Thursday, October 5, 2017

End of Season Awards: Manager of the Year

Below are my picks for AL and NL Manager of the Year. These are my picks, not predictions.

American League Manager of the Year

Winner: Terry Francona (Cleveland Indians): 102-60, .630 WPCT, best record in American League
Terry Francona may have his superstars (Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez), but this Indians team was built to win on chemistry more than anything else. While the Astros hit and hit and hit their way to a 101-61 record, Francona's Indians did a little bit of everything. They beat you at all angles with hitting, running, defense, starting pitching, relief pitching, you name it, and while that has as much to do with general manager Mike Chernoff building a great team as it does with Francona managing it, he sure as heck did a great job at that. The Indians got hot at just the right time, winning 22 straight games in August/September, and cruised into the postseason with the top overall seed in the American League. Francona busted the "Curse of the Bambino" in Boston in 2004, and with the Indians in a similar World Series drought, this one could be next.

Runner-up: Paul Molitor (Minnesota Twins): 85-77, .525 WPCT, 2nd AL Wild Card
Molitor's Twins had a very up and down season. After finishing 59-103 in 2016, garnering the league's worst record, they completely turned it around this year and looked like they were contending heading into the Trade Deadline. They acquired Jaime Garcia, but quickly got cold and flipped Garcia to the Yankees and closer Brandon Kintzler to the Nationals. Then, they got hot again, and by the end of the season, finished with the second AL Wild Card at 85-77. They ultimately lost the AL Wild Card Game to the Yankees, but it was a crazy ride for a team that was the worst in baseball just a year ago. They had no superstars, instead being led by the likes of Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano, Ervin Santana, and Jose Berrios. Molitor was able to fit this team together just enough to squeak what should have been a mediocre team into the playoffs, and that deserves as much credit as anything this year.

Just missed: Joe Girardi (Yankees, 91-71, .562), A.J. Hinch (Astros, 101-61, .623), John Farrell (Red Sox, 93-69, .574)

National League Manager of the Year

Winner: Tony Lovullo (Arizona Diamondbacks): 93-69, .574 WPCT, 1st NL Wild Card
Management may have shipped away Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte for 24 mediocre starts from Shelby Miller (so far), but that hasn't bothered Tony Lovullo. The D-Backs manager has taken a team led by Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez, Zack Greinke, and Robbie Ray, and pushed it to the third best record in the NL behind only the Dodgers and Nationals. He has gotten big breakout seasons out of pitchers Ray, Zack Godley, Taijuan Walker, and Archie Bradley, and he oversaw the transformation of Martinez from great hitter to demigod, powering the D-Backs through baseball's toughest division.

Runner-up: Bud Black (Colorado Rockies): 87-75, .537 WPCT, 2nd NL Wild Card
There is no tougher place to win than Colorado. It's nearly impossible to attract big name pitchers, and the Coors Field effect actually hurts the team on the road to the point where the hitters perform well below their park adjusted averages from home. Still, Bud Black took this team through the toughest division in baseball to an 87-75 record, and it wasn't in the same way most Rockies teams do it. When the Rockies do win, they usually do it through a plethora of hitting and just enough pitching to get by. This year, it was the opposite, despite a rotation full of rookies. While Jon Gray took a big step forward in his sophomore season, rookie starters Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, and Antonio Senzatela all exceeded expectations in a big way during their first tastes of the majors. Overall, the team posted a 4.51 ERA, good for 17th in baseball, which is actually amazing when you start to park adjust it. In pitching fWAR, they ranked eighth (18.2), and in ERA-, or park and league adjusted ERA, they ranked seventh (90, or 10% better than league average). Meanwhile, with Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado being the only consistent bats, their team wRC+ of 87 (13% worse than league average) ranked 27th in baseball. Overall, they won because Bud Black and his coaches were able to bring along young pitching in the toughest of environments and do it well.

Just missed: Dave Roberts (Dodgers, 104-58, .642), Craig Counsell (Brewers, 86-76, .531), Dusty Baker (Nationals, 97-65, .599)

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