Thursday, October 5, 2017

End of Season Awards: Reliever of the Year

These are my picks for the AL and NL Relievers of the Year. These are my picks, not predictions.
American League Reliever of the Year

Winner: Craig Kimbrel (Boston Red Sox): 5-0, 1.43 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 35 SV, 126/14 K/BB
From 2012-2014, Craig Kimbrel was arguably the best reliever in baseball, never posting an ERA above 1.61 and striking out at least 95 in each season. 2015 and 2016 were not nearly as great, with his ERA spiking to 3.40 in 2016 as he wasn't much more than an average closer. He bounced back in a huge way this year, dropping his ERA to 1.43 and posting an incredible 0.68 WHIP. His component ratios were absolutely ridiculous, as he struck out 49.6% (!) of the batters he faced while walking just 5.5% over 69 innings, totaling 126 strikeouts to 14 walks. To put that in perspective, he struck out, on average, every other batter he faced while walking just one in 18. There's no chance for bloopers to fall in or for you defense to make errors when you strike everybody out.

Runner-up: Chad Green (New York Yankees): 5-0, 1.83 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 103/17 K/BB
Green was actually better in relief than the overall numbers show, as he allowed two earned runs in two innings in his lone start on June 11th. Using only his 39 relief appearances, he put up a 1.61 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, and a 100/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings. Bringing it back to include that one start, the Yankee reliever struck out 40.7% of those he faced while walking just 6.7%, establishing himself as an elite reliever despite having just 45.2 major league innings under his belt prior to this season. The 26 year old out of the University of Louisville was also incredibly consistent, never posting month by month WHIP's of 0.75 in May followed by 0.78, 0.71, 0.71, and 0.75. His ERA also never climbed above 2.84 for any individual month, avoiding cold streaks while maintaining a high level of dominance.

Just missed: David Robertson (1.84 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 98/23 K/BB), Andrew Miller (1.44 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 95/21 K/BB), Chris Devenski (2.68 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 100/26 K/BB)

National League Reliever of the Year

Winner: Kenley Jansen (Los Angeles Dodgers): 5-0, 1.32 ERA, 0.75 WHIP,  41 SV, 109/7 K/BB
It didn't get much more automatic in the ninth inning than when Kenley Jansen was on the mound. The Dodger closer posted a 1.32 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP, striking out 42.2% of the batters he faced while walking a minuscule 2.7%, or just seven total across 68.1 innings. He actually didn't walk his first batter until his 31st appearance of the season, occurring on June 25th. From May 23rd to June 29th, he was as good as it gets, tossing 17 shutout innings while allowing just four hits and one walk (0.29 WHIP) with 21 strikeouts. At this point, with seven straight seasons of at least 50 innings and 80 strikeouts, having never posted an ERA above 2.85 or a WHIP above 1.13, Jansen may be the best reliever in the game.

Runner-up: Pat Neshek (Philadelphia Phillies/Colorado Rockies): 5-3, 1.59 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 1 SV, 69/6 K/BB
Very quietly, Pat Neshek was as good as anybody this year out of the Philadelphia and Colorado bullpens. Starting off with 43 appearances for the Phillies, he posted a 1.12 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP while striking out 45 batters (30.4%) and walking six (4.1%) in 40.1 innings. Out of contention, the Phillies shipped him to Colorado, where he had to pitch half of his games in Coors Field. Understandably, his stats took a hit, but he was still very good, posting a 2.45 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP, striking out 24 (27.6%) and walking just one batter (1.1%) over 22 innings. Combined, that's a 1.59 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 69 to six strikeout to walk ratio (29.4% to 2.6%). Had he not gained some publicity for the mid-season trade, he may have been the most under-talked about reliever in the game.

Just missed: Felipe Rivero (1.67 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 88/20 K/BB), Archie Bradley (1.73 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 79/21 K/BB), Brad Hand (2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 104/20 K/BB)

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