Thursday, October 5, 2017

End of Season Awards: Cy Young

Below are my picks for the AL and NL Cy Young Awards. These are my picks, not predictions.

American League Cy Young

Winner: Corey Kluber (Cleveland Indians): 18-4, 2.25 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 265/36 K/BB
Corey Kluber only made 29 starts, but he still eclipsed 200 innings for the fourth straight season and was as good as any pitcher in baseball. In those 29 starts, he posted a 2.25 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and an excellent 265/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 203.2 innings, making for a percent ratio of 34.1% to 4.6%. He may have been the single biggest reason the Indians were able to go from good to great as the season progressed, as his season didn't really get going until June. Over his first six starts, he went 3-2 with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, though that did include a three hit shutout of the White Sox on April 21st. Then, in his sixth start, he hurt his back, and he didn't return until June 1st. From that point on, Kluber was untouchable, going 15-2 with a 1.61 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP, striking out 224 and walking 23 in 167.1 innings. Aside from shutting out the White Sox on April 21st, he shut out the Orioles in Baltimore on June 19th while striking out eleven, and on September 12th, he shut out the Tigers on five hits. After the injury, he allowed more than three earned runs in a start just once and never allowed more than four, holding opponents to one or zero in fifteen of the 23 starts.

Runner-up: Chris Sale (Boston Red Sox): 17-8, 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 308/43 K/BB
Sale was almost as good as Kluber this year, keeping his ERA below 3.00 in a hitters' park, but the real story was the strikeouts. With 308, Sale had the most in a single season since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling struck out 334 and 316, respectively, for the 2002 Arizona Diamondbacks. His season was up and down, highlighted by rough patches but also including absolute gems for starts. On April 20th, he shut down the Blue Jays for no runs, four hits, one walk, and thirteen strikeouts over eight innings. He was similarly untouchable against the Yankees on July 15th (7.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 13 K's), the Rays on August 8th (8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 13 K's), the Blue Jays on August 29th (7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 11 K's), and the Orioles on September 20th (8 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 13 K's). When he was on, there was no better pitcher in the American League than Chris Sale.

Honorable mention: Luis Severino (New York Yankees): 14-6, 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 230/51 K/BB
He wasn't quite on the level of Kluber or Sale, but this was a pleasantly surprising season we saw from the 23 year old Yankee starter. After going 3-8 with a 5.83 ERA last year, Luis Severino turned it around to go 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, striking out 230 batters in 193.1 innings (29.4% of those faced) to lead the Yankees to the Wild Card. There were some bumps along the way, but Severino was very consistent for the most part, allowing two or fewer earned runs in 20 of his 31 starts. Overall, he finished third in the American League in ERA (2.98) and WHIP (1.04) as well as fourth in strikeouts (230) while pitching his home games in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

Just missed: Carlos Carrasco (18-6, 3.29 ERA, 1.10 WHIP), Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)

National League Cy Young

Winner: Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals): 16-6, 2.51 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 268/55 K/BB
It's very close between Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw, but having the edge in innings pitched and WHIP will be enough to give Scherzer the award in my book. Through over 200 innings, he posted a 2.51 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and 268 strikeouts (34.4% of batters faced), leading the three headed monster of a Nationals rotation to the second best record in the NL. In 23 of his 31 starts, he allowed two or fewer earned runs, giving the Nationals the chance to win nearly every time he went out there. This marks three straight seasons for Scherzer with a sub-3.00 ERA, a sub-1.00 WHIP, more than 200 innings, and more than 260 strikeouts, making his the Nationals look better and better for signing him to that seven year megadeal.

Runner-up: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers): 18-4, 2.31 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 202/30 K/BB
Had he not missed a month with a back injury, Kershaw likely would hold the top spot here. Despite making just 27 starts, he still threw 175 innings (averaging well into the seventh inning), and he was as good on a per inning basis as any pitcher in baseball. His 2.31 ERA and 0.95 WHIP may be his highest marks since 2012 (he still led the NL in ERA and was second in WHIP), but teams rarely got the chance to do much of anything against Kershaw. In 16 of his 27 starts, he allowed no more than one earned run. He also never allowed more than two runs in back to back starts, showcasing an ability to avoid slumps. His career ERA and WHIP now sit at 2.36 and 1.00, respectively, through nearly 2000 innings. At this point, it's not out of the question that he could find his name carrying the same weight as Walter Johnson, Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, and Pedro Martinez.

Honorable mention: Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): 15-4, 2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 204/47 K/BB
Strasburg only made 28 starts, but he still tossed 175.1 innings and went on a crazy run at the end of the season. He was pretty good in the first half (9-3, 3.43 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), but in the second half, he rivaled Corey Kluber for the most dominant pitcher in baseball. Over ten starts, he went 6-1 with a 0.86 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP, striking out 76 batters in 62.2 innings while allowing just six earned runs. That included a 35 inning scoreless streak that only ended on an unearned run, though Strasburg may have a tough time winning the award considering that to many analysts, he wasn't the best pitcher on his own team.

Just missed: Zack Greinke (17-7, 3.20 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), Robbie Ray (15-5, 2.89 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), Gio Gonzalez (15-9, 2.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)

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