Showing posts with label Brady Neal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brady Neal. Show all posts

Saturday, September 19, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

Full list of draftees

The Reds put together a relatively hitter-friendly draft class, especially with three straight college bats to start things off, in an effort to inject some offensive impact into its system. They got things started with one of the most talented players in the entire class in Justin Lebron, whose ceiling rivals any player in this draft, before looking for safer, more well-rounded profiles from there on out. They played their bonus pool relatively straightforwardly, paying up a little bit for Lebron, handing fifth rounder Dylan Bowen a third round bonus to steer him away from Oklahoma State, and going a little over on sophomore two-way player Kenny Ishikawa in the thirteenth with a sixth round bonus. In doing so, they were able to give every player drafted in the first ten rounds at least $147,500, avoiding the $10,000 senior sign that has become all too common in the draft.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-18: SS Justin Lebron, Alabama
Slot value: $4.7 million. Signing bonus: $5 million ($304,500 above slot value).
My rank: #16. MLB Pipeline: #9. ESPN: #8.
Cincinnati is getting a potential superstar in Justin Lebron. He showed up at Alabama and hit .350/.435/.536 as a true freshman, immediately establishing himself as one of the top talents in the 2026 draft. A big sophomore season did little to damper expectations and he entered the spring a potential top five pick, though an up and down junior year quickly turned him into one of the draft's biggest enigmas. Watching him play, the talent is monumental. It's not just athleticism and upside, but a buttery smoothness that pervades his game on both sides of the baseball and the undeniable look of a big league star. When he's at his best, he looks like the best prospect in the entire draft. The sticking point, however, is consistent results. Lebron's numbers dipped slightly to .277/.386/.534 in 2026, including just .229/.328/.413 in 28 conference games, leaving a wide gap between his ceiling and his floor. He effortlessly produces above average power with an explosive right handed swing, helping him reach double digit home run totals in each of his three seasons at Alabama for a total of 45 in 179 games, and it's easy to dream on that power ticking up further as he fills out his athletic 6'2" frame. After chasing at a high rate over his first two seasons, he actually improved his approach a bit in 2026 but his contact rates remained below what you'd look for in a first round bat. He struck out 19.6% of the time on the year and 21.6% of the time in SEC play, neither number alarmingly high but again, a bit above what you'd like to see. The approach comes and goes, so Cincinnati will hope to lock him in with more consistency as he faces better and better pitching. The story is similar on defense. Lebron looks the part of a future Gold Glove defender at shortstop and if you catch him on the right set of a dozen ground balls, that's how you'd project him. He has the quickness, body control, and plus arm strength to make throws from any angle, making for a walking highlight reel type of profile at the next level. Like his offense, consistency is a sticking point. The Miami-area product can try to do too much at times, leading to far more errors than you'd expect from such a talented defender. On top of it all, he is a plus-plus runner who stole 42 bags in 43 tries this spring, good for a wicked 97.7% success rate and making him a menace to opposing defenses. Lebron could become a legitimate star or flare out in the minors depending on how the Reds are able to channel his monumental talent.

2-58: SS Eric Becker, Virginia
Slot value: $1.64 million. Signing bonus: $1.65 million ($12,300 above slot value).
My rank: #50. MLB Pipeline: #41. ESPN: #23.
Despite playing the same position, Eric Becker is the polar opposite prospect from Justin Lebron. The older brother of Mariners prospect Nick Becker, himself selected in almost the exact same spot (#57 in 2025), Eric hit campus at UVA and was an immediate contributor from day one. He hit .366/.459/.637 over 95 games in his first two seasons, cementing himself as one of the most consistent bats in the ACC and positioning himself as a potential first round pick in 2026. Becker hit .317/.427/.533 in what was more of a "good" than a "great" junior year this spring, with some publications (notably ESPN above) holding on to him as a first round prospect but others dropping him to the second round, where he eventually went to the Reds. While Lebron has tools galore and the whole, for now, is less than the sum of his parts, Becker is a high baseball IQ, jack of all trades, master of none type who figures to provide steady performance for Cincinnati. He makes plenty of contact from a simple left handed swing designed to spray line drives around the field, with a conscious plan of attack that helps do damage all around the zone. While he brings prototypical size at 6'3", 190 pounds, his skinny frame doesn't figure to add too much weight and his fringy power appears destined to stay that way. Becker can turn on the ball when he needs to and shows some healthy exit velocity data because he so often makes flush contact on the barrel, helping him project for 10-15 home runs per season in the big leagues. He chases at a high clip and batting average, rather than on-base percentage, will always be his strongest slash leg unless he cuts that down significantly. On the other side of the ball, he is a steady defender who has seen time all over the infield. The New York native should have what it takes to stick at shortstop, which certainly takes pressure off hitting for more power, and can easily fill in with average defense at second or third base. Again the opposite of Lebron, he won't wow with the flashy plays or plus speed but can anchor an infield with his feel for the game.

CBB-70: 1B Mulivai Levu, UCLA
Slot value: $1.22 million. Signing bonus: $1.1 million ($125,600 below slot value).
My rank: #94. MLB Pipeline: #62. ESPN: #100.
Moving off of shortstops, Cincinnati makes it three college bats in a row with UCLA first baseman Mulivai Levu. Like Justin Lebron and Eric Becker, he has been a starter since his freshman year but unlike those two, 2026 was his best. In fact, he improved significantly in each of his three seasons, slashing .291/.355/.455 with six home runs as a freshman, .320/.389/.522 with 12 home runs as sophomore, and finally .340/.441/.622 with 18 home runs as a junior. Levu is a sturdy 6'1" with above average power that he has tapped more and more in games as he has improved his approach. Just as with his slash line and his home run totals, his strikeout rates have dropped significantly each season from 27.3% to 15.3% to 11.1%. While he is still an aggressive hitter, he shows strong bat to ball despite some bat wrap in his right handed swing for possibly the best contact/power combination in this Reds draft class. Levu has played mostly first base thus far and he'll probably stay there long term, he's a much better athlete than he looks as a passionate pickleball and frisbee golf player as well as flame-twirler. Some evaluators projected him to at least be worth a shot at third base, where he has enough arm strength and fringy footwork, but at first base he should be an above average defender overall. The Southern California native has a chance to develop into a 20 homer, high average bat, but he'll need to learn more patience at the plate and clear the high offensive bar for first basemen.

3-94: RHP Ty Horn, Nebraska
Slot value: $833,800. Signing bonus: $647,500 ($186,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #234. ESPN: #138.
Ty Horn seems to be close to putting it all together, but he hasn't quite gotten there. He didn't pitch too much as a freshman, then jumped into the rotation as a sophomore to solid, if unspectacular, results. Expectations were high entering 2026 and he had a few strong starts at the beginning of the season, but his grip began to slip as the season moved on and he spent some time in the Nebraska bullpen. He ultimately set career-bests in ERA (4.03), WHIP (1.23), strikeout rate (24.8%), and walk rate (7.4%) but didn't fully take the step forward scouts had hoped for. Still, the Reds liked the full package and envision that next step coming soon. He shows a low 90's fastball that gets up to 95-96 as a starter or as high as 98 in short stints out of the bullpen. There is a full set of decent secondaries including a slider, cutter, curveball, and changeup. Each has its own unique movement pattern even if none stand out, though his feel to sell his changeup at this age is a nice feather in his cap. Horn doesn't have pinpoint command but throws strikes with his whole arsenal and can pitch deep into games as a starter, though he can get hit hard over the heart of the plate. There is some projection on his 6'2" frame with solid athleticism, and added strength could help him add a few ticks to his fastball or some sharpness to his offspeed stuff that could be a game changer. The Wichita-area native will likely never be an ace, rather profiling as a back-end starter or long reliever. Any step forward in his velocity, offspeed stuff, or in-zone command should get him to that ceiling. He gives Cincinnati a bit of a discount, too, signing for fourth round money here in the third round.

4-122: LHP Ethan Norby, East Carolina
Slot value: $632,500. Signing bonus: $630,000 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #167. ESPN: #93.
In a lot of ways, Ethan Norby is the opposite of Ty Horn. After a successful freshman season as a swingman, he took a step forward as a sophomore in 2025 with an excellent 32.3% strikeout rate but really caught scouts' attention with a nineteen strikeout performance against eventual National Champion Coastal Carolina in just his fourth start of the season. In his draft year in 2026, he showed similar stuff but didn't take the next step, so he finds himself here in the fourth round. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95, not overpowering velocity but enough to get the job done as a lefty. The slider steals the show, diving across the plate as he throws it with conviction and leans on it heavily. He can turn it over into a cutter that plays well off the slider, while the changeup will need some work in pro ball. The 5'10" lefty lacks prototypical size as a starting pitcher, but as he throws from a low arm slot and creates flat angle on his pitches, it creates a unique look especially from the left side. Norby also repeats his crossfire delivery well and controls the strike zone well, lending hope that he can remain a starter despite a very slider-reliant profile. Norby will probably need to find another tick on his fastball and bring his changeup along if he wants to stick in the rotation, but the slider gives him a high ceiling either in a rotation or bullpen role. You might recognize the last name from his older brother, Connor, currently filling in around the infield for the Rockies.

5-154: SS Dylan Bowen, Hanover Central HS [IN]
Slot value: $463,200. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($534,300 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #105. ESPN: #123.
Coming back to the Midwest, Cincinnati made their biggest over-slot splurge on Dylan Bowen, handing him third round money to forgo an Oklahoma State commitment. A product of Northwest Indiana on the outskirts of the Chicago suburbs, Bowen has made a name for himself among Midwest scouts with consistent strong hitting performances everywhere he's gone including this spring back home. He uses a simple right handed setup to see the ball deep and send it back where it's pitched, using the whole field effectively and overall putting together some of the more professional at bats in the region. As the Chicagoland spring warmed up, he also impressed evaluators by coming out a bit more physical and bumping up some of his supplemental tools. Still hit over power, he now profiles as more fringy in that regard as opposed to below average, with a much better shot at reaching double digit home run totals than perhaps a year ago. Bowen is also a plus runner who will certainly make the most of his plethora of line drives by stretching singles into doubles and doubles into a triples, while his speed and advanced glovework make for a strong shortstop projection. It's a pretty complete package so long as the power continues to come along, with the only knock on his profile being his age. Bowen turned 19 back in January, making him the age of a college freshman playing against high schoolers this spring and putting a bit of an asterisk on the "advanced" asterisk of his profile. Still, the Reds are sold that it would stand out even against junior college competition in his age group, seeing him as very strong middle infield depth beyond Justin Lebron and Eric Becker leading off this class.

6-183: RHP Duncan Marsten, Wake Forest
Slot value: $358,900. Signing bonus: $322,500 ($36,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #194. ESPN: #173.
Duncan Marsten brings a much better combination of stuff and track record than you might expect in the sixth round, especially for a slight discount. He turned heads right at the start of his senior year at famed Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles in 2024 by coming out throwing 99 with crisp secondaries, then ultimately settled in a tick below that and found himself projected in roughly the third round range by July. He priced himself out of the draft and instead crossed the country to Wake Forest, where poor command kept him from making too much of an impact as a freshman. He walked 16.7% of his opponents in the Cape Cod League that summer, but showcased loud stuff and came back to Winston-Salem in 2026 with some buzz. Draft-eligible as a sophomore because he graduated high school at 19 years old, Marsten took a step forward as a sophomore but still struggled enough with command to fall back a few rounds from his high school projection. The LA native sits in the mid 90's and still tickles 99 with his explosive fastball, but the rest of his game is yet to catch up. He throws a tight power slider in the upper 80's as his main secondary offering, but doesn't use his curveball or changeup as much. Additionally, while the 6'3" righty creates good extension and a difficult release point that makes the ball jump on hitters even beyond its velocity, he struggles to repeat his delivery and said release point leading to below average control. That is especially apparent with his secondary stuff, leading to him often falling behind in counts and having to come back over the plate with a fastball to get back into control. More advanced hitters will look for that center-cut fastball and feast on it, even at its impressive velocity, so it will be imperative for Marsten to gain more consistent feel for locating that secondary stuff. If Cincinnati is patient and lets him slowly put things together, there is still mid rotation upside, but the more likely outcome is as a fastball/slider reliever who could reach triple digits in short stints.

8-242: C Brady Neal, Alabama
Slot value: $229,700. Signing bonus: $147,500 ($82,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Brady Neal, like Duncan Marsten, has plenty of track record with scouts. He was a famous prep at IMG Academy in Florida, where he reclassified up a year and earned top 100 interest as a 17 year old senior in 2022. Scouts praised his advanced game at such a young age but he made it to campus at LSU, where he earned a part-time role as an 18 year old freshman in 2023. His bat took a step forward in a larger role in 2024, then he transferred to Alabama in 2025 but struggled mightily at the plate as his slash line dropped from .276/.408/.578 as a sophomore to .219/.373/.336 as a junior. Returning to campus for his senior year in 2026, he bounced all the way back for a career-best .316/.429/.541 slash line in a career-high 61 games, re-establishing himself as a legitimate draft prospect. While the Tallahassee native impressed evaluators with his polish four years ago, he's largely the same player today and lacks a standout tool. Undersized at 5'10", he has a strong approach at the plate that has helped him run a .408 on-base percentage over four years, masking fringier pure bat to ball that may be exploited in pro ball. There is some pop in the profile, enough to keep pitchers honest but unlikely to produce high home run totals with wood bats. Neal has been a catcher for most of his college career but ceded most playing time behind the dish to John Lemm in 2026, instead spending much of his time in the outfield where he looked fringy. He'll move back behind the plate in pro ball, where his average defensive skills and solid athleticism should help his bat profile a little better. Though he's a senior sign, he's the age of a college junior and won't turn 22 until the offseason, putting him on a standard development schedule. Neal profiles as a future backup catcher.

17-512: OF Jack Lausch, Northwestern
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
This is a fun one. Jack Lausch was a superstar athlete at Brother Rice High School in Chicago in basketball, football, and baseball, where he actually hit a walk off home run against Brady Neal's IMG Academy in their shared 2022 senior year. A three star football recruit, he spurned a preferred walk on opportunity at Notre Dame to accept a roster spot locally Northwestern. Early in his college career, he was actually a bigger football star than baseball, working his way up to the starting quarterback job for the Wildcats by his sophomore year and consistently remaining high on the depth chart even in years where he wasn't the outright starter. He didn't play baseball as a freshman or as a sophomore, but got on the field as a junior and earned the starting center field right away. He took another step forward as a senior/second year baseball player after giving up football, slashing .312/.393/.653 with 16 home runs to establish himself as a legitimate draft prospect. Lausch has football size and athleticism at 6'2", 215 pounds, bringing that strength to the diamond in a variety of ways. The power has started to show up and could become a major part of his game, though his approach at the plate remains relatively raw with an elevated 27.8% strikeout rate and a more average 10.7% walk rate. It's a simple, direct left handed swing that produces natural leverage without selling out, so more experience against high level arms and patient development from the Reds organization should help get him closer to a fringy hit tool, though for now it's well below average. He plays a strong center field and can profile in all three outfield spots, which especially as a left handed hitter helps his profile significantly. If Lausch can clean up his approach, which at 22 years old (23 this offseason) isn't necessarily a given, he has a chance to be a useful fourth outfielder with some thump at the plate.

Monday, September 5, 2022

The top 12 unsigned high school position players from the 2022 draft

Only six college players from my 225-deep 2022 draft rankings are returning to school, but we have a lot more on the high school side heading to campus. We'll start by looking at the position players, ranked by where they fell on my 2022 board. Previous names to show up on this list include future/potential future first rounders Brooks Lee, Spencer Jones, Kevin Parada, Daniel Susac, Dylan Crews, Enrique Bradfield, and...you get the point. There are plenty of premium bats starting classes as we speak, many who could make an impact immediately at their new schools and some who may take a few years, like Jones, but the vast majority of these names will likely be major contributors if past lists are any indication. LSU is the only school to land multiple names on here and they have three, and they were also the only school with multiple names on the pitchers list as well. Throw in their incredible transfer class, and you have the most talented team in college baseball on paper.

1. SS Max Martin, Rutgers. My 2022 draft rank: #54.
Rutgers has to be thrilled to land Max Martin, a New Jersey native who is equally thrilled to represent his home state rather than follow his neighbors down south to schools like Maryland, Virginia, and UNC, which regularly poach the area for talent. Martin is the best high school prospect to reach New Brunswick in a long time, in fact one of the best high school prospects in a while to reach the Big Ten as a whole. He was a trendy name over the winter as one of the class's fastest risers and had a chance to hit his way into the first round with a strong spring, but didn't quite live up to expectations and here we are. Martin is an explosive hitter that shows big bat speed from the right side, producing high exit velocities from a line drive approach that could help him grow into average or better power despite a smaller 6', 180 pound frame. He makes a ton of hard contact and looked great at times over the summer and in the fall against high quality pitching, though he didn't beat up his South Jersey high school competition as much as hoped this spring. A plus runner that shows plenty of range at shortstop, he has enough arm strength to stick at shortstop at least throughout his time at Rutgers, if not beyond. The Philadelphia-area native is a high-IQ player that could slot into the Scarlet Knights' lineup from day one, and if he proves that last spring was only a fluke, he could become Rutgers' first first round pick since Todd Frazier in 2007. In any case, he should at least be the first Rutgers player selected in the first five rounds since Patrick Kivlehan was a fourth rounder in 2012.

2. OF Gavin Turley, Oregon State. My 2022 draft rank: #69.
If you're looking for this year's Dylan Crews, there are some parallels in Gavin Turley, though Turley is not nearly as polished as Crews was two years ago. Despite being raw all around, the fact that Oregon State's entire outfield was drafted in the top eight rounds means that Turley could jump straight into an every day role, and head coach Mitch Canham would be thrilled if that happened. What Turley lacks in polish, he makes up in raw ability. He shows off tremendous raw power from a big, explosive right handed swing that produces huge exit velocities, though his approach is raw and he doesn't quite have the barrel control you need to hit Pac-12 pitching just yet. If he does end up being thrust into the lineup right away, that could lead to some growing pains, but the ceiling is huge and I can't imagine it will take him too long to adjust. Meanwhile, he is also a plus-plus runner with a plus arm that could become a monster on the defensive side of the ball as well. Similarly to his hitting, his defense is raw and he'll need to improve his instincts to play center field, so it seems more likely he'd end up in right field to start out. Turley is every bit talented enough to swing his way into the top half of the first round after three years in Corvallis, but he does have a ways to go to reach that ceiling.

3. C Malcolm Moore, Stanford. My 2022 draft rank: #70.
Stanford got highly acclaimed prep Drew Bowser to campus two years ago and all he's done is slash .297/.355/.534 with 25 home runs in his two seasons, and now the Cardinal have an equally famous bat coming in. Malcolm Moore is the latest bat-first catcher to come out of the Central Valley, following Tyler Soderstrom and Daniel Susac, who both went on to become first round picks for the local A's. Moore has a chance to play right away, as last year's starting catcher Kody Huff went to the Rockies in the seventh round and the team's two returners behind the plate, Charlie Saum and Alberto Rios, combine for exactly two career hits. He can really swing it, showing off above average power from a very strong 6'2" frame. He's very fluid in the box for a big guy, working from a coiled load and a rotational left handed swing to put plenty of loft on the ball. Not just a slugger, Moore has a strong track record against high end pitching and is plenty advanced enough to handle Pac-12 pitching right away. There is a lot of pre-pitch movement before he gets the barrel going towards the zone, but it's nothing terribly concerning. Meanwhile, I imagine Stanford will give him the opportunity to play behind the plate, but he ultimately looks like a first baseman long term with stiff actions and a fringy arm. Still, there is plenty enough bat to play. With a July 31st birthday, the Sacramento native beats the cutoff by one day and will be draft-eligible again as a sophomore in 2024, like Susac at Arizona.

4. SS Jalin Flores, Texas. My 2022 draft rank: #82.
Texas' last shortstop, Trey Faltine, was a very highly regarded prospect when he hit campus, and they'll get to replace him with another one now that he's off to the Reds as a seventh rounder. While Faltine was primarily known for his defense and athleticism, Jalin Flores is more of a bat-first type that may not stick at shortstop. He'll have that opportunity at Texas with Faltine gone, but long term into pro ball, it's probably 50/50 whether he ends up there or at third base with more arm than range. He has a big league body to grow into, with a very projectable 6'2" frame with plenty of room to fill out. The San Antonio product has a chance to grow into above average power as he fills out, with a leveraged right handed swing that will be conducive to tapping that power in games. He also shows the ability to go to all fields with an average hit tool, so all the building blocks are there to become a middle of the order force in Austin. Born on the exact same day as Malcolm Moore, he'll also be draft-eligible again in 2024 and may not be wearing orange for long, but with a couple years of performance in the Big 12 he could hit his way into the top fifty picks, perhaps even the first round if he shows he can stick at shortstop.

5. SS Gavin Kilen, Louisville. My 2022 draft rank: #85.
The ACC's top incoming position player prospect, Gavin Kilen has a chance to be a big problem at Louisville. I see a number of parallels between his game and that of first overall pick Jackson Holliday before his breakout, and Kilen could be just a little bit of physical development away from becoming a star. He is extremely polished in the box and makes a ton of all-fields contact from the left side, looking right at home against premium pitching. The power may take some time to come, as he's skinny at 5'11" and presently lacks much impact. His stock actually took a bit of a hit this spring, when he hit too many ground balls and and soft liners for scouts' liking even if he was making very consistent contact. If he can put on a little bit of strength and just get to fringe-average power, the offensive profile suddenly becomes very, very attractive. Even at present, his IQ in the box should help him slot into the Louisville lineup right away, though Louisville does return both its star middle infielders in shortstop Christian Knapczyk and second baseman Logan Beard and Kilen may have to pay his dues in the outfield to start things out. Once he does get a shot at the infield, he could follow Knapczyk at shortstop with very fluid actions around the dirt and enough arm strength to make it work. His arm may push him to second base in the long run, but it's an attractive defensive profile regardless. He'll fit very well into a Louisville lineup filled with high-OBP types.

6. SS Anthony Silva, Texas Christian. My 2022 draft rank: #89*.
Anthony Silva removed his name shortly before the draft, so he technically did not rank on my final list and the #89 ranking represents where he would have landed had he taken part. A premium athlete that had many teams interested on day one of the draft, he had a poor showing at the MLB Draft Combine in June and saw his stock tumble a bit, so he'll head to TCU to put that event behind him. At his best, Silva shows off a very intriguing bat from the right side, with plenty of loft and bat speed for now and a very projectable 6'2" frame promising more power as he fills out. He also makes plenty of contact for now, but does need to find more consistency with the Horned Frogs to fully tap his offensive potential. The San Antonio native is more advanced as a shortstop right now, with turning in some plus-plus run times that give him great range in addition to a plus arm. At his best, he looks like a premium defender there whose glove can buy his bat plenty of time. The Combine performance told many evaluators that Silva may not be the premium athlete they thought he was, and many of his tools lost a half grade or more, so the first order of business in Fort Worth will be to get back to his peak physically. If he can do that while adding strength and impact at the plate, he has the makings of a very early draft pick. He'll want to do so quickly, because he'll be draft eligible again as a sophomore in 2024.

7. SS Cameron Smith, Florida State. My 2022 draft rank: #90.
Cam Smith had some helium this spring when he got off to a hot start, though a strong commitment to Florida State combined with concerns over his age got him to Tallahassee. He's the age of a college sophomore as he steps on campus for the first time and will be draft-eligible again in 2024, so the FSU coaching staff will expect him to adjust fairly quickly. Smith has a very clean swing from the right side and made a ton of contact against strong competition in South Florida this spring, with an advanced approach and strong feel for the barrel. He packs solid power into his strong 6'3" frame, with the chance to get to above average as he gets stronger and more explosive. Jordan Carrion is retuning to Tallahassee this spring after serving as the starting shortstop a year ago, so I don't expect Smith to slot in at the premium position right away, but he will have a chance to take over if Carrion goes pro after next season. Smith is smooth and sure-handed on the infield, but he may not have the range to play shortstop long term and probably fits better at third base. Florida State was really starved for offense last year, so they'll welcome any spark with open arms and Smith has a very good chance to provide that right away.

8. OF Paxton Kling, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #93*
Like Anthony Silva, Paxton Kling removed his name from the draft and wasn't on my final rankings, but would have ranked #93 if he took part. LSU has put together a loaded roster for 2023, including returning Dylan Crews, Gavin Dugas, Brayden Jobert, Josh Pearson, and Josh Stevenson all in the outfield, so it will be very difficult for Kling to find playing time in the short run. Given that he already turned 19 back in May and will be draft eligible again as a sophomore, he will want to find those at bats quickly to build his stock for 2024. The good news is that he is every bit talented enough to break through that crowded outfield picture and do so. He takes huge hacks from the right side that generate above average power, and he could grow into plus power as he fills out his 6'2" frame. Kling also shows good pitch recognition skills and solid barrel adjustability for a power hitter, giving him a shot at an above average hit tool in a best case scenario. It's important to note that he spent his high school career facing much younger competition, though, and once that script flips in college, SEC arms could find holes in a swing that tends to get long when he's looking for power. How the central Pennsylvania native adjusts to that new dynamic will determine how quickly he can force his way into Jay Johnson's lineup, but he has every opportunity to become an impact hitter for the Tigers if he does adjust well. His defense will help, as he is an above average runner with a strong arm that can fit very well at any outfield position and provide value. LSU will feature a ferocious lineup this year, and the fact that a bat like Kling's may not get regular playing time is just further proof of that.

9. C Brady Neal, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #97.
Speaking of LSU's loaded lineup, Paxton Kling isn't the only big name hitter reaching campus. Fortunately for Brady Neal, his path to playing time won't be quite as crowded as last year's starting catcher, Tyler McManus, graduated, leaving last year's primary backup, Hayden Travinski, and incoming freshman Jared Jones as Neal's main competition. Additionally, Neal will have a little less pressure on him to get at bats right away, as he's nearly a year and a half younger than Kling after reclassifying into the class of 2022 and is still just 17 years old. Despite his youth, he is extremely advanced and should adjust to SEC pitching well, taking very professional at bats with sound pitch recognition skills. We're still working on the pure bat to ball skills, but that should come in time as he continues to select good pitches to hit. Despite standing just 5'10", he's also starting to show more power in games and could get to average in that regard from a clean, leveraged left handed swing. Meanwhile, the Tampa-area product caught plenty of high-octane arms during his time at IMG Academy, so when Christian Little and Paul Skenes come out pumping upper 90's, he'll be ready. He stands out for his athleticism behind the plate more than his pure glovework, but again, he's very young and that should catch up in time. A strong arm rounds out what is a very, very well rounded profile, and even if Travinski or Jones wins the starting job in 2023, Neal should eventually claim it as his own and will be draft eligible again well before his 21st birthday in 2025.

10. 3B Estevan Moreno, Notre Dame. My 2022 draft rank: #98.
Estevan Moreno is a personal favorite of mine, and as far as I know you won't find him in the top one hundred on any other draft lists. While he's not the most famous name set to reach campus this spring, I think he could change that very quickly in South Bend. Moreno is coming off a strong spring where he pushed himself up draft boards, showing off a strong combination of power and polish. He generates a ton of torque in his strong right handed swing, with big pull side power that he can tap in games. Meanwhile, he employs an effective all-fields approach and is more than willing to go to right field, but he does tap his power better to the pull side. At Notre Dame, he'll have an opportunity to refine that approach and better spread his power out to all fields, and if he does so without sacrificing contact he could surprise some people as one of the better hitters in the ACC. The Chicago-area product is an unremarkable defender at third base, but may get the opportunity to play there after 2022 starter Jack Brannigan was the only position player drafted off the team. Even if he has to move to left field, I'm a believer in Moreno's bat and I think he could be a very interesting sleeper in the ACC.

11. SS Gavin Guidry, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #109.
LSU isn't done yet after outfielder Paxton Kling and catcher Brady Neal, because 2022 Louisiana Gatorade Player of the Year Gavin Guidry will stay home and join the Pennsylvanian and Floridian in Baton Rouge. And with third baseman Jacob Berry gone to the Marlins, second baseman Cade Doughty now with the Blue Jays, and incoming transfer and shortstop Carter Young unexpectedly signing with the Orioles in the seventeenth round, Guidry has a chance to jump right in and play right from the get go. His positional versatility helps as well, as perhaps his best asset is his athleticism that allows him to profile virtually anywhere. He's an above average runner that moves very well on the defensive side of the ball, showing the hands and arm strength to stick at shortstop or the speed to play center field. Jordan Thompson probably won't give up the shortstop position so easily, but he could easily replace Berry at third base or Doughty at second base and be a defensive upgrade over either of them. At the plate, Guidry again shows a balanced skill set with a patient approach at the plate and strong hand eye coordination to execute when he does get his pitch. He's still growing into his 6'2" frame but could eventually tap above average power if things break right, making for a profile with few holes. The Lake Charles native is already 19 and will be eligible again in 2024, so he has two years to make his impact in Baton Rouge unless he spurns the draft again.

12. C Ike Irish, Auburn. My 2022 draft rank: #123.
Auburn won't be hurting for catching depth next year, bringing back starter Nate LaRue and backup/utility man Ryan Dyal in addition to landing JuCo transfer Carter Wright from Iowa Western. That will make Ike Irish's quest for immediate playing time somewhat difficult, but nobody from that group is a particularly imposing hitter and I don't think head coach Butch Thompson would mind getting a little more production out of that spot in the lineup. Irish is a bit raw, which may make a gradual transfer of power more likely than jumping into the every day role right away, but there is big time upside here. He stands out for above average raw power from the left side, with a big swing that gets long and uphill through the zone. He loves to get his arms extended and drive the ball in the air, which will be very conducive to big home run totals at Auburn. The hit tool is more raw here, as he struggles to recognize quality breaking balls and showed more swing and miss this past spring than expected, so transitioning to SEC pitching may take a little time. The Auburn coaching staff will hope to help him make the necessary adjustments there sooner rather than later, but all that depth they have behind the plate takes some pressure off. The Michigan native stands out for his plus-plus ram behind the plate that will really limit the running game, with solid athleticism that will keep him behind the plate. He's more strong than quick twitch and will need to refine his glovework a little bit, but that's nothing out of the ordinary for an incoming freshman catcher.

Honorable Mentions
#126 OF Jayson Jones, Arkansas
#128 OF Jeric Curtis, Texas Tech
#132 OF Peyton Brennan, UCLA
#133 OF Mason Neville, Arkansas
#135 OF Max Belyeu, Texas
#148 1B Jayden Hylton, Stetson
#149 SS Drew Faurot, Central Florida
#155 C Beau Sylvester, Oklahoma State
#156 C Adonys Guzman, Boston College
#159* SS RJ Austin, Vanderbilt

Friday, July 29, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers clearly had a type in this draft, with each of the first four position players they drafted standing 5'10" or shorter (and number five was still only an even six foot). They prioritized bat to ball skills and professional approaches at the plate, with college bats like Eric Brown, Robert Moore, and Matt Wood bringing a high floor with and Dylan O'Rae appearing to be a bit of a sleeper. The one pitcher they took early on, Jacob Misiorowski, has the exact opposite profile as a 6'7" fireballer with one of the most electric fastballs in the class. He signed for a much bigger bonus than many in the industry expected, which may jeopardize their prized day three selections. Just like last year, Milwaukee shot for the moon on day three and drafted numerous high end high school talents that appeared hell-bent on attending school, with the hopes of signing maybe two or three. Now with Misiorowski's big bonus, the most they can offer any individual day three prepster is just short of $700,000, which seems like it would not be enough to land either LSU commit in Brady Neal or Jaden Noot.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-27: SS Eric Brown, Coastal Carolina. My rank: #27.
Slot value: $2.70 million. Signing bonus: $2.05 million ($651,900 below slot value).
The Brewers started off on the right foot by drafting Coastal Carolina shortstop Eric Brown, long a favorite of analytics-driven scouts coming off his best year yet for the Chanticleers. In 57 games, Brown slashed .330/.460/.544 with seven home runs and an extremely impressive 28/39 strikeout to walk ratio, including five walks to just one strikeout at the Greenville Regional. The first thing you'll notice watching him play is his unique setup at the plate, in which he starts with his hands held right next to his ear while wiggling the bat back towards the third base dugout behind him. From there, he brings those hands forward across his cheek and points the bat head directly at the pitcher, then quickly brings them back to his back shoulder to get ready for the pitch. A traditional, square peg square hole coach would see this and scream about all the wasted movement, but Brown has impeccable timing and is always perfectly in position to hit when the time comes. From there, the Shreveport-area native stands out for his extraordinary plate discipline, with just enough patience to rarely chase pitches out of the zone but still plenty of decisiveness to attack pitches he likes. By swinging at good pitches, he's able to channel his wiry strength into consistently high exit velocities, employing a line drive approach that sends balls screaming around the diamond. Undersized at 5'10", he hasn't shown much over the fence power with just sixteen career home runs in 123 games at Coastal Carolina, but given his ability to sting the baseball with regularity he could tap into 15-20 home run power or more in the big leagues if he starts to lift it more often. While he lacks explosive athleticism, he's balanced and fluid at shortstop with a strong arm, giving him a chance to stick at the premium position. If not, he could be a plus defender at second or third base. Brown should move quickly through the minors and could hit atop the Brewers' lineup sooner rather than later.

2-63: RHP Jacob Misiorowski, Crowder JC. My rank: #66.
Slot value: $1.13 million. Signing bonus: $2.35 million ($1.22 million above slot value).
Jacob Misiorowski is one of the more unique arms in this class, one who had some late helium and had interest much earlier in the second round. Signability pushed him down a bit and he signed with Milwaukee for more than double slot value (and more than Eric Brown received at the 27th pick), closer to the slot value of the 32nd pick. If you remember back to the 2019 draft, the Brewers picked up Wabash Valley JC lefty Antoine Kelly with the 65th pick, and Misiorowski at #63 is extremely similar. The 6'7" righty dominated at Crowder JC in southwestern Missouri, posting a 2.72 ERA and a 136/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings on the strength of his wicked stuff. It's a profile dominated by the fastball, as he sits comfortably in the mid to upper 90's and can pop for triple digits at his best, coming from a lower release point with elite extension that gives it a ton of life beyond just its premium velocity. When located, it's truly one of the best fastballs in the entire class. Misiorowski also works in a short, power slider that gets into the upper 80's, though it's an average pitch on its own that missed a ton of bats at Crowder because hitters were so overwhelmed by his fastball. He doesn't throw much of a changeup for now, which will need to be a major emphasis in his development if he wants to start. The Kansas City-area native also struggles to keep his ultra long limbs in check, struggling to repeat his delivery at times and leading to below average command. As a JUCO sophomore, he only turned 20 in April and has plenty of time to figure things out. The Brewers will need to put a lot of work into this project in streamlining his delivery and developing his secondaries, but the upside is massive because you just can't teach the combination of power and extension he brings to the table. Kelly, a lefty, had the same height and a similarly explosive fastball out of Wabash Valley JC, but his secondaries and command were even less refined than Misiorowski's and he looks to be breaking out at High A Wisconsin this year.

CBB-72: SS Robert Moore, Arkansas. My rank: #104.
Slot value: $915,300. Signing bonus: $800,000 ($115,300 below slot value).
Robert Moore has another extremely unique profile, though it's on the complete opposite end of the spectrum as Jacob Misiorowski. The son of Royals GM Dayton Moore, Robert graduated early from his Kansas City-area high school (in fact just 23 miles west of Misiorowski's high school) to enroll at Arkansas and set the world on fire as an underclassman. Despite playing his first college game at just 17 years old, he slashed .291/.388/.534 with 18 home runs in 76 games over his first two collegiate seasons. After hitting .351 for the US Collegiate National Team over the summer, he entered this spring with sky high expectations and plenty of interest throughout the first round. However, 2022 did more to highlight the weaknesses in his game than the strengths, and he finished with just a .232/.374/.427 slash line, eight home runs, and a 46/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games. So who is Robert Moore? Listed at just 5'9" and skinny at that, he doesn't stand out on the baseball field, but his intangibles absolutely do. He has an exceptional understanding of the strike zone for such a young hitter (he still only turned 20 in March), is completely unfazed by advanced stuff and makes hard contact to all fields. A switch hitter, Moore takes big, healthy hacks from both sides of the plate that helped him tap some solid pull side power as an underclassman, especially from the left side, but that power did not show up with wood over the summer and his unremarkable 2022 calls that power potential further into question. He'll likely have to resort to more of a line drive approach in pro ball, where he could hit 10-15 home runs a year with high on-base percentages at best if everything translates and he recaptures his 2020-2021 form. Defensively, Moore provides plenty of value with excellent instincts at second base, plenty of range, and just enough arm strength to get it done. The Brewers drafted him as a shortstop and there is a chance he could work there, with those instincts and range hopefully making up for his arm. Ultimately, I see a utility type that will be a great addition in the clubhouse, as he was known as a true catalyst at Arkansas that could fire up his team when they needed it.

3-102: SS Dylan O'Rae, Northern Collegiate HS [ON]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $600,700. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($3,200 below slot value).
This pick came completely out of left field, completely stumping the MLB.com analysts if you were watching. Dylan O'Rae was not ranked on MLB Pipeline's top 250, nor on the Baseball America 500 or the Prospects Live top 600. Undersized at 5'9" (much like Robert Moore directly above him), he will need to get much more physical to compete in the pro game, but the raw skills are absolutely there. O'Rae has very quick hands in the box with an explosive left handed swing, and as he puts on weight and physically matures, he could tap some solid power at the next level. He performed well at showcase events with good feel to use the whole field, and he's a plus runner that makes things happen. The Ontario product also plays a solid shortstop and could stick there, again, if he gets a little bigger and stronger, making this a very well rounded package. He signed with the Brewers rather than attend Illinois, where he could have emerged in three years as a second rounder with a track record of performance.

4-132: C Matt Wood, Penn State. My rank: #125.
Slot value: $448,400. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($100,900 below slot value).
The Brewers shored up their catching depth with an all-around contributor in Matt Wood. Wood was a solid catcher in State College before breaking out for a huge 2022, slashing .379/.480/.667 with 12 home runs and a 26/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. He's not overly physical at 5'10", but maximizes his offensive output with excellent plate discipline and feel for the barrel, producing a high quantity of hard hit baseballs to all fields that find grass and seats in bunches. He recognizes pitches well and doesn't swing and miss much, and while some of his college home runs may turn into doubles in pro ball, he should continue to spray the ball around the field with authority. The Pittsburgh-area native is also a better athlete than your average catcher and moves well behind the plate, though he does need some refinement with the finer aspects of catching. Overall, it's a profile that doesn't stand out in any particular area except perhaps his feel for hitting, but he has all the makings of a first division backup catcher or second division starter that can provide some impact in the box. Think perhaps 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which is more than many catchers can claim nowadays.

14-432: RHP Aidan Maldonado, Minnesota. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: likely around $125K.
The Brewers didn't draft any Wisconsinites this year, but they did get two Upper Midwesterners in Illinois-Chicago's Nate Peterson (from Lakeville, MN) and Minnesota's Aidan Maldonado. Maldonado grew up in Rosemount on the south side of the Twin Cities and less than a half hour drive from the Wisconsin border, then originally began his career at Illinois where he ran a 7.44 ERA over three seasons. Transferring back home to Minnesota this year, he was much more consistent and pitched to a 3.91 ERA and a 90/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings. He has a low to mid 90's fastball that can get up to 96, adding a sweepy slider and a bigger curveball. Maldonado has a violent delivery with a pronounced stabbing motion in the back, which previously held his command back to the point where he was unplayable on the mound for Illinois. He wrangled that command enough to get to 40, maybe 45 on his best days this spring, which suddenly helps his big stuff play up. The offspeed stuff can still be inconsistent and with a tendency to lose his arm slot and yank his pitches, he still doesn't locate well enough to crack it as a starter. But in shorter stints, he could be a nasty reliever that doesn't have to worry so much about game planning and holding things together for longer periods of time.

17-522: C Brady Neal, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #97.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unlikely to sign.
Perhaps the biggest name of Milwaukee's day three splurge, Brady Neal would be a massive get if they can find the money. A second to fourth round prospect on most boards, he would have gone within the top one hundred picks if he had been more signable and it will likely require close to or over a million dollars to lure him away from an LSU commitment, which the Brewers don't have. Originally a member of the class of 2023, Neal reclassified to be a part of the 2022 class and has looked quite at home among the best players in the class. Despite not turning 18 until October, he takes very good at bats against high quality pitching, looking unfazed against premium velocity and breaking stuff. The barrel accuracy is a bit behind the plate discipline but it's catching up quickly, and his left handed swing has been looking better and better. Though he stands only 5'10", he has a chance at average or better power to go with a hit tool that will likely end up at least above average down the line. There are some questions about how much impact he'll ultimately provide at the plate, he's so advanced for his age that adding that impact can be a greater focus than most catchers. Like Matt Wood, he's very agile behind the plate and could even hold his own at an infield spot if need be, but he'll be a catcher going forward. While his game does need some overall refinement back there like you'd expect from a 17 year old, again, it's very advanced for his age.

18-552: SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, Champagnat Catholic HS [FL]. My rank: #185.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: likely above $500K if he signs.
Ironically, the Brewers actually drafted a Dutch teenager out of Champagnat Catholic High School in the Miami area a year ago, and they'll do the same this year with Curacao native Jurrangelo "Loo" Cijntje (pronounced SAINT-juh). Aside from having quite possibly the coolest name in the draft, Cijntje is a living, breathing switch pitcher that will have a chance to continue doing his thing in the minors. He's sharper from the right side, where he can get up to 97 and comfortably deals in the low 90's, while his slider shows nice sweep. From the left side, he's more in the upper 80's and his slider lacks power, but it does show good depth. As you might imagine, he's an exceptional athlete that moves well on the mound and represents a great ball of clay for Milwaukee should he sign. Cijntje is very old for a high school senior having already turned 19 in May, but it's such a unique profile that the age isn't a huge deal. He's for sure a potential big league pitcher from the right side, and if he can add velocity and power to his stuff from the left side, he could do both in the majors. Regardless, he does need to tighten up his breaking balls and get more consistent with his command. Because he's already 19, he'll be eligible again in 2024 should he head to Mississippi State.

19-582: RHP Jaden Noot, Sierra Canyon HS [CA]. My rank: #118.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unlikely to sign.
Jaden Noot, like Brady Neal and the already-signed Jacob Misiorowski, is committed to LSU and will require a massive bonus to sign. At this point, it looks unlikely after Misiorowski's massive bonus and the fact that he has been considered a tough sign throughout the process. Noot is a big, physical pitcher at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, and he's teeming with arm strength. The fastball comfortably sits in the low to mid 90's and he can touch as high as 97 while looking like he's just playing catch. His slider is his best offspeed, looking above average at its best, while his curveball shows big break but needs to add power and he lacks feel for his changeup coming out of his hand. Throwing without much effort, he's able to show solid command and could get to above average in that regard in the future, giving him at least a back-end starter's profile. The Los Angeles-area native is not a great athlete, with a short stride down the mound and an upright finish that's more reminiscent of old school innings eating starters than the explosive athletes like Misiorowski. Noot will have to watch his conditioning but the arm strength is undeniable. Should he end up in Baton Rouge, he could step into the weekend rotation relatively quickly and emerge as a much higher pick after three years of performance.