Major Additions: Adam Eaton, Matt Wieters, Joe Blanton, Adam Lind, Vance Worley
Major Losses: Mark Melancon, Wilson Ramos, Danny Espinosa, Ben Revere, Matt Belisle, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez
Strengths: Offense, Rotation
Weaknesses: Bullpen
Potential Breakout Stars: Koda Glover, Michael Taylor, Pedro Severino, Trevor Gott
The Nationals aren't returning as strong a team in 2017 as they had in 2016, but that 2016 team was pretty darn good. The Nationals still have a potent offense and starting rotation, with the only glaring hole being at the back of the bullpen. Starting with the offense, the trio of Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, and Trea Turner will look to do big things. After watching him in 2015, we all know what Harper is capable of, so let's just chart his down 2016 to bad BABIP luck (he hit just .264 on balls in play last year, well below his career average of .317) and hope he rebounds. Meanwhile, Murphy is coming off a career year (.347/.390/.595, 156 wRC+) that nearly netted him the NL MVP Award, and his new, fly ball-oriented approach in 2016 should make at least most of the production sustainable in 2017. Turner may regress a little bit after his monster rookie season (.342/.370/.567, 147 wRC+), but he'll be moving to his natural shortstop position and, like Murphy, atleast most of that production should be sustainable, even the power. We can't just say he had good BABIP luck, as his .388 mark exactly matched his minor league average over 268 games. Newcomer Adam Eaton and his .357 career on-base percentage will be a very welcome addition to the top of the lineup, just as Matt Wieters and his 17.8 career fWAR will be a welcome addition behind the plate. Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth are back, too, and though Werth may end up losing playing time to Michael Taylor if father time catches up with him, Rendon did have a nice bounce-back season last year. Lastly, Ryan Zimmerman may be coming off a horrible season (.218/.272/.370, 67 wRC+), but there is more room for optimism than you might think. Per Baseball Savant, Zimmerman's 93.7 MPH average exit velocity was the ninth highest in baseball, ahead of names like Mike Trout (91.7), Kris Bryant (89.8), and Josh Donaldson (93.1). The problem was that he had an extremely low average launch angle, meaning he was hitting the ball as hard as anybody in baseball, but he was pounding it straight into the ground. Murphy credits trying to hit the ball in the air more with for his success, and he has worked with Zimmerman to be cognizant of the fact that fly balls are better than ground balls. It has been an all-too-common misconception in the baseball world, but pounding the ball 100 MPH into the dirt does not create hits, and Zimmerman will try to change that approach in 2017. Taylor, Adam Lind, Stephen Drew, and Jose Lobaton will make up a solid core for the bench. On the mound, it all starts with the pair of aces in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Scherzer won the NL Cy Young Award, and Strasburg was in the running for the award as well before his elbow began bothering him in August. As of August 1st, Strasburg was 15-1 with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over 20 starts, but the nagging injuries caused him to go 0-3 with a 12.86 ERA and a 2.29 WHIP over his final four starts. If he can stay healthy, Scherzer-Strasburg may be the best one-two punch in the league. Don't forget about Tanner Roark, who quietly put up a 2.83 ERA in over 200 innings. Gio Gonzalez, just as he is from start to start, is a wild card, but he is talented enough to bounce back from a rough 2016. It's easy to forget that Joe Ross is still just 23, and his big league numbers so far (3.52 ERA, 1.22 WHIP over 35 games [32 starts]) show that he's ready to come into his own in 2017. In case things go awry in the rotation, there's A.J. Cole, Austin Voth, and possibly even Erick Fedde who could get starts. Vance Worley was added as a bullpen arm, but he could get spot starts as well. In the bullpen, Mark Melancon left a massive hole that is still very much there, but Shawn Kelley (2.64 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) was terrific last season and should take over the closer's role. Blake Treinen is tremendously talented with his wicked 97 MPH two seamer, but command and overall pitchability issues have kept him from realizing his true potential. He did put up a 2.28 ERA last year, but I think he can be better. Koda Glover, who as of 2015 was still the closer for the Oklahoma State Cowboys, has exceeded all expectations and will take on a larger role this year. Newcomer Joe Blanton will be a swiss army knife, and will likely share long relief duties with Sammy Solis. Trevor Gott and flamethrowing newcomer Enny Romero could have breakout years. Overall, the Nationals have holes, but they play in a weak division (for now) and should not be counted out as World Series contenders.
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