Major Additions: Ben Rowen
Major Losses: Bartolo Colon, James Loney, Logan Verrett, Jim Henderson, Jonathan Niese
Strengths: Rotation, Bench
Weaknesses: Offense
Potential Breakout Stars: Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Michael Conforto, Josh Smoker, T.J. Rivera
With the Mets, it's all about the rotation. The best rotation in baseball will hold teams to just a couple of runs per game, so if they hit at all, they should be able to win plenty of games. Unfortunately, the problem with the Mets is that there isn't much offense to go around. Yoenis Cespedes (.280/.354/.530, 134 wRC+) represents the only big time threat in the lineup, while guys like Neil Walker, Jay Bruce, and Curtis Granderson will have to support Cespedes' bat. How Lucas Duda returns from his back injury will go a long way in determining where the Mets finish. He slashed .244/.352/.486 (132 wRC+) in 2015, but just .229/.302/.412 (91 wRC+) before he was shut down after 47 games in 2016. If he returns to his pre-injury form, there will be enough to offense to support Cespedes. If not, that job will fall to Michael Conforto, who was great in his 56 game rookie stint in 2015 (.270/.335/.506, 133 wRC+) but experienced the classic sophomore slump in 2016 (.220/.310/.414, 96 wRC+). If you're looking for positive signs on the 24 year old outfielder, it's that he improved his walk rate from 8.8% in 2015 to 10.3% in 2016. On the pessimist's side, his strikeout rate jumped from 20.1% to 25.6%, making him more of a True Outcome hitter (home runs, strikeouts, walks). Other question marks include Travis d'Arnaud and veteran David Wright, the face of the franchise who has played in just 75 games over the past two seasons. Unfortunately, Wright will miss the beginning of the season with shoulder issues, and he can't be counted on in the long run. The outfield situation is the most interesting with this team, as Cespedes, Granderson, and Bruce are currently slated to start, but Conforto and Juan Lagares are very solid for bench bats or, in Lagares' case, gloves. Joining Conforto and Lagares on this strong Mets' bench are Jose Reyes (who will start in Wright's absence), Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, and Team Israel star Ty Kelly. The rotation is where this team shines. Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom are two of the best young starters in baseball, followed by the lone veteran in the group, Matt Harvey. After dominating the National League from 2012-2015 (combined 2.53 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), he struggled in 2016 (4.86 ERA, 1.47 WHIP), but for a number three starter, that profile isn't too bad, especially considering he turns 28 right at the start of the season. After those first three, there's the trio of young arms in Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman, and Seth Lugo. Matz is the most established of the three, having made 28 starts over two seasons and putting up a 3.16 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Gsellman and Lugo made their debuts last season, with both pitching very well. Both could be breakout stars, with Gsellman being just 23 and Lugo possessing a curveball that has broken Statcast records for spin rate. Lastly, there's Zack Wheeler, who has not pitched in the majors since 2014 but who is as talented as anybody in the rotation and is still just 26. Wheeler probably won't crack the rotation out of spring training, but when you have to leave two of Gsellman, Lugo, and Wheeler out of the rotation, that's a fantastic problem to have. In the bullpen, Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed return in the back end, and Hansel Robles and Fernando Salas will play supporting roles. Josh Edgin will look to bounce back from injury now that he's fully healthy, and young lefties (and former first round picks by teams other than the Mets) Sean Gilmartin and Josh Smoker will look to break out. Overall, it grades out as an average bullpen. The theme is clear here: the starting rotation will make them go, and whether they win or not will be contingent on the non-Yoenis Cespedes hitters stepping up.
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