Division Crown Contenders: Dodgers, Diamondbacks
Additional Wild Card Contenders: Giants, Rockies
Unlikely to Contend: Padres
Like the NL Central, the West looks to be a very competitive division, even with the Dodgers looking like clear favorites again as one of baseball's three super teams. Returning essentially the same team from last season, they not only are expected to win the division but make a deep postseason run. Behind them, the Diamondbacks are frontrunners for an NL Wild Card, and the Giants got much better over the offseason. Between the three, there should be meaningful games played in the division right up through the end of the season. Behind them, the Rockies field a competitive pitching staff, but the lack of offense will be, in my opinion, enough to keep them from competing on the same level. Lastly, the Padres are rebuilding and won't make much noise, but as with most rebuilding teams, they have plenty of young players to watch.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Notable Additions: Scott Alexander, Tom Koehler
Notable Losses: Yu Darvish, Brandon Morrow, Luis Avilan, Tony Watson, Curtis Granderson, Andre Ethier
Summary: Still one of the best teams in baseball with a balanced offense led by a couple of star hitters, a very strong rotation, and a good bullpen led by Kenley Jansen.
The Dodgers are down a couple of names, most notably starter Yu Darvish and reliever Brandon Morrow, but they're back and as good as ever in 2018. The balanced offense is led by Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger, three of the game's better hitters, and also includes Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor, Yasmani Grandal, Logan Forsythe, and Joc Pederson. Behind Grandal is arguably the game's best backup catcher, Austin Barnes, who can also play second base. Matt Kemp, Enrique Hernandez, Chase Utley, and co. give the team a solid bench as well, and Andrew Toles awaits in AAA in case there are more injuries. Also there is top prospect Alex Verdugo, who is talented enough to challenge for the NL Rookie of the Year Award and could give the Dodgers three straight ROY's after Seager and Bellinger. On the mound, it all starts with the game's best, Clayton Kershaw, followed by Alex Wood, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, all above average starting pitchers. If any of them get hurt, top prospect Walker Buehler awaits, and Julio Urias will also be back around June. Not only does this team have the game's best starting pitcher in Clayton Kershaw, it also has arguably the game's best reliever, Kenley Jansen. Behind Jansen, the bullpen took a little big of a hit, but Pedro Baez, Scott Alexander, Josh Fields, Tony Cingrani, and Ross Stripling still make for a solid unit. The roster has both star power and depth, making it as dangerous as any in the game and making them a favorite to return to the World Series from the NL.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Notable Additions: Steven Souza, Brad Boxberger, Alex Avila, Jarrod Dyson, Fernando Salas, Yoshihisa Hirano
Notable Losses: J.D. Martinez, Brandon Drury, Chris Iannetta, David Hernandez, Fernando Rodney
Summary: A very dangerous team that won't make the Dodgers' division crown hopes too easy, led by Paul Goldschmidt and an underrated rotation
Even with losing J.D. Martinez, the Diamondbacks bring a very strong team that could absolutely challenge the Dodgers, even if they can't match them bat for bat and arm for arm. Paul Goldschmidt is as good a hitter as any to build a lineup around, and Jake Lamb, A.J. Pollock, Steven Souza, David Peralta, and Alex Avila provide solid support. Avila in particular is an underrated bat, having hit the ball as hard as anybody else last season but getting only average results. Jarrod Dyson's speed will also be very valuable in that large outfield, and they recently locked up Ketel Marte on a long term deal. The rotation is perhaps the team's most underrated weapon, led by a pair of aces in Robbie Ray and Zack Greinke and also including Zack Godley, Taijuan Walker, and Patrick Corbin, three above average starters. There's not a lot of depth behind them though, with top prospects Taylor Clarke and Jon Duplantier as well as Braden Shipley looking like the only options to step in now that they traded away Anthony Banda. Fortunately, Shelby Miller will be back from Tommy John surgery midseason, and that could be huge if someone is hurt or make someone unhappy if everyone is healthy and firing in all cylinders. There are a few new faces in the bullpen, most notably relief ace Brad Boxberger as well as Fernando Salas and Japanese import Yoshihisa Hirano, plus Archie Bradley is very new to relief work as it is. It should be a pretty solid corps, especially if Bradley can repeat his performance from last season and Hirano can transition to the majors well. This is a very dangerous team that would really surprise me if they didn't win a Wild Card or more. It is also important to note that they added a humidor to their home park this year, which will bring offense down.
San Francisco Giants
Notable Additions: Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria, Austin Jackson, Tony Watson, Derek Holland
Notable Losses: Denard Span, Matt Cain, Christian Arroyo, Kyle Crick
Summary: Offense-first team with quite a few big bats, but a thin pitching staff may be its downfall. Still contenders for an NL Wild Card
The Giants are trying to go worst to first in 2018, and because last season's team was so darn unlucky and because of the additions they made this offseason, they will be able to make a huge jump in the win column this year. New additions Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria join Buster Posey and Brandon Belt in the middle of their lineup, with Austin Jackson joining a secondary set of hitters that includes Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford, and Joe Panik. Together, this is probably the best offense the Giants have put together in a while, and if top prospect Chris Shaw can pull a Cody Bellinger and immediately contribute once he's called up, they could be a dangerous team. However, where this team might struggle is on the mound, especially with Madison Bumgarner out with a fractured hand and Jeff Samardzija set to miss time with a pec injury. Johnny Cueto, Ty Blach, and Chris Stratton would make up the healthy rotation with Bumgarner and Samardzija, which is pretty decent but not all that great as it is, but now Derek Holland and either Andrew Suarez or Tyler Beede are expected to fill in, really making the rotation a weak spot at this point. Reliever Will Smith will miss the season with Tommy John surgery, which is a big hit to the bullpen, where Mark Melancon, Hunter Strickland, Sam Dyson, and Tony Watson are expected to lead. Overall, the hitting is definitely ahead of the pitching, something that isn't all that common in San Francisco. They have a shot at contending, but I think a lot has to go right for them to grab a Wild Card and so far it hasn't.
Colorado Rockies
Notable Additions: Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, Chris Iannetta
Notable Losses: Greg Holland, Tyler Chatwood, Jonathan Lucroy, Pat Neshek, Mark Reynolds
Summary: Team led by its deep rotation, but lack of offense could keep them from contending for a Wild Card.
Just like last year, the Rockies' strength lies in pitching rather than hitting, which is unusual given Coors Field. Behind sluggers Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, there are really no impact bats, with DJ LeMahieu and Ian Desmond really just average hitters and Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, Chris Iannetta, and rookie Ryan McMahon all come with questions. Gonzalez has been a great hitter for most of his career, but he struggled last season and can't be counted on to produce at his usual levels. Meanwhile, McMahon will be a fun one to watch after his huge season in the high minors, especially given the wide open path to playing time he has as the starting first baseman. On the mound, the Rockies are much better off, with Jon Gray leading a rotation full of above average starters, including Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Chad Bettis, and Tyler Anderson, plus Antonio Senzatela and Jeff Hoffman (currently hurt) in case a spot opens up. Newcomers Wade Davis, Mike Dunn, and Bryan Shaw lead the bullpen, which also includes Jake McGee, Adam Ottavino, and Chris Rusin. They're outside contenders for a Wild Card, and if they want to compete, the offense will have to scrape together just enough runs while the pitching staff holds down opponents as best as they can in Coors Field.
San Diego Padres
Notable Additions: Eric Hosmer, Chase Headley, Freddy Galvis, Tyson Ross, Chris Young
Notable Losses: Jhoulys Chacin, Yangervis Solarte, Erick Aybar, Travis Wood
Summary: Rebuilding team with a pretty decent offense but a thin pitching staff, will have some fun rookies and young players to watch
The Padres are on their way up with one of the strongest farm systems in the game, but they're not quite ready to compete yet and have a ton of young guys who will try to make an impact. They're kind of left out of national baseball media, but some of these guys are quite good. The offense revolves around franchise face Wil Myers and newcomer Eric Hosmer, with Freddy Galvis and Chase Headley also providing veteran bats. Young guys like Jose Pirela, Hunter Renfroe, Manny Margot, and Carlos Asuaje emerged last season as quality players and will look to continue that in 2018. Unfortunately, the offense did receive a blow when Alex Dickerson sprained his UCL, as he will now have to miss his second straight season. The rotation is thin, led by Clayton Richard, Dinelson Lamet, and Luis Perdomo, though Lamet hurt is elbow and will be out until at least May. Down at the bottom of the rotation, Bryan Mitchell and rookies Joey Lucchesi and Robbie Erlin look to hold it down until Lamet and Colin Rea return from injuries. The bullpen is led by star relief ace Brad Hand, with some decent arms behind him in Craig Stammen, Kirby Yates, and Japanese import Kazuhisa Makita. Having Hand is big, but otherwise, the bullpen is just about as thin as the rotation. This team will be led by its offense but should not be expected to climb much higher than .450.
Showing posts with label Season Preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season Preview. Show all posts
Sunday, April 1, 2018
Friday, March 30, 2018
Season Preview: NL Central
Division Crown Contenders: Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers
Additional Wild Card Contenders: None
Unlikely to Contend: Pirates, Reds
The race for the NL Central crown looks to be the most interesting division race in baseball, with three teams who could legitimately win. The Cubs are the favorites, retaining much of the same lineup that won them the World Series in 2016 as well as some fresh faces on the pitching staff. The Cardinals and Brewers got better as well, and it wouldn't be surprising if both NL Wild Card winners came out of this division. Neither the Cardinals' nor the Brewers' roster quite stacks up to that of the Cubs, but the difference isn't all that big and anything can happen over the course of 162 games. This will likely be the only three-way division battle in the majors. The Pirates are just beginning their own rebuild and retain plenty of their major pieces, while the Reds' rebuild is starting to bare fruit but isn't quite ready to begin moving the team upwards.
Chicago Cubs
Notable Additions: Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Brandon Morrow, Steve Cishek
Notable Losses: Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, John Lackey, Koji Uehara, Hector Rondon, Alex Avila, Jon Jay
Summary: Well-rounded team with deep roster, two star hitters in Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, and a very good rotation that will only be helped by an excellent defense. Again the team to beat in the NL Central.
The Cubs retain one of the best teams in baseball, right up there with the Nationals, Indians, and Red Sox and just behind the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers. A familiar offense that has remained largely untouched over the past couple of seasons retains the deadly duo of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo at the heart. However, behind Bryant and Rizzo, the team is really about depth over star power, as they have five guys capable of starting in the outfield and playing well (Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist) as well as one of the better backup catchers in the game in 24 year old rookie Victor Caratini. The defense should be as good as ever, with Heyward, Bryant, Javy Baez, Rizzo, Addison Russell, and Willson Contreras all carrying excellent gloves, enough to make up for Schwarber's mediocrity in left field. These great gloves will all help the pitchers play up, and the rotation looks a bit different than it did at the start of last season. Out are Jake Arrieta and John Lackey, and in their places stand Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood, pushing Mike Montgomery and Eddie Butler out of the rotation. In addition, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks remain, giving the Cubs five above average starters as well as two very competent pieces further down the depth chart. Wade Davis, Koji Uehara, and Hector Rondon are all gone from the bullpen, but Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek have joined Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., and Brian Duensing to form a very good core. The team's two main strengths are starting pitching and defense, but it's overall still a very well-rounded team that would surprise nobody by making a deep postseason run.
St. Louis Cardinals
Notable Additions: Marcell Ozuna, Miles Mikolas, Greg Holland, Luke Gregerson, Bud Norris, Jason Motte
Notable Losses: Lance Lynn, Trevor Rosenthal, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, Aledmys Diaz, Seung-Hwan Oh, Zach Duke
Summary: A very deep roster that lacks a true star, but one that can sum many, many valuable parts to make a very good team. Not quite on the same level as the Cubs, but not far behind.
The Cardinals' roster may not have as many flashy names as the Cubs, but don't count them out. They bring and offense as deep as anybody's that's not led by any one particular player, but is rather the sum of Marcell Ozuna, Jedd Gyorko, Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Kolten Wong, and co. Each of those guys can hit, and their backups are just as good. Jose Martinez may be the most underrated player in the game, coming off a season where he slashed .309/.379/.518 with 14 home runs and backed it up with high exit velocities and an overall excellent batted ball profile. Greg Garcia is just a backup as well but he gets on base at a ridiculous rate. Molina's soon-to-be backup catcher, Carson Kelly, is among the best catching prospects in the game. There's no Bryant or Rizzo, but the offense is just as deep as the Cubbies'. On the mound, it's the same story. Carlos Martinez leads a rotation that includes veterans Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright, as well as youngsters Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty, plus Japan transfer Miles Mikolas. In May, the Cards are expected to get top prospect Alex Reyes back from Tommy John surgery, and he could single handedly change the complexion of the pitching staff. The bullpen is led by newly acquired relief ace Greg Holland, but its real strength here is depth over star power, with Luke Gregerson, Tyler Lyons, Dominic Leone, Brett Cecil, and more, it's a better bullpen then people realize. The lack of a true star as well as a slightly inferior rotation sets them behind the Cubs, but after that, they're pretty much step for step with the division favorites.
Milwaukee Brewers
Notable Additions: Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Jhoulys Chacin, Boone Logan, Yovani Gallardo, Wade Miley, Matt Albers
Notable Losses: Neil Walker, Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, Lewis Brinson, Carlos Torres
Summary: Very unbalanced roster with a surplus of outfielders and a dearth of starting pitching, will be led by its offense while hoping the pitching can keep the opposition down just enough
The Brewers made quite a few big acquisitions this offseason and have a lot of talent on the roster; the problem is that it might be the most unbalanced roster in baseball. This team legitimately has six or seven guys who are capable of starting in a major league outfield, yet obviously only three can at a time. Meanwhile, the rotation is lacking to the point where it could keep them from seriously challenging the Cubs and Cardinals. We'll get to that later. This outfield includes the newly acquired Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, as well as the power hitting Domingo Santana, veteran and former MVP Ryan Braun, utility man Hernan Perez, 20-20 man Keon Broxton, and highly regarded prospect Brett Phillips. All but Phillips are starter-quality outfielders, and Phillips could be if he got the chance, but he and Broxton will start the season at AAA just due to the crazy amount of depth. Even Braun will be pushed to first base a fair amount, meaning slugger Eric Thames and the power hitting Jesus Aguilar will also have a tough time grabbing at bats. Meanwhile, Travis Shaw and Orlando Arcia will start on the left side of the infield, and the light-hitting Eric Sogard will play second base. It's a very good offense that features a ton of depth in some places, making it pretty similar to the Cubs and Cardinals. Meanwhile, the starting rotation could use some work with ace Jimmy Nelson set to miss significant time early in the season. The Crew went out and signed Jhoulys Chacin, a solid mid-rotation guy, with Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Brent Suter, and rookie Brandon Woodruff taking the other spots. It's not a terrible rotation, but when compared to the other rotations in the division, it's not hard to see how trading an outfielder or two for a pitcher would help tremendously. I would, however, like to see how Josh Hader fairs in the rotation if he ever gets his chance. The bullpen is pretty good, with Corey Knebel serving as the relief ace and Hader, Matt Albers, Boone Logan, and Jeremy Jeffress also likely to get the ball in big situations. If the Brewers can shift around their roster and make it more balanced, they are definitely a team that could contend in the NL Central and even without trades could win an NL Wild Card.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Notable Additions: Corey Dickerson, Joe Musgrove, Colin Moran, Michael Feliz, Kyle Crick, Michael Saunders
Notable Losses: Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole, Daniel Hudson, Chris Stewart
Summary: Just beginning their rebuild, pretty balanced roster without star power, very mediocre bullpen behind Felipe Rivero and George Kontos
The Pirates sold off two of their biggest pieces, Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole, but they still have a fairly balanced roster that could get them to .500. They're unlikely to contend, especially in this tough division, but they won't roll over and die either. There is no centerpiece on offense, with Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco forming the heart of the order and guys like Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, David Freese, Colin Moran, and Francisco Cervelli joining them in the lineup. Bell, Moran, and Adam Frazier are young guys to watch here. On the mound, Gerrit Cole is gone, and Ivan Nova looks like he'll be the only veteran in the rotation. Behind him, young guys like Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl, and Joe Musgrove will get starts, and if anyone falters or gets hurt, Tyler Glasnow could get another shot and Steven Brault could start as well. The bullpen is led by Felipe Rivero, one of the best relievers in the game, and George Kontos, but otherwise lacks depth and will rely on unproven relievers like Michael Feliz, Josh Smoker, and Dovydas Neverauskas. This certainly isn't a contending team, so with injuries, they could fall to the bottom of the league, but even a good season wouldn't get them much higher than .500.
Cincinnati Reds
Notable Additions: Ben Revere, Jared Hughes, David Hernandez, Vance Worley
Notable Losses: Zack Cozart, Drew Storen
Summary: Rebuilding team with some fun guys to watch in Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton, and Luis Castillo, not expected to make much noise as a team but prospects making the majors are always interesting
The Reds are a few years into their rebuild, and some of their prospects are starting to reach the majors, so like many of the other rebuilding teams, they should be fun to watch. Joey Votto, one of the game's best hitters, stands virtually alone as an impact bat on offense, with Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, and Adam Duvall providing as much protection as they can. Tucker Barnhart can swing it a little as well, and if Devin Mesoraco can bounce back, that's another valuable player behind the plate. Scott Schebler will look to repeat his 30 homer performance from last season, while prospects Jesse Winker and Phillip Ervin will look to make their mark on the big club. Meanwhile, Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza don't provide much value at the plate, but Peraza has a good glove and Hamilton is one of the best defenders in the game. The rotation is led by ace Luis Castillo, but behind him, there's not much going on in terms of established talent. Homer Bailey hasn't been effective in years, Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan combined to pitch in four games last season, and Sal Romano and Tyler Mahle are unproven. That said, DeSclafani was very good in 2016, and I'd consider Romano a breakout candidate for 2018. Mahle even threw a perfect game in the minors last season. The bullpen does have some veteran names, with Raisel Iglesias leading David Hernandez and Jared Hughes, but Amir Garrett and Kevin Shackelford could also push their way through. Overall, it's a young team that's not ready to contend, but there are some interesting guys to watch.
Additional Wild Card Contenders: None
Unlikely to Contend: Pirates, Reds
The race for the NL Central crown looks to be the most interesting division race in baseball, with three teams who could legitimately win. The Cubs are the favorites, retaining much of the same lineup that won them the World Series in 2016 as well as some fresh faces on the pitching staff. The Cardinals and Brewers got better as well, and it wouldn't be surprising if both NL Wild Card winners came out of this division. Neither the Cardinals' nor the Brewers' roster quite stacks up to that of the Cubs, but the difference isn't all that big and anything can happen over the course of 162 games. This will likely be the only three-way division battle in the majors. The Pirates are just beginning their own rebuild and retain plenty of their major pieces, while the Reds' rebuild is starting to bare fruit but isn't quite ready to begin moving the team upwards.
Chicago Cubs
Notable Additions: Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Brandon Morrow, Steve Cishek
Notable Losses: Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, John Lackey, Koji Uehara, Hector Rondon, Alex Avila, Jon Jay
Summary: Well-rounded team with deep roster, two star hitters in Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, and a very good rotation that will only be helped by an excellent defense. Again the team to beat in the NL Central.
The Cubs retain one of the best teams in baseball, right up there with the Nationals, Indians, and Red Sox and just behind the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers. A familiar offense that has remained largely untouched over the past couple of seasons retains the deadly duo of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo at the heart. However, behind Bryant and Rizzo, the team is really about depth over star power, as they have five guys capable of starting in the outfield and playing well (Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist) as well as one of the better backup catchers in the game in 24 year old rookie Victor Caratini. The defense should be as good as ever, with Heyward, Bryant, Javy Baez, Rizzo, Addison Russell, and Willson Contreras all carrying excellent gloves, enough to make up for Schwarber's mediocrity in left field. These great gloves will all help the pitchers play up, and the rotation looks a bit different than it did at the start of last season. Out are Jake Arrieta and John Lackey, and in their places stand Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood, pushing Mike Montgomery and Eddie Butler out of the rotation. In addition, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks remain, giving the Cubs five above average starters as well as two very competent pieces further down the depth chart. Wade Davis, Koji Uehara, and Hector Rondon are all gone from the bullpen, but Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek have joined Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., and Brian Duensing to form a very good core. The team's two main strengths are starting pitching and defense, but it's overall still a very well-rounded team that would surprise nobody by making a deep postseason run.
St. Louis Cardinals
Notable Additions: Marcell Ozuna, Miles Mikolas, Greg Holland, Luke Gregerson, Bud Norris, Jason Motte
Notable Losses: Lance Lynn, Trevor Rosenthal, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, Aledmys Diaz, Seung-Hwan Oh, Zach Duke
Summary: A very deep roster that lacks a true star, but one that can sum many, many valuable parts to make a very good team. Not quite on the same level as the Cubs, but not far behind.
The Cardinals' roster may not have as many flashy names as the Cubs, but don't count them out. They bring and offense as deep as anybody's that's not led by any one particular player, but is rather the sum of Marcell Ozuna, Jedd Gyorko, Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Kolten Wong, and co. Each of those guys can hit, and their backups are just as good. Jose Martinez may be the most underrated player in the game, coming off a season where he slashed .309/.379/.518 with 14 home runs and backed it up with high exit velocities and an overall excellent batted ball profile. Greg Garcia is just a backup as well but he gets on base at a ridiculous rate. Molina's soon-to-be backup catcher, Carson Kelly, is among the best catching prospects in the game. There's no Bryant or Rizzo, but the offense is just as deep as the Cubbies'. On the mound, it's the same story. Carlos Martinez leads a rotation that includes veterans Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright, as well as youngsters Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty, plus Japan transfer Miles Mikolas. In May, the Cards are expected to get top prospect Alex Reyes back from Tommy John surgery, and he could single handedly change the complexion of the pitching staff. The bullpen is led by newly acquired relief ace Greg Holland, but its real strength here is depth over star power, with Luke Gregerson, Tyler Lyons, Dominic Leone, Brett Cecil, and more, it's a better bullpen then people realize. The lack of a true star as well as a slightly inferior rotation sets them behind the Cubs, but after that, they're pretty much step for step with the division favorites.
Milwaukee Brewers
Notable Additions: Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Jhoulys Chacin, Boone Logan, Yovani Gallardo, Wade Miley, Matt Albers
Notable Losses: Neil Walker, Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, Lewis Brinson, Carlos Torres
Summary: Very unbalanced roster with a surplus of outfielders and a dearth of starting pitching, will be led by its offense while hoping the pitching can keep the opposition down just enough
The Brewers made quite a few big acquisitions this offseason and have a lot of talent on the roster; the problem is that it might be the most unbalanced roster in baseball. This team legitimately has six or seven guys who are capable of starting in a major league outfield, yet obviously only three can at a time. Meanwhile, the rotation is lacking to the point where it could keep them from seriously challenging the Cubs and Cardinals. We'll get to that later. This outfield includes the newly acquired Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, as well as the power hitting Domingo Santana, veteran and former MVP Ryan Braun, utility man Hernan Perez, 20-20 man Keon Broxton, and highly regarded prospect Brett Phillips. All but Phillips are starter-quality outfielders, and Phillips could be if he got the chance, but he and Broxton will start the season at AAA just due to the crazy amount of depth. Even Braun will be pushed to first base a fair amount, meaning slugger Eric Thames and the power hitting Jesus Aguilar will also have a tough time grabbing at bats. Meanwhile, Travis Shaw and Orlando Arcia will start on the left side of the infield, and the light-hitting Eric Sogard will play second base. It's a very good offense that features a ton of depth in some places, making it pretty similar to the Cubs and Cardinals. Meanwhile, the starting rotation could use some work with ace Jimmy Nelson set to miss significant time early in the season. The Crew went out and signed Jhoulys Chacin, a solid mid-rotation guy, with Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Brent Suter, and rookie Brandon Woodruff taking the other spots. It's not a terrible rotation, but when compared to the other rotations in the division, it's not hard to see how trading an outfielder or two for a pitcher would help tremendously. I would, however, like to see how Josh Hader fairs in the rotation if he ever gets his chance. The bullpen is pretty good, with Corey Knebel serving as the relief ace and Hader, Matt Albers, Boone Logan, and Jeremy Jeffress also likely to get the ball in big situations. If the Brewers can shift around their roster and make it more balanced, they are definitely a team that could contend in the NL Central and even without trades could win an NL Wild Card.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Notable Additions: Corey Dickerson, Joe Musgrove, Colin Moran, Michael Feliz, Kyle Crick, Michael Saunders
Notable Losses: Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole, Daniel Hudson, Chris Stewart
Summary: Just beginning their rebuild, pretty balanced roster without star power, very mediocre bullpen behind Felipe Rivero and George Kontos
The Pirates sold off two of their biggest pieces, Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole, but they still have a fairly balanced roster that could get them to .500. They're unlikely to contend, especially in this tough division, but they won't roll over and die either. There is no centerpiece on offense, with Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco forming the heart of the order and guys like Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, David Freese, Colin Moran, and Francisco Cervelli joining them in the lineup. Bell, Moran, and Adam Frazier are young guys to watch here. On the mound, Gerrit Cole is gone, and Ivan Nova looks like he'll be the only veteran in the rotation. Behind him, young guys like Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl, and Joe Musgrove will get starts, and if anyone falters or gets hurt, Tyler Glasnow could get another shot and Steven Brault could start as well. The bullpen is led by Felipe Rivero, one of the best relievers in the game, and George Kontos, but otherwise lacks depth and will rely on unproven relievers like Michael Feliz, Josh Smoker, and Dovydas Neverauskas. This certainly isn't a contending team, so with injuries, they could fall to the bottom of the league, but even a good season wouldn't get them much higher than .500.
Cincinnati Reds
Notable Additions: Ben Revere, Jared Hughes, David Hernandez, Vance Worley
Notable Losses: Zack Cozart, Drew Storen
Summary: Rebuilding team with some fun guys to watch in Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton, and Luis Castillo, not expected to make much noise as a team but prospects making the majors are always interesting
The Reds are a few years into their rebuild, and some of their prospects are starting to reach the majors, so like many of the other rebuilding teams, they should be fun to watch. Joey Votto, one of the game's best hitters, stands virtually alone as an impact bat on offense, with Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, and Adam Duvall providing as much protection as they can. Tucker Barnhart can swing it a little as well, and if Devin Mesoraco can bounce back, that's another valuable player behind the plate. Scott Schebler will look to repeat his 30 homer performance from last season, while prospects Jesse Winker and Phillip Ervin will look to make their mark on the big club. Meanwhile, Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza don't provide much value at the plate, but Peraza has a good glove and Hamilton is one of the best defenders in the game. The rotation is led by ace Luis Castillo, but behind him, there's not much going on in terms of established talent. Homer Bailey hasn't been effective in years, Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan combined to pitch in four games last season, and Sal Romano and Tyler Mahle are unproven. That said, DeSclafani was very good in 2016, and I'd consider Romano a breakout candidate for 2018. Mahle even threw a perfect game in the minors last season. The bullpen does have some veteran names, with Raisel Iglesias leading David Hernandez and Jared Hughes, but Amir Garrett and Kevin Shackelford could also push their way through. Overall, it's a young team that's not ready to contend, but there are some interesting guys to watch.
Monday, March 26, 2018
Season Preview: NL East
Division Crown Contenders: Nationals, Mets
Additional Wild Card Contenders: None
Unlikely to Contend: Phillies, Braves, Marlins
The NL East has been one of the game's weaker divisions over the past few seasons, and while that won't change in a big way in 2018, the Phillies, Braves, and even the Mets are trending up (Mets more short term than long term), with the Phillies and Braves in particular having two of the strongest farm systems in the game. That said, the Nationals have reigned in this division and it will be tough for anybody to catch them; the Mets have the best shot, in fact a better shot than many people think, but that doesn't change that the clear favorites play in the nation's capital. The NL Wild Card race as a whole looks to be very competitive this season, so if they don't catch the Nationals, it will be tough, but doable, for the Mets to crack the postseason. The Phillies and Braves aren't quite ready to grab a Wild Card in this environment, and the Marlins look like the worst team in baseball at the moment.
Washington Nationals
Notable Additions: Matt Adams, Jeremy Hellickson, Joaquin Benoit, Miguel Montero
Notable Losses: Jayson Werth, Adam Lind, Stephen Drew, Matt Albers, Oliver Perez
Summary: More or less the same team from last year, the Nationals are in that second tier just behind the "super teams" in New York, LA, and Houston, showcasing a star-studded roster with a lot of depth on offense
The Nationals' roster is largely unchanged from last season, swapping pinch hitter Adam Lind out for Matt Adams and reliever Matt Albers for Joaquin Benoit. The only glaring difference, really will be the loss of Jayson Werth, who spent the last seven seasons with the club, but his role was beginning to be reduced anyways, so it's more of an off-field loss than an on-field one. The Nationals are the Indians of the NL; they're excellent, but not quite a super-team like the Yankees, Astros, or Dodgers. The offense is led by MVP candidates Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, with guys like Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton, and a rejuvenated Ryan Zimmerman also swinging big bats. Michael A. Taylor looks to start the season as the team's center fielder, but with Victor Robles waiting in the wings, he knows he'll have to play at a high level to keep his job. Perhaps the biggest question on offense comes behind the plate, where Matt Wieters will need to bounce back offensively to keep from being a liability in the lineup. Adams, Howie Kendrick, Brian Goodwin, and Wilmer Difo add to a versatile bench. On the mound, the Nationals' front four starters look as good as anybody's in Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Tanner Roark, but the question lies in the fifth spot. A.J. Cole, Jeremy Hellickson, Erick Fedde, and Austin Voth have all competed for it, but it looks like it will go to Cole, a talented arm who has never really gotten his footing in the majors. Joe Ross is set to return late in the season, and he will be a valuable asset once he does. The bullpen return's the core trio acquired at the deadline in Sean Doolittle, Brandon Kintzler, and Ryan Madson, with Shawn Kelley and Enny Romero also looking to make an impact, as well as Benoit when he returns from a forearm injury. The roster has some holes, but it is so elite in other areas with Harper, Rendon, Scherzer, and Strasburg headlining the roster, that it still looks like one of baseball's top five teams.
New York Mets
Notable Additions: Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Anthony Swarzak, Adrian Gonzalez
Notable Losses: Neil Walker, Nori Aoki
Summary: Better team than most people realize, should be able to ride a strong rotation far enough to get into a battle for a Wild Card and nip at the Nationals' heels in the division
The Mets are a better team than they get credit for. Last year, everything went wrong, especially on the pitching staff, with pretty much everybody but Jacob deGrom missing time or having a considerably worse year than expected. This year, with nowhere to go but up in terms of luck, and with a good offseason, the Mets have perhaps their best team since the 2015 rendition that reached the World Series. Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto (once he returns), Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Travis d'Arnaud form a pretty decent group of bats, and youngsters Amed Rosario, Dom Smith, and Brandon Nimmo are up and looking for breakouts. The rotation, finally healthy aside from Jason Vargas, is the team's strong suit, starting with ace Noah Syndergaard and also including deGrom, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Steven Matz. There is also depth, with Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman waiting in the wings, plus Vargas once he returns from hand surgery. The bullpen is a bit shallower, but Jeurys Familia returns as the relief ace while Anthony Swarzak replaces Addison Reed (traded at the deadline) and A.J. Ramos comes back for his first full season in blue and orange. There are clearly soft spots on the roster, but no glaring holes, with a strong rotation leading an average offense and average bullpen. That should be enough to get them into competition for a Wild Card as well as to keep the Nationals on their toes.
Philadelphia Phillies
Notable Additions: Jake Arrieta, Carlos Santana, Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter
Notable Losses: Daniel Nava
Summary: Rapidly improving team that isn't quite there yet, but that will use 2018 as a testing ground to see which players it will use for contention in 2019. Won't win a Wild Card, but could flirt with .500.
The end of the rebuild is near, and the Phillies are just about ready to contend. It likely won't happen for another year, especially given how tough the NL Wild Card race will be this year, but don't underestimate these guys. They added Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta on hefty contracts, clearly with towards becoming competitive. On offense, Santana joins Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, and Nick Williams as they prepare to do some damage, and rookies J.P. Crawford, Jorge Alfaro, Scott Kingery, and Roman Quinn all look to make their presence known. Hernandez could find himself traded at the deadline, setting up Philadelphia's double-play combination of the future between Crawford and Kingery this year. On the mound, Arrieta and Aaron Nola lead a respectable rotation, which will also include some combination of Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Ben Lively, Zach Eflin, and Drew Hutchison. The top is much more impressive than the bottom, but there is a lot of youth there and a couple of guys will likely step up this year. The Phillies also a added Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter to the bullpen, joining Hector Neris, Luis Garcia, and Hoby Milner as core pieces there. There are definitely holes in this team; it's young, and quite a few spots on the diamond will be filled with unproven names, but the team will look to use 2018 as a spring pad into contending in 2019.
Atlanta Braves
Notable Additions: Chris Stewart, Peter Moylan, Anibal Sanchez
Notable Losses: R.A. Dickey, Matt Adams, Jim Johnson, Jason Motte
Summary: About a year behind the Phillies in their rebuild, the Braves will have a ton of talent on their farm and it's just beginning to reach the majors. Expect some intermittent winning streaks, but individual players will be more fun to watch than the team as a whole for now.
It was a quiet offseason in Atlanta, but as with Philadelphia, things are changing. The Braves' rebuild may be about a year behind that of the Phillies, but their farm system is beginning to bear fruit and some fresh faces are beginning to get more playing time. Already, Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies, the team's double play duo of the future, has begun playing together in the bigs, and the 23 year old Rio Ruiz also looks to get reps at third base until Johan Camargo comes back in a few weeks. Around the time Ruiz comes out of the everyday lineup, though, baseball's top prospect, Ronald Acuna, will get his promotion and compete for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. Ender Inciarte, Tyler Flowers, Nick Markakis, and Preston Tucker also bring playable bats, and all of it revolves around slugger Freddie Freeman. It's not an enviable lineup this year, but once Acuna, Swanson, and Albies make all their early-career adjustments, it should be one of the better offenses in baseball. The rotation has a similar story to the offense, only a bit more extreme. Led by Julio Teheran and also consisting of Mike Foltynewicz, Brandon McCarthy, Sean Newcombe, and Anibal Sanchez, it's pretty mediocre, but as with the offense, prospects are on the way. Luiz Gohara will return in May, and Newcombe is a solid prospect in his own right. Down on the farm, guys like Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Kyle Wright, Max Fried, Joey Wentz, Ian Anderson, Bryse Wilson, and Kyle Muller, among others, combine with Gohara and Newcombe to form possibly the best collection of pitching prospects ever seen, setting up what is likely to be a mega-rotation reminiscent of Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine in the 1990's. However, we're still a few years from that, so Braves fans will just have to be patient. The bullpen lacks elite arms but does have a lot of depth due to the Braves' youth, led by Arodys Vizcaino and continuing with A.J. Minter (yet another pitching prospect) and Jose Ramirez. They won't be competing for a playoff berth, but the young guys will be a lot of fun to watch.
Miami Marlins
Notable Additions: Starlin Castro, Cameron Maybin, Lewis Brinson
Notable Losses: Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Dee Gordon, Ichiro Suzuki, Vance Worley
Summary: The full-blown rebuild is in the midst, leaving the Marlins with very few proven pieces and a club that could end up with the worst record in the majors. Offense is ahead of the pitching at this point, for whatever that's worth.
The Marlins went into a full fire sale this offseason, selling off the entire outfield plus second baseman Dee Gordon. It puts them in a pretty rough position when it comes to 2018, but their farm system did jump from arguably the worst in baseball to something almost resembling average. There's work to do, as J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour, and Starlin Castro might be on the chopping block next, so this team could tank further. For now, Realmuto, Bour, Castro, and Derek Dietrich look to make up the diminished offensive core, with prospects Lewis Brinson, Brian Anderson, and Magneuris Sierra looking to take advantage of open opportunities. Brinson in particular has a very good shot at competing for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. The rotation is just as young, led by a pretty good arm in Jose Urena followed by a bunch of pitchers who are either hurt (Dan Straily, Wei-Yin Chen) or unproven (Odrisamer Despaigne, Jacob Turner). The bullpen is in no better a position, led by Brad Ziegler, Kyle Barraclaugh, and Drew Steckenrider and lacking any kind of depth behind them. It shouldn't be news to anybody that the Marlins are likely to finish last in the division, and quite possible last in the majors.
Additional Wild Card Contenders: None
Unlikely to Contend: Phillies, Braves, Marlins
The NL East has been one of the game's weaker divisions over the past few seasons, and while that won't change in a big way in 2018, the Phillies, Braves, and even the Mets are trending up (Mets more short term than long term), with the Phillies and Braves in particular having two of the strongest farm systems in the game. That said, the Nationals have reigned in this division and it will be tough for anybody to catch them; the Mets have the best shot, in fact a better shot than many people think, but that doesn't change that the clear favorites play in the nation's capital. The NL Wild Card race as a whole looks to be very competitive this season, so if they don't catch the Nationals, it will be tough, but doable, for the Mets to crack the postseason. The Phillies and Braves aren't quite ready to grab a Wild Card in this environment, and the Marlins look like the worst team in baseball at the moment.
Washington Nationals
Notable Additions: Matt Adams, Jeremy Hellickson, Joaquin Benoit, Miguel Montero
Notable Losses: Jayson Werth, Adam Lind, Stephen Drew, Matt Albers, Oliver Perez
Summary: More or less the same team from last year, the Nationals are in that second tier just behind the "super teams" in New York, LA, and Houston, showcasing a star-studded roster with a lot of depth on offense
The Nationals' roster is largely unchanged from last season, swapping pinch hitter Adam Lind out for Matt Adams and reliever Matt Albers for Joaquin Benoit. The only glaring difference, really will be the loss of Jayson Werth, who spent the last seven seasons with the club, but his role was beginning to be reduced anyways, so it's more of an off-field loss than an on-field one. The Nationals are the Indians of the NL; they're excellent, but not quite a super-team like the Yankees, Astros, or Dodgers. The offense is led by MVP candidates Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, with guys like Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton, and a rejuvenated Ryan Zimmerman also swinging big bats. Michael A. Taylor looks to start the season as the team's center fielder, but with Victor Robles waiting in the wings, he knows he'll have to play at a high level to keep his job. Perhaps the biggest question on offense comes behind the plate, where Matt Wieters will need to bounce back offensively to keep from being a liability in the lineup. Adams, Howie Kendrick, Brian Goodwin, and Wilmer Difo add to a versatile bench. On the mound, the Nationals' front four starters look as good as anybody's in Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Tanner Roark, but the question lies in the fifth spot. A.J. Cole, Jeremy Hellickson, Erick Fedde, and Austin Voth have all competed for it, but it looks like it will go to Cole, a talented arm who has never really gotten his footing in the majors. Joe Ross is set to return late in the season, and he will be a valuable asset once he does. The bullpen return's the core trio acquired at the deadline in Sean Doolittle, Brandon Kintzler, and Ryan Madson, with Shawn Kelley and Enny Romero also looking to make an impact, as well as Benoit when he returns from a forearm injury. The roster has some holes, but it is so elite in other areas with Harper, Rendon, Scherzer, and Strasburg headlining the roster, that it still looks like one of baseball's top five teams.
New York Mets
Notable Additions: Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Anthony Swarzak, Adrian Gonzalez
Notable Losses: Neil Walker, Nori Aoki
Summary: Better team than most people realize, should be able to ride a strong rotation far enough to get into a battle for a Wild Card and nip at the Nationals' heels in the division
The Mets are a better team than they get credit for. Last year, everything went wrong, especially on the pitching staff, with pretty much everybody but Jacob deGrom missing time or having a considerably worse year than expected. This year, with nowhere to go but up in terms of luck, and with a good offseason, the Mets have perhaps their best team since the 2015 rendition that reached the World Series. Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto (once he returns), Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Travis d'Arnaud form a pretty decent group of bats, and youngsters Amed Rosario, Dom Smith, and Brandon Nimmo are up and looking for breakouts. The rotation, finally healthy aside from Jason Vargas, is the team's strong suit, starting with ace Noah Syndergaard and also including deGrom, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Steven Matz. There is also depth, with Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman waiting in the wings, plus Vargas once he returns from hand surgery. The bullpen is a bit shallower, but Jeurys Familia returns as the relief ace while Anthony Swarzak replaces Addison Reed (traded at the deadline) and A.J. Ramos comes back for his first full season in blue and orange. There are clearly soft spots on the roster, but no glaring holes, with a strong rotation leading an average offense and average bullpen. That should be enough to get them into competition for a Wild Card as well as to keep the Nationals on their toes.
Philadelphia Phillies
Notable Additions: Jake Arrieta, Carlos Santana, Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter
Notable Losses: Daniel Nava
Summary: Rapidly improving team that isn't quite there yet, but that will use 2018 as a testing ground to see which players it will use for contention in 2019. Won't win a Wild Card, but could flirt with .500.
The end of the rebuild is near, and the Phillies are just about ready to contend. It likely won't happen for another year, especially given how tough the NL Wild Card race will be this year, but don't underestimate these guys. They added Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta on hefty contracts, clearly with towards becoming competitive. On offense, Santana joins Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, and Nick Williams as they prepare to do some damage, and rookies J.P. Crawford, Jorge Alfaro, Scott Kingery, and Roman Quinn all look to make their presence known. Hernandez could find himself traded at the deadline, setting up Philadelphia's double-play combination of the future between Crawford and Kingery this year. On the mound, Arrieta and Aaron Nola lead a respectable rotation, which will also include some combination of Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Ben Lively, Zach Eflin, and Drew Hutchison. The top is much more impressive than the bottom, but there is a lot of youth there and a couple of guys will likely step up this year. The Phillies also a added Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter to the bullpen, joining Hector Neris, Luis Garcia, and Hoby Milner as core pieces there. There are definitely holes in this team; it's young, and quite a few spots on the diamond will be filled with unproven names, but the team will look to use 2018 as a spring pad into contending in 2019.
Atlanta Braves
Notable Additions: Chris Stewart, Peter Moylan, Anibal Sanchez
Notable Losses: R.A. Dickey, Matt Adams, Jim Johnson, Jason Motte
Summary: About a year behind the Phillies in their rebuild, the Braves will have a ton of talent on their farm and it's just beginning to reach the majors. Expect some intermittent winning streaks, but individual players will be more fun to watch than the team as a whole for now.
It was a quiet offseason in Atlanta, but as with Philadelphia, things are changing. The Braves' rebuild may be about a year behind that of the Phillies, but their farm system is beginning to bear fruit and some fresh faces are beginning to get more playing time. Already, Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies, the team's double play duo of the future, has begun playing together in the bigs, and the 23 year old Rio Ruiz also looks to get reps at third base until Johan Camargo comes back in a few weeks. Around the time Ruiz comes out of the everyday lineup, though, baseball's top prospect, Ronald Acuna, will get his promotion and compete for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. Ender Inciarte, Tyler Flowers, Nick Markakis, and Preston Tucker also bring playable bats, and all of it revolves around slugger Freddie Freeman. It's not an enviable lineup this year, but once Acuna, Swanson, and Albies make all their early-career adjustments, it should be one of the better offenses in baseball. The rotation has a similar story to the offense, only a bit more extreme. Led by Julio Teheran and also consisting of Mike Foltynewicz, Brandon McCarthy, Sean Newcombe, and Anibal Sanchez, it's pretty mediocre, but as with the offense, prospects are on the way. Luiz Gohara will return in May, and Newcombe is a solid prospect in his own right. Down on the farm, guys like Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Kyle Wright, Max Fried, Joey Wentz, Ian Anderson, Bryse Wilson, and Kyle Muller, among others, combine with Gohara and Newcombe to form possibly the best collection of pitching prospects ever seen, setting up what is likely to be a mega-rotation reminiscent of Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine in the 1990's. However, we're still a few years from that, so Braves fans will just have to be patient. The bullpen lacks elite arms but does have a lot of depth due to the Braves' youth, led by Arodys Vizcaino and continuing with A.J. Minter (yet another pitching prospect) and Jose Ramirez. They won't be competing for a playoff berth, but the young guys will be a lot of fun to watch.
Miami Marlins
Notable Additions: Starlin Castro, Cameron Maybin, Lewis Brinson
Notable Losses: Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Dee Gordon, Ichiro Suzuki, Vance Worley
Summary: The full-blown rebuild is in the midst, leaving the Marlins with very few proven pieces and a club that could end up with the worst record in the majors. Offense is ahead of the pitching at this point, for whatever that's worth.
The Marlins went into a full fire sale this offseason, selling off the entire outfield plus second baseman Dee Gordon. It puts them in a pretty rough position when it comes to 2018, but their farm system did jump from arguably the worst in baseball to something almost resembling average. There's work to do, as J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour, and Starlin Castro might be on the chopping block next, so this team could tank further. For now, Realmuto, Bour, Castro, and Derek Dietrich look to make up the diminished offensive core, with prospects Lewis Brinson, Brian Anderson, and Magneuris Sierra looking to take advantage of open opportunities. Brinson in particular has a very good shot at competing for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. The rotation is just as young, led by a pretty good arm in Jose Urena followed by a bunch of pitchers who are either hurt (Dan Straily, Wei-Yin Chen) or unproven (Odrisamer Despaigne, Jacob Turner). The bullpen is in no better a position, led by Brad Ziegler, Kyle Barraclaugh, and Drew Steckenrider and lacking any kind of depth behind them. It shouldn't be news to anybody that the Marlins are likely to finish last in the division, and quite possible last in the majors.
Sunday, March 25, 2018
Season Preview: AL West
Division Crown Contenders: Astros
Additional Wild Card Contenders: Angels, Mariners
Unlikely to Contend: Athletics, Rangers
The division race itself won't be too fun to watch, as the Astros are fielding a super team and in all likelihood will have the race all but won by the trade deadline. However, the Angels and Mariners both have valid Wild Card hopes, and this division could have four teams finish above .500 if either the A's or Rangers get hot. The Angels in particular have improved significantly, and at this point have a very good shot at a Wild Card. The Mariners aren't particularly special, but they're good enough, especially behind that deep offense, and there will be a lot of scraping and clawing in the middle of the division. The A's are improved and the Rangers have taken a step back, so it's tough to tell who will end up in the cellar. Look forward to some fun races, even if the Astros are miles ahead of everyone else.
Houston Astros
Notable Additions: Gerrit Cole, Joe Smith, Hector Rondon
Notable Losses: Carlos Beltran, Cameron Maybin, Joe Musgrove, Mike Fiers, Luke Gregerson, Michael Feliz, Tyler Clippard, Francisco Liriano
Summary: One of the best offenses ever built? Check. Dominant starting rotation one through five with backup plans? Check. Good bullpen? Check. Good luck beating the Astros this year.
It may look like the Astros lost a lot of players, but compared to the quality of the players they picked up, this team is definitely improved, which is a scary thought considering they won the World Series last season. There really are no holes on this roster; with baseball's best offense (sorry Yankees) and arguably baseball's best rotation, as well as a solid bullpen. Let's start with the offense: between Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, any of whom could win the AL MVP Award this year, as well as Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis, Brian McCann, and Yuli Gurriel, this team can hurt you one through nine in the lineup. Even on the bench, with Jake Marisnick, J.D. Davis, Tyler White, and Derek Fisher, you're going to have a tough time getting outs at any point in the game. As fun as the Aaron Judge/Giancarlo Stanton/Gary Sanchez trio will be to watch in New York, the Altuve/Correa/Springer trio in Houston is nearly as good, and they provide much more defensive value to boot. On the mound, Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton fill out a very good rotation, so even if the offense goes quiet for a day, they'll still be in a position to win. Behind them, Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh could easily step in for extended periods of time in the case of injury. Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, and Will Harris form one of the better bullpen trios in the game, and Hector Rondon and Joe Smith are very nice additions in their own right. Devenski in particular is one of the most valuable relievers in the game, with the ability to go multiple innings at an extremely high level of effectiveness. This roster is not only well rounded but elite in all regards, basically the Mike Trout of baseball teams. It would be a major upset to see them fall anywhere short of the ALCS.
Los Angeles Angels
Notable Additions: Shohei Ohtani, Zack Cozart, Ian Kinsler, Rene Rivera, Chris Young, Chris Carter
Notable Losses: Huston Street, Yusmeiro Petit, Ricky Nolasco, Jesse Chavez, Bud Norris, C.J. Cron, Brandon Phillips, Yunel Escobar, Ben Revere
Summary: High upside team with Mike Trout/Shohei Ohtani looking to be one of the most exciting pairs of teammates, rebuilt offense with strong defense but questionable pitching staff with a ton of talent and not much depth or certainty
The Angels struck gold by adding two way star Shohei Ohtani, and that set off an offseason in which they shored up the whole offense to get ready for at least a Wild Card run. They won't catch the Astros, but the Angels are as good on paper as the Red Sox and Twins and could make a lot of noise if they stay healthy. The offense, which was shallow last season, added Ohtani at DH, Ian Kinsler at second base, Zack Cozart at third, and Chris Carter, Chris Young, and Rene Rivera to the bench while only losing C.J. Cron, Brandon Phillips, Yunel Escobar, and Ben Revere. In addition to the newcomers, it goes without saying that Mike Trout is the best player in the game, and Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun, and Andrelton Simmons have good bats as well. Interestingly, defense will be a strong suit for the team, with Simmons, Trout, Cozart, and Martin Maldonado carrying excellent gloves, and Ian Kinsler showing the ability to flash the leather as well. The rotation, however, could perform at any number of levels. The talent is high, but of the six possible starters, only one topped 90 innings last season and none topped 150 innings. Ace Garrett Richards has been as dominant as anybody on a per-inning basis, but has been limited to twelve starts over the past two seasons. Andrew Heaney has made six in the same span. Tyler Skaggs reached the majors in 2012 but has never made more than 18 starts in a season. Matt Shoemaker missed half of last season. Of course, Ohtani is a complete wild card, and even he missed much of the season in Japan. Only J.C. Ramirez (147.1 innings) actually pitched what could be called a full season. There's lots of talent there, especially in Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, and Ohtani, but absolutely nothing is guaranteed with any of those guys. Lastly, the bullpen is a little bit of a jumble, as it lost many key pieces from 2017, with Blake Parker, Keynan Middleton, and Cam Bedrosian left to form the heart, definitely making the bullpen a weak spot. Overall, the Angels have a lot of upside, especially with Ohtani, but the pitching staff has a lot of holes that could become glaring if a few injuries occur in the starting rotation.
Seattle Mariners
Notable Additions: Ichiro Suzuki, Dee Gordon, Ryon Healy, Juan Nicasio
Notable Losses: Yonder Alonso, Danny Valencia, Jarrod Dyson, Yovani Gallardo, Emilio Pagan
Summary: Unlike most Mariners teams, this one will get by with a strong, balanced offense while hoping a mediocre pitching staff can hold opponents down just enough
The Mariners are kind of stuck in that not really competing but not rebuilding area, which will see them field a team in the .500 range but not one quite good enough to make a deep postseason run. It was a relatively quiet offseason by Jerry DiPoto standards, as he made just two notable trades and signed a couple of free agents. The offense actually does look about as balanced as it has ever been, with Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano forming the heart and Jean Segura, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, Mike Zunino, newcomers Dee Gordon and Ryon Healy, and returnee Ichiro Suzuki playing support. It's not elite, but one through nine (OK maybe one through eight, but we love Ichiro) can hurt you, especially if Haniger can build on last year's breakout. This has not been typical of Mariners teams in the past. The rotation's success may hinge around face of the franchise Felix Hernandez, who we all remember as one of the best pitchers in baseball from 2009-2014 but who has seen his ERA rise from 2.14 in 2014 to 3.53 in 2015, 3.82 in 2016, and 4.36 in 2017. Since he made his debut less than four months after his 19th birthday, it's easy to forget that he's still doesn't turn 32 until April, so hopefully he can turn it around. Behind him, James Paxton was quietly one of the better arms in the game last year and could even improve further this season, and Mike Leake is a reliable veteran. However, Ariel Miranda, Marco Gonzales, and Erasmo Ramirez are all wild cards, making the rotation a weak spot overall. Edwin Diaz, Juan Nicasio, and Nick Vincent headline what looks more or less like an average bullpen, especially with David Phelps set to miss the season.
Oakland Athletics
Notable Additions: Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Buchter, Emilio Pagan, Yusmeiro Petit, Brett Anderson
Notable Losses: Ryon Healy, Jesse Hahn, John Axford, Chris Carter
Summary: Not quite good enough to contend yet, but the A's got better and have a deep roster filled with guys looking to make impressions, so don't expect them to roll over and play .400 ball
Like everybody above them in this division, the A's got better this offseason, and while they likely won't contend, in the words of MLB.com writer Mike Petriello, they'll be "interesting." Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, and Marcus Semien are back to lead an almost-average offense (and I mean that as a compliment, considering where they were last year), and Stephen Piscotty came over from the Cardinals to add more support. Additionally, prospects like Franklin Barreto, Renato Nunez, and Dustin Fowler look ready to step up, just as Olson and Matt Chapman did last season. Think of them as the White Sox of the AL Central. On the mound, there is no standout arm, but 27 year old Kendall Graveman is the elder statesman in the rotation as everybody comes into the season with something to prove. Losing Jharel Cotton to Tommy John surgery was big, but behind Graveman, they still have Sean Manaea, Daniel Mengden, Andrew Triggs, and Daniel Gossett, some of whom were quietly pretty good last season. Depending on how he pitches, top prospect A.J. Puk could be up to contribute as well later in the season. The bullpen has seen almost a complete makeover; the only relievers on both the 2016 and the 2018 teams are Liam Hendricks, Ryan Dull, and Danny Coulombe. Push it back to the start of the 2015 season, and you have 100% turnover. Blake Treinen, Ryan Buchter, and Emilio Pagan look to take the lead, with Chris Hatcher, Yusmeiro Petit, and Santiago Casilla looking to play big roles as well. What this team lacks in star power it makes up for in depth; they won't contend, but they'll be interesting.
Texas Rangers
Notable Additions: Mike Minor, Doug Fister, Jesse Chavez, Tim Lincecum
Notable Losses: Andrew Cashner, Carlos Gomez, Mike Napoli, Miguel Gonzalez, Tyson Ross
Summary: Team on the downswing, lacking depth on both offense and in the rotation, but a deep bullpen and a few nice pieces around the roster should be enough to at least make them relevant.
The Rangers were the only team in the AL West to get worse this offseason, and while they still have a pretty good team, they've probably fallen behind everybody else in the division. There is no centerpiece on offense, though with veteran Adrian Beltre and go-big-or-go-home Joey Gallo making up the top two bats, and Nomar Mazara, Elvis Andrus, and Shin-Soo Choo also looking to contribute on a high level, they do have something to work with. It's a pretty shallow offense overall, not typical for the Rangers, though it will be interesting to see how Ryan Rua performs with regular playing time. The rotation isn't much better, led by Cole Hamels, Matt Moore, Doug Fister, Martin Perez, and Mike Minor, guys who all have had success in the past but who all have questions heading into 2018 (even Hamels posted an ERA north of 4.00 last season). The bullpen does look like the lone strong spot for this team, because even without a true relief ace, the combination of Alex Claudio, Matt Bush, Jake Diekman, and Keone Kela looks like a good base for a very deep collection of arms. If Tim Lincecum takes well to a transition to the bullpen, it could be even better. Between Beltre, Gallo, Hamels, and the bullpen, the Rangers should have just enough going for them to hang around, but not enough to make much noise.
Additional Wild Card Contenders: Angels, Mariners
Unlikely to Contend: Athletics, Rangers
The division race itself won't be too fun to watch, as the Astros are fielding a super team and in all likelihood will have the race all but won by the trade deadline. However, the Angels and Mariners both have valid Wild Card hopes, and this division could have four teams finish above .500 if either the A's or Rangers get hot. The Angels in particular have improved significantly, and at this point have a very good shot at a Wild Card. The Mariners aren't particularly special, but they're good enough, especially behind that deep offense, and there will be a lot of scraping and clawing in the middle of the division. The A's are improved and the Rangers have taken a step back, so it's tough to tell who will end up in the cellar. Look forward to some fun races, even if the Astros are miles ahead of everyone else.
Houston Astros
Notable Additions: Gerrit Cole, Joe Smith, Hector Rondon
Notable Losses: Carlos Beltran, Cameron Maybin, Joe Musgrove, Mike Fiers, Luke Gregerson, Michael Feliz, Tyler Clippard, Francisco Liriano
Summary: One of the best offenses ever built? Check. Dominant starting rotation one through five with backup plans? Check. Good bullpen? Check. Good luck beating the Astros this year.
It may look like the Astros lost a lot of players, but compared to the quality of the players they picked up, this team is definitely improved, which is a scary thought considering they won the World Series last season. There really are no holes on this roster; with baseball's best offense (sorry Yankees) and arguably baseball's best rotation, as well as a solid bullpen. Let's start with the offense: between Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, any of whom could win the AL MVP Award this year, as well as Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis, Brian McCann, and Yuli Gurriel, this team can hurt you one through nine in the lineup. Even on the bench, with Jake Marisnick, J.D. Davis, Tyler White, and Derek Fisher, you're going to have a tough time getting outs at any point in the game. As fun as the Aaron Judge/Giancarlo Stanton/Gary Sanchez trio will be to watch in New York, the Altuve/Correa/Springer trio in Houston is nearly as good, and they provide much more defensive value to boot. On the mound, Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton fill out a very good rotation, so even if the offense goes quiet for a day, they'll still be in a position to win. Behind them, Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh could easily step in for extended periods of time in the case of injury. Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, and Will Harris form one of the better bullpen trios in the game, and Hector Rondon and Joe Smith are very nice additions in their own right. Devenski in particular is one of the most valuable relievers in the game, with the ability to go multiple innings at an extremely high level of effectiveness. This roster is not only well rounded but elite in all regards, basically the Mike Trout of baseball teams. It would be a major upset to see them fall anywhere short of the ALCS.
Los Angeles Angels
Notable Additions: Shohei Ohtani, Zack Cozart, Ian Kinsler, Rene Rivera, Chris Young, Chris Carter
Notable Losses: Huston Street, Yusmeiro Petit, Ricky Nolasco, Jesse Chavez, Bud Norris, C.J. Cron, Brandon Phillips, Yunel Escobar, Ben Revere
Summary: High upside team with Mike Trout/Shohei Ohtani looking to be one of the most exciting pairs of teammates, rebuilt offense with strong defense but questionable pitching staff with a ton of talent and not much depth or certainty
The Angels struck gold by adding two way star Shohei Ohtani, and that set off an offseason in which they shored up the whole offense to get ready for at least a Wild Card run. They won't catch the Astros, but the Angels are as good on paper as the Red Sox and Twins and could make a lot of noise if they stay healthy. The offense, which was shallow last season, added Ohtani at DH, Ian Kinsler at second base, Zack Cozart at third, and Chris Carter, Chris Young, and Rene Rivera to the bench while only losing C.J. Cron, Brandon Phillips, Yunel Escobar, and Ben Revere. In addition to the newcomers, it goes without saying that Mike Trout is the best player in the game, and Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun, and Andrelton Simmons have good bats as well. Interestingly, defense will be a strong suit for the team, with Simmons, Trout, Cozart, and Martin Maldonado carrying excellent gloves, and Ian Kinsler showing the ability to flash the leather as well. The rotation, however, could perform at any number of levels. The talent is high, but of the six possible starters, only one topped 90 innings last season and none topped 150 innings. Ace Garrett Richards has been as dominant as anybody on a per-inning basis, but has been limited to twelve starts over the past two seasons. Andrew Heaney has made six in the same span. Tyler Skaggs reached the majors in 2012 but has never made more than 18 starts in a season. Matt Shoemaker missed half of last season. Of course, Ohtani is a complete wild card, and even he missed much of the season in Japan. Only J.C. Ramirez (147.1 innings) actually pitched what could be called a full season. There's lots of talent there, especially in Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, and Ohtani, but absolutely nothing is guaranteed with any of those guys. Lastly, the bullpen is a little bit of a jumble, as it lost many key pieces from 2017, with Blake Parker, Keynan Middleton, and Cam Bedrosian left to form the heart, definitely making the bullpen a weak spot. Overall, the Angels have a lot of upside, especially with Ohtani, but the pitching staff has a lot of holes that could become glaring if a few injuries occur in the starting rotation.
Seattle Mariners
Notable Additions: Ichiro Suzuki, Dee Gordon, Ryon Healy, Juan Nicasio
Notable Losses: Yonder Alonso, Danny Valencia, Jarrod Dyson, Yovani Gallardo, Emilio Pagan
Summary: Unlike most Mariners teams, this one will get by with a strong, balanced offense while hoping a mediocre pitching staff can hold opponents down just enough
The Mariners are kind of stuck in that not really competing but not rebuilding area, which will see them field a team in the .500 range but not one quite good enough to make a deep postseason run. It was a relatively quiet offseason by Jerry DiPoto standards, as he made just two notable trades and signed a couple of free agents. The offense actually does look about as balanced as it has ever been, with Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano forming the heart and Jean Segura, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, Mike Zunino, newcomers Dee Gordon and Ryon Healy, and returnee Ichiro Suzuki playing support. It's not elite, but one through nine (OK maybe one through eight, but we love Ichiro) can hurt you, especially if Haniger can build on last year's breakout. This has not been typical of Mariners teams in the past. The rotation's success may hinge around face of the franchise Felix Hernandez, who we all remember as one of the best pitchers in baseball from 2009-2014 but who has seen his ERA rise from 2.14 in 2014 to 3.53 in 2015, 3.82 in 2016, and 4.36 in 2017. Since he made his debut less than four months after his 19th birthday, it's easy to forget that he's still doesn't turn 32 until April, so hopefully he can turn it around. Behind him, James Paxton was quietly one of the better arms in the game last year and could even improve further this season, and Mike Leake is a reliable veteran. However, Ariel Miranda, Marco Gonzales, and Erasmo Ramirez are all wild cards, making the rotation a weak spot overall. Edwin Diaz, Juan Nicasio, and Nick Vincent headline what looks more or less like an average bullpen, especially with David Phelps set to miss the season.
Oakland Athletics
Notable Additions: Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Buchter, Emilio Pagan, Yusmeiro Petit, Brett Anderson
Notable Losses: Ryon Healy, Jesse Hahn, John Axford, Chris Carter
Summary: Not quite good enough to contend yet, but the A's got better and have a deep roster filled with guys looking to make impressions, so don't expect them to roll over and play .400 ball
Like everybody above them in this division, the A's got better this offseason, and while they likely won't contend, in the words of MLB.com writer Mike Petriello, they'll be "interesting." Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, and Marcus Semien are back to lead an almost-average offense (and I mean that as a compliment, considering where they were last year), and Stephen Piscotty came over from the Cardinals to add more support. Additionally, prospects like Franklin Barreto, Renato Nunez, and Dustin Fowler look ready to step up, just as Olson and Matt Chapman did last season. Think of them as the White Sox of the AL Central. On the mound, there is no standout arm, but 27 year old Kendall Graveman is the elder statesman in the rotation as everybody comes into the season with something to prove. Losing Jharel Cotton to Tommy John surgery was big, but behind Graveman, they still have Sean Manaea, Daniel Mengden, Andrew Triggs, and Daniel Gossett, some of whom were quietly pretty good last season. Depending on how he pitches, top prospect A.J. Puk could be up to contribute as well later in the season. The bullpen has seen almost a complete makeover; the only relievers on both the 2016 and the 2018 teams are Liam Hendricks, Ryan Dull, and Danny Coulombe. Push it back to the start of the 2015 season, and you have 100% turnover. Blake Treinen, Ryan Buchter, and Emilio Pagan look to take the lead, with Chris Hatcher, Yusmeiro Petit, and Santiago Casilla looking to play big roles as well. What this team lacks in star power it makes up for in depth; they won't contend, but they'll be interesting.
Texas Rangers
Notable Additions: Mike Minor, Doug Fister, Jesse Chavez, Tim Lincecum
Notable Losses: Andrew Cashner, Carlos Gomez, Mike Napoli, Miguel Gonzalez, Tyson Ross
Summary: Team on the downswing, lacking depth on both offense and in the rotation, but a deep bullpen and a few nice pieces around the roster should be enough to at least make them relevant.
The Rangers were the only team in the AL West to get worse this offseason, and while they still have a pretty good team, they've probably fallen behind everybody else in the division. There is no centerpiece on offense, though with veteran Adrian Beltre and go-big-or-go-home Joey Gallo making up the top two bats, and Nomar Mazara, Elvis Andrus, and Shin-Soo Choo also looking to contribute on a high level, they do have something to work with. It's a pretty shallow offense overall, not typical for the Rangers, though it will be interesting to see how Ryan Rua performs with regular playing time. The rotation isn't much better, led by Cole Hamels, Matt Moore, Doug Fister, Martin Perez, and Mike Minor, guys who all have had success in the past but who all have questions heading into 2018 (even Hamels posted an ERA north of 4.00 last season). The bullpen does look like the lone strong spot for this team, because even without a true relief ace, the combination of Alex Claudio, Matt Bush, Jake Diekman, and Keone Kela looks like a good base for a very deep collection of arms. If Tim Lincecum takes well to a transition to the bullpen, it could be even better. Between Beltre, Gallo, Hamels, and the bullpen, the Rangers should have just enough going for them to hang around, but not enough to make much noise.
Friday, March 23, 2018
Season Preview: AL Central
Division Crown Contenders: Indians, Twins
Unlikely to Contend: White Sox, Royals, Tigers
Like most divisions this year, the AL Central has a clear favorite, and in this case it's the Cleveland Indians. It's not that the Indians are necessarily on the same level as the Yankees or Astros – I think they actually peaked in 2016 – but that the division is overall pretty weak as usual and that they are the only real powerhouse in the division. The Twins had a great offseason and have a better chance at catching the Indians than most people think, but it doesn't change the fact that all smart bets would be on Cleveland. I do think the Twins have a very good chance at capturing a Wild Card, and it'll be a fun three-way battle between them, the Angels, and whoever is in second place between the Red Sox and Yankees. The White Sox will be a fun team to watch, given that the fruits of their rebuild are now beginning to reach the majors, and some of them are ready to make a serious impact. Down at the bottom, the Royals and Tigers look unlikely to make much noise, given the personnel losses suffered in Kansas City and the rebuild occurring in Detroit.
Cleveland Indians
Notable Additions: Yonder Alonso, Rajai Davis, Carlos Torres
Notable Losses: Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson, Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, Boone Logan
Summary: A very good team that isn't quite a super team, but they can hold their own against the league powerhouses with a multitude of big bats and high level arms.
The Indians lost their fair share of players this offseason, most notably on offense and in the bullpen. They were able to replace Carlos Santana with Yonder Alonso and Austin Jackson with Rajai Davis, but the offense will otherwise lean heavily on a bounce-back from Michael Brantley if it wants to be as good as last year's. Fortunately, having a healthy Brantley could be better than any free agent addition, as he has played just 101 games over the past two seasons but was worth 9.6 fWAR from 2014-2015 when healthy. Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, and the aforementioned Alonso form a very good core for the lineup with a healthy Brantley, and a breakout from Bradley Zimmer could be icing on the cake for a very good team. They do lack some depth though, as I would not be too confident in a bench made up of Brandon Guyer, Tyler Naquin, Giovanny Urshela, Yan Gomes, and Francisco Mejia, especially in the inevitable case of injuries when one or more will need to step up. On the mound, the rotation looks as good as ever, with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin, and Mike Clevinger holding down the fort until Danny Salazar returns from a shoulder injury. The bullpen did take heavy losses, losing Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, and Boone Logan, all productive relievers, while replacing it with an inferior contingent of Carlos Torres, Matt Belisle, Craig Breslow, and Neil Ramirez. That said, Cody Allen and Andrew Miller form one of the best one-two bullpen punches in baseball, and Dan Otero is another high-level arm. This team has some holes, so I wouldn't classify it as a super team, but they're primed for another deep postseason run.
Minnesota Twins
Notable Additions: Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke, Logan Morrison, Erick Aybar
Notable Losses: Hector Santiago, Glen Perkins, Bartolo Colon, Matt Belisle
Summary: Extremely improved team with balanced offense and rotation, lack star power but will contend for a Wild Card spot
The Twins look like they'll be one of the most improved teams of 2018. A very good offseason saw them lose no big pieces, save for Glen Perkins if only because of his service time, but plenty of cost effective additions. Logan Morrison adds a 30 homer bat to an offense that already has some nice pieces in Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Joe Mauer, and Byron Buxton, who doubles as arguably baseball's best defensive outfielder. Losing Jorge Polanco for half the season hurts, but the team has a deep lineup with quite a few guys who are capable of stepping up into larger roles if necessary. It doesn't quite match up with Cleveland's offense, but it's not blown out of the water either. On the mound, Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn are welcome additions to slot in with Jose Berrios, Ervin Santana, and Kyle Gibson, and the Twins do have a few arms in the high minors that could step in if necessary. Again, it lacks the true ace the Indians have in Corey Kluber, but they should get consistent quality efforts out of each of their starters. The bullpen could be better, but Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke are big additions that at least make this year's edition better than last year's. Overall, the Twins improved significantly on what wasn't a great team last year, and they have a very good shot at a Wild Card spot. I wouldn't, however, expect them to challenge the Indians unless a lot went right.
Chicago White Sox
Notable Additions: Welington Castillo, Miguel Gonzalez, Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan, Hector Santiago
Notable Losses: Derek Holland, Jake Petricka, Zach Putnam, Mike Pelfrey
Summary: Very young team that is just now beginning to come out of its rebuild, not quite ready yet but they do have a lot of potential future stars to watch
The White Sox won't contend, but I think this will be the year they get themselves up out of the cellar and at least play some competitive baseball. Behind slugger Jose Abreu, breakout hitter Avisail Garcia, and the newly signed Welington Castillo, the offense has a lot of young guys to watch, including Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson, Ryan Cordell, Eloy Jimenez, and a personal favorite of mine, Nicky Delmonico. It could really go in any number of directions given the inexperience of most of the hitters, but it will definitely be interesting and should be trending up. The rotation is the same story, as James Shields may be the worst Opening Day starter in baseball this year, but up-and-comers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Carson Fulmer, and if we're lucky, Michael Kopech, will all get a chance to make their marks this year. Additionally, once Carlos Rodon returns from his shoulder injury, we can see the former 3rd overall pick try to work his way up to stardom as well. The bullpen is rebuilt with Joakim Soria and Luis Avilan coming in to replace Jake Petricka and Zach Putnam, and more young guys should push their way through the cracks to join that duo as well as Nate Jones and Danny Farquhar. It's not a great bullpen, but the White Sox aren't looking to contend anyways. I could definitely see them finishing near .500 though.
Kansas City Royals
Notable Additions: Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, Ricky Nolasco, Wily Peralta, Jesse Hahn
Notable Losses: Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Melky Cabrera, Brandon Moss, Jason Vargas, Mike Minor, Ryan Buchter, Scott Alexander, Chris Young
Summary: The Royals are about to enter into another rebuild, but management did decide to build at least a somewhat competitive team for 2018 and they at least won't roll over and play dead as they begin to sell off assets
The Royals' window to contend seems to have closed, but they got a World Series Championship in 2015 so they have to be happy with how it went down. Now, they're left with a shallow MLB roster and an even shallower farm system after two of the franchise faces, Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain, left via free agency. It's time to start rebuilding, which the Royals have been to a small extent, so it wouldn't be surprising to see some moves at the deadline. The team isn't terrible, as the front office clearly put some effort into trying to be competitive by bringing back Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar while signing Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, and Ricky Nolasco, among others, so there is at least something to look forward to in 2018. The Hosmer and Cain-less offense is now led by Moustakas, Duda, Whit Merrifield, and Salvador Perez, plus hopefully a long, long awaited breakout from Jorge Soler. The defense is pretty good, too, with Perez and Alex Gordon owning some of the best gloves in baseball and Jay and Escobar being capable of some highlight reel plays as well. Ricky Nolasco replaces Jason Vargas in the rotation, with Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, and Jason Hammel sitting atop the veteran unit. The Royals also have plenty of big league-ready prospects who can step in, such as Jake Junis (not technically a prospect after throwing 98.1 innings last season), Eric Skoglund, and Scott Barlow. The crop of prospects isn't nearly as good as the that of the White Sox, but it will be interesting nonetheless, at least on the mound. The bullpen saw significant turnover too and will likely not be as good this year, one major weakness for the team. Overall, they won't contend, and it's likely the beginning of another rebuild in Kansas City.
Detroit Tigers
Notable Additions: Francisco Liriano, Mike Fiers, Leonys Martin, Travis Wood
Notable Losses: Ian Kinsler, Alex Presley, Bryan Holaday, Tyler Collins, Bruce Rondon
Summary: Rebuilding team that lacks impact players outside of Miguel Cabrera, Nicholas Castellanos, and Michael Fulmer, likely to continue rebuild through the season
It was a quiet offseason in Detroit, as the rebuild is on and the team is set to go dormant for a couple of seasons. Justin Verlander and J.D. Martinez were shipped off during the season, and Ian Kinsler is gone to Los Angeles, leaving Miguel Cabrera as the sole star remaining on the team. If nothing else, Cabrera is a fun one to watch, sitting 38 home runs shy of 500 for his career and already possessing a Hall of Fame resume. He was one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball last year and should bounce back from his .249/.329/.399 slash line from last season. Joining him on offense will be Nicholas Castellanos and fellow long, longtime veteran Victor Martinez, who is 39 and entering his 17th major league season. One guy to watch will be third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who came over from Chicago in the Justin Wilson trade and who looks like an early AL Rookie of the Year candidate. Mike Mahtook, Dixon Machado, and Victor Reyes are more guys who could see increased playing time this year and try to make their mark. The rotation is definitely a weak spot, led by Michael Fulmer, Jordan Zimmermann, Francisco Liriano, and Mike Fiers, of which only Fulmer can be considered above average at this point. Daniel Norris as well will try to bounce back from a tough 2017. The bullpen has a couple of nice pieces at the top in Shane Greene and Alex Wilson, but it's otherwise pretty barren and will rely on a lot of young guys to step up. Fortunately, the Tigers seem to be hoarding right handed pitching prospects, so we could see guys like Beau Burrows, Franklin Perez, and even Kyle Funkhouser try to break through onto the weak pitching staff. Rookies are fun to watch, but they don't always win games, so don't expect Detroit to finish much higher than .400.
Unlikely to Contend: White Sox, Royals, Tigers
Like most divisions this year, the AL Central has a clear favorite, and in this case it's the Cleveland Indians. It's not that the Indians are necessarily on the same level as the Yankees or Astros – I think they actually peaked in 2016 – but that the division is overall pretty weak as usual and that they are the only real powerhouse in the division. The Twins had a great offseason and have a better chance at catching the Indians than most people think, but it doesn't change the fact that all smart bets would be on Cleveland. I do think the Twins have a very good chance at capturing a Wild Card, and it'll be a fun three-way battle between them, the Angels, and whoever is in second place between the Red Sox and Yankees. The White Sox will be a fun team to watch, given that the fruits of their rebuild are now beginning to reach the majors, and some of them are ready to make a serious impact. Down at the bottom, the Royals and Tigers look unlikely to make much noise, given the personnel losses suffered in Kansas City and the rebuild occurring in Detroit.
Cleveland Indians
Notable Additions: Yonder Alonso, Rajai Davis, Carlos Torres
Notable Losses: Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson, Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, Boone Logan
Summary: A very good team that isn't quite a super team, but they can hold their own against the league powerhouses with a multitude of big bats and high level arms.
The Indians lost their fair share of players this offseason, most notably on offense and in the bullpen. They were able to replace Carlos Santana with Yonder Alonso and Austin Jackson with Rajai Davis, but the offense will otherwise lean heavily on a bounce-back from Michael Brantley if it wants to be as good as last year's. Fortunately, having a healthy Brantley could be better than any free agent addition, as he has played just 101 games over the past two seasons but was worth 9.6 fWAR from 2014-2015 when healthy. Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, and the aforementioned Alonso form a very good core for the lineup with a healthy Brantley, and a breakout from Bradley Zimmer could be icing on the cake for a very good team. They do lack some depth though, as I would not be too confident in a bench made up of Brandon Guyer, Tyler Naquin, Giovanny Urshela, Yan Gomes, and Francisco Mejia, especially in the inevitable case of injuries when one or more will need to step up. On the mound, the rotation looks as good as ever, with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin, and Mike Clevinger holding down the fort until Danny Salazar returns from a shoulder injury. The bullpen did take heavy losses, losing Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, and Boone Logan, all productive relievers, while replacing it with an inferior contingent of Carlos Torres, Matt Belisle, Craig Breslow, and Neil Ramirez. That said, Cody Allen and Andrew Miller form one of the best one-two bullpen punches in baseball, and Dan Otero is another high-level arm. This team has some holes, so I wouldn't classify it as a super team, but they're primed for another deep postseason run.
Minnesota Twins
Notable Additions: Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke, Logan Morrison, Erick Aybar
Notable Losses: Hector Santiago, Glen Perkins, Bartolo Colon, Matt Belisle
Summary: Extremely improved team with balanced offense and rotation, lack star power but will contend for a Wild Card spot
The Twins look like they'll be one of the most improved teams of 2018. A very good offseason saw them lose no big pieces, save for Glen Perkins if only because of his service time, but plenty of cost effective additions. Logan Morrison adds a 30 homer bat to an offense that already has some nice pieces in Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Joe Mauer, and Byron Buxton, who doubles as arguably baseball's best defensive outfielder. Losing Jorge Polanco for half the season hurts, but the team has a deep lineup with quite a few guys who are capable of stepping up into larger roles if necessary. It doesn't quite match up with Cleveland's offense, but it's not blown out of the water either. On the mound, Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn are welcome additions to slot in with Jose Berrios, Ervin Santana, and Kyle Gibson, and the Twins do have a few arms in the high minors that could step in if necessary. Again, it lacks the true ace the Indians have in Corey Kluber, but they should get consistent quality efforts out of each of their starters. The bullpen could be better, but Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke are big additions that at least make this year's edition better than last year's. Overall, the Twins improved significantly on what wasn't a great team last year, and they have a very good shot at a Wild Card spot. I wouldn't, however, expect them to challenge the Indians unless a lot went right.
Chicago White Sox
Notable Additions: Welington Castillo, Miguel Gonzalez, Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan, Hector Santiago
Notable Losses: Derek Holland, Jake Petricka, Zach Putnam, Mike Pelfrey
Summary: Very young team that is just now beginning to come out of its rebuild, not quite ready yet but they do have a lot of potential future stars to watch
The White Sox won't contend, but I think this will be the year they get themselves up out of the cellar and at least play some competitive baseball. Behind slugger Jose Abreu, breakout hitter Avisail Garcia, and the newly signed Welington Castillo, the offense has a lot of young guys to watch, including Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson, Ryan Cordell, Eloy Jimenez, and a personal favorite of mine, Nicky Delmonico. It could really go in any number of directions given the inexperience of most of the hitters, but it will definitely be interesting and should be trending up. The rotation is the same story, as James Shields may be the worst Opening Day starter in baseball this year, but up-and-comers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Carson Fulmer, and if we're lucky, Michael Kopech, will all get a chance to make their marks this year. Additionally, once Carlos Rodon returns from his shoulder injury, we can see the former 3rd overall pick try to work his way up to stardom as well. The bullpen is rebuilt with Joakim Soria and Luis Avilan coming in to replace Jake Petricka and Zach Putnam, and more young guys should push their way through the cracks to join that duo as well as Nate Jones and Danny Farquhar. It's not a great bullpen, but the White Sox aren't looking to contend anyways. I could definitely see them finishing near .500 though.
Kansas City Royals
Notable Additions: Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, Ricky Nolasco, Wily Peralta, Jesse Hahn
Notable Losses: Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Melky Cabrera, Brandon Moss, Jason Vargas, Mike Minor, Ryan Buchter, Scott Alexander, Chris Young
Summary: The Royals are about to enter into another rebuild, but management did decide to build at least a somewhat competitive team for 2018 and they at least won't roll over and play dead as they begin to sell off assets
The Royals' window to contend seems to have closed, but they got a World Series Championship in 2015 so they have to be happy with how it went down. Now, they're left with a shallow MLB roster and an even shallower farm system after two of the franchise faces, Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain, left via free agency. It's time to start rebuilding, which the Royals have been to a small extent, so it wouldn't be surprising to see some moves at the deadline. The team isn't terrible, as the front office clearly put some effort into trying to be competitive by bringing back Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar while signing Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, and Ricky Nolasco, among others, so there is at least something to look forward to in 2018. The Hosmer and Cain-less offense is now led by Moustakas, Duda, Whit Merrifield, and Salvador Perez, plus hopefully a long, long awaited breakout from Jorge Soler. The defense is pretty good, too, with Perez and Alex Gordon owning some of the best gloves in baseball and Jay and Escobar being capable of some highlight reel plays as well. Ricky Nolasco replaces Jason Vargas in the rotation, with Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, and Jason Hammel sitting atop the veteran unit. The Royals also have plenty of big league-ready prospects who can step in, such as Jake Junis (not technically a prospect after throwing 98.1 innings last season), Eric Skoglund, and Scott Barlow. The crop of prospects isn't nearly as good as the that of the White Sox, but it will be interesting nonetheless, at least on the mound. The bullpen saw significant turnover too and will likely not be as good this year, one major weakness for the team. Overall, they won't contend, and it's likely the beginning of another rebuild in Kansas City.
Detroit Tigers
Notable Additions: Francisco Liriano, Mike Fiers, Leonys Martin, Travis Wood
Notable Losses: Ian Kinsler, Alex Presley, Bryan Holaday, Tyler Collins, Bruce Rondon
Summary: Rebuilding team that lacks impact players outside of Miguel Cabrera, Nicholas Castellanos, and Michael Fulmer, likely to continue rebuild through the season
It was a quiet offseason in Detroit, as the rebuild is on and the team is set to go dormant for a couple of seasons. Justin Verlander and J.D. Martinez were shipped off during the season, and Ian Kinsler is gone to Los Angeles, leaving Miguel Cabrera as the sole star remaining on the team. If nothing else, Cabrera is a fun one to watch, sitting 38 home runs shy of 500 for his career and already possessing a Hall of Fame resume. He was one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball last year and should bounce back from his .249/.329/.399 slash line from last season. Joining him on offense will be Nicholas Castellanos and fellow long, longtime veteran Victor Martinez, who is 39 and entering his 17th major league season. One guy to watch will be third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who came over from Chicago in the Justin Wilson trade and who looks like an early AL Rookie of the Year candidate. Mike Mahtook, Dixon Machado, and Victor Reyes are more guys who could see increased playing time this year and try to make their mark. The rotation is definitely a weak spot, led by Michael Fulmer, Jordan Zimmermann, Francisco Liriano, and Mike Fiers, of which only Fulmer can be considered above average at this point. Daniel Norris as well will try to bounce back from a tough 2017. The bullpen has a couple of nice pieces at the top in Shane Greene and Alex Wilson, but it's otherwise pretty barren and will rely on a lot of young guys to step up. Fortunately, the Tigers seem to be hoarding right handed pitching prospects, so we could see guys like Beau Burrows, Franklin Perez, and even Kyle Funkhouser try to break through onto the weak pitching staff. Rookies are fun to watch, but they don't always win games, so don't expect Detroit to finish much higher than .400.
Thursday, March 22, 2018
Season Preview: AL East
Division Crown Contenders: Yankees, Red Sox
Additional Wild Card Contenders: Blue Jays
Unlikely to Contend: Orioles, Rays
With two powerhouses at the top in the Yankees and Red Sox, the AL East is one of only two divisions (the other being the NL Central) without a clear favorite. In fact, the battle for the division crown might be the most fun one to watch this season, and whoever misses out will likely host the Wild Card Game. I'm putting my money on the Yankees winning out, as they are a young team that seemingly arrived a year early and will only be getting better with the arrivals of Giancarlo Stanton as well as the slew of MLB ready prospects hungry to make a difference. The bottom of the division is fairly middling, as the Blue Jays will probably break .500 and might contend for a second Wild Card spot but the Orioles and Rays look to be .400-.450 teams.
New York Yankees
Notable Additions: Giancarlo Stanton, Neil Walker, Brandon Drury
Notable Losses: Todd Frazier, Chase Headley, Starlin Castro, Michael Pineda, Jaime Garcia
Summary: Powerhouse team led by top-notch, homer happy offense and elite bullpen, should have few problems with a good-enough rotation.
The Yankees look like not only the favorites to win the AL East, but one of the best teams in baseball. Last year, they ran all the way to the ALCS with a team that wasn't supposed to be quite ready, and they've only gotten better. While Neil Walker for Starlin Castro, Brandon Drury for Chase Headley, and Greg Bird for Todd Frazier aren't eye popping substitutions, reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton represents a huge upgrade over Jacoby Ellsbury in the outfield and with Aaron Judge will form the most fearsome lineup duo in baseball since Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Add in the best catcher in baseball, Gary Sanchez, and that's a lineup not to be messed with. Prospects Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Tyler Wade, Clint Frazier, and Billy McKinney are also chomping at the bit for playing time, so if any starters see injuries, the Yanks will have the manpower to overcome. On the mound, the starting rotation is more or less average behind ace Luis Severino, but the bullpen might be the best ever constructed. Aroldis Chapman (3.22 ERA, 69/20 K/BB) leads a historic set of relief arms comprised of Dellin Betances (2.87, 100/44), David Robertson (1.84, 98/23), Chad Green (1.83, 103/17), Tommy Kahnle (2.59, 96/17), and Adam Warren (2.35, 54/15), among others. If starters like Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, C.C. Sabathia, and Jordan Montgomery can avoid getting blown up, it's tough to see this team losing many games.
Boston Red Sox
Notable Additions: J.D. Martinez
Notable Losses: Addison Reed, Doug Fister, Chris Young
Summary: Another AL powerhouse, but with more question marks than the Yankees and a smaller margin for error.
The Red Sox had a fairly quiet offseason aside from adding the big bat of J.D. Martinez, sitting on a powerhouse team that was already ready to compete. However, while the Yankees more or less know what they're getting out of their team, the Red Sox have a lot of questions. Martinez adds power to an offense that also includes Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez, plus up-and-comers Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers, but much of the Sox' projection for the season is based on improvements from the latter two. Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley have been up-and-down as well, and Dustin Pedroia is going to miss a chunk of the season after offseason knee surgery. The catching situation is also a bit up in the air, as none of Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, or Blake Swihart have ever appeared in 100 games in a season. On the mound, Chris Sale, David Price, and Rick Porcello form a solid top three, but injuries to Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Steven Wright raise questions, at least for the beginning of the season. Craig Kimbrel is one of the top relievers in baseball, and Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg (once healthy) could make for a very good trio, so the bullpen will be a strong spot even with the loss of Addison Reed. Behind Sale, Martinez, Betts, Kimbrel, and co., Red Sox have the tools to keep pace with the Yankees; they just have a smaller margin for error.
Toronto Blue Jays
Notable Additions: Randal Grichuk, Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz, Jaime Garcia, Seung-Hwan Oh, Tyler Clippard, John Axford
Notable Losses: Jose Bautista, Ryan Goins, Tom Koehler, Michael Saunders, Darwin Barney
Summary: Middling team with a lot of depth on the bench, an average rotation, and a deep, rebuilt bullpen. A healthy Troy Tulowitzki could do wonders if a few other things break right, but a Wild Card would be a long shot.
The Blue Jays had a busy offseason of smaller moves, adding no big names but adding depth all over the place. The once-shallow offense now added Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz, and Danny Espinosa to back up the oft-injured Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis in the infield while adding Randal Grichuk and Curtis Granderson to fill out the outfield. This team has a lot of depth on offense and has two big bats in Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak, but to me, the problem with the offense is more that they lack lineup depth. It's great to have a bunch of fourth outfielder/utility man options, but when you don't have any real, impactful bats behind Donaldson and Smoak, that's a problem, and it will keep the Blue Jays' offense more average than elite. On the mound, they don't have a clear ace like Boston's Chris Sale or New York's Luis Severino, but they do have five capable major league starters in Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, and Jaime Garcia, so long as everyone stays healthy. Really, it's not a strength or a weakness. The bullpen may be their one true strength, as Roberto Osuna is one of the best relievers in baseball and they made a slew of additions through free agency, including Seung-Hwan Oh, Tyler Clippard, John Axford, Jake Petricka, Craig Breslow, and Al Albuquerque, and they already have guys like Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes, and Aaron Loup in the mix. Overall, it's a pretty average team, but they could try to grab a second Wild Card spot if everything breaks just right.
Baltimore Orioles
Notable Additions: Alex Cobb, Andrew Cashner, Danny Valencia, Colby Rasmus
Notable Losses: Seth Smith, J.J. Hardy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Welington Castillo, Wade Miley, Jeremy Hellickson
Summary: A strong offense will have a lot of pressure putting up runs in support of what looks like a very mediocre pitching staff from top to bottom
The Orioles have some solid pieces to work with, but unfortunately the whole has usually been less than the sum of the parts for the Orioles in recent years and I don't see that changing this year. On offense, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and up-and-comers Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, and even Austin Hays form a lineup that shouldn't be messed with, especially with Machado's down year last season looking like a fluke. This is a good hitting team with a surprising amount of depth on offense, but that's not where their downfall has lied in the past few seasons. Last year, their rotation posted the worst ERA in baseball at 5.70, and while they did sub Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner for Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley, it's still not pretty. Their is no true ace, and it would even be a stretch to say anybody in that rotation, including Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Tillman, is even a #2 starter on most teams. There will be a lot of pressure on the offense when the rotation is filled with #3's, #4's, and #5's throughout, and that's before anybody gets hurt. The bullpen is not much better, especially with relief ace Zach Britton set to miss the start of the season, as Brad Brach and Darren O'Day combine with him to form a decent trio, but not one that rivals Chapman/Betances/Robertson in New York or Kimbrel/Smith/Thornburg in Boston. If things break right on the pitching staff and they're able to hold opponents down just enough to win slugfests, this team might have an outside shot at a Wild Card, but if the offense slumps at any point during the season, the whole team will slump no matter what the pitching staff does.
Tampa Bay Rays
Notable Additions: Carlos Gomez, C.J. Cron, Denard Span, Christian Arroyo, Daniel Hudson
Notable Losses: Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, Logan Morrison, Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi, Brad Boxberger, Tommy Hunter, Steve Cishek, Colby Rasmus, Lucas Duda
Summary: The Rays are in a transition year, with a weak lineup and a lack of impact arms aside from Chris Archer and Alex Colome, with the one spot to be excited about being the defense.
There is a lot of turnover pretty much everywhere on the roster, and 2018 will definitely be a transition season for the Rays. Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, and Logan Morrison, who were three of the best bats on the team, are gone, leaving Kevin Kiermaier, Wilson Ramos, and newcomers Carlos Gomez and C.J. Cron to pick up the slack. What this does mean, though, is that rookies like Christian Arroyo, Jake Bauers, Willy Adames, and Joey Wendle may get the opportunity to showcase what they can do. While the bats are light, the team does have some good defense, as Kiermaier is one of the best outfielders in the game and Mallex Smith, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Denard Span also carry solid gloves. On the mound, the Rays are looking to use a four man rotation with Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi gone, comprising of Chris Archer, Blake Snell, Jake Faria, and Nathan Eovaldi. The injury to Jose De Leon hurts, but they do have guys like Anthony Banda, Ryan Yarbrough, and Chih-Wei Hu, among others, who can step up if necessary. Aside from retaining Alex Colome, Dan Jennings, and Sergio Romo, the bullpen was decimated in the offseason, with Brad Boxberger, Tommy Hunter, Steve Cishek, Shawn Tolleson, and Xavier Cedeno packing up and heading elsewhere. There's a lot to be excited about on the farm, but don't expect the Rays to climb much higher than .400.
Additional Wild Card Contenders: Blue Jays
Unlikely to Contend: Orioles, Rays
With two powerhouses at the top in the Yankees and Red Sox, the AL East is one of only two divisions (the other being the NL Central) without a clear favorite. In fact, the battle for the division crown might be the most fun one to watch this season, and whoever misses out will likely host the Wild Card Game. I'm putting my money on the Yankees winning out, as they are a young team that seemingly arrived a year early and will only be getting better with the arrivals of Giancarlo Stanton as well as the slew of MLB ready prospects hungry to make a difference. The bottom of the division is fairly middling, as the Blue Jays will probably break .500 and might contend for a second Wild Card spot but the Orioles and Rays look to be .400-.450 teams.
New York Yankees
Notable Additions: Giancarlo Stanton, Neil Walker, Brandon Drury
Notable Losses: Todd Frazier, Chase Headley, Starlin Castro, Michael Pineda, Jaime Garcia
Summary: Powerhouse team led by top-notch, homer happy offense and elite bullpen, should have few problems with a good-enough rotation.
The Yankees look like not only the favorites to win the AL East, but one of the best teams in baseball. Last year, they ran all the way to the ALCS with a team that wasn't supposed to be quite ready, and they've only gotten better. While Neil Walker for Starlin Castro, Brandon Drury for Chase Headley, and Greg Bird for Todd Frazier aren't eye popping substitutions, reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton represents a huge upgrade over Jacoby Ellsbury in the outfield and with Aaron Judge will form the most fearsome lineup duo in baseball since Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Add in the best catcher in baseball, Gary Sanchez, and that's a lineup not to be messed with. Prospects Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Tyler Wade, Clint Frazier, and Billy McKinney are also chomping at the bit for playing time, so if any starters see injuries, the Yanks will have the manpower to overcome. On the mound, the starting rotation is more or less average behind ace Luis Severino, but the bullpen might be the best ever constructed. Aroldis Chapman (3.22 ERA, 69/20 K/BB) leads a historic set of relief arms comprised of Dellin Betances (2.87, 100/44), David Robertson (1.84, 98/23), Chad Green (1.83, 103/17), Tommy Kahnle (2.59, 96/17), and Adam Warren (2.35, 54/15), among others. If starters like Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, C.C. Sabathia, and Jordan Montgomery can avoid getting blown up, it's tough to see this team losing many games.
Boston Red Sox
Notable Additions: J.D. Martinez
Notable Losses: Addison Reed, Doug Fister, Chris Young
Summary: Another AL powerhouse, but with more question marks than the Yankees and a smaller margin for error.
The Red Sox had a fairly quiet offseason aside from adding the big bat of J.D. Martinez, sitting on a powerhouse team that was already ready to compete. However, while the Yankees more or less know what they're getting out of their team, the Red Sox have a lot of questions. Martinez adds power to an offense that also includes Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez, plus up-and-comers Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers, but much of the Sox' projection for the season is based on improvements from the latter two. Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley have been up-and-down as well, and Dustin Pedroia is going to miss a chunk of the season after offseason knee surgery. The catching situation is also a bit up in the air, as none of Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, or Blake Swihart have ever appeared in 100 games in a season. On the mound, Chris Sale, David Price, and Rick Porcello form a solid top three, but injuries to Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Steven Wright raise questions, at least for the beginning of the season. Craig Kimbrel is one of the top relievers in baseball, and Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg (once healthy) could make for a very good trio, so the bullpen will be a strong spot even with the loss of Addison Reed. Behind Sale, Martinez, Betts, Kimbrel, and co., Red Sox have the tools to keep pace with the Yankees; they just have a smaller margin for error.
Toronto Blue Jays
Notable Additions: Randal Grichuk, Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz, Jaime Garcia, Seung-Hwan Oh, Tyler Clippard, John Axford
Notable Losses: Jose Bautista, Ryan Goins, Tom Koehler, Michael Saunders, Darwin Barney
Summary: Middling team with a lot of depth on the bench, an average rotation, and a deep, rebuilt bullpen. A healthy Troy Tulowitzki could do wonders if a few other things break right, but a Wild Card would be a long shot.
The Blue Jays had a busy offseason of smaller moves, adding no big names but adding depth all over the place. The once-shallow offense now added Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz, and Danny Espinosa to back up the oft-injured Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis in the infield while adding Randal Grichuk and Curtis Granderson to fill out the outfield. This team has a lot of depth on offense and has two big bats in Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak, but to me, the problem with the offense is more that they lack lineup depth. It's great to have a bunch of fourth outfielder/utility man options, but when you don't have any real, impactful bats behind Donaldson and Smoak, that's a problem, and it will keep the Blue Jays' offense more average than elite. On the mound, they don't have a clear ace like Boston's Chris Sale or New York's Luis Severino, but they do have five capable major league starters in Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, and Jaime Garcia, so long as everyone stays healthy. Really, it's not a strength or a weakness. The bullpen may be their one true strength, as Roberto Osuna is one of the best relievers in baseball and they made a slew of additions through free agency, including Seung-Hwan Oh, Tyler Clippard, John Axford, Jake Petricka, Craig Breslow, and Al Albuquerque, and they already have guys like Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes, and Aaron Loup in the mix. Overall, it's a pretty average team, but they could try to grab a second Wild Card spot if everything breaks just right.
Baltimore Orioles
Notable Additions: Alex Cobb, Andrew Cashner, Danny Valencia, Colby Rasmus
Notable Losses: Seth Smith, J.J. Hardy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Welington Castillo, Wade Miley, Jeremy Hellickson
Summary: A strong offense will have a lot of pressure putting up runs in support of what looks like a very mediocre pitching staff from top to bottom
The Orioles have some solid pieces to work with, but unfortunately the whole has usually been less than the sum of the parts for the Orioles in recent years and I don't see that changing this year. On offense, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and up-and-comers Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, and even Austin Hays form a lineup that shouldn't be messed with, especially with Machado's down year last season looking like a fluke. This is a good hitting team with a surprising amount of depth on offense, but that's not where their downfall has lied in the past few seasons. Last year, their rotation posted the worst ERA in baseball at 5.70, and while they did sub Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner for Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley, it's still not pretty. Their is no true ace, and it would even be a stretch to say anybody in that rotation, including Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Tillman, is even a #2 starter on most teams. There will be a lot of pressure on the offense when the rotation is filled with #3's, #4's, and #5's throughout, and that's before anybody gets hurt. The bullpen is not much better, especially with relief ace Zach Britton set to miss the start of the season, as Brad Brach and Darren O'Day combine with him to form a decent trio, but not one that rivals Chapman/Betances/Robertson in New York or Kimbrel/Smith/Thornburg in Boston. If things break right on the pitching staff and they're able to hold opponents down just enough to win slugfests, this team might have an outside shot at a Wild Card, but if the offense slumps at any point during the season, the whole team will slump no matter what the pitching staff does.
Tampa Bay Rays
Notable Additions: Carlos Gomez, C.J. Cron, Denard Span, Christian Arroyo, Daniel Hudson
Notable Losses: Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, Logan Morrison, Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi, Brad Boxberger, Tommy Hunter, Steve Cishek, Colby Rasmus, Lucas Duda
Summary: The Rays are in a transition year, with a weak lineup and a lack of impact arms aside from Chris Archer and Alex Colome, with the one spot to be excited about being the defense.
There is a lot of turnover pretty much everywhere on the roster, and 2018 will definitely be a transition season for the Rays. Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, and Logan Morrison, who were three of the best bats on the team, are gone, leaving Kevin Kiermaier, Wilson Ramos, and newcomers Carlos Gomez and C.J. Cron to pick up the slack. What this does mean, though, is that rookies like Christian Arroyo, Jake Bauers, Willy Adames, and Joey Wendle may get the opportunity to showcase what they can do. While the bats are light, the team does have some good defense, as Kiermaier is one of the best outfielders in the game and Mallex Smith, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Denard Span also carry solid gloves. On the mound, the Rays are looking to use a four man rotation with Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi gone, comprising of Chris Archer, Blake Snell, Jake Faria, and Nathan Eovaldi. The injury to Jose De Leon hurts, but they do have guys like Anthony Banda, Ryan Yarbrough, and Chih-Wei Hu, among others, who can step up if necessary. Aside from retaining Alex Colome, Dan Jennings, and Sergio Romo, the bullpen was decimated in the offseason, with Brad Boxberger, Tommy Hunter, Steve Cishek, Shawn Tolleson, and Xavier Cedeno packing up and heading elsewhere. There's a lot to be excited about on the farm, but don't expect the Rays to climb much higher than .400.
Monday, April 3, 2017
2017 Season Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks
Major Additions: Taijuan Walker, Fernando Rodney, Daniel Descalso, Chris Iannetta, Jeff Mathis, Ketel Marte
Major Losses: Jean Segura, Welington Castillo, Daniel Hudson, Mitch Haniger
Strengths: Offense
Weaknesses: Bullpen
Potential Breakout Stars: Braden Shipley, Archie Bradley, Jared Miller, Jimmie Sherfy
The Dansby Swanson trade may have been the worst in recent memory, and while it certainly hurts losing a franchise player in return for a decent starter, the major league team isn't quite awful. Paul Goldschmidt, an MVP candidate when healthy, and A.J Pollock, who had a huge 2015 (.315/.367/.498, 39 SB, 131 wRC+) before getting hurt in 2016, will be at the center of the offense. Yasmani Tomas broke out for 31 home runs last season, while Jake Lamb nearly quintupled his career high with 29. Brandon Drury (.282/.329/.458, 102 wRC+) was also a quiet performer last year. In addition to Pollock coming back, David Peralta will be healthy, and the addition of the two could help offset the loss of Jean Segura. Once he comes back from surgery, watch rookie Socrates Brito. On the mound, the hope is that Zack Greinke (4.37 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), Shelby Miller (6.15 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), and Patrick Corbin (5.15 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) will bounce back from their tough seasons, hopefully getting close to their 2015 form (Greinke: 1.66 ERA, 0.84 WHIP. Miller: 3.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP. Corbin: 3.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). Robbie Ray has immense potential, and Beyond the Box Score ran an article last season analyzing Ray's odd combination of high strikeout numbers and high rates of hard hit balls. One of three things could happen: the strikeouts will win out and he'll stop giving up hard contact and turn into a frontline starter, the hard contact will win out and he'll stop striking guys out and fall out of the rotation, or he'll continue on this weird path he's on and continue to be an average starter. Who knows. Lastly, Taijuan Walker is a newcomer, and the 24 year old is hoping this is the year he breaks out into the number two starter he was projected to be. In the case of injury/inefficiency, veteran Jorge De La Rosa or young arms Braden Shipley, Archie Bradley, or Anthony Banda could be called upon to fill the void. 40 year old Fernando Rodney will be the closer, coming off a very odd season. Over 28 appearances with the Padres, he allowed just one run for a spectacular 0.31 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP, but upon being traded to Miami, he put up a 5.89 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP over 39 appearances, ruining his season's line. Andrew Chafin (6.75 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), Tom Wilhelmsen (6.80 ERA, 1.71 WHIP), and J.J. Hoover (13.50 ERA, 2.20 WHIP) will both look to bounce back to their solid 2015 forms, and Arizona will eagerly await Jake Barrett's (3.49 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) return from injury. Highly regarded relief prospects, Jared Miller and Jimmie Sherfy, reached AAA last season and could help out as well. The Diamondbacks will probably finish around .500 this year, but given their completely barren farm system, there isn't much hope for the future.
2017 Season Preview: San Diego Padres
Apologies on this being late. My wifi was down for a majority of the weekend.
Major Additions: Jhoulys Chacin, Trevor Cahill, Jered Weaver, Erick Aybar
Major Losses: Tyson Ross, Derek Norris, Jon Jay, Brandon Morrow, Alexi Amarista
Strengths: Wil Myers is pretty good
Weaknesses: Rotation, Offense
Potential Breakout Stars: Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot, Austin Hedges, Luis Perdomo, Phil Maton
Unfortunately, Padres fans don't have much to look forward to in terms of winning ballgames. Overall, this is probably the worst team in baseball. However, that doesn't mean there won't be anything to watch. Wil Myers had a big breakout season last year (.259/.336/.461, 115 wRC+), bashing 28 home runs and stealing 28 bases when his career highs in those categories were previously 13 and 6, respectively. Yangervis Solarte is also a pretty decent player (.286/.341/.467, 118 wRC+), and after that, it's all young guys. Ryan Schimpf broke out as a 28 year old rookie last season slashed .217/.336/.533, 129 wRC+), showing the makings of a real true-outcome hitter. Last season, 50.6% of his 330 plate appearances ended in one of the three true outcomes (20 home runs, 42 walks, 105 strikeouts), showing big time power, big time plate discipline, and big time swing-and-miss. Travis Jankowski was pretty successful as a rookie, stealing 30 bases if doing nothing else, and Luis Sardinas was pretty good in a limited role. Two rookie hitters you should keep an eye on: Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot. Renfroe has showcased big time power in the minor leagues, blasting 71 home runs over the last three seasons, including 30 in 2016. Reaching the majors at 24 in 2016, he hit everything in site in his short eleven game stint, batting .371 with four home runs and three doubles while striking out just five times in 36 plate appearances (13.9%). He obviously won't put up a 213 wRC+ over a full season, but he could hit 20 home runs with a decent on-base percentage. If he can get even a little more plate discipline (he walked just once – intentionally – in those 36 plate appearances), he could be a dark horse candidate for NL Rookie of the Year. Margot, meanwhile, is known for his speed and ability to put the ball in play, having stolen 162 bases in his five year minor league career while getting on base at a .350 clip. Behind the plate, Austin Hedges will be another interesting player to watch. He has already mastered AAA, slashing .326/.363/583 over 103 career games there, but that has not translated to major league success (.161/.206/.236, 19 wRC+ over 64 games). The 24 year old will get the chance to be the starting catcher this season, and hopefully he can fulfill his big time potential. Unfortunately, the starting rotation is a bit of a train wreck. Jhoulys Chacin will be the ace, coming off a season in which he put up a 4.81 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 34 games (22 starts). Then, there's Clayton Richard and Trevor Cahill, who have combined to start 16 games over the last two seasons (four starts per pitcher per year). Jered Weaver may have made three straight All Star teams from 2010-2012, but his fastball velocity has dipped into the low 80's and his ERA and WHIP have gone up every year since 2011 (2.41 and 1.01 in 2011, 5.06 and 1.46 in 2016). Luis Perdomo rounds out that rotation, coming off a decent-enough rookie season (5.71 ERA, 1.59 WHIP). If things get desperate (which they will), we could see Jarred Cosart or Dinelson Lamet make some starts, or if things get real desperate, 2016 first round pick Eric Lauer could move up through the minor leagues quickly. The bullpen isn't horrible, which is the best thing you can say about this Padres team, with Brandon Maurer (4.52 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), Brad Hand (2.92 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), and Ryan Buchter (2.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) in the back end. They'll also eagerly await the return of Carter Capps, who missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery but was absolutely un-hittable in 30 appearances in 2015 (1.16 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 58 K's in 31 innings). Craig Stammen hasn't been healthy for the past couple of seasons, but he could make an impact if he returns to his 2012-2014 form. Top prospects Jose Torres, Miguel Diaz, and Phil Maton will also look to make their marks. Lastly, we have the most interesting player on the team, if not the most interesting in baseball: super-super utility man Christian Bethancourt. Bethancourt has already played 153 games in the majors, mostly at catcher, but he's also seen time in the outfield, played one inning at second base (2016), and made a pair of relief appearances in blowout games in 2016. This season, he will split time between catcher and pitcher. You've heard of two way college guys (heck, Brendan McKay has a 1.18 ERA and a .417/.532/.679 slash line for the University of Louisville right now), but two way major leaguers? Yeah, we had Rick Ankiel, Micah Owings, Jason Lane, and Brooks Kieschnick do both, but not in a long time have we seen a player do both at once. Best of luck to the 25 year old two-way hopeful.
Friday, March 31, 2017
2017 Season Preview: Colorado Rockies
Major Additions: Ian Desmond, Mike Dunn, Greg Holland, Alexi Amarista
Major Losses: Nick Hundley, Daniel Descalso, Boone Logan, Jorge De La Rosa
Strengths: Offense
Weaknesses: Rotation Depth
Potential Breakout Stars: David Dahl, Raimel Tapia, Tony Wolters, German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela
*Keep in mind that stats from Rockies' players will be inflated due to Coors Field, making hitters seem better and pitchers seem worse. wRC+ adjusts for park effects, so that won't be inflated. I'll include ERA- for pitchers, which adjusts for park and in which lower is better.
The Rockies could go in any number of directions, but I believe one of those directions could be towards the playoffs. This is one of the better teams they've fielded in a while, thanks in no small part to their ability to actually build a pitching staff. Jon Gray, the third overall pick of the 2013 draft, put up a 4.61 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 29 starts last season, which is actually really good when you consider he was pitching in Coors Field. His ERA- of 94 means that he was 6% better (100-94) than the average starter. While Gray took the big step forward the Rockies were hoping for, Tyler Chatwood took the step forward nobody expected. His 3.87 ERA (79 ERA-) and 1.37 WHIP were some of the best we've seen from Rockies starters. Tyler Anderson (3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 72 ERA-) was a similar surprise. After those three, though, it gets a bit murky, especially considering the uncertain status of Chad Bettis (4.79 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 98 ERA-), who is battling cancer and is out indefinitely. Five young arms will continually compete for those last two spots, including Jeff Hoffman, Antonio Senzatela, German Marquez, Harrison Musgrave, and Kyle Freeland. Freeland and Hoffman were taken with back to back picks in the first round of the 2014 MLB Draft, with Freeland going to Colorado at #8 overall and Hoffman ending up with the Blue Jays at #9 overall. Hoffman briefly reached the majors for eight games (six starts) in 2016 (4.88 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, 100 ERA-), while Freeland split the season between AA and AAA. Marquez and Senzatela are highly regarded prospects in their own rights, with Marquez reaching the majors at 21 years old last season (5.23 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 107 ERA-) and Senzatela impressing the team this spring. Lastly, Harrison Musgrave is more likely to wind up in the bullpen, but he did reach AAA as a starter in 2016. The bullpen could have one of the best relievers in the game in Greg Holland if he's healthy, and Adam Ottavino and Jake McGee aren't bad options either. Mike Dunn essentially replaces Boone Logan, and Carlos Estevez and Jason Motte are solid pieces as well. Of course, in Coors Field, everything comes down to hitting, and the Rockies have plenty of it per usual. Nolan Arenado (.294/.362/.570, 124 wRC+), Charlie Blackmon (.324/.381/.552, 130 wRC+), and Carlos Gonzalez (.298/.350/.505, 108 wRC+) form a solid offensive core, while Trevor Story (.272/.341/.567, 120 wRC+) and DJ LeMahieu (.348/.416/.495, 128 wRC+) are also nice pieces. Neither Story nor LeMahieu are likely to keep up the pace they set in 2016, but this offense is not something to mess with, especially in Coors Field. Once Ian Desmond (.285/.335/.446, 106 wRC+ not in Coors) comes back from his hand injury, the team will only get better. Some young guys to watch include Cristhian Adames, Raimel Tapia, and of course, David Dahl, who was successful in his 63 game stint last season (.315/.359/.500, 111 wRC+). Tony Wolters, another young guy at just 24 years old, will do the catching after a moderately successful 71 game rookie stint (.259/.327/.395, 75 wRC+). Dustin Garneau and Tom Murphy, once he comes back from his arm injury, will push Wolters for playing time behind the plate.
Thursday, March 30, 2017
2017 Season Preview: San Francisco Giants
Major Additions: Mark Melancon, Nick Hundley, Jimmy Rollins, Justin Ruggiano
Major Losses: Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Jake Peavy, Javier Lopez, Chris Heston
Strengths: Rotation, Catching Corps
Weaknesses: Offensive Depth, Bullpen Depth
Potential Breakout Stars: Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker, Ty Blach, Steven Okert, Tyler Beede, Austin Slater
The San Francisco battery will be among the best in baseball, with their excellent rotation (more on that later) and top notch catchers. Buster Posey, the 2012 NL MVP, is arguably baseball's best catcher, while Nick Hundley is one of baseball's best back-ups. Even Trevor Brown, the third stringer, hit five home runs in 75 games for the Giants last year, and he just turned 25 this offseason. Aside from Posey, no names stand out on offense, but Brandon Belt is one of baseball's most underrated hitters. Though he has never reached 20 home runs in a season, his high numbers of doubles and triples enable him to put up big offensive numbers even in cavernous AT&T Park. He put up a 138 wRC+ last season, and his career mark of 129 is comparable to some big names, like David Wright (133), Anthony Rizzo (131), Mark Teixeira (127), and Evan Longoria (126). You may not realize this because he hit "just" .275, but his .394 on-base percentage was good for fifth in the National League, behind only Joey Votto (.434), DJ LeMahieu (.416), Paul Goldschmidt (.411), and Freddie Freeman (.400). Main point: Brandon Belt is one of the best first baseman in baseball, even if nobody cares to take notice. Brandon Crawford will be another offensive and defensive leader, coming off a season where he set career highs in triples (11), stolen bases (7), batting average (.275), and on-base percentage (.342). Hunter Pence may be about to turn 34, but he still managed to slash .289/.357/.451 (121 wRC+) last year, and if injuries don't catch him, he doesn't look like he's slowing down. Joe Panik was great in 2015 (.312/.378/.455, 136 wRC+), but not so great in 2016 (.239/.315/.379, 89 wRC+), so he's a wild card for 2017. There's also Eduardo Nunez and Denard Span, with the only positional question mark being left field. Jarrett Parker (.236/.358/.394, 110 wRC+), Mac Williamson (.223/.315/.411, 100 wRC+), and Gorkys Hernandez (.259/.298/.463, 105 wRC+) could all share time there, and maybe even infielder Kelby Tomlinson (.292/.370/.330, 98 wRC+) could slide out there from time to time. There's also prospect Austin Slater, who reached AAA in 2016 and slashed .298/.381/.506, albeit in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. On the mound, it all begins with Madison Bumgarner. Though he's not quite his Los Angeles counterpart, Bumgarner has put up ERA's below 3.00 in each of the past four seasons while never letting his WHIP creep above 1.09. Johnny Cueto is nearly as good, having put up ERA's below 2.90 in five of the last six seasons. There's a slight drop off after the big two, but Matt Moore was solid in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery (4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) and Jeff Samardzija had a nice rebound season (3.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). For the fifth spot, Matt Cain has been a fixture in the San Fran rotation for a decade now, but his glory days of 2009-2012 are behind him. Ty Blach inexplicably came up and dominated in his short stint with the team, putting up a 1.06 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP over four games (two starts), allowing just eight hits in 17 innings. There's also swingman Albert Suarez, who quietly put up a 4.29 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 22 games (12 starts) as a rookie last year. If none of those options work out, top prospect Tyler Beede reached AA last season and is nearly ready, as are other prospects like Joan Gregorio and Andrew Suarez. The bullpen took a heavy hit with the losses of Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, and Javier Lopez to free agency (with Lopez retiring), though they did go out and add one of the best relievers in baseball, Mark Melancon (1.64 ERA, 0.90 WHIP). Derek Law (2.13 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) was great as a rookie last season, and Hunter Strickland (3.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and George Kontos (2.53 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) are available as well. A fourth big hit just occurred a few days ago, as Will Smith (3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) announced he would undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the season. The slew of departures/injuries leaves the team with little depth, so rookie Steven Okert will need to step up, along with fringe guys like Cory Gearrin (4.28 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and Josh Osich (4.71 ERA, 1.38 WHIP). Like the Dodgers, the Giants will be relying on star power, with theirs provided by Posey, Bumgarner, Cueto, Melancon, and Belt and supported by Crawford, Pence, Moore, Panik, and Law.
Wednesday, March 29, 2017
2017 Season Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers
Major Additions: Logan Forsythe, Sergio Romo, Franklin Gutierrez, Brandon Morrow
Major Losses: Josh Reddick, Carlos Ruiz, Howie Kendrick, Jose De Leon, Joe Blanton, Bud Norris, J.P. Howell, Casey Fien
Strengths: Rotation, Offensive Core
Weaknesses: Bullpen Depth
Potential Breakout Stars: Andrew Toles, Trevor Oaks
The Dodgers, baseball's premier spenders, could have had a disastrous offseason. In addition to the plethora of major losses listed above, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Rich Hill, and Chase Utley were all free agents who re-signed with the team. Now, the team is back and strong enough to win another NL West crown. The offense is centered around reigning NL Rookie of the Year Corey Seager (.308/.365/.512, 137 wRC+) and power hitters Justin Turner (.275/.339/.493, 124 wRC+) and Adrian Gonzalez (.285/.349/.435, 112 wRC+). Two other power hitters, Yasmani Grandal and Joc Pederson, struggle with contact but can provide firepower as well, and newcomer Logan Forsythe will be a dynamic threat with his all around hitting abilities. The outfield corners will be interesting to watch, as Yasiel Puig attempts to recapture the magic of his first two years in the majors and supermarket attendant turned outfielder Andrew Toles looks to build on his big rookie season (.314/.365/.505, 132 wRC+). Competing for playing time in the outfield will be Enrique Hernandez, Franklin Gutierrez, and NBA star Klay Thompson's brother, Trayce Thompson. As always, the Dodgers feature an incredibly deep rotation. Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, having posted four straight seasons with ERA's below 2.15 and eight straight seasons with an ERA below 3.00. Kenta Maeda was successful in his first season in American baseball (3.48 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), and Rich Hill will look to continue his out-of-nowhere emergence as one of baseball's better starters. There's not a lot of certainty after those three, but that's not to say there aren't a lot of options. Julio Urias, now 20 years old, put up a 3.39 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP as a rookie last year, but he won't start 2017 in the majors as the Dodgers work to limit his innings. Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has made just one start in the past two seasons due to injuries, will be in the rotation, as he looks to be back in his 2013-2014 form (3.17 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). Alex Wood and Brandon McCarthy are still fighting for a spot, and the Opening Day starting rotation likely won't remain intact throughout the season anyways. Wood was great in 2014 (2.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) but hasn't been as great in 2015 and 2016 (3.82 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). McCarthy is incredibly inconsistent, but he's good sometimes so that keeps him in the running. There's also the injured Scott Kazmir and prospect Trevor Oaks who could see time later in the season. Kenley Jansen returns as one of baseball's top relievers, while Sergio Romo joins the team after a successful run in San Francisco. Grant Dayton (2.05 ERA, 0.76 WHIP) surprised everybody last year as a 28 year old rookie, and he should be able to sustain that success this year. Ross Stripling will be a full time reliever this year, and Chris Hatcher and Adam Liberatore will try to find consistency. Unfortunately, Pedro Baez, Josh Ravin, Brock Stewart, and Yimi Garcia are all injured, putting a major dent in their bullpen depth. Getting the ball to Romo and Jansen may be a struggle this year. Overall, the Dodgers will lean on the star power of Kershaw, Seager, Jansen, Turner, Gonzalez, and Maeda, while the supporting cast of Grandal, Pederson, Forsythe, Hill, Romo, and Dayton will help push this team back to the playoffs.
Tuesday, March 28, 2017
2017 Season Preview: Milwaukee Brewers
Major Additions: Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, Neftali Feliz, Tommy Milone, Joba Chamberlain
Major Losses: Tyler Thornburg, Chris Carter, Martin Maldonado
Strengths: Bullpen
Weaknesses: Getting On Base
Potential Breakout Stars: Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton, Orlando Arcia, Lewis Brinson, Josh Hader
The Brewers are not a good team by any measures, but they could outperform some expectations. Ryan Braun will be the lone hitter in this lineup with considerable major league experience, and the outfielder is coming off his best season since before the scandals (.305/.365/.538, 30 HR, 133 wRC+). After that, it's all youth. Jonathan Villar represents the next most seasoned player, and he's coming off a breakout season where he slashed .285/.369/.457 (118 wRC+) and led the major leagues with 62 stolen bases, though his 18 times caught stealing also led the league. Travis Shaw is coming off a pair of good seasons in Boston, while catcher Jett Bandy hit eight home runs in 70 games for the Angels last season. Eric Thames who hit 21 home runs in a 181 game, two year stint in the majors from 2011-2012, has been a monster in South Korea and will look to bring that success back to the States. Lastly, we have four young hitters to look out for. Keon Broxton had a bit of a breakout last year, slashing .242/.354/.430 (109 wRC+) with 23 stolen bases in 75 games, but Statcast shows that he could be even better this year. Among players with at least 90 batted ball events last season, Broxton had the third highest average exit velocity at 95 MPH, behind only Nelson Cruz (95.9) and Giancarlo Stanton (95.1). If he can drop his 36.1% strikeout rate even a little bit, he could do big things for Milwaukee. Domingo Santana has been a heralded prospect for a long time now, and he continued his ascent last season with a .256/.345/.447 line (110 wRC+) last year. The 24 year old could be the big power bat needed to protect Braun in the lineup. Orlando Arcia wasn't terrific in his debut last season (.219/.273/.358, 64 wRC+), but he's still just 22 years old and has steadily performed at every minor league level so far. Lewis Brinson, widely considered Milwaukee's top prospect, reached AAA last season and was excellent in his 23 games there, slashing .382/.387/.618 (163 wRC+), though his overall 4.8% walk rate on the season was a bit troubling. The 22 year old will start back at AAA this season, but if he improves his plate discipline, he could break into the major leagues and do some damage. The pitching staff as a whole is actually better than you might think. Led by three starting pitchers a casual fan may have never heard of, it could almost be graded out as an average rotation. Junior Guerra finally reached the majors in 2015 at 30 years old, and in his first full season in 2016, he put up a 2.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 20 starts, earning himself the Opening Day start in 2017. Zach Davies has been excellent since his debut in 2015, putting up a 3.92 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 34 starts in his two years in the majors. Jimmy Nelson hasn't been as good as Guerra or Davies, but he has the experience, having put up back to back 30 start seasons with a combined 4.37 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Wily Peralta was great in 2014 (3.53 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), but he hasn't been as great since, putting up a 4.84 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. There's also 33 year old Matt Garza, entering his twelfth major league season, though his Milwaukee career has generated very mixed results. On the outside looking in on the rotation will be Chase Anderson, Tommy Milone, and Taylor Jungmann at the major league level, as well as top prospect Josh Hader in the minors. Hader should be up at some point this season. Neftali Feliz leads an underrated bullpen, followed by Carlos Torres (2.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), Jacob Barnes (2.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in limited action), Jhan Marinez (3.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), and Tyler Cravy (2.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in limited action). Younger guys like Corey Knebel (4.68 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) and Brent Suter (3.32 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in limited action) will look to take the step forward as well, and Joba Chamberlain (2.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in limited action) is always a good name to have back there. The Brewers won't contend with the Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals this year, but with guys like Broxton, Brinson, Santana, Arcia, Hader, Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff, and Mauricio Dubon all in the majors or high minors, plus Corey Ray rapidly moving up the ladder, they could contend soon.
2017 Season Preview: Cincinnati Reds
Major Additions: Scott Feldman, Drew Storen, Louis Coleman, Desmond Jennings
Major Losses: Brandon Phillips, Dan Straily
Strengths: Offensive Diversity
Weaknesses: Pitching
Potential Breakout Stars: Jose Peraza, Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson, Arismendy Alcantara
The Reds' pitching is dreadful, but their offense is decent enough that they won't be a laughing stock. Obviously, everything centers around Joey Votto insane .425 career on-base percentage, while Adam Duvall brings the power after breaking out for 33 home runs last season. Billy Hamilton has the speed, having stolen 56, 57, and 58 stolen bases in the last three seasons, respectively. If I'm any good at analyzing trends, he should steal exactly 59 bases this season. Jose Peraza could be another contact/speed bat, as he slashed .324/.352/.411 (103 wRC+) with 21 stolen bases in his first extended MLB action last season. Eugenio Suarez has shown some surprising power in the majors, knocking 34 home runs in 256 games over the past two seasons, including 21 last year. If Devin Mesoraco can get healthy, it will be a huge boon for the team, because he showed what he was capable of in his big 2014 season (.273/.359/.534, 147 wRC+). Unfortunately, he's been limited to just 39 games over the past two seasons. The pitching staff, unfortunately, is dreadful. Scott Feldman will be the opening day starter, despite being 34 years old and coming off a season in which 35 of his 40 appearances were in relief. Brandon Finnegan was successful in his transition to the rotation last season, putting up a 3.98 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 31 starts. After that, though, things fall apart. Tim Adleman put up a 4.00 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 13 starts as a rookie last year, but he was also making his debut at 28 and has likely hit his ceiling. After those three, there are three top prospects looking to make an impact in 2017. Cody Reed made ten starts for the Reds, but his 7.36 ERA and 1.80 WHIP weren't particularly pretty. Robert Stephenson has a higher ceiling, though he didn't fare much better than Reed, putting up a 6.08 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP over his eight starts. Then, there's Amir Garrett, the former St. John's basketball star who put up a 2.55 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 25 games (23 starts) at AA Pensacola and AAA Louisville in 2016. The 6'5" lefty could make as big of or a bigger impact than Reed or Stephenson in 2017 and beyond. Two more starters, Homer Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani, will open the season on the disabled list, though both could return soon. The bullpen is filled with starters-turned-relievers, led by Raisel Iglesias, Tony Cingrani, and Michael Lorenzen. As of 2014, all three of them were starters, but they all found success after transitioning to shorter stints. Drew Storen is a new addition, and though he's been one of the most inconsistent players in baseball during his career, when he's on, he's on. In 2014, he put up a 1.12 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, and he'll have stretches where he's nearly un-hittable. In 2016, he put up a 6.21 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over 38 appearances with the Blue Jays, but those numbers dropped to 3.44 and 0.87 during his 19 appearances with the Mariners. Despite making just nine appearances from 2012-2015, Blake Wood was a pleasant surprise in 2016 (3.99 ERA, 1.43 WHIP), so he'll look to continue that success. Louis Coleman (4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) also came over on a minor league deal. We could (and most likely will) see prospects Wandy Peralta and Austin Brice in that bullpen, and starting pitching prospects in the high minors include Keury Mella, Rookie Davis, and Sal Romano; any of them could be converted to relief and pushed up to the majors. For sure, not a very impressive team, but at the very least, Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, and Jose Peraza will be fun to watch on offense, and the two big arms of Amir Garrett and Robert Stephenson are worth tracking as well.
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