2021 MLB Draft Review: San Francisco Giants

Full list of draftees

The Giants took nine straight pitchers to begin this draft, looking to balance out a system that right now is headlined mainly by hitters. They started it off with one of my favorite pitchers in the draft class, Will Bednar, then structured the majority of their draft around affording a massive over slot bonus for fourth rounder Eric Silva. Power was the theme here, as their first six picks top out at roughly 97, 98, 100, 97, 97, and 96, respectively, and they also weren't afraid of small conference arms like Fordham's Matt Mikulski, Lehigh's Mason Black, Yale's Rohan Handa, or Maine's Nick Sinacola. Bednar is my favorite pick here for a lot of reasons, but Handa is certainly the most interesting from a backstory perspective.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-14: RHP Will Bednar, Mississippi State. My rank: #11.
The Giants really started out on the right foot by grabbing Will Bednar, the 2021 College World Series MVP. The younger brother of Pirates reliever David Bednar, Will has been nearly untouchable during his two years in Starkville, posting a 2.93 ERA and a 162/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 107.2 innings. He finished it off with three great starts in the CWS, shutting down Texas, Texas again, and Vanderbilt to the tune of 18.1 innings, three runs, just five hits, and 26 strikeouts over the course of eleven days. Bednar has a full arsenal, but he really makes his money with two pitches, a plus fastball and slider. The fastball can touch 96-97 early in his starts before dipping down into the 91-94 range as the game goes on, and it plays up because he puts tremendous ride on the pitch that makes it nearly impossible to catch up to up in the zone. The slider has taken a huge step forward this year, coming in with serious late sweep that helped him rack up all those strikeouts. The Pittsburgh-area native also adds a curveball and changeup, and while they're not known far and wide throughout the SEC like his fastball and slider, they're effective pitches in their own right. His curveball flashes average with vertical break distinct from his slider, while the changeup, when located well, is a useful weapon against left handed hitters. Bednar's command is not pinpoint but he rarely gets himself into trouble over walks, doing a good job of elevating the pitches that need to be elevated and burying the ones that don't. On the to-do list for pro ball is getting better at hitting individual corners. The 6'2" righty doesn't offer much projection but he doesn't need it, with a durable build and a powerful but efficient delivery that should enable him to pitch near the top of a big league rotation. To top it all off, he's a fierce competitor that lives for high pressure games and never shies away from the lights. He signed for $3.65 million, which was roughly $390,000 below slot value, or in other words, fantastic value.

2-50: LHP Matt Mikulski, Fordham. My rank: #46.
Matt Mikulski was eligible for the draft last year, but ultimately his body of work against mediocre competition wasn't impressive enough to earn serious consideration in the five round event. He went back on the grind during the shutdown and emerged in 2021 a completely different picture, putting up video game numbers and thrusting himself into the second round. After holding a 3.98 ERA over his first three seasons, he posted a 1.45 ERA and a 124/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.1 innings, picking up double digit strikeouts in eight of his eleven starts and topping out with sixteen against St. Bonaventure on April 10th. Mikulski wasn't facing the toughest competition up in the Northeast, with eventual #4 seed NJIT (4 IP, 2 ER, 8 K) representing the only NCAA Tournament team, but they were all still Division I hitters and nobody could touch him. The New York native's fastball has ticked more consistently into the low to mid 90's and is now topping out around 98, while his slider flashes above average with sweep and his curveball can be a bit loopy but shows nice depth. He also adds an above average changeup with drop, and together the arsenal was simply too much for his opponents. The 6'4" lefty has smoothed out his delivery considerably and hides the ball well, but it still features some effort and his command likely doesn't project as any better than average. For that reason, plus the fact that he turned 22 in May, there is some reliever risk, but the Giants have been good about developing pitching lately and he has every chance to stick as a #3 or #4 starter. Mikulski signed for $1.2 million, which was roughly $270,000 below slot value.

3-85: RHP Mason Black, Lehigh. My rank: #92.
Returning to the small northeastern private school ranks, the Giants grabbed another power armed pitcher in Mason Black. Black stamped his name into the scouting spotlight in a big way in the Cape Cod League back in 2019, posting a 1.43 ERA and a 39/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.2 innings against elite, mostly older competition. However, he didn't perform as well against Lehigh's weaker Patriot League schedule, carrying a 4.09 ERA and a pedestrian 57/20 strikeout to walk ratio through his first two seasons. Those numbers improved this spring to 3.11 and 95/31 over 72.1 innings, but not quite enough to answer all of scouts' questions. That leaves us with a bit of an enigma that has split the scouting industry, but the Giants were clearly on the bullish side and I'd say I lean that way too. The 6'3" righty has a low to mid 90's fastball that has reached 100 in short stints, though it can get hit when he dips into that 92-94 range. His breaking ball can be slurvy at times, but when it's at its best, it's a plus pitch that can miss a ton of bats. He also adds a changeup that flashes average, but like his other pitches, can be inconsistent. The Scranton-area native is better at throwing strikes than hitting individual spots, and he's not quite as athletic as a guy like Will Bednar. Interestingly, Black is an extremely intelligent kid who studied bioengineering at Lehigh and wanted to go to medical school if baseball didn't work out. Those smarts between the ears, combined with the incredible arm strength necessary to hit triple digits with his fastball, should help him put it all together and pitch at his best with good instruction. I think the Giants could have a #3 starter or better on their hands in that case but it will take work. He signed right at slot value for $710,700.

4-115: RHP Eric Silva, JSerra Catholic HS. My rank: #142.
After saving roughly a combined $660,000 over their first three picks, the Giants spent it here on a West Coast prep arm. Eric Silva is an interesting arm because he doesn't quite fall into any clear category. He's a power arm, but he's not quite overpowering yet, and he also shows good feel for pitching, but isn't a command artist. Some would see that profile and label him a tweener/long relief option, while others such as the Giants see an opportunity to put everything together and build a mid-rotation starter. The Orange County native sits in the low 90's with his fastball, reportedly reaching back for as much as 97 this spring but also dipping closer to 90 as the season wore on. He throws a distinct upper 70's slider and mid 70's curveball with great shape and finish, though both pitches need to add power to be true bat missing weapons. Given his fastball velocity, it's not hard to envision him doing so in the Giants' development system. He also throws a changeup that can be inconsistent but flashes nice fade. The 6'1" righty has a durable look and while there are some moving parts in his delivery such as a wide leg kick, he repeats it well for the most part and is generally around the strike zone. A couple of tweaks should get him to at least average command. Silva was one of the few high-end UCLA commits to sign, earning the Giants' second largest bonus at $1.5 million, roughly a million dollars above slot value. 

5-146: LHP Rohan Handa, Yale. Unranked.
Here's a cinderella story if there ever was one. The son of Indian immigrants, Rohan Handa stepped onto campus at Yale nowhere in the vicinity of a being pro prospect. He spent two years in the Bulldogs bullpen to uninspiring results, posting a 5.97 ERA and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings and failing to stand out even on a pitching staff that wasn't exactly a scouting destination anyways. His shutdown ended up being longer than most, as the Ivy League cancelled their spring sports so as to keep healthy, young, set-to-be-vaccinated athletes from appearing on the same outdoor field, and boy did he take advantage of it. When Handa appeared back on the mound late in workouts and in the NECL this spring, he was a completely different pitcher. The fastball now sits in the low to mid 90's and has touched 97, while he flashes a plus slider with late break that still could use to get more consistent. The 6'3" lefty also throws a changeup, but it's his third pitch and remains unproven. Handa has a high effort delivery and doesn't always provide consistent strikes, which likely points to a career in the bullpen given his lack of a reliable changeup, but the man is trending straight upwards and who is to say he doesn't continue to improve in the Giants' development system? The Charlotte-area native, like third rounder Mason Black, is an extremely intelligent kid (obviously, he's at Yale) and heavily involved in philanthropy already. He signed for $347,500, which was $24,100 below slot value.

6-176: LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio State. My rank: #144.
In stark contrast to Rohan Handa, Seth Lonsway has been on the scouting radar for a long time. He had Midwest area scouts making regular trips to western Ohio to see him pitch as a high schooler back in 2017, but ultimately priced himself out and ended up at Ohio State. After redshirting his freshman season in 2018, he showed some of the loudest stuff in the Big Ten over the next two seasons and had a chance to go in the top three rounds in 2020, but again opted to head back for a fourth year. Unfortunately, the same questions that held him back from 2019-2020 were present in 2021, and he fell to the sixth round after posting a 4.37 ERA and a 98/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings. The stuff is still loud for sure. The 6'3" lefty pummels hitters with a low to mid 90's fastball that regularly gets up to 95-96, exploding out of his hand and showing great ride from his overhand delivery. Lonsway also throws an absolute hammer of a curveball and misses bats with a plus slider as well, while his changeup is more of a fourth pitch. The drawback has been command, as he walked 14.2% of his opponents in 2019, 21.7% in the shortened 2020 season, and then 14.5% this year. He regularly loses his release point and at this point you have to figure he simply does not have any feel to spot his pitches. Set to turn 23 in October, hope for Lonsway to stick in the rotation is receding fast and at this point, he's probably better off just going straight to the bullpen and seeing what happens. There, he won't have to focus so much on location and can instead just grip it, rip it, and see what happens, with the end result likely being simply overpowering stuff even at the major league level. You can see the Celina, Ohio native giving fans a heart attack with a propensity to get himself into trouble, then working out of it by striking out the side. He signed for $300,000, which was $18,200 above slot value.

7-206: RHP Nick Sinacola, Maine. Unranked.
Going back to a small conference northeastern school yet again, the Giants grabbed another one of the best pitchers in the region in Nick Sinacola. Like Matt Mikulski, he was untouchable this spring, posting a 2.04 ERA and a 139/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, and also like Mikulski, NJIT was the only tournament-bound team that he faced (5 IP, 2 ER, 10 K). Sinacola is far from overpowering, sitting around 90 with his fastball and only topping out around 92-93, but that's not his money pitch anyways. The 6'1" righty mainly pitches off his sweepy slider, which again doesn't have a ton of power around 80 but still misses bats because he rarely misses his spot with it. He also flips in an average splitter. Everything Sinacola throws plays up because he repeats his delivery well and shows above average command, and that was enough to completely keep northeastern mid major bats off balance. In pro ball, however, he might not be able to sneak that slider by as many bats, and the bullpen might be a better spot for him. There, the southern Massachusetts native could see both his fastball and slider tick up a bit in velocity, which with his command would be hugely beneficial. He signed for $197,500, which was $23,700 below slot value.

8-236: RHP Ian Villers, California. Unranked.
Ian Villers is a hometown pick, having attended Northgate High School across the Bay in Walnut Creek before going on to spend three years at Cal. He struggled with command and ran a 20/19 strikeout to walk ratio over his first two seasons, but emerged as a valuable swingman this year with a 2.84 ERA and a 36/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 innings. Villers has plenty of arm strength and can reach back for 96-97 when he wants it, but he's more comfortable down in the low 90's where he's been able to take that step forward with his command. Like Nick Sinacola, he often pitches off his slider, which flashes above average and comes in with more power than his seventh round counterpart. The big 6'6" righty also mixes in a curveball, changeup, splitter, and cutter, which all have their moments but remain behind the fastball/slider. He repeats his delivery well and has done a better job of filling up the strike zone, though I'm not huge on college relievers and he won't get the luxury of seeing his stuff jump when he moves from the rotation to the bullpen since he's already there, but playing into Villers' favor is the fact that he's extremely young for the class and doesn't turn 21 until September. There is the chance that the Giants could try to work him back into the rotation, where he does have the size, arm strength, command, and arsenal to profile as a #4 or #5 guy. The age certainly doesn't hurt that. Villers signed for $217,500, which was $41,200 above slot value.

9-266: RHP Mat Olsen, Central Arizona JC. Unranked.
With Matt Olson hitting home runs across the Bay, I guess the Giants wanted in on the action and drafted their own Mat Olsen, though this one is a pitcher. Hailing from the small town of Florence between Phoenix and Tucson, he stayed close to home at Central Arizona JC and has been exceptional over the last two seasons, combining for a 2.09 ERA and a 194/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 innings. Olsen shows a low 90's fastball that has been popping the mid 90's more and more often, getting up to 96 this year, and he throws a solid-average curveball with conviction that helps him rack up the strikeouts. He adds in a slider and changeup but mainly pitches off the fastball and curveball, with his four pitch mix giving him a chance to start at the next level. Though he has a relatively high effort delivery, the 5'11" righty can still pour in strikes as he goes right after hitters and understands the art of pitching. Area scouts love him for that, and if he's forced to the bullpen regardless, he has the competitive mentality you look for in a reliever. He's also young, having just turned 21 three days before the draft. Rather than fulfill an Arizona State commitment, Olsen signed for $147,500, which was $7,800 below slot.

2021 MLB Draft: A Hometown Pick for Each AL/NL East Team

I'm personally just as interested in maps as I am in the MLB Draft, so naturally I really like it when players go to their hometown team. Seeing Ryan Zimmerman (Virginia Beach, VA) on the Nationals, Justin Turner (Lakewood, CA) on the Dodgers, Joe Musgrove (La Mesa, CA) on the Padres, etc. makes me happy. Last year, the Cubs drafted Chicago native Ed Howard in the first round, which I thought was really cool. Obviously, picking the hometown guy usually plays a negligible part in the selection process, but it's still fun to think about. So, if teams were drafting to make me happy, what hometown players could they target early in the draft? Note, I'll usually think in terms of the first pick if possible, but if necessary I'll find targets for the second or third pick (especially in the "other options" section). I'll be writing three articles on this, starting with the AL and NL East (Central can be found here and West can be found here). Note this is NOT a mock draft – it's just for fun and I don't actually think many of these will happen. They're just fun to think about. 

Atlanta Braves: C Harry Ford, North Cobb HS, Kennesaw, GA
Let's be honest, the Braves will never, ever, ever have trouble finding players in their own backyard. The Atlanta area is one of the top metros for baseball talent in the entire country, and without another team within 350 miles, much of the entire South can be considered "Braves country." I elected to go with North Cobb star Harry Ford at pick #24, who goes to school just 15 miles northwest of Truist Park in Kennesaw. He's an ultra-athletic catcher, something you don't hear often. Ford shows the potential for plus raw power from the right side, a product of the tremendous torque in his swing despite a smaller 5'10" frame. He also shows strong hitting ability, and at peak could be one of the better hitting catchers in the country. With plus speed, he could also play second base or center field. He will have the ability to stick back behind the plate if his drafting team chooses to keep him back there with his cat-like agility. Committed to Georgia Tech, he's an ATL lifer.
Other options: RHP Jonathan Cannon (Georgia via Alpharetta, GA), LHP Ryan Webb (Georgia via Roswell, GA), RHP Bubba Chandler (North Oconee HS, Bogart, GA), SS Ryan Bliss (Auburn via LaGrange, GA), SS Michael Braswell (Campbell HS, Smyrna, GA)

Baltimore Orioles: OF James Wood, IMG Academy, FL (hometown: Olney, MD)
The Orioles pick at fifth overall, which might be just a little rich for James Wood at this point, but last year they under-slotted Heston Kjerstad overall and Wood could be an under-slot candidate at pick #5. Though he attends the IMG Academy outside of Tampa, Florida, Wood grew up in Olney about 25 miles southwest of Camden Yards. He brings absolutely tremendous raw power from the left side, a product of his 6'6" frame, brute strength, quick hands, and great leverage. Not just a pure bruiser, he brings strong feel for the barrel as well with a patient approach and a good eye at the plate. He runs very well for his size and should be an asset in right field. Once he reaches Camden, you could see him peppering Eutaw Street with plenty of home runs. He is committed to Mississippi State.
Other options: LHP Mason Albright (IMG Academy, FL via Thurmont, MD), SS Jose Torres (NC State via Baltimore, MD), 3B Zack Gelof (Virginia via Lewes, DE), LHP Peter Heubeck (Gilman HS, Baltimore, MD), 1B Maxwell Costes (Maryland via Baltimore, MD)

Boston Red Sox: OF Sal Frelick, Boston College (hometown: Lexington, MA)
In most years, this would be a difficult exercise, and I'd be looking for a second or third rounder to give the Red Sox. In this case, we have numerous options, though I did have to stretch a bit to get them a New Englander at pick #4. Sal Frelick probably fits better about five to ten picks later, but the Red Sox did under-slot Nick Yorke last year so this wouldn't be entirely out of the question. Frelick isn't a big guy at a listed 5'9", but his game is as loud as it gets. He shows a plus hit tool that enables him to not only make extremely consistent contact in the zone, but also easily spoil and even put in play bad pitches outside the zone. When he does connect, the Lexington native shows real power that should be at least average in pro ball. He's also a plus runner with a solid arm, and he plays the game with plenty of energy. Also noted as one of the best athletes in the class, he can handle center field or even second base if necessary. It's really a down year for college bats, so Frelick's strong 2021 production has pushed him near the very top of the list.
Other options: 2B Cody Morissette (Boston College via Exeter, NH), OF Joshua Baez (Dexter-Southfield HS, Brookline, MA), RHP Sean Burke (Maryland via Sutton, MA), LHP Steven Hajjar (Michigan via North Andover, MA), RHP Mike Vasil (Virginia via Wellesley, MA)

Miami Marlins: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami (hometown: Miami, FL)
Honestly, Adrian Del Castillo probably profiles much better with an AL team with a DH, but the DH is (hopefully) coming to the NL soon so we can give him to the Marlins at the sixteenth pick. Del Castillo is a Miami lifer who attended Gulliver Prep HS before heading a few blocks down Dixie Highway to The U, where he has blossomed into one of the best college bats in the country. Standing 5'11", he has elite feel for the strike zone and the barrel with possibly the most pro-ready bat in the class, just feasting on high-level ACC pitching throughout his career. He also packs a punch from the left side, showing at least average power if not above average, though to this point it's been just a little underwhelming in 2021. Del Castillo has the feel to catch and has worked hard to stick back there, but to this point, he lacks the athleticism or arm strength to be more than a fringy defender back there. If he has to move off the position, he's a little short for first base and a little slow for the outfield, hence why he looks better for a team with a DH.
Other options: RHP Andrew Painter (Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, FL), RHP Irving Carter (Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, FL), C Rene Lastres (Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, FL), OF Jay Allen (John Carroll Catholic HS, Fort Pierce, FL), OF Isaiah Thomas (Vanderbilt via Palm Beach Gardens, FL)

New York Mets/Yankees
Hitter: C Henry Davis, Louisville (hometown: Bedford, NY)
Rather than try to divvy up New York and New Jersey between Yankees and Mets country, we're just going to do them together giving a hitter and a pitcher. Henry Davis certainly won't be around when the Yankees pick at #20, and heck, the Mets would probably be ecstatic if he lasted until the tenth pick for them. It's an unlikely scenario, but we can dream, right? At Louisville, Davis has turned himself into arguably the top college bat in the class, absolutely tearing through ACC pitching as a sophomore (.372/.481/.698) and even moreso as a junior, where he's currently flirting with a .400 batting average and a .500 on-base percentage with plenty of power to boot. A product of Fox Lane High School in northern Westchester County, he shows plus raw power to go with a plus hit tool from the right side, which in layman's terms means he will be a middle-of-the-order threat in the big leagues. It's a simple, leveraged swing from a crouched stance in which he explodes out to the ball, yet remains completely under control with elite feel for the barrel. On defense, he possesses a cannon arm that can completely shut down the running game, while his glove is probably his only unremarkable tool (speed aside) at merely average. I don't expect him to be around for the Mets at pick #10.
Other options: C Joe Mack (Williamsville East HS, Williamsville, NY), SS Danny Serretti (UNC via Berkeley Heights, NJ), C Pat Winkel (Connecticut via Orange, CT)
Pitcher: LHP Matt Mikulski, Fordham (hometown: Mohegan Lake, NY)
If Henry Davis is unlikely to reach the Mets at pick #10, then Jack Leiter (Summit, NJ) is downright impossible. We could have talked Chase Petty (Linwood, NJ) here, but that's a little bit too far south to call it a "hometown" pick. For that reason, we'll go a little deeper and throw out the possibility of Matt Mikulski, a rising arm for Fordham. Mikulski actually grew up in the same area as Davis in northern Westchester County, though instead of leaving the region entirely for college, he stayed close to home and came down I-87 to Fordham. There, he steadily raised his stock for three years before exploding as a senior this year, absolutely blowing away A-10 competition to rocket himself into Day One consideration. He likely won't be in play for either the Mets or Yankees in the first round, but if the Mets or Yankees want to save some money at pick #46 or #55, respectively, he could be their guy. Mikulski is a 6'2" lefty who has seen everything tick up half a grade this year, with his fastball jumping up into the upper 90's at times and settling in the mid 90's for innings at a time. His curveball and slider are both out pitches at their best, and he does add a changeup as well. The command has steadily improved from below average to solid average, which makes scouts much more confident he'll be a starter at the next level. The Mohegan Lake native's stock has a ton of helium right now, and a few weeks from now, the second round could look much more likely than the third.
Other options: RHP Shane Panzini (Red Bank Catholic HS, Red Bank, NJ), RHP Jacob Steinmetz (Elev8 Academy, FL via Woodmere, NY), RHP Pierce Coppola (Verona HS, Verona, NJ), RHP Chase Petty (Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, NJ), LHP Justin Fall (Arizona State via Toms River, NJ)

Philadelphia Phillies: OF Benny Montgomery, Red Land HS, Lewisberry, PA
Eastern Pennsylvania/Southern New Jersey has one of its best crops of talent in a long time, so there are numerous local players who could end up in red Philly pinstripes either at pick #13, #49, or #84. We'll look at Harrisburg-area high schooler Benny Montgomery, who brings some of the loudest tools in the prep class. Montgomery brings huge raw power from the right side, producing elite exit velocities that make scouts sit up. Additionally, his plus-plus speed makes him an asset on both sides of the ball, and a plus arm as well could help him win some Gold Gloves in the outfield with a little refinement. For now, the hit tool is a little iffy, as Montgomery has a choppy right handed swing that he has been working to smooth out. Scouts are less worried because he's a cold weather bat, meaning he's had fewer reps to smooth himself out, and his work ethic is universally praised. Committed to Virginia, he should be expensive, but at pick #13 he might not require an above slot bonus.
Other options: OF Lonnie White Jr. (Malvern Prep HS, Malvern, PA), RHP Chase Petty (Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, NJ), RHP Michael Morales (East Pennsboro HS, Enola, PA), RHP Mason Black (Lehigh via Archbald, PA), LHP Anthony Solometo (Bishop Eustace HS, Pennsauken, NJ)

Tampa Bay Rays: C Luca Tresh, NC State (hometown: Safety Harbor, FL)
There are some other local first round prospects in Mississippi's Gunnar Hoglund (Hudson, FL) and Florida's Jud Fabian (Ocala, FL) and Tommy Mace (Lutz, FL), but I don't think either of the first two reach Tampa Bay at pick #28 and Mace doesn't seem to fit the Rays' draft strategy. We'll go with an NC State product here in Luca Tresh, but he's local. Tresh grew up in Safety Harbor and attended Clearwater Central Catholic, so he's a Pinellas County kid who could join Shane McClanahan (Cape Coral, FL) and Mike Zunino (also Cape Coral) as local products on the Rays. Tresh is a power hitting catcher who was in first round pick Patrick Bailey's shadow last year, but really hit his stride in fall practice this year and came out swinging – in his first eight games, half of which came against Georgia Tech and Miami, he hit .469 with more home runs (seven) than strikeouts (six). Though Tresh has come back down to Earth a little since then, he remains one of the top college catchers on the board in a pretty strong class in that regard. Any time you have a college catcher with legitimate power that he can get to consistently in games, you already have something fairly unique, and Tresh's glove is improving steadily as well. With a strong arm to boot, he's quickly becoming an extremely well rounded asset and should go off the board in the vicinity of that 28th pick.
Other options: OF Jud Fabian (Florida via Ocala, FL), RHP Tommy Mace (Florida via Lutz, FL), OF Robby Martin (Florida State via Tampa, FL), LHP Jac Caglianone (Plant HS, Tampa, FL), OF Ty Evans (Lakeland Christian HS, Lakeland, FL)

Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Eric Cerantola, Mississippi State (hometown: Oakville, ON)
Canada can be very hit-and-miss, and this year, there isn't much in terms of Canadian talent at the top of the draft. Mississippi State righty Eric Cerantola is one of the only Day One prospects from north of the border, but he's definitely an interesting one that should go off the board somewhere in the second round range, possibly early third round. The Blue Jays don't pick between #'s 19 and 91, so I don't really see them having a crack at him unless bonus demands push him down, but anything can happen in the draft. Cerantola is a big righty coming in at 6'5", and his hockey background makes his mound presence that much more imposing. Right now, the stuff is the calling card, with the Oakville native bringing a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch the upper 90's in relief, a true plus curveball that might be the best in the draft when it's on, and an above average changeup. However, the pitchability traits are still catching up to the stuff, as he has little feel for the strike zone and seems to be "aiming" his pitches rather than truly commanding them. That leads to significant relief risk that will make him a serious stretch at pick #19, though the stuff is so loud that I really don't see him being available at #91 regardless. Cerantola attended Ecole Secondaire Catholique Sainte-Trinite for high school.
Other options: 2B Tyler Black (Wright State via Toronto, ON), RHP Ben Abram (Oklahoma via Georgetown, ON), C Joe Mack (Williamsville East HS, Williamsville, NY), RHP Calvin Ziegler (TNXL Academy, FL via Heidelberg, ON), RHP Cedric De Grandpre (Chipola CC via St. Simon, QC)

Washington Nationals: LHP Brandon Clarke, Independence HS, Ashburn, VA
Northern Virginia has produced its fair share of draft talent recently, even if it hasn't been the most exciting crop. J.B. Bukauskas, Tommy Doyle, Khalil Lee, and Joe Rizzo make up the most recent names, while the next could be lefty Brandon Clarke. Clarke, hailing from the same hometown as Bukauskas but a different high school, has been rising this spring after returning healthy from Tommy John surgery. His fastball has gained a tick and now sits in the low to mid 90's, getting up to 96-97, while his breaking ball and changeup have gotten good reviews as well. It's a really loose delivery from a projectable 6'4" frame, so all signs point to him continuing to grow into his game and keep bringing those starter traits along. To this point, I haven't been able to find video of him since returning from that surgery, but the Nationals are never one to shy away from prep arms and he could be in play at the 47th pick or the 82nd pick if he falls due to signability away from an Alabama commitment.
Other options: OF James Wood (IMG Academy, FL via Olney, MD), LHP Andrew Abbott (Virginia via Republican Grove, VA), 1B Wes Clarke (South Carolina via Lynchburg, VA), SS Ethan Murray (Duke via Crozet, VA), 3B Zack Gelof (Virginia via Lewes, DE)

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the low-mid major conferences (east)

 Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on January 1st.

We’ve completed the Power Five conferences, so now it’s time to move into some low-mid major schools. There are plenty of powerhouse programs in the east that don’t fall into the ACC, SEC, or Big Ten, including a Coastal Carolina team that won the College World Series in 2016. Some of MLB’s brightest stars came from these smaller eastern conferences, including Justin Verlander (Old Dominion), Jacob deGrom (Stetson), Corey Kluber (Stetson), Kyle Hendricks (Dartmouth), George Springer (Connecticut), and Kyle Lewis (Mercer), among many many others. Here we find a ton of interesting arms, including quite a few with first round aspirations, as well as a group of bats driven by big raw power.

1. OF Ethan Wilson, South Alabama

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’2″, 210 lbs. Born 11/7/1999. Hometown: Andalusia, AL
2019-2020: 20 HR, .330/.425/.632, 12 SB, 65/40 K/BB in 74 games.

In 2018, South Alabama outfielder Travis Swaggerty closed out an exceptional Jaguars career with a tenth overall selection to the Pirates. Three years later, Ethan Wilson has a chance to match him. The Andalusia native burst onto the scene with a massive freshman season in 2019, slashing .345/.453/.686 with 17 home runs and a 45/36 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games, but dropped to a more pedestrian .282/.329/.465 with three home runs and a 20/4 K/BB in the shortened 2020 season. In a class that’s shallow on college bats, Wilson is a proven commodity with some of the best in-season track record around.

Wilson is a hitter, no question about it. He produces plus raw and game power with an explosive, leveraged, and controlled left handed swing that has no problem catching up to velocity. He shows great feel for the barrel and has never actually struggled at any point in his career. To this point, he has shown some swing and miss against offspeed stuff, but scouts aren’t all that worried. As a mediocre defender who will likely end up in left field, his bat will have to carry him and few doubt that it will.

Given Wilson’s lack of defensive value, scouts need to see him continue to produce in 2021. The Sun Belt has plenty of talent, but it’s not the SEC or ACC and without ever having appeared in a major summer wood bat league, he’s fairly unproven against great pitching. Given his high swing and miss rates against offspeed stuff, that’s slightly concerning, but he can answer all those questions against South Alabama’s non-conference slate in 2021 or against schools like Coastal Carolina and Louisiana in conference play. Given that he won’t require much swing change in pro ball, he can also focus on that aspect of his game heavily once in there. Overall, it’s easy to envision a true impact hitter with 25+ home run potential and good on-base percentages, one that fits firmly in the first round.

2. RHP Sam Bachman, Miami (OH)

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 235 lbs. Born 9/30/1999. Hometown: Fishers, IN

2019-2020: 8-3, 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 106/45 K/BB in 99.1 IP.

Southern Ohio is filled with interesting mid-major arms, but none is more interesting nor a better prospect at this point than Sam Bachman. He was solid as a freshman (3.93 ERA, 75/39 K/BB), then after getting shelled by Texas A&M to open 2020, he had a 1.71 ERA and a 28/2 K/BB across the next 21 innings to close out the season. Bachman was a solid Day One prospect at that point, but he’s had one of the loudest falls in the country and has rocketed into the first round conversation.

Bachman is unique if nothing else. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and tops out around 96 in games, but he’s been up to 99 in fall practice and his pitch data is astounding. After some stabbing motion in the back, he crouches down in his delivery and releases the ball from sidearm height despite throwing from a three quarters slot, putting absolutely tremendous ride and carry on the pitch. It’s one of the most unique fastballs in the class and is extremely difficult to square up. After that, he adds a short slider that almost functions more like a cutter, a pitch that’s above average now but could get to plus with more refinement. His changeup looks like an above average pitch as well with nice running action to the arm side.

So far, the Indianapolis-area native hasn’t gotten much in terms of big results, but as he continues to optimize his stuff, he could get there in 2021. Bachman’s command has improved from 45 in 2019 to 50 in 2020 to 55 in fall practice, and if he can stay in that above average range over a full season, he could push way up boards. His fastball, slider, and changeup all play off each other extremely well, with the unique arm slot making them very difficult to tell apart. As he refines his command, that will only get tougher. Otherwise, continued refinement of his slider is on the docket for 2021, as he could get even more effective by learning to add and subtract depth to what’s currently a pretty short breaker.

3. RHP Mason Black, Lehigh

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 210 lbs. Born 12/10/1999. Hometown: Archbald, PA

2019-2020: 4-2, 4.09 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 57/20 K/BB in 55 IP.

The best college arm in the Northeast is not at a traditional power like Maryland, Boston College, UConn, or Bryant. Rather, Lehigh’s Mason Black has used two exceptional summers to rocket himself into the first round conversation. His numbers against Lehigh’s weaker schedule have been decent (4.09 ERA, 57/20 K/BB), but he really broke out in the Cape Cod League in 2019 with a 1.43 ERA and a 39/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.2 innings as a rising sophomore. He backed that up with another fantastic run through the South Florida Collegiate League in 2020, with a 0.64 ERA, just a 0.71 WHIP, and a 42/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 innings.

Black hasn’t quite gotten it done in the Patriot League, but there’s every reason to believe he will in 2021. His three pitch arsenal is highlighted by a low to mid 90’s fastball that has peaked at 97-99 in short stints, playing up further because he gets good extension and downward plane on it. His breaking ball can fluctuate between a slider and a curveball, but it’s best when it’s more of a true slider and flashes plus potential. Lastly, his changeup is advanced as well, showing nice vertical drop and giving him a third swing and miss offering. Together with solid-average command, Black can dominate anybody at his best.

In 2021, Black will have to put up better numbers in the Patriot League. His loud summers have him firmly in the first round, but to stay there, he can’t have a third consecutive “solid” college season against mediocre competition. He needs to mow his opponents down. His inconsistency does create some reliever risk, but with a long 6’3″ frame, three potential plus pitches, and good-enough command, he has every chance to not only start, but pitch near the top of a rotation. A smart kid as well, the Scranton-area native is majoring in bioengineering and has floated the idea of medical school if baseball doesn’t work out.

4. C Hunter Goodman, Memphis

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 210 lbs. Born 10/8/1999. Hometown: Arlington, TN

2019-2020: 21 HR, .333/.378/.612, 13 SB, 71/14 K/BB in 72 games.

Hunter Goodman gets a tough draw coming in fourth on this list, getting stuck behind an offensive stud and a couple of electric arms. Still, we’re talking about a very exciting profile here. Goodman has absolutely raked at Memphis, slashing .333/.378/.612 with 21 home runs in 72 games, including eight in sixteen games in 2020. He also showed well in the Cape Cod League in 2019, where he hit .272/.287/.487 with eight home runs in 44 games. From a catcher, that’s a track record of in-game power that you’ll take eleven times out of ten, but we do have some questions.

Any conversation around Goodman begins with his power. He shows plus to even plus-plus raw power in his 6’1″ frame, and to this point, that has played up to true plus power in games as well. He has a smooth, leveraged right handed swing that makes the ball jump off his bat, though in games he can stray away from it time to time and get choppy. The hit tool is more of a question. He has struck out in north of 20% of his plate appearances in college, and on the Cape, it was up to 27.5%. The Memphis-area native is also a very aggressive hitter that rarely walks, just 4.2% at Memphis and 1.8% (!) on the Cape. It says a lot about Goodman’s feel for the barrel that he’s produced like he’s had with such a hyper-aggressive approach, even on the Cape, but it still has to worry you a bit for pro ball.

Defensively, there are more questions. Nobody questions his cannon arm that can shut down the running game when he’s accurate, and that alone gives him every chance to stick back there. The glove is still a work in progress, as he’s not the most athletic back there and lacks overall feel for the position. If Goodman can stick behind the plate, his bat is very, very attractive in the first round, but if he’s forced to first base or the outfield, the offensive bar rises. An optimist might look at Goodman’s power and see Joey Bart, who made strides with his plate discipline and defense as a junior and went second overall out of Georgia Tech in 2018. Meanwhile, a pessimist might worry about his defense and ability to get to his power and see more of Bart’s teammate, Kyle McCann, who was a much more patient (and left handed) hitter than Goodman and went in the fourth round a year later.

5. RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’6″, 255 lbs. Born 7/26/1999. Hometown: Fayetteville, NC

2018-2020: 1-4, 3.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 70/32 K/BB in 68 IP.

I’ve written a lot of words about Gavin Williams over the years. He was one of the most projectable high school arms in the country coming out of Fayetteville, North Carolina back in 2017, but headed just up the road to East Carolina instead. There, he’s added a few ticks to his fastball as promised, but has never quite put it together with a 3.57 ERA and a 70/32 strikeout to walk ratio across 68 innings, missing time with various injuries including a finger issue that limited him to three innings in 2020. He went undrafted that year, instead choosing to price himself out and bet on his natural ability.

Williams a skinny 6’5″ string bean coming out of high school, and four years later he’s listed at 6’6″, 255 pounds. He’s a big man with a big fastball to match, sitting in the low to mid 90’s with minimal effort and consistently hitting the upper 90’s. When he does reach back, he’s hit 101 in the past. That fastball comes with an above average changeup with great sink and fade, coming in with mid 80’s velocity. His curveball brings great depth, but with mid 70’s velocity that could stand to add a tick or two. His control is actually solid average, but has been inconsistent throughout his career.

Some evaluators, myself included, look at the big 6’6″ right hander and think he just needs more consistent innings. If he can stay on the mound for longer stretches at a time, I could see more consistent command and perhaps some added power on his breaking ball, but he threw just 15.2, 49.1, and 3 innings, respectively, in his three years in Greenville. At this point, it’s probably safer to project him as a reliever and let his stuff tick up from there, but I haven’t given up on him as a starter. I wouldn’t bank on it if I drafted him, but it could happen with three big league pitches and the building blocks for solid command. With a July birthday, he was young for his class last year and isn’t much older than many first-time eligible players.

6. LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati

Bat: R. Throw: L. 6′, 175 lbs. Born 9/11/1999. Hometown: Amherst, OH

2019-2020: 5-8, 5.66 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 104/57 K/BB in 84.1 IP.

Sam Bachman isn’t the only fast-rising mid major arm in Southwest Ohio. Cincinnati’s Evan Shawver’s stock isn’t rocketing at warp speed like Bachman’s, but the more evaluators see of him, the more they like. He was very inconsistent as a freshman, putting up a 7.15 ERA and a 69/48 strikeout to walk ratio in 61.2 innings, but looked much sharper in the shortened 2020 season: 1.59 ERA, 35/9 K/BB in 22.2 IP. Between his freshman season/short Cape run and his sophomore season/junior fall, the Cleveland-area native has dramatically reduced the baserunners around him both by limiting walks and avoiding barrels. In 2021, he’ll have a full season to show that he’s for real and here to stay.

Shawver starts with a low 90’s fastball that tops out around 97. He throws two secondaries in a slider and a changeup, both of which could be above average to plus pitches. His slider is extremely difficult to pick up out of his hand with late diving action, routinely running under right handed hitters’ hands or disappearing away from lefties. The changeup itself brings late fade, and it too is tough to pick up. Shawver had problems finding the strike zone at times as a freshman, but he dropped his walk rate from 16.6% in 2019 to 10.2% in 2020 while simultaneously cutting his opponents’ batting average nearly in half from .234 to .128.

In 2021, scouts want to see that his transition from fringy to solid average command can hold up over a full season. He’s not the biggest guy in the world, listed at a skinny six feet tall, and needs to continue to prove his durability as well, though it hasn’t been an issue yet. With three pitches that can grade out as 55 or better in addition to improving command, he has a chance to overtake Kansas State’s Jordan Wicks as the top lefty college arm in the class.

7. LHP Drake Batcho, Cincinnati

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’4″, 215 lbs. Born 4/17/2000. Hometown: Warren, OH

2019-2020: 3-5, 6.89 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, 53/55 K/BB in 49.2 IP.

It’s not just Sam Bachman and Evan Shawver ready to break out in Southwest Ohio. Shawver’s teammate, Drake Batcho, is a very different prospect but comes with perhaps more upside. He arrived on campus a very raw product, and it showed; as a freshman, he ran up a 9.27 ERA and an ugly 29/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 33 innings, looking like a complete liability on the mound. He refined his stuff and command somewhat as a sophomore, and the results were considerably better: 2.16 ERA, 24/16 K/BB in 16.2 innings. Heading into 2021, if he keeps trending in this direction, he could find himself a Day One selection.

At this point, evaluators are honed in on Batcho for one big reason, and that’s his fastball. It’s a true plus pitch that sits in the low 90’s from the left side, playing up due to elite extension from a 6’4″ frame that makes it look like he’s releasing the ball right in front of your face. He also throws a slider, curveball, and changeup, though none is a finished product. Further refinement there will be critical for his ability to stick as a starter, as is the case with his command. Batcho’s command is presently a 40 at best, with a 21.7% walk rate for his career, another big problem.

Any team drafting Batcho needs to understand they might be getting a reliever. Presently, he has the fastball, frame, and durability to start, but he’ll need significant improvement in at least one if not two of his offspeed pitches to stick, as well as in his command. The good news is he’s young, as he was still just 19 years old when the season shut down in March. Given the true plus fastball, if he can refine even one of his offspeed pitches and get to 45 command this year, he’s a Day One prospect with a real shot at the rotation. If he doesn’t, his fastball will play extremely well out of the bullpen and he can pick one secondary pitch to work on.

8. OF Parker Chavers, Coastal Carolina

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’11”, 190 lbs. Born 7/25/1998. Hometown: Montgomery, AL

2018-2019: 22 HR, .319/.435/.554, 19 SB, 101/78 K/BB in 119 games.

The top undrafted college position player in 2020, Parker Chavers already has plenty of track record. He raked to the tune of a .319/.435/.554 line with 22 home runs and 19 stolen bases over his first two seasons at Coastal Carolina, then showed well in the Cape Cod League with a .274/.354/.478 line and seven home runs in 44 games in 2019. Shoulder problems kept him out of the shortened 2020 season, so evaluators were not willing to meet his asking price and he went undrafted. Already relatively old for the 2020 class, he’ll turn 23 shortly after the 2021 draft.

Chavers is a proverbial toolbox with an exciting combination of power, speed, and track record. Despite only standing 5’11”, he produces above average raw power that he gets to consistently in games, a product of raw strength and athleticism in addition to feel for the barrel. He also brings plus speed to the table, enabling him to stick in center field even without plus instincts. A relatively patient hitter, the Montgomery native has also walked in 14.9% of his plate appearances in Conway.

The main concern with Chavers is the consistency of his hit tool. He’s gotten to his power consistently at Coastal and on the Cape, but he also swings and misses, with a 19.3% strikeout rate at Coastal and 24.3% on the Cape. Now that he’ll be over 22 and a half for the whole 2021 season, evaluators will want to see that come down considerably. If he can get that strikeout rate down and maintain his big production, he can push himself back into the top 100 picks, but continued strikeout concerns could push him farther down in the draft given his age.

9. SS Josh Hood, Pennsylvania

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 185 lbs. Born 7/21/2000. Hometown: Vineland, NJ

2019-2020: 8 HR, .320/.386/.539, 1 SB, 30/20 K/BB in 49 games.

No Ivy Leaguer has gone in the top eight rounds since the Diamondbacks picked Brent Jones out of Cornell in the fourth round in 2014, but Penn’s Josh Hood has a good chance to do just that. After homering off Jack Leiter at the end of his senior year of high school, he burst onto the scene in Philadelphia with a .331/.411/.580 line, eight home runs, and a sharp 21/20 strikeout to walk ratio as a freshman in 2019. He dropped to a quiet .263/.256/.342 with nine strikeouts and no walks in eight games as a sophomore, then rebounded in the Coastal Plain League this summer to hit .280/.343/.495 with five home runs in 26 games.

Hood’s huge freshman season was driven by his feel to hit. The South Jersey native has great bat to ball skills that helped him strike out in just 10.1% of his plate appearances that year, but he’s not just a slap hitter, showing the ability to consistently barrel the ball into the gaps and even over fences. He’s not the most physical hitter in the world at 6’1″, but his power has played up with wood bats and he looks to have room to grow into some more. Hood has gotten more aggressive as his career has progressed, but he has shown more than enough plate discipline in the past to help him tap average or better power.

As a college shortstop who will stick in the dirt, there isn’t much to dislike in Hood’s game. Between his feel to hit and burgeoning power, he has more than enough bat to start if he reaches his ceiling. If the power stalls and he winds up closer to a 45 in that regard, he still has the pure hitting ability to project as a utility man. Hood, who grew up one town over from Mike Trout’s hometown, offers an intriguing combination of floor and ceiling once you get into Day Two. Throw in the fact that he won’t turn 21 until after the draft, and you’ll have a lot of teams interested.

10. LHP Matt Mikulski, Fordham

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’2″, 200 lbs. Born 5/8/1999. Hometown: Mohegan Lake, NY

2018-2020: 12-12, 3.98 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 148/65 K/BB in 144.2 IP.

Matt Mikulski, like Parker Chavers, went undrafted as a junior in 2020, but he’s more than nine months younger than his Coastal Carolina counterpart and will only turn 22 two months before the 2021 draft. Mikulski has been used in a starting role at Fordham, where he has been solid (3.98 ERA, 148/65 K/BB in 144.2 IP), and he showed really well in a swingman role in the Cape Cod League in 2019 (1.77 ERA, 28/13 K/BB in 20.1 IP). Returning to the Bronx for his senior year, he has a chance to go early on Day Two with just a little more consistency.

Mikulski has a lot going for him, especially considering he’s a 6’2″ lefty. His fastball currently sits in the low 90’s and can bump the mid 90’s even in a starting role, topping out around 96. There are two good breaking balls in a curveball and slider, both of which are usually average and can flash above average regularly. He also throws a changeup, but it’s his fourth pitch. The New Yorker can fill the strike zone, but his strikes are often scattered and he can go through bouts of well below average command when he isn’t feeling it.

Mikulski’s delivery was pretty choppy early in his Fordham career, and though he’s smoothed it out some, it still features some head whack and jerky arm action. For that reason, combined with the inconsistency in his strikes, he might profile better as a reliever. There, he could sit more consistently in the mid 90’s with his fastball, sharpen his breaking balls a bit, and ditch the changeup, and his 45 command won’t be as much of an issue. He still has a chance to be a back-end starter if he refines the changeup and command to about a 50.

Other Interesting Small/Mid Major Options in the East

Northeast Bats

The last man out from the above list was UConn’s Pat Winkel, who actually ranked #10 until Evan Shawver’s rise up the board. Winkel had a huge freshman season for the Huskies (.318/.361/.486, 7 HR), but struggled on the Cape (.194/.243/.337, 4 HR) and missed 2020 with Tommy John surgery. He’s a solid all-around defender behind the plate, which takes significant pressure off his bat and makes that freshman season look much better. The New Haven-area native maximizes his power with raw strength and an optimal, smooth swing from the left side, though his bat speed is ordinary and the power was non-existent on the Cape until he homered three times in his last four games. He’s also very aggressive at the plate with strikeout rates well north of 20% and walk rates around 6%, and will need to tighten that up considerably in 2020. If he can, he has a chance to be a power hitting starting catcher.

Another 2019 freshman star was Manhattan’s Nick Cimillo, who hit .350/.417/.498 with seven home runs in 59 games that year. He wasn’t quite as loud in 2020 (.259/.365/.370), but there is still a lot to like. The New Yorker has above average bat to ball skills that enable him to make a lot of line drive contact, and there is some power in his 6’3″ frame as well. However, as a likely corner outfielder, he’ll need to tap that power more to move up, and his likely ceiling is as a right handed platoon bat.

Northeast Arm

On the mound, I’m most interested in Bryant’s Tyler Mattison, who was eligible as a junior in 2020. He went 14-3 with a 3.44 ERA from 2018-2019, but regressed to an 8.53 ERA in 2020 as his velocity dipped. At his best, the righty from far Upstate New York can get into the mid 90’s with run and show solid average command. At other times, though, his fastball can dip into the upper 80’s and his command can elude him, while his fringy secondary stuff isn’t enough to make up for it. For that reason, despite a 6’4″, 235 pound frame, he probably fits better in the bullpen, where his fastball could play up.

Midwest Bats

Two additional Midwest bats stand out to me. One is Wright State’s Tyler Black, who ripped .348/.465/.614 with seven home runs and a ridiculous 15/35 strikeout to walk ratio as a freshman in 2019. That dropped to .239/.340/.370 as a sophomore, but we still have an interesting one here. The Toronto native has a gerat approach at the plate, attacking hittable pitches with very little swing and miss while still drawing his walks. He also has some power in his 6’2″ frame and has tapped it in games, though the bat can be a bit streaky. He projects as a bat-first second baseman that could play full time if he taps his power more consistently.

Blake Dunn was eligible in 2020, but despite a very successful career at Western Michigan (.338/.423/.460, 7 HR, 47 SB), he went undrafted. He flashes above average raw power with a compact right handed swing, though he hasn’t tapped it much in games and didn’t hit for much impact on the Cape in 2019 (.227/.335/.287, 2 HR, 16 SB). The western Michigan native also shows plus speed and a cannon arm, making him a plus defender in center field even if his instincts play closer to average. There is upside if he can learn to tap his power more often in games, but he’ll be nearly 23 on draft day and there are plenty of younger players with upside.

Midwest Arms

Miami of Ohio’s Sam Bachman and Cincinnati’s Evan Shawver and Drake Batcho all ranked in the top seven, but Ohio has still more to give. Ohio University’s Joe Rock is another fast-rising name, bringing mid 90’s heat and quickly improving secondaries from the left side. That will capture anyone’s attention, especially given he’s 6’6″. Rock was uneven as a freshman (5.19 ERA, 41/37 K/BB in 59 IP) but struck out five of the fourteen hitters he faced on the Cape that summer while allowing just one baserunner, then missed the 2020 season. He has more to prove than most in 2021, but he’ll still be 20 on draft day and has enormous upside.

Kent State’s Max Rippl hasn’t had eye popping numbers yet (5.59 ERA, 25/20 K/BB in 29 IP), but he does have the stuff. His fastball can touch the mid 90’s in short stints and he flashes an above average downer slider, though with fringy command he probably fits best in the bullpen. His June birthday also makes him young for the class.

South Bats

South Alabama’s Ethan Wilson, Memphis’ Hunter Goodman, and Coastal’s Parker Chavers are probably the consensus one, two, and three in this category, but I have an interesting sleeper behind them. James Madison’s Kyle Novak was a freshman on my high school baseball team when I was a senior, and the exceptional feel to hit he showed at the time has carried over to his college career. In two years in Harrisonburg, he owns a .307/.382/.398 line with three home runs and a nice 28/26 strikeout to walk ratio. Novak rarely ever swings and misses and finds the barrel consistently, though at a stocky 5’8″, he’s unlikely to grow into more than 45 power. He’s a man without a position for now, having spent time at DH, first base, and second base, the latter of which is probably his only route to pro ball, so he’ll need to improve his fringy defense there. With great feel for the barrel, though, he has the most important tool.

I’ll spend one more paragraph promoting my former high school teammates. Catcher Kyle Hayes is a grad transfer at George Mason after spending four years at James Madison, and the COVID shutdown and shortened draft likely kept him from being a Day Three selection. Hayes is a defense-first catcher who blocks everything thrown in his vicinity while working well with pitchers to bring the best out of them. He always showed strong plate discipline and feel for the barrel, but a lack of power meant he slashed just .186/.314/.202 over his first three years in Harrisonburg. 2020 was looking like a different story, returning from injury to slash .385/.467/.846 with a pair of home runs in five games. If the power surge had been for real, it likely would have combined with his plus defense to make for a depth piece later in the draft. Though he turned 23 in October, he has a chance to prove his bat in 2021.

South Arms

A number of arms from the South just missed this list. Gabe Shepard was eligible as a sophomore last year as he was a full year older than much of his class, bringing a career 2.79 ERA and a 62/21 K/BB in 42 innings at Southern Miss. He’s just 5’10” but can hit the mid 90’s with his fastball, getting nice run on the pitch with long arm action. The Mobile native also shows great feel to manipulate his breaking ball, working between a shorter cutter and a slurvier slider. His control has been inconsistent but he still has a chance to start. The Campbell Camels’ Cam Cowan (say that five times fast) was also eligible in 2020, but went undrafted despite a hot start to the season (3.00 ERA, 36/4 K/BB in 24 IP). The 6’5″, 245 pound Iowa native can hit the mid 90’s with his fastball and gets great ride on the pitch, while his average changeup and slurvy slider are less exciting. With a plus fastball, big frame, and good command, he could be a back-end starter with some refinement of his offspeed stuff.

Next we have two arms who saw an uptick in velocity. Bryce McGowan hasn’t gotten results at Charlotte yet (5.75 ERA, 63/49 K/BB in 76.2 IP), but his low 90’s fastball has crept into the mid 90’s more often this fall and has climbed as high as 97-98. McGowan’s slider also flashes above average and his changeup is coming along. The command has been fringy so far, but he has a loose, athletic delivery that could be refined enough to get him to average. Jacksonville State’s Christian Edwards is yet another arm returning from eligibility in 2020, having recently touched 99 with his fastball. He adds a good slider and projects as a power reliever.

Samford’s Samuel Strickland was also eligible in 2020, bringing and exceptional career at 18-5 with a 2.85 ERA and a sharp 174/36 strikeout to walk ratio in 173.2 innings. The 6’2″ lefty lacks big stuff, sitting around 90 and topping out around 92-93 with his fastball, adding a set of fringy secondaries. He has been enormously effective in Birmingham due to above average command as well as an innate ability to change speeds and keep hitters off balance, so any step forward with his velocity or secondary stuff could make him a hot commodity very quickly.

Lastly, Austin Vernon might be the biggest draft prospect I’ve ever written about. The NC Central righty is listed at 6’8″ (!) and 295 pounds (!!), but went undrafted in 2020 after missing the season recovering from arm surgery. He shows a vicious mid 90’s fastball coming from a violent delivery with head whack and long hair flying everywhere, adding in both a slider and a curveball that flash above average with late bite. The Raleigh native is almost certainly a reliever with inconsistent command that ranges from well below average to fringe average, but if he can stay healthy, he has late inning potential.

Florida Arms

Down in the Sunshine State, we have two more arms to watch, though they’re very different. I am very, very intrigued by Jermaine Vanheyningen, who was draft eligible last year. The New Jersey native began his career at Campbell, but redshirted his only season and transferred to Florence-Darlington Tech for 2019-2020. Now, he’s at FIU and could break out in 2021. Vanheyningen stands 6’7″ and has steadily added velocity, now sitting in the low to mid 90’s as a starter and topping out at 102 (!) in bullpens. Throw in plus extension, and you have a plus-plus pitch. The secondary stuff is fringier, with an average splitter and fringy breaking balls. He struggles with command as well, and for that reason he’s almost definitely a reliever in pro ball, where he could sit in the upper 90’s and work in his splitter. If Vanheyningen gets to even 45 command, he has closer upside.

Stetson brings us Daniel Paret, who has a 3.36 ERA and a 113/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings in DeLand. The stuff is average overall, with a fastball around 90 and an average slider and changeup. His advanced instincts and solid average command make it play up from the left side, and he projects as a back-end starter.