2023 Dugout Edge MLB Awards

American League MVP

Winner: DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels.
Stat line: 44 HR, .304/.412/.654, 20 SB, 180 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 135 games.

Stat line: 10-5, 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 4.00 FIP, 167/55 K/BB in 132 innings.
Just when you think Shohei Ohtani can't get any better, he gets better. In fact, if we completely disregarded his pitching, he would still be in serious contention for the AL MVP Award. Even as a DH, he led American League hitters in fWAR and finished fourth in bWAR due to an elite 180 wRC+, nine points ahead of second place Corey Seager (169) who played in sixteen fewer games. Not only did he lead the AL in fWAR in wRC+, but he also did so in home runs, extra base hits (78), on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, wOBA (.433), runs created above average (60.6), and just about every other comprehensive hitting statistic you can think of. It's hard to dispute that Shohei Ohtani was the best hitter in the American League this year, period. But then we also get to consider his pitching. While he wasn't quite the ace we saw last season, he was still a well above average starting pitcher that made 23 starts with a 72 ERA- (28% better than league average) and put up 2.4 more fWAR, bringing his total to 9.0 on the season. Unfortunately we won't get to see him pitch next year, perhaps opening up the AL MVP race a little bit (if he's even in the AL), but for 2023 he deserves to win the AL MVP Award unanimously.

Runner-up: SS Corey Seager, Texas Rangers.
Stat line: 33 HR, .327/.390/.623, 2 SB, 169 wRC+, 6.1 fWAR in 119 games.
After Ohtani, the rest of the AL MVP field is wide open. For me, Corey Seager comes out on top, and the fact that he did so despite spending a couple stints on the IL and playing just 119 games speaks to how good he was when he was on the field. He led all American League hitters not named Ohtani in wRC+, extra base hits (75), batting average, slugging percentage, wOBA (.419), and runs created above average (39.5), the latter of which is a cumulative stat that he compiled in a dozen or more fewer games than his competition. Even when the Rangers slumped, his bat never went cold and he posted an OPS of .885 or higher in every month except October, where he played just one game. All of this, of course, while starting 112 games at shortstop, the most valuable defensive position on the diamond other than catcher. When you're the consensus second best hitter in the league while playing shortstop, there's not much to argue against. It's just the fact that he played only 119 games which makes it close with the rest of the field. Had he played a full season, he'd be competing with Ohtani for the award itself.

Honorable mention: 2B Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers.
Stat line: 29 HR, .276/.348/.478, 14 SB, 124 wRC+, 6.3 fWAR in 162 games.
It's not a traditional MVP stat line, but Marcus Semien deserves to be in the conversation for runner-up alongside his double play partner. Semien gets here on the strength of his defense and durability. A Gold Glove contender at second base, he was fourth among all AL infielders in outs above average and hit much, much better than first place Andres Gimenez (97 wRC+) and third place Maikel Garcia (84) and comfortably bested second place Bobby Witt Jr. (115) as well. Alongside Seattle's Eugenio Suarez, he was one of two American League players to appear in every game this season, while also leading all AL players in plate appearances (753) and runs scored (122). Semien's fingerprints were truly on everything this year for Texas, and always positive. While his 126 wRC+ was only good for twelfth in the league, he was certainly no slouch with the bat, finishing second in the league in total bases to Ohtani (320) and fourth in extra base hits (73). Runs created above average is a cumulative stat and his 24.3 were good for eighth in the AL, putting him in that upper tier of hitters across the league in terms of overall offensive impact. He saved 13.3 runs on defense according to Fangraphs, and none of the seven players on that list saved more than Julio Rodriguez's 5.1. It's the most well-rounded profile in the AL MVP race.

Others

RHP Gerrit Cole (Yankees): 2.63 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 3.17 FIP, 222/48 K/BB in 209 IP
RHP Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): 3.16 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.97 FIP, 237/55 K/BB in 185 IP

RHP Sonny Gray (Twins): 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.83 FIP, 183/55 K/BB in 184 IP

OF Julio Rodriguez (Mariners): 32 HR, .275/.333/.485, 37 SB, 126 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR in 155 games
SS Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals): 30 HR, .276/.319/.495, 49 SB, 115 WRC+, 5.7 fWAR in 158 games

National League MVP

Winner: OF Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 41 HR, .337/.416/.596, 73 SB, 170 wRC+, 8.3 fWAR in 159 games.
It's really so close between Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mookie Betts. Acuña was the better hitter, but not by much. He was also the better baserunner, but his caught stealings eat some of the value from his 73 stolen bases. Meanwhile, Betts' average defense soundly clears Acuña's well below average defense. The counting stats are of course incredible for Acuña, who not only became the first player with 40 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a season, but also put up the first 40-60 and the first 40-70 season in baseball history. Additionally, he played in all but three games for the Braves, while Betts missed ten games for the Dodgers, and that little bit is enough to give Acuña the tiebreaker. He led the NL in virtually everything, including plate appearances (735), runs scored (149), hits (217), stolen bases, on-base percentage, OPS (1.012), total bases (383), wOBA (.428), wRC+, and fWAR. In fact, the 149 runs scored are the third highest single season total since integration, behind only 2000 Jeff Bagwell (152) and 1949 Ted Williams (150). Especially incredible given his high octane style of play is that he never slumped this season, never posting an OPS below .917 in any month and really turning on the jets as the season closed, slashing .343/.407/.714 in September to seal up the MVP race. Acuña put on a show at the plate, put on a show on the bases and was there performing every single day for Atlanta.

Runner-up: OF Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stat line: 39 HR, .307/.408/.579, 14 SB, 167 wRC+, 8.3 fWAR in 152 games.
Mookie Betts just misses behind Ronald Acuña despite being a better defender and nearly as good a hitter. It was perhaps the most all-around balanced performance in the country, as he didn't lead the NL any single individual stat, nothing, but still put up over eight wins above replacement. He started slowly, hitting just .232/.339/.424 through his first 26 games, but heated up as the season wore on. He was hitting .277/.383/.560 at the end of July, which is very solid but not quite MVP caliber, then went on a tear to hit .455/.516/.839 in the month of August, thrusting himself into the NL MVP race right alongside Acuña. Unfortunately he couldn't quite keep up with his Atlanta counterpart in the stretch run, but it's still a pretty incredible season. He hit for power, coming one big fly short of a 40 homer/40 double season, got on base at a high rate, rarely struck out, ran the bases well, and played a solid right field.

Honorable mention: 1B Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stat line: 29 HR, .331/.410/.567, 23 SB, 163 wRC+, 7.9 fWAR in 161 games.
All year it was Acuña vs Freeman in the NL MVP race, so when Betts caught fire in August and Acuña closed things out with a strong September, Freeman's merely "solid" finish to the season (.296/.382/.481 in September/October) put him just behind. Still, this is one of the more unique seasons we've seen from a first baseman recently. Playing in all but one game, he put up a 20-20-.400 (HR/SB/OBP) season that's rarely seen from a first baseman, in this case not since Paul Goldschmidt did it twice back to back in 2015 and 2016, and before that, Jeff Bagwell in 1996, 1997, and 1999. Additionally, his 59 doubles tied 2000 Todd Helton for the highest single season total since integration in 1947. Freddie was an on base and extra base hit machine in 2023, and even though he deservedly gets dinged for playing first base, he was a solid defender there and his 23 stolen bases led his position. It was a pretty cool season to watch from the veteran in his fourteenth season. He just beats out Matt Olson, whose 54 home runs were nothing to shake your finger at (while playing in all 162 games to boot), but Freeman was a better defender, a better baserunner, and got on base at a higher clip.

Others
1B Matt Olson (Braves): 54 HR, .283/.389/.604, 1 SB, 160 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 162 games
OF Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks): 25 HR, .285/.362/.506, 54 SB, 133 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 155 games
OF Juan Soto (Padres): 35 HR, .275/.410/.519, 12 SB, 155 wRC+, 5.5 fWAR in 162 games
SS Francisco Lindor (Mets): 31 HR, .254/.336/.470, 31 SB, 121 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 160 games

American League Cy Young

Winner: RHP Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Stat line: 15-4, 2.63 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 3.17 FIP, 222/48 K/BB in 209 innings.
It took until the end of the season for a pitcher to step forward and take control of the AL Cy Young race, but Gerrit Cole made it happen with a torrid stretch that saw him go 5-0 with a 1.29 ERA and a 52/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.2 innings in his final seven starts of the season. In the end, that helped him lead all AL pitchers in innings pitched, ERA, and WHIP, three of the most important traditional stats, while finishing third in strikeouts and fourth in FIP. Additionally, he did so while pitching in a hitter-friendly home park (where his ERA was half a run higher than on the road) and in an extremely competitive AL East. That all points to a pretty clear-cut Cy Young case, though I will note that he had strong defense behind him that recorded six outs above average and helped him outperform his xwOBA by .033, with a .256 real mark against a .289 expected mark. There's a debate nowadays with the advent of expected statistics whether we should consider what a player "could have" done with different defensive outcomes, and while there's merit to that, I still lean towards rewarding what actually happened. It can be a tiebreaker, which you'll see with the next two names, but I won't let it take an award away from Gerrit Cole when he very much earned it.

Runner-up: RHP Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
Stat line: 12-9, 3.16 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.97 FIP, 237/55 K/BB in 185 innings.

It was really, really close between Kevin Gausman and Sonny Gray for second place on this list. I went back and forth multiple times. Gray gets Gausman in ERA, WHIP, and FIP. Gausman struck out 54 more batters while throwing one more inning. Looking behind them, Gray pitched in front of a terrible Twins defense while Gausman was helped by a good Blue Jays defense. Though Gausman didn't really need that defense, because he had all those strikeouts and also gave up many of his runs via the home run, unlike Gray. However, looking at the difference between wOBA and xwOBA (i.e., how "unlucky" each pitcher was), Gray was actually more "lucky" than Gausman despite having a worse defense. So where does that leave us? Pretty much in a tie if you ask me. And I'll give the tie to Gausman because he pitched in a tougher division in the AL East, while Gray pitched for the best team in an extraordinarily weak AL Central. Should he get dinged for that, probably not, but I'm really looking for something to separate the two and I'm going to use it. Now looking to Gausman alone, he really had a tremendous season. His 237 strikeouts led the American League, as did his 5.3 fWAR, while his 2.97 FIP was second only to Gray. He allowed four or fewer runs in 27 of his 31 starts, almost always putting the Blue Jays in a position to win.

Honorable mention: RHP Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins.
Stat line: 8-8, 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.83 FIP, 183/55 K/BB in 184 innings.
I may have Sonny Gray a sliver of a hair behind Gausman, but he had a tremendous season. He led the AL in FIP and put up the second best ERA in the league despite pitching in front of a bad defense, making for the best year of his career. He allowed three or fewer runs in 29 of his 32 starts, outdoing Gausman in that regard with his consistency, though he did average fewer than six innings per start. Otherwise, there's not much to say here that I didn't say in Gausman's column.

Others
RHP Pablo Lopez (Twins): 3.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.33 FIP, 234/48 K/BB in 194 innings
RHP Zach Eflin (Rays): 3.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.01 FIP, 186/24 K/BB in 177.2 innings
RHP George Kirby (Mariners): 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 3.35 FIP, 172/19 K/BB in 190.2 innings
RHP Luis Castillo (Mariners): 3.34 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.81 FIP, 219/56 K/BB in 197 innings
RHP Kyle Bradish (Orioles): 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 3.27 FIP, 168/44 K/BB in 168.2 innings

National League Cy Young

Winner: LHP Blake Snell, San Diego Padres.
Stat line: 14-9, 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.44 FIP, 234/99 K/BB in 180 innings.
Look, I can point to lots of advanced statistics that show that Blake Snell wasn't the best pitcher in the National League in 2023, and many of them are very real. He pitched in front of an elite Padres defense, outperformed his xwOBA by 34 points (.300 expected vs .266 real), and was incredibly lucky to strand 86.7% of his baserunners, by far the highest number in all of baseball (Gerrit Cole was second at 80.4%). That last number, let's face it, carries luck as a major factor. For all those reasons, you can galaxy brain yourself into picking someone else in the Cy Young. However, this is an award about what really happened, and at the end of the day, Snell got the job done. Yeah, he was lucky to leave all those guys on base, but there is something to being able to bear down and not let things compound. That led to a 2.25 ERA that led the NL by 0.73, a tremendous margin. Sure, his defense helped him a lot, but nobody came close to keeping runs off the board like Snell did. His 234 strikeouts were also good for second in the league, and the guy ahead of him had an ERA more than a run and a half higher. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in 30 of his 32 starts and didn't allow four or more in a start after May 19th. In fact, in those final 23 starts, he went 13-3 with a 1.20 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, the best pitcher in baseball for four and a half months.

Runner-up: RHP Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves.
Stat line: 20-5, 3.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.85 FIP, 281/58 K/BB in 186.2 innings.
After Snell (and really including Snell), the rest of the NL Cy Young race is extremely wide open. There are about five names I could put here and feel good about. I'll go with Strider, in no small part because striking out 281 batters in under 190 innings is just incredible. Not just the highest total in the majors, it's the most strikeouts in a season since Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander struck out 326 and 300, respectively, in 2019. And interestingly enough, it's the highest single season total ever for a pitcher who threw fewer than 212 innings – and Strider did it in just 186.2. If you're looking for the next highest total for a pitcher in under 200 innings, that belongs to 2016 Jose Fernandez at 253 in tragically his final season. But the strikeouts aren't just a nice number to look at. It helped him register the lowest FIP in the league, more than a full run lower than his ERA, and while pitching wins don't really matter, winning twenty games is extremely uncommon nowadays. He pitched in front of a mediocre Braves defense that hurt him a bit on balls in play, leading to more baserunners than he could have had, and his 70.3% strand rate (remember that Snell was at 86.7%) means that he was at least partially unlucky that he couldn't spread out his baserunners.

Honorable Mention: RHP Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies.
Stat line: 13-6, 3.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.15 FIP, 212/39 K/BB in 192 innings.
Zack Wheeler's profile is very similar to Spencer Strider, if a touch less extreme. While he didn't strike out as many batters, his 212/39 strikeout to walk ratio was actually a touch better than Strider's 281/58, while he also slightly cleared him in ERA and WHIP and fell a touch behind in FIP. He did all this while pitching in front of a terrible Phillies defense that seriously inflated his ERA and WHIP, and he similarly struggled to keep runners from scoring on the rare occasions they reached base. In all, he actually led all MLB Pitchers in fWAR at 5.9, which isn't a huge total but was enough to push to the forefront in a season where no pitcher separated himself in either league. While the 3.61 ERA wasn't great (hurt by poor defense behind him and hits tending to clump together), he was extremely consistent and always gave the Phillies a chance to win, allowing four or fewer earned runs in 30/32 starts.

Others
RHP Logan Webb (Giants): 3.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 3.16 FIP, 194/31 K/BB in 216 innings.

LHP Justin Steele (Cubs): 3.06 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 3.02 FIP, 176/36 K/BB in 173.1 innings.
RHP Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks): 3.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3.27 FIP, 220/47 K/BB in 210 innings.

RHP Kodai Senga (Mets): 2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.64 FIP, 202/77 K/BB in 166.1 innings.
LHP Jesus Luzardo (Marlins): 3.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.55 FIP, 208/55 K/BB in 178.2 innings.

American League Rookie of the Year

Winner: 3B Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Stat line: 28 HR, .255/.325/.489, 10 SB, 123 wRC+, 4.6 fWAR in 150 games.
Gunnar Henderson got off to a bit of a slow start, hitting just .170/.341/.310 into mid-May, but he turned on the jets and hit .274/.321/.528 with 25 home runs and a 131 wRC+ over 117 games from that point on, with his 4.2 fWAR in that span putting him seventh in the AL. Once he shook off that slump, he hit for power, he got on base at a decent clip, and he played solid defense at third base. That's about as well-rounded a profile as you're going to get from a kid who didn't turn 22 until halfway through the season. There were a lot of very good rookies in the AL this year, but none could quite match Henderson's standing as an All Star-caliber regular.

Runner-up: RHP Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
Stat line: 10-4, 2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.52 FIP, 141/45 K/BB in 142 innings.
Gunnar Henderson may have the Rookie of the Year award wrapped up, but Tanner Bibee was truly exceptional in his rookie season in Cleveland making it closer than you'd think. In a year where we have Cy Young contenders posting ERA's in the mid three's, Tanner Bibee got his under three while finishing second among all AL rookies in innings pitched behind Hunter Brown. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in 23 of his 25 starts, meaning only twice all year did he leave a start where he didn't put the Guardians in a very good position to win the game. He was helped by a pretty good defense behind him, but overall we saw borderline ace-caliber stuff from the 24 year old this season.

Honorable mention: C Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros
Stat line: 23 HR, .282/.308/.538, 0 SB, 127 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR in 104 games.

It's hard to find catchers who can hit. The Astros have been rolling with Martin Maldonado, his elite glove, and his mediocre bat and continue to do so, but in 2023, they got a great complement in Yainer Diaz. He only played 104 games, but he blasted 23 home runs and put up a 127 wRC+ that was sixth among all MLB catchers with at least 300 plate appearances, rookie or not. He started slow, hitting .217/.242/.317 over his first 21 games, but turned it around to slash .295/.322/.583 the rest of the way as one of the best hitting catchers in the game once he got his feet wet. Beyond the bat, Diaz is one of the better catch and throw backstops in the game, controlling the running game and saving his pitchers from passed balls, though his overall defensive stats did get dinged for poor framing. Still, the framing and perhaps an aggressive approach were the only holes in his profile this year.

Others

RHP Yennier Cano (Orioles): 2.11 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2.84 FIP, 65/13 K/BB in 72.2 innings.

2B Edouard Julien (Twins): 16 HR, .263/.381/.459, 3 SB, 136 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 109 games.
3B Josh Jung (Rangers): 23 HR, .266/.315/.467, 1 SB, 110 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR in 122 games.

RHP Grayson Rodriguez (Orioles): 4.35 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 3.93 FIP, 129/49 K/BB in 122 innings.

RHP Bryce Miller (Mariners): 4.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.98 FIP, 119/26 K/BB in 131.1 innings.

National League Rookie of the Year

Winner: OF Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stat line: 25 HR, .285/.362/.506, 54 SB, 133 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 155 games.
Corbin Carroll put together one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory. Playing in nearly every game for the Diamondbacks, he finished second in all of baseball with 54 stolen bases while adding 25 home runs, 30 doubles, and ten triples, making for arguably the best power/speed combination in the game behind Ronald Acuña Jr. Not only that, but by getting on base at a .362 clip, he was more or less the complete hitter and put himself into down ballot MVP consideration. One of the fastest runners in the game, his big time speed helped him overcome some otherwise rough edges in his defensive game and play a solid center field as well. All together, his 6.0 fWAR were the most of any rookie not just in 2023, but since Aaron Judge put up 8.8 in 2017. There are other NL rookies that put up standout seasons, but Carroll's stands out above the rest. 

Runner-up: RHP Kodai Senga, New York Mets
Stat line: 2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.63 FIP, 202/77 K/BB in 166.1 innings.
You could argue Kodai Senga was the best rookie pitcher in baseball this year, holding an ERA under 3.00 while qualifying for the ERA title, a rarity nowadays, and striking out over 200 even if he was a bit wild. Even more impressive is that ERA's were up among the best pitchers in the game this year, so Senga's 2.98 mark was fifth in all of baseball among qualified pitchers. He got better and better as the season moved along and didn't allow more than three runs in a start after June 23rd. These days, there are fewer and fewer reliable, durable starting pitchers who can keep runs off the board and stay on the mound, and Senga provided one in his first go around.

Honorable mention: CF James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stat line: 23 HR, .248/.353/.437, 16 SB, 118 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR in 151 games.
It's hard to be quiet on a national brand like the Dodgers, but James Outman quietly put up one of the best seasons of any rookie in either league. Playing in 151 games, he blasted 23 home runs, walked at a high rate to push his OBP up over .350, swiped a few bags, and played standout defense in center field. In all, that's an elite defensive center fielder that was an 18% better hitter than league average and played almost every game, not too shabby for a rookie. Of course, this stat probably means nothing due to the small sample size, but he was one of the more "clutch" hitters in the game this year slashing .378/.472/.822 with five home runs in 53 plate appearances in the ninth inning or later.

Others
LF Nolan Jones (Rockies): 20 HR, .297/.389/.542, 20 SB, 135 WRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 106 games.
RHP Bobby Miller (Dodgers): 3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.51 FIP, 119/32 K/BB in 124.1 innings.
1B Spencer Steer (Reds): 23 HR, .271/.356/.464, 15 SB, 118 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR in 156 games.
C Francisco Alvarez (Mets): 25 HR, .209/.284/.437, 2 SB, 97 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR in 123 games.
SS Matt McLain (Reds): 16 HR, .290/.357/.507, 14 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 89 games.

2022 Dugout Edge Minor League Players of the Year

Another minor league season is in the books, the second since the league was contracted to 120 full season affiliates. Below we'll go through the hitters and pitchers that had the best statistical seasons this year. Minor league environments also vary fairly heavily, from hitters' havens like Reading and El Paso to pitchers' paradises in Palm Beach and Brooklyn, so that is of course taken into account. I did not take into account age relative to level or prospect status. A note on wRC+: Fangraphs wRC+ in the minor leagues is not park adjusted, so I used Baseball America's 2021 park adjustment factors to do so. The Guardians lead the way with four players (all pitchers) placed in this article, while the Yankees were the only other team with multiple names, again both pitchers.

2022 Minor League Position Player of the Year

Winner: OF Esteury Ruiz, Padres/Brewers (AA San Antonio, AAA El Paso, AAA Nashville)
Stat line: 16 HR, .332/.447/.526, 85 SB, 156 wRC+, 94/66 K/BB in 114 games.
Your 2022 Minor League Player of the Year is Esteury Ruiz, whose 2022 numbers just boggle the mind after leading all qualified full season minor leaguers in stolen bases and on-base percentage while still finding the time to knock 51 extra base hits. Coming into 2022, he already had 158 career stolen bases in 407 minor league games, including 36 in 2021, but he had never hit more than a dozen home runs in a season and had posted three straight seasons with an OPS below .740. All that changed this year, when he ran wild for 85 stolen bases in 114 games, a full fourteen ahead of second place Luis Valdez at 71 (who by the way slashed just .265/.339/.339 in 115 games). This year, eighteen different players stole at least fifty bases, and not only was Ruiz way out in front in that tally, but the next best OPS in that group was from Jonatan Clase at .837, .137 points behind Ruiz's .974. Most of his damage came at AA San Antonio, where he slashed .344/.474/.611 with nine home runs and 37 stolen bases in 49 games, but he was still an extremely tough out after a promotion to AAA, where he slashed .323/.428/.467 with 48 stolen bases in 65 games sandwiched around a trade from San Diego to Milwaukee in the Josh Hader deal. The 23 year old filled up the box score to a degree unmatched by anybody else in the minors this year, and for that reason he is the Minor League Player of the Year.

Runner-up: OF Vaun Brown, Giants (Low A San Jose, High A Eugene, AA Richmond)
Stat line: 23 HR, .346/.437/.623, 44 SB, 178 wRC+, 119/47 K/BB in 103 games.
Vaun Brown is a very close runner up to Esteury Ruiz, and a year ago almost he certainly did not expect to be in this position. A tenth round pick as a 23 year old fifth year senior out of Division II Florida Southern, Brown signed for just $7,500 with the primary purpose of being a money saver for fourth rounder Eric Silva. Both Brown and the $1.5 million man started off at Low A San Jose this year, but it was Brown who stole the show by slashing .346/.427/.636 with 14 home runs in 59 games to earn a promotion to High A Eugene. He picked up right where he left off, slashing .350/.454/.611 with nine home runs in 43 games, and got to play one game at AA Richmond to close out the season. The end result was a staggering season in which he led all qualified full season minor leaguers with a 1.059 OPS despite San Jose and Eugene playing relatively neutral in terms of being hitter or pitcher friendly. In addition to that huge OPS, he was one of six minor leaguers to join the 20/40 home run/stolen base club, and Reds prospect Elly De La Cruz (28/47) was the only player to both out-homer and out-steal him. Now Brown is on the older side, having turned 24 in June by nature of having been a fifth year senior sign, but he could not possibly have had a better debut and looks on track to become a contributor in San Francisco as soon as late next year. Matt Carpenter signed as a fifth year senior, too.

Honorable mention: C Endy Rodriguez, Pirates (High A Greensboro, AA Altoona, AAA Indianapolis)
Stat line: 25 HR, .323/.407/.590, 4 SB, 157 wRC+, 101/60 K/BB in 125 games.
Henry Davis is the catcher of the future in Pittsburgh, or at least he's supposed to be after going first overall in the 2021 draft out of Louisville. However, Davis battled injuries this year and it was a 21-22 year old Dominican backstop named Endy Rodriguez who at the very least will give him some competition back there, if he hasn't already started to take the lead. He signed with the Mets for just $10,000 in 2018 and came over to the Pirates as an under the radar piece in the Joe Musgrove/David Bednar deal, and quietly began to make a name for himself in his new organization with solid years in 2019 and 2021 (the 2020 minor league season was cancelled). The Pirates sent him to High A Greensboro to start the season and he began to break out, slashing .302/.392/.544 with 16 home runs over 88 games in a hitter-friendly environment, but the real breakout came after he was promoted to AA Altoona, believe it or not. In 37 games between Altoona (31 games) and AAA Indianapolis (6 games), he slashed .371/.444/.693 with nine home runs in much more neutral environments, and now suddenly Davis may not feel too comfortable as the team's best catching prospect. The switch-hitting backstop finished fourth among all qualified full season minor league hitters with his .996 OPS, which is simply incredible when you consider that J.T. Realmuto led all major league catchers at .820 and finished in 25th place on the overall leaderboard. Catchers don't hit like MVP's, but Endy Rodriguez did just that this season.

Others
SS Addison Barger (Blue Jays): 26 HR, .308/.378/.555, 9 SB, 150 wRC+ in 124 games
SS Elly De La Cruz (Reds): 28 HR, .304/.359/.586, 47 SB, 144 wRC+ in 120 games
SS Gunnar Henderson (Orioles): 19 HR, .297/.416/.531, 22 SB, 154 wRC+ in 112 games
1B Niko Kavadas (Red Sox): 26 HR, .280/.443/.547, 1 SB, 170 wRC+ in 120 games
1B Matt Mervis (Cubs): 36 HR, .309/.379/.605, 2 SB, 151 wRC+ in 137 games

2022 Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Winner: RHP Andrew Painter, Phillies (Low A Clearwater, High A Jersey Shore, AA Reading)
Stat line: 1.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2.02 FIP, 155/25 K/BB in 103.2 innings.
The top high school pitcher in the 2021 class for much of the cycle, Andrew Painter gave us all a taste with six scoreless innings in the Florida Complex League last year before breaking out with an incredible 2022. The Phillies sent him to Low A Clearwater like most advanced high schoolers, so he just went out and struck out 46.3% of his opponents in 38.2 innings and earned a quick promotion to High A Jersey Shore not long after his 19th birthday. There, all he did was drop his ERA from 1.40 at Low A to 0.98 at High A over 36.2 innings, earning a second promotion all the way to AA Reading where he was one of the youngest players in the league. The end result was the second lowest ERA, the and lowest WHIP, and by far the lowest FIP among all minor league pitchers who threw at least one hundred innings. He struck out 38.7% of those he faced all year long with just a 6.2.% walk rate, and overall it's not even close in my opinion. Andrew Painter was, with daylight, the best pitcher in the minors this year.

Runner-up: RHP Tanner Bibee, Guardians (High A Lake County, AA Akron)
Stat line: 2.17 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.80 FIP, 167/27 K/BB in 132.2 innings.
Between Tanner Bibee, Jack Leftwich, Will Dion, Gavin Williams, Davis Sharpe, and many others, it was a banner year for Guardians pitching prospects and Bibee was right there leading the pack. A fifth round pick out of Cal State Fullerton, he went straight to High A Lake County and showed well in twelve starts, earning a promotion to AA Akron midway through the season. Though his strikeout rate dropped from 37.2% to 28.4%, his overall numbers were actually better after the promotion as he dropped his ERA from 2.59 to 1.83 while his WHIP dropped from 1.07 to 0.88. Overall, he was one of just three minor league pitchers (min. 100 innings) with a FIP below 3.00, a WHIP below 1.00, and a strikeout rate above 30% – the other two are Andrew Painter and Jack Leftwich, the other two starters to earn write ups.

Honorable mention: RHP Jack Leftwich, Guardians (Low A Lynchburg, High A Lake County)
Stat line: 2.72 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 2.49 FIP, 140/24 K/B in 109.1 innings.
Jack Leftwich and Tanner Bibee were very close in their numbers, and Bibee just got the edge because he threw 23.1 more innings and was a level above Leftwich coming from the same draft class. Though he started off down at Low A Lynchburg, it's actually one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums at that level and he still managed a 2.39 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP before his mid-season promotion the day after Bibee went to Akron. Replacing Bibee in the Lake County rotation, he continued to put up strong numbers and finished along with Painter and Bibee in that 100 inning, 3.00 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 30% strikeout club. Painter led the minors in strikeout minus walk rate at 32.4%, but Leftwich finished third at 27.4% (and Bibee fourth). After an up and down career at Florida, it was a huge year for the Orlando native.

Others
RHP Luis Devers (Cubs): 1.91 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 2.90 FIP, 122/26 K/BB in 117.2 innings
LHP Will Dion (Guardians): 2.11 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 3.16 FIP, 157/34 K/BB in 128 innings
RHP Bryce Miller (Mariners): 3.16 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 3.49 FIP, 163/46 K/BB in 133.2 innings
RHP Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks): 3.83 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 4.21 FIP, 218/33 K/BB in 167 innings
RHP Gavin Stone (Dodgers): 1.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.44 FIP, 168/44 K/BB in 121.2 innings

2022 Minor League Reliever of the Year

LHP Joe LaSorsa, Rays (High A Bowling Green, AA Montgomery)
Stat line: 2.33 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 2.93 FIP, 87/10 K/BB in 73.1 innings.
Andrew Painter was the runaway winner for Minor League Pitcher of the Year, but the reliever market was much closer with no one reliever breaking away from the pack. Rays reliever Joe LaSorsa, who was an eighteenth round pick out of St. John's in 2019, came the closest in a surprise breakout season. Few pitchers in professional baseball where better about limiting baserunners, with LaSorsa's 0.82 WHIP finishing third among all minor league pitchers who threw at least fifty innings (and first among all with at least 62 innings). 25 pitchers (min. 50 innings) walked fewer than 4% of their opponents, but LaSorsa was one of just three in that group to strike out greater than 30% and the only one to also keep his ERA below 3.00. He was especially deadly against lefties, who slashed a hapless .144/.198/.267 against him while striking out 39.6% of the time.

Others
LHP Edgar Barclay (Yankees): 1.74 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 2.22 FIP, 86/20 K/BB in 67.1 innings
RHP Carson Coleman (Yankees): 2.13 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 2.48 FIP, 95/19 K/BB in 63.1 innings
RHP Davis Sharpe (Guardians): 2.02 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 3.16 FIP, 87/12 K/BB in 71.1 innings

2021 MLB Draft Review: Cleveland Indians

Full list of draftees

I've been looking forward to this one for a while now. The Indians develop pitching as well as any team in baseball, so they took 19 pitchers in 21 picks, many of whom I think they can turn into absolute studs. Though they're a team known for drafting younger players, both in terms of high school vs college as well as relative to their class, they went on the older side here, with five of their first six picks set to turn 22 before the minor league season is done (and nine in total). There are a few reclamation projects here, a few guys just waiting for a breakout, and a couple who have already broken out, but I think every one of the pitchers they drafted fits perfectly into their system. I haven't seen the Indians mentioned among the top draft classes this year, but this looks like a sleeper to me to look fantastic ten years from now. I could easily see this class bringing on the next wave of rotation talent to follow the Shane Bieber/Mike Clevinger/Aaron Civale/Zach Plesac group that has anchored the staff as of late. I can't pick a favorite because I like them all, and I want to write about all of them but I just don't have the time with 22 more draft reviews to get through.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-23: RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina. My rank: #17.
Scouts have been waiting and waiting on a Gavin Williams breakout for years, and they finally got it in 2021. He showed a massive right arm when he was a high schooler in the Fayetteville, North Carolina prep ranks, but made it to campus at East Carolina and couldn't quite find his footing through his first three years, putting up a 3.57 ERA and a 70/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings in that frame. Finally healthy and on the mound for a full season in 2021, he put it all together for a 1.88 ERA and a 130/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings, closing it off with a thirteen strikeout performance in a super regional bout with Vanderbilt. The 6'6" righty has run his fastball up to 101 in the past, but sits comfortably in the mid to upper 90's deep into starts without much effort. His curveball has always shown huge depth, but it was tighter this year and looks like a plus pitch at times. He's also shown feel for an above average changeup for years now, and in 2021 he added in a slider that has been effective in its own right. Williams filled up the strike zone in 2021, albeit good not great command, and now has the look of a big league impact starter. As it turns out, it's hard to grow into your body when you're 6'6" and throw 100 but can't get consistent innings, so all he needed was to be on the mound regularly in order to figure it all out. He's a fourth year guy so he's a bit older, but he was actually young for his class and only turned 22 a few days before this was published. Williams signed for $2.25 million, which was about $680,000 below slot value.

2-58: LHP Doug Nikhazy, Mississippi. My rank: #52.
Another pick, another under slot signing for a player I actually had ranked ahead of where he was taken – AKA, great value. Doug Nikhazy is actually the exact opposite pitcher of Gavin Williams in a lot of ways. While Williams is a big righty with power stuff he can blow by hitters with ease, Nikhazy is an undersized lefty who gets by much more on command and sheer force of will. This year, like Williams, he was one of the best pitchers in the country, putting up a 2.45 ERA and a 142/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 innings against an extremely tough schedule. The lefty, who I've seen variously listed between 5'10" and 6', only tops out around 93-94 with his fastball and often sits close to 90, though the pitch does show great riding action that helps it play up. His curveball is his bread and butter, coming in with fringy velocity but huge depth, while his distinct slider is shorter and plays well off the curve and his changeup is a usable pitch as well. Nikhazy, or "Nikhrazy" as he has been nicknamed, is known around college baseball as one of the game's fiercest competitors, channeling Max Scherzer in his utter hatred for anyone who has the audacity to stand in the box against him. All of his pitches play up because of the conviction he brings behind each one, and it doesn't hurt that he shows above average command, either. There's a lot of crossfire in his drop-and-drive delivery, adding some deception on top of that. To succeed in pro ball, the Orlando-area native will likely need to add a tick of velocity, but doing so could make him an impact arm at the big league level. Even if the stuff stays where it is, you could see his intangibles carrying him to a #4/#5 starter role. He signed for $1.20 million, which was $14,300 below slot value.

CBB-69: RHP Tommy Mace, Florida. My rank: #43.
As with Gavin Williams and Doug Nikhazy, I really like this pick, and as with Nikhazy, the Indians are getting a fierce SEC competitor here. Tommy Mace has been on draft radars for a long time dating back to his high school days (like Williams), where he was considered a top five rounds prospect as a lanky, projectable pitcher, but he decided to head to Florida instead. Over his first three seasons in Gainesville, he made incremental steps forward in a variety of areas, but he never made the jump in stuff that scouts were hoping to see and he was one of the top (in my opinion, the top) undrafted college players in the shortened 2020 draft. Mace took the constructive criticism to heart during the pandemic and worked to remake his game, coming out in 2021 with a new repertoire. He worked in a four seam fastball more often that helped him get more swings and misses up in the zone, while continuing to deploy his usual two seamer down. After relying on a cutter as his primary breaking ball last year, he added a new, tight curveball that proved more effective at missing bats, while his changeup looks to have taken a small step forward as well. The 6'6" righty has always shown above average command and that did not change in 2021. The results were a bit more up and down than he might have liked, though, as he finished with a 4.38 ERA and a 113/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings against a tough schedule. The Tampa-area native was a bit more hittable against good lineups this year, but I'm still confident in his ability to make further adjustments, especially in Cleveland's system. Set to turn 23 after the season, he's on the older side, but Mace is exactly the kind of competitor I would not bet against. He signed for $1.1 million, which was roughly $130,000 above slot value.

3-95: SS Jake Fox, Lakeland Christian HS [FL]. Unranked.
The Indians only drafted two position players this year, and Jake Fox also represents one of only two high school players drafted. Ty Evans was seen as the top prospect on Lakeland Christian's baseball team coming into the season, but Evans had a rough spring while Fox impressed. Fox is a late bloomer who has steadily gotten better and better throughout his time in high school, slowly adding strength and bat speed to up his game. He now profiles as a very solid all-around offensive contributor whose beautiful left handed uppercut is now producing more power as he's added that strength. He's always shown feel to hit and the Indians believe he's going to continue to improve in their system, hence the big overslot gamble. The Floridian played shortstop for his high school team but will move off the position in pro ball, likely to second base, where his average athleticism is a better fit. He should have enough bat to profile there and seems like the kind of player who will maximize his skill set. Committed to Florida, Fox instead signed for $850,000, which was $239,200 above slot value.

4-125: LHP Ryan Webb, Georgia. My rank: #78.
Ryan Webb signed underslot here, but I think they have a chance to get massive value out of their fourth round pick. An under the radar guy early in his college career, he jumped onto the national scene with five shutout innings (including eleven strikeouts) in relief of Emerson Hancock in front of a big group of scouts in 2020. He finished that shortened season with a 1.20 ERA and a 26/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 innings, but teams weren't willing to meet his asking price on such a small sample so they left him undrafted. This year, it was more of the same for the Atlanta-area native, who put up a 3.32 ERA and an 82/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, but went down with Tommy John surgery in May. Still, I see a lot to like despite the fact that he's already 22 and won't throw a professional pitch until he's 23. The 6'1" lefty comes in with a low 90's fastball that has touched as high as 96, playing up due to the plane he puts on the baseball. He stands out even more for his feel to spin the baseball, showing a big breaking curveball with huge depth in addition to a distinct slider that is an above average pitch in its own right. The changeup should be a strong pitch for him in pro ball as well, even if the breaking balls are what he's known for. Everything in Webb's arsenal plays up further because of his ability to spot his pitches to both sides of the plate, so there really isn't standing in his way of becoming a #3 or #4 starter besides durability. The 59.2 innings this year were a career high and they ended in TJ, so Cleveland will want to focus on building up his strength to last over a full season. Given the success they tend to have with pitchers, a byproduct of that could end up being a slight uptick in velocity both for his fastball and offspeeds, which if it all comes together could make him a legitimate #2 starter. He signed for $400,000, which was $55,600 below slot value.

5-156: RHP Tanner Bibee, Cal State Fullerton. My rank: #228.
I really, really liked all four pitchers the Indians took up until this point. It's not that I dislike Tanner Bibee, just more that I'm not actively a fan. He's your classic Cal State Fullerton pitchability guy and like Williams, Mace, and Webb, he was eligible for the draft last year. 2021 was more good than great, as he plugged away to a 3.61 ERA and a 67/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings, showing more or less exactly the pitcher he is. The Southern California native sits in the low 90's and gets up to a respectable 94-95 at best, putting some tough angle on the baseball because he throws from the far third base side of the rubber and comes across his body in a crossfire delivery. His slider is an above average pitch that also plays up from that angle, perhaps being his separator from other mid-round pitchability arms. For now, the changeup is an average pitch at best. The 6'2" righty stands out most for his command of the baseball, locating his stuff with relative precision to both sides of the plate and attacking the zone with confidence. As it stands now, he probably fits best as a two pitch reliever in pro ball, but any uptick in his stuff could give him a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter. Bibee signed for $259,400, which was $77,200 below slot value.

7-216: RHP Jack Leftwich, Florida. My rank: #229.
Another round, another guy who is back after being eligible last year. Jack Leftwich is the second oldest player in this Indians draft class and the oldest that I will be writing about, having turned down a chance to be drafted towards the back of last year's draft so he could return to school with competitive balance pick Tommy Mace. Set to turn 23 in September, he's coming off the best year of his career, with a 3.36 ERA and a 78/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.2 innings, though most of them came as a long reliever rather than a starter in Florida's deep pitching staff. The Orlando native has a low 90's fastball that tops out around 95-96, also coming in with a full array of secondary pitches led by an above average slider. He's filled up the strike zone consistently all four years in Gainesville, though his control remains ahead of his command and he can be prone to leaving pitches over the plate. The 6'4" righty also throws with some effort, which combined with the average command and stuff probably points to a career in the bullpen. In this Indians pitching development system, you never know though. He signed for $167,000, which was $36,400 below slot value.

8-246: LHP Rodney Boone, UC Santa Barbara. My rank: #149.
This has a chance to be the real sleeper of the draft class for Cleveland. Rodney Boone has been nothing short of dominant at UC Santa Barbara, actually out-pitching his teammate and first round pick Michael McGreevy with a 2.52 ERA and a 239/79 strikeout to walk ratio over 199.2 career innings there (including a 2.31 ERA and a 128/39 K/BB this year). The only reason he lasted this long in the draft is velocity, as the Southern California native only sits in the mid to upper 80's with his fastball, scraping 90 when he reaches back in bullpens. The pitch plays up though because it has high spin rates and he gets a low release on the ball, giving it tremendous riding action for its velocity. His curveball, like his fastball, needs to add power, but it comes in with great shape and he has learned to throw it with more conviction. Boone also throws an above average changeup, giving him an offspeed weapon for both lefties and righties. To top it off, he shows above average command as well. Together, it's a pretty complete profile for the 6'1" lefty, who now needs to focus on eating as much as possible and tacking on weight to add power to his stuff. He doesn't need to throw 95 to succeed in the majors, but he does need to throw at least 91-92. He signed right at slot value for $167,000.

10-306: RHP Franco Aleman, Florida. Unranked.
Franco Aleman gives Cleveland their third Gator arm, joining Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich. He's an imposing presence on the mound with a strong 6'6" frame, pumping low to mid 90's fastballs in relief and climbing to 97-98 when he reaches back. Aleman's best secondary is an above average slider that he loves to attack hitters with, while his curveball and changeup are fringy. The Tampa native was up and down in 2021, posting a 5.74 ERA and a 65/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings as a swingman, but unlike many of the other players drafted this year he's young (just turned 21 in June) and has some time to smooth out his delivery. He's likely a reliever in pro ball unless he takes big steps forward with his secondaries or command, but he could be a great power reliever eventually pumping upper 90's fastballs in the late innings. He signed for $175,000, which was $31,500 above slot value.

14-426: RHP Trenton Denholm, UC Irvine. My rank: #215.
This is an interesting reclamation project for Cleveland. Trenton Denholm was eligible for the draft last year and was coming off a two year stretch with a 1.90 ERA over 123.1 innings, in addition to having 32.2 shutout innings over two summers in the elite Cape Cod League under his belt (albeit with one unearned run). Though he lacked big stuff, his excellent track record of performance as well as his extreme youth made him an attractive fourth-ish round option in 2020, but he priced himself out of the draft and returned to UC Irvine. Since then, his stock has taken a bit of a hit as he finished 2021 with a 4.61 ERA and a 70/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings with a pitcher-friendly home park, which aren't exactly the numbers you look for when performance is your best attribute. He's an undersized right hander at 5'11" that sits around 90 with his fastball and only tops out around 93, working in a fringy curveball and slider. His changeup is his best pitch, coming in with excellent fade. In the past, he succeeded in keeping hitters off balance well, but they adjusted to him in 2021 and exposed some of his weaknesses. Still, since he is extremely young for a fourth year college player and won't turn 22 until after the season, the Indians have time to get him back on top. The Sacramento-area native is known as an intense competitor who pounds the strike zone and commands his pitches well, and if he can take an incremental step forward with either of his breaking balls, it could be enough to keep hitters off his other pitches. You don't throw 32.2 shutout innings on the Cape without something special going on, and he should be an adjustment or two away from becoming a useful back-end starter or long reliever. He signed for $150,000, $25,000 of which counts against Cleveland's bonus pool.

17-516: RHP Tyler Thornton, Arizona State. My rank: #213.
One more reclamation project here. Tyler Thornton, like Trenton Denholm, entered the season with much more of a performance-based than a stuff-based profile. Indeed, he was the West Coast Conference Freshman of the Year after posting a 2.71 ERA and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.1 innings at Saint Mary's in 2019, then transferred to Arizona State and was strong in the shortened 2020 season (3.38 ERA, 25/7 K/BB). However, he was hit significantly harder in 2021 and finished with a 5.54 ERA and a 78/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.1 innings. The 6'3" righty is a bit of a soft tosser, sitting around 90 with his fastball and adding an above average changeup as well as a fringy curveball, though that stuff backed up a bit towards the end of the season. He still has a lot of room to get stronger and add weight to that string bean frame, something that will be important given his fastball was sitting upper 80's by the season's end. Thornton comes from a low three quarters, nearly sidearm slot that puts nice movement on his fastball and changeup, and I could see him adding a slider in Cleveland's system. The San Diego-area native also shows the ability to command his pitches to both sides of the plate, and given that he just turned 21 shortly before the draft, he has some extra time to develop. If the Indians can get him a little stronger and help that stuff take a step forward, he has all the ingredients to be an impact starting pitcher. That's great value in the seventeenth round, where he signed for just $50,000.

An Early Look at the Low and Mid-Major Conferences (West): 2021 MLB Draft

Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on January 22nd.

Last time, we talked about the loaded crop of mid-major talent east of the Mississippi River, from pitchers Sam Bachman and Mason Black to bats Ethan Wilson and Hunter Goodman. The west side of the river isn’t quite as fertile at this point, especially beyond Sam Houston State’s Colton Cowser, but it should be interesting nonetheless. The states of California and Texas dominate here, combining to produce eight out of the ten names. If the list had gone to thirteen, it would have been eleven of thirteen. This is also a pitcher-heavy group, as after Cowser, slots two through six bring five arms in a row.

1. OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3″, 195 lbs. Born 3/20/2000. Hometown: Cypress, TX
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.

Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs had quite the team a few years ago. Pitchers J.J. Goss and Matthew Thompson went 36th and 45th overall in 2019 to the Rays and White Sox, respectively, while another pitcher, Ty Madden, ended up at Texas and is a potential first round pick in 2021. Outfielder Colton Cowser was probably the fourth best player on that team and headed to Sam Houston State. However, after slashing .361/.450/.602 with seven home runs and a nice 29/26 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games as a freshman, he rocketed himself into the national conversation. An unremarkable start to 2020 (.255/.379/.364, 1 HR, 9/8 K/BB) may not have built his case further, but it didn’t do much to damper it and he’s easily the best mid-major prospect west of the Mississippi River.

First and foremost, Cowser stands out for his feel to hit. He has struck out in just 11.9% of his plate appearances at Sam Houston State, keeping low swing and miss rates and low chase rates on not only fastballs but offspeed pitches as well. It’s not just pure bat to ball skills with Cowser, as he also shows plus feel for the barrel that enables him to consistently drive the ball into the gaps and pop for some home runs too. He’s an above average runner who has stolen 14/16 bases for the Bearkats and should stick in center field, further adding to his leadoff profile.

At a wiry 6’3″, some evaluators think he can grow into above average power. He knocked 31 extra base hits (including seven home runs) as a freshman and added three doubles and a homer in 2020, all despite utilizing a flat swing that has led to a 46% ground ball rate. His proponents see that plus feel for the barrel, room to grow, and potential to add loft and can see 20-25 home runs per year. Some pessimists, however, don’t think he’ll get much bigger and will point to unremarkable exit velocities to say he projects for closer to 10-15. Regardless, it’s a first round profile for the Houstonian, one that can sit atop a big league lineup for years.

2. LHP Rodney Boone, UC Santa Barbara

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’2″, 175 lbs. Born 4/9/2000. Hometown: Orange, CA
2019-2020: 10-1, 2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 111/40 K/BB in 102.1 IP.

Some people really, really like Rodney Boone, while others aren’t as impressed. Regardless, it’s one of the more interesting profiles in this year’s draft. Boone has been as steady as they come for UC Santa Barbara, winning ten of eleven decisions and posting a 2.73 ERA across more than 100 innings, striking out 111 and walking 40 along the way. Now, the school that gave us Shane Bieber, Dillon Tate, and Ben Brecht in recent drafts has another potential Day One arm.

Boone is unique among Day One hopefuls in that he does not throw hard at all. Throughout his time in Santa Barbara, his fastball has typically sat in the mid to upper 80’s, but his stock has risen lately with reports he was hitting 90 this fall. Even with the velocity bump, he’s still fringy in that regard, but he gets good spin rates on the pitch and hitters don’t seem to pick it up. The Orange County native also adds a potentially plus changeup that generates a ton of whiffs, tunneling very well off his fastball and again proving difficult to pick up. His curveball is his third pitch for now, as he tends to bounce it. Hitters haven’t chased it much to this point, but they often swing and miss when they attempt at it, so getting more confident in the pitch could help him take another step forward.

Boone has some work to do, considering his fringy velocity gives him very few benefits of the doubt. First and foremost, he needs to maintain this slight uptick in velocity and perhaps even add another tick this spring, as 88 with good pitch data is still 88. His control also still stands out ahead of his command, which will be important when he can’t sneak as many 88 MPH fastballs by pro hitters as he can in the Big West. That’s another reason maintaining and improving upon his velocity gains will be important. The ceiling here is very interesting, however, with a very deceptive lefty who could potentially sit low 90’s with two above average secondary offerings and above average command.

3. RHP Trenton Denholm, UC Irvine

Bat: R. Throw: R. 5’11”, 190 lbs. Born 11/29/1999. Hometown: El Dorado Hills, CA
2018-2020: 15-14, 2.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 166/55 K/BB in 197.2 IP.

Sticking with crafty arms in the UC system, we’ll turn next to Irvine’s Trenton Denholm. The Anteater ace was eligible in 2020, but he was extremely young for his class and returns to campus for a fourth year while fitting right in age-wise with many other first-time eligible college players. Denholm has been absolutely lights out since the end of his freshman season, putting up a 1.90 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 118/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings for UC Irvine the last two seasons while also shoving for 32.2 (!) shutout innings (one unearned run) over two summers on the Cape. Now, with a similar birthday to much of this year’s college class, he has one of the best overall track records of all.

Denholm’s stuff isn’t explosive, but he still leaves hitters shaking their heads. The fastball sits around 90, usually a tick above up to about 92-93. He throws a distinct curveball and slider, both of which are solid average pitches. His plus changeup is his best pitch, just fading and fading away from the left handed batters into some dark abyss. The Sacramento-area native shows above average command, but even that plays up because he’s absolutely fearless on the mound and will pound the zone with everything he has.

Denholm is far from the most physical arm in California, listed at a skinny 5’11”, but that hasn’t stopped him. Though he doesn’t project to add much velocity, it’s really easy to fall in love with his feel for pitching and bulldog mentality, and the results back it up. Denholm projects as a back-end starter or a long reliever due to his lack of velocity and swing and miss breaking stuff, but I wouldn’t bet against him.

4. RHP Dominic Hamel, Dallas Baptist

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 205 lbs. Born 3/2/1999. Hometown: Chandler, AZ
2020: 2-0, 4.58 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 27/7 K/BB in 19.2 IP.

Interestingly, Dominic Hamel is actually draft-eligible for the fifth year in a row in 2021. After graduating from Hamilton High School in the Phoenix suburbs in 2017, he spent two years at Yavapai JC, then transferred to Dallas Baptist for the 2020 season. Hamel started off strong, allowing one earned run while striking out 19 over twelve innings against South Dakota State and UNC, but faltered against Arkansas State and Oral Roberts by allowing nine earned runs in 7.2 innings. Ultimately, it wasn’t enough to get drafted in the shortened event.

Hamel really interests progressive clubs that are confident in their pitching development (hint hint, @Rays). To this point, he hasn’t quite put everything together, but he does have a lot going for him. The Phoenix-area native sits comfortably in the low 90’s, topping out around 96, but makes the pitch play up significantly with great extension. He adds a pair of high spin breaking balls in a curve and slider, both of which can flash above average, though they’re inconsistent to this point. Hamel’s changeup isn’t much of a factor yet.

The 6’2″ righty has a sturdy, athletic frame, and his strike throwing ability has improved to near average. A data-savvy team will be eager to get their hands on his high spin stuff, and they could have a lot of fun tinkering with ways to play one pitch off another. Improving his consistency and adding a changeup will be key to raising Hamel’s floor, especially given that he’ll be 22 in March. The ceiling, though, is that of a mid-rotation starter, with a fallback option as a two or three pitch reliever that could sit more consistently in the mid 90’s with a true plus fastball.

5. RHP Tanner Bibee, Cal State Fullerton

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 190 lbs. Born 3/5/1999. Hometown: Mission Viejo, CA
2018-2020: 9-15, 3.92 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 169/52 K/BB in 181.1 IP.

Cal State Fullerton is a talent pipeline that has recently churned out tons of pitchability-types including Tom Eshelman, Connor Seabold, John Gavin, and Colton Eastman, and now Tanner Bibee looks to be next. He was steady over his first two years (4.15 ERA, 136/47 K/BB in 151.2 IP) and took a nice step forward in 2020 (2.73 ERA, 33/5 K/BB in 29.2 IP) against a pretty strong non-conference slate that included Stanford and Texas. He also showed well in the Cape Cod League in 2019 (3.38 ERA, 19/4 K/BB in 18.2 IP), giving himself a pretty strong track record to compete with arms who might have louder stuff.

Bibee hangs out in the low 90’s with his fastball, topping out around 93. The pitch plays up because he puts tough angle on the ball, pitching from the far third base side of the rubber and hiding the ball well from a closed off delivery. His slider is probably his best pitch, coming in around 80 with late tilt and flashing above average. At this point, the changeup grades out as below average, looking pretty flat most of the time. With above average command and pitchability, everything works together well.

It’s a pretty safe back-end starter profile for the Orange County native. While Bibee doesn’t possess even an average changeup unlike many of his peers in that demographic, he stands out a bit for his above average breaking ball. Teams looking to get a quick-to-the-big-leagues arm and perhaps save a little money in the process will be very interested in the 6’2″ righty, who was off to a hot start in 2020.

6. RHP Braden Olthoff, Tulane

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 220 lbs. Born 3/12/1999. Hometown: Vista, CA
2020: 4-0, 0.32 ERA, 0.54 WHIP, 47/3 K/BB in 28 IP.

Few pitchers can match Braden Olthoff’s meteoric rise in recent years. A lightly recruited high school hitter, he picked up pitching as a senior and landed at Palomar College with a mid 80’s fastball. Two years later, he transferred to Tulane with increased velocity and shoved; over four starts, he allowed one earned run and just fifteen baserunners while striking out 47 of the 101 batters he faced, good for the third best ERA, third most strikeouts, and fourth best WHIP in Division I (min. 20 innings). He went undrafted last year, but has a chance to continue his climb in 2021 (though I’m pretty sure he’s reached his ceiling as far as performance goes). Though he didn’t face the strongest competition, he did out-duel Tanner Bibee with a complete game, sixteen strikeout shutout against Cal State Fullerton.

Since high school, the 6’4″ Olthoff has added about six or seven miles per hour to his fastball and now sits in the low 90’s, topping out around 94. He mixes in an average curveball with nice depth that he can also morph into a slider, working well between the two. Olthoff’s best pitch is probably his changeup, which gets above average grades and plays well off his other three pitches. Of course, everything plays up due to plus command and pitchability, as well as the ability to hide the ball behind his 6’4″ frame. Also going in the San Diego-area native’s favor is durability, as he throws almost effortlessly and is built like a prototypical starting pitcher.

Once you get to Day Two in the draft, it can get difficult to differentiate between a glut of pitchability arms. Olthoff stands out due to his 2020 performance, first and foremost, but also due to his trajectory. He has not only improved, but leapt forward every year since high school. It might be hard to project yet another big leap in 2021, but slight improvements to his breaking balls or perhaps another tick on his fastball could push him into top 100 consideration, especially if he goes out and shoves like he did in 2020.

7. C Shane McGuire, San Diego

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6′, 195 lbs. Born 4/12/1999. Hometown: Kent, WA
2018-2020: 3 HR, .320/.442/.407, 7 SB, 65/75 K/BB in 117 games.

Shane McGuire gives us a sixth straight player who was eligible in 2020 but returned to school. The younger brother of Blue Jays catcher Reese McGuire, Shane won’t match his brother’s first round pedigree but has a chance to be a similar player. He has improved every year at San Diego and was off to a blazing start in 2020, slashing .469/.561/.688 with one home run and just two strikeouts in twelve games. That came on the heels of a .325/.444/.401 sophomore season and he has a great track record with wood bats, which is made even better by the fact that he will likely stick behind the plate.

McGuire stands out most for his plate discipline. After striking out in 16.7% of his plate appearances as a freshman in 2018, he cut that to 10.6% in 2019 and then just 4.9% in the shortened 2020 season, all while walking a combined 14.8% of the time over three years (vs. a 12.8% overall K rate). McGuire works counts, selects hittable pitches while letting the bad ones go, and makes contact with the ones he does select. He has some loft and whip in his left handed swing, though to this point his power plays well below average despite his feel for the barrel. Learning to get a little more extension could perhaps get him closer to 45-50 grade pop.

The Seattle-area native shows a strong, accurate arm behind the plate that helps him control the running game. His glovework is a bit choppier, but he’s gotten better in that regard and being the brother of a big league catcher will continue to work in his favor. Unless he really improves his power output, it’s hard to project McGuire as a future starter, but his elite plate discipline and long track record of getting on base give him a high floor. He’s one of the safer-bet backup catchers in this year’s draft once you get into Day Two of the draft.

8. SS Wyatt Young, Pepperdine

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’7″, 160 lbs. Born 12/5/1999. Hometown: Honolulu, HI
2019-2020: 2 HR, .311/.357/.350, 5 SB, 44/17 K/BB in 64 games.

Listed at 5’7″, 160 pounds, Wyatt Young is one of the smallest players in this year’s draft and will earn plenty of comparisons to former Oregon State shortstop Nick Madrigal. He’s put up a nice track record over two years in Malibu, slashing .311/.357/.350 over 64 games, and he also put up an impressive .340/.413/.440 line over 42 games in the Cape Cod League in 2019. With Eric Thames signing to play in Japan and Zach Vincej floating around the upper minors, there are no former Pepperdine Waves in MLB, so Young will look to change that (if A.J. Puckett doesn’t beat him to it).

As with Colton Cowser at the top of this list, Young’s selling point is his bat. He makes extremely easy contact, having struck out in just 14.5% of his plate appearances at Pepperdine and 16.3% on the Cape. However, unlike Shane McGuire just ahead of him on this list, it’s more of a product of pure bat to ball skills than strong plate discipline. Young routinely puts the ball in play early in the count, which to this point has limited his walk rate to 5.6% for the Waves. While he’s adept at finding holes in the defense and poking the ball into gaps, especially to the opposite field, he lacks the physicality to drive the ball to the wall, leading to pretty empty batting averages overall. Defensively, he mans shortstop for Pepperdine, but more athletic and more physical defenders will likely push him to second base in pro ball.

Young’s plus bat to ball skills give him a very high floor in pro ball. He will have no problem putting the ball in play against advanced arms, and on the Cape he showed that he can still find the gaps against those kinds of arms. The Honolulu native’s lack of power likely limits his ceiling, so his path to a full time big league job will rest on getting more patient at the plate and upping that on-base percentage. Still, he likely profiles as a bench option and appeals most to old school teams.

9. RHP Owen Sharts, Nevada

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 175 lbs. Born 11/23/1999. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA
2019-2020: 3-11, 5.70 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 72/42 K/BB in 90 IP.

As of 2018, Owen Sharts was probably the best prospect of these ten players. A potential top five rounds pick, he instead enrolled at Nevada and struggled as a freshman, putting up a 5.96 ERA and a 40/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings. In 2020, he was hit around by Portland and Cal Baptist (combined 9 IP, 10 ER, 18 H), but also showed progress by dominating Oregon and Hofstra (combined 13 IP, 2 ER, 19/3 K/BB). Reno can be a tough place to pitch, and while the ERA hasn’t quite been there, he has done a good job controlling the strike zone and finished with a 32/7 K/BB in 2020. He also looked very good in the Cape Cod League in 2019, his 4.82 ERA hiding the fact that he looked dominant in all but one very rough outing.

Sharts joins the glut of back-end starter types in this group, coming in with a wide array of strengths but no true differentiators. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and he does a good job of holding that velocity, while his downer curveball and changeup project as average while flashing a few 55’s. The command isn’t pinpoint, but the Los Angeles-area native controls the strike zone well by going right after hitters with three big league pitches. He’s not built like a true horse, listed at 6’1″ and 175 pounds, but he has a clean delivery and repeats it pretty well.

To this point, I don’t think Sharts has really differentiated himself like Tanner Bibee has with his slider or Braden Olthoff has with his changeup and performance. In 2021, Sharts could use a little more consistency, as he has a tendency to get blown up when his stuff flattens out. Otherwise, with three big league pitches, good control, and no major red flags, he profiles as a safe bet back-end type for Day Two.

10. RHP Cade Winquest, UT Arlington

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 205 lbs. Born 4/30/2000. Hometown: Haslet, TX
2019-2020: 6-2, 5.28 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 61/35 K/BB in 59.2 IP.

The University of Texas at Arlington, sitting in the shadow of Globe Life Field and AT&T Stadium, has also sat in the shadow of better Sun Belt programs like Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Lafayette, and South Alabama. Their crown jewels are John Lackey (1998), Hunter Pence (2003-2004), and Michael Choice (2008-2010), but no Maverick has gone in the top eight rounds since Zach Thompson in 2014. Cade Winquest may not match Thompson’s fifth round selection, but he’s trending in the right direction and could break out in 2021. He held his own as a freshman starter in 2019 (5.01 ERA, 49/24 K/BB) but never quite got going in 2020 (6.75 ERA, 12/11 K/BB). Only set to turn 21 at the end of April, he’s relatively young for a college junior.

To this point, Winquest has been a starter for the Mavs, and even in that role he’s shown flashes of big potential to go with inconsistency. In short stints, the Fort Worth-area native’s fastball sits in the mid 90’s and can touch the upper 90’s, playing up due to extension well beyond what you’d typically see from someone 6’2″. His high-spin curveball needs more consistency, but it flashes plus regularly and could eventually earn a true 60 grade. He recently added a slider and a splitter, which haven’t been seen much in game action. The command comes and goes, anywhere from fringe average to well below given the day. He walked a reasonable 10.9% as a freshman, but that jumped to 23.4% as a sophomore and 23.2% over the summer.

It’s unclear where Winquest’s future lies. On one hand, he looks like a reliever with two big pitches and very inconsistent command, and that likely tickets him to the bullpen. However, if he can clean up that command a little bit as a junior and show that even one of his two new pitches are for real, we could have a legitimate starting prospect on our hands. It’s still more exciting to picture the Texan in a big league bullpen at this point, where he could throw two legitimate 60-grade pitches (the fastball perhaps reaching 70) and worry less about pacing and command. There will be a lot of eyes in Arlington in 2021.

Other Interesting Low/Mid Major Options in the West

California

Three Californians just missed the list. Perhaps the closest was catcher Wyatt Hendrie, who transferred to San Diego State after a strong career at Antelope Valley CC. The Palmdale native is athletic for a catcher and runs well in addition to showing a strong arm, giving him a chance to continually improve behind the plate. His compact swing produces a lot of line drives and balls in the gaps, though to this point we haven’t seen much in the way of over the fence power. Hendrie controls the strike zone well and since he’ll be 22 in February, he could be a cheaper sign

At UC Riverside, Troy Percival‘s son Cole Percival has one of the better right arms on the West Coast. He sits in the low 90’s and touches 94-95 as a starter, getting nice sinking action on the fastball that proves difficult to pick up. Percival also adds an average slider and a fringy changeup. The 6’5″ righty throws strikes but his control is ahead of his command, and his fastball/slider combination would likely play up better in the bullpen. Percival was eligible in 2020 and will turn 22 in February.

Lastly, Michael McGreevy has been lights out for two years at UC Santa Barbara (7-1, 1.64 ERA, 79/20 K/BB), and since he won’t be 21 until July, he’s much younger than Hendrie and Percival. The Southern Californian sits around 90 with his sinker and adds a 12-6 curveball with good depth as well as a decent slider and changeup. Nothing pops out, but he throws strikes with all four pitches and his easy delivery portends well to a future in the rotation, while his projectable 6’4″ frame could help him get more consistently into the low 90’s.

Texas

A couple of Lone Star catchers stand out, including Dominic Hamel’s battery-mate Ryan Wrobleski. The Minneapolis-area native transferred in from Northern Iowa Area CC and has a lot to like. He’s a sound defender behind the plate who will stick, which makes his bat more attractive. Wrobleski generates above average raw power from a forceful right handed swing that can get long at times, and with seven home runs in the Northwoods League and three in fourteen games for Dallas Baptist, he has tapped it in games. Evaluators will want to see him tap that power over a full season in 2021 and keep the swing and miss down, especially on offspeed pitches.

Rice’s Justin Collins has a similar profile, though he’s already 22 and was eligible in 2020. The Houston native popped 13 home runs and slashed .262/.380/.403 over his first two seasons with the Owls, but slumped to .190/.352/.214 in 2020 and went undrafted. Collins has a bit of a noisy setup and can be streaky, showing a patient approach but swinging and missing a lot when he gets out of whack (42.6% K rate in 2020). His glove will require more work than Wrobleski’s, but he has the ability to stick with good coaching.

Elsewhere

Texoma area scouts are well acquainted with Adam Oviedo, who was a top five round prospect coming out of high school south of Fort Worth in 2017. Oviedo first played at TCU, where he rebounded from a rough freshman season (.228/.319/.257) to show well as a sophomore (.291/.379/.429). Transferring to Oral Roberts, he went undrafted in 2020 despite a hot start (.302/.353/.556) and will return for another year. He has a broad base of skills but no carrying tool, showing a simple, quick swing and a patient approach, but well below average power for most of his career until he hit five home runs in fifteen games in 2020. He’ll likely slide to second base in pro ball, so proving his 2020 home run barrage was at least somewhat for real rather than a fluke will be his key to becoming a big league role player.

Over at Arkansas-Little Rock, we have another undrafted returnee. Aaron Funk rebounded from an awful 2019 (11.45 ERA, 16/20 K/BB) to look lights out in 2020, putting up a 2.01 ERA and a 37/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings (including a 17 strikeout complete game against North Alabama). The Lawrence, Kansas native sits around 90 with his fastball, but it plays up due to the nice extension he gets from his 6’5″ frame. He also flashes an above average curveball with great depth. Funk’s delivery can get a bit rigid, so smoothing it out might help him peak into the low 90’s more often. He probably profiles better as a reliever, where his fastball could get another boost and his inconsistent command won’t be as much of an issue.