Friday, September 24, 2021

2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the Big Ten

2021 draftees: 29. Top school: Indiana (6)
2021 preseason writeup (published 11/17/2020)

Top draftees:
2-59, Braves: RHP/SS Spencer Schwellenbach (Nebraska)
2-61, Twins: LHP Steven Hajjar (Michigan)
3-79, Rockies: RHP McCade Brown (Indiana)
3-94,  White Sox: RHP Sean Burke (Maryland)
3-98, Twins: LHP Cade Povich (Nebraska)
6-176, Giants: LHP Seth Lonsway (Ohio State)
7-209, Marlins: RHP Gabe Bierman (Indiana)

The Big Ten is probably a top-two conference for both football and basketball, but in baseball, it's well behind the other four "power five" and I had to dig pretty deep to find early round prospects for 2022. In 2021, the league saw five players go in the top one hundred picks, and unfortunately I don't think they'll match that in 2022. This is a pitching-heavy list that, if anything, is strong on left handed pitchers that take up four of the ten slots. No one school dominates the list, as Rutgers and Michigan (two apiece) are the only two schools with more than one player.

1. OF Clark Elliott, Michigan.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 185 lbs. Born 9/29/2000. Hometown: Barrington, IL.
2021: 5 HR, .270/.403/.428, 8 SB, 34/30 K/BB in 43 games.
For the second year in a row, the top preseason prospect in the conference comes from Michigan. Clark Elliott has been trending up slowly but steadily ever since he reached campus in Ann Arbor, bumping his slash line from .245/.369/.340 as a freshman to a very respectable .270/.403/.428 as a sophomore. This summer, he continued to build on that progress and won the Cape Cod League batting title with a .344/.464/.478 slash line, adding a pair of home runs and posting a very strong 20/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games. He's a hit over power outfielder that combines an advanced approach at the plate with strong feel for the barrel to find himself on base as consistently as anybody in the conference and against good pitching. While he'll send more balls into the gaps than over fences, he's not just a slap hitter and will punish you if you leave a ball in his wheelhouse, showing a chance at average power if he can get a little stronger and perhaps add some loft. With plus speed, those gappers quickly turn into doubles and triples, and that speed helps him profile long term in center field as well. It's a prototypical leadoff profile that's especially suited for today's game because he draws plenty of walks, and given that he's been consistently getting better, the Chicago-area product has a great chance to build on his stock even further with a strong 2022. As it stands, Elliott probably projects for 10-15 home runs a year with relatively high on-base percentages, which probably puts him in the second or third round if the draft were today.

2. LHP Cole Kirschsieper, Illinois.
Bat: R. Throw: L. 5'11", 170 lbs. Born 12/27/2000. Hometown: Frankfort, IL.
2021: 5.82 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 48/13 K/BB in 38.2 innings.
There's getting hot, then there's whatever Cole Kirschsieper did the second half of this spring and throughout the summer. Beginning his sophomore season in the Illinois rotation, he brought a 9.15 ERA into mid-April and then turned his season around on a dime, posting a 2.00 ERA and a 27/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 innings the rest of the way mostly in a short relief role. Fresh off his strong finish, he cranked it up another notch over the summer and between the Appalachian League (21 IP), Cape Cod League (12 IP), and US Collegiate National Team (3 IP), he was nearly unhittable: 36 IP, 1 ER (0.25 ERA), 12 H, 17 BB, 54 K. And that was against good competition. A soft tossing lefty when he reached campus in Urbana-Champaign, Kirschsieper has added a tick of velocity but still only sits around 90 with his fastball, dropping in an average sweepy slider and an above average changeup. Despite the lack of power in his arsenal, hitters simply can't seem to pick him up. He hides the ball well with a crossfire, low three quarters delivery, and despite just average command, hitters are always off balance and never seem to be on any of his pitches. The 5'11" lefty lacks much projection and won't stand out in pro ball with his present combination of stuff and command, but he repeats his delivery well and even a small step forward into the low 90's with his fastball could have pro teams very interested. For now, it's probably a long relief projection, but he's my breakout pick for the Big Ten this spring and I could see a very different projection come draft day in 2022.

3. RHP Cameron Weston, Michigan.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 215 lbs. Born 8/27/2000. Hometown: Canonsburg, PA.
2021: 7-4, 2.81 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 69/29 K/BB in 83.1 innings.
Cameron Weston was just barely eligible for last year's draft, but after a strong season in the Michigan rotation, the money wasn't quite where he wanted it and he'll head back to Ann Arbor to build his stock. Weston sits in the low 90's with a sinking fastball, topping out around 95 and adding an average slider and splitter. At present, it's not the kind of stuff that misses a ton of bats, with a relatively pedestrian 20.2% strikeout rate in 2021 against almost exclusively Big Ten competition, but it is the kind of stuff that avoids hard contact and eats up innings. In fact, his 83.1 innings led the entire conference, while he was one of just six Big Ten starters to make at least 14 starts. The 6'2" righty generally shows above average control of his arsenal and should get to above average command in time as he gets better about repeating his relatively simple delivery, so combining that with his strong frame, you get a pretty safe bet back-end starter. For now, it's hard projecting more than a #4 or #5 starter type, so taking a step forward with one of his offspeed pitches will be key if he wants to go in the top four or five rounds. The Pittsburgh-area native may have been eligible last year as a sophomore, but only barely, so he'll still be age appropriate for this year's draft.

4. RHP Jack Perkins, Indiana.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 215 lbs. Born 12/26/1999. Hometown: Kokomo, IN.
2021 (at Louisville): 1-1, 7.31 ERA, 2.19 WHIP, 15/22 K/BB in 16 innings.
This could be Seth Lonsway part two, but to this point Jack Perkins has shown even less command than his Ohio State predecessor. Perkins began his career at Louisville, but after missing 2020 with Tommy John surgery, he came back completely unable to throw strikes and got into just three games after April 6th as the Cardinals collapsed. A Kokomo native, he transferred back to his home state this year and will pitch for Indiana, where hopefully the Hoosier staff can help him figure things out. Perkins has absolutely wicked stuff, probably the best in the conference. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 97 in short stints, adding a plus slider with ridiculous spin rates that can be absolutely devastating when located. He also adds a curveball and changeup, but both are fringy pitches for now. The 6'1" righty jerks through his delivery a bit and really struggles to repeat his release point, often yanking pitches into the dirt or sailing then up. Set to turn 22 this winter, it's unlikely Perkins ever becomes a full time starter in pro ball unless a team like the Dodgers or Indians can miraculously overhaul his mechanics, but I know there are quite a few teams out there that would absolutely love to get their hands on an arm and arsenal like that. In 2021, his goal will be to show that there's more to the package than just explosive stuff and that he's a pitcher, not just a thrower.

5. 1B Peyton Williams, Iowa.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'5", 250 lbs. Born 9/14/2000. Hometown: Johnston, IA.
2021: 6 HR, .295/.470/.582, 0 SB, 37/34 K/BB in 38 games.
The Iowa Hawkeyes may be better known for their football and basketball programs, but this year, one of the best hitters in the entire conference resides in Iowa City. In 2021, Peyton Williams was exactly the kind of hitter that opposing managers circled in the lineup, getting on base at nearly a .500 clip while threatening to send a baseball into the bleachers at any point. He's an extremely imposing presence at the plate, listed at 6'5" and 250 pounds, with plus raw power that he gets to with a simple, direct swing from the left side. Williams is a disciplined hitter as well, taking his walks when pitchers won't give him something to hit, though there is just a little bit of swing and miss in his game. It's important that he keeps that swing and miss to a minimum because he provides little defensive value as a first baseman-only with well below average speed, so his bat will completely carry him. With his power and patience combination, the Des Moines-area product should provide plenty of value with that bat and could hit his way into the middle of a big league lineup one day, though to be more comfortable with that projection, evaluators will want to see him tap his power more often in games and clear more fences rather than shooting line drives into the gaps or yanking them down the line.

6. LHP Ryan Ramsey, Maryland.
Bat: R. Throw: L. 6', 190 lbs. Born 1/18/2001. Hometown: Montvale, NJ.
2021: 5-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 43/12 K/BB in 37.2 innings.
A year after allowing seven earned runs in five innings as a freshman, Ryan Ramsey has steadily built his draft stock in 2021. He worked in a relief role for most of the season, throwing anywhere from one to four innings at a time, then was called upon to make his first college start in Maryland's regional matchup with Charlotte. Despite never having gone more than four innings in any appearance, he took the ball for eight innings that day and allowed just one run to a potent 49ers offense, thrusting himself into 2022 draft conversations. Ramsey only continued to improve in the New England Collegiate Baseball League this summer, posting a 2.53 ERA and a 51/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 32 innings against pretty solid competition. He's a 6' lefty armed with a low 90's fastball and a solid curveball and changeup, all of which he commands well and uses to attack the strike zone to get ahead. He's almost always in control of his at bats and after going at least five innings in half of his appearances in the NECBL, he's starting to prove he can handle a starting role. How the northern New Jersey product takes to that role over a full season in 2022 will determine whether he's a legitimate top five rounds candidate or more of a back of day two/day three flier, but lefties with his combination of stuff and command don't grow on trees and he'll have a lot of mid-Atlantic scouts in to see him throw.

7. RHP JP Massey, Minnesota.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 205 lbs. Born 4/1/2000. Hometown: Chicago, IL.
2021: 0-4, 10.80 ERA, 2.85 WHIP, 22/33 K/BB in 20 innings.
JP Massey entered the 2021 season as one of the top prospects in the conference, pegged by many to be a major breakout candidate that could pitch his way into the top couple of rounds. At the time, he showed a fastball up to 96 and could drop in some sharp sliders, all with playable command and an extremely projectable 6'5" frame. Unfortunately, everything regressed and his stock plummeted. The fastball was down to around 90 most of the time, while his slider remained inconsistent and his fringe-average command completely disintegrated. Relatively young for his class with an April birthday, he won't turn 22 until the middle of the upcoming season, so the Chicago native still has time to turn things around and the frame is still as projectable as ever. In 2022, he'll need to get more comfortable corralling his long arms and legs into a more repeatable motion, something he's been able to do at least somewhat consistently in the past, just so Minnesota can be comfortable handing him consistent innings. From there, if he can reclaim his 2020 velocity, we have the makings of a very intriguing relief prospect on our hands. At this point, it's hard to project Massey as a starter in pro ball, but he does have a curveball and a changeup that he has used at times that have looked good, albeit inconsistent, in the past. There is still big upside here if he can pull it all together.

8. LHP Dale Stanavich, Rutgers.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 5'11", 175 lbs. Born 6/23/1999. Hometown: Amsterdam, NY.
2021: 1-0, 3.13 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 30/9 K/BB in 23 innings.
The oldest player on this list, Dale Stanavich is also the most well-travelled and will be 23 by the time the draft rolls around. An Upstate New York native, he began his career at Marshall in West Virginia before transferring to Herkimer JC near his hometown. After two years there, he jumped once more to Rutgers, where he led the team in saves as one of their most reliable bullpen arms. Stanavich's stock got a nice boost this summer with an excellent run through the Cape Cod League, where he put up a nice 2.29 ERA and a 36/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings. A bit undersized at 5'11", he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has tightened his breaking ball into a sharp slider that darts across the zone. While Stanavich is unlikely to start in pro ball for multiple reasons, his newfound stuff combined with average command and a track record of performance against good competition make him an interesting relief candidate. The lefty could also move relatively quickly given his experience, and anybody who strikes out 45% of his opponents on the Cape is certainly worth watching no matter their age.

9. LHP Brian Fitzpatrick, Rutgers.
Bat: S. Throw: L. 6'7", 230 lbs. Born 6/1/2000. Hometown: Port Jefferson, NY.
2021: 3-2, 6.11 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 20/7 K/BB in 17.2 innings.
Make that two left handed Rutgers relievers from New York that boosted their stock with a strong run through the Cape Cod League. Brian Fitzpatrick, like Dale Stanavich, went undrafted in 2021 but really shot forward on the Cape, posting a 1.93 ERA and a 32/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings for Brewster. While Stanavich stands just 5'11", though, Fitzpatrick is a towering 6'7" and also nearly a full year younger. His fastball sits in the low 90's and gets some ride from a lower arm slot, while his average curveball and changeup give another look. While he has shown fringe-average command in New Brunswick, everything played up on the Cape because he took a step forward in his ability to control the strike zone and dictate at bats. Throw in that he went at least three innings in all but one appearance, and you have a kid with a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter. We'll see if he and/or Stanavich can crack the Rutgers rotation this spring, though Fitzpatrick does seem like the better bet to start long term.

10. SS Branden Comia, Illinois.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'10", 190 lbs. Born 4/27/2000. Hometown: Orland Park, IL.
2021: 3 HR, .323/.457/.445, 3 SB, 34/27 K/BB in 44 games.
Branden Comia was eligible in 2021, but will return arguably the Big Ten's most consistent bat to Urbana-Champaign and look to entrench himself as one of Illinois' all time great hitters. After a solid if unspectacular freshman campaign in 2019 (.255/.322/.370), he's been unstoppable at the plate over the past two seasons by hitting .347/.472/.505 with five home runs and a strong 46/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. Comia has an innate knack for hard contact from the right side, finding the barrel consistently against all levels of pitching and deploying a patient approach that ensures he's on base nearly half the time. Aside from his hit tool, however, the Chicago-area native is lacking a bit in other tools. He's managed some gap power at Illinois, but that power has not shown up with wood bats over two years in the Northwoods League (.200/.341/.270) or in the MLB Draft league this summer (.272/.384/.333). A bit undersized at 5'10", adding loft to his relatively flat swing is unlikely to pay huge dividends, but it could help him remain a viable extra base threat in pro ball. Defensively, Comia has a sure glove and should be able to handle shortstop as a utility infielder, though playing him there every day may be a bit of a stretch. The defensive skillset does portend itself well at multiple positions in that utility profile, as does his high contact, low power bat.

Saturday, September 18, 2021

2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the Big 12

2021 draftees: 38. Top school: Texas Tech (9)
2021 preseason writeup (published 9/16/2020)

Top draftees:
1-21, Cubs: LHP Jordan Wicks (Kansas State)
CBA-32, Tigers: RHP Ty Madden (Texas)
2-51, Brewers: LHP Russell Smith (Texas Christian)
4-126, Braves: SS Cal Conley (Texas Tech)
4-128, Twins: 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Oklahoma State)
4-129, Padres: LHP Jackson Wolf (West Virginia)
4-130, Rays: OF Dru Baker (Texas Tech)

A lot is going to change in the Big 12 over the next few seasons, with flagship programs Texas and Oklahoma preparing to leave for the SEC and Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and Brigham Young possibly joining in their place. Last year, I had to dig deep into the conference to find its top draft prospects, but this year is looking to be much stronger right away. Last year the conference was more about depth than star power, with just three players going in the top three and a half rounds, but then we saw four players go in a span of five picks at the back of the fourth round and ultimately every team except Kansas had multiple picks. This year already has three players squarely in the first round conversation alone and quite a few more in that second to third round conversation, so we could see heavy cross checker traffic in the region. The state of Oklahoma dominates this list with six out of ten names, and it's also a list full of two-way names, so that's something to be excited about if you're interested in it. The top ten prospects in the Big 12 heading into the season are:

1. 2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 200 lbs. Born 10/4/2000. Hometown: San Antonio, TX.
2021: 21 HR, .337/.462/.697, 4 SB, 45/49 K/BB in 56 games.
The younger brother of Rangers prospect and 2018 eighth overall pick Josh Jung, Jace may actually manage to beat his brother's draft position. He absolutely raked from start to finish in 2021, pushing his batting average above .400 as late as April 14th, at one point posting two three-homer games in a six game span against Kansas State and TCU, and another time going deep in five out of six games against Oklahoma and Kansas. He's the best hitter in the Big 12 and possibly the nation, and a firm candidate to win the Golden Spikes Award in 2022. At six feet tall, he's not huge, but he packs a ton of strength into that frame that gives him plus raw power. He gets to that power very consistently in games with a fairly unique setup, holding his hands higher than most and level with his back shoulder while cocking the bat back a bit towards the backstop. While most players eventually end up in that position after their load, Jung is already ready to go before the pitch is thrown and has very little wasted movement in his swing. Combine that with a patient approach, and you have a guy who not only squares the ball up extremely consistently, but who is simply on base all the time. If we were to nitpick anything about his offensive game, it's that he swings and misses a tad more than you'd like for a potential top ten pick, but that really is nitpicking and he walks so much and hits for so much power that it's really only a question at the very top of the draft. The defensive profile isn't as exciting, as he's manned second base for Texas Tech thus far and profiles either there or at third base in the long run, depending on which part of his game (range or arm strength) a team wants to stretch from his average tool set. Regardless, we have a hitter who profiles for as many as 25-30 home runs a year with high on-base percentages, a true middle of the lineup profile no matter where he ends up defensively. That has a chance to land him in a very similar range to his brother four years prior.

2. OF Jared McKenzie, Baylor.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6', 175 lbs. Born 5/16/2001. Hometown: Round Rock, TX.
2021: 10 HR, .383/.453/.626, 3 SB, 35/14 K/BB in 51 games.
Jared McKenzie might not quite have Jace Jung's power, but otherwise he's right there. After ripping .406/.453/.449 in his shortened freshman season a year ago, he followed that up with a .383/.453/.626 line this year and has proven to be arguably the toughest out in the entire conference. However, his stock dipped a little bit with a mediocre run through the Cape Cod League (.225/.316/.245, 31% K rate), so he goes into 2022 with a little something to prove. There are no questions about McKenzie's hit tool, with exceptional feel for the barrel that allows him to spray line drives around the field and run into some solid power to his pull side, and a .626 slugging percentage in 2021 was not too shabby for a contact hitter. He hits from a wide base that gives him nice leverage and makes it easier to use the whole field, maximizing his power output despite not being overly physical at a skinny six feet tall. The power did not show up at all with wood bats over the summer, with just two extra base hits (both doubles) in thirty games, so given that he'll be using a metal bat all spring, that may continue to be a question right up to the draft. It looks like a back of the first round/comp round profile for now, with a chance to hit his way firmly into it if he comes back out with the low strikeout rates he showed in 2021 (14.2%), and he currently projects for perhaps 15-20 home runs per season and high on-base percentages. The Austin-area native has some speed but isn't a burner, with a good chance he'll move off center field, perhaps to left. That would put some pressure on his bat and he'll want to show he can hit at the top of the lineup rather than the bottom.

3. 3B Peyton Graham, Oklahoma.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 170 lbs. Born 1/26/2001. Hometown: Waxahachie, TX.
2021: 11 HR, .288/.400/.502, 7 SB, 58/30 K/BB in 53 games.
This profile reminds me a bit of 2021 A's second rounder Zack Gelof for those who followed the 2021 draft. Like Jared McKenzie, Peyton Graham exploded onto the scene with a strong shortened freshman season in 2020 (.358/.457/.612), though he's taken a minor step back since then. Graham has the potential for above average or even plus raw power eventually in his extremely projectable 6'4" frame, and he has begun to tap it in games on a fairly regular basis. He's a patient hitter that knows how to work counts and get his pitch, though he can get into some trouble in deep counts and struck out in 22.7% of his plate appearances in 2021, which is high but still within reason. Like Gelof, Graham will head into his junior season looking for a way to put his power projection together with his plate discipline and come out an all-around force, but for now, it's still a very nice all-around package. Take his defense, where he shows great range and plenty enough arm strength to be an asset at third base, even showing well at shortstop at times, and you have a profile that does a lot right and not much wrong. It will be up to the Waxahachie product to show in 2022 that he can be a true impact player rather than a "jack of all trades, master of none" and work his way into the first round. For now, he's probably more of a comp round/second round type, but there undoubtedly are already teams in love with the skill set who would jump at him in the back of the first. It's a 20 home run, solid on-base percentage projection with a chance for more.

4. RHP Bryce Osmond, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 180 lbs. Born 9/5/2000. Hometown: Jenks, OK.
2021: 2-5, 7.42 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 67/33 K/BB in 57 innings.
Bryce Osmond was a highly regarded prospect in the 2019 draft, earning second round grades from many evaluators and landing at #53 on my board. Instead, he opted to head west to Stillwater, where his performance has been extremely uneven but he has shown just enough to keep scouts coming back, waiting for that breakout. Osmond allowed at least three earned runs in ten of his thirteen appearances last spring and was knocked around for seven against Oklahoma at one point, but he came back looking better in the Cape Cod League over the summer and showed a very respectable 4.21 ERA and 26/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings. The Tulsa-area product brings a low to mid 90's fastball that is regularly up to 96, adding a slider that flashes plus when it's on as well as a more average curveball and changeup. He has an athletic, projectable 6'3" frame and even earned some scouting interest out of high school with his bat, so when you combine that with at times electric stuff, there's plenty of upside. For now, consistency is the big item on the to do list for Osmond. His slider can flatten out at times and his other secondary stuff isn't always there, and while his delivery is pretty simple, he still struggles to repeat it and can lose the strike zone. We're talking fringe-average control and below average command for now. It seems like he could be one or two adjustments away from breaking out as one of the top arms in the conference, and his solid run through the Cape Cod League could be a sign that it's coming. He has #2 starter upside if so.

5. RHP Victor Mederos, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 6/8/2001. Hometown: Miami, FL.
2021 (at Miami): 2-3, 5.11 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 35/18 K/BB in 44 innings.
Victor Mederos ranked as my third best pitching prospect to reach campus a year ago (#57 on my overall draft board), part of an incredible Miami recruiting class that could produce multiple early round picks. However, after an up and down freshman season, he transferred across the country to Oklahoma State, where he looks to help anchor what could be the best pitching staff in the Big 12. Mederos has huge stuff, led by a mid 90's fastball that has reached as high as 99 with a full arsenal to back it up. His downer curve, harder slider, and changeup all flash at least above average if not plus, though for now it's all relatively inconsistent. He has more feel for the breaking balls than his changeup, but they can blend into each other at times and get hit hard. I've seen Mederos listed at 6'4" back in high school, 6'3" at Miami, and now 6'2" at Oklahoma State, so I'm not actually sure how tall he is, but he's a big dude nonetheless that extends well down the mound and gets on hitters quick. The Miami native rotates his big body hard in his delivery and can be prone to overthrowing, at which times he can lose the strike zone, but for the most part he was around the zone in 2021. As he gets more comfortable with his huge stuff, he should be able to provide average command as he repeats his delivery more consistently and trusts his arm strength. We could definitely use fewer balls over the heart of the plate, and given how hittable he was at times in 2021, there are some minor concerns that his stuff could play too true. Perhaps a change of scenery from Miami to Stillwater will be just what he needs to go from seeing his stuff play down to playing up, and it's also important to note that he was just a true freshman last spring, even if he's old for his class and turned 20 in June.

6. SS Trey Faltine, Texas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 1/8/2001. Hometown: Richmond, TX.
2021: 5 HR, .249/.374/.401, 7 SB, 72/35 K/BB in 66 games.
Trey Faltine was an under the radar but very interesting high school product out of the Houston area in 2019, coming in at #85 on my board, showing off supreme athleticism that made him an enticing prospect as a pitcher, infielder, or outfielder. After hovering around 90 with his fastball while showing great feel for his secondary pitches and a repeatable delivery, he's exclusively played shortstop in Austin and looks to stick with that going forward.  He really stands out for his glove, with tremendous range and a strong arm making him a lock to stick at shortstop and provide plenty of value on defense alone. The bat is a bit behind the glove, but there's still plenty to like. He's a moderately disciplined hitter, showing a clean right handed swing that helps him make hard contact to all fields while drawing his fair share of walks, but there's more to be unlocked. Faltine can produce surprisingly high exit velocities when he really connects, but to this point that power hasn't shown up much in games with just eight home runs over 108 games between his time at Texas and in the Cape Cod League. There is some question as to whether he'll ever be able to tap that power consistently in games given his already fringe-average hit tool, but even a moderate step forward in 2022 would really help his draft stock given his defensive profile. It's a utility floor with a chance for more, reminding me a bit of 2021 Reds third rounder Jose Torres or 2020 Royals comp pick Nick Loftin.

7. RHP/SS Cade Horton, Oklahoma.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 210 lbs. Born 8/20/2001. Hometown: Norman, OK.
2021: Did not play.
Both Bryce Osmond and Trey Faltine showed off serious two-way ability in high school, but both have stuck to one or the other in college. That makes Cade Horton the top official two-way prospect in the conference, despite the fact that he hasn't actually seen the field in Norman after missing 2021 with Tommy John surgery. A mid-August birthday makes him old for his class and he'll therefore be eligible as a redshirt freshman in 2022, so for now we'll just have to project based on his high school profile. Most prefer the Norman product as a pitcher, as do I after ranking him the fifth best incoming pitching prospect a year ago and the 70th overall prospect in the draft. In high school, he sat in the low 90's with his fastball and could reach back for up to 95, adding a good slider and an average changeup that showed promise. His main goal upon reaching campus was going to be getting stronger, as he didn't always hold his fastball velocity deep into games and his slider needed to add power to become a true plus pitch. He's a very good athlete that also originally intended to play quarterback for the national powerhouse Oklahoma football team, though he wasn't on the roster as a freshman and his surgery obviously knocked him out for the 2021 season. And I don't think he was going to see the field anyways with Spencer Rattler locking down the starting job. That football athleticism helps him pump consistent strikes and repeat his delivery well, and now that he's presumably focusing solely on baseball, I'm excited to see how he comes out throwing once healthy in 2022, where he has a chance to step into the Sooners' weekend rotation. At the plate, Horton shows above average raw power from the right side, though his swing can get long and he has shown swing and miss issues in the past. We obviously have that aforementioned athleticism, which combined with his strong arm makes him a good bet to stick at shortstop long term. He'll have a lot riding in this spring but if he doesn't like his offers come draft day, he'll have plenty of leverage as a 20 year old with three years of eligibility remaining. Because of that, expect him to be an expensive sign.

8. RHP/1B Justin Campbell, Oklahoma State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'7", 220 lbs. Born 2/14/2001. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA.
2021: 7-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 102/27 K/BB in 84 innings.
2021: 1 HR, .269/.398/.388, 0 SB, 20/14 K/BB in 42 games.
Justin Campbell brings us another two-way player, though aside from his raw power and solid plate discipline, I don't see much reason to keep him off the mound. He was Oklahoma State's most consistent pitcher this past spring, going at least five innings in twelve of fourteen starts and allowing zero or one earned run nine times. The highlight of his season came on May 8th, when he no-hit the Kansas Jayhawks on just 99 pitches while walking one and striking out eleven. The towering 6'7" righty doesn't have overpowering stuff, but really knows how to pitch and screams innings-eating #4 starter. The fastball sits around 90, reaching a few ticks above that at his best, coming from an extremely high release point that makes the ball look like it's coming down from the sky. That kind of approach angle might have made him a relatively early pick even without big velocity ten years ago, though today it's not as in style. He drops in a big curveball with a ton of depth as well as an above average changeup. Campbell repeats his delivery extremely well and throws everything, including the offspeed stuff, for strikes, screaming dependability with a more old school profile. If he adds a tick of velocity in 2022, which could happen especially if he gives up hitting, it looks like a pretty safe second round profile. Now with the current velocity, he probably fits better in the third.

9. SS/RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 7/24/2001. Hometown: Willow Springs, NC.
2021: 8 HR, .263/.410/.526, 1 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 39 games.
2021: 0-1, 18.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 3/4 K/BB in 2 innings.
Make that a third consecutive true two way player. In addition to playing both ways, Nolan McLean is like Cade Horton in that he was actually recruited to play quarterback at Oklahoma State as well, though while he was listed on the 2020 football roster, he didn't get into any games and is not on the 2021 roster. McLean was obviously a very highly regarded baseball recruit, having ranked #145 on my 2020 board, and is now eligible as a sophomore due to being old for the class. A well known pitching prospect in high school, he sits in the low 90's and adds a big curveball but has not pitched much yet for the Cowboys, earning just two innings last spring and not pitching at all in the Cape Cod League. With his frame and athleticism, he could continue to trend upwards and has a chance to start if he improves his changeup, but I see more upside at the plate. While there are some holes in the profile, he overall had a strong freshman season in Stillwater and followed it up by hitting .261/.469/.522 in eight games on the Cape, continuing the upward trend of his bat that began in earnest during his senior year of high school. McLean reminds me a bit of incoming UCLA freshman Malakhi Knight as a hitter, employing an upright stance and swing and generating leverage through his strength and long levers. It's a power over hit profile for now, with the Raleigh-area product projecting for above average power from that big 6'3" frame, and he does have a patient approach at the plate that enables him to draw plenty of walks. For now, there's some swing and miss in his game and his right handed swing can get grooved at times, and until he cuts down that strikeout rate (28.9% as a freshman, 37.5% on the Cape), he projects more in the middle of day two rather than in the top couple of rounds. The approach is there, so really we just need better adjustability and pure bat to ball skills in the swing. He's an exceptional athlete with a strong arm, though the jury is still out as to whether he'll stick at shortstop.

10. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 2/21/2000. Hometown: Willis, TX.
2021: 4-1, 3.06 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 36/9 K/BB in 35.1 innings.
Quite a few well-known, 2021 draft-eligible names are returning to the Big 12, including top-200 prospects Austin Krob (#186, TCU), Pete Hansen (#194, Texas), and Ivan Melendez (#196, Texas), but Brandon Birdsell (#184) is the best of the group and in my opinion and was the only one to crack this list. Also a well-known prospect out of San Jacinto JC in 2020, Birdsell will be a household name for Texas area scouts for a third straight season and hopefully this will be the one where he gets his money. He has a big right arm that has produced higher and higher velocities, and in 2021 he touched as high as 99 while sitting in the low to mid 90's. His power upper 80's slider is an out pitch that projects as an above average offering, while his changeup and newer curveball are both solid pitches in their own right that help fill out his arsenal. He does a good job of repeating his short arm delivery and throws strikes, giving him every chance to start at the next level. Really, the only question mark is health, and unfortunately it's a big one. Birdsell went down in April last spring with a shoulder injury and hasn't pitched since, and if there's any body part that still scares away scouts in an age of rapidly advancing sports medicine, it's the shoulder. He will have to prove that he is healthy in 2022 to even have a shot at the draft's second day, and in order to go in the top five rounds or so and project as a starter, he'll likely need at least 60-70 innings in the Red Raider rotation. If he does come back healthy and pitch to his ability, we have a serious #3 or #4 starter on our hands, and even if he can't hold up under a starter's workload, the fastball and slider make him a very solid relief option.

Sunday, September 12, 2021

2022 MLB Draft: an early look at the Pac-12

2021 draftees: 45. Top school: UCLA (10)
2021 preseason writeup (published 12/17/2020)

Top draftees:
1-17, Reds: SS Matt McLain (UCLA)
2-38, Rangers: OF Aaron Zavala (Oregon)
2-55, Yankees: RHP Brendan Beck (Stanford)
2-63, Rays: 1B Kyle Manzardo (Washington State)
CBB-70, Cardinals: OF Ryan Holgate (Arizona)
3-82, Nationals: 1B Branden Boissiere (Arizona)

Though the Pac-12 snapped a streak of three straight seasons of at least three first round picks (including at least one in the top five overall), it still showed well in 2021 with every school except Utah having at least three players drafted and UCLA's Matt McLain leading a barrage of ten Bruins as the league's sole first rounder. This year, the league could get back on that pace, with some huge bats in Daniel Susac, Brock Jones, Dylan Beavers, and Ethan Long all having very real first round aspirations heading into the season. Throw in Max Rajcic and any pop-up prospects that could come along, and we should hear a lot from the West Coast early on. Overall, this is a hitter-heavy list, led by Arizona State placing three. Heading into the 2022 season, the top prospects for the upcoming draft are:

1. C Daniel Susac, Arizona.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6'4", 205 lbs. Born 5/14/2001. Hometown: Roseville, CA.
2021: 12 HR, .335/.392/.591, 0 SB, 47/19 K/BB in 61 games.
In 2020, Daniel Susac had a chance to go near the back of the five round draft, but ultimately teams could not meet his asking price and he headed south to Arizona for school. The younger brother of MLB catcher Andrew Susac and a cousin of incoming freshman Anthony Susac, Daniel's massive freshman season now has him ready to take over as the best player in the family. Earning a starting role from day one, he took absolutely no time to adjust to the college level and hit right in the middle of arguably the top offense in college baseball, even rising to the challenge with a .363/.397/.669 line in conference play. Because he's a full year older than much of his high school graduating class, he'll be eligible as a true sophomore but that huge season means he already has plenty of track record. Susac stands out in a variety of areas, bringing a profile that offers both upside and balance. He has plus raw power from both sides of the plate, a product of his long-limbed 6'4" frame that's packed with strength from top to bottom. While he can be an aggressive hitter, he still makes very consistent hard contact and keeps his strikeout rates to a reasonable level, especially for an underclassman. At this point, he rarely walks, but that's not a huge issue for now given his feel for the barrel. On the defensive side, the Sacramento-area product moves very well for his size and will stick behind the plate, adding a plus arm with a quick, effortless release that helps him gun down runners. There are very few holes in Susac's game, with the upside of an All Star catcher who can hit 25-30 home runs per season while getting on base at a solid clip and playing good defense. That's a first round projection, with a chance to hit his way into the top half of the round if he can draw a few more walks.

2. OF Brock Jones, Stanford.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6' 205 lbs. Born 3/28/2001. Hometown: Clovis, CA.
2021: 18 HR, .311/.453/.646, 14 SB, 59/49 K/BB in 56 games.
I went back and forth between Daniel Susac and Brock Jones for the top spot on this list, and even though I eventually landed on Susac, Jones might have an even higher ceiling. He's a stud athlete that also played ten games at the safety position for Stanford's football team in 2019, then after hitting an unremarkable .228/.323/.316 in the shortened 2020 season, broke out for a .311/.453/.646 line this spring with his focus solely on baseball. He packs a ton of strength into a compact six foot frame, giving him the best combination of physical tools and performance in the entire conference. Jones shows off plus raw power from the left side, with a very simple, direct swing effectively channeling his strength into game power with 18 home runs in 2021. He's also an above average runner that can make things happen on the bases, and that translates to plenty of range in the outfield. Safeties don't throw the football very often and he doesn't have that big left arm you often see from these compact power hitters, so if he gets pushed off of center field by a better defender, left field is his most likely destination. The good news is that the Fresno product should hit plenty enough to profile as an every day player even at that less in-demand position and could be an above average defender there. Jones works a lot of deep counts and while he draws his fair share of walks, he can also get into trouble with strikeouts sometimes. The pure hitting ability is there and as he gets farther removed from his football career, we could see a reduction in his strikeout rate from the 22% we saw in 2021. If that happens, he should go off the board relatively early in the first round, and for now it's probably a back of the first round profile.

3. OF Dylan Beavers, California.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'4", 205 lbs. Born 8/11/2001. Hometown: Paso Robles, CA.
2021: 18 HR, .303/.401/.630, 10 SB, 53/32 K/BB in 55 games.
Dylan Beavers is another huge 2021 performer with upside still untapped that could push him into the top half of the first round with a strong 2022. He's extremely young for a college junior, nearly three months younger than true sophomore Daniel Susac, which is something scouts like to see. Beavers produces above average raw power from the left side that he taps very consistently in games, and with his lanky, projectable 6'4" frame, there is probably plus power in the tank. He's really loose in his swing, often just dropping his hands to the ball and letting his natural strength and leverage do the work rather than really selling out for power. A little bit of mechanical refinement to really get him driving up through it will help in that power projection as well. He's fairly aggressive at the plate and struck out in more than 20% of his plate appearances, something he'll want to cut down in 2022, but for now it's not a huge issue and he projects as at least an average hitter if not above average. Beavers' natural athleticism serves him well in the outfield as well, where he has an outside chance to stick in center field if the team that drafts him doesn't have a better option, and he could make a very solid right fielder or a well above average left fielder if it came down to it, showing more arm strength than Brock Jones. For now, because he doesn't control the strike zone as well as the top tier of college hitters in this draft (and an unremarkable eight game run through the Cape Cod League doesn't help either), he probably projects in the second round, but his youth and frame give him every chance to climb boards in 2022.

4. RHP Max Rajcic, UCLA.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 205 lbs. Born 8/3/2001. Hometown: Fullerton, CA.
2021: 2-1, 1.65 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 36/8 K/BB in 32.2 innings.
Like Daniel Susac, Max Rajcic had a chance to go in the back of the shortened 2020 draft if he were signable, and also like Susac, he's eligible again in 2022 because he's old for the class, though still two and a half months younger than his Arizona counterpart. Rajcic is the top pitching prospect in the conference heading into the season, having posted a strong freshman season as the UCLA closer followed by a very respectable run through the Cape Cod League as a starter (4.32 ERA, 28/8 K/BB in 25 IP). He consistently touched 95-96 as a reliever last spring, then sat comfortably in the low 90's as a starter on the Cape with good command of that fastball. His bread and butter is a wipeout slider with extremely high spin rates, coming in with tight, late bite that makes it a plus pitch. For now, he does command his fastball better than his slider, but it has been extremely effective for him nonetheless. Rajcic also throws a changeup with some fade, but doesn't quite have quite as much feel for it as his fastball and slider and he mainly sticks with those two pitches in games. In order to pitch his way into the top two rounds in 2022, he'll want to establish that changeup as at least a consistently useable game pitch, and without it he's more of a third round type. The other big item on his to do list is proving his durability as a starter and holding his stuff throughout the spring, as he'll get less benefit of the doubt as a physically maxed-out six footer with some effort in his delivery. For now, the Southern California product projects in the third round range but I have a hunch he's going to change that.

5. 1B Ethan Long, Arizona State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 215 lbs. Born 5/10/2001. Hometown: Gilbert, AZ.
2021; 16 HR, .340/.417/.704, 0 SB, 46/18 K/BB in 51 games.
Ethan Long is in the same boat as Daniel Susac and Max Rajcic as a true sophomore that's eligible this year with an early birthday, and he's actually the oldest of the three and will turn 21 before many true juniors. Long rounds out the quartet of Pac-12 mashers with Susac, Brock Jones, and Dylan Beavers, and his 1.121 OPS in 2021 healthily bested all three of the others. For now, he's mostly a one tool player, but it's a loud one. The Phoenix-area native has plus raw power from the right side, flinging the barrel through the zone with ease with a ton of bat speed that helps him blast baseballs impressive distances to all fields. He taps that power very consistently in games and needed no time to adjust to Pac-12 pitching, still holding a .330/.423/.680 line against in-conference opponents. For now, that power comes with a healthy amount of swing and miss, with his 24% strikeout rate also the highest of the quartet stemming from an aggressive approach and the need to better identify pitches. He also does not provide much defensive value as a below average runner, but more seasoning and exposure in the field this spring could shed light as to whether he could stick in a corner outfield spot or just be limited to first base. Long's strong arm has run fastballs up to 97 and he even earned 6.2 (scoreless) innings out of the Sun Devil bullpen in 2021, so that could help make right field work. If he comes out in 2022 with a more selective approach at the plate and cuts his strikeout rate to under 20%, he could mash his way into the top couple of rounds with an Aaron Sabato/Seth Beer type of profile.

6. LHP Cooper Hjerpe, Oregon State.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 3/16/2001. Hometown: Capay, CA.
2021: 3-6, 4.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 98/27 K/BB in 77 innings.
Cooper Hjerpe is a favorite sleeper among Pacific Northwest area scouts, with a profile somewhat similar to TCU lefty Austin Krob, except that he's a year and a half younger with more time to build on his game. Hjerpe sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can run it up as high as 97, adding a sweeping slider and a sinking changeup. The fastball comes in with a flat approach angle, while his slider can pop out of his hand at times but can also show big lateral break, while his changeup has great separation from his fastball. Everything plays up because he comes from a low three quarters, nearly sidearm slot, making everything tough to pick up and producing a unique movement pattern. The fact that he fills up the strike zone with all three pitches is a bonus as well, with a repeatable delivery and a strong frame helping him project as a starter in pro ball. For now, he doesn't quite have the out pitch to profile in the top couple rounds, but a step forward with pretty much anything in 2022 could send him flying up boards. It's a back-end starter projection with a chance for more.

7. RHP Will Frisch, Oregon State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 225 lbs. Born 7/14/2000. Hometown: Stillwater, MN.
2021: 3-0, 2.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 54/24 K/BB in 56.2 innings.
Will Frisch was eligible as a sophomore last spring due to an early birthday, coming in at #201 on my board, but when the money wasn't there, he decided to head back to school and try his luck again. He's coming off a very strong season as a swingman for Oregon State, often throwing multiple innings and going five innings in strong starts against New Mexico, Washington, and Oregon. Frisch sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has popped for as much as 98 in short stints, coming from a lower arm slot that gives the pitch a flat approach angle, with the ability to run and sink the ball when he needs to. He flips in an average slider and flashes an above average changeup, though I have seen him struggle to keep the latter down at times. The 6' righty doesn't have much projection remaining but does generally do a good job of filling up the strike zone, though he can be scattered at times. He projects as a back-end starter or a long reliever for now, with the chance to improve that projection if he can tighten up his slider and/or get more consistent with his location within the zone, both with his fastball and offspeed stuff. The Minnesotan will also be gunning for more innings in the rotation, which with Kevin Abel (Reds, seventh round) and Jack Washburn (transfer, Ole Miss) gone, should be easier in 2022.

8. OF/RHP Steven Zobac, California.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 10/14/2000. Hometown: San Jose, CA.
2021: 5 HR, .240/.344/.359, 4 SB, 35/20 K/BB in 52 games.
2021: 2-2, 4.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 19/8 K/BB in 19.1 innings.
Steven Zobac is an interesting two-way player that has a chance to work his way into the top couple of rounds in either role. I prefer him slightly as a hitter, where he's yet to make a big impact at Cal but did hit .305/.443/.542 with more walks (12) than strikeouts (11) in 21 games in the California Collegiate League this summer. He has a compact left handed swing and manages the strike zone well, giving him a good shot at an above average hit tool in time. With a strong 6'2" frame, I could see him growing into average power as well if he adds a little bit of loft, and together that's a very balanced offensive profile. As you'd imagine, he has a strong arm in the outfield that will make him a solid right fielder, and he's athletic and fast enough to steal a few bases here and there. To me, it seems like the kind of profile where everything could click once he focuses solely on hitting. On the mound, I haven't seen any velocity numbers for Zobac since high school, where he sat around 90 with his fastball, so I'd imagine he's probably a slight tick above that now. He has a short but sharp cutter/slider that functions as his primary bat-missing pitch, and in general he throws strikes. The San Jose product will need to prove he can handle longer outings after typically throwing one to two innings at a time last spring and over the summer, and in general he looks a bit more natural at the plate than on the mound in my opinion. He looks like a late day two option as a hitter, which could become an early day two profile with a singular focus.

9. 2B Joe Lampe, Arizona State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 185 lbs. Born 12/5/2000. Hometown: Petaluma, CA.
2021: 3 HR, .294/.383/.461, 6 SB, 27/21 K/BB in 54 games.
Joe Lampe played with Spencer Torkelson at Casa Grande High School just north of San Francisco, then after a very successful year at Santa Rosa College (.424/.477/.687 in 20 games), he followed in Torkelson's footsteps down to Arizona State for the 2021 season. He may not have produced the loud numbers of his predecessor, but he was one of the Sun Devils' most consistent hitters last year and figures to provide a similarly steady presence in 2022. Lampe makes a ton of hard contact and struck out in just 12% of his plate appearances in 2021, showing excellent bat to ball skills and using the entire field extremely well. He'll likely always have well below average power, having knocked just two extra base hits in 37 Cape Cod League games this summer, but his plus speed will likely help him hit plenty of doubles and triples as he shoots line drives from gap to gap. He's selective at the plate and usually finds good pitches to hit, and when he gets them, he's adept at going with the pitch and getting his best swing off. His future position is a bit up in the air, but he should provide positive value wherever he ends up, whether that's shortstop (probably only in the best-case scenario), second base, or the outfield. Lampe looks like a late day two pick and projects as a super-utility type who can get on base consistently.

10. 2B Sean McLain, Arizona State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'11", 170 lbs. Born 3/22/2001. Hometown: Tustin, CA.
2021: 7 HR, .322/.386/.519, 6 SB, 52/13 K/BB in 52 games.
Matt McLain has earned most of the attention as a two-time first round pick, but the McLain family has far more to offer. The youngest, Nick, just reached campus at UCLA after turning down six figure offers out of high school, while middle brother Sean is coming off a strong breakout season at Arizona State and could be a high draft pick this spring. Sean has a fairly similar profile to Matt if you take perhaps a half grade off most of his tools, with a consistent line drive bat that has taken very well to the Pac-12. He utilizes a compact right handed swing, again not unlike his brother, with the chance to tap into average power if he adds some loft. The Orange County product is a very aggressive hitter at this point in his career and rarely walks, so he'll want to show better zone control in 2022 to prove to teams that he'll be ready for pro pitching. His speed and athleticism make him a good candidate to stick at second base in pro ball.

Sunday, September 5, 2021

The Top 12 High School Pitching Prospects Headed to Campus

Earlier, we looked at the top position players reaching campus, so now we'll pivot to the pitchers. The pitchers on last year's list haven't quite made the immediate impact of last year's position players, but sometimes it takes them longer to get acclimated to the higher level. After picking up two of the top nine position player prospects in Cody Schrier and Malakhi Knight, UCLA is back with two of the top three pitching prospects to really hammer home a fantastic recruiting class. Because #10 James Peyton Smith switched up and will go the JuCo route, this list is a bit unusual in that there are no Florida Gators or LSU Tigers and only one Vanderbilt Commodore, the latter not showing up until the last spot on the list (though Florida did pick up three in the "just missed" group and LSU got one). 

1. LHP Gage Jump, UCLA (JSerra Catholic HS, CA). 2021 rank: #20.
Gage Jump is the top overall prospect to reach campus, edging out #25 Peyton Stovall (Arkansas) on the position player side. Jump is a really, really interesting pitcher that has made himself a lot of fans on the West Coast and across the country despite being undersized. The 5'11" lefty has a low 90's fastball that has reached as high as 96, while bringing a deep curveball, a distinct slider, and a changeup. Everything plays up because despite his shorter stature, he gets exceptional extension for his size and puts big spin rates on his stuff, creating a ton of movement in the best way. That fastball sneaks up on hitters and regularly evades barrels up in the zone, while his curveball plays off it really well. He does a good job of pounding the strike zone and a little more refinement when it comes to repeating his delivery could give him above average command. Jump has been noted for his knowledge of the game and feel for pitching on top of everything else, which should help him jump into that UCLA rotation right away after it lost Nick Nastrini (Dodgers, fourth round), Jesse Bergin (Marlins, eleventh round), Sean Mullen (Rays, eleventh round), and Zach Pettway (Indians, sixteenth round) to the draft. Some have compared the Orange County product to a left handed Jack Leiter, as a shorter pitcher who uses his body extremely well and understands his craft. Look for Jump to try to work his way into the first round in 2024.

2. LHP Josh Hartle, Wake Forest (Reagan HS, NC). 2021 rank: N/A (removed from rankings).
Josh Hartle was among the first players to announce his intention to go to school rather than pro ball, while Wake Forest is getting exactly the kind of profile that could reemerge as an early first round pick in 2024. He's earned comps to Kyle Harrison, who signed above slot with the Giants in the third round last year, but he's seven months younger (relative to his class) and throws a bit harder at the same stage of his career. For that reason, had he been on my final rankings, he would have been just outside the first round range. Hartle sits in the low 90's and gets up to around 94, which isn't overwhelming velocity but plenty for now especially given his projection. He adds a sweepy slider with great depth that could become a plus pitch in time, though for now it lacks power and plays closer to average. He also has great feel for his changeup that rounds out his arsenal really nicely, and in turn gives him a chance for three plus pitches if all goes well at Wake Forest. The 6'5" lefty fills the strike zone consistently and repeats his low three quarters delivery well, but perhaps his best attribute is projection. With an ideal frame and an easy delivery, scouts are certain there is more velocity in the tank and he could legitimately add three to five miles per hour to his fastball in Winston-Salem as he gets stronger. Combine that with his stuff and strike throwing ability from the left side, and you have all of the ingredients for a future top ten pick, and in turn a future big league ace. Of course, he has to stay healthy, make those strength gains, and hold his command as they come in order to reach that ceiling, but I see no reason why he won't. The Winston-Salem native will be a priority follow for Carolina area scouts over the next few seasons and the Demon Deacons have likely found their heir to Ryan Cusick at the front of their rotation, if not in 2022 then likely by 2023.

3. RHP Thatcher Hurd, UCLA (Mira Costa HS, CA). 2021 rank: N/A (removed from rankings).
Like Josh Hartle, Thatcher Hurd removed himself from the draft well before the event got started and therefore was not in my final rankings, but he would have ranked in the second round range. Hurd shares a lot of similarities to both Hartle and fellow UCLA commit and #1 recruit Gage Jump, with exactly the kind of profile that goes to school and reemerges as an early first round pick. Relatively new to pitching, he sits around 90 right now and gets up to around 93-94 consistently, but like Hartle, there is a ton more in the tank. His slider and curveball are two unique breaking balls that are still works in progress, but the slider regularly looks like an above average pitch already while the curveball looks like it should become at least an average offering. The changeup is a bit behind, but he does show feel for it. Everything plays up because the Oakland-area native (who transferred to the Los Angeles area for his senior year) mirrors Jump a bit in that he gets high spin rates on everything that put ride on his fastball and more movement on his breaking balls. He pounds the strike zone very well for someone who is new to pitching, and while he can be a little bit rushed in his delivery at times, it's clean overall and he repeats it well. Hurd stands out for his feel for pitching and work ethic as well, constantly looking for ways to improve his game and stand out in the crowded field of young pitchers looking for a shot. Add that onto the projection in his 6'4" frame, the freshness of his arm, and the development he'll get at UCLA, and you have a potential ace in the making. He's a bit behind Jump and slightly behind Hartle in present velocity, but he could catch up in no time. Look for Gage Jump and Thatcher Hurd to lead a new era of UCLA arms and try to replicate the Trevor Bauer/Gerrit Cole era.

4. RHP Caedmon Parker, Texas Christian (The Woodlands Christian HS, TX). 2021 rank: #69.
As with Josh Hartle and Thatcher Hurd, Caedmon Parker withdrew from the draft before it started, but by then he was already on my final rankings and remained at #69. Parker, like Hartle and Hurd, is a big time projection play who has a chance to become an absolute monster under pitching guru and new TCU head coach Kirk Saarloos. His fastball is currently inconsistent in its velocity, at times chilling in the upper 80's but at others reaching back for as much as 94-95. He adds an improving curveball in addition to a sweepy slider with great depth, and he shows good feel for a changeup as well. The 6'4" righty has an ideal frame to add velocity and shows a ton of athleticism on the mound, with a springy, low effort delivery that could use a little cleanup that Saarloos and co. are certainly up to the task on. While that delivery can be a little inconsistent at times, when he is repeating it well, he shows above average command that is especially nice to see given that he's split his focus with football up to this point. The Houston-area native is also relatively young for the class and didn't turn 18 until a month before the draft, which combined with his frame, athleticism, spin rates, and natural movements on the mound should enable him to continue trending up. Parker was one of my favorite arms in this class and I had him ranked well ahead of Prospects Live (#100), MLB Pipeline (#110), and Baseball America (#222), and I look forward to following his development in Fort Worth.

5. RHP Jackson Baumeister, Florida State (Bolles HS, FL). 2021 rank: #75.
Jackson Baumeister was trending up quickly this spring, but ultimately not quickly enough to be diverted away from a strong commitment to Florida State. Last year, the Seminoles picked up the top incoming freshman pitching prospect in the country in Carson Montgomery, who was more solid than spectacular in his debut this spring (4.50 ERA, 39/23 K/BB in 28 IP). While Montgomery stood out in part for his extreme youth, Baumeister is old for his class and is actually a couple weeks older than Montgomery despite being a grade behind. That means that he and Montgomery will both be eligible together for the 2023 draft, so he'll want to hit the ground running in Tallahassee. The good news is that Baumeister is absolutely up to the task, bringing a combination of "now" stuff and projection comparable to anybody in the class. His fastball is consistently in the low 90's now and is getting up to around 95, while his curveball shows both sharpness and depth and looks like a true plus pitch when he rips through it right. He mainly works off of those two pitches and will need to gain more feel for his changeup and perhaps get a bit more consistent with that curveball, which can be slurvy at times, but it's a really exciting package nonetheless. The 6'3" righty is a great athlete and gets down the mound extremely well, releasing the ball out in front and making his pitches jump on hitters. While the command is relatively inconsistent at this point, it has been trending in the right direction and some refinement under the Florida State coaching staff should help him get to average in that regard. If he can make incremental adjustments here and there, we've got another potential first rounder on our hands who could be truly electric when all is said and done. The Jacksonville native had a ton of fans in the 2021 draft who saw him as a clear-cut top two rounds arm already, and now he has two years to build on that.

6. RHP Chase Burns, Tennessee (Beech HS, TN). 2021 rank: #84.
Chase Burns was one of the more polarizing prospects in the 2021 class, with many believing he belonged firmly in the top two rounds (both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked him in the top fifty) and others seeing a boom or bust profile that fit better in the third or fourth round. I fell into the latter bucket, but regardless the Volunteers are getting one of the single most electric arms in the entire class. Burns has an elite fastball that sits consistently in the mid 90's has reached 101, playing up even further with spin rates and riding action that make it near impossible to square up. At his best, his curveball has vicious bite while his shorter slider darts away from bats late, but both are inconsistent and can flatten out regularly. He's shown the makings of a decent changeup but hasn't shown his best version of that pitch consistently yet. The 6'4" righty has done a very good job of improving his delivery and can fill up the strike zone when he's on, though his actions remain a little bit rigid for my taste and he does throw with effort, losing his arm slot at times. Hard throwing preps have had a poor track record as of late, and because he gets to his velocity more through brute force than natural extension and kinetic chain, I see considerable reliever risk here. My guess is he'll likely spend his freshman season as a reliever in Knoxville, but the Nashville-area product has a chance to prove his proponents right and his doubters wrong by sticking in the weekend rotation over a full season if not in 2022 then in 2023 and 2024. If not, the power stuff should be absolutely wicked out of a big league bullpen.

7. LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas (Bullard HS, TX). 2021 rank: #100.
Arkansas brought in the top incoming position player prospect in the country in Peyton Stovall, and between him and Hagen Smith, the Razorbacks now have the two most dominant performers in recent memory from the Piney Woods/Ark-La-Tex region. While Stovall went on a home run barrage that seemingly lasted all season against northern Louisiana pitching, Smith threw no-hitter after no-hitter against his East Texas competition and now they'll be teaming up in Fayetteville. Smith is a really interesting arm with a fastball around 90 that can get up to around 95, showing nice arm side run from a lower arm slot. He complements that well with an above average slider that flashes plus, and also gets some drop on a decent changeup. There is some Brusdar Graterol in the profile, with most of his power coming from heavy torso rotation rather than a traditional drop and drive motion. The Arkansas coaching staff will want to smooth him out a little bit and make sure he really is getting everything he can out of his 6'3" frame, with more velocity very likely on the way as he fills out and crisps up that delivery. The Bullard, Texas native is extremely young for the class, more than a year younger than Jackson Baumeister, and didn't turn 18 until more than a month after the draft, so he has additional time to develop. Combine that with the fact that he's coming from off the prospect map in small town East Texas, and you have a recipe for rapid improvements in Fayetteville.

8. RHP/WR Brody Brecht, Iowa (Ankeny HS, IA). 2021 rank: #111.
Brody Brecht is probably the most athletic person on this list, and it's not particularly close. He's a star football player that will be playing wide receiver at Iowa, then he ran track over the winter and into the spring and got a late start to baseball because of it. Then, at least so it seems, he just stepped on the mound and started hitting the upper 90's like it's nothing, so we're talking premium natural talent. Brecht was always going to be a tough sign because he loves football and has no plans to give it up any time soon, so we'll just have to see how it goes at Iowa. Currently, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 98, and it's really, really easy to envision more if he ever gives baseball his full attention. His slider looks like an absolute weapon at its best and he also shows good feel to spin a curveball, though for now the changeup is virtually non-existent. The 6'4" righty repeats his delivery well and stays around the zone with his stuff, so additional focus on pitching should help him get to above average command. We are talking about a huge ceiling for Brecht, with the potential to become the Big Ten's best arm since Max Meyer. For now though, we have a long way to go and we still don't have his full attention. That level of natural talent is just unbelievable.

9. OF/RHP Braden Montgomery, Stanford (Madison Central HS, MS). 2021 rank: #71.
Braden Montgomery's #71 ranking is actually as a position player, where he's a switch hitter with strong feel for the barrel and some power projection. Most don't think he has quite as much impact potential as a pitcher, but he has a chance to prove them wrong with additional development at Stanford. The Jackson-area native will head a long way from Mississippi to Silicon Valley for school, where he'll simultaneously look to break into the outfield and the weekend rotation. On the mound, Montgomery shows a low 90's fastball that can get up to about 95, adding a very solid curveball and changeup that give him a great three pitch starting point. He's very poised on the mound and fills up the strike zone consistently, with an athletic, low effort delivery that could use some minor smoothing out on the arm path but which is otherwise pretty clean. He's been noted as a hard worker who really cares about his craft, so if anybody can manage the workload of developing as a pro prospect as both a hitter and a pitcher, it's him. A few years ago, we saw another BM, Brendan McKay, develop into a monster on both sides of the ball at Louisville. Montgomery probably won't match both his 2.23 career ERA and .966 career OPS, but he could be the best two-way star since McKay.

10. RHP James Peyton Smith, Northwest Florida State JC (East Robertson HS, TN). 2021 rank: #122.
James Peyton Smith was originally committed to Vanderbilt, but switched his commitment to Northwest Florida State in July so he could be eligible for the 2022 draft. Smith has seen his game grow and change over the past few years, and while Vanderbilt would have been a great place to hone his craft and put it all together, he may not have gotten as many innings as he might have liked and of course would have to wait until 2024 to get drafted. At Northwest Florida State, he'll have a much easier time finding innings and if he can put it together this spring, he could be the first JuCo pitcher drafted. The Middle Tennessee native has recently seen his fastball tick up into the mid 90's, reaching as high as 98 at his best from a low three quarters arm slot. His slider is an above average pitch at its best, while his curveball is a step behind. Smith shows great feel for his changeup, which will hold down the fort while he works on the consistency of his breaking balls. The 6'4" righty hasn't quite shown consistent feel to spot his newfound, loud stuff, though he has been a good strikethrower in the past and may just need more time to get used to the mid 90's bullets coming from his right arm. It does take some effort for him to tap that big stuff, leading to reliever risk, and he'll look to the coaching staff in Niceville to help smooth that out a bit. Regardless, I expect him to carve up Florda JuCo hitters next spring and rank among the national leaders in strikeouts at that level. If he doesn't quite get things where he wants by the 2022 draft, he can always go back for another year or transfer to another Division I program. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for his class.

11. RHP Eric Hammond, Southern California (Keller HS, TX). 2021 rank: #130.
UCLA is bringing in the best recruiting class in the country, but their cross town rivals did land Eric Hammond, who has a chance to be a first rounder in 2024. Hammond, a Texan with strong familial ties to California, already sits in the low 90's and can get up to 95-96 with plenty more projection in the tank. He also throws a slider, curve, and changeup, all of which are trending upwards and flash above average and should give him a complete arsenal to use in Los Angeles. He's generally around the zone, though command is going to be a focus point in his development over the next few years. The Dallas-Fort Worth product has a very slow, deliberate start to his delivery, but rushes through his arm stroke and finish which can affect his ability to repeat his release point. Cleaning that up is likely all that stands between Hammond and starting in pro ball. The 6'4" righty offers a ton of projection and should continue to add power to his stuff, and he has a chance to be one of the best pitchers on the West Coast over the next few seasons if he develops like he's expected to. USC missed out on Marcelo Mayer, who in my opinion was the best high schooler in the entire draft class by a fair margin, but should still be happy that they landed their future Friday night starter.

12. LHP Carter Holton, Vanderbilt (Benedictine Military HS, GA). 2021 rank: #135.
Ask any hitter on the showcase circuit last year, and they'll tell you Carter Holton was one of the toughest at bats they had. He'll head to Vanderbilt with one less arm to compete with now that James Peyton Smith is going the JuCo route, but no matter what the situation is in Nashville, it's always tough to find innings on that staff. Holton should be up for the task rather quickly as he shows strong feel for pitching and shouldn't have too steep of a transition to facing SEC lineups, though he still should get better and better during his time there. For now, he sits in the low 90's but can get up to 96 with his fastball, adding a sweepy curve and slider that can blend into each other and a very solid changeup that plays well off the rest of his arsenal. He comes in with some crossfire action that puts tough angle on the ball and adds perceived sweep to his breaking balls, but still fills up the strike zone more often than not. 5'11" lefty lacks projection and probably won't add a ton more velocity, but as Tim Corbin and co. help him get a bit more consistent in repeating his delivery and perhaps tighten up his breaking balls a bit, we could have a Friday night man by 2024, which is no small task at Vanderbilt. He mixes his pitches extremely well and improving his command from average to above average, which I see as highly likely, will make him exactly the kind of pitcher that carves up SEC lineups as if he's still in high school. The Savannah native's size probably makes it less likely he emerges as a first round pick, but he has a very good shot at working his way into the second round range.

Others:
#141 RHP Brandon Neely, Florida (Spruce Creek HS, FL)
#157 RHP Cale Lansville, Louisiana State (Thunder Ridge HS, CO)
#164 LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida (Plant HS, FL)
#171 RHP Will Koger, Louisville (Bardstown HS, KY)
#178 RHP Max Debiec, Washington (O'Dea Catholic HS, WA)
#182 RHP Luke Holman, Alabama (Wilson HS, PA)
#187 LHP Pierce Coppola, Florida (Verona HS, NJ)
#190 RHP Roman Kimball, Notre Dame (P27 Academy, SC)

Thursday, September 2, 2021

The Top 12 High School Position Player Prospects Headed to Campus

Last year was the year of the true freshman bat. Dylan Crews (LSU), Kevin Parada (Georgia Tech), Enrique Bradfield (Vanderbilt), Yohandy Morales (Miami), Jacob Berry (Arizona), Daniel Susac (Arizona), Kyle Teel (Virginia), and plenty of others put up huge seasons that made big impacts on their teams right away. All but Berry were included in my edition of the top twelve position player prospects reaching campus last year, so now it's time to look ahead to the next wave of freshmen. Keep in mind that this list is based off my 2021 draft board, not who I think will have the biggest immediate impact.

1. SS Peyton Stovall, Arkansas (Haughton HS, LA). 2021 rank: #25.
Peyton Stovall was a huge helium name early in the spring, absolutely obliterating northern Louisiana pitching with home run after home run and never letting up throughout the season. That thrust him all the way into the first round conversation, but the deluge of high school bats in that range of the draft gave teams a lot of options, and in the end he didn't get the signing bonus he was looking for and pulled his name from the draft late. At Arkansas, he'll join a lineup that returns most of its core pieces, so it may be a bit tough to break through that crowded infield and find playing time initially. But we are talking about a special bat that should have no trouble making the big jump to SEC pitching, and even if he takes on more of a reserve role in 2022, he should be right in the middle of things by 2023 and could come out a first rounder in 2024. Stovall has supreme feel for the barrel from the left side of the plate, showing in-game power to all fields even out of a smaller 6' frame. He adeptly recognizes spin and that makes me confident in his ability to make the transition, so he'll maximize that power wherever he goes and likely post high on-base percentages. The Shreveport-area native is listed as a shortstop but lacks the athleticism to stick there in pro ball, and he may play a whole host of positions in Fayetteville as he looks to break into that loaded lineup. Long term, he probably projects as a bat-first second baseman that can mash 20+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages in the majors.

2. OF/QB/WR Will Taylor, Clemson (Dutch Fork HS, SC). 2021 rank: #29.
The Pirates may have picked off Clemson QB commit Bubba Chandler with a $3 million signing bonus, but Dabo Swinney will still get a two-sport star into his QB room in Will Taylor, who may have to move to wide receiver given the strength of that program. And that's all I know about football, so we'll move onto baseball. Long known to scouts due to his athleticism, Taylor found further helium this spring with a solid senior season, his first at Dutch Fork High School in the Columbia suburbs after transferring from Ben Lippen High School. As you might expect, he stands out for his plus-plus speed and could find his way into Clemson's center field role rather quickly. You'd expect him to be rather raw on the baseball field considering his split-focus, but he performed well on the summer showcase circuit last year and carried that over to an even better spring this year, so scouts are very confident in the hit tool. He's not a prototypical power hitter at six feet tall, but his loose right handed swing and strong feel for the barrel allow him to maximize his twitchy strength and put balls over the fence. Taylor will probably always be hit over power, but it's still a very well rounded profile. Of course, once he gets on base, you know he'll be looking to disrupt the game and run, and all together the profile had numerous teams interested in the middle of the first round this year. Clemson has a strong baseball program but it's not quite an Arkansas, UCLA, or Vanderbilt like many of the players on this list find themselves walking into, so we could see him playing every day right out of the gate. The Tigers have produced some strong bats in recent years like Seth Beer, Logan Davidson, and James Parker, and Taylor has a chance to beat all of their draft positions in 2024.

3. SS Alex Mooney, Duke (Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI). 2021 rank: #49.
Duke is playing some of its best baseball ever right now, and after making a super regional in 2019 and a furious run to a #2 seed in the Knoxville regional in 2021, they have another reason to celebrate because they landed one of the top high schoolers in the country. Alex Mooney was always rumored to be pretty keen on heading down to Durham, and as it turns out, he was. There's a great combination of feel and athleticism here that should enable him to crack the starting lineup pretty early on, and with starting shortstop Ethan Murray gone to the Brewers (fifth round), it looks like he'll get that opportunity. Mooney is a relatively advanced hitter at the plate that chooses good pitches to hit and sprays line drives around the field, and as he's matured he's started generating more power from his 6'1" frame. His swing is conducive to tapping that power in games, so overall we have a very well-rounded profile in the box. The Detroit-area native is a good athlete that should continue to play shortstop at Duke, and if he can continue to build his game and get a bit more explosive, he has a chance to stick there in pro ball. If not, his steady glove and strong arm should fit well at third base. Mooney has ACC performer written all over him, and because he's very old for the class and already turned 19 before the draft, he'll want to get to it quickly as he'll be eligible again in 2023 after just two years in Durham.

4. SS Cody Schrier, UCLA (JSerra Catholic HS, CA). 2021 rank: #55.
After losing ten players to the draft in 2021, including shortstop and first round pick Matt McLain (Reds), UCLA is going to need some reinforcements in 2022. Lucky for them, they're pulling in a star-studded recruiting class that ranks among the best I've ever seen, and the top player in that group is coincidentally a shortstop to replace McLain. Cody Schrier has been a popular name on the showcase circuit for a while now, displaying premium strength and athleticism combined with a strong track record of performance. He has a chance for plus power from the right side given his whippy swing and the strength in his 6'1" frame, and he's already begun tapping it with a very strong season in the Southern California high school ranks this spring. While he finds that barrel pretty consistently, the UCLA coaching staff will want to work on smoothing him out a bit and getting him a little more consistent in his mechanics, as the swing can get a little long at times. In the field, his strong arm and athleticism should keep him in the infield long term and into pro ball, though he may not always be a shortstop because his actions can get a bit clunky at times. That shortstop position is open in Westwood, but you know he'll have stiff competition for it at one of the top baseball programs in the country. He may bounce around a bit early in his college career and could ultimately settle at second base, third base, or the outfield.

5. OF/RHP Braden Montgomery, Stanford (Madison Central HS, MS). 2021 rank: #71.
Braden Montgomery will travel a long way for college, heading from Madison Central High School in the Jackson, Mississippi suburbs up to Silicon Valley to play for the Cardinal. He was a two-way star back home and has a chance to continue doing that at Stanford, and at this point he's talented enough to go pro as either an outfielder or a pitcher. Most scouts prefer him just a little bit as a hitter, where he shows strong plate discipline and feel for the barrel from both sides of the plate. He's still growing into his 6'2" frame but has been tapping more and more power, and while he's probably average in that regard for now, he could end up above average down the road. That's a great profile that will play well in the Pac-12, with a chance to be a lineup anchor with high on-base percentages and some pop in Palo Alto. If he does tap that power more often in college like he's capable of, he could easily hit his way into the first round. Montgomery also has a strong arm and shows good instincts in the outfield, where he profiles as a plus defender in right. We'll focus on his pitching in the next article highlighting pitchers, but he shows a three pitch mix and repeatable delivery that will get him into the weekend rotation, if not in 2022 then likely by 2023. He is said to have strong makeup and work hard at his craft, adding to his appeal. Stanford is returning the bulk of their College World Series team to campus in 2022, which may make it difficult to find playing time early on, but his ability to do it all will certainly lend itself well to his chances of seeing consistent time in the field sooner rather than later.

6. OF Michael Robertson, Florida (Venice HS, FL). 2021 rank: #77.
The Florida outfield is about to get really interesting, with Jud Fabian unexpectedly returning, Sterlin Thompson entering his first draft-eligible season, and star recruit Michael Robertson pricing himself out of the draft and headed to campus. Robertson himself has a very interesting profile, and with the right development, he could end up a first round pick come 2023, where he'll likely be eligible as a sophomore because he's old for his class. He stands out first and foremost for his plus-plus speed, some of the best in the class and comparable to the #2 man on this list, Will Taylor. While Fabian seemingly has a vice-like grip on center field for 2022, the position will likely belong to Robertson in 2023 and he'll continue to man it in pro ball once he gets there. For now, the Venice, Florida native employs a slappy, ground ball and line drive-heavy approach, which really helps him deploy that speed and keep defenders on their toes. On the surface, it's a similar profile to Enrique Bradfield (now with Vanderbilt) a year ago, but Bradfield will never be a power threat and Robertson just might if he's developed correctly. He grades out deceptively well in his ability to channel his strength, whip the barrel through the zone, and generate more force than you'd think from his skinny 6'1" frame, so if the Gators coaching staff decides to change up his approach to be more power conscious, we could be talking about a five tool player. This is a kid who could come out after two years in Gainesville with a different, even better profile. Even if he keeps his current approach, Robertson could find himself in the leadoff spot sooner rather than later for Florida.

7. OF Jackson Linn, Tulane (Cambridge Rindge & Latin HS, MA). 2021 rank: #82.
Jackson Linn wasn't on every team's radar, but others liked him very, very high in the draft and there were even some rumors linking him to teams in the back of the first round. Ultimately, Linn held a very firm commitment to Tulane (unsurprising given he went to a 373 year old high school across the street from Harvard), and he'll head down to the Crescent City instead and we'll see whether the hype was for real. His bat is unproven against higher level pitching, but the raw ability is extremely impressive. He can absolutely crush a baseball with some of the best exit velocities in the class, whipping his bat through the zone with tremendous force and loft from a strong 6'3" frame. It's the kind of swing and plus-plus raw power that could produce forty home runs in a season, but obviously he'll need to tap it in games for that to happen. Teams aren't sold on that yet, as he did swing and miss a fair amount even against mediocre Boston-area pitching. That's why he's headed to Tulane, where he will get an opportunity to show that his raw power can translate to game power, and at the mid-major program he may have more of an opportunity to work his way into the lineup quicker. There are a lot of teams who are very interested in that transition. Linn also runs fairly well and has a cannon arm that can pump fastballs into the upper 90's in short stints, adding to the physical upside.

8. SS Davis Diaz, Vanderbilt (Acalanes HS, CA). 2021 rank: #83.
Vanderbilt may have lost position player commits Jordan Lawlar (Diamondbacks) and Joshua Baez (Cardinals) early in the draft, but they'll still land one of the crown jewels of another strong recruiting class in Davis Diaz, who will follow the California to Nashville pipeline most recently traversed by CJ Rodriguez and Spencer Jones. Diaz may have a hard time finding playing time immediately as Vanderbilt returns the majority of last year's College World Series lineup, with fellow shortstop Carter Young projecting as the top 2022 draft prospect on the team currently. Even if he does have to wait his turn, the Oakland-area native has the broad skillset that will surely help him make a significant impact on the program once he gets his opportunity. Diaz makes a ton of hard contact from the right side of the plate, and even though he's smaller at a skinny 5'11", his innate ability to fling the barrel through the zone and generate force could help him play up to average power. He's a grinder in the field that lacks the traditional physicality and explosiveness for shortstop, but may be able to stick because of his feel for the position. If not, he could profile at any number of positions including second base, third base, or the outfield, and he even caught some this spring. It's a profile a little reminiscent of Austin Martin if we want to keep it at Vanderbilt, but of course Martin had sublime feel for the barrel that was unmatched by really anyone in his draft class. Diaz has a long way to go before he ends up like Martin, but it's a similar mold.

9. OF Malakhi Knight, UCLA (Marysville-Getchell HS, WA). 2021 rank: #85.
Malakhi Knight will join Cody Schrier and plenty of others on his way down to UCLA, part of an incoming freshman class that has a chance to be very special. He'll bring above average power to Westwood, a product of big strength and leverage in his 6'3" frame. It's a bit of a unique operation in which he starts upright and brings the barrel almost straight down to the ball, but still manages to put loft behind it. He's tapped that power in games against high level pitching, though the swing can get inconsistent at times and he's prone to swinging and missing when he gets tied up or off balance. Knight is also a good runner that can turn in some plus run times, which gives him a chance to stick in center field if he develops well as an outfielder, while his strong arm would make him a very good piece to have in right field. The Seattle-area native could develop in any number of ways once he gets to UCLA, with a very good shot to be one of the Pac-12's best hitters over the next few years or battle inconsistency if the transition does not go well. He'll definitely be a priority follow on the West Coast with a chance to be a real impact player in pro ball as well.

10. OF Chase Mason, Nebraska (Viborg-Hurley HS, SD). 2021 rank: #109.
Chase Mason is a very similar player to Jackson Linn, with the main difference being that Linn attended high school across the street from the Harvard Yard in Cambridge while Mason is from Hurley, South Dakota, a map dot of 415 residents about 25 miles outside Sioux Falls. Like Linn, Mason is an absolute beast, packing a ton of strength into his 6'5" frame that looks more like a linebacker than a baseball player (and he played quarterback at Viborg-Hurley). As you can imagine, he has tremendous raw power that produces batting practice home runs up there with anybody in the class. Whether that will play up in games is anybody's guess, as he didn't face very strong competition out on the South Dakota prairie and still managed to swing and miss more than evaluators would have liked. It's a profile somewhat reminiscent of another power hitter from a tiny Dakota map dot, North Dakotan Travis Hafner, except for one key difference: Mason has consistently plus speed that can even be clocked as plus-plus at times. Imagine Pronk being a basestealing threat. Combine his speed with a cannon arm, and you have a chance for a plus defender to go with that plus-plus raw power. At Nebraska, his hit tool will be very much put to the test, and he has a chance to really explode if he lives up to it. Evaluators were not comfortable enough to sign him away from that commitment, so we'll see if he can make them second guess themselves.

11. SS Michael Braswell, South Carolina (Campbell HS, GA). 2021 rank: #125.
Michael Braswell is a really fun one, someone I expect to play a pretty prominent role at South Carolina over the next few seasons. He does a lot of things well on the field giving off the impression of someone ready to contribute against SEC competition. Braswell makes a lot of contact from the right side, showing a strong approach and the ability to manipulate the barrel to spray line drives all over the field. A twitchy athlete, he gets into great hitting positions and while his power is below average for now, he has a swing that should be able to tap whatever he grows into as he fills out his 6'2" frame. That gives the Atlanta-area product a chance for average power. He shows springy actions at shortstop and could even be ready to replace George Callil right away, or if not, find a role somewhere on the infield. With an extremely steady glove and plenty of arm strength, he not only profiles as a shortstop in Columbia, but in pro ball as well. Expect Braswell to get on base regularly for the Gamecocks while gradually growing into some power, then in pro ball he could hit 10-15 home runs a year with solid on-base percentages. One thing he lacks is speed, even if it doesn't affect his ability at shortstop, so he may not fit that prototypical leadoff role.

12. OF Thomas DiLandri, Texas Christian (Palo Verde HS, NV). 2021 rank: #126.
Thomas DiLandri has plenty of tools and showed flashes of greatness on the summer showcase circuit, at his best performing right up there with the first rounders. However, his inconsistency led teams to be a little more cautious with their bonus offers, and ultimately he'll head to TCU instead to prove his tools. DiLandri is a great athlete with lots of lean strength in his 6'3" frame, showing potential plus power from the right side that he has tapped in games against good pitching. He has performed well against some of the better arms in the class, but his swing can be inconsistent in games and he can lapse into periods of high strikeouts. In the field, the Las Vegas product is an above average runner with a plus arm that may stick in center field or at least be an asset in right field, so he really brings the whole package as a player. If DiLandri can pull it all together and play to his potential, he'll likely be one of the best all-around players in the Big 12 and make the teams that passed over him look like fools. There's always the flip side, though, if he continues to be plagued by inconsistency and ends up a poor man's Jud Fabian. They're excited to have him in Fort Worth, as this is what a baseball player looks like if you draw him up and he could very well be a first round pick in 2024.

Others:
#127 3B Tommy White, North Carolina State (IMG Academy, FL)
#132 SS Eddie Saldivar, Long Beach State (San Joaquin Memorial HS, CA)
UR OF Lorenzo Carrier, Miami (Appoquinimink HS, DE, pulled himself from the draft)
#143 OF Tyree Reed, Oregon State (American Canyon HS, OR)
#150 OF Camden Hayslip, Alabama (Friendship Christian HS, TN)
#152 SS Drake Varnado, Arkansas (IMG Academy, FL)
#153 2B Roc Riggio, Oklahoma State (Thousand Oaks HS, CA)
#160 C Rene Lastres, Florida (Calvary Christian HS, FL)