Unpacking the San Diego Padres Trade Deadline

Acquired: RHP Mike Clevinger, RHP Trevor Rosenthal, RHP Taylor Williams, RHP Austin Adams, RHP Dan Altavilla, 1B Mitch Moreland, C Austin Nola, C Jason Castro, OF Greg Allen, and a PTBNL

Traded: 3B Ty France, OF Josh Naylor, OF Edward Olivares, C Austin Hedges, C Luis Torrens, RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Andres Muñoz, RHP Gerardo Reyes, minor leaguers OF Taylor Trammell, OF Jeisson Rosario, SS Gabriel Arias, SS Owen Miller, 3B Hudson Potts, LHP Joey Cantillo, and two PTBNL's* (one PTBNL reported to be minor league RHP Matt Brash)

First off, wow. The Padres picked up an impact starting pitcher, four relievers, two catchers, a power bat, an extra outfielder, and a bonus PTBNL, only one of whom is a rental. And all it cost them was a set of 16 players, half of whom have major league experience. My two immediate takeaways: the Padres overpaid on a lot of these deals, but I commend them for doing so. In baseball, if you're not moving forward, you're going backwards, and they need to move forward if they want to catch the Dodgers and compete with the heavy hitters of the National League for years to come. In that sense, overpaying to get the job done was better than doing nothing at all. Even though 26 (!) players changed hands here, they still hung onto big name young arms like MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patiño, Ryan Weathers, and Cole Wilcox and young bats like Luis Campusano, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell, and Hudson Head. I'd call that a win.

Obviously, I'm much more excited to talk about the prospects than the big leaguers, but let's run through the new Padres real quick.

New Bats

The most apparent upgrade here is swapping out Austin Hedges and Luis Torrens for Austin Nola and Jason Castro. Hedges and Torrens were hitting a combined .176/.266/.338 with three home runs in 36 games, while the new Nola/Castro combination comes in slashing .267/.355/.480 with seven home runs in 47 games. That's huge. While swapping out Hedges' steady glove for Nola's might sting a little bit, Nola has also played every other position but pitcher, shortstop, and center field over the last two seasons, giving San Diego a ton of flexibility to move him around the field and potentially give Castro more at bats. Mitch Moreland won't force Eric Hosmer off of first base, but he and his .328/.430/.746 bat will be a huge upgrade over the injured Tommy Pham (.207/.316/.293), Josh Naylor (.278/.316/.417), and Abraham Almonte (.111/.200/.111), who the Padres have been using in that spot. I think this transforms a top-heavy offense led primarily by Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Wil Myers, and Jake Cronenworth into a much more formidable, more balanced group that can try to keep up with the Dodgers. Lastly, Greg Allen is just a career .239/.295/.344 hitter, but his 94th percentile sprint speed makes him the fastest player on the team and, as a bonus, he grew up in San Diego, attending Hilltop High School in Chula Vista as well as San Diego State University.

New Arms

Clearly, Mike Clevinger is the headliner. Since the start of the 2017 season, he's 39-19 with a 2.97 ERA and a 534/175 strikeout to walk ratio across 470.1 innings – those are ace-caliber numbers. Additionally, the 29 year old is under contract through 2022 and should be affordable at that. Throw him in with Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Luis Patiño, and MacKenzie Gore, and the Padres have a legitimate rotation from top to bottom going forward (plus Zach Davies for 2021). Now, the bullpen. The fearsome trio of Kirby Yates, Emilio Pagan, and Craig Stammen combined for a 2.37 ERA over 212.2 innings in 2019, but that's jumped all the way to a 7.56 ERA in 33.1 innings this year. So, the Padres brought in four new relievers to counter that, especially given that Yates likely won't pitch the rest of the regular season. None of the four are necessarily stars, but Trevor Rosenthal, Dan Altavilla, Austin Adams, and Taylor Williams bring in some depth to help get them over the hump while those guys get back on track. Plus aside from Rosenthal, the other three are all under team control through 2023.

The Indians Haul

In trading Mike Clevinger, the Indians picked up easily the most capital from the Padres. Starting with the big leaguers, Cal Quantrill (age 25) has proven serviceable as both a starter and a reliever, and he'll have a chance to take over Clevinger's spot in the Cleveland rotation. The Ontario native fits the Indians mold as a polished strike thrower who can pitch well off his changeup, though the rest of his arsenal is pretty ordinary and he can be hittable when he misses in the zone. Moving forward, he'll probably be a back-end starter for Cleveland, though the Indians always have a host of starting pitchers coming up through their system which could force him out. He holds a 4.79 ERA and a 107/34 K/BB in 120.1 innings for his career. Josh Naylor (age 23) will join his younger brother Bo, who spent 2019 at Class A Lake County. Naylor is a bit younger and comes with more upside than Quantrill, and as a career .253/.315/.405 hitter with nine home runs in 112 games, he already has a little bit of track record under his belt at 23 years old. He controls the strike zone well with a solid 21% career strikeout rate, though while he shows some thump in his bat, it may not be enough to start full time with his first base/corner outfield profile. As a left handed hitter who has also shown the ability to hit same-sided pitching, he increases his base value as a bench bat and could fill in left, right, first base, or DH. At peak, we could see 20-25 home runs a year, but I think he'll be more in the teens. Then there's Austin Hedges (age 28), who is just a career .199/.257/.359 hitter, but it's not like Roberto Perez (.214/.304/.368) or Sandy Leon (.217/.284/.328) are much better. Now, the Indians have three top defensive catchers who can't hit, but while Leon is a free agent after the season, Hedges and Perez are both under contract through 2022. Those two should bridge the time until Bo Naylor works his way up.

Now onto the minor leaguers, which I prefer to talk about anyways. I'm extremely excited to see Joey Cantillo (age 20) in the Indians system, where he could really take off. He dominated A ball to the tune of a 2.26 ERA and a 144/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings in 2019, showing improved stuff across the board as he filled out his 6'4" frame. The stuff is decent, with a fastball around 90, a good changeup, and a huge downer curveball with tremendous depth but not a ton of velocity, but everything plays up because he gets great deception in his delivery and locates his pitches extremely well. That's exactly the kind of pitcher the Indians tend to do really well with, and I could really see him coming out a legitimate impact pitcher. Keep an eye on this one. Moving on, Owen Miller (age 23) is a sleeper type who has slashed .307/.367/.441 with 17 home runs over 205 games so far in his minor league career. He has exceptional natural feel to hit that helped him race from Illinois State to AA in less than a year, and while he doesn't hit for a ton of power, his ability to find the barrel consistently makes that moderate power up significantly. With Francisco Lindor looking like he'll be leaving Cleveland and no long term solution at second base, the middle infield is wide open and I could see Miller becoming a full time starter either at second base or shortstop in the near future. Coming up behind him is Gabriel Arias (age 20), who broke out with a .302/.339/.470 line and 17 home runs in High A in 2019. He has always been talented and the big breakout just confirms what evaluators already knew. Arias is an explosive hitter from the right side that put up those gaudy numbers against much older competition, but at this point, he's also very aggressive and will need to tone down his approach as he matures. Given his age, that's not overly concerning. What he did as a teenager in High A was impressive enough, and he's a great defender that could become Cleveland's shortstop of the future if he continues to progress. The youth and the glove give his plate discipline plenty of slack to catch up.

New Mariners

The most established player heading to the other end of I-5 is Ty France (age 26), a San Diego State product who was off to a hot .309/.377/.491 start over 20 games in 2020. He's not a huge guy at 5'11", but he has great feel for the barrel that enables him to make consistent hard contact and tap some power when he gets into one. Even though he's just 89 games into his MLB career, he's already appeared at first base, second base, third base, and even pitcher, bringing plenty of versatility to fill in in multiple roles or even sneak into a starting spot if Evan White, Shed Long, or Kyle Seager gets hurt. There's not much coming up through the system that would seem to threaten his playing time, either, and he's under team control for a long time. Definitely a nice depth add. Luis Torrens (age 24) hasn't made a ton of noise just yet, slashing .176/.256/.223 over 70 career games, but with Austin Nola leaving town, he'll have plenty of opportunity to try. Torrens has a classic backup catcher profile, with very strong plate discipline helping him tap some moderate power from the right side. At 24 years old, I'm not sure how much more he'll grow into, but he's been steadily hitting for more impact in the minors and he has a chance to hit for just enough in the majors to justify regular playing time, especially with his solid glove. He'll likely help bridge the gap until Cal Raleigh is ready. Andres Muñoz (age 21) is a really interesting one. The 6'2", 240 pound righty has a triple digit fastball that has touched as high as 104, and while his command is far from pinpoint, he's not wild either and is generally around the zone. He drops in a good, vertical slider, and the two pitches enabled him to post a 3.91 ERA and a 30/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings in 2019 at just 20 years old, though he's sitting out 2020 with Tommy John surgery. Once he comes back, Muñoz just needs to sharpen his command a little bit to become a legitimate late inning arm. Given his age, that's certainly possible, making him a really interesting one to watch in the Mariners' bullpen. Lastly, the one true prospect in this deal was Taylor Trammell (age 22), the well-known prospect who was previously involved in the Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig deal of 2019. His stock faded a bit with a so-so 2019 season in AA (.234/.340/.349, 10 HR), but there's still a lot to like in this buy-low prospect. He has really nice raw power that he taps naturally, and a patient approach has enabled him to handle advanced pitching throughout his career. Throw in above average speed, and he can really impact the game in a lot of ways. The 2019 season showed that he still has work to do in proving he can generate impact against top level pitching, though he was just 21 at the time. The Mariners are betting that additional development time will prove that to just be a blip on the radar, and that his work ethic, athleticism, and patient approach will come together for an all-around contributor at the major league level. Either way, we should see him in Seattle by 2021 at the latest.

Two New Red Sox Bats

In return for power bat Mitch Moreland, the Red Sox are bringing on two new minor league bats in Hudson Potts (age 21) and Jeisson Rosario (age 20). Potts is a power bat that crushed 56 home runs, 86 doubles, and six triples in 364 minor league games from 2017-2019. The Padres loved his power and pushed him aggressively, sending him to full season ball at 18 years old in 2017 and to High A and even AA as a 19 year old in 2018. He spent his age-20 season at AA again in 2019 and slashed .227/.290/.406 with 16 home runs in 107 games, a mixed bag of numbers given his age. The Red Sox look at how young he has been relative to his competition and think his plate discipline with a bit of acclimation, and while his power isn't quite of the standard of Bobby Dalbec or Triston Casas, he's a better defender at third base who could stick there. However, with the presence of Rafael Devers in addition to Dalbec and Casas, he'll really have to earn that playing time. Rosario, meanwhile, hit just .242/.372/.314 over 120 games at High A last year, but he was also just 19 years old. The first thing that jumps off the page with Rosario is his patience, walking in 16.6% of his plate appearances last year despite his youth. He consistently works counts to hunt his pitch, though to this point, he hasn't hit for much impact with just 57 extra base hits over 289 games for his career. His approach is very contact-oriented, but he's very athletic and packs some lean strength into his 6'1" frame, so the Red Sox could tinker with his approach to tap some more power. At just 20 years old, he has plenty of time to experiment with different approaches to hitting, and his advanced plate discipline helps in that regard as well. He's a strong defender that should stick in center field, which also buys his bat more slack, so he's a high probability big leaguer in some capacity. If he can learn to generate more impact at the plate, he has a chance to start as a guy with 10-15 home runs a year and strong on-base percentages, though without significant gains in his power output, he's probably more of a fourth outfielder.

The Rest

I'll start with Edward Olivares (age 24) here. He's a huge get for the Royals after signing Trevor Rosenthal to a minor league contract, bringing a multitude of ways to impact the game. He hit .283/.349/.453 with 18 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 127 games in AA last year, and he's gotten his feet wet a bit in 13 games with the Padres (albeit at .176/.222/.294). There's no one carrying tool to Olivares' game, but he brings loose, easy power from a rangy 6'2" frame in addition to good feel for the barrel and nice speed as well. His aggressive approach will limit his on-base percentages in the majors, though his game fits well in that big Kansas City outfield and he has a chance to get lots of playing time pretty quickly. His ability to handle center field could bump Whit Merrifield to second base and Nicky Lopez down to the bench, and he also provides a controllable option to gradually take over for Alex Gordon slowly approaches retirement. Though he's not quite as fast, he should hit for more impact than Nick Heath, and with guys like Khalil Lee, Kyle Isbel, and Brewer Hicklen also working their way up, the future of the Royals outfield looks to be in a much more solid place. I don't necessarily see Olivares turning into a star, but he could be a 10-15 home run bat whose speed and defense helps him hold down regular playing time. Moving back to the West Coast, the Angels are picking up a power bullpen arm in Gerardo Reyes (age 27) in exchange for Jason Castro. Already 27, he's yet to do much at the major league level with a 7.62 ERA and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings last year, but the stuff is there for him to succeed. His fastball sits in the upper 90's and it isn't straight, either, with his lower arm angle putting great running and sinking action on it. He throws a short, tight slider that sneaks below bats and induces plenty of whiffs. He does a good job of filling up the strike zone but he struggles to hit individual spots, and going forward his success will likely hinge on that command. If he can tunnel his fastball and slider off each other, he has serious late inning potential. The Angels will try to get him there, but at 27 years old, he's not the youngest kid out there. And lastly, Matt Brash (age 22) isn't officially a Mariner just yet, but he's reported to be the player to be named later in the Taylor Williams deal. He was the Padres' fourth round pick out of Niagara University in 2019, then struck out eight over 5.1 innings (one earned run) in his pro debut that year. He looks like a reliever to the naked eye, showing a low 90's fastball that can creep up to 95 to go with a good changeup and a pair of decent breaking balls, all coming from a jerky delivery. However, Brash's pitch metrics are supposedly very good, and he has consistently performed at a high level everywhere he's gone. Additionally, he was showing a smoother delivery in 2020 in spring training, and he looks much more like a starting pitcher at this point. Brash probably profiles as a back-end starter, depending on the development of his offspeed stuff.

2020 Prospect Depth Chart: San Diego Padres

The Padres have depth everywhere you look, and on top of that, they have those kinds of impact prospects you want leading the way at most positions. MacKenzie Gore is of course one of the top pitching prospects in the game, possessing all of the qualities you look for in a prospect with the stuff, command, and competitiveness to profile at the top of the rotation. Behind him, Luis Campusano's breakout makes him one of the game's top catching prospects, while guys like Luis Patino, Taylor Trammell, Gabriel Arias, Hudson Potts, and Ryan Weathers keep working their ways up and look like they could be future stars. Then there's 2019 first round pick CJ Abrams, whose electric pro debut meant the Padres could feel comfortable trading Xavier Edwards, and Joey Cantillo, who came out of nowhere to have one of the finest statistical seasons in the minors. If pitchers like Pedro Avila, Anderson Espinoza, and Mason Thompson can make healthy returns in 2020, that would be big.

Affiliates: AAA El Paso Chihuahuas, AA Amarillo Sod Poodles, High A Lake Elsinore Storm, Class A Fort Wayne TinCaps, short season Tri-City Dust Devils, complex level AZL and DSL Padres

Catcher
- Luis Campusano (2020 Age: 21): A second round pick out of high school in Augusta, Georgia in 2017, Campusano turned in a fairly ordinary first full season in 2018 (.288/.345/.365) before breaking out in 2019. This past season, he hit 15 home runs and slashed .325/.396/.509 with a 57/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Lake Elsinore, numbers that remain great even when accounting for the California League bump. He packs a lot of strength into his 5'10" frame that enables him to hit for good power, but he really began to figure out pro pitching and was virtually impossible to strike out in 2019. That's huge, because given the raw power in his bat, he could hit for even more over the fence pop in 2020 and threaten for 20-25 home runs annually in the bigs if he decides to become a bit more of a free swinger. Defensively, he'll stick behind the plate with his strong arm, but he's a bat-first prospect that could push Francisco Mejia back to the outfield down the road.
- Blake Hunt (2020 Age: 21): While Campusano has blasted forward, Hunt has sort of flown under the radar, though the fellow 2017 draftee who went 30 picks later out of high school in Santa Ana fits nicely as a glove-first counterpart. In 2019, he slashed .255/.331/.381 with five home runs and a 67/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Class A Fort Wayne, like Campusano proving to be difficult to strike out but not hitting for nearly as much impact. He retains some power potential in his 6'3" frame, but at this point he's looking more like a glove-first backup who can provide a lot of value on defense. With Campusano's bat-first profile, they should make a solid duo in the majors down the road.
- Logan Driscoll (2020 Age: 22): Sneaking up behind Campusano and Hunt will be Logan Driscoll, taken in the second competitive balance round out of George Mason University in 2019. In his pro debut, he hit a strong .268/.340/.458 with three home runs and a 23/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games at short season Tri-City, and he showed solid enough defense to project long term behind the plate. He's got some power and natural feel for the barrel in his 6'1" frame, and his strong plate discipline in college carried over to pro ball. That power/plate discipline combination should make him a net positive as a hitter, so long as the power plays up, though he has a long term projection as a backup catcher because he doesn't necessarily excel in any particular area.
- Keep an eye on: Jalen Washington, Juan Fernandez

Corner Infield
- Hudson Potts (2020 Age: 21): Similar to the Braves, whom I wrote up before the Padres, the one place this system lacks a ton of depth is in the corner infield. As I wrote for the Braves, that's quite alright, because middle infielders can often be shifted over here anyways. Additionally, Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado should have those spots locked down for a long time. Potts is the one standout in this group, a 2016 first round pick out of high school in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, and in 2019 he slashed .240/.302/.423 with 17 home runs and a 131/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games between AA Amarillo and complex level rehab work. He's an advanced hitter that could be an all-around asset at the plate, one who can find the barrel consistently against advanced pitching while using his strength and leverage to put up good power numbers. Very young for his class when he was drafted back in 2016, the Padres have pushed him aggressively anyways and the results have been more good than bat, with three straight seasons of at least 17 home runs and 23 doubles. The plate discipline has been so-so, but that's likely attributable to his age, as he played all of 2019 at just 20 years old in AA. My guess is he'll probably need a bit more seasoning in the upper minors, but he could develop into a 20-25 homer bat in the near future. I'm not quite sure where he'll play, because his natural third base is going to be occupied for a long time by Machado, but he could fit in at second base if he improves his range a little bit.
- Keep an eye on: Jason Vosler, Brad Zunica, Sean Guilbe

Middle Infield
- Jake Cronenworth (2020 Age: 26): Cronenworth was originally a Rays seventh round pick out of Michigan back in 2015, and he worked his way up slowly as a light hitting infielder. The juiced AAA balls did wonders for him in 2019, as he slashed .329/.422/.511 with ten home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 64/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games between AAA and complex level rehab, and after the season he was shipped to San Diego in the Tommy Pham/Hunter Renfroe deal. Cronenworth has always done a great job of controlling the strike zone and making for a tough at bat, but he began to hit for more impact in 2019 as he regularly found the barrel and the gaps. He profiles well as a utility infielder, though the bat might be just a bit too light to start full time. Additionally, the Rays actually tried him out as a reliever as well in 2019, and he responded with 7.2 shutout innings (with two unearned runs) and a 9/8 strikeout to walk ratio over seven appearances. He sits in the mid 90's and adds a really good curveball and cutter, though his command is still a work in progress. His future is mostly as a hitter, but he should be a serviceable reliever as well in 2020 if he can get more consistent with that command.
- Owen Miller (2020 Age: 23): A third round pick out of Illinois State in 2018, Miller has just flat out hit his way into the middle of the Padres future. After slashing .336/.386/.460 and hitting his way up to Class A in his pro debut, he skipped High A entirely and slashed .290/.355/.430 with 13 home runs and an 86/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at AA Amarillo in 2019. Hitting like that in AA less than a year out of the mid major Missouri Valley Conference, where he faced schools like Valparaiso and and Evansville, speaks volumes to his natural feel for the game. Miller doesn't have a ton of raw pop, but he finds the barrel so consistently and so easily that it plays up, and when you combine that with strong defense at second base and adequate defense at shortstop, he's a dark horse candidate to be the long term starter at the former position for San Diego. Expect Miller up in the majors as a utility infielder at some point in 2020 before challenging for that second base spot in 2021.
- Gabriel Arias (2020 Age: 20): The Padres signed Arias for $1.9 million out of Venezuela in 2016, and they've pushed him aggressively while letting him learn to hit pro pitching on the fly. After a couple of seasons with reasonably unremarkable numbers, he broke out in 2019 by slashing .302/.339/.470 with 17 home runs and a 128/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at High A Lake Elsinore as a teenager. He has an extremely quick bat from the right side that produces plenty of power, and he's gotten to it consistently against older pitching, showing his great feel for hitting in general. For now, he has a very aggressive approach that limits his walks and leads to some swing and miss, but he's also been young for his levels and those K/BB numbers should hopefully get a little closer together as he matures. Shortening his bat path might help as well, as his quick hands help him make up for a little bit of bat curl before the pitch but that might be more difficult against higher velocity at the higher levels. Arias is also a great defender that will stick at shortstop, giving him a profile as an all-around contributor. He won't unseat Fernando Tatis, but he could slide over to second base and win Gold Gloves there if he can beat out Owen Miller.
- Eguy Rosario (2020 Age: 20): As with most of their young prospects, the Padres pushed Rosario aggressively early, but when he hit .239/.307/.363 as an 18 year old in High A in 2018, they allowed him to repeat the level. The results were much better in 2019, when Rosario was a seasoned veteran at 19 years old, as he slashed .278/.331/.412 with seven home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 103/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at High A Lake Elsinore. He's a little guy at a listed 5'9" and 150 pounds, but he packs a lot of strength in there to hit for some gap power that played as over the fence power in the hitter-friendly California League. He also has a very advanced approach for his age that enabled him to reach High A at 18 years old, and he brings some speed as well that has given him 86 stolen bases in 406 games overall. Rosario has more of a utility infield projection, but he's young enough to continue developing and make himself into more of an impact prospect with a nice season in AA in 2020.
- Tucupita Marcano (2020 Age: 20): Marcano is a really interesting prospect. The Venezuelan product slashed .270/.323/.337 with two home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 45/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games at Class A Fort Wayne in 2019, but he has still walked far more times in his pro career (99) than he has struck out (76). He's really skinny at 6' tall and is more of a slap hitter than anything else, but he finds the barrel so easily that he might be the most difficult player to strike out in the entire system. Set to play the entire 2020 season at 20 years old, he has time to fill out his frame and add more strength, which could help him tap some gap power and maybe some over the fence pop, which will likely be the difference in him ultimately earning a starting spot or not down the road. He fits better at second base than at shortstop, but his ability to stick as an infielder does give him a little bit of extra time to find his power. A move up to the hitter-friendly California League in 2020 could help in that regard.
- CJ Abrams (2020 Age: 19): Abrams was one of the top high schoolers in the 2019 draft, and the Padres picked him up out of the Atlanta area with the sixth overall pick before turning him loose in the complex level Arizona League, where he slashed .401/.442/.662 with three home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 14/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games. Abrams also earned a late promotion to Class A Fort Wayne, where picked up a single, a double, and a stolen base between two games. He shows an exciting combination of speed, athleticism, and feel for the barrel, which enabled him to hit his way up to full season ball just a couple months out of high school. There's also some power potential in his 6'2" frame, as he has room to fill out as well as the great hit tool that can help him maximize whatever he does have. It's an exciting, true leadoff potential, as Abrams could hit 10-20 home runs annually with high on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases. Defensively, he may be able to stick at shortstop, but he could be a strong defender at second.
- Keep an eye on: Ivan Castillo, Esteury Ruiz, Allen Cordoba, Jordy Barley, Yeison Santana, Reginald Preciado

Outfield
- Taylor Trammell (2020 Age: 22): Trammell was a Reds competitive balance pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2016, then he got shipped to San Diego in the three team Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig/Franmil Reyes deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he slashed .234/.340/.349 with ten home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 122/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games in AA, which was a bit of a step back but also not overly worrisome for a 21 year old at that level. Trammell is an exceptionally talented player who can impact the game in a variety of ways, including with a patient approach, some raw power, plenty of speed, and good range in the outfield. Even now, a few years out of high school, he remains a bit raw, but his overall abilities and work ethic have helped him get up into the upper minors. The Padres are hoping to squeeze out that last little bit of refinement in the bat to help him make more consistent hard contact, after which he could realize his ceiling of 15-20 home runs a year, solid on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases.
- Edward Olivares (2020 Age: 24): Olivares broke out with a big year in the Blue Jays system in 2017, and the Padres picked him up for Yangervis Solarte after the season. He hit well in 2018 and broke out with his best year yet in 2019, slashing .283/.349/.453 with 18 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 98/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AA Amarillo. He's really begun tapping his power in games, and he adds a lot of speed that has enabled him to pick up 76 stolen bases over the last three seasons and play good defense in center field. It might be a bit more of a utility projection than Trammell, who was his teammate at Amarillo, just because he has less projection in his bat as he's set to turn 24 in spring training. In all, it's probably 10-15 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases.
- Tirso Ornelas (2020 Age: 20): Ornelas is a hometown guy for the Padres, as he grew up just across the border in Tijuana, but while the organization has been patiently waiting for him to break out, it just hasn't happened yet. While the numbers weren't quite there from a pure production standpoint, he showed excellent plate discipline while playing against much older competition in 2017 and 2018, which had the team excited to see what 2019 could bring. Unfortunately, he hit just .217/.303/.279 with one home run and a 113/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games between High A Lake Elsinore and a brief demotion to the complex level Arizona League to get back on track, which didn't really work. He's an extremely advanced hitter that understands the strike zone and advanced pitching well beyond his years, but despite a strong build at 6'3", he hasn't hit for much impact yet. He's only set to turn 20 in spring training, giving him plenty of time to figure things out, but the Padres would like to see at least some impact start to come out of his talented bat. Defensively, he has the makings of being a solid right fielder, though he's nothing special out there. It will be the bat that will have to wake up.
- Hudson Head (2020 Age: 19): The Padres made a huge gamble on Head, a solid high school prospect out of San Antonio, by giving him a third round record $3 million to keep from attending Oklahoma. He fell well outside of MLB.com's, Baseball America's, and my own top 100 due to his lack of a track record, but the Padres must have seen something they liked because this is a massive amount of money to take out of a draft pool. In his pro debut, Head slashed .283/.383/.417 with a home run and a 29/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games in the complex level Arizona League, which is definitely a solid start for the 18 year old. He has tapped some significant raw power in high school, though it's unproven against higher level pitching, and his speed and athleticism enable him to play a strong center field. If all goes right, the Padres are hoping to get a fairly similar player to Taylor Trammell, and that pro debut was a step in the right direction, but there is a lot of investment riding on that happening.
- Joshua Mears (2020 Age: 19): Mears went in the second round out of a Seattle-area high school in 2019, though he signed for a third of the money that Hudson signed for a round later. Though he was supposed to be raw coming in, he slashed .253/.354/.440 with seven home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 59/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games in the Arizona League, getting to his power frequently while drawing his fair share of walks. Mears is a 6'3" slugger with some of the best raw power in a system more geared towards speed and on-base percentage, though as an 18 year old kid without a lot of experience against advanced pitching, his ability to make contact and tap his power in games remains raw. That's why, despite a relatively high strikeout rate, it was nice to see him hit those seven home runs and tap it a little bit in pro ball. The Padres will get to work refining that hit tool with him in spring training, with the hope that he'll eventually hit 25-30 home runs or more annually. Despite his size, he's an adequate defender who could play left or right field.
- Keep an eye on: Michael Gettys, Jeisson Rosario, Grant Little, Michael Curry, Ismael Mena

Starting Pitching
- MacKenzie Gore (2020 Age: 21): Gore was the third overall pick coming out of high school in rural southeastern North Carolina in 2017, and after a solid if unspectacular 2018, he broke out in a huge way in 2019 to establish himself as one of the top prospects in the game. Between High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, he posted a 1.69 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 135/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 innings, and if you take out one rough start on July 19th, the ERA and WHIP drop to 1.11 and 0.76, respectively. In essence, aside from one start, the 20 year old was untouchable. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a whole set of secondaries, all of which can be plus pitches. His curveball has really good shape and his slider is a second distinct breaking ball that dives to his glove side, while his changeup has improved as well to the point where it can be an out pitch. He also throws strikes with all of his pitches, and his competitiveness on the mound makes everything play up. That's an ace projection if he can stay healthy, because he really checks all of the boxes you're looking for in a young pitcher – he's even left handed. I doubt Gore will open 2020 in the big league rotation, but he could be up at some point during the year and once he's up, he should stick.
- Adrian Morejon (2020 Age: 21): Morejon was a well regarded prospect coming out of Cuba, signing for $11 million in 2016, and he's worked his way up as one of the better pitching prospects in the system. In 2019, he posted a 4.25 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 44/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings at AA Amarillo, then got knocked around with a 10.13 ERA and a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio in eight major league innings before shoulder problems ended his season in August. There's no question about his stuff, as his fastball sits in the mid 90's while his curveball has some wicked two plane break. He also adds a pair of changeups with nice diving and fading action, and his command is good enough to make it all work. The problem here has been durability, as he's not the biggest guy at six feet tall and he has yet to throw more than 65.1 innings in a season. He has both the stuff and command to be a #2 or #3 starter at the major league level, but if he can't stay healthy, he might be forced to the bullpen. Set to turn just 21 years old at the start of spring training, Morejon already has all of the pieces in place except for that pesky durability, but of course none of it matters if he can't stay healthy. At the least, he should be an impact lefty reliever.
- Michel Baez (2020 Age: 24): Baez, another Cuban who signed for a big bonus in 2016 ($3 million), has followed Morejon's development path but he's a very different pitcher. Three years older and eight inches taller, he stands 6'8" and also sits in the mid 90's with his fastball. His go to breaking ball is a slider, though he also has a curve and a changeup, though all together the arsenal is a bit inconsistent. That spreads to his command, which comes and goes, and ultimately it's hard to say whether he'll be able to stick in the rotation. In 2019, Baez posted a 2.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings at AA Amarillo, then went up to the majors and put up a 3.03 ERA and a 28/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings in relief. Even though Baez has proven more durable to this point, I'd project Morejon as the better prospect because he's a much more complete pitcher at a younger age, but Baez does retain a high ceiling. There's a good chance he ends up a power reliever, where his 6'8" height would also be a big boon.
- Ronald Bolanos (2020 Age: 23): Yet another Cuban signed in 2016, Bolanos went for $2 million but has flown a bit more under the radar in the shadows of Morejon and Baez. That changed in 2019, when he broke out and posted a 3.66 ERA, a a 1.24 WHIP, and a 142/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, and he also put up a 5.95 ERA and a 19/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 19.2 major league innings. The 6'3" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a whole set of secondary pitches, and while none of them stand out as true out pitches, he mixes them effectively and gets some deception in his delivery to help them play up. He also throws his share of strikes, and in all he projects as a #4 or #5 starter. However, he's proven more durable than Morejon and more consistent than Baez, so he might actually have the highest floor as a starter of the trio.
- Luis Patino (2020 Age: 20): Patino, in my opinion, is easily the second best pitching prospect in this system behind MacKenzie Gore. Signed for $120,000 out of Colombia in that same 2016 class that featured the trio of Cubans above him here, he's younger than all of them and has easily the most complete profile. In 2019, he posted a 2.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 123/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.2 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, despite not turning 20 until after the season. Patino has a lightning quick right arm, but the ball still seems to explode even quicker out of his hand and it sits in the low to mid 90's. He also adds a distinct slider and curveball as well as a changeup, and he commands all of it pretty well for someone his age. Patino needs to get more consistent with his all around game, but at just 20 years old, he's far more advanced than most arms his age and it all boils down to this; that's a special right arm, one with as much talent as you'll see anywhere. He doesn't throw as hard, but his athleticism and quick arm kind of remind me of Yordano Ventura.
- Pedro Avila (2020 Age: 23): Avila was originally a Nationals prospect who came over for Derek Norris in 2016, though 2019 was a bit of a lost season as he posted a 5.25 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 31/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings between AA Amarillo and some complex level rehab. However, he did make his MLB debut in April, where he threw 5.1 strong innings against the Diamondbacks, but he missed a big chunk of the season with elbow problems. When healthy, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball but gets really nice, late bite on his curveball and gets good fade on his changeup, and the throws just enough strikes with all three pitches in order to make them play up. Healthy now, he just needs to prove he can remain in and around the zone consistently in the bigs, though his lighter velocity might push him to the bullpen where he could add a tick or two. He's just about ready now, even post-injury, but this is a stacked system and there are quite a few arms ahead of him for rotation spots.
- Reggie Lawson (2020 Age: 22-23): Lawson went in the second competitive balance round out of high school in 2016, and he's a semi-local kid from Victorville, up in the desert north of San Bernardino. He's worked his way up one level at a time, though he missed most of 2019 with elbow problems and finished with a 5.20 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 36/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings at AA Amarillo. No worries, because Lawson did return for the Arizona Fall League and looked really good in eleven innings. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a big dropping curveball as well as a changeup, and with workable command, he definitely has the ability to start. The curve can look plus and the changeup can look above average at times, though both lack consistency and he does run the risk of becoming a fastball/curveball reliever, especially in this deep system. Despite this, you have to feel like Lawson is one or two adjustments away from breaking through, even after a few pro seasons, so I wouldn't give up on him as a starter just yet. He just has to get more consistent, which of course is easier said than done.
- Ryan Weathers (2020 Age: 20): Weathers garnered a lot of attention as one of the most advanced high school arms in the class in 2018, and the Padres grabbed him with the seventh overall pick out of a rural Middle Tennessee high school. In his first full season, he posted a 3.84 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 90/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings at Class A Fort Wayne, a very strong performance for a kid straight out of high school. Weathers sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a sharp curve and a very advanced changeup, all of which he commands very well. That all gives him less of the boom/bust profile that you see in most high school arms, as he's more like a college arm in that you know what you're getting and you just have to teach him to execute in pro ball. Weathers doesn't come with a ton of ceiling, but he has a very good shot at becoming an innings-eating #3 starter.
- Joey Cantillo (2020 Age: 20): Cantillo, a 16th round pick out of high school in Hawaii in 2017 who was born one day after Weathers in December 1999, was a little known teenage prospect coming into the season who didn't throw particularly hard or have great offspeed stuff. That changed in 2019, though, as he was one of the minors' biggest surprises by posting a 2.26 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 144/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings at Class A Fort Wayne and High A Lake Elsinore. The 6'4" lefty only sits around 90 with his fastball, sometimes bumping higher, and adds a full set of secondaries that he mixed well enough to miss a ton of Midwest League bats in 2019. He does a good job of throwing strikes and gets most of his outs with his changeup, and everything plays up because he can effectively mix his four pitches. Cantillo still has a lot of work to do, namely adding velocity and sharpening one or both of his breaking balls, but you can't argue with the numbers and Class A hitters were simply dumbfounded by the then-19 year old's stuff.
- Anderson Espinoza (2020 Age: 22): It's been three and a half years since Espinoza last threw a pitch on a professional mound, but that only speaks to how talented he is to still have his name on this list. Forearm problems kept him off the mound for most of 2017, then surgery late in the year wiped out the rest of the season as well as his 2018 season. A second Tommy John surgery knocked him out for the 2019 season as well, so fingers crossed that 2020 is the year. Back when he was pitching, Espinoza showed a low to mid 90's fastball as well as a curve and a changeup, and all three could be plus pitches. His command was also really good for an 18 year old, which will hopefully help him as he gets back on the found for the first time in ages. Espinoza has everything to prove and we don't know what kind of pitcher he will be when he gets back, whether he'll stick in the rotation or not, etc., but the good news is he was so young when he got hurt that he only turns 22 in spring training, making him the same age as most 2019 college draftees.
- Keep an eye on: Jacob Nix, Jerry Keel, Lake Bachar, Aaron Leasher, Caleb Boushley, Osvaldo Hernandez

Relief Pitching
- Steven Wilson (2020 Age: 25): Wilson was an eighth round pick out of Santa Clara in 2018, but as a redshirt senior who was old for his class, he had already turned 24 by the end of his pro debut and carried a 7.88 ERA at that. However, things changed in a big way in 2019, when he posted a 2.67 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an 86/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AAA El Paso, two very hitter-friendly environments. A starter back at Santa Clara, he's seen a velocity bump in relief and now sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball, adding a slider and a cutter on top of it. The slider has great diagonal movement while the cutter can run to the glove side, and with his armside running fastball, he's a power arm that can make his pitches move essentially in any direction he wants them to. His command is decent and it hasn't hurt him in the minors, though in the majors he'll probably want to take a little step forward there if he wants to be more than a middle reliever.
- Henry Henry (2020 Age: 21): Of course, how can we not talk about the kid named Henry Henry here. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, Henry transitioned to a full time reliever this year and put up a 3.32 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an 80/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings at Class A Fort Wayne, a nice step forward from what he was doing in the rotation. He possesses easy velocity in the low to mid 90's, and he adds a nice curveball with two plane break. For now, what stands out is Henry's ability to throw strikes, his biggest improvement from 2018 to 2019, as well as the ease with which he throws. It's not out of the realm of possibility to see another velocity bump, as he'll play all of 2020 at 21 years old and now has a full year in the bullpen under his belt. Probably more of a middle relief profile, but it's fun to track a kid with a name like Henry Henry.
- Mason Thompson (2020 Age: 22): Thompson was an over slot third round pick out of an Austin-area high school in 2016, though he's struggled to stay healthy and has just 159.1 pro innings under his belt in four seasons. In 2019, he posted a 7.24 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and a 25/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 innings between High A Lake Elsinore and complex level rehab work, though elbow problems bothered him mid season. Given that his injury history goes back to high school Tommy John surgery, it's probably pretty clear that he won't hold up in a starting role and he'll probably get run out as a reliever eventually. Thompson is extremely tall, standing 6'7", and that helps him get good angle on his pitches and run his fastball into the mid 90's. However, all of his secondary pitches lack consistency and his command collapsed as he battled injuries this year. He has shown strike throwing aptitude in the past and his slider has some nice, late break, so there is potential for him to take a big step forward in the bullpen.
- Keep an eye on: David Bednar, Elliot Ashbeck, Mason Fox, Dylan Coleman, Ignacio Feliz

Reviewing the Cincinnati Reds Farm System

The Reds don't have the deepest farm system in the world, but their top five rivals some of the best in the game, giving them a very good chance at having two star, homegrown infielders (Nick Senzel and Jonathan India), a star, homegrown outfielder (Taylor Trammell), and two star, home grown pitchers (Hunter Greene and Tony Santillan). Beyond those five, there aren't many impact prospects, with most of the rest of the better prospects being lower down in the minors as recent draftees or signees, especially with Shed Long gone to the Mariners. By the time you read this, the list might look very different with a potential J.T. Realmuto trade in the works as I write this.

Affiliates: AAA Louisville Bats, AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos*, High A Daytona Tortugas, Class A Dayton Dragons, rookie level Billings Mustangs and Greeneville Reds, complex level GCL and DSL Reds
*AA affiliate will move from Pensacola, FL to Chattanooga, TN in 2019

The Big Five: 3B Nick Senzel, OF Taylor Trammell, 3B Jonathan India, RHP Tony Santillan, and RHP Hunter Greene
The Reds have one of the best top fives in baseball, and these guys alone make the system one of the game's best. We'll start with 23 year old Nick Senzel, a former second overall pick (2016) out of Tennessee who slashed .310/.378/.509 with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 39/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at AAA Louisville this year, though vertigo and a finger injury limited his time on the field. He's hoping to be fully healthy in 2019, where he'll have a chance to crack the major league roster with his broad skill set; he makes consistent hard contact, shows some power, and plays very good defense at third base. He's currently blocked by Eugenio Suarez at third base and by Scooter Gennett at second, but with a bat (and glove) like his, the Reds will find a place to put him. Senzel is not too dissimilar to Jose Ramirez as a player (though he's a little bigger and can't switch hit) and if everything works out, he could have a similar career in Cincinnati as a best-case scenario. A little lower down is 21 year old and fellow 2016 draftee (competitive balance round, 35th overall) Taylor Trammell, who slashed .277/.375/.406 with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 105/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Daytona. He is a very hard-working player who shows a great feel for the barrel and is beginning to grow into some power, giving him the chance to be an impact bat who can also steal plenty of bases. Defensively, he's closer to average in the outfield than you would expect given his profile, but he's young and the Reds have high hopes that he continues to improve his game to the point where he becomes a long-term starting center or left fielder with 20-20 ability. 22 year old Jonathan India was just drafted fifth overall in 2018 following a monster junior season at Florida (21 HR, .350/.497/.717), which he then followed up with a productive pro debut where he slashed .240/.380/.433 with six home runs and a 44/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games between rookie affiliates Billings and Greeneville as well as Class A Dayton. He's currently hit over power and I think he'll stay that way, but with solid infield defense, he should have no problem remaining a high level prospect even if the power doesn't reach better than average. I'm not as high on India as some evaluators, but he's still an exciting prospect who projects to post high on-base percentages and double digit home run totals while holding down a starting infield spot in the majors. 21 year old Tony Santillan was actually a 2015 draftee (second round, 49th overall) out of a central Texas high school, and he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 134/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 149 innings at Daytona and AA Pensacola in 2018 to really establish himself as an impact pitching prospect. He easily sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider and changeup, and when you combine that stuff with his pretty good command, he's a well rounded prospect with a #2 starter ceiling and with less risk than many high-upside guys. Further honing in his control will help him reach that ceiling, where he could stick in the Reds rotation for a long time, but even as-is he could probably cut it as a back-end guy. Lastly, we have 19 year old Hunter Greene, the fireballing right hander who was taken second overall out of high school in southern California in 2017. Greene had mixed results in his full season debut this year, posting a 4.48 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 89/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.1 innings at Class A Dayton. The first thing that jumps out with Greene is his fastball, which sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 103. I saw him pitch at the All Star Futures Game in Washington this past summer, and let me tell you, even from the right field bleachers I could tell that his fastball was simply next-level. His slider is coming along and for such a young player (he won't even turn 20 until August) with such elite velocity, his command is actually pretty good. The major drawback for Greene is injury risk, as is always the case with pitchers who throw so hard, and his elbow strain that caused him to miss some time in 2018 isn't easing anyone's minds. He's said to be fully healthy at this point, so we should all be crossing our fingers that he stays that way because frankly, he's simply fun to watch. Even if durability concerns or slower-than-expected development of his offspeeds force him from the rotation, he has closer upside out of the bullpen.

Outfield Group: OF TJ Friedl, OF Jose Siri, OF Stuart Fairchild, OF Michael Beltre, OF Mariel Bautista, and OF Mike Siani
Arguably the deepest part of the Cincinnati farm system is the outfield, where Taylor Trammell leads a large group of talented players looking to break through in the future. Trammell aside, the most advanced prospect is 23 year old TJ Friedl, who never registered for the 2016 draft because he (and somehow, MLB's thirty clubs) did not realize he was eligible. The Reds won a bidding war and gave him the largest signing bonus ever for an un-drafted free agent at $735,000, and he hit the ground running. In 2018, he slashed .284/.381/.384 with five home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 100/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games for High A Daytona and AA Pensacola, showing great on-base ability and speed along the way. At just 5'10", he lacks much present power and is unlikely to develop much down the line, but with the aforementioned speed and high on-base percentages, he shouldn't need it to reach the majors. That lack of power does, however, make him less likely to become a full-time starter in the majors, but there is still a chance if he hits enough. His defense is fairly average despite his speed, so it neither hurts nor helps his case. 23 year old Jose Siri is a raw, toolsy player who slashed .239/.294/.449 with 13 home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 123/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games between Daytona and Pensacola, which was a step back from his big 2017 in Class A (24 HR, 46 SB, .293/.341/.530). He has that power/speed combination that scouts love, and his cannon arm only helps his case as an excellent baseball athlete. However, he struggles to get to that power in games, leaving evaluators wondering if he will ever hit enough to hold down a starting spot in the majors. His aggressive approach limits his walks, and his swing and miss tendencies caught up to him in High A and AA this year. He needs more seasoning in the minors, but he still has a very high ceiling if he can make everything click, because power hitters who can nail runners at the plate with great throws from center field can naturally contribute to their teams in a lot of ways. He just has to improve his approach and pitch recognition. Behind Friedl and Siri is 22 year old Stuart Fairchild, a former second round pick (38th overall) out of Wake Forest in 2017 who slashed .264/.344/.407 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 128/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Class A Dayton and Daytona. He doesn't have the prettiest swing in the world but he takes an advanced approach to the plate and makes good contact, giving him high on-base percentages. He's also fast and covers plenty of ground in the outfield, taking some pressure off the bat, but I wasn't a huge fan on draft day and that hasn't changed. He seems like a fourth outfielder to me and I would call Friedl the better prospect, though he can change that by cutting his strikeout rate in 2019. 23 year old Michael Beltre has moved slowly through the system, and he spent 2018 slashing .278/.397/.402 with five home runs, 22 stolen bases, and an 85/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games at Dayton and Daytona. He has an extremely advanced approach at the plate, which helped him adjust well to A ball and should help him adjust to AA in 2019, though the bat itself lacks much punch aside from some gap power. His speed and advanced approach buy the bat time, but he's unlikely to end up more than a fourth outfielder if something big doesn't change with the bat. 21 year old Mariel Bautista, like Beltre, has moved slowly, and he slashed .330/.386/.541 with eight home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 29/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at rookie level Billings. The numbers were fantastic, but it's important to remember that he was 20 years old facing mostly teenage or just-out-of-college competition, and his transition to full season ball, especially above Class A, will be important in accurately evaluating him. In rookie ball, he showed power, speed, and a great ability to avoid strikeouts, and if he keeps that up as he moves through the minors, he'll be a legitimate prospect. For now, we're more in wait-and-see mode. Lastly, 19 year old Mike Siani was just drafted in the fourth round of the 2018 draft out of high school in Philadelphia, and he had a successful debut by slashing .288/.351/.386 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 35/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games with rookie level Greeneville. On draft day, he was more well known for his great defense than his bat, which needed refinement, but the successful run through Appalachian League pitching shows that the bat might be more advanced than initially expected. I actually think that some power will come too, which will make him a complete player if everything holds up. Of course, that's a big "if" because 46 games in rookie ball isn't the be-all, end-all, but signs are pointing up for Siani and he could be one of the team's top prospects a year from now.

Infielders and Catchers: C Tyler Stephenson, SS Alfredo Rodriguez, SS Jose Garcia, and 1B Ibandel Isabel
It's a good thing that two of the Reds' best prospects are Nick Senzel and Jonathan India, because after those two, there isn't much in terms of infielders in this system. They do have one viable catcher in 22 year old Tyler Stephenson, which is not something all systems can say, and Stephenson just slashed .250/.338/.392 with 11 home runs and a 98/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at High A Daytona. He's an uncommon catching prospect who can both field and hit, though both will continue to need work. He's got power but doesn't always get to it, and with his moderate on-base ability, the bat is fairly fringy overall. Fortunately for him, the offensive bar for catchers is low and the Reds will give him plenty of time to figure out how to get to his power more consistently, in which case he could be a starting major league catcher. 24 year old Alfredo Rodriguez, who signed for $7 million out of Cuba in 2016, is an interesting prospect because he's a fantastic defender at shortstop but so far in his three minor league seasons, he hasn't hit a lick. In 2018, he slashed .210/.273/.312 with two home runs and a 32/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games in complex ball, Daytona, and AA Pensacola while missing time with wrist issues. Having a wicked glove at a premium position will buy your bat all the slack in the world (see Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Smith), but the bat has to do something in order for him to be useful in the long run. If the bat picks up to the point where he can hit some doubles and get on base at a .300 clip next season, he could crack it as a utility infielder in the majors. 20 year old Jose Garcia signed for $5 million out of Cuba a year after Rodriguez, but so far, he has hit a little better than is elder (and higher paid) counterpart. In his first pro season in 2018, he slashed .245/.290/.344 with six home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 112/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at Class A Dayton. He's a solid defender at shortstop but not nearly of Rodriguez's caliber, though he's also almost four years younger and hasn't been completely inept at the plate. His plate discipline needs a ton of work and he was overmatched at times by Midwest League pitching, but he has a high offensive ceiling as a guy who can impact the game with more than just his speed. At this point, consider Garcia kind of a wild card, ultimately taking on a utility infielder projection for now but with more (or less) possible. Lastly, 23 year old Ibandel Isabel has some of the most impressive raw power in the system, finishing a 2018 where he blasted 36 home runs and slashed .257/.332/.562 with a 161/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games in High A. Isabel was acquired from the Dodgers for Ariel Hernandez back in April and can really put a charge into the ball, but his sub-par plate discipline leads to far too many strikeouts at this point. He will have to really improve his approach if he wants to produce in the high minors and the majors, and as a first baseman, his defense isn't buying his bat any slack. That said, that power could play really well in Great American Ballpark if he can just get the bat on the ball at a decent rate.

The Pitchers: RHP Keury Mella, RHP Vladimir Gutierrez, LHP Scott Moss, LHP Packy Naughton, RHP Jimmy Herget, and RHP James Marinan
Even after Tony Santillan and Hunter Greene, the Reds still have a solid group of pitchers to develop with a variety of skills and projections. 25 year old Keury Mella, who was signed by the Giants out of the Dominican Republic way back in 2012, was acquired with Adam Duvall in the 2015 Mike Leake trade and has seemingly been a prospect forever. This year, the 6'2" righty posted a 3.00 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 101/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 innings at AA Pensacola and AAA Louisville, also adding four unsuccessful major league appearances (8.68 ERA, 8/8 K/BB). He is presently and always has been about stuff over refinement, coming in with a mid 90's fastball and a good slider but lacking much else to really get himself over the hump and be successful in the majors. He clearly has the minor leagues handled judging by his good numbers in the high minors this year, but major league hitters punish his mistakes too regularly. He still has a shot to compete as a starter, but converting him to relief, where his fastball/slider combination could play up, could help him finally stick in the majors for good. 23 year old Vladimir Gutierrez was signed out of Cuba in 2016, and he reached AA in 2018 and posted a 4.35 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 145/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 147 innings with Pensacola. Though he's just six feet tall, Gutierrez has very high upside with his stuff (mid 90's fastball, bat-missing slider) and control that a lot of other young pitchers struggle to put together. He has been plagued by inconsistency in his career, looking like an ace at times and like the opposite at others, but he has been getting better about bringing the same stuff and control from start to start and 2019 could be a real breakout year for him. If not, he could find himself in a similar limbo to Keury Mella down the line. 24 year old Scott Moss has moved slowly for a college pitcher coming from a major program, in this case Florida, spending 2018 at High A and posting a 3.68 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 112/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings at Daytona. The 6'5" lefty doesn't have a standout pitch but uses his pitchability well, and if he can improve his command a little bit, he could sneak up as a back-end starter. Not that it matters, but Moss has been very lucky when it comes to run support and carries an impressive 31-11 record over three minor league seasons, including a 15-4 mark in 2018. I watched 22 year old Packy Naughton a lot in college at Virginia Tech, and he's interesting to say the least. He has a delivery, a funky name, and even a funky throws left/bats right profile. He dominated the Cape Cod League, the nation's premier collegiate summer league, with a 1.69 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.2 innings in 2016, but sucked in his three years at Virginia Tech from 2015-2017 (7-14, 6.13 ERA, 172/87 K/BB) even after the strong Cape performance. Admittedly, Virginia Tech's program as a whole was sub-par while he was there to say the least, and he has taken better than I expected to pro ball. In 2018, he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 137/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 154 innings at Class A Dayton, showing much better control than he had in college. His stuff is largely average but the quirkiness in his delivery makes it play up, and the Reds must have done something with his mechanics because he's in the strike zone much more. He's still inconsistent, though he has had quite a few more good days in pro ball than he had in college and while I saw him as a reliever back then, he might be able to crack it as a back-end starter with a little more refinement. 25 year old Jimmy Herget is a relief prospect who faired well this year by posting a 3.47 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 65/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings at AAA Louisville, doing so with a very good fastball/slider combination that can come from multiple arm angles. Dominant for his first three pro seasons after being drafted out of USF in the sixth round, he finally had to start making adjustments in AAA, but the 6'3" righty is major league ready and should compete for a middle relief spot in 2019 with a larger role possible if he's successful. Lastly, 20 year old James Marinan came over from the Dodgers in the small Dylan Floro trade in July, and he posted a 3.35 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 50/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.2 innings in complex ball and rookie level Billings. He was a fourth round pick out of a south Florida high school in 2017 and he's mostly about his fastball at this point; he throws in the low to mid 90's and gets a lot of ground balls from a 6'5" frame, though the rest of his stuff is yet to take the step forward. That's okay considering he'll spend the entire 2019 season at 20 years old, and if just one of his slider, curveball, or changeup becomes a little sharper in full season ball, the Reds will suddenly have a potential impact pitching prospect on their hands.