2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the Big 12

2021 draftees: 38. Top school: Texas Tech (9)
2021 preseason writeup (published 9/16/2020)

Top draftees:
1-21, Cubs: LHP Jordan Wicks (Kansas State)
CBA-32, Tigers: RHP Ty Madden (Texas)
2-51, Brewers: LHP Russell Smith (Texas Christian)
4-126, Braves: SS Cal Conley (Texas Tech)
4-128, Twins: 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Oklahoma State)
4-129, Padres: LHP Jackson Wolf (West Virginia)
4-130, Rays: OF Dru Baker (Texas Tech)

A lot is going to change in the Big 12 over the next few seasons, with flagship programs Texas and Oklahoma preparing to leave for the SEC and Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and Brigham Young possibly joining in their place. Last year, I had to dig deep into the conference to find its top draft prospects, but this year is looking to be much stronger right away. Last year the conference was more about depth than star power, with just three players going in the top three and a half rounds, but then we saw four players go in a span of five picks at the back of the fourth round and ultimately every team except Kansas had multiple picks. This year already has three players squarely in the first round conversation alone and quite a few more in that second to third round conversation, so we could see heavy cross checker traffic in the region. The state of Oklahoma dominates this list with six out of ten names, and it's also a list full of two-way names, so that's something to be excited about if you're interested in it. The top ten prospects in the Big 12 heading into the season are:

1. 2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 200 lbs. Born 10/4/2000. Hometown: San Antonio, TX.
2021: 21 HR, .337/.462/.697, 4 SB, 45/49 K/BB in 56 games.
The younger brother of Rangers prospect and 2018 eighth overall pick Josh Jung, Jace may actually manage to beat his brother's draft position. He absolutely raked from start to finish in 2021, pushing his batting average above .400 as late as April 14th, at one point posting two three-homer games in a six game span against Kansas State and TCU, and another time going deep in five out of six games against Oklahoma and Kansas. He's the best hitter in the Big 12 and possibly the nation, and a firm candidate to win the Golden Spikes Award in 2022. At six feet tall, he's not huge, but he packs a ton of strength into that frame that gives him plus raw power. He gets to that power very consistently in games with a fairly unique setup, holding his hands higher than most and level with his back shoulder while cocking the bat back a bit towards the backstop. While most players eventually end up in that position after their load, Jung is already ready to go before the pitch is thrown and has very little wasted movement in his swing. Combine that with a patient approach, and you have a guy who not only squares the ball up extremely consistently, but who is simply on base all the time. If we were to nitpick anything about his offensive game, it's that he swings and misses a tad more than you'd like for a potential top ten pick, but that really is nitpicking and he walks so much and hits for so much power that it's really only a question at the very top of the draft. The defensive profile isn't as exciting, as he's manned second base for Texas Tech thus far and profiles either there or at third base in the long run, depending on which part of his game (range or arm strength) a team wants to stretch from his average tool set. Regardless, we have a hitter who profiles for as many as 25-30 home runs a year with high on-base percentages, a true middle of the lineup profile no matter where he ends up defensively. That has a chance to land him in a very similar range to his brother four years prior.

2. OF Jared McKenzie, Baylor.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6', 175 lbs. Born 5/16/2001. Hometown: Round Rock, TX.
2021: 10 HR, .383/.453/.626, 3 SB, 35/14 K/BB in 51 games.

Jared McKenzie might not quite have Jace Jung's power, but otherwise he's right there. After ripping .406/.453/.449 in his shortened freshman season a year ago, he followed that up with a .383/.453/.626 line this year and has proven to be arguably the toughest out in the entire conference. However, his stock dipped a little bit with a mediocre run through the Cape Cod League (.225/.316/.245, 31% K rate), so he goes into 2022 with a little something to prove. There are no questions about McKenzie's hit tool, with exceptional feel for the barrel that allows him to spray line drives around the field and run into some solid power to his pull side, and a .626 slugging percentage in 2021 was not too shabby for a contact hitter. He hits from a wide base that gives him nice leverage and makes it easier to use the whole field, maximizing his power output despite not being overly physical at a skinny six feet tall. The power did not show up at all with wood bats over the summer, with just two extra base hits (both doubles) in thirty games, so given that he'll be using a metal bat all spring, that may continue to be a question right up to the draft. It looks like a back of the first round/comp round profile for now, with a chance to hit his way firmly into it if he comes back out with the low strikeout rates he showed in 2021 (14.2%), and he currently projects for perhaps 15-20 home runs per season and high on-base percentages. The Austin-area native has some speed but isn't a burner, with a good chance he'll move off center field, perhaps to left. That would put some pressure on his bat and he'll want to show he can hit at the top of the lineup rather than the bottom.

3. 3B Peyton Graham, Oklahoma.

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 170 lbs. Born 1/26/2001. Hometown: Waxahachie, TX.
2021: 11 HR, .288/.400/.502, 7 SB, 58/30 K/BB in 53 games.

This profile reminds me a bit of 2021 A's second rounder Zack Gelof for those who followed the 2021 draft. Like Jared McKenzie, Peyton Graham exploded onto the scene with a strong shortened freshman season in 2020 (.358/.457/.612), though he's taken a minor step back since then. Graham has the potential for above average or even plus raw power eventually in his extremely projectable 6'4" frame, and he has begun to tap it in games on a fairly regular basis. He's a patient hitter that knows how to work counts and get his pitch, though he can get into some trouble in deep counts and struck out in 22.7% of his plate appearances in 2021, which is high but still within reason. Like Gelof, Graham will head into his junior season looking for a way to put his power projection together with his plate discipline and come out an all-around force, but for now, it's still a very nice all-around package. Take his defense, where he shows great range and plenty enough arm strength to be an asset at third base, even showing well at shortstop at times, and you have a profile that does a lot right and not much wrong. It will be up to the Waxahachie product to show in 2022 that he can be a true impact player rather than a "jack of all trades, master of none" and work his way into the first round. For now, he's probably more of a comp round/second round type, but there undoubtedly are already teams in love with the skill set who would jump at him in the back of the first. It's a 20 home run, solid on-base percentage projection with a chance for more.

4. RHP Bryce Osmond, Oklahoma State.

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 180 lbs. Born 9/5/2000. Hometown: Jenks, OK.
2021: 2-5, 7.42 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 67/33 K/BB in 57 innings.

Bryce Osmond was a highly regarded prospect in the 2019 draft, earning second round grades from many evaluators and landing at #53 on my board. Instead, he opted to head west to Stillwater, where his performance has been extremely uneven but he has shown just enough to keep scouts coming back, waiting for that breakout. Osmond allowed at least three earned runs in ten of his thirteen appearances last spring and was knocked around for seven against Oklahoma at one point, but he came back looking better in the Cape Cod League over the summer and showed a very respectable 4.21 ERA and 26/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings. The Tulsa-area product brings a low to mid 90's fastball that is regularly up to 96, adding a slider that flashes plus when it's on as well as a more average curveball and changeup. He has an athletic, projectable 6'3" frame and even earned some scouting interest out of high school with his bat, so when you combine that with at times electric stuff, there's plenty of upside. For now, consistency is the big item on the to do list for Osmond. His slider can flatten out at times and his other secondary stuff isn't always there, and while his delivery is pretty simple, he still struggles to repeat it and can lose the strike zone. We're talking fringe-average control and below average command for now. It seems like he could be one or two adjustments away from breaking out as one of the top arms in the conference, and his solid run through the Cape Cod League could be a sign that it's coming. He has #2 starter upside if so.

5. RHP Victor Mederos, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 6/8/2001. Hometown: Miami, FL.
2021 (at Miami): 2-3, 5.11 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 35/18 K/BB in 44 innings.
Victor Mederos ranked as my third best pitching prospect to reach campus a year ago (#57 on my overall draft board), part of an incredible Miami recruiting class that could produce multiple early round picks. However, after an up and down freshman season, he transferred across the country to Oklahoma State, where he looks to help anchor what could be the best pitching staff in the Big 12. Mederos has huge stuff, led by a mid 90's fastball that has reached as high as 99 with a full arsenal to back it up. His downer curve, harder slider, and changeup all flash at least above average if not plus, though for now it's all relatively inconsistent. He has more feel for the breaking balls than his changeup, but they can blend into each other at times and get hit hard. I've seen Mederos listed at 6'4" back in high school, 6'3" at Miami, and now 6'2" at Oklahoma State, so I'm not actually sure how tall he is, but he's a big dude nonetheless that extends well down the mound and gets on hitters quick. The Miami native rotates his big body hard in his delivery and can be prone to overthrowing, at which times he can lose the strike zone, but for the most part he was around the zone in 2021. As he gets more comfortable with his huge stuff, he should be able to provide average command as he repeats his delivery more consistently and trusts his arm strength. We could definitely use fewer balls over the heart of the plate, and given how hittable he was at times in 2021, there are some minor concerns that his stuff could play too true. Perhaps a change of scenery from Miami to Stillwater will be just what he needs to go from seeing his stuff play down to playing up, and it's also important to note that he was just a true freshman last spring, even if he's old for his class and turned 20 in June.

6. SS Trey Faltine, Texas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 1/8/2001. Hometown: Richmond, TX.

2021: 5 HR, .249/.374/.401, 7 SB, 72/35 K/BB in 66 games.

Trey Faltine was an under the radar but very interesting high school product out of the Houston area in 2019, coming in at #85 on my board, showing off supreme athleticism that made him an enticing prospect as a pitcher, infielder, or outfielder. After hovering around 90 with his fastball while showing great feel for his secondary pitches and a repeatable delivery, he's exclusively played shortstop in Austin and looks to stick with that going forward.  He really stands out for his glove, with tremendous range and a strong arm making him a lock to stick at shortstop and provide plenty of value on defense alone. The bat is a bit behind the glove, but there's still plenty to like. He's a moderately disciplined hitter, showing a clean right handed swing that helps him make hard contact to all fields while drawing his fair share of walks, but there's more to be unlocked. Faltine can produce surprisingly high exit velocities when he really connects, but to this point that power hasn't shown up much in games with just eight home runs over 108 games between his time at Texas and in the Cape Cod League. There is some question as to whether he'll ever be able to tap that power consistently in games given his already fringe-average hit tool, but even a moderate step forward in 2022 would really help his draft stock given his defensive profile. It's a utility floor with a chance for more, reminding me a bit of 2021 Reds third rounder Jose Torres or 2020 Royals comp pick Nick Loftin.

7. RHP/SS Cade Horton, Oklahoma.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 210 lbs. Born 8/20/2001. Hometown: Norman, OK.

2021: Did not play.

Both Bryce Osmond and Trey Faltine showed off serious two-way ability in high school, but both have stuck to one or the other in college. That makes Cade Horton the top official two-way prospect in the conference, despite the fact that he hasn't actually seen the field in Norman after missing 2021 with Tommy John surgery. A mid-August birthday makes him old for his class and he'll therefore be eligible as a redshirt freshman in 2022, so for now we'll just have to project based on his high school profile. Most prefer the Norman product as a pitcher, as do I after ranking him the fifth best incoming pitching prospect a year ago and the 70th overall prospect in the draft. In high school, he sat in the low 90's with his fastball and could reach back for up to 95, adding a good slider and an average changeup that showed promise. His main goal upon reaching campus was going to be getting stronger, as he didn't always hold his fastball velocity deep into games and his slider needed to add power to become a true plus pitch. He's a very good athlete that also originally intended to play quarterback for the national powerhouse Oklahoma football team, though he wasn't on the roster as a freshman and his surgery obviously knocked him out for the 2021 season. And I don't think he was going to see the field anyways with Spencer Rattler locking down the starting job. That football athleticism helps him pump consistent strikes and repeat his delivery well, and now that he's presumably focusing solely on baseball, I'm excited to see how he comes out throwing once healthy in 2022, where he has a chance to step into the Sooners' weekend rotation. At the plate, Horton shows above average raw power from the right side, though his swing can get long and he has shown swing and miss issues in the past. We obviously have that aforementioned athleticism, which combined with his strong arm makes him a good bet to stick at shortstop long term. He'll have a lot riding in this spring but if he doesn't like his offers come draft day, he'll have plenty of leverage as a 20 year old with three years of eligibility remaining. Because of that, expect him to be an expensive sign.

8. RHP/1B Justin Campbell, Oklahoma State.

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'7", 220 lbs. Born 2/14/2001. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA.
2021: 7-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 102/27 K/BB in 84 innings.

2021: 1 HR, .269/.398/.388, 0 SB, 20/14 K/BB in 42 games.

Justin Campbell brings us another two-way player, though aside from his raw power and solid plate discipline, I don't see much reason to keep him off the mound. He was Oklahoma State's most consistent pitcher this past spring, going at least five innings in twelve of fourteen starts and allowing zero or one earned run nine times. The highlight of his season came on May 8th, when he no-hit the Kansas Jayhawks on just 99 pitches while walking one and striking out eleven. The towering 6'7" righty doesn't have overpowering stuff, but really knows how to pitch and screams innings-eating #4 starter. The fastball sits around 90, reaching a few ticks above that at his best, coming from an extremely high release point that makes the ball look like it's coming down from the sky. That kind of approach angle might have made him a relatively early pick even without big velocity ten years ago, though today it's not as in style. He drops in a big curveball with a ton of depth as well as an above average changeup. Campbell repeats his delivery extremely well and throws everything, including the offspeed stuff, for strikes, screaming dependability with a more old school profile. If he adds a tick of velocity in 2022, which could happen especially if he gives up hitting, it looks like a pretty safe second round profile. Now with the current velocity, he probably fits better in the third.

9. SS/RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 7/24/2001. Hometown: Willow Springs, NC.
2021: 8 HR, .263/.410/.526, 1 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 39 games.

2021: 0-1, 18.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 3/4 K/BB in 2 innings.

Make that a third consecutive true two way player. In addition to playing both ways, Nolan McLean is like Cade Horton in that he was actually recruited to play quarterback at Oklahoma State as well, though while he was listed on the 2020 football roster, he didn't get into any games and is not on the 2021 roster. McLean was obviously a very highly regarded baseball recruit, having ranked #145 on my 2020 board, and is now eligible as a sophomore due to being old for the class. A well known pitching prospect in high school, he sits in the low 90's and adds a big curveball but has not pitched much yet for the Cowboys, earning just two innings last spring and not pitching at all in the Cape Cod League. With his frame and athleticism, he could continue to trend upwards and has a chance to start if he improves his changeup, but I see more upside at the plate. While there are some holes in the profile, he overall had a strong freshman season in Stillwater and followed it up by hitting .261/.469/.522 in eight games on the Cape, continuing the upward trend of his bat that began in earnest during his senior year of high school. McLean reminds me a bit of incoming UCLA freshman Malakhi Knight as a hitter, employing an upright stance and swing and generating leverage through his strength and long levers. It's a power over hit profile for now, with the Raleigh-area product projecting for above average power from that big 6'3" frame, and he does have a patient approach at the plate that enables him to draw plenty of walks. For now, there's some swing and miss in his game and his right handed swing can get grooved at times, and until he cuts down that strikeout rate (28.9% as a freshman, 37.5% on the Cape), he projects more in the middle of day two rather than in the top couple of rounds. The approach is there, so really we just need better adjustability and pure bat to ball skills in the swing. He's an exceptional athlete with a strong arm, though the jury is still out as to whether he'll stick at shortstop.

10. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 2/21/2000. Hometown: Willis, TX.

2021: 4-1, 3.06 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 36/9 K/BB in 35.1 innings.

Quite a few well-known, 2021 draft-eligible names are returning to the Big 12, including top-200 prospects Austin Krob (#186, TCU), Pete Hansen (#194, Texas), and Ivan Melendez (#196, Texas), but Brandon Birdsell (#184) is the best of the group and in my opinion and was the only one to crack this list. Also a well-known prospect out of San Jacinto JC in 2020, Birdsell will be a household name for Texas area scouts for a third straight season and hopefully this will be the one where he gets his money. He has a big right arm that has produced higher and higher velocities, and in 2021 he touched as high as 99 while sitting in the low to mid 90's. His power upper 80's slider is an out pitch that projects as an above average offering, while his changeup and newer curveball are both solid pitches in their own right that help fill out his arsenal. He does a good job of repeating his short arm delivery and throws strikes, giving him every chance to start at the next level. Really, the only question mark is health, and unfortunately it's a big one. Birdsell went down in April last spring with a shoulder injury and hasn't pitched since, and if there's any body part that still scares away scouts in an age of rapidly advancing sports medicine, it's the shoulder. He will have to prove that he is healthy in 2022 to even have a shot at the draft's second day, and in order to go in the top five rounds or so and project as a starter, he'll likely need at least 60-70 innings in the Red Raider rotation. If he does come back healthy and pitch to his ability, we have a serious #3 or #4 starter on our hands, and even if he can't hold up under a starter's workload, the fastball and slider make him a very solid relief option.