Monday, May 30, 2022

2022 MLB Draft: One potential hometown pick for every AL/NL East Team

For the third and final installment of the hometown pick series, we'll take a look at the AL and NL East divisions to see which local kids they have a chance of keeping home. You can find the West and Central already on the site.

Atlanta Braves: 3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC
Hometown: Austell, GA. My rank: #14.
The Atlanta area is absolutely loaded with premium talent this year, but because the Braves don't pick until #20, they have virtually no shot to select Druw Jones (Wesleyan HS via Suwanee), Termarr Johnson (Mays HS, Atlanta), or Dylan Lesko (Buford HS). Even so, I think they would be elated to take a shot at Cam Collier if he falls that far. Collier grew up in the western suburb of Austell on the Cobb/Douglas county line, originally playing at Mount Paran Christian HS up in Kennesaw. Following in the footsteps of one Bryce Harper twelve years earlier, he graduated early and skipped both his junior and senior seasons to head to Chipola JC in the Florida Panhandle. Despite being just 17 years old playing against mostly 19-20 year olds, he hit .333/.419/.537 across 52 games to solidify himself as one of the best pure hitters in the class. Collier is a pro hitter through and through. He has a thick, strong, mature 6'2" frame that should only continue to add strength as he finishes out his teens, and he combines that strength with a professional approach in the box to make repeated hard contact to all fields. He works counts like a veteran and makes contact with all kinds of pitches, with a smooth swing that helps him produce above average game power. It's not the most explosive offensive profile, but if anybody in this class could reach the big leagues before they can legally buy alcohol, it's probably Collier. He's also an average defender at third base with a strong arm, so he should stick there. He's committed to Louisville next year and will be draft-eligible again at 20 years old, so he will not be a cheap sign if he makes past the halfway point in the first round. Given the way he's trending, it's not necessarily a likelihood he'll still be around.
Other options: RHP Landon Sims (Mississippi State via Cumming, GA), LHP Tristan Smith (Boiling Springs HS, SC), 3B Tucker Toman (Hammond HS, Columbia, SC), RHP Kumar Rocker (Tri-City ValleyCats via Athens, GA), 2B Chandler Simpson (Georgia Tech via Atlanta, GA)

Baltimore Orioles: 1B Tyler Locklear, Virginia Commonwealth.
Hometown: Abingdon, MD. My rank: #66.
The Orioles like to draft position players and they like college bats in particular, and Tyler Locklear provides them as potent a bat as you can find. Locklear grew up in Abingdon in southern Harford County, just down the road from Cal Ripken Jr.'s hometown of Havre De Grace. He knows Baltimore well, though, having commuted every day down I-95 to Archbishop Curley High School just a couple miles northeast of the Inner Harbor. Since reaching campus at Virginia Commonwealth down in Richmond, he has been a one man wrecking crew, slashing .345/.515/.686 as a sophomore and now on pace to beat all three slash numbers as his junior season winds down. Locklear hits the ball as hard as anybody in the game, showing plus-plus raw power that he taps in games combined with a patient approach that helps him deploy it strategically. His crazy numbers have come against so-so competition in the A-10 Conference, but he also hit .256/.333/.504 in the Cape Cod League and his plate discipline has been so strong that the Orioles should be plenty comfortable projecting him as an impact bat. That bat has a pretty clear first round value on its own, but his lack of defensive value may drop him out of the first round, despite that he closed his season on an absolutely torrid run. He's a divisive prospect but the fact that he hit absolutely everything in sight once the calendar turned to May is probably turning even his detractors into fans, which means he would fit best to the Orioles at pick #33 if he's still around, or #42 at worst.
Other options: 3B Trey Lipscomb (Tennessee via Urbana, MD), OF Chase DeLauter (James Madison via Martinsburg, WV), C Jack Bulger (Vanderbilt via Bowie, MD), RHP Matt Wyatt (Virginia via Towson, MD), 1B Maxwell Costes (Maryland via Baltimore, MD)

Boston Red Sox: C Dominic Keegan, Vanderbilt
Hometown: Methuen, MA. My rank: unranked.
2021 was a banner year for talent hailing from New England, and more broadly the Northeast as a whole, but this year is a bit of the opposite. The region's top native prospect coming into the spring, Northeastern right hander Sebastian Keane, has been inconsistent to say the least, but another man has risen to take his place and that's Vanderbilt catcher Dominic Keegan. Keegan was actually a part of that special class last year but elected to return to school rather than accept a 19th round selection by the Yankees (a slide induced by signability), and he would fit in very well with the Red Sox if they want to make the Yankees pay this year. Boston loves established, well-rounded hitters with track records of performance and the ability to hit for power, which makes this reunion all the more possible. Keegan grew up in Methuen, about 26 miles almost straight north from downtown Boston, and attended Central Catholic HS in nearby Lawrence. He hit .345/.427/.638 against a tough SEC schedule as a junior and like Tyler Locklear has a shot to beat all three slash numbers this year. Also like Locklear, he shows off plus-plus raw power, coming from a ridiculously strong six foot frame that gives him the ability to just flick the barrel through the zone with tremendous force. He struggled with strikeouts last spring and punched out at nearly a 28% rate, but he has cut that down this year and now has a chance to project as an average hitter if things click in pro ball. Keegan moved behind the plate this spring and has been adequate, but like last year's fifth round pick Nathan Hickey, he'll have to work to remain a catcher up to the majors. He's a senior this year but is very young for his class, so he still won't turn 21 until after the draft. He'll likely be one of the hottest senior sings this spring and may not take a huge discount, and he would make sense for Boston starting in the Comp B round (pick #79) and on to the third and possibly fourth rounds.
Other options: RHP Sebastian Keane (Northeastern via North Andover, MA), 2B Luke Gold (Boston College via Ballston, NY), LHP/1B Reggie Crawford (Connecticut via Frackville, PA), RHP Cam Schlitter (Northeastern via Walpole, MA), C/OF Brendan Tinsman (Wake Forest via Cape Elizabeth, ME)

Miami Marlins: OF Roman Anthony, Stoneman Douglas HS, Parkland, FL
Hometown: North Palm Beach, FL. My rank: #51.
The Marlins pick at #6 this year, which is probably a bit too early to take first round prospects Brandon Barriera (American Heritage HS) and Zach Neto (Campbell via Miami), but their second round pick at #46 brings a great opportunity to keep fast rising outfielder Roman Anthony home. Anthony grew up in North Palm Beach but played his high school ball a bit farther south at the power Stoneman Douglas program in Parkland, where he has set the world on fire as a senior. Anthony possesses huge raw power from an intimidating 6'3" frame, unleashing a beautiful left handed stroke that can really send the ball impressive distances. He swung and missed a lot over the summer, but he's been much more consistent this spring against tough South Florida competition and has firmly calmed scouts' worries about his hit tool, looking the part of a well rounded hitter in addition to a slugger. He may not stick in center field but has plenty of arm strength to be an asset in right field, giving the Marlins a lot of incentive to keep him from heading to Ole Miss for college. In the second round, they should be able to make it work without having to go too crazy far above slot.
Other options: LHP Brandon Barriera (American Heritage HS via Hollywood, FL), SS Cameron Smith (Palm Beach Central HS, FL), 3B Sal Stewart (Westminster Christian HS via Miami, FL), LHP Carson Palmquist (Miami via Fort Myers, FL), SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje (Champagnat Catholic HS, FL via Curacao)

New York Mets: RHP/SS Nazier Mule, Passaic County Tech HS, Wayne, NJ
Hometown: Paterson, NJ. My rank: #77.
The Mets have five of the first ninety picks, so they have some leeway to take risks as well as spread some money around. Across the river in New Jersey, they have an opportunity to roll the dice in a big way and hope for a huge outcome. Nazier Mule is a Paterson native playing for Passaic County Tech northwest of Manhattan, and there might not be a player in the country outside the first round range with more raw talent. Mule can pop triple digits with his fastball and comfortably sits in the mid to upper 90's, with a ton of run that makes it even harder to square up. He also snaps off some above average sliders but isn't as consistent with the pitch, while his changeup is more advanced than you might expect for a flame throwing 17 year old considered raw by most evaluators. Presently, he's much more thrower than pitcher, with a high effort delivery featuring a ton of head whack as he hurls the ball towards the plate, negatively impacting his command. That would typically make you think of the 6'2" righty as a relief prospect, but he's extremely young for the class and won't turn 18 until October, making him nearly a year and a half younger than some of the older prospects in the class. Because of his extreme youth that would make him belong age-wise in the 2023 class, in addition to being a cold weather arm that doesn't get to throw as often, I'm willing to cut him some slack and give him a shot at becoming an impact starting pitcher down the line. There's a lot to do, notably cleaning up his delivery and getting more consistent with his offspeed stuff, but the arm strength and raw talent are absolutely tremendous. He's also a shortstop with a ton of bat speed from the right side of the plate, but his swing isn't the smoothest and his approach is very raw at the plate, as you'd expect given his youth and focus on pitching. Mule is committed to Miami and will be draft eligible again at 20 years old in 2025, but the Mets will have plenty of bonus pool money and could pop him as early as the second round or in the second compensation/third round range.
Other options: LHP Trey Dombroski (Monmouth via Manasquan, NJ), LHP Michael Kennedy (Troy HS, NY), 2B Luke Gold (Boston College via Ballston, NY), RHP Connor Staine (Central Florida via Branchburg, NJ), RHP Henry Williams (Duke via Darien, CT)

New York Yankees: RHP Connor Staine, Central Florida.
Hometown: Branchburg, NJ. My rank: #74.
From Clarke Schmidt to Richard Fitts, the Yankees don't shy away from banged up college arms, and they could be in the market again at pick #61 if they want to bet on a local product. Connor Staine has his hometown variously listed as Branchburg, a far western suburb in Somerset County, New Jersey, or Clinton, which is two towns further west in Hunterdon County. Regardless, he attended West Morris Central High School in neither of those counties, a bit to the north in far western Morris County, and grew up not a Yankees or Mets fan but a Rays fan. From there, he began his college career at Maryland before transferring to UCF this year, getting off to a red hot start by not allowing an earned run over his first 33.2 innings into mid April. Things have been a bit more up and down since then as he's battled back and blister issues, but it's easy to envision an impact MLB starter. The 6'4" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 97, while his slider is an above average pitch and he rounds out his arsenal with a curve and changeup. His command has gotten better as he's grown into his big frame, allowing him to finally get the most out of his loud stuff, and the whole package has a lot to like. He may fall to the Yankees there in the second round because of the nagging injuries that have allowed him to complete four innings just once since early March, but if they can get him healthy, he can be a #3 starter.
Other options: 2B Luke Gold (Boston College via Ballston, NY), C Adonys Guzman (Brunswick HS, Greenwich, CT via Valley Cottage, NY), RHP Henry Williams (Duke via Darien, CT), RHP Caden Dana (Don Bosco HS, Ramsey, NJ via Montgomery, NY), 1B Jayden Hylton (Palm Beach Gardens HS, FL via Basking Ridge, NJ)

Philadelphia Phillies: C Cade Hunter, Virginia Tech
Hometown: Mount Laurel, NJ. My rank: #67.
The last time Virginia Tech had a position player go in the top three rounds, it was a South Jersey product in Mark Zagunis (Riverton native, Holy Cross HS). Tech could have as many as three go in that range this year, with one being another South Jersey native in Mount Laurel's Cade Hunter (Lenape HS). Hunter played just 31 games over his first two seasons in Blacksburg, but just like the Hokies team as a whole, he broke out in a big way in 2022 to push himself way up draft boards. He possesses plus raw power from the left side that manifests into huge exit velocities, something that's very hard to find in a true catching prospect. The hit tool is a bit behind the power and he'll need to continue to learn to handle high octane pitching as he moves up, but he's making a ton more contact than 2021 (when he struck out 32% of the time) and given that he hasn't seen the field much until this year, it's not terribly surprising. Behind the plate, Hunter is a great athlete who can pop out of the crouch in a hurry and turn in average run times. For now, that athleticism doesn't always manifest into consistent agility back there, but he's improving. As he continues to get more feel for the position, he should be able to stick back there with a strong arm, especially if we get robot umpires in the near future. This is a potential middle of the order bat at a premium position if the Phillies can help him clean up a couple of things, and while they don't pick between #17 and #93, there's a chance he's still around at the latter selection.
Other options: SS Max Martin (Moorestown HS, NJ), LHP/1B Reggie Crawford (Connecticut via Frackville, PA), LHP Noah Dean (Old Dominion via Little Egg Harbor, NJ), RHP Jake Madden (Northwest Florida State via Enola, PA), OF Chris Newell (Virginia via Newtown Square, PA)

Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State
Hometown: Windermere, FL. My rank: #35.
Bryce Hubbart has fallen a little bit since I had him at #35 on my rankings and he'll appear a bit lower the next go around. The Rays currently pick at #29, #65, #70, and #71, with the former representing his ceiling if he pitches well in the NCAA Tournament and the latter three looking closer to his most likely range if he does not throw well. Regardless, this is a Rays profile through and through. Hubbart grew up in the western Orlando suburb of Windermere and attended Windermere HS, then headed north to Tallahassee to pitch at Florida State. There, he forms one of the best one-two punches in the country with Plant City native Parker Messick, another lefty. Hubbart has the kind of fastball the Rays covet, an invisiball that sneaks past hitters with riding action, though its velocity has been inconsistent. He touched as high as 97 on the Cape, where he was one of the league's most dominant pitchers, but more often this spring he's been down in the 89-91 range, where it is still effective due to its movement. On the Cape, Hubbart flashed a pair of plus breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, but he hasn't used them as often this spring as he has more consistent feel for his fastball. He also rounds out his arsenal with an average changeup. A bit undersized at a skinny 6'1", he comes from an uptempo delivery that might have some evaluators pointing to the bullpen, but his command has steadily improved to average and I still see a starter for now. He's also young for the class and will only turn 21 shortly before the draft, giving him extra time to sort things out, and he impressed me in this interview with Prospects Live as a student of the game who understands the art of pitching. We're not quite sure who the real Bryce Hubbart is yet, but if he ends up in this system, you can bank on the Rays turning him into the absolute best version of himself. Given how he threw on the Cape (0.87 ERA, 45/8 K/BB in 31 IP), that's a scary thought.
Other options: LHP Parker Messick (Florida State via Plant City, FL), RHP Walter Ford (Pace HS, FL), OF Jud Fabian (Florida via Ocala, FL), LHP Carson Palmquist (Miami via Fort Myers, FL), RHP Brandon Sproat (Florida via Pace, FL)

Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Jacob Zibin, TNXL Academy, FL
Hometown: Langley, BC. My rank: unranked.
Jacob Zibin's hometown of Langley, British Columbia may be more than two thousand miles from Toronto, but that doesn't mean it's not firm Blue Jays territory. Between him and Oregon's Adam Maier (a North Vancouver native), the Vancouver area has given us two very good arms in this cycle. Zibin grew up in Langley, about 25 miles (40 kilometers) southeast of downtown Vancouver near the US border, but headed more than 2,500 miles across the continent to TNXL Academy in the Orlando area for high school. He then reclassified from the 2023 class to the 2022 class, making him the only player on my radar born in 2005. That's even younger than my dog. Despite his youth, the Canadian righty has plenty of present stuff. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can scrape the upper 90's at best, with some run to boot. His sweepy slider provides a reliable out pitch for now while his changeup is very advanced for a 17 year old, giving him a well rounded arsenal to work with. Zibin throws plenty of strikes from a simple delivery, with plenty of present strength but more room to grow into his 6'3" frame. The combination of arm strength, pitchability, and size is very hard to find at that age, and while he will need some refinement, the Blue Jays can get a nice and early start if they draft him in the second to third round range. Committed to Kentucky where he would be draft eligible again shortly after his 20th birthday, he might get expensive quickly if they let him get much farther than those compensation picks between the second and third rounds.
Other options: RHP Adam Maier (Oregon via North Vancouver, BC), OF Owen Diodati (Alabama via Niagara Falls, ON), 1B David McCabe (Charlotte via Oshawa, ON), LHP Antoine Jean (Alabama via Montreal, QC), RHP Eli Saul (Sacramento State via Vancouver, BC)

Washington Nationals: SS Nick Morabito, Gonzaga HS, DC
Hometown: McLean, VA. My rank: unranked.
The Nationals' farm system hit rock bottom prior to the 2021 draft and subsequent major league selloff, but they've begun to restock the system with a focus on young bats. From the international side, we have Jeremy De La Rosa and Viandel Peña starting to make some noise, while Brady House, Sammy Infante, TJ White, and Daylen Lile have come in through the draft. They'll likely add more prep bats in this draft, and one of them could come from right in their backyard. Nick Morabito is a product of McLean, Virginia, an inner DC suburb home to many congressmen and other high ranking officials, and he commutes across the Potomac River to attend Gonzaga HS on H Street in Washington's NoMa neighborhood. Like fellow Northern Virginia infielder James Triantos a year ago, Morabito has really come on strong this spring and is rising quickly up boards. He's a bat-first prospect with a lightning quick swing from the right side, driving pretty much everything in site lately. It's a compact operation that especially helps him do damage up in the zone, in contrast with many of today's low ball hitters, and he has a chance for above average power down the line despite a smaller 5'11" frame. The glove will need more work, as he isn't quite explosive enough to stick at shortstop and may be forced to second base or left field in the long run. That puts some pressure on the bat, but he has a lot of believers. Another slight ding on his profile is age, as he already turned 19 more than two months before the draft and is more in line with the age of a college freshman. Committed to a Virginia Tech program fresh off an ACC regular season title, he'll be eligible again in 2024 as a sophomore if he goes that route and will be expensive. He makes sense for the Nationals in the second or third round.
Other options: RHP Jacob Watters (West Virginia via Rocky Gap, VA), LHP Levi Huesman (Hanover HS, VA), SS Tanner Schobel (Virginia Tech via Williamsburg, VA), RHP Jack O'Connor (Bishop O'Connell HS, Arlington, VA), LHP Nate Savino (Virginia via Sterling, VA)

Sunday, May 22, 2022

2022 MLB Draft: One potential hometown pick for every AL/NL Central Team

This is the second installment in the three part hometown pick series, following the AL and NL West (you can now find the AL/NL East here). If you've followed me for any amount of time, you probably know that I love a good hometown pick. Over the offseason, I recreated all thirty teams if they only used players from their "home turf," and last year I practiced this same exercise for the draft. Last year, the central divisions actually followed along somewhat, with the Royals taking both Carter Jensen (Park Hill HS) and Ben Kudrna (Blue Valley Southwest HS) out of the Kansas City area and the Brewers drafting Oak Creek native Alex Binelas out of Louisville, though they lost their good standing by almost immediately trading him to Boston. With that, let's look at some hometown pick options for the AL and NL Central.

Chicago Cubs: 3B Estevan Moreno, Montini Catholic HS, Lombard, IL
Hometown: Hanover Park, IL. My rank: #95.
Two years ago, the Cubs drafted shortstop Ed Howard out of Mount Carmel HS on the South Side, and they'll have plenty of opportunities to do it again this year. Their #7 overall pick is probably a little bit too early to grab Oswego native Noah Schultz, who figures to go somewhere in the middle to back of the first round if signable, but head a little bit north and east and you have Hanover Park's Estevan Moreno, who is having a strong spring at Montini Catholic HS in Lombard. I'm a big fan of Moreno, who could fit somewhere in the third to fifth round range for the Cubs if they want to keep him home rather than let him move on to Notre Dame for school. He does a lot of things well at the plate, using an all fields approach that effectively helps him put barrel to baseball with regularity. Come into his wheelhouse, though, and there is plenty of strength in his 6'2" to really turn on the ball, and the hope is that in time, he'll learn to spread that power out to all fields. That would create a very favorable offensive profile combining power and a professional approach if it works out. There isn't as much upside on the defensive side, as he's an average athlete that can handle third base for now but will have to work to stay there rather than move to first base or an outfield corner. Moreno is a smart, driven kid that loves baseball and should thrive in a competitive environment in pro ball.
Other options: LHP Noah Schultz (Oswego East HS, IL), OF Clark Elliott (Michigan via Barrington, IL), RHP Owen Murphy (Riverside-Brookfield HS, Riverside, IL), OF Ryan Cermak (Illinois State via Riverside, IL), RHP AJ Izzi (Oswego East HS, IL)

Chicago White Sox: OF Ryan Cermak, Illinois State.
Hometown: Riverside, IL. My rank: #71.
I strongly considered Oswego East HS lefty Noah Schultz here, but even though the White Sox broke their streak of staying on the college side with Indiana high schooler Colson Montgomery last year, I think Schultz might be a hair too risky for them as a high school pitcher coming off a bout with mono. I honestly think he still has a decent chance of ending up on the South Side, but instead I'll go with Illinois State breakout star Ryan Cermak. Cermak attended Riverside-Brookfield High School just west of the Chicago city limits, then after hitting .284/.349/.553 as a sophomore but running up a 25.1% strikeout rate, he has improved significantly in all three slash categories this spring while dropping that strikeout rate. Though he's four inches shorter, he reminds me of Cincinnati's Joey Wiemer a few years ago as a super athlete from a mid-major Midwestern school with tools all over the place. Cermak has plus raw power that he has tapped very consistently against MVC pitching this spring, effectively channeling some moving parts in his load into a very simple, compact right handed swing. He's very aggressive at the plate but he has been at least a little more disciplined this spring, lending hope to an average hit tool. Given his immense athleticism, you may not be surprised to learn he's a plus runner with a plus arm that could be an asset in center field going forward. This seems to be a profile the White Sox could like, maybe not in the first round at pick #26 but potentially in the second round at pick #62 or in the third round at #101 if he slides a bit.
Other options: LHP Noah Schultz (Oswego East HS, IL), SS Ryan Ritter (Kentucky via Tinley Park, IL), 3B/RHP Jack Brannigan (Notre Dame via Orland Park, IL), RHP AJ Izzi (Oswego East HS, IL), LHP Cole Kirschsieper (Illinois via Frankfort, IL)

Cincinnati Reds: RHP Jacob Miller, Liberty Union HS, Baltimore, OH
Hometown: Baltimore, OH. My rank: #55.
The Reds love their prep bats, but there are none on my radar in that Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana area. They haven't drafted and signed a high school pitcher in any round since Lyon Richardson and Yomil Maysonet in 2018 (a year after Hunter Greene), but with five of the first 94 picks, they have some extra money to play around with and they have two really good options in their extended backyard. I took a good, hard look at Indianapolis righty Andrew Dutkanych, a personal favorite of mine, but ultimately decided to stay in state with another rising righty in Jacob Miller. Miller attends Liberty Union High School in Baltimore, a small Fairfield County town about half an hour southwest of Columbus, where he has been turning heads with a strong spring. Miller has a powerful right arm, sitting in the low to mid 90's and hitting 97 with his fastball, but he makes his money with a wicked curveball that ranks among the best in the class. He also adds a solid slider and changeup, giving him a full arsenal to succeed as a starting pitcher. The 6'2" righty fills up the strike zone well and has a sturdy frame, furthering that starter projection. Miller wasn't quite as consistent later in his high school season and does need to shore up his in-zone command a bit, but it's a very enticing profile for the Reds' picks at #32, #55, and #73. With a Louisville commitment in hand, he's likely to be very expensive at pick #73 and would still likely require an over slot bonus at #55, but Cincinnati has the money if they want to go that route.
Other options: RHP Andrew Dutkanych (Brebeuf Jesuit HS, IN), OF Alec Sayre (Wright State via Dover, OH), C Dalton Rushing (Louisville via Brighton, TN), 3B Ben Metzinger (Louisville via Louisville, KY), RHP Jared Poland (Louisville via Fishers, IN)

Cleveland Guardians: RHP Mack Anglin, Clemson
Hometown: Marengo, OH. My rank: unranked.
The Guardians like college arms and high school bats. There aren't any big name prep bats in Northern Ohio that I know of (and only one position player, Medina's Luke Raley, from Northern Ohio even appeared in an MLB game in 2021), so we'll go with a college arm. In 2021, Cleveland drafted a whole host of college arms that had gone unselected in the 2020 draft for one reason or another, including with five of their first eight picks, and in this case I have them doing that again in 2022. Mack Anglin could have gone somewhere in the middle of day two had he been signable, but ultimately opted to head back to Clemson and bet on himself. Anglin grew up in the tiny Central Ohio town of Marengo, home to 342 residents between Columbus and Mansfield on I-71, then headed south to Clemson for college. He flashed some of the nastiest pure stuff in the ACC last spring, when he struck out 75 batters over 56.1 innings as a draft-eligible sophomore, but he bet on himself and headed back to school. This year has been more or less much of the same, so if Cleveland wants to bring him back home, he probably figures once more somewhere in the middle of day two. Anglin runs his fastball into the mid 90's but stands out the most for his ability to spin the ball. His curveball is a plus pitch with vicious spin rates and his slider is a distinct, above average pitch in its own right, giving him numerous big league out pitches with which to attack hitters. Unfortunately, his command has been below average throughout his career and with a high effort delivery and a fringy changeup, he looks ticketed to the bullpen. Given how much starting pitching depth Cleveland has in the minors, they can stomach that and hope his stuff can take yet another step forward in the bullpen. I'd be really interested to see how that plays in short stints.
Other options: RHP Jacob Miller (Liberty Union HS, Baltimore, OH), 3B Zach Dezenzo (Ohio State via Alliance, OH), SS Phillip Glasser (Indiana via Tallmadge, OH), LHP Drake Batcho (Florida International via Warren, OH), SS Cole Young (North Allegheny HS, Wexford, PA)

Detroit Tigers: RHP Brock Porter, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI
Hometown: Milford, MI. My rank: #19.
I strongly considered having some fun and giving the Tigers Porter's battery mate Ike Irish, but ultimately, this was a match made in heaven and could really happen. The Tigers love young, hard throwing pitchers and have a history of drafting them from Beau Burrows to Jackson Jobe. Brock Porter could be next, and he would give them a Metro Detroit native. Porter grew up in Milford, just over thirty miles northwest of downtown in western Oakland County, and he commutes back east to play for the powerhouse Orchard Lake St. Mary's program that produced Alex Mooney last year and also includes Irish, as mentioned. Porter is one of the hardest throwers in the prep class, comfortably sitting in the mid 90's and reaching triple digits at his best, with the pitch really jumping on hitters. It's not just a case of him going all out, as he has the arm strength to hold that mid 90's velocity deep into his starts. He throws two breaking balls in a loopy curveball and an inconsistent slider, though the latter flashes plus at its best and the former could tighten into an out pitch as he develops. Unlike most power high school arms, he actually stands out the most for his changeup, a plus pitch that has really dazzled hitters everywhere he's gone. Also unlike most preps that throw as hard as he does, the 6'4" righty does a good job of filling up the strike zone, though he does need to get a bit better about hitting his spots. Still, when you throw that hard, you don't have to be perfect. Porter has a clean, athletic delivery, but there is some head whack to be cognizant of. One small drawback in the profile is age, as he turns 19 more than a month before the draft and is older than some college freshmen. It will be expensive to buy him out of a Clemson commitment but at pick #12, Detroit shouldn't have to go too far above slot value.
Other options: C Ike Irish (Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI via Hudsonville, MI), OF Gregory Pace (Edison HS, Detroit, MI), RHP Andrew Taylor (Central Michigan via Alto, MI), OF Nolan Schubart (Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI via Durand, MI), OF Clark Elliott (Michigan via Barrington, IL)

Kansas City Royals: RHP Karson Milbrandt, Liberty HS, MO
Hometown: Liberty, MO. My rank: #123.
Last year, the Royals not only drafted the Ben Kudrna (Blue Valley Southwest HS), hometown pick I gave them in last year's article, they also made it double and grabbed Carter Jensen (Park Hill HS) as well. This year, I'll go back to the high school ranks again and put Karson Milbrandt on their radar, who is having a nice spring at Liberty High School northeast of the city. He stands out first and foremost for his fastball, typically a low 90's pitch that has gotten up to 96 this year. Coming from a low arm slot, the pitch features huge spin rates and a ton of arm side run, making it one of the tougher fastballs to square up in the class. He's gotten more consistent with his offspeed stuff this year, showing an above average slider and flipping in an average curveball. His changeup is behind, which isn't uncommon for prep arms, but we have the chance for a full starter's arsenal from a unique slot. Milbrandt's command comes and goes and there is certainly reliever risk, especially combined with the lower slot and his smaller 6'1" frame, but he's on the younger side having only turned 18 in April and has time to fill out. Perhaps most importantly for Kansas City, his Vanderbilt commitment will make him an expensive sign, especially if they wait until their third round pick to grab him. High school pitchers are unpredictable, but the second round feels a bit rich for right now.
Other options: 2B Robert Moore (Arkansas via Leawood, KS), RHP Jacob Misiorowski (Crowder JC via Grain Valley, MO), RHP Ben Bybee (Blue Valley Southwest HS, Overland Park, KS), LHP Jake Bennett (Oklahoma via Bixby, OK), RHP Carter Rustad (Missouri via Kansas City, MO)

Milwaukee Brewers: SS Gavin Kilen, Milton HS, WI
Hometown: Milton, WI. My rank: #53.
Like the Royals, the Brewers took my advice and drafted last year's hometown pick Alex Binelas (Oak Creek native) in the third round, though they promptly traded him to Boston in the Hunter Renfroe deal. They like their young hitters and have seen some success from guys like Felix Valerio, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Jackson Chourio, even if they're still waiting on Garrett Mitchell and Hedbert Perez to find their groove. For that reason, there's a chance they could go out to that I-90 corridor and grab Gavin Kilen out of Milton High School just north of Janesville. Kilen can really, really play, utilizing a very mature approach at the plate and strong bat to ball skills to make contact as consistently as anybody in the class outside of that top tier. He also plays a slick shortstop with plenty of range. One the down side, the Milton native is far from the most physical player in the class, with a skinny 5'11" frame that does not produce much power to this point, especially since he's more focused on all fields, line drive contact. Kilen also has some arm strength, but not quite the cannon teams look for at shortstop and he may fit better at second base, where he would be above average. Coming into the season, Kilen and potential top five pick Jackson Holliday were very fairly similar players, but Holliday has gotten much stronger and had an electric spring while Kilen has underwhelmed just a touch. If his ends up being a late bloomer physically like Holliday, he could end up an extremely well-rounded player in the end. Committed to Louisville like so many others from the area in recent years, he could go get stronger with the Cardinals, but it would be fun to see the Brewers jump on him in the second or CBB round.
Other options: LHP Connor Prielipp (Alabama via Tomah, WI), 3B Max Wagner (Clemson via Green Bay, WI), OF Tommy Specht (Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA), RHP Jack Washburn (Mississippi via Webster, WI), C Drake Baldwin (Missouri State via Madison, WI)

Minnesota Twins: RHP Adam Mazur, Iowa
Hometown: Woodbury, MN. My rank: #32.
There are two Washington County products that figure to go in the top fifty or so picks in this draft between Tennessee's Drew Gilbert and Iowa's Adam Mazur. Minnesota's second round pick doesn't roll around until #48 and may not get a shot at either, but between the two, Mazur is probably more likely to be available (getting blown up by Indiana recently doesn't hurt his chances of reaching #48 either). The pick would make sense, too, after the Twins spent last year's second round pick on another funky Big Ten arm in Michigan's Steven Hajjar. Mazur went to Woodbury High School in St. Paul's eastern suburbs, where he played against nearby Stillwater High School's stars Gilbert and Will Frisch (now at Oregon State) and alongside Marlins top prospect Max Meyer. He's well-travelled throughout the Upper Midwest, having begun his career at South Dakota State before transferring back east to Iowa, where he's seen his stock rise significantly. Mazur sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and gets up to 97 with arm side run, while a plus slider with deep bite is his best secondary. He also shows a solid curveball and changeup, giving him a full arsenal. The 6'4" righty is plenty projectable and is really growing into his body well, getting more consistent with his mechanics and improving his command along the way. He has a chance to be an impact starting pitcher and he could do so at home in Minnesota.
Other options: OF Drew Gilbert (Tennessee via Stillwater, MN), RHP Will Frisch (Oregon State via Stillwater, MN), 1B Peyton Williams (Iowa via Johnston, IA), 3B Mac Horvath (North Carolina via Rochester, MN), RHP Seth Halvorsen (Tennessee via Plymouth, MN)

Pittsburgh Pirates: SS Cole Young, North Allegheny HS, Wexford, PA
Hometown: Wexford, PA. My rank: #36.
The Pirates went all out last year when they had the largest bonus pool and signed Anthony Solometo, Lonnie White Jr., and Bubba Chandler to massive over slot bonuses, and this year they can be aggressive again with the fourth largest pool of any team and three of the first 44 picks. While Cole Young won't be in play at the fourth overall pick, he makes sense as a reasonable over slot candidate at #36 or #44 if he wants to stay home. Young attends North Allegheny High School in Wexford, a northern suburb of Pittsburgh within a few miles of David Bednar's Mars Area High School and Neil Walker's Pine-Richland High School. In stark contrast to fellow prep shortstops Jackson Holliday, Mikey Romero, and Max Martin, Young has seen his stock hold extremely steady throughout the cycle, a testament to his simple, consistent style of play. He's a very heady ballplayer that makes, you guessed it, very consistent hard contact at the plate, using a line drive approach that serves him just as well against high-octane showcase arms as it does against the Pittsburgh-area high school competition back home. He finds the sweet spot regularly on pitches inside and outside the zone, handling velocity and quality breaking balls with ease. While that contact-over-power approach does limit his game power a bit, he produces higher exit velocities than you'd expect given his skinny six foot frame when he does decide to turn on one. Young is also a strong defender with a good chance to stick at shortstop, further adding to his value. Committed to Duke, he will likely be an expensive sign.
Other options: OF Paxton Kling (Central HS, Roaring Spring, PA), RHP Jake Madden (Northwest Florida State JC via Enola, PA), C Matt Wood (Penn State via Gibsonia, PA), OF Derek Orndorff (Liberty via Mill Run, PA), RHP Cameron Weston (Michigan via Canonsburg, PA)

St. Louis Cardinals: 3B Cayden Wallace, Arkansas
Hometown: Greenbrier, AR. My rank: #62.
It's a down year for talent in the Eastern Missouri/Southern Illinois region this year, so I had to cast my net a little wider to bring a hometown pick to St. Louis. Living in Texas, I've learned that Arkansas (especially northern and eastern Arkansas) is deep Cardinals country, so I feel perfectly good going down to the Natural State to grab Cayden Wallace as the Cardinals' hometown pick. Wallace grew up in the small town of Greenbrier, about 45 minutes north of Little Rock and five and a half hours southwest of Busch Stadium. He was a big time prospect at Greenbrier High School that was good enough to hear his name called in the five round draft in 2020, but signability led him to Fayetteville instead where he has built his stock further. Seen as mostly a power hitter in high school, Wallace got on base at a .369 clip as a true freshman and .352 in the Cape Cod League and is now flirting with .400 this season as of this writing. He still possesses plus raw power from the right side, capable of producing big exit velocities and putting the ball out to all fields. Wallace is still learning pitch selection and can be susceptible to offspeed stuff, but he's improving and his ability to keep his barrel long through the zone helps him limit his strikeouts to a reasonable number. His future position is up in the air, as his cannon arm alone gives him a shot at third base, but he still has some work to do with the glove if he wants to stay there. He runs well for his size and could be a solid defender in right field. The Cardinals like these more or less complete college bats with some pop, so it would not be surprising to see Wallace head across the border to St. Louis. It seems unlikely they would bite with their 22nd overall pick unless he catches fire through the postseason, but if he's still available at pick #59, it would make a lot of sense. He probably fits about a dozen or so picks before that on talent alone but signability may play a factor as he's sophomore eligible and does not turn 21 until August.
Other options: C Dalton Rushing (Louisville via Brighton, TN), LHP Bradley Loftin (DeSoto Central HS, Southaven, MS), OF Kevin Graham (Mississippi via O'Fallon, MO), C Jimmy Obertop (Michigan via St. Louis, MO), RHP Collin Baumgartner (SIU Edwardsville via Brighton, IL)

Sunday, May 15, 2022

2022 MLB Draft: One potential hometown pick for every AL/NL West Team

If you've followed me for any amount of time, you probably know that I love a good hometown pick. Over the offseason, I recreated all thirty teams if they only used players from their "home turf," and last year I practiced this same exercise for the draft. None of the AL/NL West ones came true, not that I expected them to, but some did in other divisions. So, thinking about our friends making up the AL and NL West divisions, if each of them were to take a shot on a hometown kid, who might that be? Let's go team by team.
AL/NL Central
AL/NL East

Arizona Diamondbacks: OF Gavin Turley, Hamilton HS, Chandler, AZ
Hometown: Midway, Utah. My rank: #46.
I'm not sure exactly how this situation played out, but it looks like Gavin Turley grew up in Midway, Utah, just over the Wasatch Range from Salt Lake City. His brother Noah went on to play college baseball at the University of Arizona, and and it looks like Gavin followed him there to finish his high school career at regional powerhouse Hamilton High School in Chandler, a southern suburb of Phoenix. Anyways, the Diamondbacks usually prefer to go hit over power with their prep bats, as evidenced by names like Jordan Lawlar (2021), Corbin Carroll (2019), Alek Thomas (2018), and Matt McLain (2018), but they did briefly break that trend with A.J. Vukovich in 2020. Gavin Turley is a supreme athlete that has shown some of the best raw tools in the class, showing plus in a smatter of different areas. He's a right handed hitter with an extremely loose, busy operation at the plate, unleashing powerful swings that produce big time exit velocities. His hit tool has been less consistent and the barrel accuracy is not always there, but he has had stretches where he gets hot and looks like a surefire first round pick. Turley has also turned in some plus-plus run times and shows big arm strength, giving him huge upside in the field just like at the plate, though he does need refinement out there and may end up in right field rather than center. Arizona would need to show some patience in developing him, but the payoff could be huge in a five tool player that can significantly impact the game in multiple areas. Turley may come into play with Arizona's CBA pick at #34 or their second round pick at #43 if they're feeling aggressive, but by the time they pick again at #82, it might be prohibitively expensive to sign him away from an Oregon State commitment should he still be on the board.
Other options: C Daniel Susac (Arizona via Roseville, CA), 3B Jacob Berry (Louisiana State via Queen Creek, AZ), OF Justin Crawford (Bishop Gorman HS, Las Vegas, NV), OF Mason Neville (Basic HS, Henderson, NV), OF Joe Lampe (Arizona State via Petaluma, CA)

Colorado Rockies: RHP Riley Cornelio, Texas Christian
Hometown: Monument, Colorado. My rank: unranked.
There is some real talent from the Front Range in the big leagues today, mostly on the mound in Kevin Gausman (Centennial), Marco Gonzales (Fort Collins), Kyle Freeland (Denver), Mark Melancon (Golden), and the Rogers twins (Littleton). The region's top two prospects this spring, at least that I am aware of, are both pitchers as well, though both headed to Texas for college as neither Colorado, Colorado State, Denver, nor Wyoming offer baseball. While Andrew Morris has taken over as the Friday night starter at Texas Tech, Riley Cornelio is seeing his first ever consistent innings at TCU after combining for just 17.2 between his freshman and sophomore seasons. Cornelio was a highly touted recruit out of Pine Creek High School on the far north side of Colorado Springs, earning some draft buzz but ultimately fulfilling his commitment to the Horned Frogs. He was off to a strong start in 2022 with a 2.87 ERA through mid-April, but has been a bit more human lately and now sits at 4.28. The 6'3" righty has explosive stuff in a fastball that's been up to 97, a sharp breaking ball, and a decent changeup, and his command has improved considerably during his time in Fort Worth as he's toned down his high effort delivery. There are more starter traits here than there were out of high school, though he's old for a junior and will turn 22 before the draft. If the Rockies wanted to throw him back in the bullpen, the stuff could play up and they wouldn't have to worry as much about his still-inconsistent command. He fits in the fourth to sixth round range and could be an under slot candidate given his age.
Other options: RHP Andrew Morris (Texas Tech via Boulder, CO), OF Gavin Turley (Hamilton HS, AZ via Midway, UT), SS Andrew Pintar (Brigham Young via Spanish Fork, UT), 3B Skyler Messinger (Texas via Niwot, CO), OF Justin Boyd (Oregon State via Parker, CO)

Houston Astros: RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech
Hometown: Willis, TX. My rank: #99.
Usually, the Houston area is teeming with talent, both in the prep ranks and in players that left for school. A few years ago, the Cypress Ranch High School varsity team had four players that would go on to be top fifty picks – JJ Goss (Rays), Matthew Thompson (White Sox), Colton Cowser (Orioles), and Ty Madden (Tigers). That's not so much the case this year, with most of the talent in the state hailing from DFW, San Antonio, and even the Permian Basin. One name from Southeast Texas has taken a step forward this year, though, and that is Brandon Birdsell. A native of Willis, which is about 45 minutes north of downtown Houston on I-45 just past Conroe, Birdsell has been all over the state. He spent his freshman season pitching sparingly at Texas A&M, then transferred to San Jacinto JC in Houston where his stock exploded. However, he went unselected in the five round draft in 2020 and moved on to Texas Tech, where he continued to receive draft buzz before shoulder problems ended his season prematurely. Healthy in 2022, he's pitching as well as ever and has worked his way back into discussion in the top couple of rounds. The 6'2" righty sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and regularly tops out in the upper 90's, coming from a short arm action that hides the ball well and helps him command it. His power slider flashes plus in the mid to upper 80's, and he also flips in an occasional curveball and changeup as well. It's a full starter's arsenal, and the Astros develop pitching at a high level. He turned 22 in March and is on the older side, but that should hardly be a problem given how he's thrown when healthy. As of now, the Astros' first shot at him will probably be with their third round pick at #103, but if he continues to throw well into the postseason, he may not be available there.
Other options: SS Gavin Guidry (Barbe HS, Lake Charles, LA), SS Trey Faltine (Texas via Richmond, TX), RHP Cole Phillips (Boerne HS, TX), OF Jared McKenzie (Baylor via Round Rock, TX), C Silas Ardoin (Texas via Moss Bluff, LA)

Los Angeles Angels: RHP Riley Kelly, Tustin HS, CA
Hometown: Santa Ana, CA. My rank: #61.
The Angels' first love is college arms, but Orange County is a bit light on those this year. Instead, we'll go with a local pop up prospect in Riley Kelly, who has had a very loud spring for Tustin High School a few miles down I-5 from Angel Stadium. A projectable 6'4" righty, his fastball has crept up to around 90 and touched 94 this spring, with more in the tank for sure. His bread and butter, though, is his hammer curveball, which posts huge spin rates and ridiculous vertical drop. Many high schoolers that are lucky enough to possess electric breaking balls struggle to command them, but Kelly has shown good feel to spot it. There is a lot of work to be done for the tall righty, who currently comes from a high, short release point with mediocre extension, but if the Angels believe in their pitching development, they might be able to unlock a lot by tweaking his mechanics. Very few kids can spin the ball like Kelly can and it's hard to teach something like that, so if he's still in play when the Angels pick at #89, it could be an over slot opportunity. He's committed to UC Irvine, so he may stay in Orange County anyways.
Other options: SS Mikey Romero (Orange Lutheran HS via Menifee, CA), 3B Jacob Reimer (Yucaipa HS, CA), SS Jordan Sprinkle (UC Santa Barbara via Palm Springs, CA), RHP Max Rajcic (UCLA via Fullerton, CA), SS D'Andre Smith (USC via Diamond Bar, CA)

Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Kassius Thomas, Sierra Canyon HS, Chatsworth, CA
Hometown: Northridge, CA. My rank: #103.
Sierra Canyon High School in the San Fernando Valley has not one but two pitchers in its rotation that could go in the top couple of rounds this spring in Jaden Noot and Kassius Thomas. We'll give the Dodgers a shot at Thomas, who has impressed evaluators with a strong spring and is looking at roughly a third round selection, where Los Angeles holds the 105th overall pick. He would likely require an above slot bonus to sign away from a Duke commitment there, but the Dodgers likely would not pull the trigger with their first pick at #40. Thomas is a 6'1" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball that has regularly topped out around 95 this spring, flashing a plus slider as well as a curveball and changeup that really round out his arsenal nicely. He has feel for all four pitches, with a quick arm that portends further velocity gains as he gets stronger. The Northridge native can battle his mechanics at times, losing the strike zone and occasionally getting around his breaking stuff, but the Dodgers develop pitching extremely well and I expect that wouldn't be an issue for their staff. There's some real upside here as a mid-rotation starter, especially if a team like the Dodgers gets their hands on him.
Other options: RHP Jaden Noot (Sierra Canyon HS, CA), RHP Luis Ramirez (Long Beach State via East Los Angeles, CA), RHP Marcus Johnson (Duke via Fontana, CA), RHP/UT Austin Charles (Stockdale HS, Bakersfield, CA), 3B Jacob Reimer (Yucaipa HS, CA)

Oakland Athletics: OF Dylan Beavers, California
Hometown: Paso Robles, CA. My rank: #17.
Dylan Beavers grew up in Paso Robles and attended high school just south of there at Mission College Prep in San Luis Obispo, then turned around and headed north to the East Bay for college. He fits in with recent A's picks like Denzel Clarke, Max Muncy, and Logan Davidson as a strong athlete with a track record of performance. Beavers has consistently tapped above average raw power in from the left side in games with a smooth, loose swing, also showing more patience this spring and getting good pitches to hit. There is some swing and miss in his game due to his lanky, 6'4" frame and some inconsistencies in his swing mechanics, but youth is on his side as he won't turn 21 until August and has that much extra time to develop. A good athlete with a strong arm, he has a chance to stick in center field and become a true five tool player. There is a ton of upside here, especially for a college bat, and his overall game is pretty similar to James Madison's Chase DeLauter. Both are young for the class, tall left handed hitters with unorthodox swing mechanics but big power, and good runners that could be well above average defenders in right field. The main difference, though, is that DeLauter hit .298/.397/.589 in the Cape Cod League while Beavers managed just a .233/.286/.300 line. The A's pick at #19 this year and that's the perfect spot to swipe up the Cal product.
Other options: OF Brock Jones (Stanford via Fresno, CA), OF Payton Brennan (Rocklin HS, CA), C Malcolm Moore (McClatchy HS, Sacramento, CA), LHP Cooper Hjerpe (Oregon State via Capay, CA), OF Joe Lampe (Arizona State via Petaluma, CA)

San Diego Padres: RHP Tyler Bremner, Scripps Ranch HS, San Diego, CA
Hometown: San Diego, CA. My rank: #140.
The Padres love prep talent, especially prep bats, but most of the talent to come out of the San Diego area in this class is on the college side. Tyler Bremner is the top prospect on the prep side coming out of Scripps Ranch High School on the north side of the city, and he could definitely make sense for the Friars around the middle of day two if they want to buy him out of a UC Santa Barbara commitment. Bremner is an athletic 6'1" right hander that stands out more for projection than the present product. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 94, adding a curveball and a changeup. The fastball is his best pitch, as he gets good extension down the mound and the pitch can really jump on hitters. As he adds velocity, it could become a plus pitch in time. His curveball is a bit behind, with slurvy action and not much present bite, while his changeup is an average pitch. The Padres would be buying Bremner's athleticism, which helps him stay extremely loose in his delivery and throw strikes. They'll hope that they can work with the considerable raw talent to sharpen those offspeed pitches and turn him into an impact starting pitcher.
Other options: OF Spencer Jones (Vanderbilt via Encinitas, CA), LHP Brycen Mautz (San Diego via San Diego, CA), OF Anthony Hall (Oregon via San Diego, CA), RHP Derek Diamond (Mississippi via Ramona, CA), RHP Troy Melton (San Diego State via Anaheim, CA)

San Francisco Giants: OF Henry Bolte, Palo Alto HS, CA
Hometown: Palo Alto, CA. My rank: #42.
The Giants already have a proud Palo Alto High School alum on their roster in Joc Pederson, and they could add another in Henry Bolte, a favorite of West Coast scouts (or Oregon SS Josh Kasevich, who figures to go in the second or third round). Bolte has been a slow and steady riser in this class, showing off a wide variety of impact tools that have teams interested as early as the back of the first round. It will be expensive to buy him out of a Texas commitment, but if the Giants want to keep him home, pick #30 seems early enough that it shouldn't require too big of an over slot bonus. He's a big kid at 6'3", showing off plus power when he turns on one but also the ability to go the other way with authority. He's still learning how to apply it as a full package and put loft under his hits, but he's improving and should continue to do so in a player development system as strong as the Giants'. Bolte is also a plus runner that might have a chance to stick in center field if he doesn't slow down as he fills out. There's real upside here as an impact hitter that could hit 20+ home runs a year and steal a few bases while playing good defense.
Other options: LHP Cooper Hjerpe (Oregon State via Capay, CA), OF Brock Jones (Stanford via Fresno, CA), SS Josh Kasevich (Oregon via Palo Alto, CA), OF Dylan Beavers (California via Paso Robles, CA), OF Payton Brennan (Rocklin HS, CA)

Seattle Mariners: RHP JR Ritchie, Bainbridge Island HS, WA
Hometown: Bainbridge Island, WA. My rank: #37.
JR Ritchie probably fits somewhere between the Mariners' first two picks (#21 and #58), but high school pitchers can be very unpredictable and it wouldn't surprise me to see Seattle jump on him early or catch him in the second round and give him a big over slot bonus. They've tended towards college pitchers lately and Gonzaga's Gabriel Hughes or Trystan Vrieling could be also be options in the first and second/third rounds, respectively. But Ritchie might be too good to pass up, especially if he's available in the second round and they have pool space to pay him a multi-million dollar bonus to cross the Puget Sound from Bainbridge Island. The 6'2" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and gets up to around 97, getting some hop on the pitch as well. His best pitch is a plus slider that has been recalled by many of the top prep bats in the class as one of the best breaking balls they'd seen on the showcase circuit, and he also adds a curveball and a changeup that he can locate. Ritchie is ultra athletic and gets down the mound well, with the command to make everything play up. He's also a very smart kid that understands the art of pitching and knows what he needs to do to get better, so he could develop quickly. The one drawback to his profile is his age, as he turns 19 in June, but he also brings the maturity and baseball IQ that comes with an older prospect. He is committed to UCLA and will be eligible as a sophomore in 2024 if he goes that route.
Other options: RHP Gabriel Hughes (Gonzaga via Eagle, ID), RHP Trystan Vrieling (Gonzaga via Kennewick, WA), SS Carter Young (Vanderbilt via Selah, WA), RHP Jackson Cox (Toutle Lake HS, Toutle, WA), OF Jacob Melton (Oregon State via Medford, OR)

Texas Rangers: 3B Jayson Jones, Braswell HS, Little Elm, TX
Hometown: Savannah, TX. My rank: #78.
The Rangers do not pick between #3 and #109, which made this a difficult exercise by ruling out two players I think they would love in Jett Williams (Rockwall-Heath HS) and Peyton Graham (Waxahachie native at Oklahoma). We will go with Jayson Jones, who attends Braswell High School up on US 380 in Little Elm, the far northern tip of the rapidly expanding Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. He's not quite as neat a fit as Williams or Graham because Texas does prefer athleticism and positional flexibility, but they like big power as well and Jones has plenty of it. In fact, the 6'2" slugger generates as much torque as any high schooler in recent memory, with ridiculous strength and bat speed that could blow an old baseball to pieces if the seams were coming loose. That alone makes him an extremely intriguing prospect, though the rest of his offensive game has regressed a little bit. Earlier in his high school career, he showed a relatively balanced approach at the plate and performed well against high end pitching, but starting this past summer he got too power conscious and began pulling off balls and has never quite recovered that approach. Because of that, I'm not convinced he'll ever be able to handle pro pitching and get to his power. The Rangers would be taking a big risk on the Arkansas commit, but you simply cannot develop the kind of raw power he possesses and they could try to work out the rest. They took a similar chance on a falling prep bat last year in Ian Moller and Jones comes into play in the third round for them. On the defensive side, Jones actually moves well for his size and should be able to stick at third base, where his cannon arm would be an asset.
Other options: 2B Jace Jung (Texas Tech via San Antonio, TX), RHP Jacob Meador (Dallas Baptist via Burleson, TX), OF Jace Grady (Dallas Baptist via Elgin, TX), RHP Chase Shores (Legacy HS, Midland, TX), OF Brenner Cox (Rock Hill HS, Prosper, TX)