Showing posts with label Jonathan Santucci. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jonathan Santucci. Show all posts

Saturday, August 24, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

The Mets pulled together a really interesting class filled with diverse skill sets that will be interesting to track in pro ball. It's headlined by Carson Benge, a do-it-all two-way guy who looks like he'll be a hitter only, and includes some live arms, data sleepers, and guys with interesting back stories. Now in the modern bonus pool era, teams almost universally sign every pick in the top ten rounds, but it appears the Mets are the one team to struggle with it. After failing to sign first rounder Kumar Rocker in 2021, they did the same with 2022 third rounder Brandon Sproat (then drafted and signed him a year later) and couldn't come to terms with ninth rounder Jaxon Jelkin this year.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-19: OF Carson Benge, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $4.22 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($221,700 below slot value).
My rank: #15. MLB Pipeline: #18. Baseball America: #15.
The Mets started off their draft with a fun one, one which reminds me just a bit of Mets 2023 third rounder and fellow OSU Cowboy Nolan McLean. Benge, a first rounder, has a much more polished, well-rounded profile and lacks McLean's other-worldly power, but aligns as a rangy, athletic two-way player with tremendous physical talent beyond just the baseball ability. McLean is now a pitcher, while it looks like Benge is going to hit. Tommy John surgery stole his freshman season in 2022, but he has been as central a piece as you can have for Oklahoma State over the past two seasons. He does a bit of it all. Benge has long levers in his 6'1" frame that he consistently gets extended, driving hard line drives around the field with plenty of regularity. While he prefers that all-fields approach, he's plenty strong with above average power that he is tapping more and more in games. With a patient approach and strong bat to ball, he controls the strike zone and walks at a high rate, and his overall skill set will be conducive to tapping more and more power as he develops. Some scouts question his unorthodox swing mechanics, which start with an open stance, continue into a leg kick/double foot tap hybrid coinciding with a barrel tip/hitch in his hands, and finish with significant head whack in his swing. Still, despite all the moving parts, he gets that barrel where it needs to be better than most hitters in this draft, speaking volumes to his innate hand-eye coordination. An average runner, he plays a very solid right field with his plus right arm that also serves him on the mound, where he is up to 96 with a deep slider and improving command. The Oklahoma City-area product is a great athlete that moves very well on both sides of the ball, further lending to the projection in his profile. With his athleticism, strength, barrel accuracy, patience, and projection, he could become one of the most well-rounded hitters in this class when all is said and done, with the chance to hit 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages. He hasn't quite hit his stride yet, hitting .176/.391/.176 with eight strikeouts to five walks through five games at Low A St. Lucie.

2-46: LHP Jonathan Santucci, Duke {video}
Slot value: $2.03 million. Signing bonus: $2.03 million.
My rank: #41. MLB Pipeline: #37. Baseball America: #32.
Jonathan Santucci has been on a bit of an interesting ride and he comes with more upside than the typical second round college arm. After establishing himself with a very strong freshman season in 2022, elbow problems cut his strong start to the 2023 season short. Santucci got off to a hot start again in 2024, putting up seventeen straight scoreless innings against Indiana, Northwestern, and Akron right out of the gate (including fourteen strikeouts in six innings against Akron), and found himself in the middle of the first round conversation to the point where he may not have even been available to the Mets at #19. Unfortunately, command woes derailed his season from there somewhat, but righted the ship somewhat at the end and kept himself within the top fifty picks. Santucci has almost all of the ingredients you look for in an impact starting pitcher. The 6'2" lefty is durably and athletically built with a pretty ideal frame to throw 180+ innings a year in the bigs, with a fairly clean delivery that should be pretty repeatable with pro instruction. The fastball sits low to mid 90's and gets up to 96-97 at peak, coming in with above average riding life to make it play up another tick with close to a 30% whiff rate. He gets late, deep bite on his plus slider that gets excellent results, especially when he commands it. He doesn't use his changeup as much, but it too looks like a potential weapon against righties with great fade to the arm side. It's a true big league three pitch mix from the left side, something you rarely find from a starting pitcher mold in the second round. While the Massachusetts native has held together his command at times, it escaped him more often than not in 2024 as he struggled to repeat his release point and execute his spots. The stuff was still enough to overwhelm ACC hitters and his 35% strikeout rate was among the better marks you'll see, though the 14% walk rate showed the other side of that. If the Mets can help him gain just enough feel for his delivery to live in the zone, the stuff will take care of the rest and he could be a #2 or #3 starter. If not, he could end up a frustrating back-end starter that pops for some gems or a three pitch reliever.

3-82: RHP Nate Dohm, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: $934,800. Signing bonus: $797,500 ($137,300 below slot value).
My rank: #122. MLB Pipeline: #165. Baseball America: #150.
I found Nate Dohm to be an interesting sleeper this year and I had him ranked about a round ahead of most other outlets. It seems the Mets agreed, and they drafted him about a round earlier than I had him ranked, paying him roughly the slot value for pick #92 here at pick #82. Despite coming from a big SEC program, he took a fairly circuitous route to where he is now. An Indianapolis-area native, he began his career at Ball State and transferred to Mississippi State after a solid freshman season. He was off to an excellent start as a starter in 2024 when forearm problems shut him down in March, and after making one short appearance in April, he returned for three relief appearances in May. Health is certainly a question mark, but the stuff isn't. Dohm's fastball can sit in the low to mid 90's and touch 99 in short stints (though a few ticks below that in longer outings), coming in with big riding action from a great release point. It's a true plus pitch, and it looks plus-plus in short bursts. He shows a pair of above average breaking balls and can execute them better than most amateur pitchers. The changeup is interesting, as he typically lacks feel for it and doesn't use it too much, but every once in a while he grips it right and can show a plus one. On top of everything, Dohm is an impressive mover on the mound that gets nice extension and a low release point to make everything play up a little more out of his hand. The 6'4" righty also shows above average command and walked just four batters in 29.1 innings in 2024, giving him almost all of the ingredients to become an impact starting pitcher. At this point, the only issue is durability, as in addition to the missed time in 2024, he has made just eleven starts over three years in college and he has never thrown more than 41 innings in a season. Some scouts are also turned off by his delivery, which includes a late arm and late jerk down the mound. The Mets are banking on the excellent combination of size, stuff, command, and release point, and are hoping that they can iron out the delivery a little bit to keep him on the mound consistently. That durability will be the difference in whether he ends up a starter or a reliever.

4-111: OF Eli Serrano III, North Carolina State {video}
Slot value: $656,400. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($41,100 above slot value).
My rank: #155. MLB Pipeline: #224. Baseball America: #205.
Eli Serrano is an interesting one, and like Dohm, both the Mets and I like him better than the big publications. He jumped onto the scene with a nice freshman season at NC State (.292/.389/.470, 7 HR), then failed to take a step forward with almost the exact same numbers as a sophomore in 2024 (.286/.383/.433, 9 HR). However, while those numbers look underwhelming in a year of high offense around the league, the underlying metrics are very impressive. Serrano shows sneaky average raw power, and with his height (6'5") and projection he could grow into above average power pretty easily. At this point, he's more of a line drive hitter so that power doesn't really manifest itself in games, but he has the hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel to elevate more with pro instruction. He's also an excellent contact hitter who quietly ran one of the higher contact rates in this draft class, and in fact was one of just five players on the Baseball America 500 (out of 145 college hitters) to turn in a contact rate above 85% and a 90th percentile exit velocity above 105 MPH. The high contact rates mean that he puts the ball in play as often as anybody, and was one of just four college hitters on my draft board (out of 73) to keep both his strikeout rate and his walk rate below 10% apiece. For the most part, the Mets are buying the bat here with his potential to hit 15-20 home runs per season with high batting averages. The glove is more ordinary, as Serrano shows average defensive tools across the board. His most likely destination is left field, where his lack of speed and arm strength can be hidden a little more, especially if he slows down further with age. So far, he's hitting .185/.241/.333 with one home run and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games for Low A St. Lucie.

5-144: SS Trey Snyder, Liberty North HS [MO] {video}
Slot value: $476,200. Signing bonus: $1.32 million ($846,300 above slot value).
My rank: #167. MLB Pipeline: #155. Baseball America: #142.
The Mets' largest over slot bonus by far went to Trey Snyder, who has a chance to be the team's shortstop of the future if everything breaks right. Initially committed to Tennessee, it took roughly the slot value for the #64 pick to lure him to New York instead. Snyder is more about polish over tools, so the development plan should be more straightforward than not. Though he's not ultra projectable, he has a quick right handed swing with natural loft that should help him maximize his fringy raw power in games. He already has a long track record of hitting against strong competition, supported by a disciplined approach at the plate and good feel for the barrel. The upside here is probably 10-20 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which will be plenty at shortstop. Snyder shows great body control at shortstop to make all the plays that come to him, with quick feet to make adjustments and enough arm to make it work on the left side of the infield. He's more of an average runner and the arm is more good than great, so there is a chance he gets pushed to second or third base by a more explosive defender. There's no question that the Kansas City-area product can flat out play ball, so his ability to impact the baseball and maintain his athleticism will determine his ultimate impact at the big league level.

6-173: 1B Corey Collins, Georgia {video}
Slot value: $363,100. Signing bonus: $275,000 ($88,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #170. Baseball America: #182.
You can't research every player, so every year there has to be a cutoff and Corey Collins was one of those who just missed it for me in 2024. He represents one of the better senior signs in the country, giving the Mets close to a $100K haircut here in the sixth round while still bringing big league upside. A well-known prep catcher out of the Atlanta area in 2020, he ranked #122 on my draft board that year but wound up staying home to attend Georgia. He was more good than great as a hitter and ultimately failed to draw the same level of interest he had in high school, but broke out for a massive senior season in 2024 in which he slashed .354/.574/.772 with 20 home runs while batting in front of 2024 Golden Spikes Award winner and third overall pick Charlie Condon. Big and burly at a list 6'3", 235 pounds, he deploys his natural strength into true plus raw power that he tapped consistently in games in 2024. It's a really short, direct left handed swing that helped him simplify things at the plate and focus on jacking baseballs out over the right field wall. That approach continued to work for him against high level pitching in SEC play, where he hit .350/.538/.780 with 13 home runs in 29 games. In addition to the prodigious power, Collins has a discerning eye at the plate that helps him identify which pitches he can turn on while laying off the ones he can't. The approach is ahead of the pure bat to ball here, so it will be a challenge in the upper level's of pro ball against advanced pitchers who can execute quality pitches on the corners. While he has seen time behind the plate, his lack of agility has always made that a stretch and it's appeared less and less likely he would play there in pro ball. The fact that the Mets drafted him as a first baseman is a pretty big indication that they don't see a future at catcher, either. In that sense, he'll have to hit, and that seems likely. He has the upside of a 20+ home run hitter with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages, which would certainly play in a platoon role. Beyond walking a lot, he also finished fourth in NCAA Division I with 28 hit by pitches and led the SEC by a massive margin – no other hitter in the conference was hit by more than 20. Together with the walks, he reached base without swinging the bat in 34.7% of his plate appearances this past season. Age is a downside, as he'll be 23 in October. He's played one game so far, walking and ironically stealing a base for Low A St. Lucie despite not having stolen a base at Georgia since 2021.

10-293: RHP Brendan Girton, Oklahoma {video}
Slot value: $184,300. Signing bonus: $122,500 ($61,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Brendan Girton represents another senior sign and gives the Mets a potential power reliever. Hailing from the tiny town of Gage in far northwestern Oklahoma, he spent three seasons at Texas Tech pitching to mixed results. He transferred to Oklahoma to pitch his senior season back in his home state, but after a very strong season opening start against Tennessee (4 IP, 1 ER, 9 K), he struggled with consistency and finished with an ERA over seven and nearly a walk per inning. Girton is a power pitcher, with a fastball sitting in the mid 90's and touching 98 in short stints. Beyond the velocity, the pitch plays up further with running and riding life from a low slot and nice extension. It's really one of the better fastballs you'll find this late in the draft. His power slider shows nice late bite and dives below bats when he's going good, but he's inconsistent with it and doesn't always execute it. Above all, the 6'1" righty has below average command that has made both of his pitches play down, and that right there will be the key to pro success. Girton lacks starter upside due to that command and his lack of a changeup, though he is sturdily built and should be durable enough to thrive in a full time relief role. If he gets the command together a little, he could move quickly.

11-323: 2B Nick Roselli, Binghamton {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Mets opened up day three with a hometown pick. Nick Roselli hails from Levittown on Long Island, where he attended Division Avenue High School and hit .619 as a senior. He spent three years at Binghamton, where he hit from day one and got better each year despite breaking his hamate bone on Opening Day 2024 and missing nearly two months. Undersized at 5'10", he uses a quick left handed swing to drive the ball with much more authority than you'd expect from a smaller guy. He's shown the ability to turn on the ball to the pull side while spraying hard line drives to all fields, though that power has not shown up with wood bats and he has slugged just .293 with two home runs in 64 games over his three seasons in summer wood bat leagues. He hasn't faced the strongest competition in the America East Conference, where he has shown very strong plate discipline and bat to ball, though that approach has carried over to his wood bat leagues. With average speed and a general lack of explosiveness, both his range and arm are best suited for second base in the long run, where he has strong feel for the position and should be an average defender. It would appear as a utility infield profile with the potential to show average offensive numbers across the board at peak, though being limited to second base and left field makes that a little tougher. Regardless, the Mets will love having Nick Roselli from Levittown in the lineup if he can push his way up there. He has shown pretty well so far, hitting .278/.409/.389 with a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio over six games at Low A St. Lucie.

14-413: RHP Tanner Witt, Texas {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($72,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Tanner Witt has been a known commodity not just to Texas scouts but to scouting directors for a long time now. A highly regarded two-way prep out of his Houston high school, Witt ranked #88 on my 2020 draft board and had draft interest as high as the first round, but was dead set on heading to Austin to play for the Longhorns. After a strong freshman season in 2021 and two strong starts to begin 2022, he seemed to be solidifying himself as a likely first round pick for the 2023 draft. However, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of that sophomore season, then did not look like himself in six abbreviated starts at the end of 2023. Still, he ranked #93 on my board that year and ranked as the top unsigned draft prospect returning to school in 2024. Unfortunately, health problems persisted into 2024 and he lasted just five short appearances before being shut down again. He's allegedly healthy now, having posted this video shortly before the draft (on his 22nd birthday no less), so the Mets will look to get him back to where he was from 2020-2022. So what was all the first round hype about? Witt's fastball sits in the low 90's, having touched 97 in the past, with huge riding action from a very high, over the top sot that counteracts the movement a little. His signature pitch is a big 12-6 curveball with tremendous depth, though it breaks so much that he doesn't always execute it where he wants it. There's a solid slider in there that he unveiled while at Texas, and his above average changeup rounds out a pretty complete arsenal. Witt has really filled out his 6'6" frame and now fully looks the part of a big league starting pitcher, with an easy, repeatable delivery that he shows great feel for. Previously, he showed an interesting double tap in his hand break in which he showed the ball to hitters before tapping it back into the glove, but watching the video linked a few sentences back it appears he has eliminated that. It also looks like he has dropped his arm slot a bit, so the extremely high release point may be no more. Witt's father, Kevin, played five sporadic seasons in the big leagues between 1998 and 2006 and the baseball IQ has clearly been passed onto Tanner, who has displayed an advanced understanding for pitching and a drive to improve. He was still figuring out how to command the baseball at the collegiate level when his injury woes started (remember, he was only fully healthy as an 18 year old freshman), and while all signs pointed to him figuring that out, it's now going to be a question mark. Durability is of course another major question mark as he has thrown just 31 innings over the past three seasons and hasn't really looked like himself since February 2022, but "himself" is a potential #2-#3 starter who could reach the majors in a hurry. The Mets have a really interesting development project in front of them and although he was a senior sign, he was young for the class and only turned 22 shortly before the draft.

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

2024 MLB Draft: Ten options for the Nationals at pick #10

A year ago, the Nationals took picked second overall and took LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, who in my opinion was the very best player available on draft day. In fact, he's the most impressive hitter I have ever seen at the college level, standing up to such names as Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, Andrew Vaughn, Wyatt Langford, and Adley Rutschman. In 2024, the Nationals actually won the draft lottery and the opportunity to pick first overall, but because they picked inside the lottery last year and are a revenue sharing team, they got bumped down to #10.

Mike Rizzo used to have a type. In the past, he leaned heavily on established college starting pitchers like Cade Cavalli, Erick Fedde, and Dane Dunning and buy-low options coming off injuries or other issues like Seth Romero, Mason Denaburg, and Lucas Giolito. Lately, he has pivoted towards prep bats early and took Brady House and Elijah Green in back to back first rounds in 2021 and 2022. Now, with a relatively imbalanced farm system brimming with top-end bats (especially outfield bats) but nearly completely devoid of pitching, it's hard to peg what direction he'll go. If the draft were to be held today, there would be three names Nationals fans could comfortably write off: West Virginia second baseman JJ Wetherholt, Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana, and Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz. They are more or less the consensus top three players in the draft and are not in a position to make it to #10.

So who does that leave open for the Nationals? Even with those big three bats more or less out of the question unless the underperform this spring, it's still a class chock full of bats, specifically college bats in this range. Would the Nationals want to further add to a position of strength, or try to fill out the bone-dry pitching pipeline? My answer of course is that you never draft for need, and should always draft the best player available, but we'll see what Rizzo chooses to do. There are also a few college arms that look to make sense in that range and you know Rizzo would love to get his hands on one, while a couple of prep bats also figure to hang around that range if we want to go back to that well. Here are ten options, along with their rank on my recent top 40.

1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida. My rank: #4.
If I were in charge, this is the name I'd have circled. For now, I'm fully on board the Jac Caglianone train should he be available at pick #10, which he very well may be. Caglianone is a two-way player with ridiculous physical ability on both sides of the ball, and once he drops one to focus on the other, he could become a monster (if you don't already consider him one). Standing 6'5", 245 pounds with long arms and legs, he is ridiculously strong and creates as much leverage as anybody. That plays into plus-plus power which helped him set the single season BBCOR-era (since 2011) home run record with 33 bombs in just 71 games, good for a .738 slugging percentage. He can wallop towering moonshots to the pull side or easily clear the left field fence for backside home runs. At the same time, he is one of the most aggressive hitters in college baseball and freely chases, and that attribute may be the key in getting the first nine teams to pass on him. Still, even with the free swinging mentality, he runs solid contact rates and SEC pitchers simply could not get him out last year (.299/.370/.684 in SEC play, chock full of pro-caliber pitching). Should he clean up his approach even just a little, he'd really round out what's looking to be a fearsome future middle of the lineup in DC. However, his future may very well be on the mound, and heaven knows the Nationals need that. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch triple digits with run, further showcasing his freakish physical ability. His slider and changeup are more average to above average pitches rather than plus, but if he gives up hitting to focus on pitching, you can see them taking a step forward. For now, the biggest issue on the mound is his inconsistency in repeating his delivery, as he sometimes looks like he's still growing into his ultra lanky frame. That gives him below average command and creates some reliever risk. Fellow Gator AJ Puk comes to mind as a comp, though Puk had a better breaking ball at this stage.

OF Charlie Condon, Georgia. My rank: #7.
The Nationals have some serious bats coming up through the pipeline, but most of them are right handed beyond James Wood and Daylen Lile. Like Jac Caglianone, Charlie Condon would give them some serious left handed thunder to balance that out. Despite sitting out his 2022 freshman season at Georgia, Condon exploded onto the scene with a massive 2023 in which he slashed .386/.484/.800 with 25 home runs in 56 games. He's a hulking presence in the box at 6'6" with man strength, deploying that size into plus-plus raw power that he taps consistently in games without over-swinging. A pretty patient hitter, his approach has played up against high level competition as he demolished SEC pitching last year (.339/.436/.804, 16 HR in 30 games) and struck out just 8% of the time on the Cape over the summer. Still, he does show some swing and miss, especially against quality offspeed stuff, so he'll look to even that out a bit in 2024. If the Nationals were to draft him, they'd have to really believe in his bat, as he'd likely end up a first baseman in this system. He's a fringy runner who plays a reasonably solid corner outfield, but the Nationals have so many outfielders that it's hard to see him beating out guys like Wood, Dylan Crews, Elijah Green, and Robert Hassell from a defensive perspective. I think the bat will profile just fine at first base and he could anchor Nationals lineups for years to come.

RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest. My rank: #9.
Right now, Chase Burns is looking like the best pitcher available in the draft so there's a very good chance he's gone well before the Nationals pick at #10. However, pitchers are fickle and you never know, and we do know Mike Rizzo would love to balance out the system a bit with a legitimate future ace like Burns. A famous prospect coming out of high school in the Nashville area, he made it to campus at Tennessee and shined for two years before transferring to Wake Forest this year. In high school, he was primarily known for his arm strength and electric stuff, but he has smoothed out his delivery and is looking more and more like a starting pitcher. The stuff is as explosive as ever. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and hit 101 in a pre-spring tuneup for the Demon Deacons, and it shows nice carrying life to boot. However, the triple digit fastball is only his second best pitch. Burns rips off a plus-plus slider around 90 with hard, nasty bite that could strike out major league hitters right now. Now at Wake Forest under the tutelage of renowned pitching coach Corey Muscara, his next step is to continue incorporating his curveball and changeup more into the arsenal, and that's certainly something Rizzo would like to see. While he's still control over command, Burns has been in the zone more and more and projects to stick as a starting pitcher. If the command and changeup can each tick up a half grade or so, he could be a frontline guy.

OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep HS [MS]. My rank #10.
Sure, the Nationals' system is chock full of young outfield prospects. But Konnor Griffin bears so much resemblance to the guys Mike Rizzo has targeted in the past that it's hard to rule him out here. Griffin is by many accounts the top prospect in a down year for high schoolers, on my list clocking in one spot ahead of second place PJ Morlando, who didn't crack this article but would certainly make sense. Griffin was originally a member of the 2025 class, but he would have turned 19 in the middle of his senior season and reclassified to 2024, where he is now age-appropriate. If nothing else, this kid is tooled up. He brings premium physicality and athleticism in an ideal 6'4" frame. That translates into big bat speed and potential plus power from the right side, which he taps consistently against good pitching. He has a long track record of performance despite the reclassification, with plenty of experience against higher level arms. The Mississippi native didn't quite dominate the way some scouts hoped last summer, but he's 17 years old and that's just about the only "hole" in his profile. Griffin's athleticism translates to the field, where his plus speed, plus arm, and shortstop background could make him an above average or better defender in center field. This could represent a less extreme version of Elijah Green if the Nats stick him into their system.

LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas. My rank: #12.
Hagen Smith isn't quite the prototypical arm that Mike Rizzo likes to target early in the draft, but if Chase Burns is off the board at this point and he still wants to add pitching, it's hard to ignore the loud package Smith brings to the table. Like Burns, he was a very well-known prospect as an East Texas prep in 2021 but made it to campus at Arkansas, where he has continued to elevate his game. Smith's fastball has crept up steadily during his time in Fayetteville. It hovered around 90 and topped out at 95 in high school, but he was consistently in the low 90's early in his college career, reached the upper 90's in short stints as a sophomore, then reportedly touched triple digits in fall practice at the outset of his junior year. It's a running fastball from a lower slot, making it difficult to square up and lift. His slider gives him a second easy plus pitch with late, deep break to seemingly fall off the table and confound hitters. He's added a cutter to play off his fastball, which he is still working on, while his splitter has flashed considerable promise even if it's not the most consistent pitch just yet. Like Burns, Smith has smoothed out his delivery at Arkansas and that, combined with strength gains on his projectable 6'3" frame, has helped him unlock more than a few ticks of velocity. The next step will be command, as he still gets disjointed at times and loses feel for his release point, leading to below average command. Because of that, and because he's bigger and stronger, Burns probably has the better shot to stick in a big league rotation, but Smith is the better athlete and I see him continuing to rocket up prospect lists as he develops. He's also extremely young for a college junior, not turning 21 until a month after the draft, giving him extra time to figure it out. The fastball/slider combination is absolutely electric and I believe he will continue to improve.

RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa. My rank: #14.
Rounding out the big three power arms, all showing electric fastball/slider combinations, is Brody Brecht, the best athlete of the bunch. Like Burns and Smith, he was also a well-known prospect as a prep in the Des Moines area who made it to campus at Iowa, but it wasn't just baseball pulling him to Iowa City. Brecht was also a member of the Hawkeye football team, but as his baseball career has continued to take off, he dropped the gridiron to focus on pitching. Heck, if I could throw as hard as he could, I would too. Brecht sits upper 90's and regularly pops into triple digits, giving him as far as I know the hardest fastball in college baseball. The pitch lacks typical run and ride, rather coming in with some cutting action instead. The velocity is more impressive than the shape, but at 100, you don't need explosive ride. As with Burns and Smith, he rips off a nasty slider that parks around 90 or above with hard, late, two-plane bite. It's a plus-plus pitch. Also like Burns and Smith, Brecht is still working on his curveball and changeup, which aren't quite as loud but still show promise. And like Smith, Brecht has struggled a bit with command. If the Nationals are going to take the risk here, they're going to have to be comfortable with converting his incredible athleticism into more repeatable mechanics without sacrificing the electric stuff. And if Brecht can take a step forward in that regard this spring, he may not be around for the Nationals to pick at #10.

3B Tommy White, Louisiana State. My rank: #15.
Why not make it two years in a row drawing from that elite LSU lineup? It wasn't just Dylan Crews swinging his way to a National Championship by himself, as Tommy White served as his chief protection in the lineup. Crews hit a ridiculous .426/.567/.713, but White wasn't far behind at .374/.432/.725 and both out-slugged him and out-homered him (24 to 18). White is a special hitter, to say the least. He has downright ridiculous hands that enable him to effortlessly fling the barrel through the zone at a high speed, producing plus-plus raw power that has helped him slam 51 home runs in just 121 games in college, good for a career .740 slugging percentage. White can get to the ball anywhere in the zone, even outside of it, and do damage to all fields. He may actually have plus bat to ball skills in addition to his plus-plus power, something you rarely ever see. That said, his main flaw in the box is his approach, as he's extraordinarily aggressive and pro pitchers will take advantage of that. If the Nationals buy the bat at #10, they'll be buying into his extraordinary natural talent in the box while hoping they can coach him to a more selective approach. To foot stomp the importance of doing so, White is a well below average athlete that is unlikely to stick at third base, instead looking at a likely career at first base or DH. If he joins the Nationals' system, he'll be rejoining not only Crews but Elijah Green, whom he teamed with at IMG Academy in Florida.

RHP Levi Sterling, Notre Dame HS [CA]. My rank: #17.
The Nationals haven't selected a prep pitcher in the first round since Mason Denaburg in 2018, though to be fair, Travis Sykora received back of the first round money in the third round in 2023. Levi Sterling isn't quite there yet in terms of pitching his way to the Nationals at #10, but I think he has every opportunity to do so. Hailing from the same Notre Dame High School in Los Angeles that produced Hunter Greene, Giancarlo Stanton, and many others, Sterling only sits around 90 with his fastball and tops out at 94, very modest by today's standards. His secondary arsenal is made up of a sweeping, slurvy curveball around 80, a tighter cutter, and an above average splitter. There's no true out pitches here, but Sterling is extremely projectable at 6'4" and won't turn 18 until after the draft, making him very young for the class. With a free and easy delivery and a virtual guarantee to add significant physicality over the next few years, he should add velocity quickly. Sterling also shows above average command of both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, putting him in uncommon territory for a high school pitcher. If Sterling shows even a modest bump in velocity this spring while holding his command and staying healthy, he could tempt Rizzo with the tenth overall pick.

LHP Jonathan Santucci, Duke. My rank: #25.
If the draft were today, I don't think Jonathan Santucci would be under consideration. But after missing the final two months of the season in 2023 with elbow problems, a healthy 2024 could easily propel him into the Nationals' sights. Health aside, the profile belongs in the middle of the first round. He sits in the low 90's and tops out around 96 with his fastball, playing up with plenty of riding life. His slider looks like a true plus pitch when he locates it, while his changeup has continued to step forward and looks like it could become a weapon. Santucci's whole arsenal should gain more consistency as he gets more consistent innings, and with a sturdy 6'2" frame and clean, natural actions on the mound, he should be able to stay healthy enough to do so. I could certainly see him pushing himself into the upper tier of college starting pitchers this spring with a healthy spring where he shows three above average to plus pitches with solid command from the left side. And if he does that, Mike Rizzo will be interested.

LHP Josh Hartle, Wake Forest. My rank: #27.
We'll round out our list with one more college arm. Josh Hartle ranks near the back of the first round on my board but by most accounts fits somewhere in the middle of the first round, meaning he won't have to do much extra to earn consideration at pick #10. Like many names on this list, he was a famous prep in the class of 2021 but pulled himself out of the draft because he was set on attending Wake Forest just across town from where he grew up in the Winston-Salem area. Hartle's polish was immediately evident as he made 14 starts as a true freshman, then he took a big step forward as a sophomore where he was quietly one of the best pitchers in college baseball. The polish will certainly have Rizzo interested. It's a below average fastball sitting in the low 90's and topping at 94 with sinking life, while his two-plane, slurvy curveball gets swings and misses and his changeup looks solid. Everything plays way up though because he shows plus command with both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, missing far more bats than you'd expect (33.4% K rate in 2023) and setting him up well to handle more disciplined pro hitters. Really, it's a very similar profile to Levi Sterling if you flip the handedness, with Hartle having the advantage of an excellent 2023 in the ACC and Sterling having the advantage of being three and a half years younger. Like Sterling, it may only take a small bump up in velocity for Hartle to earn the selection to the Nationals at pick #10.