Showing posts with label Ryan Prager. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ryan Prager. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Cleveland Guardians

Full list of draftees

I always enjoy writing the Guardians' draft review because they always draft interesting players, and this year was no different. With four of the top seventy picks, including three picks in a seven pick span at #64, #66, and #70, they also had more draft capital than most other teams in the back of the first round. Usually a team to chase athletic, up-the-middle contact hitters, they pivoted this year to take hulking sluggers in both the first and fourth rounds as part of a class that began with six hitters in their first seven picks. After successfully injecting significant offensive upside into their system, they pivoted to pitching beginning in the sixth round and took eleven pitchers with their final fifteen picks, giving their lauded pitching development system plenty more clay to work with. Interestingly, there are a lot of buy-low candidates in this class (beginning with first rounder Jace LaViolette), a profile Cleveland has targeted with some frequency lately.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-27: OF Jace LaViolette, Texas A&M
Slot value: $3.38 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #23. MLB Pipeline: #20. Baseball America: #17.
Few teams draft as consistently on-brand as the Guardians, yet this first pick went against virtually everything they've ever targeted. Besides being known for drafting and developing a ton of arms, Cleveland's type is very well known when it comes to position players – young (often prep), up the middle talent with strong bat to ball even at the expense of some power. Jace LaViolette is, well, not that. Standing all of 6'6", 230 pounds, he showed up to his first fall practice in College Station back in 2022 and virtually from day one stood out as a potential superstar. He lived up to the hype, blasting 21 home runs to set a Texas A&M freshman record in 2023 before cranking it up a notch with 29 home runs and a .305/.449/.726 slash line in 2024. Widely considered a frontrunner for the first overall pick entering the season, he instead took a step back in 2025, dropping to "just" 18 home runs while his batting average fell to .258. LaViolette is a big, tall slugger. It's a tremendously forceful left handed swing that has produced plus-plus raw power in the past, though it played closer to "just" plus in 2025, and he can send the ball out to any part of any ballpark. Still, he prefers to go to the pull side with a swing designed to lift the ball to right field. Many try, but LaViolette overwhelmingly succeeds at doing so – a skill that is highly correlated to major league slugging success. This will enable him to tap every bit of his prodigious raw power in games going forward. The big issue here, of course, is strikeouts. They were already a concern in 2024, when he struck out 24.2% of the time, and he actually rose to 25.2% in 2025. That's high. The Houston-area product offsets the swing and miss a bit with an extremely patient approach that forces pitchers to come into the zone and led to a sky high 21.8% walk rate in 2025, but pro pitchers will pound him in the zone and his below average bat to ball skills will be tested. Cleveland does not need him to be a .300 hitter. Rather, he needs to make just enough contact to get the ball up in the air and run into his fair share of home runs. There are many similarities to Yankees prospect Spencer Jones, another towering left handed slugger who struggled mightily with swing and miss. Jones, who was drafted in a similar spot at #25 overall out of Vanderbilt in 2022, has been extremely streaky in the minors but has been red hot in 2025, now knocking on the door of Yankee Stadium. Also similarly to Jones, LaViolette is a very good defender for his size. He runs well underway once he gets that big frame moving and looks to be above average in right field, where his strong arm will be an asset as well. There has been some talk about him getting a shot in center field, where he saw the bulk of his time in College Station the past two seasons, and sticking there would be a very nice bonus to the profile. All in all, there is 30-40 home run upside here with high on-base percentages if he can clean it up inside the strike zone, with a high side outcome looking something like a more athletic Adam Dunn (likewise a Houston-area native).

2-64: SS Dean Curley, Tennessee
Slot value: $1.38 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #35. MLB Pipeline: #60. Baseball America: #39.
Dean Curley is another very interesting buy low pick. A Southern California native, he immediately hit his way into the Tennessee starting lineup as a freshman (though the age of a college sophomore), positioning himself as a potential first round pick in 2025. He got off to a hot start and his name started coming up in top ten conversations, but he faded just a little bit as the season wore on and scouts seemed to sour on his projections. Personally, I still see a very solid prospect here and I think he is great value in the back of the second round. Curley has a big league frame at 6'3", 220 pounds, maintaining a lean build while packing on plenty of strength. He channels that strength into a simple, efficient right handed swing that produces above average raw power, a grade that could get to plus as he continues to fill out. A patient hitter, he manages the strike zone well and regularly puts himself in counts where he can do damage, helping project for a potential average hit tool even if the pure bat to ball is a tick below. Much was made about his uneven sophomore season, but at the end of the day he still increased his home run total (12 to 14), improved each leg of his slash line (.285/.386/.502 to .315/.435/.531), and improved both his strikeout (17.5% to 16.0%) and walk (11.6% to 15.3%) rates over what was praised as a strong freshman campaign. Offensively, Curley projects as a potential 20+ home run hitter with middling on-base percentages. Defensively, there are question marks. He moves well for his size and has the athleticism and more than enough arm strength to handle any position on the field, including shortstop where he played almost every game in 2024 and saw some time in 2025. However, the biggest shadow on his 2025 season may have been a case of the yips. He routinely struggled to make basic throws and often looked like the game had sped up on him, which was not the case in 2024. The game will only get faster in professional baseball and he'll need to sink or swim if he wants to remain an infielder. The Volunteers moved Curley around to second and third base in an effort to get him more comfortable, and we'll ultimately see what the Guardians choose to do. If it really was just a one time case of the yips that can be cured with an offseason of low stakes training, he may very well end up a big league shortstop in the Willy Adames mold.

CBB-66: OF Aaron Walton, Arizona
Slot value: $1.32 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #144. MLB Pipeline: #161. Baseball America: #154.
Aaron Walton really, really quietly snuck up draft boards late, and even though I had him ahead of MLB Pipeline and Baseball America, I felt that I was probably under-ranking him and at least in terms of draft position that seems to be the case. He began his career at Samford and while he didn't set the world on fire, he showed enough for the Bulldogs to earn a transfer opportunity most of the way across the country at Arizona. It was there in Tucson that he blossomed into the day one pick he became, putting up better numbers against a tougher Big 12 schedule than he ever did against Samford's SoCon schedule. Walton lacks a carrying tool but does everything well. A relatively patient hitter, he will take his walks but doesn't miss an opportunity to put the ball in play, leading to a high on-base profile. The swing does get steep, but he adjusts well in and out of the zone and shows strong plate coverage. He's listed at the same 6'3", 220 pound height and weight as Dean Curley above him, and while he can't quite match Curley's above average power, he shows some thump from the right side and brings that power when he turns on pitches. In all, it's a profile that could produce 10-15 home runs annually with high on-base percentages. The Nashville-area product is just an average runner but he plays hard in center field and has a good chance to stick there, unless pushed off by a quicker defender. The median projection here is that of a fourth outfielder that can handle all three outfield positions and add some length to the bottom of the lineup, but the upside is an every day jack of all trades who hits a few spots below the middle of the lineup.

CBB-70: RHP Will Hynes, Lorne Park SS [ON]
Slot value: $1.19 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #163. Baseball America: #166.
Will Hynes was the first player drafted this year that had not been on my radar, and most publications had him pegged a few rounds later. While he may have flown under the radar here in the States, he was the talk of the town for Canadian scouts who saw his stuff take a step forward this spring. The fastball now sits in the low 90's and touches 95 at peak, playing above its velocity with significant running action that could make it a heat-seeking missile against right handed hitters as he adds more velocity. He is steadily gaining more feel for a high spin slider with nice sweep, average to above average much of the time but flashing plus at its best when he gets good finish on it. Hynes also throws a changeup with parachute action that has been inching forward, looking average for now with more in the tank down the line. The 6'2" righty has a very clean, easy delivery that helps him show above average command for a high school pitcher and should enable him to naturally add velocity as he fills out. Born triple sevens on 07/07/07, he's young for the class and has that much more time to grow as a pitcher. While Hynes might not have the explosive stuff or the same high upside as other high school draftees in the same draft range, the Toronto-area native comes more pro ready than most and could grow into a mid-rotation starter. He had been committed to Wake Forest and while the Guardians drafted him earlier than many expected, it was rumored to be a firm commitment and he still may be expensive.

3-101: OF Nolan Schubart, Oklahoma State
Slot value: $759,400. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #98. MLB Pipeline: #126. Baseball America: #63.
I mentioned that first rounder Jace LaViolette was virtually the opposite of Cleveland's archetype, but Nolan Schubart might be even more extreme in that direction – at least LaViolette is a solid athlete with a chance to play center field early in his career. Like LaViolette, Schubart stepped onto campus already a highly touted prospect, then produced a huge freshman season in 2023 before setting the world on fire in 2024 with 23 home runs and a ridiculous .370/.513/.838 slash line. There's an argument to be made that opposing pitching coaches had a bigger circle around his name than any other hitter in the Big 12. Like LaViolette, 2025 was a bit of a step back from a production standpoint and while he had been projected comfortably inside the top fifty picks entering the season, he ultimately fell outside the top one hundred. Schubart, of course, stands out for his power. He blasted 59 home runs in three seasons in Stillwater with monster, plus-plus raw juice that he gets to every bit of in games. It all comes from a burly 6'5", 225 pound frame that generates elite bat speed and ridiculous torque, enough to send this baseball 517 feet to the opposite field. He's a very patient hitter that has drawn 139 walks over three years and 164 games, forcing pitchers to come into the zone and helping him put up a .464 on-base percentage in that span. Unfortunately, pitchers do have success when they hit their spots in the zone. His pure bat to ball is well below average, leading to elevated strikeout totals. He has a tendency to lean over the plate as the pitch is delivered to really channel everything he has into crushing the baseball, which can cause him to get tied up when he's not on time. The projection here is that of a potential 30+ home run hitter but with low batting averages. Joey Gallo is always the classic comp here, though something like Jack Cust is also possible if he can scare pitchers out of the zone enough and take his walks. Schubart will have to make contact because he provides little to no defensive value. He's a lumbering, well below average runner for which playing a fringy left field will be a best case scenario, with first base or full time DH a real possibility. If he can recapture some of what he showed in 2024, the Guardians will be just fine with him at DH. He hails from the small town of Durand, Michigan, sitting between Flint and Lansing but Cleveland fans will be relieved to know he left the state for Oklahoma State rather than attend Michigan.

4-132: 3B Luke Hill, Mississippi
Slot value: $561,400. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #135. MLB Pipeline: #98. Baseball America: #105.
While Jace LaViolette and Nolan Schubart bring extreme power-over-everything profiles, Luke Hill bears more in common with Aaron Walton as a more balanced, steady profile. Yet another highly regarded prep prospect, he began his career at Arizona State and hit well as a freshman, then transferred back closer to home to attend Ole Miss for his sophomore and junior seasons. While his 2024 was a bit quieter, he stepped things up in 2025 and emerged as one of the better all-around prospects in the region. He is a very professional hitter that walked more than he struck out in both seasons in Oxford, leading to a .459 on-base percentage against tough competition in 2025. He has solid bat to ball as well, making for an overall above average hit tool. There is some present strength in his sturdy 6'1" frame and which helps him produce average raw power at peak, though his simple right handed swing and level approach lead to fringier power in games and he'll likely top out at 10-15 home runs per season in the majors. The defensive profile is similar to the offensive one, with average tools across the board including a steady glove and moderate arm strength. With average speed, he should make all the plays at the hot corner and he has just enough arm to stick over there. He can also handle second base if needed. Overall, the Baton Rouge native projects as a steady utility infielder though he will be stretched at shortstop.

6-192: LHP Nelson Keljo, Oregon State
Slot value: $325,100. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #182. Baseball America: #350.
Jesuit High School in Portland, Oregon has become a pitching factory as of late, producing two recent first round picks in Mick Abel (2020) and Noble Meyer (2023). Sandwiched between the two of them (and teammates with both) in the 2022 graduating class was Nelson Keljo, himself a highly regarded prep pitcher drawing scouts of his own in his draft year. Keljo made it to Oregon State anyways, where he pitched out of the bullpen to strong results (especially in 2024) before moving to the rotation in 2025. He was more good than great, and the Guardians grab him here in the sixth round. The 6'4" lefty has a big arm, sitting low 90's and touching as high as 97 in short stints with riding life that makes the pitch play above its velocity and jump on hitters. He mixes in an average slider with downward plane, though he prefers to gas hitters up with the fastball to get strikeouts. Keljo also throws a solid changeup that has taken a step forward in Corvallis, now looking like a potential above average offering with further refinement. He's a big guy that uses his height more than his athleticism to work down the mound, and after running a respectable 7.3% walk rate out of the bullpen in 2024, that number ballooned to 12.9% in 2025. If he is to remain a starter, Keljo will need rein that command back in as well as bring his secondary stuff along if he wants to start. The good news is that the Cleveland organization is a great place to do that, or he could let his fastball tick up and lean on it in a bullpen role.

9-282: LHP Ryan Prager, Texas A&M
Slot value: $197,200. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #170. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #177.
Ryan Prager has taken a bit of a circuitous route to get here. A relatively unheralded prospect as an underclassman at Texas A&M, unlike many other names in this Guardians class, he spent his freshman season in the rotation before missing his sophomore year with Tommy John surgery. Returning in 2024, he burst onto the scene as one of the most dominant arms in the SEC and, despite lacking big stuff, found himself drafted in the third round by the Angels. However, the two sides could not come to a deal and Prager became the top unsigned college prospect to return to school, where he had large NIL deals lined up. Unfortunately, both he and the rest of the Aggies had a disappointing season, watching his ERA inflate by over a run while his strikeout rate dropped from 31.2% to 20.9% and his walk rate rose from 5.0% to 6.0%. In 2024, Prager pitched with a fastball around 90 that topped out around 94, lacking big velocity but playing up with ride through the zone. That fastball often lived in the upper 80's in 2025. He throws an average slider and a straight changeup, helping round out an arsenal that can really play up due to his plus command of the baseball. However, his struggles to miss bats this season highlight the small margin of error these light stuff-arms work with, as just a small step backward bumped him from the third to the ninth round. Set to turn 23 in October, he'll look to add that tick back to his stuff and perhaps become a back-end starter. The 6'3" lefty is plenty physical and figures to be durable in whatever role he takes on.

14-432: SS Anthony Silva, Texas Christian
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #439.
Anthony Silva represents another buy-low draft pick. One of the top prep prospects in the state of Texas in 2022, he withdrew from the draft in order to attend TCU and at first the move looked to pay off as he hit .330/.416/.471 as the Horned Frogs' starting shortstop as a freshman in 2023. Entering his draft-eligible sophomore season as a potential first round pick, he instead took a step backwards and found his name discussed more in the third to fifth round range. He instead elected to return to school, where he ranked two spots behind Ryan Prager as the #3 unsigned college prospect, but unfortunately did not have the bounce back season he was hoping for in 2025. Silva has shown to be an average hitter over the past two seasons. He's patient at the plate, but pitchers have attacked him in the zone more often due to his lack of impact and he falls behind in counts too often. There is solid bat to ball, enough to keep his strikeouts reasonable, though it has regressed as his strikeout rate rose from just 12.5% as a freshman to a combined 18.1% over the past two seasons. Always wiry and skinny, a portion of Silva's draw as a prospect stemmed from the projection in his 6'2" frame that could help him grow into average or better power in time. That power never materialized and the seven home runs he hit as a freshman remains his career high, and at the point he projects to average about ten home runs per season at the big league level. The San Antonio native still brings value on defense, where he projects to stick at shortstop. Depending on when you saw him, you could have seen a steady, fluid defender with plenty of range to be an above average defender there, though he has been just a bit stiffer over the past couple seasons. Overall, if Silva can recapture his freshman magic, he has a shot to be a high contact utility man at the big league level. He turned 22 shortly after the draft.

15-462: RHP Evan Chrest, Florida State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #315.
Evan Chrest burst onto the scene with a huge freshman season as Jacksonville's ace, but he took a step back in his sophomore season as his strikeout rate dropped and his ERA more than doubled. Florida State still came calling, and he came out with three strong midweek starts (including one against his former team) before leaving his fourth start with an elbow injury, ending his season. Chrest sits in the low 90's with his fastball and touches 95 at peak, not overwhelming velocity but enough. The fastball plays up due to riding life through the zone and a low release, causing it to jump on hitters and sneak over bats at the top of the zone. He throws both a true sweeping slider and a tighter cutter, while his changeup shows nice fade to the arm side and gives him a fourth reliable pitch. He's a good athlete that repeats his delivery well and shows above average command when healthy, giving him a real chance to start. On the flip side, he'll need to prove that health coming back from his elbow injury and at an even six feet tall, he's not the largest starting pitcher in the world. The Tampa native could see his stuff take a step forward in the bullpen, though that would feel like a waste of his deep arsenal. The Guardians are certainly a good organization for him to sneak up on analysts and come out as a late draft success story.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

The top ten unsigned college prospects returning to school for 2025

It took me longer than usual to get all my draft reviews done, but with those out of the way, it's time to take a look at the best prospects to eschew pro ball for now. We'll start with the college prospects, and first let's look at the five from last year's list to go unsigned. Of the five, only one had a truly successful season, as #2 Lebarron Johnson (Texas) pitched his way to a fifth round selection by the Rockies. #1 Tanner Witt (Texas) couldn't stay healthy and #4 Christian Little (LSU) stalled, so both signed for slightly above-slot bonuses on day three to the Mets and Mariners, respectively. Meanwhile, #3 Terry Busse (Georgia Tech) and #5 Joseph Gonzalez (Auburn) struggled mightily and went undrafted again.

This year's class of returners is much more robust, likely due to the continued growth of NIL opportunities that give college draftees added leverage. Last year, just five college players on my draft list went unsigned, while this year that number jumped to thirteen. There were a number of themes among those players, chiefly among them big time power combined with hit tool questions. 6/13 fall into that category, while unsurprisingly, youth and eligibility played a big factor. Each of the first six and eight of the top nine have multiple years of eligibility remaining, while six of the top seven will play the entire coming college season at age-21. After Texas took the top two players on last year's list, LSU was the only school to put two on this year's list, and I was surprised to see only one player hit the transfer portal (unsurprisingly to LSU).

1. LHP Ryan Prager, Texas A&M (my rank: #69)
Drafted – 3rd round (pick #81), Los Angeles Angels
This was a surprise. After missing 2023 with Tommy John surgery, Ryan Prager returned in 2024 as one of the best pitchers in the SEC and shot up draft boards due to his feel for pitching and sneaky stuff. Amid the controversy of head coach Jim Schlossnagle's abrupt exit to rival Texas, the Angels drafted Prager in the third round in what seemed like a straightforward sign. Despite the double whammy of being a college arm drafted in the top one hundred picks (usually a guarantee to sign) as well as not having the same head coach to come back to, he still declined Los Angeles and returned to College Station to pitch for new Aggie head coach Michael Earley. That's a massive win and will go a long way to ensuring a smooth transition in College Station. Prager himself is a bit of an old school pitcher. His fastball parks around 90 and tops out at 94, showing massive riding life negated a bit by an ultra high, over the top release point. The pitch shows some cutting action, too, and it got great results in 2024. His slider gets late drop and performed admirably, looking like an above average breaker, while his straight changeup gives him a third at least average pitch. Everything plays up for Prager because he works effectively in the zone with plus command and high pitching IQ, mixing and matching his stuff effectively to keep hitters off it. The 6'3" lefty also brings some deception in his delivery with a deep arm plunge that helps hide the ball from view, rocking back over into his over the top delivery. Already a high pitchability arm, Prager will return to school with yet another year of polish in his age-22 season and will look to frustrate SEC hitters again. He'll be a few months shy of his 23rd birthday when the 2025 draft rolls around, but he'll still have leverage as a redshirt junior and even if the signing bonus is lower, the Dallas native figures to make plenty of money through NIL.

2. SS Jalin Flores, Texas (my rank: #103)
Undrafted
Not only did Texas pry Jim Schlossnagle away from Texas A&M, they'll also unexpectedly bring back star shortstop Jalin Flores. After bringing back #1 Tanner Witt and #2 Lebarron Johnson from my draft list a year ago, Texas has three of the four top-2 returners over the past two seasons. It must be the barbecue. Flores was a very well-known prospect in the 2022 draft out of the San Antonio high school ranks, clocking in at #82 on my draft board and the #4 high school position player prospect to reach campus. He was overmatched as a freshman in 2023, struggling in a part-time role, but jumped into the lineup every day in 2024 and put up a massive season to regain most of his lost draft stock. At a listed 6'2", 210 pounds, this is a big league body with long limbs and room to add additional strength to his already physical frame. He uses his strength well in the box, effortlessly tapping his average raw power in games and making good contact against all pitch types when he stays within the zone. It's a really natural operation, one which should serve him well as he fills out and improves his approach. The latter, though, is very pressing and likely led to teams not meeting his bonus demands. Flores is an extreme free-swinger at the plate, often looking like he lacks a plan as he chases more than a third of the time and struck out (20.1%) nearly three times as often as he walked (7.6%). I'm personally a believer in his natural hitting ability and I think if the new Schlossnagle regime can get him executing a plan in the box, he has a chance to jump into the top two rounds in 2025. Interestingly, his defensive profile is the opposite in some ways. While he's not flashy and doesn't run well, his excellent body control and strong feel for the dirt has kept him at shortstop thus far, and he has a shot to continue there in pro ball. Even if he's pushed to third base by a more explosive defender, he could be well above average there with a strong arm to boot.

3. SS Anthony Silva, Texas Christian (my rank: #117)
Undrafted
Jalin Flores and Anthony Silva have seen their careers parallel each other to an eerie degree. Born just two weeks apart in July 2003, they attended rival high schools just four miles apart in the San Antonio suburbs and ranked as the #6 and #4 position player prospects to reach campus from the high school Class of 2022, respectively (ranking #89 and #82). While Flores struggled as a freshman at Texas, Silva was excellent for TCU and pushed his way into the fringes of the first round conversation entering 2024. However, as Flores exploded, Silva moved in the opposite direction with a tough sophomore season, and both sophomore-eligible prospects wound up near each other yet again ranking #103 and #117 on my board, respectively. Both priced themselves out of the draft, and they'll both return to their respective schools in the Lone Star State as they rank #2 and #3 on this list. Silva, like I mentioned, was a star for the Horned Frogs in 2023, slashing .330/.416/.471 with just a 12.5% strikeout rate, but dropped to just .268/.369/.384 in 2024 with an 18.6% strikeout rate. Local evaluators noted that he looked stiffer than before. Still, Silva's track record between high school and his big freshman season is plenty enough to remain interested. At his best, he's a very disciplined hitter that makes plenty of contact, adjusting to balls all over the zone to use the whole field effectively with a line drive bat. Listed with almost the exact same measurables as Flores (6'2", 200 pounds), he also has room to grow into more strength but to this point he has not, with fringy exit velocities pointing to 5-10 home runs per season if things don't change. But with high contact rates and potential strength gains, he could easily elevate that projection in 2025. Silva's real selling point, though, is his glove. As a freshman, he glided around the dirt with smooth actions and plenty of arm strength to project as above average at the position, to the point where he really wouldn't have to hit much to provide value at the major league level. He didn't look quite as flashy in 2024, though, and if he continues on that trend he'll be forced to second or third base. Back in Fort Worth, he'll look to return to his freshman self and push back into the top couple of rounds.

4. OF Chris Stanfield, Auburn -> Louisiana State (my rank: #120)
Undrafted
With the way NIL money gets doled out nowadays, Chris Stanfield might have gotten something better than a day two draft selection – an opportunity to transfer to LSU. Stanfield is no stranger to the draft, having ranked #182 on my 2022 board out of high school in Tallahassee, spurning teams at the time so he could attend Auburn. He jumped into the starting lineup as a freshman and has performed admirably over the past two seasons, though he never put up the big numbers he hoped for and will now head west to Baton Rouge. Still, he improved his ranking (on my board at least) by 62 slots up to #120 this year and brings a very interesting skillset to the table. He was just barely eligible this year, turning 21 in July only four days before the cutoff, so he'll still be roughly age-appropriate next year. Still projectable at 6'2", it's a skinny frame that should add more power as he matures and continues to add lean strength. For now, it's a line drive approach from a simple right handed swing that beyond strength gains, could easily add pop if he just looked to turn on the ball more. For now, the exit velocities are fringy and haven't translated to much game power. He's a patient hitter at the plate, making plenty of contact when he swings but sometimes getting overly passive and getting into trouble in deep counts. Another season in college, now under the tutelage of Jay Johnson at LSU, should help him learn to leverage the ball better for more power while controlling his at bats a bit better. Stanfield is also a plus runner who will compete for the center field job in Baton Rouge, and he could continue to stick up the middle in pro ball. That takes some pressure off his bat as well, though he may not need it if he brings everything together. It's a profile that could explode this year.

5. LHP Cade Obermueller, Iowa (my rank: #150)
Drafted – 19th round (pick #585), Texas Rangers
Cade Obermueller joined the names above him as a highly regarded freshman reaching campus, the #7 pitcher to do so from the high school Class of 2022 after ranking #124 on my 2022 board, and he wasn't quite ready to leave his hometown Hawkeyes after two seasons. After spending his freshman season in the bullpen, he shined in the Cape Cod League that summer (1.83 ERA, 35/11 K/BB in 19.2 IP) and jumped into Iowa's ultra talented weekend rotation alongside Brody Brecht (Rockies, CBA round) and Marcus Morgan (Phillies, 9th round). Head coach Rick Heller thought he was going to have to completely rebuild his rotation in 2025, so bringing back Obermueller is a happy surprise and a massive win. Back at school, the Iowa City native will look to prove to teams that he can stick in the rotation long term, rather than move back to the bullpen as many project. The fastball sits in the low 90's and reaches 97 in short stints with sinking and running action, while his sweeping slider dives across the plate and looks to be a plus pitch. Those two pitches right there, from an ultra low lefty sidearm slot no less, will be Obermueller's ticket to the big leagues in some capacity. However, he hasn't thrown his changeup much and his below average command regularly puts him behind in the count, so hitters are less willing to chase his quality stuff. Throw in that he's just 5'11", 160 pounds, and it's a pretty straightforward two pitch sidearm relief profile. Back on campus, Obermueller will have three boxes to check: bulk up, bring the changeup along, and throw more strikes. If he can do maybe two of those three things, someone will take a shot on him as a starter and the move to return to school will pay off. If not, it's a pretty nasty relief profile as is.

6. OF Harrison Didawick, Virginia (my rank: #152)
Undrafted
Harrison Didawick broke into the UVA lineup as a freshman but didn't hit much, then exploded in 2024 as his home run total jumped from 4 to 23 and his OPS jumped from .794 to 1.056. Still, concerns about his swing and miss tendencies kept teams from matching his high bonus demands, and he'll return to Charlottesville for his junior season, where he'll turn 22 shortly before the 2025 draft. Didawick stands out for his power, specifically his game power. Using a short left handed stroke, he has a quick trigger and ambushes pitches over the plate to send them out with great consistency, his 23 home runs last year tying Jake Gelof's (now with the Dodgers) one year old single season UVA home run record. The pure raw power is definitely closer to above average than plus, but the loft in his left handed swing and his natural ability to elevate the ball help him tap all of it. The hit tool, though, is a concern. He struck out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances in 2024 and came up empty on more than 30% of his swings, pointing to below average bat to ball ability. He's reasonably patient and walked in 14% of his plate appearances, a nice number, but pro pitching will attack him in the zone and it's not clear how consistently he'll be able to handle it at the upper levels and in MLB. With fringy to average defensive tools that will keep him in an outfield corner long term, potentially even left field, the pressure will be on his bat and for him to make much more consistent contact. He'll look to do just that at UVA in 2025, where he'll still be 21 through the College World Series (actually set to turn 22 the day after the championship).

7. OF Zack Stewart, Missouri State (my rank: #166)
Undrafted
The first mid-major prospect on this list, Zack Stewart not only spurned the draft but he'll actually return to Missouri State in the MVC, something becoming less and less common nowadays with power programs ravaging mid-major rosters through the transfer portal. Stewart, like Harrison Didawick, is a big time left handed power hitter and nearly matched his UVA counterpart with 22 home runs this year, but he generates that power very differently. While Didawick's power comes from his ability to loft the ball with authority, Stewart's comes from pure ferociousness. He has borderline-elite top-end exit velocities, regularly popping up over 110 MPH with electric bat speed and tremendous torque generated by his 6'2", 220 pound frame. When MVC pitchers leave the ball over the plate, he can pummel it out of any stadium to any field at any point. It's the kind of power that will certainly play with wood bats once he does move on to pro ball. Also like Didawick, swing and miss is a big problem. He also struck out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances in 2024 and ran swing and miss rates around 30%, just like Didawick, but in this case he was doing so against an MVC schedule as opposed to UVA's strong ACC schedule. Given the strength of the pitching he was facing, that's a big concern, and his struggles in the Cape Cod League last summer didn't help (.154/.233/.205, 34.9% K rate in eleven games). Stewart will return to Springfield hoping to cut down that strikeout rate, something he should be able to do without sacrificing power given how naturally he can rip the bat through the zone. The profile reminds me a bit of former Florida State slugger Elijah Cabell, a seventeenth round pick out of Florida State in 2021 who hit .160 over three years in the Cardinals system. Stewart does have the benefit of being left handed, and he's a year younger for his class than Cabell was with a chance to shore things up in his redshirt junior season in 2025. Again like Didawick, Stewart has fringy defensive tools and will wind up in an outfield corner.

8. SS Colby Shelton, Florida (my rank: #172)
Drafted – 20th round (pick #590), Washington Nationals
Colby Shelton, a South Carolina native who attended high school in the Tampa area, started his career at Alabama and earned Freshman All-American honors with a massive 2023 for the Crimson Tide. Coaching turbulence in Tuscaloosa led him to the transfer portal, where he was one of the most sought-after targets in the country and landed in Gainesville. Florida thought they'd only get him for one year, but while he started all 66 games at shortstop and blasted twenty home runs, swing and miss concerns kept teams from meeting his bonus demands and he'll return for his junior season. Though he'll be a true junior, he'll be the age of a college senior and will play the whole 2025 season at age-22. Shelton has average raw power, but he taps all of it in games with natural loft in his left handed swing. Though he's performed for two years against SEC schedules, blasting 45 home runs in 125 games, the approach is raw and hasn't always played up during those weekend SEC series. He's an aggressive hitter that regularly expands the zone, with below average bat to ball ability that led to a very high 26.4% strikeout rate in 2024 (up from 24.6% in 2023). That makes his overall offensive profile much closer to Harrison Didawick than Zack Stewart, though he's six-plus months older than those two and has lower top-end exit velocities. Shelton has played exclusively shortstop at Florida, though his slower feet and solid arm will likely push him to third base in pro ball, where he played at Alabama and at times on the Cape.

9. 1B Jared Jones, Louisiana State (my rank: #197)
Undrafted
Jared Jones was another famous prep to reach campus from the 2022 class, heading to Baton Rouge as a catcher. While the presence of better gloves like Hayden Travinski, Alex Milazzo, and Brady Neal meant that he never put the gear on in game action, he has carved out a name for himself as one of the premier power hitters in college baseball. After crushing fourteen home runs as a freshman in 2023, he doubled that total to 28 in 2024, tied for the seventh highest total in Division I (and third highest among underclassmen). Listed at 6'4", 255 pounds, it's not surprising to hear that Jones has a thunderous right handed bat that can drive balls out to all fields with ease (he did this as a freshman). Very few players had better top-end exit velocities than Zack Stewart, but one of them was Jones who showed 70 grade raw power. Already with 42 home runs under his belt in two seasons at LSU, he'll look to break 60 or even 70+ next year. Now while he continues the power theme, he also continues the swing and miss theme on this list. It might be a 30 grade hit tool as he whiffed on nearly 40% of his swings, an abysmal number, and struck out over a quarter of the time this year (and more than 30% of the time in SEC play and 35% on the Cape). The Atlanta-area native can get overwhelmed with premium stuff and lacks the barrel accuracy to make up for it. Now that he's moved off catcher and exclusively plays first base, where his heavy feet and below average speed fit best, there's much more pressure on his bat to play. Fortunately, he has so much power that he can send the ball out even when he gets fooled, and indeed 70 of his 118 hits for LSU over his career have gone for extra bases. He'll still be 21 on draft day next year and will look to spend 2025 cutting down the swing and miss to a stomache-ble number.

10. SS Jonathan Vastine, Vanderbilt (my rank: #202)
Undrafted
Jonathan Vastine continues the theme of former highly regarded prep prospects on this list, though he's not quite the power hitter of many names above him. He played sparingly as a Vanderbilt freshman in 2022 before taking the reins as the Dores' starting shortstop in 2023, which he has held down with solid results over the past two seasons sandwiched around a strong run through the Cape Cod League in 2023 (.323/.420/.430). Undersized at 5'11", 165 pounds, he whips the bat around pretty explosively for his size and can turn on the ball for average power to his pull side, though it's probably fringy overall. Throughout his career he has employed an approach of controlled aggression at the plate, which helped him hit well against elite pitching on the Cape as well as avoid a dip in his numbers in SEC play vs non-conference play in 2024. However, that approach unraveled at times this year and he surprised some evaluators by swinging and missing at more than a 30% clip, causing his strikeout rate to balloon over 25%. Even with his defensive value, he'll have to bring that number way down given his unremarkable power. Vastine is a strong shortstop with impressive instincts, range, and arm strength, even if he's not the most explosive defender on the dirt. That will enable him to be above average at second base, shortstop, or third base in pro ball, taking pressure off his bat as he eventually works his way up as a utility infielder. The underlying metrics on Vastine were not good in 2024 and teams noticed that, so back in Nashville he'll look to tighten things up and find a way to make more contact with a more sustainable approach at the plate. I still like the way the Florida native moves on both sides of the ball and he could be a nice senior sign next year if he makes the necessary adjustments.

Bonus: RHP Jaxon Jelkin, Houston -> ? (my rank: #134)
Drafted – 9th round (pick #263), New York Mets
Jaxon Jelkin went unsigned and would technically rank #5 on this list. There's not much information out there about his current situation, but I have a good general idea of the basics and I'll do my best to lay them out. Jelkin has bounced around a lot, beginning his career as a seldom-used reliever at Nebraska in 2022 but getting dismissed from the team two months into the season. He transferred to South Mountain JC in Phoenix for 2023 where the Dodgers drafted him in the fourteenth round, then headed to Houston in 2024. He looked sharp in seven starts for the Cougars, including a thirteen strikeout performance against BYU in March, but went down with Tommy John surgery and won't get back on the mound until mid-2025 at the earliest. The Mets drafted him in the ninth round regardless, but disputes over his medicals led to the team rescinding its offer. It's not clear what his next steps will be – he's not on Houston's 2025 roster, nor any other school's, and indications seem to be that he intends to sign as a free agent which hasn't happened yet. While everything else is a question mark, nobody doubts the arm talent. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 at peak, though it shows more running than riding life. He throws two breaking balls, led by an above average slider with sweep in addition to a solid two-plane curveball that he has leaned more and more on, and together he throws the breaking balls more than his fastball. His changeup shows excellent fade and got strong results for him in 2024, projecting as a potential above average pitch. The 6'5" righty is extremely projectable and brings great athleticism on the mound, with both his command and stuff trending in the right direction throughout his college career. If he can get healthy and build up his durability, he has legitimate MLB starting pitcher upside, and if he can find more movement on his fastball, he could be a true impact starter with four above average pitches. But questions about his makeup and medical situation may be what's keeping teams away.

Others
#213 OF Kendall Diggs, Arkansas
#215 1B Hunter Hines, Mississippi State

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels

Full list of draftees

The Angels had a very interesting draft. They surprised many by drafting the slugging Christian Moore with their first pick, then signing him to a massive under slot deal. After continuing to save in the second round, they had nearly $2 million to play with against the bonus pool two picks in and spread it around to a trio of high upside arms. Speaking of arms, they were the theme of the draft here behind Moore, as the Angels would draft seven straight pitchers from that point and 15/20 overall (excluding Moore). They failed to sign third rounder Ryan Prager, which was a surprise, and that only furthered a theme of power arms throughout the draft. Numerous pitchers in this class have touched triple digits while a whopping eleven draftees stand 6'4" or taller. Five stand 6'6" or taller and they're headlined by the 6'11" Peyton Olejnik and 6'9" Will Gervase.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-8: 2B Christian Moore, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $6.5 million. Signing bonus: $5 million ($1.5 million below slot value).
My rank: #14. MLB Pipeline: #13. Baseball America: #12.
This was probably the first true surprise pick of the draft, but that is no slight against Christian Moore, who saved the Angels a massive $1.5 million by signing between the slot values of the #14 and #15 picks here at #8. Moore showed well as a part-time playing freshman in 2022 and repeated his success with a strong sophomore season in 2023. Then came 2024, which was a different animal. Offense was off the charts this year as every game felt like it was being played at Coors Field, and Moore was front and center. While leading Tennessee to a National Championship, he blasted 34 home runs and 55 extra base hits overall in 72 games, good for the third highest home run total in all of college baseball this year and tied with Troy Glaus (UCLA) for the ninth highest in college baseball history. Not only did Moore go on a power barrage this year, he was actually better against SEC pitching than against his non-conference schedule, slashing a bonkers .429/.461/.925 with 20 home runs in 30 games against pitching from the best conference in college baseball. Unsurprisingly, Moore has an explosive right handed swing that produces routinely produces elite exit velocities, making the ball jump off his bat like few in college baseball. His big, uppercut hacks make the most of that explosive bat speed and he clearly had zero issue tapping his power in games, especially not against top-flight SEC pitching. The hit tool, meanwhile is more average. He ran average chase rates and average contact rates, which isn't quite what you want to see in the top ten of the draft, but the fact that he was so good in SEC play assuages some of those swing and miss concerns. His barrel is plenty accurate so when he hits it, he's hitting it hard and doing enough damage to keep his batting averages up alongside his slugging percentages. The Brooklyn native has seen time at shortstop but he likely plays second base long term, where his average speed and arm fit better. If he makes enough contact, Moore figures to be a bat-first second baseman in the mold of Dan Uggla. If you can save $1.5 million and still get that kind of bat, it's commendable move in the first round. The Angels pushed Moore aggressively and he responded without missing a beat, slashing .347/.400/.584 with six home runs and a 29/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games mostly spent at AA Rocket City, giving him 40 total home runs on the season.

2-45: RHP Chris Cortez, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: $2.07 million. Signing bonus: $1.6 million ($475,300 below slot value).
My rank: #60. MLB Pipeline: #85. Baseball America: #90.
Chris Cortez has one of the most electric arms in recent college baseball memory, and that's no exaggeration. He has struggled to harness it in the past and in 2023 posted an ugly 7.34 ERA as he walked 18.7% of his opponents, but he righted the ship in a big way in 2024 as he cut the walk rate down to 13.3% and his ERA by more than half. The fastball sits consistently in the upper 90's and has reached 101 with turbo sinker action, running over seventeen inches to the arm side while boring down towards the earth at frightening speed. If you want to lift that pitch, you have to time and square it up absolutely perfectly, so good luck. Cortez adds a power slider in the upper 80's with nasty late bite, fooling hitters time and again with hard sweep. For now, it's just those two pitches. The command was previously well below average but improved to simply below average in 2024, though of course it's still not quite where it needs to be. The 6'1" righty often appears nothing short of untouchable as he blows hitters away with the sinker/slider combo, but just as quickly as he arrived, his command can vanish and he'll get himself in trouble. The command woes combined with the lack of a third pitch (or anything under 86-87 for that matter) do likely point to a career in the bullpen, where he won't need to hold that command together for more than a few batters. This is a really exciting arm for the Angels, one that could move quickly and join fellow fireballer Ben Joyce in Anaheim sooner rather than later if the Angels resist the urge to make him a starter. Additionally, the Las Vegas native signed for almost half a million below slot value, close to the value of the #56 pick and bringing Los Angeles close to $2 million in the black heading into their third pick. They started to spend it on:

2C-74: RHP Ryan Johnson, Dallas Baptist {video}
Slot value: $1.06 million. Signing bonus: $1.75 million ($687,200 above slot value).
My rank: #36. MLB Pipeline: #47. Baseball America: #46.
Ryan Johnson was Los Angeles' first big over slot buy, in fact signing for more than second rounder Chris Cortez, roughly the slot value for pick #52. Johnson was a well-known prep in the 2021 class but made it to campus at Dallas Baptist, where he turned in two strong seasons before breaking out for a massive 2024. Like Cortez, he is a fascinating arm, but in a very different way. Johnson is a gangly, 6'6" string bean that is all arms and legs, with some projection remaining though at 22 years old now, he probably is what he is. He uses a very unconventional delivery, eschewing a leg lift and instead breaking for the plate straight from his initial windup step in almost a buckling manner. That gives way to a low arm slot that creates a release height nearly a foot lower than his listed height, something you don't see often. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 98 as a starter, and he's even hit triple digits in shorter stints. Despite the big velocity, it gets hit harder than it should with fairly ordinary running and sinking life. Finding a better fastball shape or at least shifting its usage will be one of the first things the Angels should look at. His best pitch is a plus slider that he throws roughly half the time, showing deep, late sweep that confounds hitters left and right. He splits the difference a bit with an average cutter, which gets better results than his fastball, while his changeup is more fringy. While the funky delivery would lead you to see Johnson as a reliever, he actually has plus command and walked just 3.3% of his opponents before, making for a downright elite 10.8:1 strikeout to walk ratio (151/14). It's a really, really intriguing profile that will let the Angels get really creative with his development. His feel for his slider is a real separator, both in terms of its movement and the way he executes/commands it, and the raw arm strength gives his fastball more upside if he can tweak it a little bit. I see Johnson as a potential mid rotation starter if he's developed right and I hope the Angels can bring that out of him.

3-81: LHP Ryan Prager, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: $948,600. Signing bonus: did not sign.
My rank: #69. MLB Pipeline: #61. Baseball America: #66.
In a surprise to most, Ryan Prager declined to sign with the Angels and will instead head back to Texas A&M for his senior season, making him the third highest drafted player and the highest drafted college player to do so. Making this even more of a surprise is the fact that Jim Schlossnagle, for whom he played his entire career in College Station (though he initially committed to the Aggies under previous head coach Rob Childress). After spending his freshman season in the rotation, he lost his sophomore season to Tommy John surgery then returned with a vengeance in 2024 as one of the top pitchers in the SEC and therefore the nation. While Ryan Johnson and Prager's teammate Chris Cortez have both reached triple digits, Prager is much more of an old school starting pitcher. His fastball parks around 90 and tops out at 94, showing massive riding life negated a bit by an ultra high, over the top release point. The pitch shows some cutting action, too, and it got great results in 2024. His slider gets late drop and performed admirably, looking like an above average breaker, while his straight changeup gives him a third at least average pitch. Everything plays up for Prager because he works effectively in the zone with plus command and high pitching IQ, mixing and matching his stuff effectively to keep hitters off it. The 6'3" lefty also brings some deception in his delivery with a deep arm plunge that helps hide the ball from view, rocking back over into his over the top delivery. While he won't be joining the Angels, he will smooth the transition from Schlossnagle to Michael Earley as one of the best pitchers in all of college baseball.

4-110: RHP Austin Gordon, Clemson {video}
Slot value: $662,900. Signing bonus: $572,500 ($90,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #363.
Austin Gordon has moved between roles as needed at Clemson, spending his freshman year in the bullpen, moving to the rotation as a sophomore, and spending his junior season doing a little bit of both to decent results. This is a stuff-first arm with some upside. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with big riding life, making for a plus pitch that he leans heavily on. Gordon also shows strong feel to spin two distinct breaking balls, with a sharp, tight slider in the mid 80's and a loopier, true 12-6 curve a few ticks slower. The slider is his primary breaker and projects as the better pitch in pro ball, but he does get good results with both. He doesn't use his changeup much, especially in relief. After showing solid command as a starter in 2023, he regressed in that regard as his walk rate jumped from 6.3% to 10.5%. He's generally around the zone but can't always execute his pitches where he needs them, leading to him getting hit just a bit harder than his pure stuff says he should. Should the Angels choose to develop the Myrtle Beach native as a starter, they'll certainly want to bring the changeup along as well as refine his in-zone execution just a bit more, with his athleticism and arm strength giving him plenty of upside in that regard. If he remains a reliever, he can work heavily off the fastball/slider combination and retain the power on his stuff without worrying so much about command. At 6'5" and relatively young for the class (turned 21 a month before the draft), there's a good chance he continues to improve.

5-143: RHP Dylan Jordan, Viera HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $480,800. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($766,700 above slot value).
My rank: #119. MLB Pipeline: #243. Baseball America: #170.
The Angels unloaded their second largest over slot bonus here, buying Dylan Jordan away from a Florida State commitment for roughly the slot value of the #66 pick, much more than he was projected to earn. While he didn't get as much love from national outlets, but he was a local favorite from scouts in the Sunshine State and was paid accordingly. The fastball sits in the low 90's and tops out around 95, and he works the shape between more of a running and sinking pitch and one with more riding action. The slider can steal the show at its best, coming in with big sweeping action when he rips it right. For now, the changeup isn't used much in games. Jordan is a sidearmer with an ultra low release point that adds a unique dimension to his stuff, and hitters will tell you that 95 from the side is not the same as 95 from over the top. The 6'3" righty is also a very good athlete that treats his arm like a sling, whipping the ball in there with long arm action that helps reduce stress. The command is below average for now and the Angels will want to clean that up, but between the athleticism and nasty east-west profile from a sidearmer, there's a lot to play with and Jordan comes with plenty of upside. The Angels are clearly buying in in a big way by giving him day one money.

6-172: RHP Peyton Olejnik, Miami [OH] {video}
Slot value: $366,100. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($168,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Sometimes you just have to sit back in awe of a pitcher, and that's Peyton Olejnik. He's bounced around, beginning his career Triton JC in the Chicago area (alma mater of Kirby Puckett) in 2022 before transferring to Oklahoma in 2023. He barely pitched for the Sooners, so he transferred once mor eto Miami of Ohio and found his way into a swingman role for the Redhawks. The elephant in the room, or more aptly the giraffe in the room, is Olejnik himself – he stands 6'11", which would tie him with Giants righty Sean Hjelle and former reliever Jon Rauch as the tallest pitcher in major league history. The fastball sits low 90's and touches 95 with average life, but of course it plays up because he gets a ridiculous nearly seven feet of extension from a low three quarters slot. The Little League mound sits at 45 feet, so that means with his release point 53 feet from home plate, he's getting halfway from the big league mound to a little league mound. Halfway! He shows a nice sweeping slider as well that misses bats at a solid clip, giving him a second at least average pitch, while his changeup gives him a third usable pitch. Olejnik showed solid command in 2024 and has really grown into his body – he was still growing when he reached Triton as a freshman, listed at 6'9" at the time. The stuff isn't all that loud so he'll have a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter if the command holds, with a fallback option as a reliever whose stuff could tick up. If he starts throwing 93-96 in short stints instead of 91-94 in longer outings, that would be frankly terrifying given his size. The Indiana native already got his feet wet, allowing two runs over 6.1 innings while striking out eleven in four abbreviated starts for Low A Inland Empire. 

11-322: RHP Trey Gregory-Alford, Coronado HS [CO] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $1.96 million ($1.81 million against bonus pool).
My rank: #99. MLB Pipeline: #105. Baseball America: #98.
They didn't do it last year, but the Angels have made a habit lately of handing massive bonuses to high school pitchers early on day three. In 2022, it was Caden Dana ($1.5 million), now in the rotation, and in 2021 it was Mason Albright ($1.25 million), who was sent to Colorado in the Randal Grichuk trade. In 2024, that man is Trey Gregory-Alford, who brought in nearly $2 million as the Angels' second highest paid draftee this year. That bonus, which kept him away from a UVA commitment, was between the slot values for the #47 and #48 picks here at #322. It's a bit of a theme in this class, but Gregory-Alford has arm strength in spades and then in more spades. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touches 98 in games, and has reached 101 in side bullpens with running life. Beyond that, he rips off a hard, above average slider with late bite which plays very well off his power fastball, giving him the potential for two plus pitches. The changeup is behind at this point, but that's not unexpected for a power high school pitcher from Colorado Springs. He is a big, physical pitcher at a listed 6'5", 235 pounds already, looking like he could go head to head with anybody in the organization despite being just 18 years old. TGA uses a high three quarters delivery and does throw with some effort, which can impact his command though he's generally around the strike zone. As he acclimates to his high octane stuff, the command should come along has a chance to be average in time. There's plenty of reliever risk as the current profile fits that role precisely, so the Angels will look to smooth him out and bring the changeup along. Even if he has to sit more 92-95 than 94-97, he should still be a very effective starter granted that little pullback helps him throw more strikes. He reminds me a bit of Chase Burns in high school, and Burns of course went on to become arguably the best pitcher in college baseball and go #2 overall to the Reds this year.

12-352: RHP Fran Oschell III, Duke {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #204. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #225.
You guessed it, arm strength again. Fran Oschell did not take a straight path to get here, and he represents a bit of a post-hype prospect the Angels will look to reclaim. After barely pitching as a freshman, he broke out for a massive sophomore season in which he posted a 0.69 ERA (!) and held opponents to just a .133 batting average (!!) while striking out 41.5% of his opponents (!!!) out of the bullpen. That gave him a chance to pitch his way into day one of the draft this spring, but unfortunately everything went in the wrong direction. The ERA ballooned to 6.94, his strikeout rate dropped to 18.2%, and his walk rate jumped from 11.3% to 23.1%. So what's the deal? Oschell is a massive righty at a listed 6'7", 230 pounds, with arm strength to match. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has hit 99 in the past, coming in with explosive riding life that ticked back a little in 2024. In 2023, it was one of the best fastballs in all of college baseball and just chewed up ACC hitters, but this year he wasn't able to entice as many hitters to chase it up and out of the zone as he fell behind in counts. He throws a pair of power breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, but both stand out more for velocity than movement and lack the true finish to be plus pitches, instead looking above average at best. Oschell's command completely fell apart in 2024 and he just rarely set himself up for success as he consistently fell behind in the count. The Angels saw the outright dominance he showed in 2023 when his command was just fringy, i.e. reasonably-not-that-bad, buoyed by that plus-plus fastball at its best. He's almost certainly a reliever and he'll look to get back on track with a change of scenery.

18-532: SS David Mershon, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $255,000 ($105,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
This is a fun profile in the eighteenth round, even if it's more about performance than underlying metrics. David Mershon spent two years at Mississippi State and was a major sparkplug for the Bulldogs this past season, where he hit .347, stole 27 bases, and walked (14.9%) more than he struck out (13.8%). Draft eligible after he turned 21 in May, making him closer to the age of a college junior, he brings an old school profile to the table. Mershon is just 5'8", 175 pounds, using a slappy, line drive swing to spray the ball around the field. That contact-oriented approach combined with hitterish, big league at bats helps him keep his strikeouts down and his on-base percentages up. There is virtually no power to speak of, as he rarely turns on or lifts the ball and doesn't have the raw juice to send the ball very far if he did. He did hit six home runs in 58 games in 2024, but that's likely a product of the metal bats and offense-happy environment and he likely won't approach double digit home run totals at the major league level. Instead, he'll use his contact ability, speed, and high energy style of play to make things happen at the plate and on the bases. His speed and scrappy style of play serve him well on the infield, where he can get to most any ball hit his way, though he's not very physical and a lack of arm strength will relegate him to second base. The South Carolina native projects as a high average utility infield type who will be very fun to watch on both sides of the ball. He's an easy guy to root for and is already knocking on the door to Los Angeles, having slashed .254/.326/.298 with a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at AA Rocket City, an aggressive assignment for a just-drafted sophomore.