Thursday, October 5, 2017

End of Season Awards: Rookie of the Year

Below are my picks for the AL and NL Rookie of the Year Awards. These are my picks, not predictions.


American League Rookie of the Year

Winner: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): 52 HR, 114 RBI, .284/.422/.627 slash, .430 wOBA, 173 wRC+, 9 SB, 8.2 fWAR
Come on now, this one is easy. The 25 year old led AL rookies in games (155), runs (128), home runs (52), RBI (114), walks (127), on-base percentage (.422), OPS (1.049), wOBA (.430), wRC+ (173), and fWAR (8.2), setting the rookie record with his 52 home runs. What Judge did was nothing short of historic, and he'll easily win the AL ROY unanimously.

Runner-up: Andrew Benintendi (Boston Red Sox): 20 HR, 90 RBI, .271/.352/.424 slash, .332 wOBA, 103 wRC+, 20 SB, 2.2 fWAR
The Best of the Rest is Andrew Benintendi, a pre-season frontrunner for this award who played roughly as expected. In 151 games, the Boston left fielder slashed .271/.352/.424 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases, providing a little bit of power, speed, on-base ability, and defense. Just two years removed from college ball at the University of Cincinnati, he has been a key piece of the Red Sox run, and he's likely not done ascending. It was a very good season for a rookie, but in the year of Judge, it will have to be second place.

Honorable mention: Trey Mancini (Baltimore Orioles): 24 HR, 78 RBI, .293/.338/.488 slash, .349 wOBA, 117 wRC+, 1 SB, 1.8 fWAR
Trey Mancini doesn't provide the same defensive value as Benintendi, but he's been one of the best rookie hitters in the game this year. Over 147 games, he slashed .293/.338/.488 with 24 home runs, leaving some to be desired in the on-base percentage category but for the most part producing at an above-league-average pace. He actually had a 17 game hitting streak from September 11th to September 29th, which only ended because he was walked twice on the 30th. Never a top prospect coming up out of Notre Dame, Mancini has hit his way into being a productive major leaguer.

Just missed: Yulieski Gurriel (18 HR, .299/.332/.486, 1.8 fWAR), Jordan Montgomery (9-7, 3.88 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), Parker Bridwell (10-3, 3.64 ERA, 1.20 WHIP)

National League Rookie of the Year

Winner: Cody Bellinger (Los Angeles Dodgers): 39 HR, 97 RBI, .267/.352/.581 slash, .380 wOBA, 138 wRC+, 10 SB, 4.0 fWAR
This year won't have any suspense when it comes to Rookie of the Year winners. Judge will win unanimously in the AL, and Bellinger should be the unanimous NL ROY. Despite not coming up until April 25th, he blasted 39 home runs and got on base at a .352 clip, including a stretch where he hit 12 home runs in 15 games from June 10th to June 25th. He couldn't quite keep up with Aaron Judge (who can?) but the final line was pretty incredible for a kid who turned 22 mid-season. Not surprisingly, he led NL rookies in runs (87), doubles (26), home runs (39), RBI (97), and fWAR (4.0), and he would have led in most rate stats had it not been for 50 games of Rhys Hoskins. On top of everything, he has the prettiest swing in baseball with a violent uppercut. 

Runner-up: Paul DeJong (St. Louis Cardinals): 25 HR, 65 RBI, .285/.325/.532 slash, .359 wOBA, 122 wRC+, 1 SB, 3.0 fWAR
DeJong very quietly put together an excellent rookie season, slugging 25 home runs with a .325 on-base percentage and solid defense at a premium position, shortstop. Perhaps the only flaw in the 23-24 year old rookie's game was his lack of walks (21, or 4.7% of his plate appearances), but with all the other factors of his game, the Cardinals should be willing to be patient on the development of his, you could say, patience. He avoided long slumps, never posting an OPS below .739 in any month, and clubbing at least five home runs in each of his four full months from June onward. Don't look now, but DeJong could become a Jhonny Peralta-type player for the Cardinals, providing long term value but with a little more power than Peralta. 

Honorable mention: Kyle Freeland (Colorado Rockies): 11-11, 4.10 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 107/63 K/BB
Don't let the high-ish ERA and WHIP fool you; Freeland has been excellent this year for the Rockies. Pitching in the toughest of conditions, he managed to put up a respectable line that would look good for any rookie, regardless of Coors Field-status. Somehow, he was actually better at Coors (3.72 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) than he was on the road (4.57 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), though it's understandable that a 24 year old rookie might have trouble pitching in unfamiliar parks. Overall, though, he put up better numbers than most other rookie starters, even those that didn't have to make 19 appearances (16 starts) at Coors Field.

Just missed: Ian Happ (24 HR, .253/.328/.514, 1.8 fWAR), Josh Bell (26 HR, .255/.334/.466, 0.8 fWAR), Luis Castillo (3-7, 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)

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