2022 MLB Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

Full list of draftees

I really like what the Reds did here. They had a ton of draft capital with five of the first 94 picks, and they used it. They didn't expect top ten talent Cam Collier to fall into their lap at pick #18, so they changed their entire draft strategy to make it work. After signing Collier for well over a million dollars above slot value, they went below slot value for each of the next eleven picks to make up for it, and also counted each many picks' $2,500 signing contingency bonus (which comes in addition to the draft bonus and does not count against the pool) as part of the bonus, saving a few extra pennies here and there. They drafted some very interesting bats early on (though I thought Justin Boyd was the one questionable pick here), then went for stuff above all else with picks like Bryce Hubbart, Kenya Huggins, Zach Maxwell, and Ben Brutti. They actually spent much of the latter portion of the draft on arms, drafting twelve pitchers with their final thirteen picks, with the lone position player in that range, Mason Neville, not even signing.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-18: 3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC. My rank: #6.
Slot value: $3.66 million. Signing bonus: $5 million ($1.34 million above slot value).
If you told Reds general manager Nick Krall in April that he would be getting Cam Collier in the first round, he would likely have been happy to hear that. If you told him the day before the draft that he would be getting Collier, he would have probably laughed in your face, as multiple teams throughout the top ten picks were rumored to be very in on the young hitter. As it went, those clubs went different directions, and soon signability pushed him to the Reds with the 18th pick. They gave him roughly the slot value for the tenth overall pick, more than a million above their own slot value, to sign him away from a Louisville commitment. So who is this kid that Cincinnati was happy to upend its draft strategy over? Cam Collier was actually supposed to be a junior in high school, but he earned his GED and graduated not one, but two years early from Mount Paran Christian Academy in the Atlanta area to attend Chipola Junior College, much like Bryce Harper more than a decade earlier. Despite being just 17 years old and facing kids who were mostly 19-21 years old, Collier more than held his own by slashing .333/.419/.537 with eight home runs and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He then went to the Cape Cod League and further impressed evaluators by looking right at home against the best 19-21 year olds in the country. This is all because, year of age for year of age, he is probably the most advanced amateur hitter in the country. He takes extremely professional at bats, controlling the strike zone with ease against much older pitching with excellent pitch recognition and feel for the barrel. Collier shows off above average raw power from the left side of the plate, a product of a sturdy, mature 6'2" frame and a sweet, loose, simple swing. He finds the barrel very consistently and sprays deep line drives to all fields, and in pro ball could profile for 20-25 home runs a year with on-base percentages approaching .400. While he probably won't win any Gold Gloves, he is a very capable defender at third base with solid actions around the bag and enough arm strength to stick there. The Reds of course are buying the bat, and if anybody in this class could reach the majors as a teenager, it will probably be Collier. Teenager in this case gives him until the end of the 2024 season, so he would have 2023-2024 to rise through the ranks and make it happen.

1C-32: 3B Sal Stewart, Westminster Christian HS [FL]. My rank: #65.
Slot value: $2.37 million. Signing bonus: $2.1 million ($275,500 below slot value).
Sal Stewart was rumored to be one of the toughest signs in the draft with an extremely firm commitment to Vanderbilt in his pocket, and it took the Reds drafting him about a full round ahead of where he was projected to stop that from happening. If you want a comp, then you'll really like this one if you follow college baseball: Tommy White. Last year, it seems like evaluators (myself included) slept on White a little bit out at IMG Academy because he was a right handed hitting likely first baseman with body concerns, and he made us all regret it by blasting 27 home runs as a true freshman this year. The Reds front office likely saw what White was doing in Raleigh, looked at Stewart, and said "nah, we're not letting that happen again." Also a bigger bodied right handed hitting high school first baseman, Stewart has a similarly impressive track record of hitting and could give the Reds a true middle of the order bat. He's a very disciplined hitter that has been seen a lot on the showcase circuit and has performed well throughout, but he stands out for his plus raw power from a compact uppercut. He's big and strong at a listed 6'3", 215 pounds, and he should only get stronger as he matures. At this point, he's such a natural hitter that he can get away with letting his mechanics get out of whack, and he's strong enough to still do damage even when he's lunging forward or losing the connection between his upper and lower body. That should be a relatively easy fix for the player development program, and Stewart ultimately has a chance to club 30+ home runs a year with good on-base percentages if everything breaks right. Drafted as a third baseman, the Miami native will likely move to first base in pro ball with clunky actions around the bag and below average speed. If you want another comp, Pete Alonso makes sense as well.

2-55: C Logan Tanner, Mississippi State. My rank: #73.
Slot value: $1.37 million. Signing bonus: $1.03 million ($346,500 below slot value).
The Reds draft catchers like clockwork, and Logan Tanner makes it eight drafts in a row where they took one in the first seven rounds going back to Tyler Stephenson in 2015. Tanner was right up there with Kevin Parada and Daniel Susac at the top of a deep college catching class heading into the spring, and even though a disappointing season (.285/.387/.425, 7 HR, 45/32 K/BB in 55 games) dropped him out of the first round, there is still a lot to like. The southern Mississippi native is one of the best defensive catchers in the country, showing great agility back there that helps him block baseballs well, but he stands out most for his arm. It's a plus-plus cannon that not only nabs base stealers on the routine throws, but also works from multiple angles a lot like Patrick Mahomes. Check out this throw from Mississippi State's 2021 National Championship run. Usually, you're going to have to settle for a light hitter if you want defense like that, but Tanner can swing it. He takes very good at bats, with a simple right handed swing that produces high exit velocities and potentially above average power. However, his bat to ball skills are a bit behind his pitch recognition and he doesn't have great feel for the barrel just yet, which led to an overall lack of impact in 2022, but because he understands the strike zone well he should recover quickly with some pro coaching. Overall, he probably projects for 15-20 home runs a year with solid on-base percentages and great defense at best, a starter's profile if he gets back to his 2021 form.

CBB-73: OF Justin Boyd, Oregon State. My rank: #210.
Slot value: $901,300. Signing bonus: $847,500 ($53,800 below slot value).
The Reds saved a little more money on Justin Boyd, a pick somewhat reminiscent of Justice Thompson a year ago. Boyd did not play in the shortened 2020 season then showed well in a part time role in 2021 before breaking out in 2022, slashing .373/.490/.577 with nine home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 58/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. An on-base machine, he is one of the more patient hitters in this class and draws a ton of walks. Those deep counts do lead to some strikeout concerns, as he has just average bat to ball skills, but it's nothing egregious. He's mostly a gap to gap hitter, drilling balls to all fields and letting his plus speed do the work, and while he can turn on one for a home run here and there, I don't expect more than 10-15 home runs per season here at peak. The Denver-area product can play all three outfield positions well with his speed and a good arm, to me giving this a very solid fourth outfield profile with a chance for more if he can tap some power while keeping his strikeouts down.

3-94: LHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State. My rank: #64.
Slot value: $649,900. Signing bonus: $522,500 ($127,400 below slot value).
I really like this pick for the Reds, and I think it could turn out to provide the best value of their whole draft. Bryce Hubbart threw well as a sophomore at Florida State in 2021 but broke out in the Cape Cod League last summer, where he posted a 0.87 ERA and a 45/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 innings. Those Cape numbers become even more impressive when you find out that all three earned runs that Hubbart allowed came one one swing, a three run Braylen Wimmer (Phillies, 18th round) home run in the third inning of his very first start – from there, he closed out the season with 28.2 consecutive shutout innings (aside from one unearned run). His 2022 was a bit more up and down, beginning with dominant outings against James Madison, Samford, and California and ultimately ending up with a 3.32 ERA and a 96/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings. Hubbart really interests me as a pitcher. His fastball velocity fluctuates, getting as high as the mid 90's on the Cape but also dipping into the upper 80's at times with Florida State, typically settling in the 90-92 range. The pitch plays like an invisiball, though, with sneaky riding action that misses bats and confounds hitters. That means even when he's 89-91, he can get consistent outs against advanced hitters, and when he's more 92-94, he dominates the elite like we saw on the Cape. He throws both a curveball and a newer slider, both of which flashed plus on the Cape, but they're both inconsistent and he prefers to pitch off his fastball. Hubbart rounds out his arsenal with an average changeup. He has a very skinny 6'1" frame and an uptempo delivery, but to this point he has shown that he can hold up just fine in the rotation. In order to take the mound every fifth day in the big leagues, he'll have to get more consistent with both his velocity and his offspeed stuff, and while his command has steadily improved, it's still fringe-average and will need some fine tuning in pro ball. The Orlando-area native really understands the analytical side of pitching and will take well to the Reds' player development program, and with a June birthday, he's on the younger side for a college junior. I think the ceiling is huge here if the Reds can get him back to where he was on the Cape, when he looked like an easy first round pick.

4-123: RHP Kenya Huggins, Chipola JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $488,300. Signing bonus: $407,500 ($80,800 below slot value).
The Reds picked up a power arm in the fourth round, getting Cam Collier's Chipola teammate Kenya Huggins. Huggins earned some draft interest a year ago out of high school in New Orleans, but went the JuCo route and showed well as a freshman in Marianna, posting a 2.96 ERA and a 97/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, getting up to around 96, but the pitch can play a bit straight and stands out more for its velocity than its movement. His best pitch is a mid to upper 80's power slider with late bite ,getting ugly swings and misses especially when he locates it down and away to right handed hitters. There's also a changeup here, and while it needs more refinement, he gets some fade on it and he's just 19. The 6'3" righty is big and physical and will only get stronger, though he carries some relief risk because he doesn't always stay on line in his delivery and has fringy command for now. Huggins will want to iron that out in pro ball while also refining his changeup if he wants to start, and if he can find a way to increase the life on his fastball, he could be a very good one. Otherwise, the fastball/slider combination should play out of the bullpen.

5-153: C Cade Hunter, Virginia Tech. My rank: #79.
Slot value: $364,600. Signing bonus: $362,100 ($2,500 below slot value).
Like I said, the Reds love college catchers who perform in power conferences, so Cade Hunter will join Logan Tanner, Matheu Nelson (Florida State), and Chris Okey (Clemson) as early round picks in the system. Hunter played just 29 games combined in 2020 and 2021 and had just 17 career hits coming into the season, but he was one of the country's better breakout bats in 2022 with a .330/.440/.637 slash line, 17 home runs, and a 59/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games for the surprising Hokies. While Tanner is probably glove-first at this point, Hunter is definitely bat-first, with massive raw power from the left side that produces huge exit velocities. He gets great separation in his swing, throwing the hips while leaving his hands back and creating a rubber band effect to consistently drive the ball with force. The hit tool is a bit behind at this point, as he struggles with breaking stuff to a somewhat concerning level, but he does hammer fastballs at any velocity. He also looked just a little bit lost later on in the season and struck out four times in Virginia Tech's season-ending loss to Oklahoma in the Blacksburg Super Regional (though to be fair, that was a major step in Cade Horton's coming out party, which you'll read about in the Cubs review). Behind the plate, the Philadelphia-area native is extremely athletic and can pop out of the crouch and run with the best of backstops, but his glovework and arm strength are more average and will need some refinement in pro ball. The potential onset of robo umps does help that profile a bit. Overall, I see a potential everyday catcher that can hammer 25+ home runs a year, but he will have to figure something out against quality breaking balls in order to reach that ceiling.

6-183: RHP Zach Maxwell, Georgia Tech. My rank: #103.
Slot value: $279,700. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($77,200 below slot value).
If you like Joe Boyle, who is looking unhittable at High A Dayton right now, then you're going to love Zach Maxwell. Maxwell is a huge, 6'6", 275 pound beast of a man, and he's slowly pulling it together on the mound. After walking 23.9% of his opponents as a freshman in 2020 and 25.6% in 2021, he cut that walk rate to 17.3% in 2022 and that helped him post a 5.26 ERA and an 84/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings this year in a swingman role. The Atlanta-area product sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, touching triple digits with serious life. The pitch has extreme vertical axis and rides a ton, making it jump on hitters even quicker than the already impressive radar gun readings would tell you. His slider is downright ghoulish, with massive spin rates and devastating late bite that makes it one of the best breaking balls in the class. Those two pitches are kind of it for now, as Maxwell doesn't have much of a changeup and he doesn't really need it. Command is obviously the big question, as even though it improved in 2022, it's still well below average as the big guy doesn't always repeat his delivery well and struggles to harness his explosive stuff. He made a few starts this year and actually showed very well in a few of them, but unless he can take massive steps forward with his command and changeup, it's a pure relief profile and I think the Reds will be okay with that. With all of Joe Boyle's success so far, they have a pretty good blueprint for development.

7-213: SS Trey Faltine, Texas. My rank: #202.
Slot value: $219,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($19,000 below slot value).
Trey Faltine earned some top 100 draft interest as a two-way player in high school, but made it to campus at Texas and has been exclusively a position player. He had a breakout year in 2022, slashing .282/.393/.552 with 15 home runs and a 104/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, but those 104 strikeouts were second in college baseball only to Oklahoma State's Nolan McLean at 107. Faltine has an explosive swing from the right side that is capable of producing high exit velocities and above average raw power, but he may have gotten too power conscious in 2022 and that led to an ugly 35.6% strikeout rate. He's a bit passive at the plate and struggled in Big 12 play, so the hit tool is very much in question as he enters pro ball and he'll likely need to trade some power to make enough contact. The Houston-area product is a very good defender at shortstop, with slick actions, good range, and a plus arm that sat around 90 when he pitched in high school. That alone should buy the bat plenty of slack, and given his ability to pummel the baseball, there is some upside. But the swing and miss is very alarming.

11-333: RHP Ben Brutti, South Kingstown HS [RI]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $405,000 ($280,000 against bonus pool).
The Reds only went above slot value once after Cam Collier, but they just could not resist the live armed Ben Brutti. He had very limited track record entering 2022, but exploded onto the scene with a loud spring that sent scouts flocking to southern Rhode Island to see him pitch. Brutti's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, getting up to 96 with hard running and sinking action from a very low three quarters slot. His slider is equally devastating when it's on, showing sharp, late sweeping action in the opposite direction of his fastball, though it's not as consistent. He also throws a solid changeup that plays well off his fastball, but he hasn't needed it so far. The profile is a bit relievery, as Brutti throws with considerable effort, emphasized by sharp stabbing action in the back of his arm stroke and an explosive stride down the mound. The 6'3" righty has to get a little more consistent with his command in addition to his offspeed stuff if he wants to start long term, and he's also extremely old for a high school senior having turned 19 in May. Still, I see a potential impact reliever that could close games if it all breaks right. He had been committed to South Florida.

12-363: RHP Mason Pelio, Boston College. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Mason Pelio is unfortunately an example of a pitcher who has developed in the wrong direction. He was a standout as part of Boston College's rotation as a freshman in 2019, when he posted a 3.62 ERA over thirteen starts, and heading into the 2021 draft cycle he was considered second to third round pick (though I was never that high on him). Unfortunately, his command disappeared that year and he finished with a 6.65 ERA over fourteen starts, so he returned to Chestnut Hill to give it one more go. That did not work out, and he lost innings throughout the year as he finished with a 9.16 ERA and a 21/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.2 innings. Pelio has been into the upper 90's at times, but typically sits in the low 90's with cutting action while flipping over a fringy slider and an above average changeup. He's a big guy at a listed 6'3", 230 pounds, but he's seen his command move backwards from average to fringy to well below average now, causing all of his stuff to play down. Even when he had close to average command, I wanted to see him sharpen up his slider before I fully bought in, which he hasn't done. The San Diego-area native represents a reclamation project for Cincinnati, but the building blocks are there. He has that big strong frame, a ton of arm strength, and an advanced changeup, and he just needs to be put back together. If a change of scenery is just what the doctor ordered, I wouldn't close the book just yet on him becoming a back-end starter.

18-543: OF Mason Neville, Basic HS [NV]. My rank: #133.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
The Reds took a shot at Mason Neville in the 18th round but ultimately could not keep him away from an Arkansas commitment. Neville is a great athlete that shows off a variety of tools, albeit in need of some refinement that he'll get in Fayetteville. His loose left handed swing produces power to all fields when he connects, and at a projectable 6'3", he should grow into even more power in time. He makes good contact but it often comes at the expense of his power, as Neville will often throw the bat head at the ball in order to make contact if he doesn't recognize the pitch right away. The Las Vegas native has big upside at the plate if he can learn himself a bit more as a hitter, and I'll be interested to see how the Arkansas coaching staff goes about that. He's also a plus runner that can play center field, adding to his value.

2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the Big 12

2021 draftees: 38. Top school: Texas Tech (9)
2021 preseason writeup (published 9/16/2020)

Top draftees:
1-21, Cubs: LHP Jordan Wicks (Kansas State)
CBA-32, Tigers: RHP Ty Madden (Texas)
2-51, Brewers: LHP Russell Smith (Texas Christian)
4-126, Braves: SS Cal Conley (Texas Tech)
4-128, Twins: 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Oklahoma State)
4-129, Padres: LHP Jackson Wolf (West Virginia)
4-130, Rays: OF Dru Baker (Texas Tech)

A lot is going to change in the Big 12 over the next few seasons, with flagship programs Texas and Oklahoma preparing to leave for the SEC and Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and Brigham Young possibly joining in their place. Last year, I had to dig deep into the conference to find its top draft prospects, but this year is looking to be much stronger right away. Last year the conference was more about depth than star power, with just three players going in the top three and a half rounds, but then we saw four players go in a span of five picks at the back of the fourth round and ultimately every team except Kansas had multiple picks. This year already has three players squarely in the first round conversation alone and quite a few more in that second to third round conversation, so we could see heavy cross checker traffic in the region. The state of Oklahoma dominates this list with six out of ten names, and it's also a list full of two-way names, so that's something to be excited about if you're interested in it. The top ten prospects in the Big 12 heading into the season are:

1. 2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 200 lbs. Born 10/4/2000. Hometown: San Antonio, TX.
2021: 21 HR, .337/.462/.697, 4 SB, 45/49 K/BB in 56 games.
The younger brother of Rangers prospect and 2018 eighth overall pick Josh Jung, Jace may actually manage to beat his brother's draft position. He absolutely raked from start to finish in 2021, pushing his batting average above .400 as late as April 14th, at one point posting two three-homer games in a six game span against Kansas State and TCU, and another time going deep in five out of six games against Oklahoma and Kansas. He's the best hitter in the Big 12 and possibly the nation, and a firm candidate to win the Golden Spikes Award in 2022. At six feet tall, he's not huge, but he packs a ton of strength into that frame that gives him plus raw power. He gets to that power very consistently in games with a fairly unique setup, holding his hands higher than most and level with his back shoulder while cocking the bat back a bit towards the backstop. While most players eventually end up in that position after their load, Jung is already ready to go before the pitch is thrown and has very little wasted movement in his swing. Combine that with a patient approach, and you have a guy who not only squares the ball up extremely consistently, but who is simply on base all the time. If we were to nitpick anything about his offensive game, it's that he swings and misses a tad more than you'd like for a potential top ten pick, but that really is nitpicking and he walks so much and hits for so much power that it's really only a question at the very top of the draft. The defensive profile isn't as exciting, as he's manned second base for Texas Tech thus far and profiles either there or at third base in the long run, depending on which part of his game (range or arm strength) a team wants to stretch from his average tool set. Regardless, we have a hitter who profiles for as many as 25-30 home runs a year with high on-base percentages, a true middle of the lineup profile no matter where he ends up defensively. That has a chance to land him in a very similar range to his brother four years prior.

2. OF Jared McKenzie, Baylor.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6', 175 lbs. Born 5/16/2001. Hometown: Round Rock, TX.
2021: 10 HR, .383/.453/.626, 3 SB, 35/14 K/BB in 51 games.

Jared McKenzie might not quite have Jace Jung's power, but otherwise he's right there. After ripping .406/.453/.449 in his shortened freshman season a year ago, he followed that up with a .383/.453/.626 line this year and has proven to be arguably the toughest out in the entire conference. However, his stock dipped a little bit with a mediocre run through the Cape Cod League (.225/.316/.245, 31% K rate), so he goes into 2022 with a little something to prove. There are no questions about McKenzie's hit tool, with exceptional feel for the barrel that allows him to spray line drives around the field and run into some solid power to his pull side, and a .626 slugging percentage in 2021 was not too shabby for a contact hitter. He hits from a wide base that gives him nice leverage and makes it easier to use the whole field, maximizing his power output despite not being overly physical at a skinny six feet tall. The power did not show up at all with wood bats over the summer, with just two extra base hits (both doubles) in thirty games, so given that he'll be using a metal bat all spring, that may continue to be a question right up to the draft. It looks like a back of the first round/comp round profile for now, with a chance to hit his way firmly into it if he comes back out with the low strikeout rates he showed in 2021 (14.2%), and he currently projects for perhaps 15-20 home runs per season and high on-base percentages. The Austin-area native has some speed but isn't a burner, with a good chance he'll move off center field, perhaps to left. That would put some pressure on his bat and he'll want to show he can hit at the top of the lineup rather than the bottom.

3. 3B Peyton Graham, Oklahoma.

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 170 lbs. Born 1/26/2001. Hometown: Waxahachie, TX.
2021: 11 HR, .288/.400/.502, 7 SB, 58/30 K/BB in 53 games.

This profile reminds me a bit of 2021 A's second rounder Zack Gelof for those who followed the 2021 draft. Like Jared McKenzie, Peyton Graham exploded onto the scene with a strong shortened freshman season in 2020 (.358/.457/.612), though he's taken a minor step back since then. Graham has the potential for above average or even plus raw power eventually in his extremely projectable 6'4" frame, and he has begun to tap it in games on a fairly regular basis. He's a patient hitter that knows how to work counts and get his pitch, though he can get into some trouble in deep counts and struck out in 22.7% of his plate appearances in 2021, which is high but still within reason. Like Gelof, Graham will head into his junior season looking for a way to put his power projection together with his plate discipline and come out an all-around force, but for now, it's still a very nice all-around package. Take his defense, where he shows great range and plenty enough arm strength to be an asset at third base, even showing well at shortstop at times, and you have a profile that does a lot right and not much wrong. It will be up to the Waxahachie product to show in 2022 that he can be a true impact player rather than a "jack of all trades, master of none" and work his way into the first round. For now, he's probably more of a comp round/second round type, but there undoubtedly are already teams in love with the skill set who would jump at him in the back of the first. It's a 20 home run, solid on-base percentage projection with a chance for more.

4. RHP Bryce Osmond, Oklahoma State.

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 180 lbs. Born 9/5/2000. Hometown: Jenks, OK.
2021: 2-5, 7.42 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 67/33 K/BB in 57 innings.

Bryce Osmond was a highly regarded prospect in the 2019 draft, earning second round grades from many evaluators and landing at #53 on my board. Instead, he opted to head west to Stillwater, where his performance has been extremely uneven but he has shown just enough to keep scouts coming back, waiting for that breakout. Osmond allowed at least three earned runs in ten of his thirteen appearances last spring and was knocked around for seven against Oklahoma at one point, but he came back looking better in the Cape Cod League over the summer and showed a very respectable 4.21 ERA and 26/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings. The Tulsa-area product brings a low to mid 90's fastball that is regularly up to 96, adding a slider that flashes plus when it's on as well as a more average curveball and changeup. He has an athletic, projectable 6'3" frame and even earned some scouting interest out of high school with his bat, so when you combine that with at times electric stuff, there's plenty of upside. For now, consistency is the big item on the to do list for Osmond. His slider can flatten out at times and his other secondary stuff isn't always there, and while his delivery is pretty simple, he still struggles to repeat it and can lose the strike zone. We're talking fringe-average control and below average command for now. It seems like he could be one or two adjustments away from breaking out as one of the top arms in the conference, and his solid run through the Cape Cod League could be a sign that it's coming. He has #2 starter upside if so.

5. RHP Victor Mederos, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 6/8/2001. Hometown: Miami, FL.
2021 (at Miami): 2-3, 5.11 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 35/18 K/BB in 44 innings.
Victor Mederos ranked as my third best pitching prospect to reach campus a year ago (#57 on my overall draft board), part of an incredible Miami recruiting class that could produce multiple early round picks. However, after an up and down freshman season, he transferred across the country to Oklahoma State, where he looks to help anchor what could be the best pitching staff in the Big 12. Mederos has huge stuff, led by a mid 90's fastball that has reached as high as 99 with a full arsenal to back it up. His downer curve, harder slider, and changeup all flash at least above average if not plus, though for now it's all relatively inconsistent. He has more feel for the breaking balls than his changeup, but they can blend into each other at times and get hit hard. I've seen Mederos listed at 6'4" back in high school, 6'3" at Miami, and now 6'2" at Oklahoma State, so I'm not actually sure how tall he is, but he's a big dude nonetheless that extends well down the mound and gets on hitters quick. The Miami native rotates his big body hard in his delivery and can be prone to overthrowing, at which times he can lose the strike zone, but for the most part he was around the zone in 2021. As he gets more comfortable with his huge stuff, he should be able to provide average command as he repeats his delivery more consistently and trusts his arm strength. We could definitely use fewer balls over the heart of the plate, and given how hittable he was at times in 2021, there are some minor concerns that his stuff could play too true. Perhaps a change of scenery from Miami to Stillwater will be just what he needs to go from seeing his stuff play down to playing up, and it's also important to note that he was just a true freshman last spring, even if he's old for his class and turned 20 in June.

6. SS Trey Faltine, Texas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 1/8/2001. Hometown: Richmond, TX.

2021: 5 HR, .249/.374/.401, 7 SB, 72/35 K/BB in 66 games.

Trey Faltine was an under the radar but very interesting high school product out of the Houston area in 2019, coming in at #85 on my board, showing off supreme athleticism that made him an enticing prospect as a pitcher, infielder, or outfielder. After hovering around 90 with his fastball while showing great feel for his secondary pitches and a repeatable delivery, he's exclusively played shortstop in Austin and looks to stick with that going forward.  He really stands out for his glove, with tremendous range and a strong arm making him a lock to stick at shortstop and provide plenty of value on defense alone. The bat is a bit behind the glove, but there's still plenty to like. He's a moderately disciplined hitter, showing a clean right handed swing that helps him make hard contact to all fields while drawing his fair share of walks, but there's more to be unlocked. Faltine can produce surprisingly high exit velocities when he really connects, but to this point that power hasn't shown up much in games with just eight home runs over 108 games between his time at Texas and in the Cape Cod League. There is some question as to whether he'll ever be able to tap that power consistently in games given his already fringe-average hit tool, but even a moderate step forward in 2022 would really help his draft stock given his defensive profile. It's a utility floor with a chance for more, reminding me a bit of 2021 Reds third rounder Jose Torres or 2020 Royals comp pick Nick Loftin.

7. RHP/SS Cade Horton, Oklahoma.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 210 lbs. Born 8/20/2001. Hometown: Norman, OK.

2021: Did not play.

Both Bryce Osmond and Trey Faltine showed off serious two-way ability in high school, but both have stuck to one or the other in college. That makes Cade Horton the top official two-way prospect in the conference, despite the fact that he hasn't actually seen the field in Norman after missing 2021 with Tommy John surgery. A mid-August birthday makes him old for his class and he'll therefore be eligible as a redshirt freshman in 2022, so for now we'll just have to project based on his high school profile. Most prefer the Norman product as a pitcher, as do I after ranking him the fifth best incoming pitching prospect a year ago and the 70th overall prospect in the draft. In high school, he sat in the low 90's with his fastball and could reach back for up to 95, adding a good slider and an average changeup that showed promise. His main goal upon reaching campus was going to be getting stronger, as he didn't always hold his fastball velocity deep into games and his slider needed to add power to become a true plus pitch. He's a very good athlete that also originally intended to play quarterback for the national powerhouse Oklahoma football team, though he wasn't on the roster as a freshman and his surgery obviously knocked him out for the 2021 season. And I don't think he was going to see the field anyways with Spencer Rattler locking down the starting job. That football athleticism helps him pump consistent strikes and repeat his delivery well, and now that he's presumably focusing solely on baseball, I'm excited to see how he comes out throwing once healthy in 2022, where he has a chance to step into the Sooners' weekend rotation. At the plate, Horton shows above average raw power from the right side, though his swing can get long and he has shown swing and miss issues in the past. We obviously have that aforementioned athleticism, which combined with his strong arm makes him a good bet to stick at shortstop long term. He'll have a lot riding in this spring but if he doesn't like his offers come draft day, he'll have plenty of leverage as a 20 year old with three years of eligibility remaining. Because of that, expect him to be an expensive sign.

8. RHP/1B Justin Campbell, Oklahoma State.

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'7", 220 lbs. Born 2/14/2001. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA.
2021: 7-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 102/27 K/BB in 84 innings.

2021: 1 HR, .269/.398/.388, 0 SB, 20/14 K/BB in 42 games.

Justin Campbell brings us another two-way player, though aside from his raw power and solid plate discipline, I don't see much reason to keep him off the mound. He was Oklahoma State's most consistent pitcher this past spring, going at least five innings in twelve of fourteen starts and allowing zero or one earned run nine times. The highlight of his season came on May 8th, when he no-hit the Kansas Jayhawks on just 99 pitches while walking one and striking out eleven. The towering 6'7" righty doesn't have overpowering stuff, but really knows how to pitch and screams innings-eating #4 starter. The fastball sits around 90, reaching a few ticks above that at his best, coming from an extremely high release point that makes the ball look like it's coming down from the sky. That kind of approach angle might have made him a relatively early pick even without big velocity ten years ago, though today it's not as in style. He drops in a big curveball with a ton of depth as well as an above average changeup. Campbell repeats his delivery extremely well and throws everything, including the offspeed stuff, for strikes, screaming dependability with a more old school profile. If he adds a tick of velocity in 2022, which could happen especially if he gives up hitting, it looks like a pretty safe second round profile. Now with the current velocity, he probably fits better in the third.

9. SS/RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 7/24/2001. Hometown: Willow Springs, NC.
2021: 8 HR, .263/.410/.526, 1 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 39 games.

2021: 0-1, 18.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 3/4 K/BB in 2 innings.

Make that a third consecutive true two way player. In addition to playing both ways, Nolan McLean is like Cade Horton in that he was actually recruited to play quarterback at Oklahoma State as well, though while he was listed on the 2020 football roster, he didn't get into any games and is not on the 2021 roster. McLean was obviously a very highly regarded baseball recruit, having ranked #145 on my 2020 board, and is now eligible as a sophomore due to being old for the class. A well known pitching prospect in high school, he sits in the low 90's and adds a big curveball but has not pitched much yet for the Cowboys, earning just two innings last spring and not pitching at all in the Cape Cod League. With his frame and athleticism, he could continue to trend upwards and has a chance to start if he improves his changeup, but I see more upside at the plate. While there are some holes in the profile, he overall had a strong freshman season in Stillwater and followed it up by hitting .261/.469/.522 in eight games on the Cape, continuing the upward trend of his bat that began in earnest during his senior year of high school. McLean reminds me a bit of incoming UCLA freshman Malakhi Knight as a hitter, employing an upright stance and swing and generating leverage through his strength and long levers. It's a power over hit profile for now, with the Raleigh-area product projecting for above average power from that big 6'3" frame, and he does have a patient approach at the plate that enables him to draw plenty of walks. For now, there's some swing and miss in his game and his right handed swing can get grooved at times, and until he cuts down that strikeout rate (28.9% as a freshman, 37.5% on the Cape), he projects more in the middle of day two rather than in the top couple of rounds. The approach is there, so really we just need better adjustability and pure bat to ball skills in the swing. He's an exceptional athlete with a strong arm, though the jury is still out as to whether he'll stick at shortstop.

10. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 2/21/2000. Hometown: Willis, TX.

2021: 4-1, 3.06 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 36/9 K/BB in 35.1 innings.

Quite a few well-known, 2021 draft-eligible names are returning to the Big 12, including top-200 prospects Austin Krob (#186, TCU), Pete Hansen (#194, Texas), and Ivan Melendez (#196, Texas), but Brandon Birdsell (#184) is the best of the group and in my opinion and was the only one to crack this list. Also a well-known prospect out of San Jacinto JC in 2020, Birdsell will be a household name for Texas area scouts for a third straight season and hopefully this will be the one where he gets his money. He has a big right arm that has produced higher and higher velocities, and in 2021 he touched as high as 99 while sitting in the low to mid 90's. His power upper 80's slider is an out pitch that projects as an above average offering, while his changeup and newer curveball are both solid pitches in their own right that help fill out his arsenal. He does a good job of repeating his short arm delivery and throws strikes, giving him every chance to start at the next level. Really, the only question mark is health, and unfortunately it's a big one. Birdsell went down in April last spring with a shoulder injury and hasn't pitched since, and if there's any body part that still scares away scouts in an age of rapidly advancing sports medicine, it's the shoulder. He will have to prove that he is healthy in 2022 to even have a shot at the draft's second day, and in order to go in the top five rounds or so and project as a starter, he'll likely need at least 60-70 innings in the Red Raider rotation. If he does come back healthy and pitch to his ability, we have a serious #3 or #4 starter on our hands, and even if he can't hold up under a starter's workload, the fastball and slider make him a very solid relief option.

Top 10 Draft Prospects to Reach NCAA - 2020

With all my draft reviews complete and college baseball players beginning to trickle back to campus, let's take a look at the top unsigned 2019 high school draftees who will be making their new head coaches very happy. I wrote on this subject prior to the 2018 season, which included guys like UCLA's Garrett Mitchell (.349/.418/.566), UNC-Wilmington's Greg Jones (.341/.491/.543), Florida's Brady McConnell (.332/.385/.576), Auburn's Tanner Burns (2.82 ERA, 101/23 K/BB), and Texas A&M's Asa Lacy (2.13 ERA, 130/43 K/BB), who were phenomenal in 2019. I didn't write one for the 2019 season, but that list would have included Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker (3.25 ERA, 114/25 K/BB) and Mississippi State's JT Ginn (3.13 ERA, 105/19 K/BB), who have already made huge impacts on their respective programs as freshmen. Quite a few top 2019 high schoolers went unsigned in 2019, so let's see who the top freshman prospects (based on major league projection) will be come next spring.

All draft ranks are based on my 2019 draft rankings, which include both college and high school players and which are intended to project impact at the major league level, not necessarily at the collegiate level.

1. RHP Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt). 2019 draft rank: #31 (#10 High School)
Last year, Vanderbilt landed my #19 draft prospect in Kumar Rocker, who ranked just behind #18 Cole Wilcox (Georgia) as the second best prospect on my list to reach college, but he's certainly surpassed Wilcox now. This year, Vanderbilt will again land a truly elite pitcher in Jack Leiter, the son of former MLB pitcher Al Leiter. However, while Rocker is a big man with a big arm and big stuff, Leiter is a smaller kid with solid stuff who is much more about pitchability than flashiness. Jack, who comes from Northern New Jersey where he was high school teammates with Yankees 2019 first rounder and fellow Vanderbilt commit Anthony Volpe, stands 6'1" and only sits in the low 90's with his fastball, without too much projection for more velocity. He excels everywhere else in his game, as he adds a plus curveball which will be an immediate weapon for retiring SEC hitters, a slider that gets its share of swings and misses, and an advanced changeup for a high school arm. Leiter also commands and mixes everything very well, keeping hitters off balance. Together, Leiter's skill set should help him make an immediate impact and join Vanderbilt's rotation right away, especially after they lost Drake Fellows and Patrick Raby to the draft. However, Leiter is very old for an incoming freshman and turned 19 back in April, so he will be draft eligible in 2021 and may only stay in Nashville for two seasons. Still, Leiter and Rocker will give Vanderbilt a great pair of young arms to watch in that Commodore rotation until they both end up as likely first round picks in 2021.

2. LHP Hunter Barco (Florida). 2019 draft rank: #33 (#13 HS)
Though they lost Riley Greene (#3 HS), the best pure prep hitter in the country, and Matthew Allan (#5 HS), arguably the best prep pitcher in the country, to the Tigers and Mets, respectively, Florida was at least able to land a first round-caliber pitching prospect in Hunter Barco. The Jacksonville native was actually considered an early, early candidate for the 2019 first overall pick during his junior year of high school, but he failed to live up to those expectations during the summer and then this past spring. Still, as a 6'4" lefty who could hit the mid 90's with his fastball, he garnered significant interest and may have gone as high as the first round if his asking price was lower. Barco has been very inconsistent, but when he's at his best, he can sit in the low 90's with his running fastball, add a swing and miss slider, and miss bats with a good splitter. Add in his projectable frame, and he could be sitting in the mid 90's by the time the 2022 draft rolls around. However, with his low three quarters arm slot, he often loses his mechanics, which can cause his secondary pitches to flatten out and also impact his command. Barco's impact might not be as immediate as Leiter's, but with some coaching from the program which has produced a ton of top pitching prospects as of late (including Brady Singer, A.J. Puk, Alex Faedo, Logan Shore, and Shaun Anderson), he could have a higher ceiling.

3. OF Maurice Hampton (Louisiana State). 2019 draft rank: #39 (#15 HS)
Head baseball coach Paul Mainieri will be very happy to see Maurice Hampton on campus, but head football coach Ed Orgeron might be just as excited. The Memphis kid is a legitimate two-sport star who will play both sports in Baton Rouge, manning the outfield on the baseball diamond and the cornerback position on the gridiron. As you might expect, he's an exceptional athlete whose speed is currently his best asset but who also has the physical tools to develop into an all-around player. He generates some power from his quick swing, and he did a fairly good job of getting to it consistently in high school. He's also a very good defender who should stick in center field, and because he didn't turn 18 until August, he's very young for an incoming freshman. Hampton's game is raw, and with his attention continuing to be split between two sports, he won't have as much of a chance to grow as a player as maybe some other guys, but LSU cranks out outfielders (see Mikie Mahtook, Andrew Stevenson, Jake Fraley, Greg Deichmann, Antoine Duplantis) and he does have youth on his side. If he ever decides to focus exclusively on baseball, Hampton has five tool upside.

4. SS Brooks Lee (Cal Poly). 2019 draft rank: #41 (#16 HS)
The top three prospects are going to SEC powers Vanderbilt, Florida, and Louisiana State, which isn't all that surprising considering the success those three schools have had. However, our #4 guy will be headed across town from his home in San Luis Obispo to Cal Poly, where he'll play for a familiar head coach – his father Larry. The younger Lee has a very advanced feel for the game and, especially given Cal Poly's status as a mid-major program, should make an immediate impact once he steps on campus. His swing isn't the most mechanically-sound, in fact it's pretty choppy, but he has excellent feel for the barrel and has proven he can catch up to high velocity and quality stuff on the showcase circuit. He's not the fastest kid in the world, but he should be able to post high on-base percentages right away in the Big West and could find himself leading off fairly early on. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but mechanical changes could help him get to it a little bit more. Defensively, he again plays above his tools, making all the plays cleanly at shortstop, and he should stick there throughout his college career. Once he turns pro, he may slide over to second base, but that won't be an issue until he's draft eligible in 2022.

5. RHP Bryce Osmond (Oklahoma State). 2019 rank: #53 (#25 HS)
The top prospect in the state of Oklahoma at either the high school or the college level, Bryce Osmond will make it to campus at Oklahoma State as one of the best recruits they've landed in a while. The Tulsa-area native is an athletic, projectable kid at 6'3" who can sit in the low 90's with his fastball at times while adding a good slider and commanding it fairly well. He's skinny at this point and will need to add some weight through the Cowboys' conditioning program, and that will help him maintain his velocity deeper into his starts. Osmond probably won't light the world on fire as a freshman in 2020, but if he gets more physical out in Stillwater, his quick arm could help him rise to the top of the Oklahoma State rotation and make him an early pick in the 2022 draft.

6. 1B/LHP Spencer Jones (Vanderbilt). 2019 rank: #59 (#27 HS)
Make that two big wins for Vanderbilt's incoming freshman class, as Jack Leiter will be the top incoming freshman (in terms of major league projection) in the country but Spencer Jones might have one of the highest ceilings. The San Diego native had a chance at being picked in the first round this year, but an elbow injury held him out for most of the spring and with his stock slipping, he decided to head across the country for school. Jones is a two-way player who is raw on both sides of the ball but shows tremendous upside with both. At 6'7", he has plenty of room to add good weight, and he's athletic for his size. On the mound, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and shows a good curveball with depth, and he could easily get into the mid 90's once he adds weight and focuses on pitching alone. However, his bat is too good to pass up for now, as he shows plus raw power from the left side and can get to it consistently. He's limited to first base defensively, but with that pitcher's arm, he does provide some positive value there. Jones is all projection at this point and might not play much as a freshman, but Vanderbilt is hoping they have the second incarnation of former Louisville Cardinal and current Tampa Bay Ray Brendan McKay at this point.

7. OF Jerrion Ealy (Ole Miss). 2019 rank: #65 (#29 HS)
This is a similar story to LSU's Maurice Hampton. Not only will Ole Miss head baseball coach Mike Bianco be happy to see Jerrion Ealy on campus this fall, but so will head football coach Matt Luke. Hampton may be the slightly better baseball prospect, but Ealy is actually the better football prospect as a five star running back recruit (topping Hampton's four star rating) who could be NFL bound with some luck. However, we're hear to talk about baseball. Ealy entered the spring a potential first round pick, but a lackluster senior season dropped him to more of a second round projection and he instead will play both sports for the Rebels. He's only 5'10", but as you would expect for a short SEC running back, he's built like a tank and his exceptional speed is his best tool. A good defender in center field, his power is his calling card at the plate despite his size, though he struggled to get to it against mediocre Jackson, Mississippi-area pitching this spring. Ealy's mechanics broke down a bit and he got choppy with his swing a lot, so getting back to himself in the box and adding some loft will do him a lot of good. Focusing on baseball exclusively would help that, but he may never do that.

8. 3B Cade Doughty (Louisiana State). 2019 rank: #81 (#34 HS)
Unlike some of the guys ahead of him on this list, Cade Doughty could produce for LSU on day one. Doughty is an advanced player with good feel for the barrel at the plate, and at 6'1" he should begin to add power as he incorporates loft into his swing more consistently. Together, that makes him an impact hitter, especially at the college level, and that feel for the barrel should make him a productive hitter even if the power doesn't kick in immediately. He's also a good defender over at third base, so he'll provide value on both sides of the ball. The Baton Rouge-area native isn't the type of player that takes off in college and turns himself into a top ten pick, but he's a pretty safe bet to produce at a high level for three years before heading off to the draft in 2022.

9. RHP Brett Thomas (South Carolina). 2019 rank: #84 (#36 HS)
South Carolina lost its top recruit in Tyler Callihan (#14 HS) to the Reds, but they landed the fifth best incoming freshman pitcher in the country in Brett Thomas. The Gamecocks recently produced three top pitchers in Clarke Schmidt (17th overall, Yankees), Wil Crowe (65th, Nationals), and Tyler Johnson (147th, White Sox) in the same 2017 draft, and Thomas will hope to be the next in line. The Atlanta-area kid is already advanced and, assuming health, should slot right into the Gamecocks' rotation immediately. Physically developed at 6'5", he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a hard curve from an overhand delivery, and he commands everything fairly well for a pitcher his age. However, he also missed time this spring with elbow issues, but he proved he was healthy later in the spring and hit the mid 90's with his fastball. Between his size, stuff, and command, he's an ideal pitcher for the SEC, and he'll just have to stay healthy to be a high pick in 2022.

10. UT/RHP Trey Faltine (Texas). 2019 rank: #85 (#37 HS)
The Texas Longhorns have landed perhaps the most versatile player in the incoming freshman class. Not only can he pitch and hit, but he can actually play anywhere on the diamond except for catcher. The Houston-area native, who is also regularly listed as Sammy Faltine, is an athletic 6'3" kid with exceptional feel for the game. At the plate, he has a quick bat and a line drive swing that enables him to spray line drives around the field against quality pitching, and there is some power projection in there once he gets stronger. Defensively, he can handle shortstop, center field, and everything in between, more due to his competency for the game than because of big time tools. This means two things; in college, he should be able to break into the starting lineup pretty quickly due to his advanced bat and his ability to play anywhere, but in pro ball, he might not be quite fast enough for center field or shortstop. Three years of development in Austin could give us a clearer picture. Now on the other side, he's a fine pitcher who should crack the Longhorn starting rotation, if not as a freshman then as a sophomore. He only sits around 90 with his fastball but he commands it well, and he adds three good secondaries in a curve, slider, and changeup, all of which could be above average in time. Three years in Austin will do him good not only to pick a position, but pick whether he wants to pitch or it, and he could take a big step forward from there.

Others: #87 Riley Cornelio (Texas Christian, #38 HS), #89 Chris Newell (Virginia, #39 HS), #94 Will Rigney (Baylor, #40 HS), #101 Jonathan French (Clemson, #42 HS), #110 Hayden Dunhurst (Ole Miss, #44 HS)

2019 Draft Review: Boston Red Sox

First five rounds: Cameron Cannon (2-43), Matthew Lugo (2-69), Ryan Zeferjahn (3-107), Noah Song (4-137), Jaxx Groshans (5-167)
Also notable: Wil Dalton (8-257), Stephen Scott (10-317), Sebastian Keene (11-347), Sammy Faltine (39-1187)

Because of a luxury tax penalty, the Red Sox' first pick (#33) was pushed back ten spots to #43, making them by far the last team to make a selection by far. Once they got a good balance of players from all over the diamond, though they focused more on safe-bet college players than on high-upside high school players. Overall, I think they did a good job and should feel pretty secure in getting at least some future big league talent in this group, and fourth rounder Noah Song and fifth rounder Jaxx Groshans could end up looking like particularly savvy picks if things break right in their development.

2-43: SS Cameron Cannon (Arizona, my rank: 76)
Because of the penalty, the Sox' first pick was actually the second pick of the second round, where they grabbed Arizona infielder Cameron Cannon. Cannon, a Phoenix-area native, has experience at second base, shortstop, and third base and he slashed an impressive .397/.478/.651 with eight home runs and a 29/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games as a junior. At 5'10", he probably won't hit 20 home runs in a season, but his strong plate discipline and ability to make hard contact bode well for him posting high on-base percentages. He won't be a slap hitter, either, as the whip in his swing helps him really drive the ball and adding some loft could get him to 10-15 home runs per season. Defensively, he fits best at second base but could probably handle shortstop in a pinch, and his grinder mentality should help his tools play up. Overall, he projects as a starting second baseman if he can add some power, and if not he should be a very fine utility infielder. Pick value here is $1.73 million but he may require less to sign.

2-69: SS Matthew Lugo (Carlos Beltran Academy [PR], my rank: 46)
Ironically ranked 30 spots higher than Cannon on my list (as well as 41 spots higher on MLB Pipeline and 20 spots higher on Baseball America), Matthew Lugo has a higher ceiling but comes with more risk, as is typical with high school players. Lugo is the top prospect from Puerto Rico this year and while he's been compared to Carlos Correa, I don't think that's accurate. He's a right handed hitter with a good approach to hitting, and he uses that approach to get good pitches to hit with his smooth right handed swing, one which already has some loft in it to generate power. His power is just average for now due to his skinny 6'1" frame, but he has the build and swing to eventually hit 20 home runs annually in a best case scenario to go along with strong on-base percentages. Defensively, he'll probably have to move off shortstop, either to second base or third base. Overall, he projects as a starting infielder who could be a dynamic, although likely not true-impact, threat somewhere just outside the middle of the order. Slot value is just under $929,800, but with a Miami commitment, he may require a hair more than that.

3-107: RHP Ryan Zeferjahn (Kansas, my rank: 57)
This is a good pick in my opinion. Zeferjahn has been well-known among scouts since his high school days in Topeka, where he could have been picked in a similar range, and not much has changed about his profile since then, good or bad. After a mediocre freshman year and an inconsistent sophomore season, Zeferhahn was similarly inconsistent in 2019 but stepped it up just a bit, posting a 3.97 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 107/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings. He's a 6'4" righty that flashes the same great stuff he had as a high schooler, and that enabled him to strike out 14 against a strong Oklahoma State lineup on April 13th. At his best, Zeferjahn throws in the mid 90's and adds a swing and miss slider, but too often his mechanics break down and he struggles to find the strike zone, making him more hittable than he should be. He's clearly talented enough to be a mid-rotation starter if Boston can get his mechanics ironed out, but he runs a significant risk of being demoted to the bullpen, where he should be very effective with his fastball/slider combination. Slot value here is $543,500 and that sounds about right for him, though I'm a scout/analyst and not a reporter.

4-137: RHP Noah Song (Navy, my rank: 64)
I ranked Song 64th, but honestly, that shouldn't mean much because he's probably the most unique player in the draft, or at least finds himself in the most unique situation. Song finished his career as perhaps the greatest pitcher in Navy history and on talent alone, he probably would not have lasted until the Red Sox first pick at #43. Instead, he slid to 137th because he must serve two years in the Navy before pitching in pro ball. Already 22, that means that he will be 24 years old when the Red Sox can first get their hands on him, and only then will he get to begin the often arduous journey through the minors. Still, Song is the complete package as a pitcher. His fantastic senior season for the Midshipmen saw him go 11-1 with a 1.44 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 161/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings, striking out at least eight in all fourteen starts and topping out at sixteen K's against Cornell on March 9th. Beyond the performance, he's a 6'4" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball, a full set of offspeeds led by a swing and miss slider, and solid command that enabled him to carve up the mediocre lineups he faced in the Patriot League. He projects as a very solid mid-rotation starter on talent alone, but it remains to be seen how the Navy commitment affects that. Slot value is $406,000 and he may sign for less.

5-167: C Jaxx Groshans (Kansas, unranked)
Sixty picks after taking Ryan Zeferjahn out of the University of Kansas, the Red Sox went back to Lawrence to grab his battery-mate, Jaxx Groshans. The older brother of 2018 Blue Jays first round pick Jordan Groshans, Jaxx had a breakout year for the Jayhawks by slashing .340/.475/.604 with 12 home runs and a 40/53 strikeout to walk ratio, showing a complete offensive package for this part of the draft. He has power from a quick barrel and has shown plenty of patience to draw walks, and while he does strike out some, it's not enough to cause alarm. Defensively, he is working hard to remain behind the plate, and while he will likely never be better than average back there, he has a real shot at it. If he does, he should be at least an offensive-minded backup if not a starter who can hit 15-20 home runs per season with good enough on-base percentages, though he'll have to really take well to pro pitching for the latter to happen. If he has to move off catcher, the pressure will really be on his bat, though he's fairly young for a college junior and that works in his favor when it comes to future projection. Slot value here is $304,200.

8-257: OF Wil Dalton (Florida, unranked)
Dalton transferred to Florida from Columbia State Community College in Tennessee, then slashed .262/.338/.542 with 19 home runs as a sophomore in 2018, then put up a very different year in 2019. As a junior this year, the Tennessee native slashed .262/.381/.466 with eight home runs and a 40/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, bumping up his on-base percentage while also cutting his strikeout rate – and his power. Dalton is not a contact hitter, so while cutting his strikeout rate to bump that OBP up to .381 may have been nice for the Gators, he'll need to hit for power if he wants to reach his ceiling as a strong fourth outfielder for the Red Sox. Slot value is $159,700.

10-317: OF Stephen Scott (Vanderbilt, unranked)
In the tenth round, the Red Sox grabbed Vanderbilt senior Stephen Scott, who has gotten better and better throughout his time in Nashville. The Raleigh native is at the tail end of a strong senior season for the Commodores in which he has slashed .335/.456/.579 with 11 home runs and a 58/42 strikeout to walk ratio through 60 games, with super regionals still to come. He actually caught for Vanderbilt as a junior (while hitting 15 home runs with a .420 on-base percentage), though he's in the outfield this year and that's where the Red Sox will use him. He's a shorter guy at 5'11" and he comes with some swing and miss questions, but he's patient at the plate and has some loft in his left handed swing which could help him compete with Dalton as a future fourth outfielder in Boston. Slot value is $142,200, but as a senior, he will likely sign for significantly less.

11-347: RHP Sebastian Keene (North Andover HS [MA], unranked)
With separate rules for Day Three selections, the Red Sox took a chance on Sebastian Keene, a high school right hander who grew up less than 30 miles from Fenway Park in North Andover, Massachusetts. After the first couple of rounds, all these projectable high school pitchers can start to run together, especially if you don't see them in person, but Keene fits right into that mold. He's 6'3" but listed at just 170 pounds, currently sitting around 90 with his fastball while adding a pretty decent breaking ball from a crossfire delivery. He's almost entirely projection at this point, but he's very athletic and could develop into a very good pitcher in the Red Sox system if he's signable away from his Northeastern commitment. It will take more than the $125,000 allotted here to sign Keene, but the Red Sox will hope to use their savings on Scott and others to bring him on board.

39-1187: RHP Sammy Faltine (Travis HS [TX], my rank: 85)
Faltine, who I have seen listed as Sammy, Trey, Tre, and Sanson, more than likely won't sign here, but he's one of the most interesting players in the draft. If a super-utility player can play all infield and outfield positions, then Faltine is a mega-utility player. He was drafted as a pitcher, but when he goes on to Texas (assuming the Red Sox don't get him a big time bonus), he'll be a two-way player who can play anywhere on the diamond and who is a legitimate prospect both ways. Faltine is a natural athlete from the Houston area whose exceptional feel for the game helps him effectively handle any position, though he might not be quite fast enough to stick in center field or at shortstop in the long run. At the plate, he has a line drive swing and very good feel for the barrel, though he doesn't presently hit for much power. On the mound, the 6'3" righty sits around 90 with his fastball while showing a full array of secondary pitches, good command, and good arm speed, giving him all the starter traits he needs to stick in the rotation. Giving up pitching might help him add some power and be a dynamic threat at the plate, while giving up hitting should help him bump up his velocity and become a true starting pitching prospect. We'll see how it goes in Austin.

2019 Draft Preview: High School Outfielders

This isn't a particularly deep class of high school outfielders, with the Atlanta area usually sending us a boatload but remaining quiet this year, but once you get past the top two rounds or so, more names do start to appear. Most of the better bats in this high school draft class will be found on the infield (see Bobby Witt, Brett Baty, Rece Hinds, Tyler Callihan), but it's not empty and there certainly are some headliners.

Tier I: Riley Greene, Corbin Carroll
The two headliners in this year's high school outfield class live three thousand miles apart on perfectly opposite corners of the country, and their skill sets might be just as far apart as well. Riley Greene, playing ball in Orlando and committed to Florida, is the best pure bat in the high school class save for Witt. Greene is imposing at the plate at 6'1" and gets to his plus raw power very consistently, making him as safe a bet as any high schooler to hit in pro ball. He has a big swing, but his very good approach at the plate and hand-eye coordination help him keep his swing and miss rate low, and those two traits combined should help him grow into 25-30 home run pop in the majors. Combine that with his projected high on-base percentages, and Greene should be a solid middle of the order hitter down the road. He's just so-so in the outfield, likely ending up in left field, but he won't be a liability and the added pressure on his bat won't be an issue. He'll definitely go in the top ten picks, more than likely in the top six. Seattle native Corbin Carroll is safely behind Greene on most draft boards, but he provides a very different vision of a player. At a listed 5'11" and 160 pounds, he doesn't look like an impact hitter, but he has one of the best hit tools in the country among high schoolers with an exceptional feel for both the barrel and zone that help him get on base consistently even against high-level competition. Carroll does a good job of using his load to gain ground on the ball, allowing him to drive through the ball and giving evaluators hope that he can add power down the road as he fills out. He's a good defender in center field who should be able to stick there, with his plus speed helping him track down balls in the gaps. He looks to go somewhere in the top half of the first round, though closer to the middle than the front.

Tier II: Sammy Siani, Maurice Hampton, Jerrion Ealy, Trejyn Fletcher
If Greene and Carroll were about as different as it gets, then the four players in this tier (save for Siani) are actually pretty similar. Sammy Siani, younger brother of Reds 2018 fourth rounder Mike Siani, plays ball in Philadelphia and offers an interesting tool set. He's just 5'11" but he has a smooth, uppercut swing that could produce close to average power down the road. Despite his power-oriented swing, he actually does a very good job of getting the bat on the ball consistently and catching up to good pitching, so with less of a need to worry about his strikeout rates climbing to high, he can continue focusing on trying to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences. He's pretty good defensively so that's a slight boost, and he has a fairly wide range of outcomes due to his potential power upside. He looks like a second round pick at the moment. Over in Memphis, Maurice Hampton offers some really interesting upside with his intense athleticism (he's committed to LSU to play both baseball and football) and present tools. Hampton has a quick swing and above average raw power, though like most two-sport athletes, he needs to refine his hit tool and learn to translate his batting practice power into game power. He also needs to get a little more patient at the plate, as increasing his walk rate could help him employ that SEC cornerback speed on the bases. Defensively, that speed makes him a solid center fielder, though he's raw there as well. With an August birthday, Hampton is one of the younger players in the class. which will give him some extra time to refine his game if he chooses to give up football. He looks like he could go in the comp round, but signability will make that uncertain. Interestingly, Hampton isn't the only two-way SEC recruit this year, as Jackson, Mississippi's Jerrion Ealy is committed to Ole Miss as a running back. At 5'10" and 190 pounds, he's built like a running back, too, and that athleticism makes him a really interesting baseball prospect. Ealy hits the ball hard and showed impressive feel for the barrel over the summer, but it's been a rough spring as he has shown that he has a long way to go offensively. His mechanics need to be ironed out so that he can smooth out his swing and add loft, and given his mediocre performance this spring, he comes with a lot of risk. He's better defensively than Hampton at this point, showing a better chance to stick in center field, though he's also a full year older with an August birthday. When Hampton turns 18, he'll turn 19 less than three weeks later, and he looks more like a second or third round pick, also clouded by signability concerns. Trejyn Fletcher isn't committed to an SEC school to play football, but it's a good thing we're talking about baseball because Vanderbilt has a spot waiting for him in its dugout for next season. Despite the lack of gridiron skills, Fletcher is just as interesting as Hampton and Ealy because he reclassified from a junior to a senior this year (which would be age-appropriate for him anyways), and oh yeah, he might be the best high school baseball prospect in Maine history. The Portland native is just as raw as you would expect for a kid from what I as a Virginian consider the Arctic, showing a very choppy, short swing that won't work in pro ball. That said, he's extremely athletic and has been rising on draft boards recently, shooting up potentially into the second round, and his solid glove and strong arm will buy the bat some time to develop. He has high upside and a lot of risk, but it looks like he might get drafted early enough for a team to keep him from following the path that infielder Ryan Flaherty paved from Portland to Vanderbilt.

Tier III: Chris Newell, Trey Faltine, Glenallen Hill Jr., Joshua Mears
These four don't offer quite the upside of the previous four, or if they do, they have a bit less of a chance to get there. Chris Newell, like Siani, lives in the Philadelphia area, and he actually has a fairly similar left handed swing to him. However, while Siani is currently hit over power due to his feel for the barrel, Newell is more power over hit and is already driving the ball with more authority than Siani, at least when he gets to it. There is more swing and miss in his game, giving the uppercut less of a chance to work in pro ball, and he has a fairly similar defensive profile to his crosstown Trey Faltine has one of the more interesting profiles among the guys who aren't SEC football players, as he's probably the most versatile player in the entire class. Faltine, from the Houston area, can play any position but catcher and he's also a legitimate pitching prospect, which I'll leave for a later writeup while I throw him in the outfield group for this one. Offensively, he has a great feel for the barrel with a swing that is more geared for contact than for power, and at 6'3", he could add some power down the road. He's not exceptionally fast but he can play any position, using his instincts to perform well anywhere from shortstop to center field. Despite his feel for the game, he overall lacks the current in-game impact of some of the players ahead of him, but once he decides what position he wants to play and gives up pitching (if he ends up as a position player at all), he should be able to channel his focus into becoming a top of the order hitter with high on-base percentages, some power, and average to slightly above average speed. He looks like a third or fourth rounder at first glance but could sneak into the second round. Glenallen Hill Jr. is the son of former big leaguer Glenallen Hill, and the Santa Cruz native has used his big, powerful swing to put himself on the map as a potential power hitter despite standing just 5'9". He's not too much unlike the Rangers' Willie Calhoun in that regard, though he's faster, can switch hit, and is limited to the outfield defensively. Hill's swing is a thing of beauty, but he has struggled with contact at times and because of his size, the power plays closer to average. Those two issues combined make him more of a third or fourth round prospect, though he has some real upside if he can find a way to get to his power consistently and use his speed to play good defense in the outfield. Lastly, Seattle area-native Joshua Mears doesn't quite match his cross-town opponent Corbin Carroll, but he's got some pop coming from a 6'3", 235 pound frame. Combine that with a good swing that generates plenty of whip and loft, and that will get scouts' attention. He has some swing and miss in his game and he's mediocre defensively, but the upside at the plate if he can gain a better approach at the plate will make him a solid pick in the third or fourth rounds.

Others: Hylan Hall, Dasan Brown, James Beard, Hudson Head