, holding up more than his fair share of the responsibility as part of the Indians young dynamic duo with Francisco Lindor. He's been especially hot as of late, slashing .401/.446/.774 since June 3rd, spearheading the Indians' run to the top of the AL Central.

Honorable mentions: Jose Altuve (13 HR, .347 AVG, 18 SB, 161 wRC+), George Springer (27 HR, .310 AVG, 2 SB, 164 wRC+), Carlos Correa (20 HR, .325 AVG, 0 SB, 161 wRC+), Mike Trout (16 HR, .337 AVG, 10 SB, 208 wRC+)

NL MVP: Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals): 20 HR, 65 RBI, .325 AVG, 2 SB, 161 wRC+.

Bryce has been producing back at his 2015 levels, slashing .325/.431/.590 in the middle of a lineup that has been one of the most prolific in baseball. He sits second to Joey Votto in just about every offensive category, but because he adds value with good defense in right field, he truly contributes to the Nationals in every way he can. He slumped a bit in late May and into early June, but he seems to have rebounded and is slashing .433/.528/.700 in the month of July, currently sitting on an eight game hitting streak. Overall, he has been worth 3.8 fWAR.

Runner-up: Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): 26 HR, 68 RBI, .315 AVG, 3 SB, 167 wRC+.

Votto's edge over Paul Goldschmidt is razor thin, but I think he has just enough to take the runner-up spot, slashing .315/.427/.631 with 26 home runs through 88 games. Arguably the closest thing this generation of baseball players has to Ted Williams, Votto has walked in 16.1% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 10.9%. He hits for power, he gets on base, he makes the hitters around him better, and he's overall one of the very first bats I'd pick to be in my lineup this year. What's even crazier is that his .291 BABIP says that he may have been the recipient of bad luck so far, especially considering his career rate is .354, though his hard hit rate and soft hit rates aren't quite as stellar as they have been in the past, so who knows. What we do know is that Votto leads the NL in home runs (26), slugging percentage (.631), OPS (1.058), wOBA (.432), and wRC+ (167), and that he has been worth 3.8 fWAR.

Honorable mentions: Paul Goldschmidt (20 HR, .312 AVG, 13 SB, 153 wRC+), Daniel Murphy (14 HR, .342 AVG, 1 SB, 146 wRC+), Justin Turner (10 HR, .377 AVG, 2 SB, 183 wRC+), Ryan Zimmerman (19 HR, .330 AVG, 1 SB, 148 wRC+).

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (Boston Red Sox): 11-4, 2.75 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 178/22 K/BB.

During his time with the White Sox, Sale bounced back and forth between "very good" and "excellent," and when he was shipped over to a tougher division and a tougher home park in Boston, it was expected that his numbers would revert back to "very good," at least at first, as had happened with David Price. However, Sale had no intentions of letting that happen, instead putting himself on pace for what may be the best season of his career with a 2.75 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. He has struck out 35.9% of the batters he has faced, which is a ridiculous number for a starter, meanwhile walking only 4.4%. He has been surprisingly consistent, as you might be surprised to hear he has just three scoreless starts this season, but he hasn't been blown up in any, either. His best start came on April 20th, when he struck out 13 Blue Jays over eight shutout innings, allowing four hits and walking just one. His worst start came in his return to Chicago, when the White Sox touched him up for six runs (five earned) over five innings, but he still struck out nine.

Runner-up: Dallas Keuchel (Houston Astros): 9-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 69/18 K/BB.

Keuchel has only made eleven starts due to injuries, but no pitcher other than Chris Sale has been able to step in and firmly take over this runner-up spot, with even the best pitchers' ERA's creeping up close to 3.00. Over a month ago, when Keuchel made his most recent start, he was the clear front runner for the AL Cy Young Award, holding a 1.67 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and just 48 hits allowed in 75.2 innings. He has given up more than two runs in just one of his eleven starts, when manager A.J. Hinch left him in too long and he gave up three runs in the ninth inning while vying for a complete game. Other than that easily avoidable bad-on-paper start, he is 9-0 with a 1.20 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. When he's on the mound, he's easily been the most dominant pitcher in baseball this year, and we're eagerly awaiting his imminent return.

Honorable mentions: Corey Kluber (7-3, 2.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP), Jason Vargas (12-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), Ervin Santana (10-6, 2.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), Carlos Carrasco (10-3, 3.44 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).

NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals): 10-5, 2.10 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 173/27 K/BB.

Slowly and steadily, Max Scherzer has put up an amazing season. His 0.78 WHIP is lower than any full National League season since 1876, and if he can maintain the pace he is on, it will be the second lowest in MLB history, trailing only Pedro Martinez's 0.74 in 2000. He's also leading the MLB in ERA this year at 2.10, enough to give him the rare edge over Clayton Kershaw for NL Cy Young. He has absolutely dominated almost every time out, reaching double digits in strikeouts in 11 of his 18 starts and striking out at least one batter per inning in all 18. In terms of consistency, his worst month in terms of both ERA and WHIP was April, when he went 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, striking out 40 batters in 33.2 innings. Not bad for your worst month.

Runner-up: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers): 14-2, 2.18 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 159/22 K/BB.

We're seeing classic Clayton Kershaw, as he is in the middle of posting his fifth straight season with an ERA below 2.20 and a WHIP below 0.95. Like Scherzer, the highest ERA he has posted in any month was a 2.43 mark in May, and he has shown the uncanny ability to bounce back from tough starts and keep them from snowballing. He has only allowed more than two runs in a game four times this year, but in his subsequent start after each of those games, he is 4-0 with a 0.94 ERA and a 0.59 WHIP, striking out 39 in 28.2 innings. Nobody gets to Kershaw two starts in a row, and that's part of what makes him great.

Honorable mentions: Zack Greinke (11-4, 2.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), Robbie Ray (8-4, 2.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), Ivan Nova (9-6, 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), Gio Gonzalez (7-4, 2.86 ERA, 1.23 WHIP).

AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): 30 HR, 66 RBI, .329 AVG, 6 SB, 197 wRC+.

See MVP write-up. If Judge gets his projected 252 additional plate appearances this year (Steamer) and literally strikes out in every single one, he'd still slash .176/.290/.370 with 30 home runs, which would still theoretically have him in the running.

Runner-up: Andrew Benintendi (Boston Red Sox): 12 HR, 51 RBI, .279 AVG, 9 SB, 106 wRC+.

Benintendi won't catch Judge, but he's having a fine season in his own right. Through 82 games, Benintendi, who just over two years ago was still suiting up for the Arkansas Razorbacks, is slashing .279/.357/.446 with 12 home runs and nine stolen bases, showcasing an all around game that will be hugely valuable for the Red Sox in the coming years. If you look closer, though, he's actually having a better season than the numbers say. He had a horrible slump in which he went hitless in seven straight games from May 10th to the 17th, totaling 26 at bats, but outside of that, he's been putting up All Star numbers: all 12 of his home runs (obviously) with a .305/.375/.487 slash line. With his low .299 BABIP, he'll likely finish the season with better numbers than he has right now. He has been worth 1.4 fWAR this year.

Honorable mentions: Trey Mancini (14 HR, 44 RBI, .312 AVG, 1 SB, 133 wRC+), Jordan Montgomery (6-4, 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), Yulieski Gurriel (11 HR, 44 RBI, .297 AVG, 1 SB, 115 wRC+), Danny Barnes (2-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)

NL Rookie of the Year: Cody Bellinger (Los Angeles Dodgers): 25 HR, 58 RBI, .261 AVG, 5 SB, 145 wRC+.

While Bellinger hasn't quite dominated the NL the way Aaron Judge has dominated the AL, he's been quite amazing in his 70 games, slashing .261/.342/.619 with 25 home runs. He may not hit .300 to back up his power, but he has supplemented his average .261 batting average with 33 walks, good for 11.3% of his plate appearances and a .342 on base percentage. Of course, when you're slugging over .600 with those 25 home runs, anything more than an acceptable OBP is just a bonus. He already has six multi-homer games. From May 5th to June 25th, a span of just 48 games, he blasted 21 home runs. His uppercut is, in my opinion, baseball's most aesthetically pleasing swing, and when you add in his great defense, he's a complete player. He's been worth 2.3 fWAR this season.

Runner-up: Kyle Freeland (Colorado Rockies): 9-7, 3.77 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 65/41 K/BB.

Freeland has been an enigma this year. The 8th overall pick of the 2014 draft, Freeland has kept his ERA under 4.00 despite pitching half his games in Coors Field, an extremely difficult place to be a pitcher. Oddly enough, he has been way better at Coors (5-4, 3.23 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) than he has been on the road (4-3, 4.35 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). Additionally, he's somehow getting it done with a low strikeout rate (14%) and a high walk rate (8.8%) that should theoretically hurt him in an environment where any ball put in play is dangerous. He has induced 1.8 ground outs for every fly out, so he does have that going in his favor. In his final start before the All Star Break, he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the White Sox and finished with 8.1 shutout innings on one hit, three walks, and nine strikeouts at Coors Field.

Honorable mentions: Jesus Aguilar (9 HR, 34 RBI, .294 AVG, 0 SB, 131 wRC+), Josh Bell (16 HR, 44 RBI, .239 AVG, 2 SB, 107 wRC+), Antonio Senzatela (9-3, 4.63 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), Ian Happ (13 HR, 31 RBI, .257 AVG, 3 SB, 122 wRC+).

Tracking Awards: 5/22

AL MVP: Mike Trout (LAA): 14 HR, 34 RBI, .350 AVG, 9 SB, 222 wRC+. Last week: Trout.

Last week, Trout and Judge were neck and neck for this award, and while Judge blasted a pair of home runs to give himself sole possession of the MLB lead at 15, Trout has managed to put some daylight between himself and the rookie. He homered in four straight games from May 12th to May 15th, then added home runs on May 17th and May 21st. Riding a nine game on-base streak, Trout has somehow managed to make his May (.317/.508/.878) better than his April (.364/.443/.707), and he now leads the MLB in wRC+ (222) and the AL in wOBA (.487). His 3.1 fWAR puts him well ahead of second place Freddie Freeman (2.6), making MLB's only three win player still less than a third of the way through the season. Steamer now projects Trout to finish the season with a .320/.440/.632 slash line, which would rank as the best of his career, even with some regression through the rest of the season.

NL MVP: Freddie Freeman (ATL): 14 HR, 25 RBI, .341 AVG, 4 SB, 204 wRC+. Last week: Bryce Harper.

Unfortunately, Freeman won't hang onto this spot for long after an Aaron Loup fastball broke his left wrist, likely holding him out for ten weeks. For now, though, his numbers are the best in the National League. He's leading it with 14 home runs, as well as with his 204 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR, and .489 wOBA, the latter of which actually leads the MLB. Freeman was hot, too, when he got hurt, having homered in his last two games and having collected at least two hits in three of his past four games. His .341/.461/.748 slash line is pretty mighty, and the Braves are certainly going to miss it while he recovers. They added Matt Adams (.292/.340/.396) in a trade in response, but he's no MVP.

AL Cy Young: Dallas Keuchel (HOU): 7-0, 1.84 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 54/14 K/BB. Last week: Jason Vargas.

Here we have another injured player, though unlike Freeman, Keuchel is only expected to miss one start with a pinched nerve in his neck. After respective tough starts for Ervin Santana and Jason Vargas the week they each claimed this spot, Keuchel will be our third AL Cy Young in three weeks. Through nine starts, Keuchel is unbeaten (for what it's worth) with a 0.86 WHIP and an MLB-leading 1.84 ERA. Aside from one tough start where Astros manager A.J. Hinch left him in way too long, Keuchel has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his other eight starts. Leave out that eight inning, five run performance in Los Angeles on May 5th (in which he had allowed just two runs in the first eight innings before allowing three more in the ninth), and Keuchel's ERA and WHIP drop to 1.29 and 0.83, respectively. The Houston ace has done this by putting up a wicked, MLB-leading 2.97 ground out to air out ratio, taking advantage of the fact that ground balls are a pitcher's friend and limiting balls in the air. This has led opponents to bat just .217 on balls in play against him, and while that may be due for some regression, I don't expect it to float all the way up to his career mark of .294 as BABIP's tend to do. After a tough 2016 (4.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), Keuchel is pitching better than ever, including his 2015 AL Cy Young season.

NL Cy Young Award: Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 7-2, 2.15 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 62/8 K/BB. Last week: Kershaw.

Last week, I mentioned that partially because he had made two starts at Coors Field already, Kershaw's 2.43 ERA and 0.95 WHIP were his worst since 2012. He must have read this, because in his next start, on May 17th, he shut down the Giants over seven innings, allowing no runs on three hits and no walks while striking out five. His ERA and WHIP dropped to 2.15 and 0.89, respectively, but that 2.15 ERA is still his worst since 2012 and the 0.89 WHIP is his worst since 2013. Can you believe this guy? The two greatest players of our generation currently play in Los Angeles, with Mike Trout tearing it up for the Angels and Clayton Kershaw shutting it down for the Dodgers.

AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (NYY): 15 HR, 30 RBI, .321 AVG, 200 wRC+. Last week: Aaron Judge.

Something tells me the Yankees' 25 year old right fielder isn't letting go of this spot any time soon. He is leading the majors with his 15 home runs, and 39 games into his season, he is still producing twice the offense as the average player, as evidenced by his 200 wRC+. After slashing what was thought to be an unsustainable .303/.411/.750 in April, he has been just about as good in May, slashing .344/.432/.656. His .390 BABIP is pretty inflated, so expect some regression, but we've thought that was due for a while and it hasn't happened yet. For now, Judge can just keep blasting home runs and getting on base.

NL Rookie of the Year: Kyle Freeland (COL): 5-2, 3.31 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 32/24 K/BB. Last week: Antonio Senzatela.

Back to back tough starts have dropped Antonio Senzatela from this spot, but another Rockies' rookie starter has jumped in to scoop it up before Dodgers rookie Cody Bellinger could. Kyle Freeland has had all the same disadvantages as Senzatela by pitching in Coors Field, but it hasn't bothered him yet, as he has a 3.31 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP through nine starts. That gets even better when you consider his 3.80 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in four home starts, meaning he has a 2.89 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in five starts in more pitcher-friendly locations. Despite pitching in Coors, he actually has only allowed more than three earned runs in one of his nine starts. Take out the second MLB start of his career on April 12th in Coors Field, when he allowed six runs against the Padres, and he has 2.49 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over eight starts, five on the road and three at Coors. While Freeland needs to get his walk rate down (10.9% of the batters he's faced so far, or 24 out of 221), his secret to success has been the same as Dallas Keuchel's, as his 2.44 ground out to air out ratio leads the NL. Considering that he pitches in Coors Field (how many times can I mention that in one paragraph?), this number is even more important to him than Keuchel's is to himself.

Minor League Watch: Kolby Allard (ATL AA): 4-1, 1.65 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 41/13 K/BB. Last week: Taylor Gushue.

The Braves selected Allard with the 14th overall pick in the 2015 draft out of high school in California, but had he been healthy, he could have easily gone in the top ten picks and possibly within the top five. He's showing why this year, dominating the AA Southern League at just 19 years old. Through nine starts, the teenager has a 1.65 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 41/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 49 innings, forcing the Braves to at least consider promoting him to AAA Gwinnett. Down in Mississippi, he has allowed more than two runs in a start just once, as he allowed three in his most recent outing on May 19th. His most impressive start came on May 4th in Birmingham, when he tossed six shutout innings on three hits and no walks, striking out 11 Barons. Right now it's a four way race to see who will be the first player younger than me to break into the major leagues, with Allard, his AA teammate Mike Soroka (3.14 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), another Braves prospect in Ozzie Albies (.259/.308/.388 at AAA Gwinnett), and Padres prospect Luis Urias (.344/.429/.485 at AA San Antonio) making their cases.