Thursday, March 30, 2017

2017 Season Preview: San Francisco Giants

Major Additions: Mark Melancon, Nick Hundley, Jimmy Rollins, Justin Ruggiano
Major Losses: Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Jake Peavy, Javier Lopez, Chris Heston
Strengths: Rotation, Catching Corps
Weaknesses: Offensive Depth, Bullpen Depth
Potential Breakout Stars: Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker, Ty Blach, Steven Okert, Tyler Beede, Austin Slater

The San Francisco battery will be among the best in baseball, with their excellent rotation (more on that later) and top notch catchers. Buster Posey, the 2012 NL MVP, is arguably baseball's best catcher, while Nick Hundley is one of baseball's best back-ups. Even Trevor Brown, the third stringer, hit five home runs in 75 games for the Giants last year, and he just turned 25 this offseason. Aside from Posey, no names stand out on offense, but Brandon Belt is one of baseball's most underrated hitters. Though he has never reached 20 home runs in a season, his high numbers of doubles and triples enable him to put up big offensive numbers even in cavernous AT&T Park. He put up a 138 wRC+ last season, and his career mark of 129 is comparable to some big names, like David Wright (133), Anthony Rizzo (131), Mark Teixeira (127), and Evan Longoria (126). You may not realize this because he hit "just" .275, but his .394 on-base percentage was good for fifth in the National League, behind only Joey Votto (.434), DJ LeMahieu (.416), Paul Goldschmidt (.411), and Freddie Freeman (.400). Main point: Brandon Belt is one of the best first baseman in baseball, even if nobody cares to take notice. Brandon Crawford will be another offensive and defensive leader, coming off a season where he set career highs in triples (11), stolen bases (7), batting average (.275), and on-base percentage (.342). Hunter Pence may be about to turn 34, but he still managed to slash .289/.357/.451 (121 wRC+) last year, and if injuries don't catch him, he doesn't look like he's slowing down. Joe Panik was great in 2015 (.312/.378/.455, 136 wRC+), but not so great in 2016 (.239/.315/.379, 89 wRC+), so he's a wild card for 2017. There's also Eduardo Nunez and Denard Span, with the only positional question mark being left field. Jarrett Parker (.236/.358/.394, 110 wRC+), Mac Williamson (.223/.315/.411, 100 wRC+), and Gorkys Hernandez (.259/.298/.463, 105 wRC+) could all share time there, and maybe even infielder Kelby Tomlinson (.292/.370/.330, 98 wRC+) could slide out there from time to time. There's also prospect Austin Slater, who reached AAA in 2016 and slashed .298/.381/.506, albeit in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. On the mound, it all begins with Madison Bumgarner. Though he's not quite his Los Angeles counterpart, Bumgarner has put up ERA's below 3.00 in each of the past four seasons while never letting his WHIP creep above 1.09. Johnny Cueto is nearly as good, having put up ERA's below 2.90 in five of the last six seasons. There's a slight drop off after the big two, but Matt Moore was solid in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery (4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) and Jeff Samardzija had a nice rebound season (3.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). For the fifth spot, Matt Cain has been a fixture in the San Fran rotation for a decade now, but his glory days of 2009-2012 are behind him. Ty Blach inexplicably came up and dominated in his short stint with the team, putting up a 1.06 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP over four games (two starts), allowing just eight hits in 17 innings. There's also swingman Albert Suarez, who quietly put up a 4.29 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 22 games (12 starts) as a rookie last year. If none of those options work out, top prospect Tyler Beede reached AA last season and is nearly ready, as are other prospects like Joan Gregorio and Andrew Suarez. The bullpen took a heavy hit with the losses of Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, and Javier Lopez to free agency (with Lopez retiring), though they did go out and add one of the best relievers in baseball, Mark Melancon (1.64 ERA, 0.90 WHIP). Derek Law (2.13 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) was great as a rookie last season, and Hunter Strickland (3.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and George Kontos (2.53 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) are available as well. A fourth big hit just occurred a few days ago, as Will Smith (3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) announced he would undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the season. The slew of departures/injuries leaves the team with little depth, so rookie Steven Okert will need to step up, along with fringe guys like Cory Gearrin (4.28 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and Josh Osich (4.71 ERA, 1.38 WHIP). Like the Dodgers, the Giants will be relying on star power, with theirs provided by Posey, Bumgarner, Cueto, Melancon, and Belt and supported by Crawford, Pence, Moore, Panik, and Law.

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