First 5 rounds: Kyle Wright (1-5), Drew Waters (2-41), Freddy Tarnok (3-80), Troy Bacon (4-110), Bruce Zimmerman (5-140)
Also notable: Landon Hughes (7-200), Hagen Owenby (12-350), Cade Cavalli (29-860), Chris McMahon (33-980)
The Braves already have arguably baseball's top farm system, and that's no surprise because they usually draft well. This year was no different, at least with their first few picks, after which they started to take a bunch of players I'd never heard of. They employed an interesting bonus strategy, drafting low-cost seniors from rounds 5-10 and saving almost $1.2 million total on those six picks. The Braves develop pitching better than almost anybody else, so it's no surprise they leaned pitching in this draft, though they did take a high school outfielder in the second round, a college third baseman in the sixth, and a college shortstop in the ninth. Another interesting thing was that each of their first nine picks come from the southeast, all within the states of Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
1-5: RHP Kyle Wright (my rank: 2)
The Braves must have been ecstatic when Wright fell past the Twins, Reds, Padres, and Rays in the first four picks. The Vanderbilt ace has one of the best combinations of upside and floor in this draft, and with the way the Braves develop pitching, he has a real chance to be an ace. Wright throws his fastball in the mid 90's, and he comes in with one of the deadliest slider/curveball combinations in the draft. The curve in particular has filthy, two-plane break, and all three pitches could be plus at the major league level. His changeup is coming along and shows promise, so not only does he have ace upside, but he has a relatively high floor as a power reliever. On the downside, Wright didn't quite dominate the SEC the way teams wanted him to this year (5-6, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 121/31 K/BB), though he did rack up the K's. He grew up a Braves fan, and he signed for $7 million, which is nearly $1.3 million over slot.
2-41: OF Drew Waters (my rank: 21)
This is a great pick. Waters was arguably my favorite player (when normalized to general consensus) in this draft, coming in with easy first round upside. He's a risky pick as a high schooler, but so were the similarly tooled up Austin Beck and Jo Adell in the top ten picks, so I would have gladly taken Waters 20 picks higher. He's a great athlete and should be able to stick in center field, which takes the pressure off his bat, even though I think the bat is special. A switch hitter, he shows great bat speed from both sides of the plate, though his two swings aren't exactly the same. From the right side, he's more of a contact hitter, spraying line drives to all fields with a clean, quick swing. From the left side, he is more raw and has more moving parts, but he also has more loft and can launch the ball a mile. I think he has 20-20 upside with a chance to hit for average as well once the minor swing and miss issues are ironed out. Another local guy, Waters comes from the Atlanta area, giving them back to back (presumably) Braves fans with their first two picks. Waters signed for $1.5 million, which is actually $174,600 below slot, and I think that could be the steal of the draft here in the second round.
3-80: RHP Freddy Tarnok (unranked)
I'll admit to not knowing much about Tarnok before the draft, as he missed MLB.com's top 200 and ranked #170 on the Baseball America 500. I watched some video, and he's an athletic, projectable 6'4" right hander out of the Tampa area, with a terrible delivery that he still manages to reach the mid 90's from. Tarnok has a sharp curve with hard break, though it's inconsistent and the break is fairly early. Tarnok is a project, but he has high upside once the Braves fix that awful delivery. He signed for over $1.4 million, coming in at $736,000 over slot.
4-110: RHP Troy Bacon (unranked)
Bacon is a JuCo right hander with a projectable frame and easy low 90's heat and a good breaking ball, but he's already a reliever so his stuff has already taken that "jump forward" that comes with the transition from starting to relief. He could be a solid seventh inning guy, but I have heard negative remarks about his attitude. Bacon signed for $400,000, which is $87,400 below slot.
33-980: RHP Chris McMahon (my rank: 92)
McMahon won't sign here, and will instead attend Miami, where he could turn himself into a high pick. McMahon, a Pennsylvania high schooler, has a fairly unexciting tools package, as he throws in the low 90's with some movement and a decent arsenal which could help him start in the major leagues. Essentially, he knows how to pitch and has the tools to succeed, so he just needs to put them to work. He is likely a #3 or #4 starter at the major league level if all goes right.
Others: 7th rounder Landon Hughes pitched two years at JuCo powerhouse Wallace State, which also produced Craig Kimbrel, before transferring to Georgia Southern and spending two years as a vital member of their bullpen. Combining his two years in Statesboro, the projectable, 6'5" righty went 11-4 with a 2.49 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP, striking out 113 batters and walking 30 in 105 innings. 12th rounder Hagen Owenby had a successful three year career at East Tennessee State, serving as the catcher and slashing .347/.426/.584 with 37 home runs in 163 games. 29th rounder Cade Cavalli is a high-upside high school pitcher from Oklahoma, one who only came to pitching recently. In the 29th round, it's highly unlikely that he signs, and instead he'll likely head to Oklahoma. He can hit the mid 90's despite his lack of experience pitching, and he could emerge from three years in Norman as a high pick.
Friday, June 30, 2017
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Texas Rangers
First 5 rounds: Bubba Thompson (1-26), Chris Seise (1-29), Hans Crouse (2-66), Matt Whatley (3-104), Ryan Dease (4-134), Jake Latz (5-164)
Also notable: Noah Bremer (6-194), Tanner Gardner (9-284), Blaine Knight (29-884), Jordan Anderson (40-1214)
Everybody knows the Rangers love upside and athleticism, and that's exactly what they got here. They went the high school route with their first three picks, and the three they picked fit the upside/risk bill well. Throughout the draft, they mixed high school and college, hitters and pitchers, not leaning in any particular direction.
1-26: OF Bubba Thompson (my rank: 24)
Thompson exactly matches the stereotypical Rangers pick. He's a high school centerfielder from Mobile, Alabama with a cannon arm and the projection to be an above average hitter, though he is raw after splitting his time between baseball and football. As a quarterback, he had scholarship offers from Tennessee and Ole Miss, so you can tell the kind of athleticism we're talking here with Thompson. He doesn't have the most powerful bat, but he should be able to produce 15-20 home runs per year while getting on base at a good clip and stealing more than a few bags. The five-tool upside is there, but as a high schooler, he carries some significant risk, even if the risk sin't as high as with a guy like Quentin Holmes or Jo Adell. Thompson signed for $2.1 million, which is $345,100 under slot.
1-29: SS Chris Seise (my rank: 56)
Seise is a player in a similar mold as Thompson. An athletic shortstop from a high school near Orlando, Seise made significant improvements with his offense this year and could be an average hitter in the big leagues. Seise is good enough defensively to play shortstop for now, but he'll have to work to remain there. He could be a similar player to current Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus, with more power but less speed. Seise signed for $2 million, which is $238,900 under slot.
2-66: RHP Hans Crouse (my rank: 35)
Hans Crouse is basically the pitching version of Thompson and Seise. The 6'5" right hander is very skinny and has lots of room for more good weight, but he already throws in the mid 90's with a breaking ball that could be a plus pitch in time. On the flip side, he has below average command, and the breaking ball is somewhat stuck between a curveball and a slider. When he keeps it down in the zone, it has hard slider break and can miss bats, but when it's up, it's very hittable. Crouse also has a lower arm slot and short arm action, which makes me believe he may never have average command, and that it might be tough for him to cut it as a starter. I see him as a reliever, albeit one with high upside that could hit 100 MPH in the bullpen down the road. Crouse signed for $1.45 million, which is $523,500 above slot.
3-104: C Matt Whatley (my rank: 89)
Whatley, a college catcher from Oral Roberts University, is a very different prospect from the first three players. He's a high-floor catcher who projects as a back-up at the major league level, and he's good enough defensively to stick back there. After two big seasons as a freshman and as a sophomore at Oral Roberts (.359/.446/.545 combined), but had a tough summer on the Cape (.198/.271/.279) and slumped somewhat as a junior (.302/.446/.509). A solid defender, he has plus power potential but may struggle with contact at the next level because his head changes level with his swing. Whatley signed for an at-slot bonus of $517,100.
5-164: LHP Jake Latz (unranked)
Now here is an interesting pick. Latz missed his freshman year at LSU with elbow issues, then pitched just 8.1 innings during his sophomore year in 2016 before transferring to Kent State for his junior year. Because of NCAA transfer rules, he couldn't pitch this year, but in his bullpen sessions, he's shown the potential to be a starter going through the minor leagues with his full arsenal. He's a 6'2" lefty, and teams love left handed pitchers. Latz signed for $386,100, which is $97,600 above slot.
29-884: RHP Blaine Knight (my rank: 61)
Knight is a draft-eligible sophomore at Arkansas, who has really elevated his stock with two solid years for the Razorbacks, going 10-5 with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, striking out 142 in 139 innings. Knight probably won't sign here, but he's a very skinny, 6'3" righty with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal, though none of his secondaries grade out as plus. He has a chance to be a big league starter, but he'll have to add weight and prove his durability.
Others: 4th rounder Ryan Dease is a high school pitcher from Florida, one who throws his fastball around 90 but has the athleticism to add velocity. He's a high risk, high ceiling pick with his lack of secondaries, and he hasn't signed yet. 6th rounder Noah Bremer comes from the University of Washington, where he had a very successful three year career, going 16-11 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, striking out 205 in 284 innings. He's hard to peg going forward, coming in with a fastball around 90, but he brings a solid curveball and decent command. 9th rounder Tanner Gardner is another familiar name for college baseball fans, having been a big part of Texas Tech's run to the College World Series in 2016 (.379/.484/.549, 3 HR), but wasn't quite as great in 2017 (.305/.395/.485, 5 HR). He projects best as a fourth or fifth outfielder going forward. 40th rounder Jordan Anderson almost certainly won't sign and will instead attend Mississippi State, where he could blossom into a high pick in 2020. Anderson has all the tools, but he has struggled to put them together. His bat isn't in the zone for long and he may struggle to hit for contact even in college, but hopefully the higher level coaching can steer him right.
Also notable: Noah Bremer (6-194), Tanner Gardner (9-284), Blaine Knight (29-884), Jordan Anderson (40-1214)
Everybody knows the Rangers love upside and athleticism, and that's exactly what they got here. They went the high school route with their first three picks, and the three they picked fit the upside/risk bill well. Throughout the draft, they mixed high school and college, hitters and pitchers, not leaning in any particular direction.
1-26: OF Bubba Thompson (my rank: 24)
Thompson exactly matches the stereotypical Rangers pick. He's a high school centerfielder from Mobile, Alabama with a cannon arm and the projection to be an above average hitter, though he is raw after splitting his time between baseball and football. As a quarterback, he had scholarship offers from Tennessee and Ole Miss, so you can tell the kind of athleticism we're talking here with Thompson. He doesn't have the most powerful bat, but he should be able to produce 15-20 home runs per year while getting on base at a good clip and stealing more than a few bags. The five-tool upside is there, but as a high schooler, he carries some significant risk, even if the risk sin't as high as with a guy like Quentin Holmes or Jo Adell. Thompson signed for $2.1 million, which is $345,100 under slot.
1-29: SS Chris Seise (my rank: 56)
Seise is a player in a similar mold as Thompson. An athletic shortstop from a high school near Orlando, Seise made significant improvements with his offense this year and could be an average hitter in the big leagues. Seise is good enough defensively to play shortstop for now, but he'll have to work to remain there. He could be a similar player to current Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus, with more power but less speed. Seise signed for $2 million, which is $238,900 under slot.
2-66: RHP Hans Crouse (my rank: 35)
Hans Crouse is basically the pitching version of Thompson and Seise. The 6'5" right hander is very skinny and has lots of room for more good weight, but he already throws in the mid 90's with a breaking ball that could be a plus pitch in time. On the flip side, he has below average command, and the breaking ball is somewhat stuck between a curveball and a slider. When he keeps it down in the zone, it has hard slider break and can miss bats, but when it's up, it's very hittable. Crouse also has a lower arm slot and short arm action, which makes me believe he may never have average command, and that it might be tough for him to cut it as a starter. I see him as a reliever, albeit one with high upside that could hit 100 MPH in the bullpen down the road. Crouse signed for $1.45 million, which is $523,500 above slot.
3-104: C Matt Whatley (my rank: 89)
Whatley, a college catcher from Oral Roberts University, is a very different prospect from the first three players. He's a high-floor catcher who projects as a back-up at the major league level, and he's good enough defensively to stick back there. After two big seasons as a freshman and as a sophomore at Oral Roberts (.359/.446/.545 combined), but had a tough summer on the Cape (.198/.271/.279) and slumped somewhat as a junior (.302/.446/.509). A solid defender, he has plus power potential but may struggle with contact at the next level because his head changes level with his swing. Whatley signed for an at-slot bonus of $517,100.
5-164: LHP Jake Latz (unranked)
Now here is an interesting pick. Latz missed his freshman year at LSU with elbow issues, then pitched just 8.1 innings during his sophomore year in 2016 before transferring to Kent State for his junior year. Because of NCAA transfer rules, he couldn't pitch this year, but in his bullpen sessions, he's shown the potential to be a starter going through the minor leagues with his full arsenal. He's a 6'2" lefty, and teams love left handed pitchers. Latz signed for $386,100, which is $97,600 above slot.
29-884: RHP Blaine Knight (my rank: 61)
Knight is a draft-eligible sophomore at Arkansas, who has really elevated his stock with two solid years for the Razorbacks, going 10-5 with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, striking out 142 in 139 innings. Knight probably won't sign here, but he's a very skinny, 6'3" righty with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal, though none of his secondaries grade out as plus. He has a chance to be a big league starter, but he'll have to add weight and prove his durability.
Others: 4th rounder Ryan Dease is a high school pitcher from Florida, one who throws his fastball around 90 but has the athleticism to add velocity. He's a high risk, high ceiling pick with his lack of secondaries, and he hasn't signed yet. 6th rounder Noah Bremer comes from the University of Washington, where he had a very successful three year career, going 16-11 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, striking out 205 in 284 innings. He's hard to peg going forward, coming in with a fastball around 90, but he brings a solid curveball and decent command. 9th rounder Tanner Gardner is another familiar name for college baseball fans, having been a big part of Texas Tech's run to the College World Series in 2016 (.379/.484/.549, 3 HR), but wasn't quite as great in 2017 (.305/.395/.485, 5 HR). He projects best as a fourth or fifth outfielder going forward. 40th rounder Jordan Anderson almost certainly won't sign and will instead attend Mississippi State, where he could blossom into a high pick in 2020. Anderson has all the tools, but he has struggled to put them together. His bat isn't in the zone for long and he may struggle to hit for contact even in college, but hopefully the higher level coaching can steer him right.
2017 Draft Review: Seattle Mariners
First 5 rounds: Evan White (1-17), Sam Carlson (2-55), Wyatt Mills (3-93), Seth Elledge (4-123), David Banuelos (5-153)
Also notable: Oliver Jaskie (6-183), Billy Cooke (8-243), J.P. Sears (11-333)
In my opinion, this is a pretty mediocre draft class for the Mariners, as there is really only one pick in here I actively like. Interestingly, Seattle spurned the big name programs in favor of small ones, drafting just one player from the SEC (Kentucky), one from the ACC (Boston College), and none from the Big 12. The M's were notoriously bad about developing hitting under old GM Jack Zduriencik, with super prospects Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero, as well as guys like Justin Smoak, Alex Jackson, D.J. Peterson, and Mike Zunino struggling to reach their potential or completely busting. I'm not sure how much the pipeline development team has changed under new GM Jerry DiPoto, but the Mariners can't afford to continue to fail with hitting prospects.
1-17: 1B Evan White (my rank: 32)
I knew Evan White was going to go in the top 20 picks, but I wasn't a big fan of his. White has a long, flat swing that doesn't generate much power, and his 10.1% walk rate means his offensive production will be dependent on his batting average. That said, White is a very competent hitter who slashed .373/.453/.637 with 10 home runs while playing SEC competition this year, and he is an excellent defender at first base. He's actually so good around the bag at first that teams think he could be a solid center fielder or at least a corner outfielder if his bat isn't enough to hold him on first base. In my opinion, White could be an average big league hitter and possibly win Gold Gloves at first base. That's a solid projection, but I'd want more in the middle of the first round. White signed for just over $3.1 million, which is $208,200 below slot.
2-55: RHP Sam Carlson (my rank: 15)
Carlson is the one Mariners pick that I really like. He is a mid-first round talent who slipped because of signability, one who could legitimately become a #2 starter or an ace. He's a 6'4" righty with a mid 90's fastball, a power slider, and a very good changeup for a high schooler, so he has the potential for three above average or even plus pitches in the majors. While he's not guaranteed to remain a starter, he has a good chance because of his athleticism, full arsenal, and above average command. Carlson, from a high school in Minnesota, has fewer miles on his arm, and he signed for $2 million, which is $793,100 over slot.
4-153: RHP Seth Elledge (unranked)
Elledge spent three years in Dallas Baptist University's bullpen, including two as the closer. Over his 54 appearances for the Patriots, he put together a dominant career, finishing with a 2.21 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and 84 strikeouts in 69.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball guy that will start you off with a mid 90's fastball and finish you with that power breaking ball, though the lack of hard bite on his curve will keep him from being too impactful as a reliever in the future. Elledge signed for $400,000, which is $28,900 below slot.
6-183: LHP Oliver Jaskie (my rank: 149)
Jaskie is a funky left hander that is a good get here in the 6th round, coming in with a high 80's fastball, a mediocre curve, and a great changeup. He had success as a starter for Michigan during his sophomore and junior seasons (15-6, 3.51 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) and struck out 119 batters in 93 innings this year, but he will almost certainly be a reliever in pro ball. There, he could add a tick of velocity to his fastball and either sharpen his curve or just dump it to go fastball-changeup, and being left handed is always a plus for a pitcher. He dominated as a starter on the Cape this year, going 2-0 with a 0.99 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over six games (five starts), striking out 27 and walking just seven in 27.1 innings. Jaskie signed an at-slot deal of $245,600.
Others: 3rd rounder Wyatt Mills was an interesting pick, as he went unranked on my top 150, MLB.com's top 200, and on the BA 500, so I really don't know much about him. It looks like he had a very successful, four year career in Gonzaga's bullpen, putting up a 2.47 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while striking out 109 over 109.1 innings. He had his best year as a senior, dropping his ERA to 1.79 and his WHIP to 1.09 while putting up a ridiculous 58/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.1 innings. That's all I have on the 6'3" righty, who signed for a full $454,800 under slot to make up for some of that money that went to Carlson. 8th rounder Billy Cooke played three years at Coastal Carolina and improved every year, finishing by slashing .353/.479/.587 with ten home runs and 21 stolen bases as a junior this year. The undersized outfielder will take his contact/speed combo up through the pros. 11th rounder J.P. Sears followed up two so-so years at the Citadel from 2015-2016 (10-12, 4.79 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) with a big breakout year in 2017, going 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. He struck out 142 batters in 95.1 innings, which was enough to make him this year's NCAA strikeout king pre-tournament (though Alex Lange, Alex Faedo, Brendan McKay, and Tyler Holton passed him during the tournament) while the Citadel watched from the sidelines. Sears isn't the hardest thrower in the world with a fastball that maxes out at 90, but he mixes it well enough with a slider and a changeup to get strikeouts by the boatload. His command will help him play up as he moves through the pro ranks, but he may be forced into a relief role due to his overall lack of stuff.
Also notable: Oliver Jaskie (6-183), Billy Cooke (8-243), J.P. Sears (11-333)
In my opinion, this is a pretty mediocre draft class for the Mariners, as there is really only one pick in here I actively like. Interestingly, Seattle spurned the big name programs in favor of small ones, drafting just one player from the SEC (Kentucky), one from the ACC (Boston College), and none from the Big 12. The M's were notoriously bad about developing hitting under old GM Jack Zduriencik, with super prospects Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero, as well as guys like Justin Smoak, Alex Jackson, D.J. Peterson, and Mike Zunino struggling to reach their potential or completely busting. I'm not sure how much the pipeline development team has changed under new GM Jerry DiPoto, but the Mariners can't afford to continue to fail with hitting prospects.
1-17: 1B Evan White (my rank: 32)
I knew Evan White was going to go in the top 20 picks, but I wasn't a big fan of his. White has a long, flat swing that doesn't generate much power, and his 10.1% walk rate means his offensive production will be dependent on his batting average. That said, White is a very competent hitter who slashed .373/.453/.637 with 10 home runs while playing SEC competition this year, and he is an excellent defender at first base. He's actually so good around the bag at first that teams think he could be a solid center fielder or at least a corner outfielder if his bat isn't enough to hold him on first base. In my opinion, White could be an average big league hitter and possibly win Gold Gloves at first base. That's a solid projection, but I'd want more in the middle of the first round. White signed for just over $3.1 million, which is $208,200 below slot.
2-55: RHP Sam Carlson (my rank: 15)
Carlson is the one Mariners pick that I really like. He is a mid-first round talent who slipped because of signability, one who could legitimately become a #2 starter or an ace. He's a 6'4" righty with a mid 90's fastball, a power slider, and a very good changeup for a high schooler, so he has the potential for three above average or even plus pitches in the majors. While he's not guaranteed to remain a starter, he has a good chance because of his athleticism, full arsenal, and above average command. Carlson, from a high school in Minnesota, has fewer miles on his arm, and he signed for $2 million, which is $793,100 over slot.
4-153: RHP Seth Elledge (unranked)
Elledge spent three years in Dallas Baptist University's bullpen, including two as the closer. Over his 54 appearances for the Patriots, he put together a dominant career, finishing with a 2.21 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and 84 strikeouts in 69.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball guy that will start you off with a mid 90's fastball and finish you with that power breaking ball, though the lack of hard bite on his curve will keep him from being too impactful as a reliever in the future. Elledge signed for $400,000, which is $28,900 below slot.
6-183: LHP Oliver Jaskie (my rank: 149)
Jaskie is a funky left hander that is a good get here in the 6th round, coming in with a high 80's fastball, a mediocre curve, and a great changeup. He had success as a starter for Michigan during his sophomore and junior seasons (15-6, 3.51 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) and struck out 119 batters in 93 innings this year, but he will almost certainly be a reliever in pro ball. There, he could add a tick of velocity to his fastball and either sharpen his curve or just dump it to go fastball-changeup, and being left handed is always a plus for a pitcher. He dominated as a starter on the Cape this year, going 2-0 with a 0.99 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over six games (five starts), striking out 27 and walking just seven in 27.1 innings. Jaskie signed an at-slot deal of $245,600.
Others: 3rd rounder Wyatt Mills was an interesting pick, as he went unranked on my top 150, MLB.com's top 200, and on the BA 500, so I really don't know much about him. It looks like he had a very successful, four year career in Gonzaga's bullpen, putting up a 2.47 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while striking out 109 over 109.1 innings. He had his best year as a senior, dropping his ERA to 1.79 and his WHIP to 1.09 while putting up a ridiculous 58/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.1 innings. That's all I have on the 6'3" righty, who signed for a full $454,800 under slot to make up for some of that money that went to Carlson. 8th rounder Billy Cooke played three years at Coastal Carolina and improved every year, finishing by slashing .353/.479/.587 with ten home runs and 21 stolen bases as a junior this year. The undersized outfielder will take his contact/speed combo up through the pros. 11th rounder J.P. Sears followed up two so-so years at the Citadel from 2015-2016 (10-12, 4.79 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) with a big breakout year in 2017, going 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. He struck out 142 batters in 95.1 innings, which was enough to make him this year's NCAA strikeout king pre-tournament (though Alex Lange, Alex Faedo, Brendan McKay, and Tyler Holton passed him during the tournament) while the Citadel watched from the sidelines. Sears isn't the hardest thrower in the world with a fastball that maxes out at 90, but he mixes it well enough with a slider and a changeup to get strikeouts by the boatload. His command will help him play up as he moves through the pro ranks, but he may be forced into a relief role due to his overall lack of stuff.
Tuesday, June 27, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Oakland Athletics
First 5 rounds: Austin Beck (1-6), Kevin Merrell (CBA-33), Greg Deichmann (2-43), Nick Allen (3-81), Will Toffey (4-111), Santi Sanchez (5-141)
Also notable: Parker Dunshee (7-201), Brian Howard (8-231), Jared Poche (9-261), Garrett Mitchell (14-411), Heath Donica (21-621), Hunter Hargrove (25-741)
The A's had a pretty interesting draft, reaching for some players (in my opinion) but also making some good selections. As the draft wore on, they took on a lot of big name college players, which is why you see so many in the "also notable" section, which doesn't even get all of them. As always, the A's placed a premium on guys who know how to get on base, and that should be expected now 15 years after the Moneyball draft.
1-6: OF Austin Beck (my rank: 8)
Beck, a North Carolina high school outfielder, was on nobody's radar at the beginning of the season, but he hit his way not only into the first round, but into the top ten picks, literally right out of the gate. His plus-plus bat speed generates huge power from the right side, and combined with his overall athleticism, he has one of the highest ceilings of his whole draft. If this draft is going to produce any Mike Trouts, Bryce Harpers, or Kris Bryants, Beck has a good chance to be the guy. That said, he is very raw as a player and there is a lot of swing and miss in his game, so the risk is extremely high. Basically, Beck could be Mike Trout, or he could never make the majors. I guess we'll just have to sit back and watch. Beck signed an at-slot bonus of just over $5.3 million.
CBA-33: SS/CF Kevin Merrell (my rank: 75)
Yeah, I don't love this pick. There are a lot of people who really like Merrell, but I just am not one of them, because I don't think any of his power will translate to the next level and he really profiles as a fourth outfielder in my opinion. That said, the USF star's supporters will point to his excellent .384/.464/.569 slash line this season, coupled with seven home runs and 19 stolen bases for the Bulls. He is one of the fastest players in this draft and possibly the fastest in the entire college crop, and his solid bat to ball skills give him a high floor. If he can stick as a shortstop, he has a Jose Reyes ceiling, but his defense at short is so-so and he may have to move to centerfield, where he will be above average defensively. Merrell signed for $1.8 million, which is $233,500 below slot.
2-43: OF Greg Deichmann (my rank: 68)
I also don't love this pick, but I'm more willing to hop on the Deichmann train at pick 43 than I am on the Merrell train at pick 33. Deichmann was decent for LSU in 2016 (.288/.346/.513, 11 HR), but he turned down the Twins in the 26th round. That turned out to be a great decision, as he slashed .309/.418/.583 with 19 home runs for the Tigers this year, showcasing an advanced power bat with desirable leadership skills. There is still a lot of swing and miss in his game (19% strikeout rate), but he does walk a lot (15.8%) and has improved his plate discipline significantly this year. He is on the older side for a college junior, having turned 22 in May, but he can be a 20 homer bat as a corner outfielder down the road. Deichmann has not signed, but it's hard to see him holding out for too long.
3-81: SS Nick Allen (my rank: 23)
Nick Allen is awesome, and if signability wasn't an issue, he could have gone 50 picks higher, or more. On talent alone, Allen is an easy first rounder, perhaps a top ten pick, but he stands just 5'8" with a skinny build, so teams were understandably scared off by his size. However, as I said, he's just awesome. His defensive skills at shortstop are unmatched in this draft, as he shows both incredible range and great arm strength, so there could easily be Gold Gloves in his future. At the plate, he shows very good contact ability, though his power will likely always be well below average due to his size. However, I think he could improve to simply below average power and knock ten home runs per season in the bigs if he can add loft to his swing and stop leaking his power over his front foot. Even without power, he can be an extremely valuable player because of his defense and hitting ability. To top it all off, area scouts absolutely love his character, leadership, intensity, and knowledge of the game. Guys like Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve have succeeded in the majors, so Allen could too. I comped him to Omar Vizquel; how does that sound? Allen hasn't signed yet, and if he does, it will certainly be well over slot.
4-111: 3B Will Toffey (my rank: 95)
Toffey is another one of the more interesting players in the draft. A redshirt junior, Toffey already turned 22 in December, and after two unspectacular seasons at Vanderbilt, he wasn't the hottest name heading into this draft. Though he doesn't have any big tools, he just quietly and steadily hit his way up draft boards, and finished the season slashing .354/.475/.602 with 12 home runs for the Commodores. He shows average to slightly above average power, and average bat, and good defense at third base, but his offensive tools should play up due to his advanced approach at the plate (18.3% walk rate to 11.5% strikeout rate). I really like Toffey, and with his clean swing, I comped him to Chase Headley. He signed an at-slot bonus of $482,600.
14-411: CF Garrett Mitchell (my rank: 38)
Here in the 14th round, Mitchell probably won't sign, especially if the A's can get Nick Allen. However, I'm a big fan of Mitchell, more so than most. He is one of the faster players in this draft, and he should have no problem sticking as an above average centerfielder. At the plate, he has a long, flat swing, but he keeps the barrel of the bat in the zone for a very long time, and the long swing worries me much less because of that. His swing actually reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence, and Mitchell could be a similar player.
Others: 7th rounder Parker Dunshee kicked off a streak of three straight big name senior pitchers from big name programs, as Dunshee has been a stalwart in the Wake Forest rotation for two years and a vital member of its pitching staff for four years. Over the four years, he went 28-10 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 78 games (36 starts), striking out 322 batters over 318.1 innings. He was also great on the Cape back in 2015 (3-2, 2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP). 8th rounder Brian Howard comes from TCU, where he had a similar four year career to Dunshee (26-5, 3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP over 62 games [40 starts]). Howard is a massive, 6'9" right hander with a classic back-end starter projection. 9th rounder Jared Poche was a teammate of Deichmann's at LSU, where Poche has become the school's all time wins leader after going 39-12 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 72 games (69 starts). He doesn't have great stuff, and he'll have to fight to be a #5 starter, but few can match his feel for pitching and ability to work with what he has. He actually had an amazing start to his season that would look really good here, but college baseball does an awful job of keeping stats and LSU doesn't have a game log listed for Poche. I could go through each of his first starts manually by sifting through their box scores but I can just tell you he was untouchable at the beginning of the season. 21st rounder Heath Donica pitched two years for Sam Houston State, where he went 19-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 35 games (32 starts), though he did turn 23 in May. 25th rounder Hunter Hargrove comes from another big name program, Texas Tech, and he had his best season in 2017 by slashing .343/.423/.535 with five home runs for the Red Raiders. It will be tough for him to move up as a first baseman with below average power, but he could find a home in an outfield corner as well.
Also notable: Parker Dunshee (7-201), Brian Howard (8-231), Jared Poche (9-261), Garrett Mitchell (14-411), Heath Donica (21-621), Hunter Hargrove (25-741)
The A's had a pretty interesting draft, reaching for some players (in my opinion) but also making some good selections. As the draft wore on, they took on a lot of big name college players, which is why you see so many in the "also notable" section, which doesn't even get all of them. As always, the A's placed a premium on guys who know how to get on base, and that should be expected now 15 years after the Moneyball draft.
1-6: OF Austin Beck (my rank: 8)
Beck, a North Carolina high school outfielder, was on nobody's radar at the beginning of the season, but he hit his way not only into the first round, but into the top ten picks, literally right out of the gate. His plus-plus bat speed generates huge power from the right side, and combined with his overall athleticism, he has one of the highest ceilings of his whole draft. If this draft is going to produce any Mike Trouts, Bryce Harpers, or Kris Bryants, Beck has a good chance to be the guy. That said, he is very raw as a player and there is a lot of swing and miss in his game, so the risk is extremely high. Basically, Beck could be Mike Trout, or he could never make the majors. I guess we'll just have to sit back and watch. Beck signed an at-slot bonus of just over $5.3 million.
CBA-33: SS/CF Kevin Merrell (my rank: 75)
Yeah, I don't love this pick. There are a lot of people who really like Merrell, but I just am not one of them, because I don't think any of his power will translate to the next level and he really profiles as a fourth outfielder in my opinion. That said, the USF star's supporters will point to his excellent .384/.464/.569 slash line this season, coupled with seven home runs and 19 stolen bases for the Bulls. He is one of the fastest players in this draft and possibly the fastest in the entire college crop, and his solid bat to ball skills give him a high floor. If he can stick as a shortstop, he has a Jose Reyes ceiling, but his defense at short is so-so and he may have to move to centerfield, where he will be above average defensively. Merrell signed for $1.8 million, which is $233,500 below slot.
2-43: OF Greg Deichmann (my rank: 68)
I also don't love this pick, but I'm more willing to hop on the Deichmann train at pick 43 than I am on the Merrell train at pick 33. Deichmann was decent for LSU in 2016 (.288/.346/.513, 11 HR), but he turned down the Twins in the 26th round. That turned out to be a great decision, as he slashed .309/.418/.583 with 19 home runs for the Tigers this year, showcasing an advanced power bat with desirable leadership skills. There is still a lot of swing and miss in his game (19% strikeout rate), but he does walk a lot (15.8%) and has improved his plate discipline significantly this year. He is on the older side for a college junior, having turned 22 in May, but he can be a 20 homer bat as a corner outfielder down the road. Deichmann has not signed, but it's hard to see him holding out for too long.
3-81: SS Nick Allen (my rank: 23)
Nick Allen is awesome, and if signability wasn't an issue, he could have gone 50 picks higher, or more. On talent alone, Allen is an easy first rounder, perhaps a top ten pick, but he stands just 5'8" with a skinny build, so teams were understandably scared off by his size. However, as I said, he's just awesome. His defensive skills at shortstop are unmatched in this draft, as he shows both incredible range and great arm strength, so there could easily be Gold Gloves in his future. At the plate, he shows very good contact ability, though his power will likely always be well below average due to his size. However, I think he could improve to simply below average power and knock ten home runs per season in the bigs if he can add loft to his swing and stop leaking his power over his front foot. Even without power, he can be an extremely valuable player because of his defense and hitting ability. To top it all off, area scouts absolutely love his character, leadership, intensity, and knowledge of the game. Guys like Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve have succeeded in the majors, so Allen could too. I comped him to Omar Vizquel; how does that sound? Allen hasn't signed yet, and if he does, it will certainly be well over slot.
4-111: 3B Will Toffey (my rank: 95)
Toffey is another one of the more interesting players in the draft. A redshirt junior, Toffey already turned 22 in December, and after two unspectacular seasons at Vanderbilt, he wasn't the hottest name heading into this draft. Though he doesn't have any big tools, he just quietly and steadily hit his way up draft boards, and finished the season slashing .354/.475/.602 with 12 home runs for the Commodores. He shows average to slightly above average power, and average bat, and good defense at third base, but his offensive tools should play up due to his advanced approach at the plate (18.3% walk rate to 11.5% strikeout rate). I really like Toffey, and with his clean swing, I comped him to Chase Headley. He signed an at-slot bonus of $482,600.
14-411: CF Garrett Mitchell (my rank: 38)
Here in the 14th round, Mitchell probably won't sign, especially if the A's can get Nick Allen. However, I'm a big fan of Mitchell, more so than most. He is one of the faster players in this draft, and he should have no problem sticking as an above average centerfielder. At the plate, he has a long, flat swing, but he keeps the barrel of the bat in the zone for a very long time, and the long swing worries me much less because of that. His swing actually reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence, and Mitchell could be a similar player.
Others: 7th rounder Parker Dunshee kicked off a streak of three straight big name senior pitchers from big name programs, as Dunshee has been a stalwart in the Wake Forest rotation for two years and a vital member of its pitching staff for four years. Over the four years, he went 28-10 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 78 games (36 starts), striking out 322 batters over 318.1 innings. He was also great on the Cape back in 2015 (3-2, 2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP). 8th rounder Brian Howard comes from TCU, where he had a similar four year career to Dunshee (26-5, 3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP over 62 games [40 starts]). Howard is a massive, 6'9" right hander with a classic back-end starter projection. 9th rounder Jared Poche was a teammate of Deichmann's at LSU, where Poche has become the school's all time wins leader after going 39-12 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 72 games (69 starts). He doesn't have great stuff, and he'll have to fight to be a #5 starter, but few can match his feel for pitching and ability to work with what he has. He actually had an amazing start to his season that would look really good here, but college baseball does an awful job of keeping stats and LSU doesn't have a game log listed for Poche. I could go through each of his first starts manually by sifting through their box scores but I can just tell you he was untouchable at the beginning of the season. 21st rounder Heath Donica pitched two years for Sam Houston State, where he went 19-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 35 games (32 starts), though he did turn 23 in May. 25th rounder Hunter Hargrove comes from another big name program, Texas Tech, and he had his best season in 2017 by slashing .343/.423/.535 with five home runs for the Red Raiders. It will be tough for him to move up as a first baseman with below average power, but he could find a home in an outfield corner as well.
Monday, June 26, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Houston Astros
First 5 rounds: J.B. Bukauskas (1-15), Joe Perez (2-53), Corbin Martin (2-56), J.J. Matijevic (CBB-75), Tyler Ivey (3-91), Peter Solomon (4-121), Nathan Perry (5-151)
Also notable: Jake Adams (6-181), Corey Julks (8-241), Kyle Serrano (10-301), Trey Cumbie (38-1141)
The Astros had five of the first 91 picks, and they used them to get a lot of big name players. They also picked up a lot of local guys, including two players from the University of Houston, one each from Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Lamar, and a pair of Texas community college players, as well as two players from neighboring Oklahoma and one from Louisiana. I like the mix of players the Astros got here, and with many of their top prospects graduating or getting traded away, they did a good job of re-injecting talent into the system.
1-15: RHP J.B. Bukauskas (my rank: 6)
I got to the chance to play against Bukauskas in high school (he threw a shutout), though I did not get an at bat that game. The UNC ace was a virtual lock for the top ten picks, but he slipped right at the end because of a couple of tough starts at the end of the season, one of which I attended. This is a great pick in the middle of the first round, as Bukauskas has ace potential (he's been compared to Sonny Gray) but could easily fall back on a bullpen job if that doesn't work. Even with those two tough starts at the end, he had an excellent junior season, going 9-1 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, striking out 116 in 92.2 innings. His fastball sits in the mid 90's to upper 90's with running action, and his power mid 80's to upper 80's slider is one of the best pitches in the draft when he can command it. However, he ran into trouble when I saw him pitch when he couldn't locate the slider for strikes, allowing hitters to lay off and sit on his fastball, which they squared up when it was up in the zone. If the Astros can improve his slider command and help bring that already-solid changeup along, they could have themselves an ace.
2-53: 3B Joe Perez (my rank: 72)
This is one of the most interesting picks in the draft. I originally had Perez ranked in the 50's, higher than any board I had seen, but as a pitcher. I thought he had so much upside on the mound that I didn't even look at him as a hitter, but then he blew out his elbow at the end of the season and required Tommy John surgery, dropping him to 72nd on my list, still as a pitcher. He showcases good power as a hitter and has the upside of a starting third baseman, though his defense has been questioned and could push him to first base. In his favor is that he is a full year younger than the typical high school senior. This is an interesting pick because it's higher than almost anybody thought he would be drafted and because he was taken as a hitter, when general consensus was that he was a better pitching prospect.
2-56: RHP Corbin Martin (my rank: 57)
The Astros had an extra second round pick because of the Cardinals' hacking scandal, and they used it to take their first of many local players. Corbin Martin had a rough season at Texas A&M in 2016 (2-1, 5.47 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 33/21 K/BB, primarily as a reliever), but proceeded to dominate the Cape Cod League (0-1, 1.15 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 22/3 K/BB) and came into 2017 with big expectations. For the most part, he met them this year, going 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP, striking out 95 and walking 38 in 87.2 innings, primarily as a starter. Martin stands 6'2" and can throw his fastball anywhere from 90-98, sitting more 90-95 as a starter and closer to the mid to upper 90's as a reliever. His power curveball has big break and grades out as plus, but his command still needs improvement. He took a step forward with it this year, but still walked 3.9 per nine, and it may ultimately force him to the bullpen. It's hard to say whether Martin is a starter or a reliever going forward, but it will be fun to watch.
CBB-75: 1B J.J. Matijevic (my rank: 62)
With the last pick of day one, the Astros got a great hitter from the University of Arizona. Though his freshman and sophomore seasons for the Wildcats were so-so, he played great over two years on the Cape (.349/.391/.507, 6 HR in 61 games), and he broke out to slash .383/.436/.633 with 10 home runs as a junior this year for Arizona. His load provides most of his power as he gains ground, and the Cape results mean his power has a good chance of playing up, but his walk rate was a bit low (8.4% this year) for my tastes. Still a great pick here because of the offensive upside.
3-91: RHP Tyler Ivey (unranked)
Ivey is another local guy, having pitched decently well for Texas A&M as a freshman last year (2-3, 3.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 48/15 K/BB) before transferring to a Texas junior college, where he fits a classic back-end starter profile. He has a full but unspectacular arsenal, including a low 90's fastball that he can cut for some movement, a decent slider/curveball combo, and a changeup, all from a clean delivery and a 6'4" frame. If he wants to cut it as a starter in pro ball, he'll need to prove he can miss more bats with his average stuff, but everything else is there. Ivey signed for $450,000, which is $147,800 below slot.
4-121: RHP Peter Solomon (my rank: 91)
I got to see Peter Solomon make a dominant start against Virginia Tech as a sophomore last year. Despite being a college pitcher, he's more of a high-risk, high-reward pick, as he is a projectable 6'4" and can run his fastball into the mid 90's. He struggles with command, and though he made slight improvements this year, it wasn't as much as scouts were hoping for. He can maintain his fastball velocity deep into games and his curveball has big break, but he did hit a wall and struggled with command in the fifth inning when I saw him last year. After walking 42 batters in 57.2 innings for Notre Dame last year, he walked 28 in 54 innings this year, so he's similar to Corbin Martin in that sense. Solomon signed for $420,000, which is $17,400 below slot.
6-181: 1B Jake Adams (unranked)
Adams spent two years at an Des Moines Area Community College before transferring to Iowa this year, and to say the results were immediate would be an understatement. In 61 games, the 6'2", 250 pound first baseman slashed .335/.417/.747 while leading all of Division I with 29 home runs. The massive power alone was enough to get him taken in the top 200 picks, but he does have things to work through. In addition to a lack of track record, his 57/29 strikeout to walk ratio (20.1% to 10.2%) was less than ideal. There's a lot of swing and miss in his game, but if you include his community college stats, he has now blasted 71 home runs in three seasons post-high school. Adams signed for $210,000, which is $39,600 below slot.
Others: 5th rounder Nathan Perry is a Blue Ridge boy from Bassett, Virginia, one who flashes some tools but has a lot of work to do. The high school catcher shows power at the plate, but he has a lot of swing and miss, so he's far from a given to reach the majors. He also has a lot of work to do defensively, but there is upside here. 8th rounder Corey Julks, another local guy out of the University of Houston, was the very last player ranked on the BA 500, coming off a strong junior year where he slashed .335/.426/.572 with nine home runs and 15 stolen bases for the Cougars. He's a solid defender and a competent hitter, one who profiles well as a fourth outfielder and should provide good value in the 8th round. 10th rounder Kyle Serrano is a very familiar name for fans of college baseball, and not just because his father Dave has 446 wins as the head coach for Cal State Fullerton, UC-Irvine, and Tennessee. The younger Serrano played four years for his dad in Knoxville, but struggled with injuries and finished his career 8-10 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 51 games (19 starts). He pitched well on the Cape in 2015 (3.68 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 38/13 K/BB) but missed most of 2016 and 2017 with injuries, though he did come back and strike out 21 batters in the only 9.2 innings he threw this year. 38th rounder Trey Cumbie has been nothing but dominant for the University of Houston over the past two seasons, going 15-4 with a 1.77 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP for the Cougars, and this was especially valuable when his rotation-mate Seth Romero was kicked off the team. He's not a strikeout guy, racking up just 124 in 157.1 innings for his career, but he makes his money (theoretically, since NCAA players are unpaid) through his command, walking just 24 in his career. It's hard for me to see him signing here, but he could emerge as a top 5 round pick next year.
Also notable: Jake Adams (6-181), Corey Julks (8-241), Kyle Serrano (10-301), Trey Cumbie (38-1141)
The Astros had five of the first 91 picks, and they used them to get a lot of big name players. They also picked up a lot of local guys, including two players from the University of Houston, one each from Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Lamar, and a pair of Texas community college players, as well as two players from neighboring Oklahoma and one from Louisiana. I like the mix of players the Astros got here, and with many of their top prospects graduating or getting traded away, they did a good job of re-injecting talent into the system.
1-15: RHP J.B. Bukauskas (my rank: 6)
I got to the chance to play against Bukauskas in high school (he threw a shutout), though I did not get an at bat that game. The UNC ace was a virtual lock for the top ten picks, but he slipped right at the end because of a couple of tough starts at the end of the season, one of which I attended. This is a great pick in the middle of the first round, as Bukauskas has ace potential (he's been compared to Sonny Gray) but could easily fall back on a bullpen job if that doesn't work. Even with those two tough starts at the end, he had an excellent junior season, going 9-1 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, striking out 116 in 92.2 innings. His fastball sits in the mid 90's to upper 90's with running action, and his power mid 80's to upper 80's slider is one of the best pitches in the draft when he can command it. However, he ran into trouble when I saw him pitch when he couldn't locate the slider for strikes, allowing hitters to lay off and sit on his fastball, which they squared up when it was up in the zone. If the Astros can improve his slider command and help bring that already-solid changeup along, they could have themselves an ace.
2-53: 3B Joe Perez (my rank: 72)
This is one of the most interesting picks in the draft. I originally had Perez ranked in the 50's, higher than any board I had seen, but as a pitcher. I thought he had so much upside on the mound that I didn't even look at him as a hitter, but then he blew out his elbow at the end of the season and required Tommy John surgery, dropping him to 72nd on my list, still as a pitcher. He showcases good power as a hitter and has the upside of a starting third baseman, though his defense has been questioned and could push him to first base. In his favor is that he is a full year younger than the typical high school senior. This is an interesting pick because it's higher than almost anybody thought he would be drafted and because he was taken as a hitter, when general consensus was that he was a better pitching prospect.
2-56: RHP Corbin Martin (my rank: 57)
The Astros had an extra second round pick because of the Cardinals' hacking scandal, and they used it to take their first of many local players. Corbin Martin had a rough season at Texas A&M in 2016 (2-1, 5.47 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 33/21 K/BB, primarily as a reliever), but proceeded to dominate the Cape Cod League (0-1, 1.15 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 22/3 K/BB) and came into 2017 with big expectations. For the most part, he met them this year, going 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP, striking out 95 and walking 38 in 87.2 innings, primarily as a starter. Martin stands 6'2" and can throw his fastball anywhere from 90-98, sitting more 90-95 as a starter and closer to the mid to upper 90's as a reliever. His power curveball has big break and grades out as plus, but his command still needs improvement. He took a step forward with it this year, but still walked 3.9 per nine, and it may ultimately force him to the bullpen. It's hard to say whether Martin is a starter or a reliever going forward, but it will be fun to watch.
CBB-75: 1B J.J. Matijevic (my rank: 62)
With the last pick of day one, the Astros got a great hitter from the University of Arizona. Though his freshman and sophomore seasons for the Wildcats were so-so, he played great over two years on the Cape (.349/.391/.507, 6 HR in 61 games), and he broke out to slash .383/.436/.633 with 10 home runs as a junior this year for Arizona. His load provides most of his power as he gains ground, and the Cape results mean his power has a good chance of playing up, but his walk rate was a bit low (8.4% this year) for my tastes. Still a great pick here because of the offensive upside.
3-91: RHP Tyler Ivey (unranked)
Ivey is another local guy, having pitched decently well for Texas A&M as a freshman last year (2-3, 3.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 48/15 K/BB) before transferring to a Texas junior college, where he fits a classic back-end starter profile. He has a full but unspectacular arsenal, including a low 90's fastball that he can cut for some movement, a decent slider/curveball combo, and a changeup, all from a clean delivery and a 6'4" frame. If he wants to cut it as a starter in pro ball, he'll need to prove he can miss more bats with his average stuff, but everything else is there. Ivey signed for $450,000, which is $147,800 below slot.
4-121: RHP Peter Solomon (my rank: 91)
I got to see Peter Solomon make a dominant start against Virginia Tech as a sophomore last year. Despite being a college pitcher, he's more of a high-risk, high-reward pick, as he is a projectable 6'4" and can run his fastball into the mid 90's. He struggles with command, and though he made slight improvements this year, it wasn't as much as scouts were hoping for. He can maintain his fastball velocity deep into games and his curveball has big break, but he did hit a wall and struggled with command in the fifth inning when I saw him last year. After walking 42 batters in 57.2 innings for Notre Dame last year, he walked 28 in 54 innings this year, so he's similar to Corbin Martin in that sense. Solomon signed for $420,000, which is $17,400 below slot.
6-181: 1B Jake Adams (unranked)
Adams spent two years at an Des Moines Area Community College before transferring to Iowa this year, and to say the results were immediate would be an understatement. In 61 games, the 6'2", 250 pound first baseman slashed .335/.417/.747 while leading all of Division I with 29 home runs. The massive power alone was enough to get him taken in the top 200 picks, but he does have things to work through. In addition to a lack of track record, his 57/29 strikeout to walk ratio (20.1% to 10.2%) was less than ideal. There's a lot of swing and miss in his game, but if you include his community college stats, he has now blasted 71 home runs in three seasons post-high school. Adams signed for $210,000, which is $39,600 below slot.
Others: 5th rounder Nathan Perry is a Blue Ridge boy from Bassett, Virginia, one who flashes some tools but has a lot of work to do. The high school catcher shows power at the plate, but he has a lot of swing and miss, so he's far from a given to reach the majors. He also has a lot of work to do defensively, but there is upside here. 8th rounder Corey Julks, another local guy out of the University of Houston, was the very last player ranked on the BA 500, coming off a strong junior year where he slashed .335/.426/.572 with nine home runs and 15 stolen bases for the Cougars. He's a solid defender and a competent hitter, one who profiles well as a fourth outfielder and should provide good value in the 8th round. 10th rounder Kyle Serrano is a very familiar name for fans of college baseball, and not just because his father Dave has 446 wins as the head coach for Cal State Fullerton, UC-Irvine, and Tennessee. The younger Serrano played four years for his dad in Knoxville, but struggled with injuries and finished his career 8-10 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 51 games (19 starts). He pitched well on the Cape in 2015 (3.68 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 38/13 K/BB) but missed most of 2016 and 2017 with injuries, though he did come back and strike out 21 batters in the only 9.2 innings he threw this year. 38th rounder Trey Cumbie has been nothing but dominant for the University of Houston over the past two seasons, going 15-4 with a 1.77 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP for the Cougars, and this was especially valuable when his rotation-mate Seth Romero was kicked off the team. He's not a strikeout guy, racking up just 124 in 157.1 innings for his career, but he makes his money (theoretically, since NCAA players are unpaid) through his command, walking just 24 in his career. It's hard for me to see him signing here, but he could emerge as a top 5 round pick next year.
Sunday, June 25, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels
First 5 rounds: Jo Adell (1-10), Griffin Canning (2-47), Jacob Pearson (3-85), John Swanda (4-115), Joseph Booker (5-145).
Also notable: Jonah Todd (6-175), Brett Hanewich (9-265), Keith Rogalla (12-355), Mitchell Traver (20-595).
The Angels took two exact-opposite players with their first two picks, nabbing a high-upside, high-risk, toolsy high schooler with their first pick before drafting a high-floor, safe bet college starter with their second. While the Angels farm system has dramatically improved from "literally empty" to "well, at least they're not the Marlins or Diamondbacks," there is still plenty of work to be done in making it into something respectable, and they did a decent job of that with this draft. Nothing really stands out, though they did take six right handed pitchers in seven picks from the fourth through the tenth rounds.
1-10: CF Jo Adell (my rank: 12)
Upon signing, Adell immediately became the Angels' top prospect since either Mike Trout, which probably says more about the state of the Angels' farm system than it does about Adell, who is just 18. Adell is raw and toolsy, showing the combination of plus power and plus speed that teams love. He led all high schoolers with 25 home runs this year, but whether those tools can translate up remains to be seen. He has some significant swing and miss in his game, and he'll take a fairly long time to reach the majors, but the upside is tremendous. He signed an at-slot deal of just under $4.4 million.
2-47: RHP Griffin Canning (my rank: 18)
Canning was viewed as a potential top-20 pick right up until the weekend before the draft, when something apparently was wrong with his physical and pushed him down the draft. It's not publicly known exactly what the injury is/could be, but it apparently stemmed from his MRI, which could mean any range of things. The UCLA ace, who grew up just south of Anaheim in Rancho Santa Margarita, will join his hometown team after a very successful three year career for the Bruins. He had his best season yet as a junior this year, going 7-4 with a 2.34 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 140 batters in 119 innings while walking just 32. At 6'2", he's not a big guy but not quite undersized, and he has a three pitch mix that he commands well. The fastball sits in the low 90's, the curveball has big break, and the changeup seems to disappear as it gets to the plate, giving him close to a major league arsenal already. The upside here isn't great, as he likely will never be more than a mid-rotation starter, but he has one of the highest floors in this draft (aside from injury concerns). He signed an at-slot deal of just under $1.5 million.
3-85: OF Jacob Pearson (my rank: 80)
Pearson is another toolsy high school outfielder, though he lacks Adell's upside. He generates good bat speed and power from the left side, but the swing is a little bit long and could lead to contact concerns. He's fast, too, but unlike Adell, his arm is below average. If Pearson's hit tool can come along, he could be a solid starting option in the big league outfield, but right now he looks more like a fourth outfielder. He has not signed.
12-355: RHP Keith Rogalla (unranked)
Rogalla just finished a solid if unspectacular three year career at Creighton, where he went 11-10 overall with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP primarily as a starter, but most see him as a reliever going forward. There, his low to mid 90's fastball could sit in the mid 90's, and his curveball could tighten into an above average pitch. He walked 35 batters in 71.1 innings this year, so he'll need to improve his command to advance. Rogalla has not signed.
Others: 4th rounder John Swanda has a lot of upside, but the package is incomplete at this point for the high school pitcher out of Des Moines. He has an average three pitch arsenal, but he commands it well and could turn into a mid-rotation starter when all is said and done. 6th rounder Jonah Todd played one year at Auburn after transferring from Marion Military Institute, where he showcased excellent on-base abilities and now power, slashing .376/.460/.471 with no home runs. He did knock 13 doubles and five triples while stealing nine bases and walking more (12.8%) than he struck out (9.7%). He's a fun success story, coming from that military background before working at a Walmart over the summer so he could afford to play at Auburn, where he made the team as a walk-on. 9th rounder Brett Hanewich, out of Stanford, is a bit of a wild card, as he has been a major part of the Cardinal pitching staff when healthy, but that has been less and less often as his career has progressed. He has touched 96 before, but more often sits in the low 90's, and he doesn't have great command, and his slider is just as inconsistent. There is still hope for him as a starter, but he would probably be best off as a reliever in pro ball. 20th rounder Mitchell Traver, one of the more recognizable named in college baseball after being a part of the TCU pitching staff for what seems like forever, is already 23 but can provide value in the 20th round. A redshirt senior who came to school way back in 2013, he has pitched in 37 games (33 starts) over the years, going 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP for the Horned Frogs. He has a long medical history that has caused him to miss time for elbow, shoulder, and back injuries, but his potentially plus fastball/slider combo makes him a solid prospect as a reliever. This is the fourth time (!) he's been drafted, having gone in the 39th round in 2012, the 28th round in 2015, the 17th round in 2016, and the 20th round this year. No matter how his career turns out, he won't be the redshirt senior out of TCU to make an MLB impact; Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter was drafted as a fifth year Horned Frog as well.
Also notable: Jonah Todd (6-175), Brett Hanewich (9-265), Keith Rogalla (12-355), Mitchell Traver (20-595).
The Angels took two exact-opposite players with their first two picks, nabbing a high-upside, high-risk, toolsy high schooler with their first pick before drafting a high-floor, safe bet college starter with their second. While the Angels farm system has dramatically improved from "literally empty" to "well, at least they're not the Marlins or Diamondbacks," there is still plenty of work to be done in making it into something respectable, and they did a decent job of that with this draft. Nothing really stands out, though they did take six right handed pitchers in seven picks from the fourth through the tenth rounds.
1-10: CF Jo Adell (my rank: 12)
Upon signing, Adell immediately became the Angels' top prospect since either Mike Trout, which probably says more about the state of the Angels' farm system than it does about Adell, who is just 18. Adell is raw and toolsy, showing the combination of plus power and plus speed that teams love. He led all high schoolers with 25 home runs this year, but whether those tools can translate up remains to be seen. He has some significant swing and miss in his game, and he'll take a fairly long time to reach the majors, but the upside is tremendous. He signed an at-slot deal of just under $4.4 million.
2-47: RHP Griffin Canning (my rank: 18)
Canning was viewed as a potential top-20 pick right up until the weekend before the draft, when something apparently was wrong with his physical and pushed him down the draft. It's not publicly known exactly what the injury is/could be, but it apparently stemmed from his MRI, which could mean any range of things. The UCLA ace, who grew up just south of Anaheim in Rancho Santa Margarita, will join his hometown team after a very successful three year career for the Bruins. He had his best season yet as a junior this year, going 7-4 with a 2.34 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 140 batters in 119 innings while walking just 32. At 6'2", he's not a big guy but not quite undersized, and he has a three pitch mix that he commands well. The fastball sits in the low 90's, the curveball has big break, and the changeup seems to disappear as it gets to the plate, giving him close to a major league arsenal already. The upside here isn't great, as he likely will never be more than a mid-rotation starter, but he has one of the highest floors in this draft (aside from injury concerns). He signed an at-slot deal of just under $1.5 million.
3-85: OF Jacob Pearson (my rank: 80)
Pearson is another toolsy high school outfielder, though he lacks Adell's upside. He generates good bat speed and power from the left side, but the swing is a little bit long and could lead to contact concerns. He's fast, too, but unlike Adell, his arm is below average. If Pearson's hit tool can come along, he could be a solid starting option in the big league outfield, but right now he looks more like a fourth outfielder. He has not signed.
12-355: RHP Keith Rogalla (unranked)
Rogalla just finished a solid if unspectacular three year career at Creighton, where he went 11-10 overall with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP primarily as a starter, but most see him as a reliever going forward. There, his low to mid 90's fastball could sit in the mid 90's, and his curveball could tighten into an above average pitch. He walked 35 batters in 71.1 innings this year, so he'll need to improve his command to advance. Rogalla has not signed.
Others: 4th rounder John Swanda has a lot of upside, but the package is incomplete at this point for the high school pitcher out of Des Moines. He has an average three pitch arsenal, but he commands it well and could turn into a mid-rotation starter when all is said and done. 6th rounder Jonah Todd played one year at Auburn after transferring from Marion Military Institute, where he showcased excellent on-base abilities and now power, slashing .376/.460/.471 with no home runs. He did knock 13 doubles and five triples while stealing nine bases and walking more (12.8%) than he struck out (9.7%). He's a fun success story, coming from that military background before working at a Walmart over the summer so he could afford to play at Auburn, where he made the team as a walk-on. 9th rounder Brett Hanewich, out of Stanford, is a bit of a wild card, as he has been a major part of the Cardinal pitching staff when healthy, but that has been less and less often as his career has progressed. He has touched 96 before, but more often sits in the low 90's, and he doesn't have great command, and his slider is just as inconsistent. There is still hope for him as a starter, but he would probably be best off as a reliever in pro ball. 20th rounder Mitchell Traver, one of the more recognizable named in college baseball after being a part of the TCU pitching staff for what seems like forever, is already 23 but can provide value in the 20th round. A redshirt senior who came to school way back in 2013, he has pitched in 37 games (33 starts) over the years, going 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP for the Horned Frogs. He has a long medical history that has caused him to miss time for elbow, shoulder, and back injuries, but his potentially plus fastball/slider combo makes him a solid prospect as a reliever. This is the fourth time (!) he's been drafted, having gone in the 39th round in 2012, the 28th round in 2015, the 17th round in 2016, and the 20th round this year. No matter how his career turns out, he won't be the redshirt senior out of TCU to make an MLB impact; Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter was drafted as a fifth year Horned Frog as well.
Saturday, June 24, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Minnesota Twins
First 5 rounds: Royce Lewis (1-1), Brent Rooker (CBA-35), Landon Leach (2-37), Blayne Enlow (3-76), Charlie Barnes (4-106), Andrew Bechtold (5-136)
Also notable: Ricardo De La Torre (6-166), Ryley Widell (7-196), Jordan Spicer (26-766), Griffin Roberts (29-856), Adam Oviedo (35-1036)
The Twins had four of the first 76 picks, including the first overall pick, so they had incredibly high expectations heading in. Obviously, they came in with quite the haul. There's a lot of risk here, with three of those first four picks being high schoolers, but there is a lot of upside. I would say this draft meets expectations; they got a lot of talent, but with so many high picks, that's expected, and there were probably some better picks they could have made.
1-1: SS Royce Lewis (my rank: 5)
I ranked Lewis fifth, but that doesn't mean I don't like this pick. Lewis is, to put it simply, awesome. Though he does have some pitch recognition issues, he's a very advanced hitter, and I think the power will come. He's extremely athletic, and though he may not stick at shortstop, he profiles well as a second baseman or as a center fielder due to his easily plus speed, and his makeup is widely known to be excellent. I'd compare him to Javier Baez because of the similarity in the swing mechanics and athleticism, though Lewis' swing is noticeably more under control than that of Baez, and he will probably strike out much less. He's not quite the defender that Baez is, but he's more athletic. He signed for just over $6.7 million, which is $1.45 million below slot, money which the Twins will use on Landon Leach and Blayne Enlow.
CBA-35: OF Brent Rooker (my rank: 42)
Brent Rooker can absolutely mash. With the 35th pick, the Twins took the player who put up the best season, statistically, in the entire country. Despite playing in the notoriously tough SEC, Rooker slashed .387/.495/.810 with 23 home runs, 30 doubles, three triples, and 18 stolen bases over 67 games for Mississippi State. Basically, he got on base half the time, knocked nearly an extra base hit per game, and stole about a base per week. That's just flat out ridiculous. The only downsides to Rooker are his age (he turns 23 in November), lack of a track record (he slashed "just" .324/.376/.578 with 11 home runs last year), and strikeout rate (18.8%). While he's no defensive star, he should be able to man an outfield corner well enough to not be a liability, but the bat is the real calling card here. He changed his swing this year, and it is now one of the quickest and most powerful in the draft, one that I see helping both his power and average translate up well despite the high strikeout totals. He should be a quick to the big leagues bat who can hit 20 home runs per season or more. Rooker signed for an at-slot bonus of just over $1.9 million.
2-37: RHP Landon Leach (my rank: 77).
This may be my least favorite pick of the draft. By saving almost $1.5 million on Lewis with the first overall pick, the Twins could have gone overslot here, and even though Leach may command a high bonus, I think there were multiple better players for the Twins to take here. That said, by ranking Leach 77th, I actually like him more than both Baseball America (85) and MLB.com (101). Leach is a projectable Canadian high schooler, standing 6'5" with a skinny build that has room for more weight. He sits in the low 90's now with an average curveball, but he hasn't been pitching for very long and he's young for the class. His natural feel for pitching will help him develop his full arsenal, and that decent curveball has a good chance of being a plus pitch with pro coaching. This is a high risk pick, but Leach is the type of pitcher who can turn into a rotation stalwart. Leach has yet to sign.
3-76: RHP Blayne Enlow (my rank: 27)
On the flip side to the Leach pick, this is a great pick, as long as they can sign him. Blayne Enlow, out of a Louisiana high school, is actually a fairly similar pitcher to Leach, but aside from being about nine months older, he has a few extra things going for him. Enlow, who stands at a very projectable 6'4", has a longer track record, better overall command, and a significantly better curveball that is already among the best in the class. He had a tough spring, as his fastball sat closer to 90 than its typical low 90's range, but he still hit 94 late in the season. Enlow could be a top of the rotation arm if everything breaks right, but he will supposedly be a very tough sign, especially in the third round. If he signs, it will certainly be overslot, and probably by a wide margin. He is committed to LSU, where he has dreamed of playing for a long time.
4-106: LHP Charlie Barnes (my rank: 130)
He may not have gotten a great ranking on my list, but it's hard not to like the six foot lefty. Barnes pitched well as Clemson's ace this year (5-5, 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 113/22 K/BB), showcasing excellent command and a feel for a full, four pitch arsenal. His fastball may be below average, as it sits in the upper 80's and can touch 90 or 91, but he commands it well and it is effective on the corners. He spins a good curveball and a decent slider, but his changeup is his best pitch. He doesn't have a high ceiling and projects as a #5 starter at this point, but he should be quick to the big leagues. I wrote before the draft that Barnes struck me as "the type of guys whose stuff randomly and unexpectedly steps forward in pro ball." If that happens, it will more than justify the fourth round pick here. Barnes signed for $450,000, which is $57,000 below slot.
5-136: 3B Andrew Bechtold (my rank: 124).
The Chipola JC third baseman is an interesting player and a good pick here in the fifth round. Bechtold played his freshman and sophomore years at Maryland, where he struggled to a combined .220/.336/.246 slash line and didn't hit a single home run. Still, his 13.9% overall walk rate showed promise, and he transferred to Chipola for his junior season. There, he blossomed into one of the best JuCo hitters in the country, slashing .419/.532/.676 with 12 home runs and 16 doubles in 60 games. He has a quick uppercut that is somewhat similar to Louisville third baseman and D-Backs second rounder Drew Ellis, one that should produce power in pro ball but may have difficulty translating up in terms of contact. This is a risky pick for a college player, but Bechtold could be a starting third baseman in the major leagues. Bechtold has not signed yet.
26-766: RHP Jordan Spicer (my rank: 108)
I'm a Jordan Spicer fan. Here is another Florida JuCo guy, this one out of Polk State. Spicer probably won't sign here in the 26th round, but if he somehow does, he is a high upside talent. He went 7-0 with a 1.94 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP for Polk State this year, striking out 71 batters in 69.2 innings. He has a low 90's fastball that holds its velocity deep into games, as well as a big breaking curveball and a sharp slider. The curve has early break at this point, but could be a plus pitch in time, especially once he cleans up his inefficient delivery.
Others: 6th rounder Ricardo De La Torre actually cracked MLB.com's original top 50 draft prospect list back in January, though I wasn't sold on him then and wasn't surprised when his draft stock faded. He's a projection play at shortstop, one without big tools but still a solid player all around. His swing is a bit long for my taste, but it has some loft and could lead to average power, and he has a good enough feel for hitting to stick as a utility man. His defense is so-so at shortstop but will work well at second base. 7th rounder Ryley Widell is yet another JuCo pitcher, this time from Central Arizona, where works off a solid fastball/changeup combo and is working on a breaking ball. Standing 6'4" with room for more good weight, he could develop into a back-end starter. 29th rounder Griffin Roberts probably doesn't sign as a draft-eligible sophomore taken in a late round, but the Wake Forest closer dominated the ACC to the tune of a 2.15 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 75 strikeouts in just 50.1 innings. His command still wobbles (29 walks in those 50.1 innings), and as a college reliever his stuff presumably doesn't have much further projection, but he does throw a low to mid 90's fastball that runs and sinks well to go along with an average slider. He projects as a middle relief option at this point. 35th rounder Adam Oviedo has practically a 0% chance of signing with a strong commitment to TCU, but he just cracked my top 150 at #148 as a scrappy middle infielder with some power projection, but I'm not sold on his overall hitting ability. He'll be interesting to watch at TCU.
Also notable: Ricardo De La Torre (6-166), Ryley Widell (7-196), Jordan Spicer (26-766), Griffin Roberts (29-856), Adam Oviedo (35-1036)
The Twins had four of the first 76 picks, including the first overall pick, so they had incredibly high expectations heading in. Obviously, they came in with quite the haul. There's a lot of risk here, with three of those first four picks being high schoolers, but there is a lot of upside. I would say this draft meets expectations; they got a lot of talent, but with so many high picks, that's expected, and there were probably some better picks they could have made.
1-1: SS Royce Lewis (my rank: 5)
I ranked Lewis fifth, but that doesn't mean I don't like this pick. Lewis is, to put it simply, awesome. Though he does have some pitch recognition issues, he's a very advanced hitter, and I think the power will come. He's extremely athletic, and though he may not stick at shortstop, he profiles well as a second baseman or as a center fielder due to his easily plus speed, and his makeup is widely known to be excellent. I'd compare him to Javier Baez because of the similarity in the swing mechanics and athleticism, though Lewis' swing is noticeably more under control than that of Baez, and he will probably strike out much less. He's not quite the defender that Baez is, but he's more athletic. He signed for just over $6.7 million, which is $1.45 million below slot, money which the Twins will use on Landon Leach and Blayne Enlow.
CBA-35: OF Brent Rooker (my rank: 42)
Brent Rooker can absolutely mash. With the 35th pick, the Twins took the player who put up the best season, statistically, in the entire country. Despite playing in the notoriously tough SEC, Rooker slashed .387/.495/.810 with 23 home runs, 30 doubles, three triples, and 18 stolen bases over 67 games for Mississippi State. Basically, he got on base half the time, knocked nearly an extra base hit per game, and stole about a base per week. That's just flat out ridiculous. The only downsides to Rooker are his age (he turns 23 in November), lack of a track record (he slashed "just" .324/.376/.578 with 11 home runs last year), and strikeout rate (18.8%). While he's no defensive star, he should be able to man an outfield corner well enough to not be a liability, but the bat is the real calling card here. He changed his swing this year, and it is now one of the quickest and most powerful in the draft, one that I see helping both his power and average translate up well despite the high strikeout totals. He should be a quick to the big leagues bat who can hit 20 home runs per season or more. Rooker signed for an at-slot bonus of just over $1.9 million.
2-37: RHP Landon Leach (my rank: 77).
This may be my least favorite pick of the draft. By saving almost $1.5 million on Lewis with the first overall pick, the Twins could have gone overslot here, and even though Leach may command a high bonus, I think there were multiple better players for the Twins to take here. That said, by ranking Leach 77th, I actually like him more than both Baseball America (85) and MLB.com (101). Leach is a projectable Canadian high schooler, standing 6'5" with a skinny build that has room for more weight. He sits in the low 90's now with an average curveball, but he hasn't been pitching for very long and he's young for the class. His natural feel for pitching will help him develop his full arsenal, and that decent curveball has a good chance of being a plus pitch with pro coaching. This is a high risk pick, but Leach is the type of pitcher who can turn into a rotation stalwart. Leach has yet to sign.
3-76: RHP Blayne Enlow (my rank: 27)
On the flip side to the Leach pick, this is a great pick, as long as they can sign him. Blayne Enlow, out of a Louisiana high school, is actually a fairly similar pitcher to Leach, but aside from being about nine months older, he has a few extra things going for him. Enlow, who stands at a very projectable 6'4", has a longer track record, better overall command, and a significantly better curveball that is already among the best in the class. He had a tough spring, as his fastball sat closer to 90 than its typical low 90's range, but he still hit 94 late in the season. Enlow could be a top of the rotation arm if everything breaks right, but he will supposedly be a very tough sign, especially in the third round. If he signs, it will certainly be overslot, and probably by a wide margin. He is committed to LSU, where he has dreamed of playing for a long time.
4-106: LHP Charlie Barnes (my rank: 130)
He may not have gotten a great ranking on my list, but it's hard not to like the six foot lefty. Barnes pitched well as Clemson's ace this year (5-5, 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 113/22 K/BB), showcasing excellent command and a feel for a full, four pitch arsenal. His fastball may be below average, as it sits in the upper 80's and can touch 90 or 91, but he commands it well and it is effective on the corners. He spins a good curveball and a decent slider, but his changeup is his best pitch. He doesn't have a high ceiling and projects as a #5 starter at this point, but he should be quick to the big leagues. I wrote before the draft that Barnes struck me as "the type of guys whose stuff randomly and unexpectedly steps forward in pro ball." If that happens, it will more than justify the fourth round pick here. Barnes signed for $450,000, which is $57,000 below slot.
5-136: 3B Andrew Bechtold (my rank: 124).
The Chipola JC third baseman is an interesting player and a good pick here in the fifth round. Bechtold played his freshman and sophomore years at Maryland, where he struggled to a combined .220/.336/.246 slash line and didn't hit a single home run. Still, his 13.9% overall walk rate showed promise, and he transferred to Chipola for his junior season. There, he blossomed into one of the best JuCo hitters in the country, slashing .419/.532/.676 with 12 home runs and 16 doubles in 60 games. He has a quick uppercut that is somewhat similar to Louisville third baseman and D-Backs second rounder Drew Ellis, one that should produce power in pro ball but may have difficulty translating up in terms of contact. This is a risky pick for a college player, but Bechtold could be a starting third baseman in the major leagues. Bechtold has not signed yet.
26-766: RHP Jordan Spicer (my rank: 108)
I'm a Jordan Spicer fan. Here is another Florida JuCo guy, this one out of Polk State. Spicer probably won't sign here in the 26th round, but if he somehow does, he is a high upside talent. He went 7-0 with a 1.94 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP for Polk State this year, striking out 71 batters in 69.2 innings. He has a low 90's fastball that holds its velocity deep into games, as well as a big breaking curveball and a sharp slider. The curve has early break at this point, but could be a plus pitch in time, especially once he cleans up his inefficient delivery.
Others: 6th rounder Ricardo De La Torre actually cracked MLB.com's original top 50 draft prospect list back in January, though I wasn't sold on him then and wasn't surprised when his draft stock faded. He's a projection play at shortstop, one without big tools but still a solid player all around. His swing is a bit long for my taste, but it has some loft and could lead to average power, and he has a good enough feel for hitting to stick as a utility man. His defense is so-so at shortstop but will work well at second base. 7th rounder Ryley Widell is yet another JuCo pitcher, this time from Central Arizona, where works off a solid fastball/changeup combo and is working on a breaking ball. Standing 6'4" with room for more good weight, he could develop into a back-end starter. 29th rounder Griffin Roberts probably doesn't sign as a draft-eligible sophomore taken in a late round, but the Wake Forest closer dominated the ACC to the tune of a 2.15 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 75 strikeouts in just 50.1 innings. His command still wobbles (29 walks in those 50.1 innings), and as a college reliever his stuff presumably doesn't have much further projection, but he does throw a low to mid 90's fastball that runs and sinks well to go along with an average slider. He projects as a middle relief option at this point. 35th rounder Adam Oviedo has practically a 0% chance of signing with a strong commitment to TCU, but he just cracked my top 150 at #148 as a scrappy middle infielder with some power projection, but I'm not sold on his overall hitting ability. He'll be interesting to watch at TCU.
Friday, June 23, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Kansas City Royals
First 5 rounds: Nick Pratto (1-14), M.J. Melendez (2-52), Evan Steele (CBB-73), Daniel Tillo (3-90), Michael Gigliotti (4-120), Charlie Neuweiler (5-150).
Also notable: Brewer Hicklen (7-210), Sal Biasi (11-330), Andrew Beckwith (32-960), Reed Rohlman (35-1050).
The Royals threw caution to the wind and went all upside in the early part of this draft, waiting until the fourth round (their fifth pick) to select a player from a four-year university, and even he (Michael Gigliotti) is much more of an upside play than a safety pick. Each of their first six picks has the potential to be a star, and any of them could fail in the low minors. It's an interesting strategy, but I do really like the players they got here. Let's take a look.
Side note: only two players in this draft were taken exactly where I ranked them: Nick Pratto and M.J. Melendez. Look up, and you'll see why that's ironic.
1-14: 1B Nick Pratto (my rank: 14)
Nick Pratto has a high floor for a high schooler, showing a very advanced approach at the plate to go along with emerging power. He has a clean swing with a tendency to barrel the ball up, though his power may have a hard time playing in Kauffman Stadium. He is similar to current Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer, though he will have much better plate discipline, and could be closer to a Joey Votto-type when all is said and done. He's a solid defender at first base, but the bat is his calling card. Pratto has signed for $3.45 million, which is $277,600 under slot.
2-52: C M.J. Melendez (my rank: 52)
The Royals seemed to be looking at my rankings, selecting a second straight player right where I ranked him. Melendez is a high upside, high risk high school catcher from the same Westminster Christian School that produced Alex Rodriguez. Melendez, whose skinny build is uncommon for a catcher, is a solid defender with a great arm and good agility behind the plate. As a hitter, it's easy to dream on his power potential with his long arms and rotational swing, but the swing will need to be cleaned up significantly if he wants to hit at higher levels. It's long to the ball, short through it, and since he's the son of FIU head coach Mervyl Melendez, you'd expect him to be a bit less raw at the plate. Still, as a catcher with high potential with the bat, he's a solid pick in the second round. Melendez signed for just under $2.1 million, which is $801,800 over slot.
CBB-73: LHP Evan Steele (my rank: 103)
Evan Steele has a great baseball name, and he was the second of what would be eleven Chipola JC players drafted after slugging teammate Reynaldo Rivera (#57 to Tigers). He's a projectable 6'5" lefty, so that will catch teams' interest immediately, and he already throws in the low 90's with a slider that could be plus in time. Adding a good changeup, he's a classic mid to back end starter with the potential for more, and he'll play well in relief if the Royals go that route. He is still unsigned.
3-90: LHP Daniel Tillo (my rank: 66)
17 picks after taking Steele, the Royals drafted another big JuCo lefty, Iowa Western's Daniel Tillo. He's a riskier pick than Steele, but he already throws in the low to mid 90's despite being fairly new to pitching. As you would expect from someone who just began pitching, his sinking fastball is ahead of his other pitches, but his secondaries are coming along nicely and if he can continue to build on them, he has mid-rotation ceiling. He did run into durability issues this spring, but because of the low mileage on his arm, I don't expect that to be a problem going forward. Tillo signed for $557,500, which is $49,800 under slot.
4-120: CF Michael Gigliotti (my rank: 88)
Coming into the season, Gigliotti was seen as a first round pick. Lipscomb University's center fielder had slashed .301/.407/.461 with three home runs and 15 stolen bases as a sophomore, then cranked it up a notch by slashing .310/.404/.426 with two home runs over 42 games on the Cape, earning comparisons to Jacoby Ellsbury. However, he struggled mightily at the outset of his junior season as he looked "lost" at the plate, and it didn't help that pitchers were simply refusing to throw him strikes. He did heat up at the end of the season and finished with a .287/.451/.411 line, three home runs, and 31 stolen bases, walking in 18.9% of his plate appearances. I was less confident in him than most at the beginning of the season when I saw him as a future fourth outfielder due to a lack of power projection, but the slump was less of an issue for me than for others because I think it closely paralleled Bryce Harper's 2016 slump, which also stemmed from a lack of strikes to hit. Harper bounced back in 2017, and Gigliotti bounced back (somewhat) at the end of the season. I still see him as a fourth outfielder though due to continued questions about his power. He did sign for $397,500, which is $44,200 under slot. In his first game for Rookie level Burlington, he blasted two home runs.
Others: Fifth rounder Charlie Neuweiler was a teammate of Indians second rounder Quentin Holmes at McClancy High School in Queens, and he throws right around 90 with a solid curveball, projecting as a back-end starter. 7th rounder Brewer Hicklen has another good baseball name, coming from the University of Alabama-Birmingham with a .328/.422/.586 slash line, eight home runs, and 17 stolen bases this year. He's an excellent athlete, also starring as a wide receiver on the UAB football team, and he brings that football mentality to the baseball diamond. His 23.2% strikeout rate was a bit high this year, but he has high upside. Sensing a theme? 11th rounder Sal Biasi comes from Penn State, where he put up a solid, three year career by going 10-13 with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, striking out 185 batters over 174 innings. He's an undersized, stocky right hander with a low 90's fastball and mediocre offspeeds, so he's likely a reliever going forward. The last two players I'll discuss both have prominent names in the college baseball community. 32nd rounder Andrew Beckwith was a huge part of Coastal Carolina's run to the NCAA Championship in 2016, finishing the season 14-1 with a 1.94 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, but he returned for his senior season and wasn't quite the same. This year, he went 8-2 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP and will try to cut it as a reliever in pro ball. 35th rounder Reed Rohlman, out of Clemson, has been a force in the middle of the Tigers lineup for three years, and he had his best year yet in 2017, slashing .361/.448/.542 with six home runs as a redshirt junior. He's physically maxed-out at this point, but as a recognizable face from the ACC, he'll be fun to watch in pro ball.
Also notable: Brewer Hicklen (7-210), Sal Biasi (11-330), Andrew Beckwith (32-960), Reed Rohlman (35-1050).
The Royals threw caution to the wind and went all upside in the early part of this draft, waiting until the fourth round (their fifth pick) to select a player from a four-year university, and even he (Michael Gigliotti) is much more of an upside play than a safety pick. Each of their first six picks has the potential to be a star, and any of them could fail in the low minors. It's an interesting strategy, but I do really like the players they got here. Let's take a look.
Side note: only two players in this draft were taken exactly where I ranked them: Nick Pratto and M.J. Melendez. Look up, and you'll see why that's ironic.
1-14: 1B Nick Pratto (my rank: 14)
Nick Pratto has a high floor for a high schooler, showing a very advanced approach at the plate to go along with emerging power. He has a clean swing with a tendency to barrel the ball up, though his power may have a hard time playing in Kauffman Stadium. He is similar to current Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer, though he will have much better plate discipline, and could be closer to a Joey Votto-type when all is said and done. He's a solid defender at first base, but the bat is his calling card. Pratto has signed for $3.45 million, which is $277,600 under slot.
2-52: C M.J. Melendez (my rank: 52)
The Royals seemed to be looking at my rankings, selecting a second straight player right where I ranked him. Melendez is a high upside, high risk high school catcher from the same Westminster Christian School that produced Alex Rodriguez. Melendez, whose skinny build is uncommon for a catcher, is a solid defender with a great arm and good agility behind the plate. As a hitter, it's easy to dream on his power potential with his long arms and rotational swing, but the swing will need to be cleaned up significantly if he wants to hit at higher levels. It's long to the ball, short through it, and since he's the son of FIU head coach Mervyl Melendez, you'd expect him to be a bit less raw at the plate. Still, as a catcher with high potential with the bat, he's a solid pick in the second round. Melendez signed for just under $2.1 million, which is $801,800 over slot.
CBB-73: LHP Evan Steele (my rank: 103)
Evan Steele has a great baseball name, and he was the second of what would be eleven Chipola JC players drafted after slugging teammate Reynaldo Rivera (#57 to Tigers). He's a projectable 6'5" lefty, so that will catch teams' interest immediately, and he already throws in the low 90's with a slider that could be plus in time. Adding a good changeup, he's a classic mid to back end starter with the potential for more, and he'll play well in relief if the Royals go that route. He is still unsigned.
3-90: LHP Daniel Tillo (my rank: 66)
17 picks after taking Steele, the Royals drafted another big JuCo lefty, Iowa Western's Daniel Tillo. He's a riskier pick than Steele, but he already throws in the low to mid 90's despite being fairly new to pitching. As you would expect from someone who just began pitching, his sinking fastball is ahead of his other pitches, but his secondaries are coming along nicely and if he can continue to build on them, he has mid-rotation ceiling. He did run into durability issues this spring, but because of the low mileage on his arm, I don't expect that to be a problem going forward. Tillo signed for $557,500, which is $49,800 under slot.
4-120: CF Michael Gigliotti (my rank: 88)
Coming into the season, Gigliotti was seen as a first round pick. Lipscomb University's center fielder had slashed .301/.407/.461 with three home runs and 15 stolen bases as a sophomore, then cranked it up a notch by slashing .310/.404/.426 with two home runs over 42 games on the Cape, earning comparisons to Jacoby Ellsbury. However, he struggled mightily at the outset of his junior season as he looked "lost" at the plate, and it didn't help that pitchers were simply refusing to throw him strikes. He did heat up at the end of the season and finished with a .287/.451/.411 line, three home runs, and 31 stolen bases, walking in 18.9% of his plate appearances. I was less confident in him than most at the beginning of the season when I saw him as a future fourth outfielder due to a lack of power projection, but the slump was less of an issue for me than for others because I think it closely paralleled Bryce Harper's 2016 slump, which also stemmed from a lack of strikes to hit. Harper bounced back in 2017, and Gigliotti bounced back (somewhat) at the end of the season. I still see him as a fourth outfielder though due to continued questions about his power. He did sign for $397,500, which is $44,200 under slot. In his first game for Rookie level Burlington, he blasted two home runs.
Others: Fifth rounder Charlie Neuweiler was a teammate of Indians second rounder Quentin Holmes at McClancy High School in Queens, and he throws right around 90 with a solid curveball, projecting as a back-end starter. 7th rounder Brewer Hicklen has another good baseball name, coming from the University of Alabama-Birmingham with a .328/.422/.586 slash line, eight home runs, and 17 stolen bases this year. He's an excellent athlete, also starring as a wide receiver on the UAB football team, and he brings that football mentality to the baseball diamond. His 23.2% strikeout rate was a bit high this year, but he has high upside. Sensing a theme? 11th rounder Sal Biasi comes from Penn State, where he put up a solid, three year career by going 10-13 with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, striking out 185 batters over 174 innings. He's an undersized, stocky right hander with a low 90's fastball and mediocre offspeeds, so he's likely a reliever going forward. The last two players I'll discuss both have prominent names in the college baseball community. 32nd rounder Andrew Beckwith was a huge part of Coastal Carolina's run to the NCAA Championship in 2016, finishing the season 14-1 with a 1.94 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, but he returned for his senior season and wasn't quite the same. This year, he went 8-2 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP and will try to cut it as a reliever in pro ball. 35th rounder Reed Rohlman, out of Clemson, has been a force in the middle of the Tigers lineup for three years, and he had his best year yet in 2017, slashing .361/.448/.542 with six home runs as a redshirt junior. He's physically maxed-out at this point, but as a recognizable face from the ACC, he'll be fun to watch in pro ball.
Thursday, June 22, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Detroit Tigers
First 5 rounds: Alex Faedo (1-18), Reynaldo Rivera (2-57), Joey Morgan (3-95), Gio Arriera (4-125), Sam McMillan (5-155)
Also notable: Dane Myers (6-185), Garett King (11-335), Colby Bortles (22-665), Nick Storz (31-935), Ro Coleman (34-1025)
The Tigers are one of the easiest teams to predict in the first round, because they love right handed pitchers. 2017 marks the third straight year and fifth time in the last six years that they took a right handed pitcher with their first pick. After a great first pick, they didn't have the most exciting draft, going underslot with a few players but grabbing a few interesting names down the draft.
1-18: RHP Alex Faedo (my rank: 11)
This year's RHP is Alex Faedo, and this was a great pick. Coming into the season, Faedo was in the running to go first overall, but an inconsistent spring damaged his stock just slightly. Faedo stands 6'5" with a classic starter's build, and when he's going right, he attacks you with a low to mid 90's fastball and one of the best sliders in the entire class. However, he had minor surgery on both knees during the fall, and he never fully got his velocity back consistently this spring. His fastball sat more in the low 90's, though it did improve a bit as the season went on, and his command was a little more inconsistent than scouts wanted to see. However, he still went 7-2 with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP (so far), striking out 135 batters in 109.1 innings in college baseball's toughest conference. He has #2 starter upside, with the pretty high floor of a #5 starter. He won't come cheap, but they did save a combined $629,300 on their other underslot picks, so they have some of money to go overslot for Faedo if they need to, as well as for other unsigned players such as fifth rounder Sam McMillan.
2-57: OF Reynaldo Rivera (my rank: 142)
The Tigers went underslot with their second pick, saving $298,400 on Rivera. There were probably some better underslot options on the board when they took Rivera with the 57th overall pick, but there was very little public video available for Rivera before the draft and I am not as confident in my evaluation of him as I am with other players, so the Tigers probably saw something in the 6'6" slugger. After slashing .397/.479/.647 with 10 home runs as a freshman last year for Chipola Junior College, he started off 2017 fairly slowly, slashing .246/.380/.474 with three home runs through the first two months of the season. Then, starting in March, he absolutely caught fire, slashing .518/.604/1.030 with 17 home runs over his final 40 games. There is still some swing and miss in his game, as he struck out in 18.2% of his plate appearances on the junior college circuit, but the power and overall hitting ability is unmistakable here. He's a high-risk, high reward slugger who won't provide much value on defense.
3-95: C Joey Morgan (my rank: 109)
If Rivera is the upside pick, Morgan is the safety pick. Washington's catcher signed an at-slot deal so Detroit didn't save any money, but they got a solid back-up catcher for the future. Morgan is good enough defensively to stick behind the plate, and he had a breakout year for the Huskies by slashing .324/.427/.500 with five home runs in the Pac-12. He has a clean swing that should translate up, and his 13.4% walk rate shows that he's willing to take a pitch or two. He's young for a college junior, as he won't turn 21 until August, and while he'll likely never be an impact player in the majors, he could be the Tigers' next Alex Avila.
5-155: C Sam McMillan (my rank: 131)
McMillan hasn't signed yet, but he will likely command an overslot bonus in the fifth round. Committed to the Florida Gators, he's the top high school player in the Florida Panhandle this year, showcasing solid all-around abilities but no plus tools. Like Morgan, he's a solid defensive catcher, but as a high schooler, he carries considerably more risk. That's okay, because he makes up for it by having the upside of a starting catcher due to the power he generates in his right handed swing, with the ability to turn into a Welington Castillo-type guy.
Others: 4th rounder Gio Arriera signed for $95,700 under slot, saving the Tigers a bit of money, but he has some upside as a 6'2" right handed pitcher with a sinker/curveball combination. Both could be plus pitches, and they help him miss plenty of bats, but he'll have to improve his command if he wants to cut it as a starter. 6th rounder Dane Myers slashed .358/.425/.545 with eight home runs as Rice's third baseman this year, but the Tigers didn't draft him for his bat. On the mound, Myers went 1-5 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, striking out 37 batters in 54.1 innings. When he starts focusing on pitching full time, scouts think the 6'2" righty could push his fastball into the mid 90's and pair it with a potentially plus curveball. In that sense, he's pretty similar to Arriera. 11th rounder Garett King was arguably the biggest name in Division II this year, going 7-1 with a 2.33 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP for Cal Baptist this year, striking out 85 batters, walking just 17 over 77.1 innings, and throwing a 15 strikeout no-hitter against Academy of Art University in March. He has extremely high upside for an 11th round pick, showcasing a four pitch mix from a projectable 6'4" frame, but he'll have to improve his platoon splits to continue to be a starter. 22nd rounder Colby Bortles, the younger brother of Jaguars QB Blake Bortles, wrapped up a solid four year career at Ole Miss by slashing .269/.376/.482 with 10 home runs as a senior, and with a strong, 6'5" build, there could be more power to come. 31st rounder Nick Storz was actually an early candidate to go in the first round, ranking as Baseball America's #10 high schooler overall back in November. However, a rough spring damaged his stock to the point where it's now almost a certainty that he will honor his commitment to LSU, where he has the potential to develop into the next Tiger ace. The 6'5" righty, when he's at his best, can run his sinking fastball into the mid 90's with a full arsenal, but nothing looked as sharp this spring and he missed time with a dead arm. 34th rounder Ro Coleman is a very recognizable name for college baseball fans, as he appeared in 224 games and two College World Series for Vanderbilt over the past four seasons. Coleman may be just 5'5" and weigh in at 140 lbs, but he made himself into a fan favorite due to his aggressive style of play. He finished his long career with an unspectacular .265/.360/.332 slash line and just three home runs, but he showcased an ability to get on base and, especially late in his career, very good bat to ball skills (6.7% strikeout rate this year). He played high school ball at the Simeon Academy in Chicago with Brewers 2016 first rounder Corey Ray, the same school that produced basketball stars Derrick Rose and Jabari Parker.
Also notable: Dane Myers (6-185), Garett King (11-335), Colby Bortles (22-665), Nick Storz (31-935), Ro Coleman (34-1025)
The Tigers are one of the easiest teams to predict in the first round, because they love right handed pitchers. 2017 marks the third straight year and fifth time in the last six years that they took a right handed pitcher with their first pick. After a great first pick, they didn't have the most exciting draft, going underslot with a few players but grabbing a few interesting names down the draft.
1-18: RHP Alex Faedo (my rank: 11)
This year's RHP is Alex Faedo, and this was a great pick. Coming into the season, Faedo was in the running to go first overall, but an inconsistent spring damaged his stock just slightly. Faedo stands 6'5" with a classic starter's build, and when he's going right, he attacks you with a low to mid 90's fastball and one of the best sliders in the entire class. However, he had minor surgery on both knees during the fall, and he never fully got his velocity back consistently this spring. His fastball sat more in the low 90's, though it did improve a bit as the season went on, and his command was a little more inconsistent than scouts wanted to see. However, he still went 7-2 with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP (so far), striking out 135 batters in 109.1 innings in college baseball's toughest conference. He has #2 starter upside, with the pretty high floor of a #5 starter. He won't come cheap, but they did save a combined $629,300 on their other underslot picks, so they have some of money to go overslot for Faedo if they need to, as well as for other unsigned players such as fifth rounder Sam McMillan.
2-57: OF Reynaldo Rivera (my rank: 142)
The Tigers went underslot with their second pick, saving $298,400 on Rivera. There were probably some better underslot options on the board when they took Rivera with the 57th overall pick, but there was very little public video available for Rivera before the draft and I am not as confident in my evaluation of him as I am with other players, so the Tigers probably saw something in the 6'6" slugger. After slashing .397/.479/.647 with 10 home runs as a freshman last year for Chipola Junior College, he started off 2017 fairly slowly, slashing .246/.380/.474 with three home runs through the first two months of the season. Then, starting in March, he absolutely caught fire, slashing .518/.604/1.030 with 17 home runs over his final 40 games. There is still some swing and miss in his game, as he struck out in 18.2% of his plate appearances on the junior college circuit, but the power and overall hitting ability is unmistakable here. He's a high-risk, high reward slugger who won't provide much value on defense.
3-95: C Joey Morgan (my rank: 109)
If Rivera is the upside pick, Morgan is the safety pick. Washington's catcher signed an at-slot deal so Detroit didn't save any money, but they got a solid back-up catcher for the future. Morgan is good enough defensively to stick behind the plate, and he had a breakout year for the Huskies by slashing .324/.427/.500 with five home runs in the Pac-12. He has a clean swing that should translate up, and his 13.4% walk rate shows that he's willing to take a pitch or two. He's young for a college junior, as he won't turn 21 until August, and while he'll likely never be an impact player in the majors, he could be the Tigers' next Alex Avila.
5-155: C Sam McMillan (my rank: 131)
McMillan hasn't signed yet, but he will likely command an overslot bonus in the fifth round. Committed to the Florida Gators, he's the top high school player in the Florida Panhandle this year, showcasing solid all-around abilities but no plus tools. Like Morgan, he's a solid defensive catcher, but as a high schooler, he carries considerably more risk. That's okay, because he makes up for it by having the upside of a starting catcher due to the power he generates in his right handed swing, with the ability to turn into a Welington Castillo-type guy.
Others: 4th rounder Gio Arriera signed for $95,700 under slot, saving the Tigers a bit of money, but he has some upside as a 6'2" right handed pitcher with a sinker/curveball combination. Both could be plus pitches, and they help him miss plenty of bats, but he'll have to improve his command if he wants to cut it as a starter. 6th rounder Dane Myers slashed .358/.425/.545 with eight home runs as Rice's third baseman this year, but the Tigers didn't draft him for his bat. On the mound, Myers went 1-5 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, striking out 37 batters in 54.1 innings. When he starts focusing on pitching full time, scouts think the 6'2" righty could push his fastball into the mid 90's and pair it with a potentially plus curveball. In that sense, he's pretty similar to Arriera. 11th rounder Garett King was arguably the biggest name in Division II this year, going 7-1 with a 2.33 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP for Cal Baptist this year, striking out 85 batters, walking just 17 over 77.1 innings, and throwing a 15 strikeout no-hitter against Academy of Art University in March. He has extremely high upside for an 11th round pick, showcasing a four pitch mix from a projectable 6'4" frame, but he'll have to improve his platoon splits to continue to be a starter. 22nd rounder Colby Bortles, the younger brother of Jaguars QB Blake Bortles, wrapped up a solid four year career at Ole Miss by slashing .269/.376/.482 with 10 home runs as a senior, and with a strong, 6'5" build, there could be more power to come. 31st rounder Nick Storz was actually an early candidate to go in the first round, ranking as Baseball America's #10 high schooler overall back in November. However, a rough spring damaged his stock to the point where it's now almost a certainty that he will honor his commitment to LSU, where he has the potential to develop into the next Tiger ace. The 6'5" righty, when he's at his best, can run his sinking fastball into the mid 90's with a full arsenal, but nothing looked as sharp this spring and he missed time with a dead arm. 34th rounder Ro Coleman is a very recognizable name for college baseball fans, as he appeared in 224 games and two College World Series for Vanderbilt over the past four seasons. Coleman may be just 5'5" and weigh in at 140 lbs, but he made himself into a fan favorite due to his aggressive style of play. He finished his long career with an unspectacular .265/.360/.332 slash line and just three home runs, but he showcased an ability to get on base and, especially late in his career, very good bat to ball skills (6.7% strikeout rate this year). He played high school ball at the Simeon Academy in Chicago with Brewers 2016 first rounder Corey Ray, the same school that produced basketball stars Derrick Rose and Jabari Parker.
Wednesday, June 21, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Cleveland Indians
First 5 rounds: Quentin Holmes (2-64), Tyler Freeman (CBB-71), Johnathan Rodriguez (3-102), Ernie Clement (4-132), Austen Wade (5-162).
Also notable: Michael Rivera (6-192), Eli Morgan (8-252), James Karinchak (9-282), Asa Lacy (31-942)
The Indians lacked a first round pick this year, but they were still able to nab a potential first round talent in the second round. They continued their upside picks in the competitive balance round and third round, then went on a long run of safety picks. Because they had that extra competitive balance pick and they got a late-first round talent in the second round, this draft isn't as disappointing as it easily could have been for Indians fans.
2-64: CF Quentin Holmes (my rank: 36)
Assuming they can sign him, this is a great pick in the second round. Holmes is a high upside center fielder with true 80 grade speed, and his whole package of tools gives him Andrew McCutchen type upside. Holmes, out of McClancy HS in Queens, New York, has been lauded by scouts for his excellent makeup and work ethic, and he won't turn 18 until July, making him one of the younger players in the draft. Holmes swing needs some work, especially around the bat path, but he has quick hands and can already get some natural loft on the ball, so the building blocks are there. Combine that with his age and work ethic, and Holmes could be a five tool player in the major leagues.
CBB-71: SS Tyler Freeman (my rank: 114)
The Indians grabbed another high-upside, strong makeup player in the competitive balance round. Freeman is a high schooler from California, where he had an extremely strong spring despite largely average tools. He has a long, flat swing, similar to first rounder Evan White, which doesn't produce much power but can get him on base often. Scouts love his competitiveness and energy, and once his swing path is tweaked and his load is timed up better with his swing, he could grow into average power. He was supposedly going to be a tough sign away from TCU, but the Indians likely drafted him high enough to lure him away.
3-102: OF Johnathan Rodriguez (unranked)
A third straight high-upside pick, Rodriguez comes from Puerto Rico, where Baseball America ranked him the island's fifth best prospect. He's raw and toolsy, and will be a project like Holmes and Freeman. Rodriguez pushes his hands very far back during his load, which could help him wait back on breaking pitches but could give him difficulty catching up to fastballs. With his strong arm and power potential, he'll fit in well as a right fielder down the line.
4-132: 2B Ernie Clement (my rank: 117)
The Indians' fourth round pick has a very unique skillset. He has excellent bat to ball skills, striking out just 31 times (3.7% of his plate appearances) in his entire three year career at the University of Virginia. This year, he kicked it up yet another notch, striking out just seven times total (2.5%). Aside from his insane ability to put the bat on the ball, though, there's not much exciting about him. He has little to no power because of his small frame and his slap style of hitting, doesn't walk much (career high 4.6% in 2017), and will be an average second baseman. He did slash .353/.400/.395 in the Cape Cod League last summer, striking out in just 5.6% of his plate appearances. Clement has a high floor of a quadruple-A journeyman, but he likely will never be an MLB starter. I gave him a Jason Tyner offensive ceiling without the speed.
31-942: LHP Asa Lacy (my rank: 78)
There is essentially a 0% chance that Lacy signs as a 31st round pick, but let's look at this pick just in case a miracle happens. I'm the high guy on Lacy, a left handed pitcher out of a high school in central Texas. The 6'4" lefty has a solid combination of floor and ceiling, as he already possesses advanced command of a full arsenal from a projectable frame. His fastball rarely bumps higher than 91, but it's easy to see him pushing his velocity into the low or even low to mid 90's in time, and he has one of the better changeups in the class. Lacy's curveball needs work, but it shows promise. Ultimately, he could come out of Texas A&M in three years as a first round pick.
Others: 5th rounder Austen Wade had a breakout year for TCU this year, slashing .333/.448/.491 with five home runs, and 15 stolen bases over 60 games so far. He has always shown an extremely advanced approach at the plate, walking in 19.6% of his plate appearances for his career, though he has also struck out in 16%. Unfortunately, he has no carrying tools and is likely a fourth outfielder down the road. 6th rounder Mike Rivera gives the Indians a third straight player who projects as an MLB backup, as he stands just 5'10" and slashed just .241/.344/.346 at Florida this year, but he is an excellent defender and works with pitchers well. 8th rounder Eli Morgan had an excellent career as a starter for Gonzaga (21-5, 3.15 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), but he'll likely end up a reliever due to his below average fastball and curveball. His carrying pitch is easily his excellent changeup, and he had strong enough results on the Cape, where he was mostly a reliever (4.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 22/5 K/BB) to make it as a bullpen arm in the pros. 9th rounder James Karinchak had an excellent sophomore season for Bryant University (12-3, 2.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), albeit in a weak Northeastern Conference, but injuries slowed down his junior campaign this year (6-3, 3.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). When healthy, he projects as a future MLB starter, but the up-and-down junior year, combined with a funky delivery, makes many scouts project him as a reliever. He has difficulty repeating his arm slot when he's not at his best, but this is a very intriguing high-risk, high-upside college pick in the ninth round.
Also notable: Michael Rivera (6-192), Eli Morgan (8-252), James Karinchak (9-282), Asa Lacy (31-942)
The Indians lacked a first round pick this year, but they were still able to nab a potential first round talent in the second round. They continued their upside picks in the competitive balance round and third round, then went on a long run of safety picks. Because they had that extra competitive balance pick and they got a late-first round talent in the second round, this draft isn't as disappointing as it easily could have been for Indians fans.
2-64: CF Quentin Holmes (my rank: 36)
Assuming they can sign him, this is a great pick in the second round. Holmes is a high upside center fielder with true 80 grade speed, and his whole package of tools gives him Andrew McCutchen type upside. Holmes, out of McClancy HS in Queens, New York, has been lauded by scouts for his excellent makeup and work ethic, and he won't turn 18 until July, making him one of the younger players in the draft. Holmes swing needs some work, especially around the bat path, but he has quick hands and can already get some natural loft on the ball, so the building blocks are there. Combine that with his age and work ethic, and Holmes could be a five tool player in the major leagues.
CBB-71: SS Tyler Freeman (my rank: 114)
The Indians grabbed another high-upside, strong makeup player in the competitive balance round. Freeman is a high schooler from California, where he had an extremely strong spring despite largely average tools. He has a long, flat swing, similar to first rounder Evan White, which doesn't produce much power but can get him on base often. Scouts love his competitiveness and energy, and once his swing path is tweaked and his load is timed up better with his swing, he could grow into average power. He was supposedly going to be a tough sign away from TCU, but the Indians likely drafted him high enough to lure him away.
3-102: OF Johnathan Rodriguez (unranked)
A third straight high-upside pick, Rodriguez comes from Puerto Rico, where Baseball America ranked him the island's fifth best prospect. He's raw and toolsy, and will be a project like Holmes and Freeman. Rodriguez pushes his hands very far back during his load, which could help him wait back on breaking pitches but could give him difficulty catching up to fastballs. With his strong arm and power potential, he'll fit in well as a right fielder down the line.
4-132: 2B Ernie Clement (my rank: 117)
The Indians' fourth round pick has a very unique skillset. He has excellent bat to ball skills, striking out just 31 times (3.7% of his plate appearances) in his entire three year career at the University of Virginia. This year, he kicked it up yet another notch, striking out just seven times total (2.5%). Aside from his insane ability to put the bat on the ball, though, there's not much exciting about him. He has little to no power because of his small frame and his slap style of hitting, doesn't walk much (career high 4.6% in 2017), and will be an average second baseman. He did slash .353/.400/.395 in the Cape Cod League last summer, striking out in just 5.6% of his plate appearances. Clement has a high floor of a quadruple-A journeyman, but he likely will never be an MLB starter. I gave him a Jason Tyner offensive ceiling without the speed.
31-942: LHP Asa Lacy (my rank: 78)
There is essentially a 0% chance that Lacy signs as a 31st round pick, but let's look at this pick just in case a miracle happens. I'm the high guy on Lacy, a left handed pitcher out of a high school in central Texas. The 6'4" lefty has a solid combination of floor and ceiling, as he already possesses advanced command of a full arsenal from a projectable frame. His fastball rarely bumps higher than 91, but it's easy to see him pushing his velocity into the low or even low to mid 90's in time, and he has one of the better changeups in the class. Lacy's curveball needs work, but it shows promise. Ultimately, he could come out of Texas A&M in three years as a first round pick.
Others: 5th rounder Austen Wade had a breakout year for TCU this year, slashing .333/.448/.491 with five home runs, and 15 stolen bases over 60 games so far. He has always shown an extremely advanced approach at the plate, walking in 19.6% of his plate appearances for his career, though he has also struck out in 16%. Unfortunately, he has no carrying tools and is likely a fourth outfielder down the road. 6th rounder Mike Rivera gives the Indians a third straight player who projects as an MLB backup, as he stands just 5'10" and slashed just .241/.344/.346 at Florida this year, but he is an excellent defender and works with pitchers well. 8th rounder Eli Morgan had an excellent career as a starter for Gonzaga (21-5, 3.15 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), but he'll likely end up a reliever due to his below average fastball and curveball. His carrying pitch is easily his excellent changeup, and he had strong enough results on the Cape, where he was mostly a reliever (4.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 22/5 K/BB) to make it as a bullpen arm in the pros. 9th rounder James Karinchak had an excellent sophomore season for Bryant University (12-3, 2.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), albeit in a weak Northeastern Conference, but injuries slowed down his junior campaign this year (6-3, 3.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). When healthy, he projects as a future MLB starter, but the up-and-down junior year, combined with a funky delivery, makes many scouts project him as a reliever. He has difficulty repeating his arm slot when he's not at his best, but this is a very intriguing high-risk, high-upside college pick in the ninth round.
Tuesday, June 20, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Chicago White Sox
First 5 rounds: Jake Burger (1-11), Gavin Sheets (2-49), Luis Gonzalez (3-87), Lincoln Henzman (4-117), Tyler Johnson (5-147).
Also notable: Kade McClure (6-177), Evan Skoug (7-207), Sam Abbott (8-237), Tate Blackman (13-387)
The White Sox employed a pretty simple draft strategy here: college, college, college. Each of their first seven picks were college players, and after they selected Washington high schooler Sam Abbott in the eighth round, the South Siders drafted another 26 straight college players. Overall, 33 of their first 34 selections came out of college, but there were some other interesting patterns. From the 20th round to the 34th round, they not only selected fifteen straight college players, but all fifteen were college seniors. They then finished the draft with five of their final six picks being high schoolers. Though their first three picks were all hitters, the White Sox were pretty diverse in their selections as far as college picks go, grabbing power (Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Evan Skoug, Craig Dedelow), speed (Luis Gonzalez), relief help (Lincoln Henzman, Tyler Johnson), starting pitching (Kade McClure), and even a water polo player (Sam Abbott) – more on that later.
1-11: 3B Jake Burger (my rank: 20)
A year after selecting power hitting college player Zack Collins in the first round, the White Sox took a similar player offensively. Jake Burger has been an absolute monster at the plate for Missouri State over the past three seasons, slashing .339/.420/.620 with 47 home runs over 176 games for the Bears. The one thing missing coming into this season was plate discipline, but he upped his walk rate to 14.1% this year while dropping his strikeout rate to 12.5%. His swing, which features a bit of an arm bar and is more based on strength than bat speed, is set up so that he needs to see the ball out of the hand to have success, and this bodes well for his future. Offensive numbers are typically inflated in the Missouri Valley Conference, where Burger plays, so don't go around thinking Burger is some generational hitter yet, but he has a great chance to be a middle-of-the-order bat for the ChiSox down the road. He'll have to be, because his defense at third base is so-so and may necessitate a move to first base, though he has gotten high marks for his work ethic.
2-49: 1B Gavin Sheets (my rank: 64)
If Burger does move to first base, that will leave the next player drafted, Gavin Sheets, in a bit of a predicament. Sheets is limited to first base defensively, but the bat has just as much upside as Burger's, even if it has a bit more risk. While Burger hit .328 with 22 home runs this year for MSU, Sheets slashed .322/.429/.634 with 20 home runs for Wake Forest. He also had a high walk rate, coming in at 15.7%, which is important because he has some adjustments he needs to make in his left handed swing. He has a lot of movement in his front shoulder both before and during his swing, causing his head to move, and and his explosive swing isn't in the zone for long. The high walk rate and low-ish strikeout rate (11.8%) bode well for his ability to make adjustments, but he does need to make them. Like Missouri State, Wake Forest tends to be a hitter-friendly environment.
3-87: CF Luis Gonzalez (my rank: 100)
Here is a third straight player from a very hitter-friendly home park, but he's not a power guy like Burger and Sheets. Instead, Gonzalez's game revolves around pretty much everything but power, and he has gotten numerous comps to Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte. Gonzalez, not related to the Luis Gonzalez who won the 2001 World Series for the Diamondbacks, slashed .361/.500/.589 with eight home runs for New Mexico, showing the potential of a future four-tool player. Heck, he even made eleven starts for the Lobos, although he wasn't nearly as good at pitching as he was at hitting (6.51 ERA, 1.87 WHIP). His 20% walk rate was among the best in college baseball, and as a left handed hitter, he has a lot going for him. The only knocks on him as a player are his small stature (skinny 6' build) and his long swing, which I believe may have difficulty translating up. He won't be a power hitter, so with his offensive value tied to getting on base, he'll need to make he can either catch up to pro pitching with his current swing or shorten it significantly.
4-117: RHP Lincoln Henzman (unranked)
Besides having a great reliever name, Lincoln Henzman took a big step forward this year as Louisville's closer, putting up a 1.72 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP through 26 appearances. Ironically, the man who Henzman replaced as closer, Zack Burdi, was drafted in the first round by the White Sox last year. He won't wow you with his stuff, coming in with a low to mid 90's sinker and a decent slider/changeup combination, but he's a competent reliever who could be the first player from this White Sox draft class to reach the majors. One drawback of him already being a reliever, though, is that his stuff has presumably already had that "jump forward" that you get when converting from the rotation, though he does have some projection left at 6'2".
5-147: RHP Tyler Johnson (my rank: 111)
The White Sox made it back-to-back relievers here, with Tyler Johnson having served as South Carolina's closer for the past two seasons. He was great in 2016 (2.42 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 59/8 K/BB), but he missed time to arm troubles this year and his command wasn't quite as good when he was on the mound (2.39 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 40/15 K/BB). Johnson stands 6'2" but his mid to upper 90's fastball can blow college hitters away, though he needs to work on adding an effective secondary pitch. He has toyed with some breaking balls, but he's mostly relied on pushing his fastball up to 100 MPH to get hitters out in the SEC rather than buckling knees with a slider or curve. He's not presently ready to pitch in the majors, but if he can make adjustments quickly in pro ball, it could be an interesting race to see if he can beat Henzman to Chicago.
7-207: C/1B Evan Skoug (my rank: 74)
Because Skoug fell to the seventh round, signability may become an issue even though he's a college junior. He entered the season on the outskirts of the first round discussion after slashing .301/.390/.502 with nine home runs as a sophomore at TCU, but his 16.2% strikeout rate scared off some evaluators and contact was seen as a red flag by most. Then he slumped horribly to begin the season before a second half surge that can give the observer numerous takeaways. Overall, he slashed .272/.380/.553 with 20 home runs, but his strikeout rate ballooned to a whopping 30.5%. His position is unclear at the moment, as he is a catcher for the Horned Frogs and is working extremely hard to remain a catcher in pro ball, but his defense is so-so at the moment and may ultimately force him to first base, putting more pressure on his bat. Offensively, Skoug has big league power, but the strikeout rate is a serious concern, and he may not be able to get to it in the majors. Scouts have lauded his work ethic and leadership skills, so that's a plus.
Others: 6th rounder Kade McClure is a massive, 6'7" right hander out of Louisville, one who has had a solid career for the Cardinals over three years (21-4, 3.21 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 216/69 K/BB). He sits in the low 90's with decent offspeed stuff, so he projects more as a back-end starter or long reliever than an impact guy. 8th rounder Sam Abbott is interesting not only because he was the only high schooler taken by the White Sox in the first 34 rounds, but also because he is one of the best water polo players in the country. At Curtis HS in Washington, he was a three time state MVP and helped the team to two state championship. All I have on him as a baseball player is that he's a power hitting first baseman. 9th rounder Craig Dedelow brings more college power to the field, having slashed .258/.336/.563 with 19 home runs for Indiana this year. 13th rounder Tate Blackman was at the center of Ole Miss' offense this year, slashing .302/.420/.525 with nine home runs to go along with nine stolen bases. There's also 14th rounder Alex Destino, a centerpiece of the South Carolina offense during his career there, and 16th rounder Logan Taylor, the third Louisville Cardinal drafted by the White Sox this year.
Also notable: Kade McClure (6-177), Evan Skoug (7-207), Sam Abbott (8-237), Tate Blackman (13-387)
The White Sox employed a pretty simple draft strategy here: college, college, college. Each of their first seven picks were college players, and after they selected Washington high schooler Sam Abbott in the eighth round, the South Siders drafted another 26 straight college players. Overall, 33 of their first 34 selections came out of college, but there were some other interesting patterns. From the 20th round to the 34th round, they not only selected fifteen straight college players, but all fifteen were college seniors. They then finished the draft with five of their final six picks being high schoolers. Though their first three picks were all hitters, the White Sox were pretty diverse in their selections as far as college picks go, grabbing power (Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Evan Skoug, Craig Dedelow), speed (Luis Gonzalez), relief help (Lincoln Henzman, Tyler Johnson), starting pitching (Kade McClure), and even a water polo player (Sam Abbott) – more on that later.
1-11: 3B Jake Burger (my rank: 20)
A year after selecting power hitting college player Zack Collins in the first round, the White Sox took a similar player offensively. Jake Burger has been an absolute monster at the plate for Missouri State over the past three seasons, slashing .339/.420/.620 with 47 home runs over 176 games for the Bears. The one thing missing coming into this season was plate discipline, but he upped his walk rate to 14.1% this year while dropping his strikeout rate to 12.5%. His swing, which features a bit of an arm bar and is more based on strength than bat speed, is set up so that he needs to see the ball out of the hand to have success, and this bodes well for his future. Offensive numbers are typically inflated in the Missouri Valley Conference, where Burger plays, so don't go around thinking Burger is some generational hitter yet, but he has a great chance to be a middle-of-the-order bat for the ChiSox down the road. He'll have to be, because his defense at third base is so-so and may necessitate a move to first base, though he has gotten high marks for his work ethic.
2-49: 1B Gavin Sheets (my rank: 64)
If Burger does move to first base, that will leave the next player drafted, Gavin Sheets, in a bit of a predicament. Sheets is limited to first base defensively, but the bat has just as much upside as Burger's, even if it has a bit more risk. While Burger hit .328 with 22 home runs this year for MSU, Sheets slashed .322/.429/.634 with 20 home runs for Wake Forest. He also had a high walk rate, coming in at 15.7%, which is important because he has some adjustments he needs to make in his left handed swing. He has a lot of movement in his front shoulder both before and during his swing, causing his head to move, and and his explosive swing isn't in the zone for long. The high walk rate and low-ish strikeout rate (11.8%) bode well for his ability to make adjustments, but he does need to make them. Like Missouri State, Wake Forest tends to be a hitter-friendly environment.
3-87: CF Luis Gonzalez (my rank: 100)
Here is a third straight player from a very hitter-friendly home park, but he's not a power guy like Burger and Sheets. Instead, Gonzalez's game revolves around pretty much everything but power, and he has gotten numerous comps to Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte. Gonzalez, not related to the Luis Gonzalez who won the 2001 World Series for the Diamondbacks, slashed .361/.500/.589 with eight home runs for New Mexico, showing the potential of a future four-tool player. Heck, he even made eleven starts for the Lobos, although he wasn't nearly as good at pitching as he was at hitting (6.51 ERA, 1.87 WHIP). His 20% walk rate was among the best in college baseball, and as a left handed hitter, he has a lot going for him. The only knocks on him as a player are his small stature (skinny 6' build) and his long swing, which I believe may have difficulty translating up. He won't be a power hitter, so with his offensive value tied to getting on base, he'll need to make he can either catch up to pro pitching with his current swing or shorten it significantly.
4-117: RHP Lincoln Henzman (unranked)
Besides having a great reliever name, Lincoln Henzman took a big step forward this year as Louisville's closer, putting up a 1.72 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP through 26 appearances. Ironically, the man who Henzman replaced as closer, Zack Burdi, was drafted in the first round by the White Sox last year. He won't wow you with his stuff, coming in with a low to mid 90's sinker and a decent slider/changeup combination, but he's a competent reliever who could be the first player from this White Sox draft class to reach the majors. One drawback of him already being a reliever, though, is that his stuff has presumably already had that "jump forward" that you get when converting from the rotation, though he does have some projection left at 6'2".
5-147: RHP Tyler Johnson (my rank: 111)
The White Sox made it back-to-back relievers here, with Tyler Johnson having served as South Carolina's closer for the past two seasons. He was great in 2016 (2.42 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 59/8 K/BB), but he missed time to arm troubles this year and his command wasn't quite as good when he was on the mound (2.39 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 40/15 K/BB). Johnson stands 6'2" but his mid to upper 90's fastball can blow college hitters away, though he needs to work on adding an effective secondary pitch. He has toyed with some breaking balls, but he's mostly relied on pushing his fastball up to 100 MPH to get hitters out in the SEC rather than buckling knees with a slider or curve. He's not presently ready to pitch in the majors, but if he can make adjustments quickly in pro ball, it could be an interesting race to see if he can beat Henzman to Chicago.
7-207: C/1B Evan Skoug (my rank: 74)
Because Skoug fell to the seventh round, signability may become an issue even though he's a college junior. He entered the season on the outskirts of the first round discussion after slashing .301/.390/.502 with nine home runs as a sophomore at TCU, but his 16.2% strikeout rate scared off some evaluators and contact was seen as a red flag by most. Then he slumped horribly to begin the season before a second half surge that can give the observer numerous takeaways. Overall, he slashed .272/.380/.553 with 20 home runs, but his strikeout rate ballooned to a whopping 30.5%. His position is unclear at the moment, as he is a catcher for the Horned Frogs and is working extremely hard to remain a catcher in pro ball, but his defense is so-so at the moment and may ultimately force him to first base, putting more pressure on his bat. Offensively, Skoug has big league power, but the strikeout rate is a serious concern, and he may not be able to get to it in the majors. Scouts have lauded his work ethic and leadership skills, so that's a plus.
Others: 6th rounder Kade McClure is a massive, 6'7" right hander out of Louisville, one who has had a solid career for the Cardinals over three years (21-4, 3.21 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 216/69 K/BB). He sits in the low 90's with decent offspeed stuff, so he projects more as a back-end starter or long reliever than an impact guy. 8th rounder Sam Abbott is interesting not only because he was the only high schooler taken by the White Sox in the first 34 rounds, but also because he is one of the best water polo players in the country. At Curtis HS in Washington, he was a three time state MVP and helped the team to two state championship. All I have on him as a baseball player is that he's a power hitting first baseman. 9th rounder Craig Dedelow brings more college power to the field, having slashed .258/.336/.563 with 19 home runs for Indiana this year. 13th rounder Tate Blackman was at the center of Ole Miss' offense this year, slashing .302/.420/.525 with nine home runs to go along with nine stolen bases. There's also 14th rounder Alex Destino, a centerpiece of the South Carolina offense during his career there, and 16th rounder Logan Taylor, the third Louisville Cardinal drafted by the White Sox this year.
Monday, June 19, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays
First 5 rounds: Logan Warmoth (1-22), Nate Pearson (1-28), Hagen Danner (2-61), Riley Adams (3-99), Kevin Smith (4-129), Cullen Large (5-159).
Also notable: Brock Lundquist (6-189), Kacy Clemens (8-249), Zach Logue (9-279), Daniel Ritcheson (23-699)
The Blue Jays had four of the first 100 picks, and they managed to use them plus their next pick to pull in five players in my top 100. Though they have just the thirteenth largest bonus pool, this may turn out to be an expensive draft, though fourth rounder Kevin Smith already signed for an at-slot, $405,100 bonus. The Jays leaned mostly offense, taking six hitters in their first seven picks, and also seemingly spurned upside for safety by grabbing just one high schooler in their first fourteen picks. Outside of Nate Pearson and their lone early-round high schooler, Hagen Danner, there isn't really much upside with this class, but we could see many of these guys in the big leagues fairly soon, at least in reserve roles. Overall, they tended to look at big programs, drafting players out of UNC, Maryland, Long Beach State, Texas, Kentucky, Wake Forest, and Texas A&M all in the first 21 rounds.
1-22: SS Logan Warmoth (my rank: 28)
I was a little bit surprised by this pick, considering the fact that there were names like Jeren Kendall, Sam Carlson, and Alex Lange still on the board, but Toronto had been tied to Warmoth for most of the spring and they got their guy. Warmoth is a low ceiling, high floor college performer who will likely replace Troy Tulowitzki at shortstop when the time comes. If he has to move off shortstop, he could put an end to the revolving door method the Blue Jays have employed at second base. He doesn't have any tools that excite, but he's a competent hitter who slashed .336/.404/.554 with 10 home runs for UNC this year, though he did at times look lost at the plate when I saw him play in May. He could develop into one of those not-so-exciting-but-valuable middle infielders, like Logan Forsythe or Zack Cozart, both of whom were also drafted out of southern schools (Arkansas and Ole Miss, respectively).
1-28: RHP Nate Pearson (my rank: 31)
Here is the big upside pick. Unlike most of the other Jays picks, Pearson has a pretty low floor, but his upside is so special that teams were considering the 6'5" righty as early as the first half of the first round. Armed with a plus-plus fastball, he created a stir just before the draft when he reportedly hit 102 MPH in a bullpen session, and his secondaries have made enough progress to the point where he was concerned a bona-fide first rounder. Pearson, a sophomore out of the Junior College of Central Florida, is still fairly raw as a pitcher, but his slider and changeup have made significant progress this spring, as has his command. He'll have to continue to improve those offspeeds and his command if he wants to start, but he can easily fall back on a bullpen career.
2-61: C Hagen Danner (my rank: 41)
I ranked Danner 41st...as a pitcher. Yet another two way player in this draft, the Blue Jays may have themselves a steal here in the late second round. A longtime top prospect for this draft, some of the shine has worn off for Danner, out of Huntington Beach High School in SoCal, but he's still a legitimate prospect. I preferred him as a pitcher, but shoulder soreness plus an extreme lack of catching in this draft makes it completely defensible for Toronto to select him as a catcher. Danner is a strong young man, showing big power at the plate and big arm strength behind it. He's a capable defender that should stick as a catcher, though how much contact he can make will control his rise through the minors. He's committed to UCLA and was drafted slightly below where some thought he would be drafted, so he'll likely be a tough sign.
3-99: C Riley Adams (my rank: 70)
Here's another catcher that the Blue Jays grabbed much later than his ranking would predict. Teams were reportedly looking at Adams for an underslot deal as early as the late first round, so getting him here with his big time power is a steal, especially for a college player who lacks the leverage to have high bonus demands. Is a similar player to Danner, but with even bigger power and bigger swing and miss concerns. The University of San Diego's catcher slashed .312/.424/.564 with 13 home runs this year, and while teams would have liked to see a strikeout rate lower than the 22.8% he put up in a mid-major conference, that's solid production for a guy who can stick behind the plate. Standing 6'5" with a lean build, he's an imposing figure that could grow into even more power, but he'll have to prove he can catch up to pro pitching. Between Adams and Danner, the Blue Jays should get at least one MLB caliber catcher out of this draft.
4-129: SS Kevin Smith (my rank: 93)
Smith has a bit of an interesting profile. He's young for a college junior, not turning 21 until July, and he has the athleticism and arm strength necessary to stay at shortstop. That said, the Maryland Terrapin isn't the fastest guy on the field and is known much more for his power than for his pure hitting ability. He never really put up big numbers for Maryland, slashing .268/.323/.552 with 13 home runs this year and striking out in 21.1% of his plate appearances while walking in just 6.3%. He did perform well on the Cape last summer (.301/.348/.427, 2 HR), and he could put up Kelly Johnson-type numbers if everything works out. He has more power than even first rounder Warmoth, but he hasn't proven he can get to it.
Others: 5th rounder Cullen Large was a three year performer at William & Mary, slashing a career .323/.399/.475 with 16 home runs over 169 games. He's a solid all-around hitter who can hold his own at second base, so here's yet another high-floor option in the infield. 6th rounder Brock Lundquist is, you guessed it, another college player with a track record of success. The Long Beach State outfielder had a bit of a disappointing season by slashing .277/.388/.429 with four home runs for the Dirtbags this year, though he did dramatically improve his walk rate to 11.4%. He may be more of a project, because he has the power and strength to be a multi-category performer, but he's inconsistent with his mechanics and leaks a lot of power in his swing. 8th rounder Kacy Clemens, out of UT-Austin, is the son of Roger Clemens, but he'll be a first baseman in the Toronto system. The Texas senior had a power breakout this year, slashing .305/.414/.532 with 12 home runs for the Longhorns, walking in 14.9% of his plate appearances. 23rd rounder Daniel Ritcheson just missed my top 150 rankings, as he is a high-upside right handed pitcher with some maturity issues. He likely won't sign this late in the draft and instead honor his commitment to San Diego State, but he already has a power fastball/slider combination, though the slider needs tightening. Teams weren't sold on his ability to handle pro ball yet due to his tendency to get frustrated easily on the mound, and spending three years maturing at school could do him a lot of good.
Also notable: Brock Lundquist (6-189), Kacy Clemens (8-249), Zach Logue (9-279), Daniel Ritcheson (23-699)
The Blue Jays had four of the first 100 picks, and they managed to use them plus their next pick to pull in five players in my top 100. Though they have just the thirteenth largest bonus pool, this may turn out to be an expensive draft, though fourth rounder Kevin Smith already signed for an at-slot, $405,100 bonus. The Jays leaned mostly offense, taking six hitters in their first seven picks, and also seemingly spurned upside for safety by grabbing just one high schooler in their first fourteen picks. Outside of Nate Pearson and their lone early-round high schooler, Hagen Danner, there isn't really much upside with this class, but we could see many of these guys in the big leagues fairly soon, at least in reserve roles. Overall, they tended to look at big programs, drafting players out of UNC, Maryland, Long Beach State, Texas, Kentucky, Wake Forest, and Texas A&M all in the first 21 rounds.
1-22: SS Logan Warmoth (my rank: 28)
I was a little bit surprised by this pick, considering the fact that there were names like Jeren Kendall, Sam Carlson, and Alex Lange still on the board, but Toronto had been tied to Warmoth for most of the spring and they got their guy. Warmoth is a low ceiling, high floor college performer who will likely replace Troy Tulowitzki at shortstop when the time comes. If he has to move off shortstop, he could put an end to the revolving door method the Blue Jays have employed at second base. He doesn't have any tools that excite, but he's a competent hitter who slashed .336/.404/.554 with 10 home runs for UNC this year, though he did at times look lost at the plate when I saw him play in May. He could develop into one of those not-so-exciting-but-valuable middle infielders, like Logan Forsythe or Zack Cozart, both of whom were also drafted out of southern schools (Arkansas and Ole Miss, respectively).
1-28: RHP Nate Pearson (my rank: 31)
Here is the big upside pick. Unlike most of the other Jays picks, Pearson has a pretty low floor, but his upside is so special that teams were considering the 6'5" righty as early as the first half of the first round. Armed with a plus-plus fastball, he created a stir just before the draft when he reportedly hit 102 MPH in a bullpen session, and his secondaries have made enough progress to the point where he was concerned a bona-fide first rounder. Pearson, a sophomore out of the Junior College of Central Florida, is still fairly raw as a pitcher, but his slider and changeup have made significant progress this spring, as has his command. He'll have to continue to improve those offspeeds and his command if he wants to start, but he can easily fall back on a bullpen career.
2-61: C Hagen Danner (my rank: 41)
I ranked Danner 41st...as a pitcher. Yet another two way player in this draft, the Blue Jays may have themselves a steal here in the late second round. A longtime top prospect for this draft, some of the shine has worn off for Danner, out of Huntington Beach High School in SoCal, but he's still a legitimate prospect. I preferred him as a pitcher, but shoulder soreness plus an extreme lack of catching in this draft makes it completely defensible for Toronto to select him as a catcher. Danner is a strong young man, showing big power at the plate and big arm strength behind it. He's a capable defender that should stick as a catcher, though how much contact he can make will control his rise through the minors. He's committed to UCLA and was drafted slightly below where some thought he would be drafted, so he'll likely be a tough sign.
3-99: C Riley Adams (my rank: 70)
Here's another catcher that the Blue Jays grabbed much later than his ranking would predict. Teams were reportedly looking at Adams for an underslot deal as early as the late first round, so getting him here with his big time power is a steal, especially for a college player who lacks the leverage to have high bonus demands. Is a similar player to Danner, but with even bigger power and bigger swing and miss concerns. The University of San Diego's catcher slashed .312/.424/.564 with 13 home runs this year, and while teams would have liked to see a strikeout rate lower than the 22.8% he put up in a mid-major conference, that's solid production for a guy who can stick behind the plate. Standing 6'5" with a lean build, he's an imposing figure that could grow into even more power, but he'll have to prove he can catch up to pro pitching. Between Adams and Danner, the Blue Jays should get at least one MLB caliber catcher out of this draft.
4-129: SS Kevin Smith (my rank: 93)
Smith has a bit of an interesting profile. He's young for a college junior, not turning 21 until July, and he has the athleticism and arm strength necessary to stay at shortstop. That said, the Maryland Terrapin isn't the fastest guy on the field and is known much more for his power than for his pure hitting ability. He never really put up big numbers for Maryland, slashing .268/.323/.552 with 13 home runs this year and striking out in 21.1% of his plate appearances while walking in just 6.3%. He did perform well on the Cape last summer (.301/.348/.427, 2 HR), and he could put up Kelly Johnson-type numbers if everything works out. He has more power than even first rounder Warmoth, but he hasn't proven he can get to it.
Others: 5th rounder Cullen Large was a three year performer at William & Mary, slashing a career .323/.399/.475 with 16 home runs over 169 games. He's a solid all-around hitter who can hold his own at second base, so here's yet another high-floor option in the infield. 6th rounder Brock Lundquist is, you guessed it, another college player with a track record of success. The Long Beach State outfielder had a bit of a disappointing season by slashing .277/.388/.429 with four home runs for the Dirtbags this year, though he did dramatically improve his walk rate to 11.4%. He may be more of a project, because he has the power and strength to be a multi-category performer, but he's inconsistent with his mechanics and leaks a lot of power in his swing. 8th rounder Kacy Clemens, out of UT-Austin, is the son of Roger Clemens, but he'll be a first baseman in the Toronto system. The Texas senior had a power breakout this year, slashing .305/.414/.532 with 12 home runs for the Longhorns, walking in 14.9% of his plate appearances. 23rd rounder Daniel Ritcheson just missed my top 150 rankings, as he is a high-upside right handed pitcher with some maturity issues. He likely won't sign this late in the draft and instead honor his commitment to San Diego State, but he already has a power fastball/slider combination, though the slider needs tightening. Teams weren't sold on his ability to handle pro ball yet due to his tendency to get frustrated easily on the mound, and spending three years maturing at school could do him a lot of good.
Sunday, June 18, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Tampa Bay Rays
First 5 rounds: Brendan McKay (1-4), Drew Rasmussen (CBA-31), Michael Mercado (2-40), Taylor Walls (3-79), Drew Strotman (4-109), Josh Fleming (5-139).
Also notable: Zach Rutherford (6-169), Phoenix Sanders (10-269), Gavin Williams (30-889), Chris Williams (31-919), J.J. Schwarz (38-1129).
The Rays are a small-market team, so they know that nailing the draft is crucial to success. Luckily for Tampa Bay, they did a pretty good job this year. The Rays are one of the better teams in baseball when it comes to developing pitching, but they have struggled to develop raw hitting talent. They know this, so they took 9.5 pitchers with their first twelve picks (we'll get to McKay) and didn't pop a high school hitter until the 37th round. I like what they got, though, drafting to their strength in development so they can trade for/sign what they need later.
1-4: 1B/LHP Brendan McKay (my rank: 3)
Brendan McKay was the most interesting player in this draft, so this will be a long paragraph. A favorite to go #1 overall throughout the spring, he fell to the Rays at #4, who snatched him up with glee. The hitter vs pitcher debate has raged since he was a prep star at Beaver Falls High School in western Pennsylvania, and we still don't have clarity on it today. The Rays officially drafted him as a first baseman after he slashed .328/.432/.533 with 27 home runs over three seasons Louisville, one of the best teams in the country, but McKay will actually play both ways, at least in the short run. In addition to his monster career at the plate for the Cardinals, McKay has also gone 31-10 with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 53 games (46 starts). The Rays will likely make him a hitter, where he has both a high floor and a good ceiling as an All Star first baseman. On the mound, he is as safe a bet as any to start in the majors, and he realistically projects as a mid-rotation starter with a low 90's fastball and one of the best curveballs in the class, all of which he commands well. I said earlier that the Rays struggle to develop hitting to its full potential; that is OK with McKay, because he's so advanced at the plate (and the on the mound) that he won't need much developing anyways. For now, it will be exciting to see a two-way star in the minor leagues.
CBA-31: RHP Drew Rasmussen (my rank: 86)
It's tough to get a read on Rasmussen because last year's Tommy John surgery limited him to just twelve appearances in the past two seasons, but he has performed well in those games, going 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP while striking out 64 to just 15 walks for Oregon State. The 6'1" righty throws in the low to mid 90's with a decent slider/changeup combination, and he could be a big league starter if he can stay healthy. However, he's more likely to end up in the bullpen, especially given Tampa Bay's starting pitching depth in their system, where his fastball can touch the upper 90's and he can focus on one offspeed pitch. He did throw a perfect game against Washington State as a freshman in 2015.
2-40: RHP Michael Mercado (my rank: 50)
I really like this pick, especially for the Rays. Mercado is an advanced high school righty with a low 90's fastball that he can command well, and while his curveball, cutter, and two-seamer are closer to above average than plus, he has a feel for all of them, giving him a relatively high floor for a high school pitcher. Skinny and projectable, he has a higher ceiling than most pitchability right handers, and the Rays have gotten the most out of pitching prospects like this in the past (Jacob Faria, Chih-Wei Hu).
3-79: SS Taylor Walls (my rank: 115)
I don't love this pick as much as the Mercado pick, but Walls is exactly the type of hitter the Rays like: advanced at the plate, athletic in the field. After a huge sophomore season for Florida State (.355/.479/.516, 6 HR), he saw his stock fall when he struggled in 2017 (.276/.421/.428, 8 HR), though he did get hot down the stretch, which I failed to account for in my rankings. Walls has an innate ability to get on base, drawing 174 walks over three years at FSU to give himself a career OBP of .426. Though he hit 14 home runs during his career for the Seminoles, I doubt he ever hits for even average power, with a swing that is geared towards line drives and one that swings and misses more when he tries to hit for power. I saw him play when FSU came to Virginia Tech in March, and I came away thinking of him as a future Greg Garcia-like utility guy.
6-169: SS Zach Rutherford (my rank: 113)
Rutherford is a similar player to Walls as a college shortstop, but he is scrappier, has less power, and less of a keen eye than Walls. He slashed .332/.397/.472 with a pair of home runs for Old Dominion University this year, but what makes him stand out is his hard-nosed, competitive attitude. He doesn't have the pretties mechanics, but he will compete with Walls going up the ladder to see which can crack the Rays' bench, or starting lineup, first.
38-1129: C/1B J.J. Schwarz (my rank: 144)
Schwarz is a bit of an enigma. His monster freshman season in 2015 (.332/.398/.629, 18 HR) in the SEC put him on the map as a potential first overall pick in 2017, but he has struggled to live up to expectations over the past two seasons for Florida (.281/.383/.463, 19 HR). His stock really fell when he looked completely lost out of the gate this year, and only a late-season surge was able to save his draft stock from disappearing completely. He has a clean swing, but SEC pitchers have been able to expose holes in his pitch recognition fairly easily, and because Mike Rivera spent the season as the Gators' starting catcher, scouts didn't get many looks at Schwarz behind the plate. It's unlikely that he sticks back there, but he does have a chance to be a catcher. However, because he was drafted in the 38th round, I think it's highly likely that he returns to school and tries to improve his stock.
Others: 4th rounder Drew Strotman is a power pitcher out of St. Mary's College of California, where he has never really been a big performer, but his stuff will play well in the bullpen. Once he converts to relieving full time, his fastball could sit in the mid 90's while his slider could reach the upper 80's. 5th rounder Josh Fleming is the first player ever drafted out of Webster University in Missouri, where he was arguably Division III's best pitcher with a 90 MPH fastball that he commanded extremely well. He's a project because his secondaries need lots of work, but the Rays know what they're doing when it comes to young pitching. 10th rounder Phoenix Sanders was the ace of the South Florida pitching staff this year, going 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP for the Bulls, striking out 109 in 97 innings. Though undersized at 5'10", his proven track record in the American Athletic Conference is a good get in the tenth round. 30th rounder Gavin Williams cracked my rankings at #119, but he's unlikely to sign this low in the draft. Williams, a high schooler from North Carolina, stands 6'6" and can already run his fastball into the mid 90's, and his curveball could be a plus pitch if developed right. Currently, it's a softer pitch, and his mechanics need an overhaul, but he's a high ceiling guy who will likely end up at East Carolina University. In the 31st round, Tampa Bay picked up Clemson catcher Chris Williams, who shows big time power (14 HR this year) but has trouble getting on base consistently (.320 OBP), and he may have trouble catching up to pro pitching. It looks like he'll return to Clemson for his senior year.
Also notable: Zach Rutherford (6-169), Phoenix Sanders (10-269), Gavin Williams (30-889), Chris Williams (31-919), J.J. Schwarz (38-1129).
The Rays are a small-market team, so they know that nailing the draft is crucial to success. Luckily for Tampa Bay, they did a pretty good job this year. The Rays are one of the better teams in baseball when it comes to developing pitching, but they have struggled to develop raw hitting talent. They know this, so they took 9.5 pitchers with their first twelve picks (we'll get to McKay) and didn't pop a high school hitter until the 37th round. I like what they got, though, drafting to their strength in development so they can trade for/sign what they need later.
1-4: 1B/LHP Brendan McKay (my rank: 3)
Brendan McKay was the most interesting player in this draft, so this will be a long paragraph. A favorite to go #1 overall throughout the spring, he fell to the Rays at #4, who snatched him up with glee. The hitter vs pitcher debate has raged since he was a prep star at Beaver Falls High School in western Pennsylvania, and we still don't have clarity on it today. The Rays officially drafted him as a first baseman after he slashed .328/.432/.533 with 27 home runs over three seasons Louisville, one of the best teams in the country, but McKay will actually play both ways, at least in the short run. In addition to his monster career at the plate for the Cardinals, McKay has also gone 31-10 with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 53 games (46 starts). The Rays will likely make him a hitter, where he has both a high floor and a good ceiling as an All Star first baseman. On the mound, he is as safe a bet as any to start in the majors, and he realistically projects as a mid-rotation starter with a low 90's fastball and one of the best curveballs in the class, all of which he commands well. I said earlier that the Rays struggle to develop hitting to its full potential; that is OK with McKay, because he's so advanced at the plate (and the on the mound) that he won't need much developing anyways. For now, it will be exciting to see a two-way star in the minor leagues.
CBA-31: RHP Drew Rasmussen (my rank: 86)
It's tough to get a read on Rasmussen because last year's Tommy John surgery limited him to just twelve appearances in the past two seasons, but he has performed well in those games, going 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP while striking out 64 to just 15 walks for Oregon State. The 6'1" righty throws in the low to mid 90's with a decent slider/changeup combination, and he could be a big league starter if he can stay healthy. However, he's more likely to end up in the bullpen, especially given Tampa Bay's starting pitching depth in their system, where his fastball can touch the upper 90's and he can focus on one offspeed pitch. He did throw a perfect game against Washington State as a freshman in 2015.
2-40: RHP Michael Mercado (my rank: 50)
I really like this pick, especially for the Rays. Mercado is an advanced high school righty with a low 90's fastball that he can command well, and while his curveball, cutter, and two-seamer are closer to above average than plus, he has a feel for all of them, giving him a relatively high floor for a high school pitcher. Skinny and projectable, he has a higher ceiling than most pitchability right handers, and the Rays have gotten the most out of pitching prospects like this in the past (Jacob Faria, Chih-Wei Hu).
3-79: SS Taylor Walls (my rank: 115)
I don't love this pick as much as the Mercado pick, but Walls is exactly the type of hitter the Rays like: advanced at the plate, athletic in the field. After a huge sophomore season for Florida State (.355/.479/.516, 6 HR), he saw his stock fall when he struggled in 2017 (.276/.421/.428, 8 HR), though he did get hot down the stretch, which I failed to account for in my rankings. Walls has an innate ability to get on base, drawing 174 walks over three years at FSU to give himself a career OBP of .426. Though he hit 14 home runs during his career for the Seminoles, I doubt he ever hits for even average power, with a swing that is geared towards line drives and one that swings and misses more when he tries to hit for power. I saw him play when FSU came to Virginia Tech in March, and I came away thinking of him as a future Greg Garcia-like utility guy.
6-169: SS Zach Rutherford (my rank: 113)
Rutherford is a similar player to Walls as a college shortstop, but he is scrappier, has less power, and less of a keen eye than Walls. He slashed .332/.397/.472 with a pair of home runs for Old Dominion University this year, but what makes him stand out is his hard-nosed, competitive attitude. He doesn't have the pretties mechanics, but he will compete with Walls going up the ladder to see which can crack the Rays' bench, or starting lineup, first.
38-1129: C/1B J.J. Schwarz (my rank: 144)
Schwarz is a bit of an enigma. His monster freshman season in 2015 (.332/.398/.629, 18 HR) in the SEC put him on the map as a potential first overall pick in 2017, but he has struggled to live up to expectations over the past two seasons for Florida (.281/.383/.463, 19 HR). His stock really fell when he looked completely lost out of the gate this year, and only a late-season surge was able to save his draft stock from disappearing completely. He has a clean swing, but SEC pitchers have been able to expose holes in his pitch recognition fairly easily, and because Mike Rivera spent the season as the Gators' starting catcher, scouts didn't get many looks at Schwarz behind the plate. It's unlikely that he sticks back there, but he does have a chance to be a catcher. However, because he was drafted in the 38th round, I think it's highly likely that he returns to school and tries to improve his stock.
Others: 4th rounder Drew Strotman is a power pitcher out of St. Mary's College of California, where he has never really been a big performer, but his stuff will play well in the bullpen. Once he converts to relieving full time, his fastball could sit in the mid 90's while his slider could reach the upper 80's. 5th rounder Josh Fleming is the first player ever drafted out of Webster University in Missouri, where he was arguably Division III's best pitcher with a 90 MPH fastball that he commanded extremely well. He's a project because his secondaries need lots of work, but the Rays know what they're doing when it comes to young pitching. 10th rounder Phoenix Sanders was the ace of the South Florida pitching staff this year, going 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP for the Bulls, striking out 109 in 97 innings. Though undersized at 5'10", his proven track record in the American Athletic Conference is a good get in the tenth round. 30th rounder Gavin Williams cracked my rankings at #119, but he's unlikely to sign this low in the draft. Williams, a high schooler from North Carolina, stands 6'6" and can already run his fastball into the mid 90's, and his curveball could be a plus pitch if developed right. Currently, it's a softer pitch, and his mechanics need an overhaul, but he's a high ceiling guy who will likely end up at East Carolina University. In the 31st round, Tampa Bay picked up Clemson catcher Chris Williams, who shows big time power (14 HR this year) but has trouble getting on base consistently (.320 OBP), and he may have trouble catching up to pro pitching. It looks like he'll return to Clemson for his senior year.
Saturday, June 17, 2017
2017 Draft Review: New York Yankees
First 5 rounds: Clarke Schmidt (1-16), Matt Sauer (2-54), Trevor Stephan (3-92), Canaan Smith (4-122), Glenn Otto (5-152).
Also notable: Dalton Lehnen (6-182), Tristan Beck (29-872), Jake Mangum (30-902), Tanner Burns (37-1112).
The Yankees employed an interesting draft strategy here, leaning heavily on right handed pitching, as nine of their first eleven picks were right handed pitchers, an a tenth was a left handed pitcher. However, they did a good job in the early rounds of at least diversifying the types of pitchers they drafted (more on that below). It looks like they will try to cut a deal with first rounder Clarke Schmidt, and use that saved money to try to sign second rounder Matt Sauer and possibly fallers Tristan Beck and Tanner Burns, as Jake Mangum has said he will not sign. The Yankees have been pretty good at developing pitching lately, with homegrown guys like Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Giovanny Gallegos, Chance Adams, and Domingo Acevedo making or looking to make an impact on the big league club. Additionally, former first rounders Ian Clarkin and James Kaprielian have run into their share of issues, but they are 22 and 23 respectively and far from being lost causes. With all this new pitching coming into the system, those ranks could grow even larger.
1-16: RHP Clarke Schmidt (my rank: 34)
The Yankees reached down the board for a money saver here, but Schmidt could easily end up providing first round value for New York in his own right. The South Carolina ace was 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP when he went down with Tommy John surgery in April, potentially pushing himself into top ten consideration had he stayed healthy and maintained the performance. However, Schmidt had durability questions before the injury, and missing a year gives more grounds for concern. That said, he doesn't have too many weaknesses on the mound, with a low 90's sinker that will play well in Yankee Stadium and a slider/changeup combo that gives him one of the better arsenals in the class.
2-54: RHP Matt Sauer (my rank: 29)
As you can see, I ranked Sauer slightly higher than Schmidt, though Sauer will be much more expensive as a high schooler with a commitment to Arizona. Sauer is a raw right handed pitcher, though he has a very high ceiling. He has terrible mechanics, but he still runs his fastball into the mid 90's with a slider that is absolutely nasty on the right days. If he's so good while doing everything wrong, imagine how good he can be once he starts doing things right. Of course, with the need to rework his delivery, there is heightened risk, and he could very well end up in the bullpen if he continues to use lots of effort in his delivery.
3-92: RHP Trevor Stephan (my rank: 104)
Stephan is a 6'5" college righty from Arkansas, with one of the better fastballs in the draft. It sits in the low to mid 90's, and he commands it well to help it play up. His slider and changeup need work, though both secondaries showed progress this year and he could cut it as a starter if he continues with the trajectory he's currently on.
4-122: OF Canaan Smith (unranked)
No, not the country singer. A catcher in high school, the Yankees drafted their lone hitter of the first eleven rounds as an outfielder. According to Baseball America, Smith walked 57 times this year, which is among the top ten single season totals in high school history, so he obviously has a patient approach. There's thunder in his left handed bat, too, though he'll need to learn to get his upper and lower halves on time together. It's a very interesting offensive package, one that will require some fine tuning but one that could pay off in a big way down the road.
5-152: RHP Glenn Otto (my rank: 105)
Back to the right handed pitchers. Otto has been a well-known name for the Rice Owls for some time now, spending his entire career in the bullpen and serving the last two seasons as the team's closer. He wasn't quite as dominant as teams would have hoped for in 2017, which is why he slid to the fifth round, but he brings a plus fastball/curveball combination from a durable, 6'4" frame. Some teams think he can start, and I'm not sure how the Yankees feel, but command issues plus the lack of a third pitch will make that difficult. He could be in the Bronx bullpen fairly soon if he remains a reliever.
29-872: RHP Tristan Beck (my rank: 33)
Tristan Beck was in the running to be drafted in the top ten picks before he blew out his back and had to miss the season, but he still had a chance of going in the top 30-40 picks if he hadn't fallen due to (what my guess is) signability. A draft-eligible sophomore, if he doesn't sign with New York, he'll be able to return to Stanford as a redshirt-sophomore and still have plenty of leverage in next year's draft. When he's healthy, Beck shows a full arsenal that could make him an above-average MLB starting pitcher if not better, and he would have had one of the higher floors in this draft class had he not gotten hurt. Yankees fans should be excited if Beck signs, but I doubt it happens in the 29th round.
37-1112: RHP Tanner Burns (my rank: 43)
Burns is another right handed pitcher (sense the theme?) that fell due to signability, and he probably has even less of a chance of signing than Beck. Burns is a stocky, 6' Alabama high schooler who has as high a floor as any high school pitcher (this is the only time you will hear "floor" and "high school pitcher" in the same sentence). A very competent moundsman, he throws in the low 90's but accompanies his fastball with a solid curveball and a decent changeup. He commands it all well, but it looks like he's headed to Auburn, where he could turn himself into a Griffin Canning-type pitcher in three years.
Others: 6th rounder Dalton Lehnen has the distinction of being one of only two players to have been drafted out of a school in South Dakota this year, the other being SD State catcher Luke Ringhofer, who went to the Orioles in the 22nd round. Lehnen, out of Augustana College, has a profile very similar to that of Trevor Stephan, though Lehnen is left handed and less proven. Though I attend Virginia Tech, I have gotten surprisingly few chances to see 15th rounder Aaron McGarity throw, as he was limited to just ten appearances last year and seemed to rarely pitch when I was at the games this year. In the few times I did get to see the senior right hander throw, he ran his fastball into the low 90's and flashed a power breaking ball that could miss bats. At 6'3", 180 lbs, he is more projectable than the typical 22 year old, but he'll have to improve his command and prove he can hold up to a full season's work if he wants to cut it in pro ball. 30th rounder Jake Mangum ranked 143rd on my list as a speedy leadoff type at Mississippi State, but he has already announced that he will not sign, making any discussion here moot. Mangum's freshman season rocked the SEC, as he slashed .408/.458/.510 for the Bulldogs, but he slumped to .324/.380/.385 as a draft-eligible sophomore this year. 33rd rounder Jacob Stevens, you guessed it, a right handed pitcher, will likely return to school to re-establish his draft stock. He dominated as a freshman at Boston College last year (2.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 70/33 K/BB as a starter), but struggled as a draft-eligible sophomore this year (5.10 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 73/42 K/BB). If the Yankees sign him and get him back to his 2016 form, this is a steal in the late rounds.
Also notable: Dalton Lehnen (6-182), Tristan Beck (29-872), Jake Mangum (30-902), Tanner Burns (37-1112).
The Yankees employed an interesting draft strategy here, leaning heavily on right handed pitching, as nine of their first eleven picks were right handed pitchers, an a tenth was a left handed pitcher. However, they did a good job in the early rounds of at least diversifying the types of pitchers they drafted (more on that below). It looks like they will try to cut a deal with first rounder Clarke Schmidt, and use that saved money to try to sign second rounder Matt Sauer and possibly fallers Tristan Beck and Tanner Burns, as Jake Mangum has said he will not sign. The Yankees have been pretty good at developing pitching lately, with homegrown guys like Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Giovanny Gallegos, Chance Adams, and Domingo Acevedo making or looking to make an impact on the big league club. Additionally, former first rounders Ian Clarkin and James Kaprielian have run into their share of issues, but they are 22 and 23 respectively and far from being lost causes. With all this new pitching coming into the system, those ranks could grow even larger.
1-16: RHP Clarke Schmidt (my rank: 34)
The Yankees reached down the board for a money saver here, but Schmidt could easily end up providing first round value for New York in his own right. The South Carolina ace was 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP when he went down with Tommy John surgery in April, potentially pushing himself into top ten consideration had he stayed healthy and maintained the performance. However, Schmidt had durability questions before the injury, and missing a year gives more grounds for concern. That said, he doesn't have too many weaknesses on the mound, with a low 90's sinker that will play well in Yankee Stadium and a slider/changeup combo that gives him one of the better arsenals in the class.
2-54: RHP Matt Sauer (my rank: 29)
As you can see, I ranked Sauer slightly higher than Schmidt, though Sauer will be much more expensive as a high schooler with a commitment to Arizona. Sauer is a raw right handed pitcher, though he has a very high ceiling. He has terrible mechanics, but he still runs his fastball into the mid 90's with a slider that is absolutely nasty on the right days. If he's so good while doing everything wrong, imagine how good he can be once he starts doing things right. Of course, with the need to rework his delivery, there is heightened risk, and he could very well end up in the bullpen if he continues to use lots of effort in his delivery.
3-92: RHP Trevor Stephan (my rank: 104)
Stephan is a 6'5" college righty from Arkansas, with one of the better fastballs in the draft. It sits in the low to mid 90's, and he commands it well to help it play up. His slider and changeup need work, though both secondaries showed progress this year and he could cut it as a starter if he continues with the trajectory he's currently on.
4-122: OF Canaan Smith (unranked)
No, not the country singer. A catcher in high school, the Yankees drafted their lone hitter of the first eleven rounds as an outfielder. According to Baseball America, Smith walked 57 times this year, which is among the top ten single season totals in high school history, so he obviously has a patient approach. There's thunder in his left handed bat, too, though he'll need to learn to get his upper and lower halves on time together. It's a very interesting offensive package, one that will require some fine tuning but one that could pay off in a big way down the road.
5-152: RHP Glenn Otto (my rank: 105)
Back to the right handed pitchers. Otto has been a well-known name for the Rice Owls for some time now, spending his entire career in the bullpen and serving the last two seasons as the team's closer. He wasn't quite as dominant as teams would have hoped for in 2017, which is why he slid to the fifth round, but he brings a plus fastball/curveball combination from a durable, 6'4" frame. Some teams think he can start, and I'm not sure how the Yankees feel, but command issues plus the lack of a third pitch will make that difficult. He could be in the Bronx bullpen fairly soon if he remains a reliever.
29-872: RHP Tristan Beck (my rank: 33)
Tristan Beck was in the running to be drafted in the top ten picks before he blew out his back and had to miss the season, but he still had a chance of going in the top 30-40 picks if he hadn't fallen due to (what my guess is) signability. A draft-eligible sophomore, if he doesn't sign with New York, he'll be able to return to Stanford as a redshirt-sophomore and still have plenty of leverage in next year's draft. When he's healthy, Beck shows a full arsenal that could make him an above-average MLB starting pitcher if not better, and he would have had one of the higher floors in this draft class had he not gotten hurt. Yankees fans should be excited if Beck signs, but I doubt it happens in the 29th round.
37-1112: RHP Tanner Burns (my rank: 43)
Burns is another right handed pitcher (sense the theme?) that fell due to signability, and he probably has even less of a chance of signing than Beck. Burns is a stocky, 6' Alabama high schooler who has as high a floor as any high school pitcher (this is the only time you will hear "floor" and "high school pitcher" in the same sentence). A very competent moundsman, he throws in the low 90's but accompanies his fastball with a solid curveball and a decent changeup. He commands it all well, but it looks like he's headed to Auburn, where he could turn himself into a Griffin Canning-type pitcher in three years.
Others: 6th rounder Dalton Lehnen has the distinction of being one of only two players to have been drafted out of a school in South Dakota this year, the other being SD State catcher Luke Ringhofer, who went to the Orioles in the 22nd round. Lehnen, out of Augustana College, has a profile very similar to that of Trevor Stephan, though Lehnen is left handed and less proven. Though I attend Virginia Tech, I have gotten surprisingly few chances to see 15th rounder Aaron McGarity throw, as he was limited to just ten appearances last year and seemed to rarely pitch when I was at the games this year. In the few times I did get to see the senior right hander throw, he ran his fastball into the low 90's and flashed a power breaking ball that could miss bats. At 6'3", 180 lbs, he is more projectable than the typical 22 year old, but he'll have to improve his command and prove he can hold up to a full season's work if he wants to cut it in pro ball. 30th rounder Jake Mangum ranked 143rd on my list as a speedy leadoff type at Mississippi State, but he has already announced that he will not sign, making any discussion here moot. Mangum's freshman season rocked the SEC, as he slashed .408/.458/.510 for the Bulldogs, but he slumped to .324/.380/.385 as a draft-eligible sophomore this year. 33rd rounder Jacob Stevens, you guessed it, a right handed pitcher, will likely return to school to re-establish his draft stock. He dominated as a freshman at Boston College last year (2.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 70/33 K/BB as a starter), but struggled as a draft-eligible sophomore this year (5.10 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 73/42 K/BB). If the Yankees sign him and get him back to his 2016 form, this is a steal in the late rounds.
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