Earlier this week, we took a look at the top high school hitters to reach campus and before that looked at a rather shallow group of unsigned college players. We'll close it out with incoming freshman pitchers, which bring eleven different schools for the twelve arms. Just like with the hitters, LSU is again the only school with multiple names on their list, and their five combined blows out second place Notre Dame with two combined. Pitchers can be more unpredictable than hitters, but certainly keep an eye on these names as past lists have included names like Jack Leiter, Hunter Barco, Cade Horton, Ricky Tiedemann, Tanner Witt, Thatcher Hurd, Chase Burns, Brody Brecht, and Carter Holton, all of whom went on to become impact pitchers in one way or another. This list also includes my top overall recruit at any position in terms of MLB Draft value in Andrew Dutkanych, who regularly flashed first round potential.
1. RHP Andrew Dutkanych, Vanderbilt. My 2022 draft rank: #37*.
Andrew Dutkanych removed himself from the draft before the event and therefore did not appear on my draft rankings, but he would have ranked #37 and is therefore the top high school prospect at any position to reach campus this fall, well ahead of #54 Max Martin of Rutgers. Dutkanych's stock had been very up and down throughout the draft cycle, so rather than play games with the draft, he'll look for more consistency as part of a Vanderbilt program that could use a boost in the rotation. He looked exceptional at times over the summer and heard his name as high as the middle of the first round, but also had some rougher outings that threw some doubt into the equation. While warm weather arms like Jackson Ferris, Dylan Lesko, and Brandon Barriera got off to hot starts, Dutkanych had to hang back an extra minute while the Indiana weather warmed up, and he slipped a little on boards. Then he came out firing early in the Indianapolis spring, rocketing back into the first round conversation, before his command began to falter and he slipped back down once again. So what is Vanderbilt getting? I'm personally a fan of Dutkanych, who at his best looks like by far the best incoming freshman pitcher in the country. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 97 with some ride, while his short, tight slider looks plus at its best and can miss a ton of bats. He also throws a loopier curveball that shows promise if he can tighten it up in addition to a fringy but improving changeup, giving him the chance for four average or better pitches. The 6'3" righty loves to go right after hitters and pounds the strike zone with intent, throwing all of his pitches with conviction just the way you want to see it. His control is ahead of his command, as he can miss up with his fastball and spike his breaking balls and is overall inconsistent in that department, but that's where you'd rather miss and I have confidence Tim Corbin's staff will get him straightened out. Even with Christian Little gone to LSU and Chris McElvain now in the Reds system, it's a crowded rotation picture in Nashville between Dutkanych, Carter Holton, Devin Futrell, Patrick Reilly, and the litany of talented young arms waiting to step up. Dutkanych will be draft eligible again as a sophomore in 2024, having been born right on the cutoff day just like Stanford's Malcolm Moore and Texas' Jalin Flores ironically enough, so he'll want to earn those innings sooner rather than later. I think he can, and he could challenge Holton for the Friday night spot by 2024.
2. LHP Tristan Smith, Clemson. My 2022 draft rank: #68.
Clemson thought they might land two of the best high school pitchers in the country when both Tristan Smith and Brock Porter slipped out of the top three rounds, but even with Porter signing with the Rangers for a massive bonus, Smith will bring some real firepower to a pitching staff that remains largely intact outside of ace Mack Anglin (Royals). With only Anglin gone, it may be tough to find innings in a rotation that will also add impact transfer Willie Weiss from Michigan, but the 2022 South Carolina Gatorade Player of the Year has what it takes to break through. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can reach back for 96, with high spin rates that give it plenty of life. His best pitch is a plus slider, again with high spin rates, that comes in with sharp, late break to miss bats in bunches. Smith mainly works off those two pitches and will need to develop his changeup to eventually take over that Friday night role, but it's a very loud arsenal regardless. The 6'2" lefty is athletic and moves well on the mound, though he has some moving parts in his delivery and can lose his release point at times, leading to inconsistent command. It's good enough for now, but he'll want to clean that up quickly because he's extremely old for an incoming freshman and will be draft eligible again in 2024. If he can't take a step forward with either his command or his changeup, he'll project well as a starter in pro ball, but there is some long term relief risk.
3. RHP Riley Kelly, UC Irvine. My 2022 draft rank: #88.
Riley Kelly is a projection play that may not make an immediate impact at UC Irvine with only moderate turnover on the pitching staff, but given some time, I think he could become the next great Anteater ace. He was a pop-up prospect this spring and had some serious draft helium as scouts came rushing in to Orange County to see him at Tustin High School, though he was still just a little bit to raw to command a signing bonus large enough to steer him away from school. His fastball sits around 90 and tops out around 94, dipping into the upper 80's at times. Kelly's best attribute is his curveball, with huge top to bottom break that he can sharpen up for a tighter look if he wants. He commands it well and it might be the best incoming freshman breaking ball coming to campus this fall. The changeup is a distant third pitch for now, which of course he'll want to develop in order to take that Friday night role eventually. The 6'4" righty is tremendously projectable and will almost assuredly add velocity in Irvine as he fills out that big frame, especially as he smooths out a methodical delivery that loses power as he moves through it. That in turn should help his command, which is presently fringy. Kelly has a ton of work to do to reach his lofty ceiling, but UC Irvine has a strong track record of pitching development from Trenton Denholm to Andre Pallante.
4. LHP Levi Huesman, Coastal Carolina. My 2022 draft rank: #110.
Levi Huesman has some work to do before he's ready to take on Sun Belt competition, but Coastal Carolina lost its entire weekend rotation and would love for him to step up if possible. He burst onto the scene last fall at the WWBA Championship, then rode a solid but unspectacular spring to a seventeenth round selection by the Rays. Huesman sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can get up to 96 at best, though he didn't always maintain that velocity last spring and often pitched closer to 90. He also throws an interesting sweeping slider that looks like a plus pitch at its best with plenty of break, but he does need to tighten it up as it gets loopy at times. Lastly, his changeup is well behind and will need to be developed. The Richmond-area native stands just six feet tall and doesn't offer a ton of projection with his skinny frame, but he is very athletic on the mound and repeats his delivery well, pounding the strike zone with average command. His shorter stature also helps him get a lower release height on the ball, giving his fastball great ride and helping the slider play off it. Coastal Carolina will want to help him get stronger so he can maintain his peak stuff over a long college season, and if he can hold his command together while doing so, he has every chance to jump into that weekend rotation.
5. RHP Chase Shores, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #111.
LSU landed three names on the position player version of this article, and Chase Shores gives them their first pitcher. Last year, LSU was more known for their bats than their arms, but they return virtually everyone from last year's staff save for starter Ma'Khail Hilliard (graduation) and relievers Eric Reyzelman (Yankees) and Paul Gervase (Mets). In addition, they're bringing in a huge class of transfer arms led by Thatcher Hurd (UCLA), Christian Little (Vanderbilt), and Paul Skenes (Air Force), and then there's the freshman class led by Shores and the next man on this list, Jaden Noot. So long story short, it will be tough to earn innings, but he could be up to the task. Standing 6'8', he's already the tallest man in the dugout, and at 250 pounds he's no string bean. Shores comes in with a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch 98, playing up with running and sinking action from a low three quarters slot. That slot and height combination gives hitters a very tough look, and immediately gives him a leg up even on SEC competition. The West Texas native has a full set of inconsistent secondaries that flash average, with the slider the most promising pitch for now with above average grades at its best. Meanwhile, his arm slot can drop when he gets tired, leading to diminished command in those cases, but he fills up the zone when he's at full strength and getting on that LSU conditioning program should help him stay there. It feels redundant to say with a 6'8" freshman that can touch 98, but there is a ton of upside here if Jay Johnson's staff can get him more consistent with his secondary stuff while holding the command together.
6. RHP Jaden Noot, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #118.
Jaden Noot will jostle with Chase Shores for innings on that crowded LSU pitching staff, and he may have a better shot to win innings right away in 2023. He's also a big man at 6'4", 235 pounds, but he's more physical and not quite as athletic at this point. Noot sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 97, adding a slider that flashes above average, a loopy curveball with good depth in the low 70's, and a decent changeup. It's a very college-ready arsenal, though he does need to sharpen some things up to get from freshman innings eater to impact Friday/Saturday guy. The fastball has the velocity, but it's fairly straight and he'll need to play it off his other pitches. Meanwhile his curveball needs to add power to complement its depth, while he can slow his arm down on changeups at times. None of that is anything crazy, and there's no reason Jay Johnson and co. shouldn't be able to get him there. The Southern California native has tremendous arm strength and looks like he's just playing catch out there, which makes up for a relative lack of athleticism. If he can maintain his body and refine his offspeed stuff a bit, he has the chance to pitch a lot of big innings in Baton Rouge.
7. LHP Cade Obermueller, Iowa. My 2022 draft rank: #124.
Cade Obermueller draws a lot of parallels to Coastal Carolina's Levi Huesman. He's another undersized lefty that stands just 5'11", though he's thirty pounds lighter than Huesman and clocks in at just 155 pounds. Obviously the first thing the Iowa staff will want to do will be to stuff him full of steaks and protein, but he's already a great athlete and should put any added strength to good use. His fastball sits around 90 for now and tops out at 93, with similar flat plane to Huesman from a lower slot, albeit with some cut as well that makes it a fairly unique pitch. He brings a sweepy slider similar to Huesman as well and a decent changeup, rounding out a three pitch arsenal. Once Obermueller puts that weight on, he'll likely add a tick or two of velocity to his fastball and power to his slider, which will be necessary for him to fill Adam Mazur's shoes as a Friday night starter. Otherwise, his floor is something similar to Illinois' (now the Marlins') Cole Kirschsieper if the stuff doesn't tick up, which is still solid. The Iowa City native is a great athlete who should be able to hold his command together as his stuff ticks up, making it a very interesting profile all around. With Mazur (Padres) and swingmen Dylan Nedved (Padres) and Duncan Davitt (Rays) gone to pro ball, he'll have the opportunity to step into some innings quickly.
8. RHP Kassius Thomas, Duke. My 2022 draft rank: #130.
Duke is losing four of its top five arms by innings from 2022, plus TJ returner Henry Williams, so getting Kassius Thomas to campus will be a huge boon and he'll have an opportunity to earn big innings right away. He and Jaden Noot formed one of the best 1-2 punches in the country at Sierra Canyon High School in the Los Angeles area, and now both are heading way east for school. While Noot is a big, sturdy power arm, Thomas is more athletic and projectable as he trends in the right direction. His fastball sits in the low 90's and gets up to 95, with a quick right arm that promises more velocity as he fills out. He works in a full arsenal of solid secondary pitches, lead by a slider that flashes plus at its best and followed by a solid curveball and potentially above average changeup. The 6'1" righty doesn't always repeat his arm slot and can get around his breaking stuff, losing bite in the process and impacting his command, but he is trending in the right direction and hopefully Duke can keep that progress rolling. There is plenty to work with here and Thomas is a heady athlete with a high baseball IQ, so if he can put the velocity, athleticism, and feel for spin together consistently, he'll be a star in Durham.
9. RHP David Lally, Notre Dame. My 2022 draft rank: #134.
Interestingly, two of my favorite lesser-known names getting to campus are both heading to Notre Dame. Incoming infielder Estevan Moreno is my sleeper pick as a hitter, while righty David Lally is a very interesting one on the mound. The Irish will have significant turnover on the mound, losing most of their go-to arms either to pro ball or the transfer portal while also bringing in a couple of useful transfers, not to mention swapping head coaches from Link Jarrett to Shawn Stiffler. All that upheaval will give Lally a chance to break through, though he is fairly raw and might not be quite ready from the get go. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 96, with running life that can make it tough to square up. His breaking ball hasn't quite found its identity yet, but he does show good feel for spin and with some coaching could make some real leaps int hat area. Additionally, Flint, Michigan-area native shows a very strong changeup for a cold weather arm from an area that isn't traditionally a prospect hotbed, giving him an immediate weapon to use in South Bend. Standing 6'4", he comes with good projection and moves very well on the mound, though his mechanics are raw and will need to be smoothed out by the Notre Dame coaching staff. All together, if they get this right, Lally brings a ton of upside as a hard throwing righty that could end up with two or even three above average offspeed offerings.
10. RHP Jack O'Connor, Virginia. My 2022 draft rank: #142.
Despite losing Friday night starter Nate Savino (Diamondbacks) and swingman Brandon Neeck (Dodgers), among others, UVA projects to bring back a deep pitching staff augmented by a strong transfer class, so Jack O'Connor will have to fight for innings early on. He was inconsistent this spring, but had a little bit of late helium and may be ready. O'Connor sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can get up to 96, adding in a full set of secondaries. His above average slider is the best for now, and he can turn it into a harder cutter if he needs to, while his curveball is a bit looper and his changeup is a fringy pitch at this point. The Northern Virginia native hides the ball well from a very short arm action, though his command has been inconsistent and he'll want to get that ironed out in Charlottesville in addition to getting more consistent with his secondaries. O'Connor is big and projectable at 6'5" with plenty of arm strength, giving him a ton of upside, though UVA has had mixed results with premium arms that have reached campus lately like Savino and Mike Vasil.
11. RHP Grayson Saunier, Mississippi. My 2022 draft rank: #144.
Six different pitchers started at least five games for Ole Miss in 2022, and five of them plus closer Brandon Johnson are gone to either pro ball, the transfer portal, or medical school (props to you, John Gaddis), so there will be turnover on that champion pitching staff. That gives Grayson Saunier a chance to wrestle for innings in the rotation, though I see him more as a long term projection play who may not be ready for extended innings in the SEC until 2024. He has missed significant time with injuries in high school but should be healthy now, giving him the opportunity to build up for the season. Those injuries have caused Saunier's fastball to dip into the upper 80's at times, but he's up to 96 at his best with a ton of projection in his 6'4" frame promising to bring even more. His secondaries all flash big promise, with a couple of high spin breaking balls and a fading changeup making for a very intriguing four pitch arsenal. Being hurt has meant that he hasn't gotten the opportunity to refine those offerings and get more consistent, but now that he's healthy the Ole Miss coaching staff will get to work on that with him. The Memphis-area product has a clean, athletic delivery with the aforementioned ideal frame, so once he gets a little stronger, the sky is the limit if everything breaks right.
12. RHP Eli Jerzembeck, South Carolina. My 2022 draft rank: #153.
South Carolina returns the vast majority of its pitching staff and adds a couple of big transfer arms as well, so Eli Jerzembeck will have to fight for innings. The good news is that he's fairly advanced coming in and should be able to provide quality innings as a reliever before jumping into the rotation in 2024, when he'll be draft eligible again due to a very early birthday. Jerzembeck sits around 90 with his fastball but has been up to 96, so the arm strength is certainly there. His best pitch is a plus curveball with sharp, late bite that can get SEC hitters out right away, while his slider and changeup are less used pitches. The 6'2" righty does need to iron out his mechanics as a short strider and an upright thrower, and doing so could help him settle closer to his peak velocity than he does right now. Out of the USC bullpen, I can imagine him sitting 93-95 with that power curveball and carving up SEC lineups immediately, then working into the rotation as he gets those mechanics optimized and refines the rest of his arsenal a little more. How well he makes those adjustments will also determine his future role in pro ball.
Honorable Mentions
#158 RHP/QB Sam Horn, Missouri
#160 RHP Tyler Bremner, UC Santa Barbara
#163 RHP Hayden Murphy, Auburn
#167 RHP Malachi Witherspoon, Jacksonville
#185 BHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, Mississippi State
#189 LHP Brennan Phillips, Oklahoma State
#197 LHP Bradley Loftin, Mississippi State
#204 LHP Zach Crotchfelt, Auburn
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