Showing posts with label Henry Bolte. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Henry Bolte. Show all posts

Saturday, August 6, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Oakland Athletics

Full list of draftees

The A's drafted four consecutive position players to start off the draft, including three outfielders that all have a broad enough skill set to develop into true five tool players. They kind of spent the rest of the draft playing bonus catchup after going more than $650,000 above slot value to sign second rounder Henry Bolte and six figures over slot again to sign third rounder Colby Thomas, but they have to feel great about getting a whole new outfield and a potential starting catcher all early in the draft. There are no slam dunk starting pitchers in this class, with the first two arms they selected showing considerable stuff but difficulty harnessing it and perhaps their best bet, eleventh rounder Christian Oppor, turning them down so he could attend JuCo in Florida.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-19: C Daniel Susac, Arizona. My rank: #15.
Slot value: $3.53 million. Signing bonus: $3.53 million.
The A's got great value here in the back of the teens, landing a catcher that many thought was talented enough to go in the top ten picks. The younger brother of former Giants catcher Andrew Susac, Daniel is also a hometown kid that grew up in the northeastern Sacramento suburb of Roseville, meanwhile commuting to Carmichael to attend Jesuit High School. He earned a lot of draft attention there in the five round 2020 draft, but opted to head to Arizona for college and that move paid off. Susac made an immediate impact in Tucson, slashing .335/.392/.591 with twelve home runs as a freshman, then stepped it up a notch in 2022 by slashing .366/.429/.582 with twelve more home runs and a 52/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Working with a strong, long limbed, 6'4" frame, he produces high exit velocities from the right side that give him plus raw power when he lifts the ball. He's an aggressive hitter whose 7.4% walk rate was actually the lowest on my entire draft board this spring, but his above average bat to ball skills help him make a ton of hard contact regardless and strikeouts have never been an issue. In pro ball, he'll probably want to refine that approach a little bit as pitchers start to take advantage of the chases, but it's not terribly concerning given the rest of the profile. Behind the plate, he stands out as one of the better pitch framers in the class, so he'll provide immense value in that regard until MLB one day implements robo umps. His defense is otherwise average, enough to help him stick back there but he probably won't be winning many Gold Gloves. Together, it's an everyday catcher's profile that could produce 25+ home runs annually with solid on-base percentages. Two of the Athletics' past three first round picks have been catchers from the Central Valley, with Susac joining Turlock's Tyler Soderstrom, though Soderstrom is playing less and less catcher. Susac debuted in the Arizona Complex League and picked up three hits in his first two games.

2-56: OF Henry Bolte, Palo Alto HS [CA]. My rank: #41.
Slot value: $1.34 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($658,100 above slot value).
After going local to the east with the Sacramento area's Daniel Susac, the A's went local again to the west by grabbing Henry Bolte out of Palo Alto High School. Bolte didn't come cheap, costing more than $650,000 above slot value to sign away from a Texas commitment, but he has a chance to be a special hitter in Oakland. He's a great athlete with a big, physical 6'3" frame oozing with tools. His right handed swing produces a ton of torque and high exit velocities, so the next step there will be helping him loft the ball more effectively and turn that plus raw power into more home runs in games. He also has a ways to go with his approach at the plate, but he does show the ability to impact the ball to all fields and should take well to pro pitching with a little refinement. Bolte has plus speed that could keep him in center field, where his plus arm could make him a Gold Glover if it all comes together. There is huge upside here as a potential five tool player, and he's not terribly far off from that ceiling for a high schooler. Oakland may opt to take it slow with their potential future star, but this will be a fun one to track and he has two hits in his first six at bats in the ACL.

CBB-69: OF Clark Elliott, Michigan. My rank: #81.
Slot value: $977,500. Signing bonus: $900,000 ($77,500 below slot value).
Clark Elliott has a lot of fans out in the Midwest, and it looks like the A's were among them. He didn't put up big numbers in his first two years at Michigan, but turned a lot of heads when he hit .344/.464/.478 with a strong 20/17 strikeout to walk ratio in the elite Cape Cod League last summer. He continued that success in Ann Arbor this spring, where he hit .337/.460/.630 with 16 home runs and a 56/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. Elliott has plenty of wiry strength in his lean 6' frame and has always shown strong feel for the barrel, previously employing a line drive, all-fields approach. In 2022, he began turning on and elevating the ball more effectively, tapping some pull side power that should play in pro ball. There are some concerns over his ability to handle quality breaking stuff, but overall it's a very well-rounded offensive profile augmented by plus speed that will help him stay in center field. There's no one plus tool here aside from that speed, but the Chicago-area native projects to be a well-rounded profile that can impact the game in a number of ways. He walked and scored in his first game in the ACL.

3-95: OF Colby Thomas, Mercer. My rank: #71.
Slot value: $642,100. Signing bonus: $750,000 ($107,900 above slot value).
The A's rounded out their outfield by selecting Colby Thomas out of Mercer, and he has a chance to be the best player in the group. He was up and down as an underclassman then showed well in the Cape Cod League last summer before breaking out in 2022 with a .325/.451/.734 slash line, 17 home runs, and a 32/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games. Thomas is not huge at a listed 6', 190 pounds, but he can really put a charge into a baseball with a very leveraged right handed swing, great bat speed, and strong feel for the barrel. Those 17 home runs in 42 games this year were no fluke, and he should continue to hit for power in pro ball. Previously an aggressive hitter with some swing and miss in his game, the South Georgia native smoothed that out considerably this year and walked more than he struck out. It remains to be seen how Thomas handles the jump to professional pitching from the Southern Conference, but if it goes smoothly, this could end up being a steal of a pick. Meanwhile, he's not quite as fast as Henry Bolte or Clark Elliott, but he is a good runner that has a shot at center field if he hits and those guys don't or if Bolte slows down as he fills out. He has a good arm to top it off, giving him a chance to be a five tool player just like the other two outfielders here.

4-124: RHP Jacob Watters, West Virginia. My rank: #146.
Slot value: $483,500. Signing bonus: $491,750 ($8,250 above slot value).
The first pitcher of the draft for Oakland is an interesting one. Jacob Watters didn't get much exposure growing up in one of the most remote corners of Virginia, so he ended up on campus at West Virginia and has shown off some of the more impressive arm strength in the class. The numbers weren't pretty this year, with a 6.22 ERA and a 75/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings as a swingman, but he did strike out fifteen Longhorns during a start against Texas in May and there is a lot to work with. Watters sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can touch triple digits in relief, just overpowering hitters when they're not explicitly sitting on the pitch. His curveball is his best pitch, coming in with huge spin and tight break, and together it's one of the better fastball/curveball combinations out there. He also throws a changeup, but it's well behind the fastball and curveball. Watters has shown well in relief but has really struggled as a starter, where his below average command really hurts him and he struggles to maintain his stuff. The 6'4", 230 pound righty is country strong and does have a chance to start if he can get that command ironed out and work on his changeup, but his most likely destination is the bullpen where he'll rely on the fastball and curveball. It's a fun profile with some upside here in the fourth round.

5-154: RHP Jack Perkins, Indiana. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $361,000. Signing bonus: $270,750 ($90,250 below slot value).
The A's spent big on their first five picks and now in the fifth round find themselves nearly $700,000 over their bonus pool pick for pick, so the money savings start in earnest here. Jack Perkins had serious draft interest out of Louisville last year, but walked 22 batters 16 innings and decided to stay in school. He transferred from Louisville to Indiana, which was closer to home, and got the opportunity to start that he wouldn't have gotten at Louisville. This year, he put up a 5.10 ERA and a 91/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings for the Hoosiers, unremarkable numbers on the surface but a big step forward from where he was. Perkins can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, getting up to 97 in relief and coming in with big spin rates, but there were times in 2022 where he hung closer to 90. He works in vicious, plus slider that looks like one of the better breaking balls in the draft at its best, while also showing a cutter and a changeup. The Kokomo native's command improved from non-playable in 2021 to below average in 2022 as he smoothed out his delivery considerably, and if he moves back to the bullpen in pro ball, it should be good enough. Given how he couldn't quite maintain his stuff in a starting role, in addition to the command questions, I think the bullpen is where he belongs, and he could be a nasty reliever if the transition goes how it should. Aside from being a year older and a few inches shorter, there are some similarities here to Jacob Watters.

6-184: 3B Brennan Milone, Oregon. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $277,300. Signing bonus: $200,00 ($77,300 below slot value).
Brennan Milone was a big name for the 2019 draft out of high school in the Atlanta area, but made it to campus at South Carolina where he played sparingly and struggled to make an impact for two years. Looking for a change of scenery, he transferred across the country to Oregon this year and broke out with a .337/.405/.545 slash line, 12 home runs, and a 36/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games for the Ducks. He makes a ton of contact from the right side, with a strong approach at the plate and good pitch recognition ability. Though there isn't huge power in his 6'1" frame, he finds the barrel frequently enough to tap what he has, and should continue to hit for impact at the next level. It's not the most exciting offensive profile, but he should get on base and could hit around 15 home runs per season at his peak if things break right. He's an average defender with enough arm for third base, adding to the well rounded profile here. To top it off, he's young for a college junior and only turned 21 in May, adding a little extra development time, not that he really needs it. He picked up two hits, including a double, in his first four at bats in the ACL while adding a walk.

8-244: RHP Micah Dallas, Texas A&M. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $177,100. Signing bonus: $125,000 ($52,100 below slot value).
Micah Dallas earned some draft attention after a successful three year career at Texas Tech, but decided to transfer to Texas A&M for his senior season rather than turning pro. The results were more good than great with a 5.18 ERA and an 86/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings, so all in all his stock is roughly in the same place it was last year. He sits around 90 with his fastball usually a tick above and tops out around 93, coming in with steep angle. His best pitch is a downer slider, while he also works in a solid changeup. It's not the loudest stuff in the draft, but he's a bulldog on the mound that throws everything with conviction, daring hitters to hit it, and as a result walks have not been an issue for him. The 6'2" righty throws with some effort and given the average stuff, he's probably better suited for bullpen work where it can hopefully take a step forward, and his demeanor would work very well in that role. He never quite took the step forward I was hoping to see, but I still like this pick as an eighth round money saver.

13-394: RHP Jake Pfennigs, Oregon State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
The A's picked up an interesting senior sign in Jake Pfennigs, though it will take some work to make him a major league option. He did a good job keeping runs off the board in 2022 with a 3.96 ERA for Oregon State, but was otherwise mediocre with a 1.79 WHIP and a 30/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.1 innings. He stands 6'7" with a high release point, giving his low 90's fastball some of the most extreme downhill plane in college baseball. Despite that, its generic movement makes it extremely straight and easy to square up, so the A's will want to play with his release and find a way to help the pitch play better to its slot. He works with a slider, curve, and changeup to round out his arsenal, with decent feel for spin that can keep hitters off his fastball but nothing to this point that misses a ton of bats. Oakland's main focus will be that fastball, but helping him sharpen up at least one offspeed pitch will help too. The northern Idaho native throws enough strikes to make it work, and it's hard to find another prospect with his release characteristics so they have themselves a unicorn. He's probably middle inning reliever but he could crack it as a #5 starter if everything breaks right and the A's unlock something with his fastball.

Sunday, May 15, 2022

2022 MLB Draft: One potential hometown pick for every AL/NL West Team

If you've followed me for any amount of time, you probably know that I love a good hometown pick. Over the offseason, I recreated all thirty teams if they only used players from their "home turf," and last year I practiced this same exercise for the draft. None of the AL/NL West ones came true, not that I expected them to, but some did in other divisions. So, thinking about our friends making up the AL and NL West divisions, if each of them were to take a shot on a hometown kid, who might that be? Let's go team by team.
AL/NL Central
AL/NL East

Arizona Diamondbacks: OF Gavin Turley, Hamilton HS, Chandler, AZ
Hometown: Midway, Utah. My rank: #46.
I'm not sure exactly how this situation played out, but it looks like Gavin Turley grew up in Midway, Utah, just over the Wasatch Range from Salt Lake City. His brother Noah went on to play college baseball at the University of Arizona, and and it looks like Gavin followed him there to finish his high school career at regional powerhouse Hamilton High School in Chandler, a southern suburb of Phoenix. Anyways, the Diamondbacks usually prefer to go hit over power with their prep bats, as evidenced by names like Jordan Lawlar (2021), Corbin Carroll (2019), Alek Thomas (2018), and Matt McLain (2018), but they did briefly break that trend with A.J. Vukovich in 2020. Gavin Turley is a supreme athlete that has shown some of the best raw tools in the class, showing plus in a smatter of different areas. He's a right handed hitter with an extremely loose, busy operation at the plate, unleashing powerful swings that produce big time exit velocities. His hit tool has been less consistent and the barrel accuracy is not always there, but he has had stretches where he gets hot and looks like a surefire first round pick. Turley has also turned in some plus-plus run times and shows big arm strength, giving him huge upside in the field just like at the plate, though he does need refinement out there and may end up in right field rather than center. Arizona would need to show some patience in developing him, but the payoff could be huge in a five tool player that can significantly impact the game in multiple areas. Turley may come into play with Arizona's CBA pick at #34 or their second round pick at #43 if they're feeling aggressive, but by the time they pick again at #82, it might be prohibitively expensive to sign him away from an Oregon State commitment should he still be on the board.
Other options: C Daniel Susac (Arizona via Roseville, CA), 3B Jacob Berry (Louisiana State via Queen Creek, AZ), OF Justin Crawford (Bishop Gorman HS, Las Vegas, NV), OF Mason Neville (Basic HS, Henderson, NV), OF Joe Lampe (Arizona State via Petaluma, CA)

Colorado Rockies: RHP Riley Cornelio, Texas Christian
Hometown: Monument, Colorado. My rank: unranked.
There is some real talent from the Front Range in the big leagues today, mostly on the mound in Kevin Gausman (Centennial), Marco Gonzales (Fort Collins), Kyle Freeland (Denver), Mark Melancon (Golden), and the Rogers twins (Littleton). The region's top two prospects this spring, at least that I am aware of, are both pitchers as well, though both headed to Texas for college as neither Colorado, Colorado State, Denver, nor Wyoming offer baseball. While Andrew Morris has taken over as the Friday night starter at Texas Tech, Riley Cornelio is seeing his first ever consistent innings at TCU after combining for just 17.2 between his freshman and sophomore seasons. Cornelio was a highly touted recruit out of Pine Creek High School on the far north side of Colorado Springs, earning some draft buzz but ultimately fulfilling his commitment to the Horned Frogs. He was off to a strong start in 2022 with a 2.87 ERA through mid-April, but has been a bit more human lately and now sits at 4.28. The 6'3" righty has explosive stuff in a fastball that's been up to 97, a sharp breaking ball, and a decent changeup, and his command has improved considerably during his time in Fort Worth as he's toned down his high effort delivery. There are more starter traits here than there were out of high school, though he's old for a junior and will turn 22 before the draft. If the Rockies wanted to throw him back in the bullpen, the stuff could play up and they wouldn't have to worry as much about his still-inconsistent command. He fits in the fourth to sixth round range and could be an under slot candidate given his age.
Other options: RHP Andrew Morris (Texas Tech via Boulder, CO), OF Gavin Turley (Hamilton HS, AZ via Midway, UT), SS Andrew Pintar (Brigham Young via Spanish Fork, UT), 3B Skyler Messinger (Texas via Niwot, CO), OF Justin Boyd (Oregon State via Parker, CO)

Houston Astros: RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech
Hometown: Willis, TX. My rank: #99.
Usually, the Houston area is teeming with talent, both in the prep ranks and in players that left for school. A few years ago, the Cypress Ranch High School varsity team had four players that would go on to be top fifty picks – JJ Goss (Rays), Matthew Thompson (White Sox), Colton Cowser (Orioles), and Ty Madden (Tigers). That's not so much the case this year, with most of the talent in the state hailing from DFW, San Antonio, and even the Permian Basin. One name from Southeast Texas has taken a step forward this year, though, and that is Brandon Birdsell. A native of Willis, which is about 45 minutes north of downtown Houston on I-45 just past Conroe, Birdsell has been all over the state. He spent his freshman season pitching sparingly at Texas A&M, then transferred to San Jacinto JC in Houston where his stock exploded. However, he went unselected in the five round draft in 2020 and moved on to Texas Tech, where he continued to receive draft buzz before shoulder problems ended his season prematurely. Healthy in 2022, he's pitching as well as ever and has worked his way back into discussion in the top couple of rounds. The 6'2" righty sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and regularly tops out in the upper 90's, coming from a short arm action that hides the ball well and helps him command it. His power slider flashes plus in the mid to upper 80's, and he also flips in an occasional curveball and changeup as well. It's a full starter's arsenal, and the Astros develop pitching at a high level. He turned 22 in March and is on the older side, but that should hardly be a problem given how he's thrown when healthy. As of now, the Astros' first shot at him will probably be with their third round pick at #103, but if he continues to throw well into the postseason, he may not be available there.
Other options: SS Gavin Guidry (Barbe HS, Lake Charles, LA), SS Trey Faltine (Texas via Richmond, TX), RHP Cole Phillips (Boerne HS, TX), OF Jared McKenzie (Baylor via Round Rock, TX), C Silas Ardoin (Texas via Moss Bluff, LA)

Los Angeles Angels: RHP Riley Kelly, Tustin HS, CA
Hometown: Santa Ana, CA. My rank: #61.
The Angels' first love is college arms, but Orange County is a bit light on those this year. Instead, we'll go with a local pop up prospect in Riley Kelly, who has had a very loud spring for Tustin High School a few miles down I-5 from Angel Stadium. A projectable 6'4" righty, his fastball has crept up to around 90 and touched 94 this spring, with more in the tank for sure. His bread and butter, though, is his hammer curveball, which posts huge spin rates and ridiculous vertical drop. Many high schoolers that are lucky enough to possess electric breaking balls struggle to command them, but Kelly has shown good feel to spot it. There is a lot of work to be done for the tall righty, who currently comes from a high, short release point with mediocre extension, but if the Angels believe in their pitching development, they might be able to unlock a lot by tweaking his mechanics. Very few kids can spin the ball like Kelly can and it's hard to teach something like that, so if he's still in play when the Angels pick at #89, it could be an over slot opportunity. He's committed to UC Irvine, so he may stay in Orange County anyways.
Other options: SS Mikey Romero (Orange Lutheran HS via Menifee, CA), 3B Jacob Reimer (Yucaipa HS, CA), SS Jordan Sprinkle (UC Santa Barbara via Palm Springs, CA), RHP Max Rajcic (UCLA via Fullerton, CA), SS D'Andre Smith (USC via Diamond Bar, CA)

Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Kassius Thomas, Sierra Canyon HS, Chatsworth, CA
Hometown: Northridge, CA. My rank: #103.
Sierra Canyon High School in the San Fernando Valley has not one but two pitchers in its rotation that could go in the top couple of rounds this spring in Jaden Noot and Kassius Thomas. We'll give the Dodgers a shot at Thomas, who has impressed evaluators with a strong spring and is looking at roughly a third round selection, where Los Angeles holds the 105th overall pick. He would likely require an above slot bonus to sign away from a Duke commitment there, but the Dodgers likely would not pull the trigger with their first pick at #40. Thomas is a 6'1" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball that has regularly topped out around 95 this spring, flashing a plus slider as well as a curveball and changeup that really round out his arsenal nicely. He has feel for all four pitches, with a quick arm that portends further velocity gains as he gets stronger. The Northridge native can battle his mechanics at times, losing the strike zone and occasionally getting around his breaking stuff, but the Dodgers develop pitching extremely well and I expect that wouldn't be an issue for their staff. There's some real upside here as a mid-rotation starter, especially if a team like the Dodgers gets their hands on him.
Other options: RHP Jaden Noot (Sierra Canyon HS, CA), RHP Luis Ramirez (Long Beach State via East Los Angeles, CA), RHP Marcus Johnson (Duke via Fontana, CA), RHP/UT Austin Charles (Stockdale HS, Bakersfield, CA), 3B Jacob Reimer (Yucaipa HS, CA)

Oakland Athletics: OF Dylan Beavers, California
Hometown: Paso Robles, CA. My rank: #17.
Dylan Beavers grew up in Paso Robles and attended high school just south of there at Mission College Prep in San Luis Obispo, then turned around and headed north to the East Bay for college. He fits in with recent A's picks like Denzel Clarke, Max Muncy, and Logan Davidson as a strong athlete with a track record of performance. Beavers has consistently tapped above average raw power in from the left side in games with a smooth, loose swing, also showing more patience this spring and getting good pitches to hit. There is some swing and miss in his game due to his lanky, 6'4" frame and some inconsistencies in his swing mechanics, but youth is on his side as he won't turn 21 until August and has that much extra time to develop. A good athlete with a strong arm, he has a chance to stick in center field and become a true five tool player. There is a ton of upside here, especially for a college bat, and his overall game is pretty similar to James Madison's Chase DeLauter. Both are young for the class, tall left handed hitters with unorthodox swing mechanics but big power, and good runners that could be well above average defenders in right field. The main difference, though, is that DeLauter hit .298/.397/.589 in the Cape Cod League while Beavers managed just a .233/.286/.300 line. The A's pick at #19 this year and that's the perfect spot to swipe up the Cal product.
Other options: OF Brock Jones (Stanford via Fresno, CA), OF Payton Brennan (Rocklin HS, CA), C Malcolm Moore (McClatchy HS, Sacramento, CA), LHP Cooper Hjerpe (Oregon State via Capay, CA), OF Joe Lampe (Arizona State via Petaluma, CA)

San Diego Padres: RHP Tyler Bremner, Scripps Ranch HS, San Diego, CA
Hometown: San Diego, CA. My rank: #140.
The Padres love prep talent, especially prep bats, but most of the talent to come out of the San Diego area in this class is on the college side. Tyler Bremner is the top prospect on the prep side coming out of Scripps Ranch High School on the north side of the city, and he could definitely make sense for the Friars around the middle of day two if they want to buy him out of a UC Santa Barbara commitment. Bremner is an athletic 6'1" right hander that stands out more for projection than the present product. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 94, adding a curveball and a changeup. The fastball is his best pitch, as he gets good extension down the mound and the pitch can really jump on hitters. As he adds velocity, it could become a plus pitch in time. His curveball is a bit behind, with slurvy action and not much present bite, while his changeup is an average pitch. The Padres would be buying Bremner's athleticism, which helps him stay extremely loose in his delivery and throw strikes. They'll hope that they can work with the considerable raw talent to sharpen those offspeed pitches and turn him into an impact starting pitcher.
Other options: OF Spencer Jones (Vanderbilt via Encinitas, CA), LHP Brycen Mautz (San Diego via San Diego, CA), OF Anthony Hall (Oregon via San Diego, CA), RHP Derek Diamond (Mississippi via Ramona, CA), RHP Troy Melton (San Diego State via Anaheim, CA)

San Francisco Giants: OF Henry Bolte, Palo Alto HS, CA
Hometown: Palo Alto, CA. My rank: #42.
The Giants already have a proud Palo Alto High School alum on their roster in Joc Pederson, and they could add another in Henry Bolte, a favorite of West Coast scouts (or Oregon SS Josh Kasevich, who figures to go in the second or third round). Bolte has been a slow and steady riser in this class, showing off a wide variety of impact tools that have teams interested as early as the back of the first round. It will be expensive to buy him out of a Texas commitment, but if the Giants want to keep him home, pick #30 seems early enough that it shouldn't require too big of an over slot bonus. He's a big kid at 6'3", showing off plus power when he turns on one but also the ability to go the other way with authority. He's still learning how to apply it as a full package and put loft under his hits, but he's improving and should continue to do so in a player development system as strong as the Giants'. Bolte is also a plus runner that might have a chance to stick in center field if he doesn't slow down as he fills out. There's real upside here as an impact hitter that could hit 20+ home runs a year and steal a few bases while playing good defense.
Other options: LHP Cooper Hjerpe (Oregon State via Capay, CA), OF Brock Jones (Stanford via Fresno, CA), SS Josh Kasevich (Oregon via Palo Alto, CA), OF Dylan Beavers (California via Paso Robles, CA), OF Payton Brennan (Rocklin HS, CA)

Seattle Mariners: RHP JR Ritchie, Bainbridge Island HS, WA
Hometown: Bainbridge Island, WA. My rank: #37.
JR Ritchie probably fits somewhere between the Mariners' first two picks (#21 and #58), but high school pitchers can be very unpredictable and it wouldn't surprise me to see Seattle jump on him early or catch him in the second round and give him a big over slot bonus. They've tended towards college pitchers lately and Gonzaga's Gabriel Hughes or Trystan Vrieling could be also be options in the first and second/third rounds, respectively. But Ritchie might be too good to pass up, especially if he's available in the second round and they have pool space to pay him a multi-million dollar bonus to cross the Puget Sound from Bainbridge Island. The 6'2" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and gets up to around 97, getting some hop on the pitch as well. His best pitch is a plus slider that has been recalled by many of the top prep bats in the class as one of the best breaking balls they'd seen on the showcase circuit, and he also adds a curveball and a changeup that he can locate. Ritchie is ultra athletic and gets down the mound well, with the command to make everything play up. He's also a very smart kid that understands the art of pitching and knows what he needs to do to get better, so he could develop quickly. The one drawback to his profile is his age, as he turns 19 in June, but he also brings the maturity and baseball IQ that comes with an older prospect. He is committed to UCLA and will be eligible as a sophomore in 2024 if he goes that route.
Other options: RHP Gabriel Hughes (Gonzaga via Eagle, ID), RHP Trystan Vrieling (Gonzaga via Kennewick, WA), SS Carter Young (Vanderbilt via Selah, WA), RHP Jackson Cox (Toutle Lake HS, Toutle, WA), OF Jacob Melton (Oregon State via Medford, OR)

Texas Rangers: 3B Jayson Jones, Braswell HS, Little Elm, TX
Hometown: Savannah, TX. My rank: #78.
The Rangers do not pick between #3 and #109, which made this a difficult exercise by ruling out two players I think they would love in Jett Williams (Rockwall-Heath HS) and Peyton Graham (Waxahachie native at Oklahoma). We will go with Jayson Jones, who attends Braswell High School up on US 380 in Little Elm, the far northern tip of the rapidly expanding Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. He's not quite as neat a fit as Williams or Graham because Texas does prefer athleticism and positional flexibility, but they like big power as well and Jones has plenty of it. In fact, the 6'2" slugger generates as much torque as any high schooler in recent memory, with ridiculous strength and bat speed that could blow an old baseball to pieces if the seams were coming loose. That alone makes him an extremely intriguing prospect, though the rest of his offensive game has regressed a little bit. Earlier in his high school career, he showed a relatively balanced approach at the plate and performed well against high end pitching, but starting this past summer he got too power conscious and began pulling off balls and has never quite recovered that approach. Because of that, I'm not convinced he'll ever be able to handle pro pitching and get to his power. The Rangers would be taking a big risk on the Arkansas commit, but you simply cannot develop the kind of raw power he possesses and they could try to work out the rest. They took a similar chance on a falling prep bat last year in Ian Moller and Jones comes into play in the third round for them. On the defensive side, Jones actually moves well for his size and should be able to stick at third base, where his cannon arm would be an asset.
Other options: 2B Jace Jung (Texas Tech via San Antonio, TX), RHP Jacob Meador (Dallas Baptist via Burleson, TX), OF Jace Grady (Dallas Baptist via Elgin, TX), RHP Chase Shores (Legacy HS, Midland, TX), OF Brenner Cox (Rock Hill HS, Prosper, TX)