Sunday, April 30, 2017

Tracking Awards 4/30


AL MVP: Mike Trout (LAA): 7 HR, 18 RBI, .365 AVG, 5 SB, 223 wRC+. Last week: Trout.
What else is new? Early on, Mike Trout is right there atop the American League. He is slashing .365/.436/.719 through 27 games, leading the AL in games played, hits (35), extra base hits (18), total bases (69), wRC+ (223), wOBA (weighted on-base average, .474), and fWAR (2.0). He's sitting on a 13 game hitting streak right now, and in all but one of them he's had at least two total bases. He also hasn't struck out more than once in any of those games. He's only just started his seventh season, but he's working his way up the list of the all time greatest players.

NL MVP: Ryan Zimmerman (WSH): 11 HR, 27 RBI, .410 AVG, 1 SB, 246 wRC+. Last week: Bryce Harper.
Through just 23 games, Ryan Zimmerman has nearly half as many total bases (74) as he did in all of 2016 (158). Just one season after slashing .218/.272/.370 and putting up a 67 wRC+, which would have been the third worst in the MLB had he qualified, he is off to a .410/.456/.892 start, putting up a major league leading 246 wRC+. What has gotten into this guy? The answer is in the launch angle. In 2016, he had elite exit velocity, averaging 93.3 MPH, while this season is virtually the same at 93.2 MPH. However, last year, the ball only travelled 166 feet on average, while this season he's averaging 219 feet per batted ball, because he's not pounding the ball into the ground any more. Contrary to popular belief, the secret to hitting is in going for fly balls, not ground balls. Zimmerman has been hot all season, but he has really gone to another level over his last eleven games, slashing a whopping .488/.533/1.146 with eight home runs in that span. With Adam Eaton out for the season with an ACL injury, it is critical that Zim keeps producing the way he is.

AL Cy Young: Ervin Santana (MIN): 4-0, 0.77 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 26/10 K/BB. Last week: Santana.
Ervin Santana is still going at it. Through five starts, he's allowed just three runs on thirteen hits and ten walks over 35 innings, good for an MLB best 0.77 ERA and 0.66 WHIP. In no single start has he allowed more than one run, four hits, or three walks, with his "worst" start of the season coming on April 20th against Cleveland, where he went six innings and allowed just one run on four hits and three walks, striking out five. His best start was just five days earlier, when he shut out the White Sox on one hit, one walk, and eight strikeouts over nine innings. We don't know what has gotten into Ervin, but its working.

NL Cy Young: Ivan Nova (PIT): 3-2, 1.50 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 22/1 K/BB. Last week: Noah Syndergaard.
Ivan Nova may have had an unspectacular start on April 12th, when he allowed three runs on eight hits and no walks over six innings against the Reds, but aside from that one game, he's simply been spectacular. In his four other starts, he is 3-1 with a 0.90 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP, striking out 21 and walking just one over 30 innings. In his most recent start, on Saturday, he shut out the Marlins on three hits and no walks, striking out seven in nine innings. As of now, Yankees pitcher Jordan Montgomery is the only player to draw a walk against Nova.

AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (NYY): 10 HR, 20 RBI, .301 AVG, 1 SB, 217 wRC+. Last week: Mitch Haniger.
Coming into the season, we were worried that Judge wouldn't make enough contact in the bigs to get to his huge power. He struck out in 23.9% of his plate appearances in AAA in 2016, then a whopping 44.2% of his plate appearances in 27 major league games. According to Fangraphs, he swung at 33.6% of pitches out of the zone, and even on pitches in the zone, he made contact only 78.9% of the time. However, 2017 is a different story. He has dropped his strikeout rate to 26.2% by swinging at just 24.1% of pitches out of the zone and making contact 86.5% of the time in the zone. This has led to some huge offensive numbers, as he is slashing .301/.393/.767 (217 wRC+) over 21 games, mashing 10 home runs. His average exit velocity of 94.5 MPH ranks sixth in the MLB, and his 119.4 MPH home run off of Kevin Gausman on Friday was the hardest-hit home run in Statcast history (since 2015). Aaron Judge was looked at very much as a boom-or-bust prospect coming up, and while the jury is still out, he's looking like a boom right now.

NL Rookie of the Year: Antonio Senzatela (CIN): 3-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 18/7 K/BB. Last week: Senzatela
Update on Senzatela: one week later, still nobody has told him that pitching in Coors Field is supposed to be difficult. Despite making three of his five starts so far in pitchers' hell, he has a 2.81 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, walking just seven guys in 32 innings. Over three starts at Coors, he has a very respectable 3.15 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, by any stadium's standards, and in his two road starts, his ERA and WHIP are 2.25 and 1.00, respectively. He made just seven starts above High Class A coming into the season, but the 22 year old has taken the majors by storm.

Minor League Watch: Domenic Mazza (SF Class A): 1-2, 3.48 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 17/4 K/BB. Last week: Tyler Mahle.
Another week, another perfect game in the minor leagues. This one comes from Giants prospect Domenic Mazza, a 22 year old right hander with the Class A Augusta GreenJackets. Mazza was a 22nd round pick out of UC Santa Barbara in 2015, but he has worked his way into the mid-minors now. His first start of the season was ugly, as he allowed seven runs on seven hits and a walk over 2.2 innings, striking out one. He improved in his second start, allowing one run on eight hits and one walk over four innings, striking out two. He was even better in his third start, tossing five shutout innings on three hits and two walks, striking out four. Then, on April 25th, he toed the rubber against a strong Lexington Legends offense including highly regarded Royals' prospects such as Khalil Lee (a Northern Virginia kid out of Flint Hill), Chris DeVito, and Kort Peterson. 27 batters later, he had a perfect game, striking out eight Legends (including Lee all three times and DeVito twice) without allowing a single batter to reach base. In his three starts since the seven run meltdown in Columbia, he has a 0.50 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, striking out 15 in 18 innings while walking just three.

Sunday, April 23, 2017

Tracking Awards: 4/23

If The Season Ended Today

AL MVP: Mike Trout (LAA): 5 HR, 14 RBI, .343 AVG, 3 SB, 212 wRC+. Last week: Francisco Lindor
Wow, what do you know, Mike Trout is on pace to win another MVP award. Through 19 games, he has five home runs with a pretty .343/.420/.686 slash line, leading the AL with that .686 slugging percentage. This has come from spreading his offense out, has he has not posted back to back hitless games yet this season, with his longest hitless streak being just five at bats in Kansas City. What else is there to say? At this point, nothing should surprise us about Mike Trout.

NL MVP: Bryce Harper (WSH): 7 HR, 20 RBI, .393 AVG, 0 SB, 250 wRC+. Last week: Zack Cozart.
Harper and Freddie Freeman are having essentially the exact same season at the plate, as both have 24 hits and seven home runs, with Harper doing so in one more at bat. All-encompassing stats like them just about the same, with wRC+ giving Freeman the edge 251 to 250, wOBA going to Freeman .550 to .548, OPS falling on Harper 1.362 to 1.357, and fWAR favoring Harper 1.6 to 1.5. I'll ultimately give it to Harper because of positional value, with Fangraphs rating him out just better than Freeman there. Harper is having a monster season, slashing .393/.526/.836 (Freeman's nearly identical line is .400/.507/.850), clubbing six doubles and seven home runs in 17 games. He is leading the MLB with 17 walks as well, making his .526 on-base percentage easily the highest in baseball. On Wednesday, he had possibly the best game we've seen from any hitter this season, as he knocked a single, a double, and two home runs in four at bats while also drawing an intentional walk in Atlanta. Not only that, but it was his second four-hit game of the season. 2015 Bryce is back.

AL Cy Young: Ervin Santana (MIN): 3-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, 20/8 K/BB. Last week: James Paxton.
After seeing Trout and Harper be the early MVP's, seeing Ervin Santana's name under AL Cy Young is a bit different. Through four starts, Santana has allowed just two runs on nine hits, walking eight to put up an MLB-best 0.61 WHIP. His best game was on April 15th, when he held the White Sox to just two baserunners in a one-hit shutout, striking out eight. He had his worst game of the season on Thursday, allowing one run on four hits and three walks over six innings against the division-leading Indians, and if that's the worst you can do, you'll take it every time. The 34 year old may be in his 13th major league season, but two runs on seventeen baserunners over 28 innings to start the season isn't half bad.

NL Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard (NYM): 1-1, 1.73 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 30/0 K/BB. Last week: Syndergaard.
Nobody really stands out in the NL Cy Young field, but I'll go with Noah Syndergaard for a couple of reasons. Through four starts, he has allowed five earned runs on 23 hits over 26 innings, which is great in and of itself but not quite Cy Young level. On the flip side, he is still yet to walk a batter, and his 30 strikeouts give him a very solid 10.38 per nine innings. He has also had very little help from his defense, as they've allowed a .324 batting average on balls in play, which is a little bit higher than you would want, while also making enough errors to allow four unearned runs. Pitching with a sloppy defense behind you can be tough, which makes Syndergaard's numbers even more amazing. He allowed just two earned runs in his first three starts before a tougher fourth start, in which he allowed five runs (only three earned) on seven hits and one hit batsmen over seven innings, striking out 10. We'll keep you updated on when Syndergaard finally walks a batter.

AL Rookie of the Year: Mitch Haniger (SEA): 4 HR, 16 RBI, .297 AVG, 2 SB, 185 wRC+. Last week: Haniger.
Haniger and Aaron Judge are neck and neck, with OPS slightly preferring Judge 1.016 to .977 and wOBA going the same way .421 to .417. However, Haniger has the narrow edge in wRC+ 185 to 183 and in fWAR 1.1 to 0.8, and I'll give it to Haniger because he has put up the same numbers over more plate appearances. Through 19 games, Haniger is slashing .297/.409/.568, cracking six doubles, a triple, and four home runs while even swiping a pair of bases. He is leading all rookies in virtually all categories except home runs and slugging percentage, but he also plays in Seattle, a pitchers' park. An older rookie at 26 (he's older than Mike Trout), Haniger's minor league breakout in 2015 is looking more and more sustainable every day.

NL Rookie of the Year: Antonio Senzatela (COL): 3-0, 2.08 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 17/4 K/BB. Last week: Amir Garrett.
Amir Garrett hasn't done anything to lose spot here, but Senzatela has simply been amazing. Apparently, someone forgot to tell the 22 year old out of Venezuela that pitching in Coors Field is difficult, as he has actually posted a better ERA and WHIP in his two home starts (1.93 and 0.71) than in his two road starts (2.25 and 1.00). His most impressive outing came on Saturday in Colorado, as he held Buster Posey and the Giants to just one run on four hits over seven innings in the thin Denver air. He struck out just three, but when you pitch like that, who cares. He has also walked just four batters in 26 innings for a 1.38 walks per nine innings rate that is 14th best in the major leagues. Oh year, and before this season, he had made just seven total starts above High Class A in the minors.

Minor League Watch: Tyler Mahle (CIN AA): 4-0, 0.68 ERA, 0.45 WHIP, 27/5 K/BB for AA Pensacola.
The Reds' seventh round pick out of a California high school in 2013, Mahle has worked his way up prospect charts through the years, with MLB.com rating him the Reds' 10th best prospect and Minor League Ball's John Sickels ranking him 16th before the season. However, both sites may want to reevaluate, as the 6'3" righty has been nothing short of amazing this season at AA Pensacola. Sandwiched between two starts in which he allowed one run over 5.2 and five innings, respectively, was a spectacular performance in Biloxi (Brewers AA) where he allowed just one hit and two walks over seven shutout innings, giving him a 1.02 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP over his first three starts. Then, on Saturday, something amazing happened. Taking the mound in Mobile (Angels AA), Mahle retired all 27 BayBears that he faced to throw the Southern League's first perfect game since 1970, striking out eight. What's even more amazing is that he did it on just 88 pitches. For the season, he now has a 0.68 ERA, a 0.45 WHIP, and a 27/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.2 innings as he has allowed just two runs on seven hits and five walks. The 22 year old looks like a potential number four starter for the Reds in the near future. 

Sunday, April 16, 2017

Tracking Awards: 4/16

If the Season Ended Today (BEWARE SMALL SAMPLE SIZE)

AL MVP: Francisco Lindor (CLE): 4 HR, 8 RBI, .349 AVG, 1 SB, 218 wRC+.
Lindor is off to a torrid start, slashing .349/.431/.721 through 11 games with eight of his fifteen hits going for extra bases. He actually started the season with back to back hitless games, meaning he is slashing .405/.465/.838 with four home runs over his last nine games. His biggest game came on April 5th in Texas, when he blasted two home runs while adding a single and a walk and driving in five runs. Since that game, he's gotten a hit in each game and is showing no signs of slowing down.

NL MVP: Zack Cozart (CIN): 1 HR, 7 RBI, .485 AVG, 1 SB, 250 wRC+.
Across the state of Ohio, the Reds have surprised everybody by starting the season 8-4 through twelve games. They won't keep this pace up, but so far, Zack Cozart has been a huge part of making this team go. Appearing in ten of the twelve games, he is leading the major leagues with a .485 batting average as part of an insane .485/.538/.818 slash line, good for a 250 wRC+, the second highest in baseball behind only Eric Thames' 255. Cozart has picked up a hit in each game this season, and he has gotten on base at least twice in eight of his ten games. He may lack home run power, but he has spread his offense around by knocking ten singles, two doubles, three triples, and one home run, with the three triples being the most in the entire MLB.

AL Cy Young: James Paxton (SEA): 2-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 22/4 K/BB.
It came down to Paxton and Ervin Santana, but Paxton gets the edge due to the quality of competition he has faced. It's not just that he's the only pitcher yet to allow a run, it's who he has done it against. On April 5th, he started in Houston against arguably baseball's deepest offense, the Houston Astros. No worries, as he tossed six shutout innings on two hits and one walk, striking out five. Five days later, he squared up against that same potent Houston offense, and was even better: over seven shutout innings, he allowed just four hits and two walks while striking out eight. Against another strong offense, that of the Texas Rangers, on April 15th, it was more of the same: over eight shutout innings, he gave up just two hits and one walk while striking out nine. Overall, he has struck out 22 batters over 21 innings while allowing just 12 base runners and no runs. Do not underestimate a fully healthy James Paxton.

NL Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard (NYM): 1-0, 0.95 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 20/0 K/BB.
It seemed like he was a top prospect forever, and suddenly, since mid-2015, Noah Syndergaard has been one of the very best starting pitchers in baseball. The flame-throwing right hander has met every lofty expectation so far this season. He is yet to allow a walk in 19 inning this season, with just two runs crossing the plate. He tossed six shutout innings against the Braves on Opening Day, allowing five hits and striking out seven. He followed that up with back to back strong starts against the Marlins, allowing one earned run in each while going seven and six innings, respectively. Overall, he has a 0.95 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a beautiful 20/0 strikeout to walk ratio in 19 innings. Among MLB pitchers with more than 12 innings pitched this season, only he and Felix Hernandez (18.1 IP) are yet to allow a walk. 

AL Rookie of the Year: Mitch Haniger (SEA): 3 HR, 7 RBI, .292 AVG, 2 SB, 173 wRC+.
Mitch Haniger had a huge breakout season in the high minors in 2015, then reached the majors and slashed a respectable, if not spectacular, .229/.309/.404 over 34 games. He retains rookie eligibility in 2017, an he has been excellent through 12 games, slashing .292/.393/.542 with three home runs, three doubles, and even a pair of stolen bases for the Mariners. Known more for his power than for his on-base abilities, he has gotten on base in each of his twelve games this season and is currently riding a nine game hitting streak, over which he is slashing .361/.439/.667.

NL Rookie of the Year: Amir Garrett (CIN): 2-0, 1.42 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 9/2 K/BB.
Zack Cozart hasn't been the only pleasant surprise in Cincinnati this year. Amir Garrett, the former NCAA basketball star over at St. John's, has gained steam as a prospect every year and got his chance out of spring training this year. He had to make his MLB debut against a tough Cardinals lineup in St. Louis, but he dominated them by tossing six shutout innings on two hits and two walks, striking out four. Up against another strong offense, that the Pirates, on April 12th, he allowed two earned runs over 6.2 innings on five hits and no walks, striking out five in Pittsburgh. Overall, he has a 1.42 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP, the latter of which is actually second in the National League to only Clayton Kershaw's 0.70 WHIP. 

2017 Draft Preview: Adam Haseley

CF Adam Haseley (University of Virginia): 6'1", 185 lbs, born 4/12/1996

Overview

Hit: 55. Power: 45. Field: 60. Throw: 60. Run: 55.

In addition to seeing Pavin Smith, I had the opportunity to watch UVA's two-way star Adam Haseley play in a three game set at Virginia Tech. As with so many others coming into this season, scouts were all interested to see whether Haseley would shine more as a hitter or as a pitcher this season. As it turns out, the former is true, and he has shot up draft boards into first round consideration with his all-around style of play. Let's take a look.

Strengths
Haseley has had a multi-faceted breakout season as a hitter this year. As of April 15th, he has vastly improved his on-base percentage (.377 to .503), isolated power (.198 to .302), and strikeout to walk ratio (1.04:1 to 0.46:1) at the same time. Beginning his stance in a slight crouch and with a sizeable leg kick, he generates power from a quick left-handed swing that is more oriented towards line drives right now than it is towards home runs. His stance and load both remind me of a left handed Josh Donaldson, and if he can make the necessary adjustments (see Weaknesses), an offensive profile like Donaldson's isn't all-together out of the question. Like his teammate, Pavin Smith, he is extremely polished at the plate, putting up an excellent 13/28 strikeout to walk ratio (7.6% to 16.5%) and really working his counts to get his pitch. He's not the fastest guy in the world, but he uses his speed well and has stolen 17 bases in 23 attempts (73.9%) so far in his college career. He's a gifted center fielder, displaying great range and a cannon for an arm that also helps him dial up well-located 90 MPH fastballs as a member of the Cavaliers' weekend rotation. Combined with 2018 Draft prospects Jake McCarthy (younger brother of Rays prospect Joe McCarthy) and Cameron Simmons, both terrific fielders in their own rights, not much drops in that UVA outfield. 

Weaknesses
Haseley has a few flaws in his swing mechanics, most notably in his swing angle and in his load. Fortunately, these are most likely fixable. Starting with the load, Haseley seems to be tentative in using it at this point, keeping all of his weight on his back leg while he picks up and places down that front foot. That is not necessarily a bad thing, because it keeps him from leaking power, but at the same time it saps the even greater potential power that can be generated from gaining ground in a stride such as his. His swing, at this point, is line-drive oriented. He swings down on the ball to stay on top, and while this produces its fair share of line drives, it also produces a lot of ground balls and means he will only be able to tap his power consistently if he turns on inside pitches. If he can add more loft to that swing while gaining ground with his load, he's an All Star. 

Saturday, April 15, 2017

2017 Draft Preview: Pavin Smith

1B Pavin Smith (University of Virginia): 6'2", 210 lbs, born 2/6/1996

Overview

Hit: 55. Power: 55. Field: 55. Throw: 50. Run: 35.

Pavin Smith entered the season as a potential first round pick, and he has exceeded expectations this spring. One of the best (if not the best) pure hitters in his draft class, Smith right now has a chance to be drafted in the top ten picks, projecting as a player similar to Adam LaRoche. Let's break down the UVA first baseman.

Strengths
Smith has a hitters' frame at a listed 6'2", 210 pounds from the left side, with long levers to generate plenty of power. Speaking of power, he has shifted his approach this season from more of a contact/line drive approach to a power one, as he is turning on more pitches this year and trying to use his considerable raw power to his advantage. Like most UVA hitters, he is a very polished hitter as well, as his 5/19 strikeout to walk rate (2.9% to 11.2%) so far this season (April 15th) emphasizes. Often, when a player has a big power jump, other components of his hitting suffer. The fact that Pavin has been able to support his big jump in power with better plate discipline and a continued ability to get on base bode very well for his future offensive development. He is also an athletic, slick fielding first baseman, so he's no defensive liability. When I got the chance to watch him play against Virginia Tech, he even robbed a home run while playing left field.

Weaknesses
I watched him play parts of four games (one against Duke, parts of three against Virginia Tech), and not once have I seen him do anything but pull the ball. He was out in front of a lot of pitches, causing him to yank more than a couple sharp line drives and ground balls well foul down the first base line. Combined with the fact that he has worked more on pulling the ball, this makes Smith (at this point) an extreme pull hitter. It is most likely something that can be fixed, but it is something to be mindful of. Smith is also a very slow runner, but with the offensive package he provides, that is okay.

Monday, April 3, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

Major Additions: Taijuan Walker, Fernando Rodney, Daniel Descalso, Chris Iannetta, Jeff Mathis, Ketel Marte
Major Losses: Jean Segura, Welington Castillo, Daniel Hudson, Mitch Haniger
Strengths: Offense
Weaknesses: Bullpen
Potential Breakout Stars: Braden Shipley, Archie Bradley, Jared Miller, Jimmie Sherfy

The Dansby Swanson trade may have been the worst in recent memory, and while it certainly hurts losing a franchise player in return for a decent starter, the major league team isn't quite awful. Paul Goldschmidt, an MVP candidate when healthy, and A.J Pollock, who had a huge 2015 (.315/.367/.498, 39 SB, 131 wRC+) before getting hurt in 2016, will be at the center of the offense. Yasmani Tomas broke out for 31 home runs last season, while Jake Lamb nearly quintupled his career high with 29. Brandon Drury (.282/.329/.458, 102 wRC+) was also a quiet performer last year. In addition to Pollock coming back, David Peralta will be healthy, and the addition of the two could help offset the loss of Jean Segura. Once he comes back from surgery, watch rookie Socrates Brito. On the mound, the hope is that Zack Greinke (4.37 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), Shelby Miller (6.15 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), and Patrick Corbin (5.15 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) will bounce back from their tough seasons, hopefully getting close to their 2015 form (Greinke: 1.66 ERA, 0.84 WHIP. Miller: 3.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP. Corbin: 3.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). Robbie Ray has immense potential, and Beyond the Box Score ran an article last season analyzing Ray's odd combination of high strikeout numbers and high rates of hard hit balls. One of three things could happen: the strikeouts will win out and he'll stop giving up hard contact and turn into a frontline starter, the hard contact will win out and he'll stop striking guys out and fall out of the rotation, or he'll continue on this weird path he's on and continue to be an average starter. Who knows. Lastly, Taijuan Walker is a newcomer, and the 24 year old is hoping this is the year he breaks out into the number two starter he was projected to be. In the case of injury/inefficiency, veteran Jorge De La Rosa or young arms Braden Shipley, Archie Bradley, or Anthony Banda could be called upon to fill the void. 40 year old Fernando Rodney will be the closer, coming off a very odd season. Over 28 appearances with the Padres, he allowed just one run for a spectacular 0.31 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP, but upon being traded to Miami, he put up a 5.89 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP over 39 appearances, ruining his season's line. Andrew Chafin (6.75 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), Tom Wilhelmsen (6.80 ERA, 1.71 WHIP), and J.J. Hoover (13.50 ERA, 2.20 WHIP) will both look to bounce back to their solid 2015 forms, and Arizona will eagerly await Jake Barrett's (3.49 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) return from injury. Highly regarded relief prospects, Jared Miller and Jimmie Sherfy, reached AAA last season and could help out as well. The Diamondbacks will probably finish around .500 this year, but given their completely barren farm system, there isn't much hope for the future.

2017 Season Preview: San Diego Padres

Apologies on this being late. My wifi was down for a majority of the weekend.

Major Additions: Jhoulys Chacin, Trevor Cahill, Jered Weaver, Erick Aybar
Major Losses: Tyson Ross, Derek Norris, Jon Jay, Brandon Morrow, Alexi Amarista
Strengths: Wil Myers is pretty good
Weaknesses: Rotation, Offense
Potential Breakout Stars: Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot, Austin Hedges, Luis Perdomo, Phil Maton

Unfortunately, Padres fans don't have much to look forward to in terms of winning ballgames. Overall, this is probably the worst team in baseball. However, that doesn't mean there won't be anything to watch. Wil Myers had a big breakout season last year (.259/.336/.461, 115 wRC+), bashing 28 home runs and stealing 28 bases when his career highs in those categories were previously 13 and 6, respectively. Yangervis Solarte is also a pretty decent player (.286/.341/.467, 118 wRC+), and after that, it's all young guys. Ryan Schimpf broke out as a 28 year old rookie last season slashed .217/.336/.533, 129 wRC+), showing the makings of a real true-outcome hitter. Last season, 50.6% of his 330 plate appearances ended in one of the three true outcomes (20 home runs, 42 walks, 105 strikeouts), showing big time power, big time plate discipline, and big time swing-and-miss. Travis Jankowski was pretty successful as a rookie, stealing 30 bases if doing nothing else, and Luis Sardinas was pretty good in a limited role. Two rookie hitters you should keep an eye on: Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot. Renfroe has showcased big time power in the minor leagues, blasting 71 home runs over the last three seasons, including 30 in 2016. Reaching the majors at 24 in 2016, he hit everything in site in his short eleven game stint, batting .371 with four home runs and three doubles while striking out just five times in 36 plate appearances (13.9%). He obviously won't put up a 213 wRC+ over a full season, but he could hit 20 home runs with a decent on-base percentage. If he can get even a little more plate discipline (he walked just once – intentionally – in those 36 plate appearances), he could be a dark horse candidate for NL Rookie of the Year. Margot, meanwhile, is known for his speed and ability to put the ball in play, having stolen 162 bases in his five year minor league career while getting on base at a .350 clip. Behind the plate, Austin Hedges will be another interesting player to watch. He has already mastered AAA, slashing .326/.363/583 over 103 career games there, but that has not translated to major league success (.161/.206/.236, 19 wRC+ over 64 games). The 24 year old will get the chance to be the starting catcher this season, and hopefully he can fulfill his big time potential. Unfortunately, the starting rotation is a bit of a train wreck. Jhoulys Chacin will be the ace, coming off a season in which he put up a 4.81 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 34 games (22 starts). Then, there's Clayton Richard and Trevor Cahill, who have combined to start 16 games over the last two seasons (four starts per pitcher per year). Jered Weaver may have made three straight All Star teams from 2010-2012, but his fastball velocity has dipped into the low 80's and his ERA and WHIP have gone up every year since 2011 (2.41 and 1.01 in 2011, 5.06 and 1.46 in 2016). Luis Perdomo rounds out that rotation, coming off a decent-enough rookie season (5.71 ERA, 1.59 WHIP). If things get desperate (which they will), we could see Jarred Cosart or Dinelson Lamet make some starts, or if things get real desperate, 2016 first round pick Eric Lauer could move up through the minor leagues quickly. The bullpen isn't horrible, which is the best thing you can say about this Padres team, with Brandon Maurer (4.52 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), Brad Hand (2.92 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), and Ryan Buchter (2.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) in the back end. They'll also eagerly await the return of Carter Capps, who missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery but was absolutely un-hittable in 30 appearances in 2015 (1.16 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 58 K's in 31 innings). Craig Stammen hasn't been healthy for the past couple of seasons, but he could make an impact if he returns to his 2012-2014 form. Top prospects Jose Torres, Miguel Diaz, and Phil Maton will also look to make their marks. Lastly, we have the most interesting player on the team, if not the most interesting in baseball: super-super utility man Christian Bethancourt. Bethancourt has already played 153 games in the majors, mostly at catcher, but he's also seen time in the outfield, played one inning at second base (2016), and made a pair of relief appearances in blowout games in 2016. This season, he will split time between catcher and pitcher. You've heard of two way college guys (heck, Brendan McKay has a 1.18 ERA and a .417/.532/.679 slash line for the University of Louisville right now), but two way major leaguers? Yeah, we had Rick Ankiel, Micah Owings, Jason Lane, and Brooks Kieschnick do both, but not in a long time have we seen a player do both at once. Best of luck to the 25 year old two-way hopeful.