Earlier, we looked at the top position players reaching campus, so now we'll pivot to the pitchers. The pitchers on last year's list haven't quite made the immediate impact of last year's position players, but sometimes it takes them longer to get acclimated to the higher level. After picking up two of the top nine position player prospects in Cody Schrier and Malakhi Knight, UCLA is back with two of the top three pitching prospects to really hammer home a fantastic recruiting class. Because #10 James Peyton Smith switched up and will go the JuCo route, this list is a bit unusual in that there are no Florida Gators or LSU Tigers and only one Vanderbilt Commodore, the latter not showing up until the last spot on the list (though Florida did pick up three in the "just missed" group and LSU got one).
1. LHP Gage Jump, UCLA (JSerra Catholic HS, CA). 2021 rank: #20.
Gage Jump is the top overall prospect to reach campus, edging out #25 Peyton Stovall (Arkansas) on the position player side. Jump is a really, really interesting pitcher that has made himself a lot of fans on the West Coast and across the country despite being undersized. The 5'11" lefty has a low 90's fastball that has reached as high as 96, while bringing a deep curveball, a distinct slider, and a changeup. Everything plays up because despite his shorter stature, he gets exceptional extension for his size and puts big spin rates on his stuff, creating a ton of movement in the best way. That fastball sneaks up on hitters and regularly evades barrels up in the zone, while his curveball plays off it really well. He does a good job of pounding the strike zone and a little more refinement when it comes to repeating his delivery could give him above average command. Jump has been noted for his knowledge of the game and feel for pitching on top of everything else, which should help him jump into that UCLA rotation right away after it lost Nick Nastrini (Dodgers, fourth round), Jesse Bergin (Marlins, eleventh round), Sean Mullen (Rays, eleventh round), and Zach Pettway (Indians, sixteenth round) to the draft. Some have compared the Orange County product to a left handed Jack Leiter, as a shorter pitcher who uses his body extremely well and understands his craft. Look for Jump to try to work his way into the first round in 2024.
2. LHP Josh Hartle, Wake Forest (Reagan HS, NC). 2021 rank: N/A (removed from rankings).
Josh Hartle was among the first players to announce his intention to go to school rather than pro ball, while Wake Forest is getting exactly the kind of profile that could reemerge as an early first round pick in 2024. He's earned comps to Kyle Harrison, who signed above slot with the Giants in the third round last year, but he's seven months younger (relative to his class) and throws a bit harder at the same stage of his career. For that reason, had he been on my final rankings, he would have been just outside the first round range. Hartle sits in the low 90's and gets up to around 94, which isn't overwhelming velocity but plenty for now especially given his projection. He adds a sweepy slider with great depth that could become a plus pitch in time, though for now it lacks power and plays closer to average. He also has great feel for his changeup that rounds out his arsenal really nicely, and in turn gives him a chance for three plus pitches if all goes well at Wake Forest. The 6'5" lefty fills the strike zone consistently and repeats his low three quarters delivery well, but perhaps his best attribute is projection. With an ideal frame and an easy delivery, scouts are certain there is more velocity in the tank and he could legitimately add three to five miles per hour to his fastball in Winston-Salem as he gets stronger. Combine that with his stuff and strike throwing ability from the left side, and you have all of the ingredients for a future top ten pick, and in turn a future big league ace. Of course, he has to stay healthy, make those strength gains, and hold his command as they come in order to reach that ceiling, but I see no reason why he won't. The Winston-Salem native will be a priority follow for Carolina area scouts over the next few seasons and the Demon Deacons have likely found their heir to Ryan Cusick at the front of their rotation, if not in 2022 then likely by 2023.
3. RHP Thatcher Hurd, UCLA (Mira Costa HS, CA). 2021 rank: N/A (removed from rankings).
Like Josh Hartle, Thatcher Hurd removed himself from the draft well before the event got started and therefore was not in my final rankings, but he would have ranked in the second round range. Hurd shares a lot of similarities to both Hartle and fellow UCLA commit and #1 recruit Gage Jump, with exactly the kind of profile that goes to school and reemerges as an early first round pick. Relatively new to pitching, he sits around 90 right now and gets up to around 93-94 consistently, but like Hartle, there is a ton more in the tank. His slider and curveball are two unique breaking balls that are still works in progress, but the slider regularly looks like an above average pitch already while the curveball looks like it should become at least an average offering. The changeup is a bit behind, but he does show feel for it. Everything plays up because the Oakland-area native (who transferred to the Los Angeles area for his senior year) mirrors Jump a bit in that he gets high spin rates on everything that put ride on his fastball and more movement on his breaking balls. He pounds the strike zone very well for someone who is new to pitching, and while he can be a little bit rushed in his delivery at times, it's clean overall and he repeats it well. Hurd stands out for his feel for pitching and work ethic as well, constantly looking for ways to improve his game and stand out in the crowded field of young pitchers looking for a shot. Add that onto the projection in his 6'4" frame, the freshness of his arm, and the development he'll get at UCLA, and you have a potential ace in the making. He's a bit behind Jump and slightly behind Hartle in present velocity, but he could catch up in no time. Look for Gage Jump and Thatcher Hurd to lead a new era of UCLA arms and try to replicate the Trevor Bauer/Gerrit Cole era.
4. RHP Caedmon Parker, Texas Christian (The Woodlands Christian HS, TX). 2021 rank: #69.
As with Josh Hartle and Thatcher Hurd, Caedmon Parker withdrew from the draft before it started, but by then he was already on my final rankings and remained at #69. Parker, like Hartle and Hurd, is a big time projection play who has a chance to become an absolute monster under pitching guru and new TCU head coach Kirk Saarloos. His fastball is currently inconsistent in its velocity, at times chilling in the upper 80's but at others reaching back for as much as 94-95. He adds an improving curveball in addition to a sweepy slider with great depth, and he shows good feel for a changeup as well. The 6'4" righty has an ideal frame to add velocity and shows a ton of athleticism on the mound, with a springy, low effort delivery that could use a little cleanup that Saarloos and co. are certainly up to the task on. While that delivery can be a little inconsistent at times, when he is repeating it well, he shows above average command that is especially nice to see given that he's split his focus with football up to this point. The Houston-area native is also relatively young for the class and didn't turn 18 until a month before the draft, which combined with his frame, athleticism, spin rates, and natural movements on the mound should enable him to continue trending up. Parker was one of my favorite arms in this class and I had him ranked well ahead of Prospects Live (#100), MLB Pipeline (#110), and Baseball America (#222), and I look forward to following his development in Fort Worth.
5. RHP Jackson Baumeister, Florida State (Bolles HS, FL). 2021 rank: #75.
Jackson Baumeister was trending up quickly this spring, but ultimately not quickly enough to be diverted away from a strong commitment to Florida State. Last year, the Seminoles picked up the top incoming freshman pitching prospect in the country in Carson Montgomery, who was more solid than spectacular in his debut this spring (4.50 ERA, 39/23 K/BB in 28 IP). While Montgomery stood out in part for his extreme youth, Baumeister is old for his class and is actually a couple weeks older than Montgomery despite being a grade behind. That means that he and Montgomery will both be eligible together for the 2023 draft, so he'll want to hit the ground running in Tallahassee. The good news is that Baumeister is absolutely up to the task, bringing a combination of "now" stuff and projection comparable to anybody in the class. His fastball is consistently in the low 90's now and is getting up to around 95, while his curveball shows both sharpness and depth and looks like a true plus pitch when he rips through it right. He mainly works off of those two pitches and will need to gain more feel for his changeup and perhaps get a bit more consistent with that curveball, which can be slurvy at times, but it's a really exciting package nonetheless. The 6'3" righty is a great athlete and gets down the mound extremely well, releasing the ball out in front and making his pitches jump on hitters. While the command is relatively inconsistent at this point, it has been trending in the right direction and some refinement under the Florida State coaching staff should help him get to average in that regard. If he can make incremental adjustments here and there, we've got another potential first rounder on our hands who could be truly electric when all is said and done. The Jacksonville native had a ton of fans in the 2021 draft who saw him as a clear-cut top two rounds arm already, and now he has two years to build on that.
6. RHP Chase Burns, Tennessee (Beech HS, TN). 2021 rank: #84.
Chase Burns was one of the more polarizing prospects in the 2021 class, with many believing he belonged firmly in the top two rounds (both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked him in the top fifty) and others seeing a boom or bust profile that fit better in the third or fourth round. I fell into the latter bucket, but regardless the Volunteers are getting one of the single most electric arms in the entire class. Burns has an elite fastball that sits consistently in the mid 90's has reached 101, playing up even further with spin rates and riding action that make it near impossible to square up. At his best, his curveball has vicious bite while his shorter slider darts away from bats late, but both are inconsistent and can flatten out regularly. He's shown the makings of a decent changeup but hasn't shown his best version of that pitch consistently yet. The 6'4" righty has done a very good job of improving his delivery and can fill up the strike zone when he's on, though his actions remain a little bit rigid for my taste and he does throw with effort, losing his arm slot at times. Hard throwing preps have had a poor track record as of late, and because he gets to his velocity more through brute force than natural extension and kinetic chain, I see considerable reliever risk here. My guess is he'll likely spend his freshman season as a reliever in Knoxville, but the Nashville-area product has a chance to prove his proponents right and his doubters wrong by sticking in the weekend rotation over a full season if not in 2022 then in 2023 and 2024. If not, the power stuff should be absolutely wicked out of a big league bullpen.
7. LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas (Bullard HS, TX). 2021 rank: #100.
Arkansas brought in the top incoming position player prospect in the country in Peyton Stovall, and between him and Hagen Smith, the Razorbacks now have the two most dominant performers in recent memory from the Piney Woods/Ark-La-Tex region. While Stovall went on a home run barrage that seemingly lasted all season against northern Louisiana pitching, Smith threw no-hitter after no-hitter against his East Texas competition and now they'll be teaming up in Fayetteville. Smith is a really interesting arm with a fastball around 90 that can get up to around 95, showing nice arm side run from a lower arm slot. He complements that well with an above average slider that flashes plus, and also gets some drop on a decent changeup. There is some Brusdar Graterol in the profile, with most of his power coming from heavy torso rotation rather than a traditional drop and drive motion. The Arkansas coaching staff will want to smooth him out a little bit and make sure he really is getting everything he can out of his 6'3" frame, with more velocity very likely on the way as he fills out and crisps up that delivery. The Bullard, Texas native is extremely young for the class, more than a year younger than Jackson Baumeister, and didn't turn 18 until more than a month after the draft, so he has additional time to develop. Combine that with the fact that he's coming from off the prospect map in small town East Texas, and you have a recipe for rapid improvements in Fayetteville.
8. RHP/WR Brody Brecht, Iowa (Ankeny HS, IA). 2021 rank: #111.
Brody Brecht is probably the most athletic person on this list, and it's not particularly close. He's a star football player that will be playing wide receiver at Iowa, then he ran track over the winter and into the spring and got a late start to baseball because of it. Then, at least so it seems, he just stepped on the mound and started hitting the upper 90's like it's nothing, so we're talking premium natural talent. Brecht was always going to be a tough sign because he loves football and has no plans to give it up any time soon, so we'll just have to see how it goes at Iowa. Currently, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 98, and it's really, really easy to envision more if he ever gives baseball his full attention. His slider looks like an absolute weapon at its best and he also shows good feel to spin a curveball, though for now the changeup is virtually non-existent. The 6'4" righty repeats his delivery well and stays around the zone with his stuff, so additional focus on pitching should help him get to above average command. We are talking about a huge ceiling for Brecht, with the potential to become the Big Ten's best arm since Max Meyer. For now though, we have a long way to go and we still don't have his full attention. That level of natural talent is just unbelievable.
9. OF/RHP Braden Montgomery, Stanford (Madison Central HS, MS). 2021 rank: #71.
Braden Montgomery's #71 ranking is actually as a position player, where he's a switch hitter with strong feel for the barrel and some power projection. Most don't think he has quite as much impact potential as a pitcher, but he has a chance to prove them wrong with additional development at Stanford. The Jackson-area native will head a long way from Mississippi to Silicon Valley for school, where he'll simultaneously look to break into the outfield and the weekend rotation. On the mound, Montgomery shows a low 90's fastball that can get up to about 95, adding a very solid curveball and changeup that give him a great three pitch starting point. He's very poised on the mound and fills up the strike zone consistently, with an athletic, low effort delivery that could use some minor smoothing out on the arm path but which is otherwise pretty clean. He's been noted as a hard worker who really cares about his craft, so if anybody can manage the workload of developing as a pro prospect as both a hitter and a pitcher, it's him. A few years ago, we saw another BM, Brendan McKay, develop into a monster on both sides of the ball at Louisville. Montgomery probably won't match both his 2.23 career ERA and .966 career OPS, but he could be the best two-way star since McKay.
10. RHP James Peyton Smith, Northwest Florida State JC (East Robertson HS, TN). 2021 rank: #122.
James Peyton Smith was originally committed to Vanderbilt, but switched his commitment to Northwest Florida State in July so he could be eligible for the 2022 draft. Smith has seen his game grow and change over the past few years, and while Vanderbilt would have been a great place to hone his craft and put it all together, he may not have gotten as many innings as he might have liked and of course would have to wait until 2024 to get drafted. At Northwest Florida State, he'll have a much easier time finding innings and if he can put it together this spring, he could be the first JuCo pitcher drafted. The Middle Tennessee native has recently seen his fastball tick up into the mid 90's, reaching as high as 98 at his best from a low three quarters arm slot. His slider is an above average pitch at its best, while his curveball is a step behind. Smith shows great feel for his changeup, which will hold down the fort while he works on the consistency of his breaking balls. The 6'4" righty hasn't quite shown consistent feel to spot his newfound, loud stuff, though he has been a good strikethrower in the past and may just need more time to get used to the mid 90's bullets coming from his right arm. It does take some effort for him to tap that big stuff, leading to reliever risk, and he'll look to the coaching staff in Niceville to help smooth that out a bit. Regardless, I expect him to carve up Florda JuCo hitters next spring and rank among the national leaders in strikeouts at that level. If he doesn't quite get things where he wants by the 2022 draft, he can always go back for another year or transfer to another Division I program. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for his class.
11. RHP Eric Hammond, Southern California (Keller HS, TX). 2021 rank: #130.
UCLA is bringing in the best recruiting class in the country, but their cross town rivals did land Eric Hammond, who has a chance to be a first rounder in 2024. Hammond, a Texan with strong familial ties to California, already sits in the low 90's and can get up to 95-96 with plenty more projection in the tank. He also throws a slider, curve, and changeup, all of which are trending upwards and flash above average and should give him a complete arsenal to use in Los Angeles. He's generally around the zone, though command is going to be a focus point in his development over the next few years. The Dallas-Fort Worth product has a very slow, deliberate start to his delivery, but rushes through his arm stroke and finish which can affect his ability to repeat his release point. Cleaning that up is likely all that stands between Hammond and starting in pro ball. The 6'4" righty offers a ton of projection and should continue to add power to his stuff, and he has a chance to be one of the best pitchers on the West Coast over the next few seasons if he develops like he's expected to. USC missed out on Marcelo Mayer, who in my opinion was the best high schooler in the entire draft class by a fair margin, but should still be happy that they landed their future Friday night starter.
12. LHP Carter Holton, Vanderbilt (Benedictine Military HS, GA). 2021 rank: #135.
Ask any hitter on the showcase circuit last year, and they'll tell you Carter Holton was one of the toughest at bats they had. He'll head to Vanderbilt with one less arm to compete with now that James Peyton Smith is going the JuCo route, but no matter what the situation is in Nashville, it's always tough to find innings on that staff. Holton should be up for the task rather quickly as he shows strong feel for pitching and shouldn't have too steep of a transition to facing SEC lineups, though he still should get better and better during his time there. For now, he sits in the low 90's but can get up to 96 with his fastball, adding a sweepy curve and slider that can blend into each other and a very solid changeup that plays well off the rest of his arsenal. He comes in with some crossfire action that puts tough angle on the ball and adds perceived sweep to his breaking balls, but still fills up the strike zone more often than not. 5'11" lefty lacks projection and probably won't add a ton more velocity, but as Tim Corbin and co. help him get a bit more consistent in repeating his delivery and perhaps tighten up his breaking balls a bit, we could have a Friday night man by 2024, which is no small task at Vanderbilt. He mixes his pitches extremely well and improving his command from average to above average, which I see as highly likely, will make him exactly the kind of pitcher that carves up SEC lineups as if he's still in high school. The Savannah native's size probably makes it less likely he emerges as a first round pick, but he has a very good shot at working his way into the second round range.
Others:
#141 RHP Brandon Neely, Florida (Spruce Creek HS, FL)
#157 RHP Cale Lansville, Louisiana State (Thunder Ridge HS, CO)
#164 LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida (Plant HS, FL)
#171 RHP Will Koger, Louisville (Bardstown HS, KY)
#178 RHP Max Debiec, Washington (O'Dea Catholic HS, WA)
#182 RHP Luke Holman, Alabama (Wilson HS, PA)
#187 LHP Pierce Coppola, Florida (Verona HS, NJ)
#190 RHP Roman Kimball, Notre Dame (P27 Academy, SC)
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