Major Additions: Scott Feldman, Drew Storen, Louis Coleman, Desmond Jennings
Major Losses: Brandon Phillips, Dan Straily
Strengths: Offensive Diversity
Weaknesses: Pitching
Potential Breakout Stars: Jose Peraza, Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson, Arismendy Alcantara
The Reds' pitching is dreadful, but their offense is decent enough that they won't be a laughing stock. Obviously, everything centers around Joey Votto insane .425 career on-base percentage, while Adam Duvall brings the power after breaking out for 33 home runs last season. Billy Hamilton has the speed, having stolen 56, 57, and 58 stolen bases in the last three seasons, respectively. If I'm any good at analyzing trends, he should steal exactly 59 bases this season. Jose Peraza could be another contact/speed bat, as he slashed .324/.352/.411 (103 wRC+) with 21 stolen bases in his first extended MLB action last season. Eugenio Suarez has shown some surprising power in the majors, knocking 34 home runs in 256 games over the past two seasons, including 21 last year. If Devin Mesoraco can get healthy, it will be a huge boon for the team, because he showed what he was capable of in his big 2014 season (.273/.359/.534, 147 wRC+). Unfortunately, he's been limited to just 39 games over the past two seasons. The pitching staff, unfortunately, is dreadful. Scott Feldman will be the opening day starter, despite being 34 years old and coming off a season in which 35 of his 40 appearances were in relief. Brandon Finnegan was successful in his transition to the rotation last season, putting up a 3.98 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 31 starts. After that, though, things fall apart. Tim Adleman put up a 4.00 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 13 starts as a rookie last year, but he was also making his debut at 28 and has likely hit his ceiling. After those three, there are three top prospects looking to make an impact in 2017. Cody Reed made ten starts for the Reds, but his 7.36 ERA and 1.80 WHIP weren't particularly pretty. Robert Stephenson has a higher ceiling, though he didn't fare much better than Reed, putting up a 6.08 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP over his eight starts. Then, there's Amir Garrett, the former St. John's basketball star who put up a 2.55 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 25 games (23 starts) at AA Pensacola and AAA Louisville in 2016. The 6'5" lefty could make as big of or a bigger impact than Reed or Stephenson in 2017 and beyond. Two more starters, Homer Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani, will open the season on the disabled list, though both could return soon. The bullpen is filled with starters-turned-relievers, led by Raisel Iglesias, Tony Cingrani, and Michael Lorenzen. As of 2014, all three of them were starters, but they all found success after transitioning to shorter stints. Drew Storen is a new addition, and though he's been one of the most inconsistent players in baseball during his career, when he's on, he's on. In 2014, he put up a 1.12 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, and he'll have stretches where he's nearly un-hittable. In 2016, he put up a 6.21 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over 38 appearances with the Blue Jays, but those numbers dropped to 3.44 and 0.87 during his 19 appearances with the Mariners. Despite making just nine appearances from 2012-2015, Blake Wood was a pleasant surprise in 2016 (3.99 ERA, 1.43 WHIP), so he'll look to continue that success. Louis Coleman (4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) also came over on a minor league deal. We could (and most likely will) see prospects Wandy Peralta and Austin Brice in that bullpen, and starting pitching prospects in the high minors include Keury Mella, Rookie Davis, and Sal Romano; any of them could be converted to relief and pushed up to the majors. For sure, not a very impressive team, but at the very least, Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, and Jose Peraza will be fun to watch on offense, and the two big arms of Amir Garrett and Robert Stephenson are worth tracking as well.
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