Despite a disappointing rookie year for Justus Sheffield, this is one of the most improved systems in the game, and the Mariners can really thank three players for that. We already knew Evan White was good, and he did take a small step forward with his power, but three guys really exceeded their already high expectations: outfielders Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez and pitcher Logan Gilbert. Those three now look like legitimate stars, while White and guys like Justin Dunn, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, and Cal Raleigh look like they'll be effective contributors as soon as 2020. They also have a nice, strong relief corps in the upper minors between Sam Delaplane, Joey Gerber, Art Warren, Wyatt Mills, and the recently acquired Aaron Fletcher and Taylor Guilbeau, and that's a whole bullpen right there. The system might still be a little shallow in the infield dirt behind White, but the rest of the system is looking a lot better than it did a year ago.
Affiliates: AAA Tacoma Rainiers, AA Arkansas Travelers, High A Modesto Nuts, Class A West Virginia Power, short season Everett AquaSox, rookie level AZL and DSL Mariners
Catcher
- Cal Raleigh (2020 Age: 23): Raleigh was a third round pick out of Florida State in 2018, and a huge first full season meant that he turned out to be more advanced on both sides of the ball than originally anticipated. Skipping over Class A entirely, he slashed .251/.323/.497 with 29 home runs and a 116/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at High A Modesto and AA Arkansas. Raleigh is a switch hitter with a lot of power from both sides of the plate, and while there was some swing and miss in his game in college, he managed to keep the strikeouts reasonably low and get to his power consistently in 2019. Defensively, Raleigh was a bit rough with both the arm and the glove when he entered pro ball, but he's smoothed it out surprisingly quickly and now looks like he'll stay behind the plate. At this point, he looks like he'll be the Mariners' catcher of the future, one who provides most of his value with his bat by hitting 20-25 home runs annually with decent on-base percentages.
- Carter Bins (2020 Age: 21): Bins, an over slot eleventh round pick out of Fresno State in 2019, doesn't quite have the ceiling of Raleigh but he could be a nice backup down the line. In his pro debut, he slashed .208/.391/.357 with seven home runs and a 56/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games at short season Everett, which was about expected given his pre-draft profile. He was a streaky hitter in college and continued to be in pro ball, showing some power and good patience at the plate, though that patience did lead to a high strikeout rate. Bins is also a very good defensive catcher, taking pressure off his bat, and his profiles as the kind of guy who could hit 10-15 home runs annually in the majors with decent on-base percentages he gets more consistent at the plate.
- Keep an eye on: Jose Caguana
Corner Infield
- Evan White (2020 Age: 24): White has an interesting profile as a rare glove-first first baseman. Of course, the Mariners didn't draft him in the middle of the first round out of Kentucky in 2017 without thinking he would be an impact hitter, and the bat has held up in pro ball with a .293/.350/.488 slash line, 18 home runs, and a 92/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games at AA Arkansas in 2019. He came into pro ball with a flat, line drive-oriented swing, but the Mariners got him to start hitting the ball in the air a little more in 2019 and it helped improved his ISO from .153 in 2018 to .195 in 2019 despite moving to a more pitcher-friendly league. That likely will be the difference in him becoming a future impact player for the Mariners, one who can now hit 15-20 home runs annually with high on-base percentages. That would be just a decent projection for a first baseman, except that he's such an exceptional defender around the bag that he'll be a big net-positive on defense. White will likely take over as the starting first baseman in 2020 and he's an early contender for the AL Rookie of the Year Award if he can maintain the strides he's made with his power production.
- Joe Rizzo (2020 Age: 22): Rizzo was a second round pick out of high school a town over from me in Virginia in 2016, so I played against him a few times in high school. Very much a bat-first prospect, he took a few years to get going at the plate while he was pushed aggressively by the Mariners, but he finally started to get it figured out in 2019 when he slashed .295/.354/.423 with ten home runs and a 94/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at High A Modesto. He's a bit undersized at a listed 5'10" (probably a little smaller than that), and it took a little bit for him to tap into his power. That power is more to the gaps than over the fence, and he set a career high with 30 doubles in 2019, and he has a strong enough approach at the plate to make it play up. It will have to, because he's below average at third base and he's too short to play first base. He doesn't turn 22 until right before the start of the season, so he has time to continue to develop, but his future is contingent on maintaining the strides he made at the plate and proving it wasn't a California League mirage.
- Austin Shenton (2020 Age: 22): Shenton may have been a fifth round pick out of Florida International University, but he's every bit of a hometown guy for the Mariners in that he grew up in Bellingham and spent a year at Bellevue Community College before transferring to FIU. He impressed in his pro debut to earn his spot in this writeup, slashing .298/.376/.510 with seven home runs and a 44/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games at short season Everett and Class A West Virginia. A hit over power guy at FIU, he lifted the ball more in pro ball and hit for more power than expected while keeping his strikeout rate at a reasonable level. A third baseman for now, he's fairly mediocre there, so there's a chance he shifts positions to second base or the outfield. If he can keep up the power surge he showed in a small sample in 2019, his bat should profile wherever he ends up.
- Keep an eye on: Jake Scheiner, Bobby Honeyman
Middle Infield
- Donnie Walton (2020 Age: 25-26): Walton, a fifth round pick out of Oklahoma State in 2016, has always hit just enough to stay relevant, but in 2019 he turned it up a notch and hit himself up to the majors. He hit .300/.390/.427 with eleven home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 72/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at AA Arkansas, then hit .188/.316/.188 with a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio in a brief, seven game call-up to the majors. He's not the most physical guy in the lineup at 5'10", but he's hit well due to very strong plate discipline and the ability to hunt his pitch in favorable counts. While that may not lead to a full time starting role, it bodes well for his ability to continue to hit at the major league level. He's a good with the glove but with a fringy arm, he fits better at second base than at shortstop. Expect to see him in the majors in a utility capacity in 2020.
- Joseph Rosa (2020 Age: 23): Rosa was a well-regarded prospect until he hit just .217/.299/.285 in Class A in 2018, but he bounced back nicely in 2019 by slashing .271/.366/.386 with four home runs and a 98/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Class A West Virginia and High A Modesto. Rosa is probably a bit light on tools if he wants to end up a full time starter, but he has a strong enough game across the board, especially with his strong plate discipline, to make it work as a utility infielder down the line. Now that he's started to get things figured out at the plate, he might start to move a little more quickly, too.
- Noelvi Marte (2020 Age: 18): Marte signed for $1.55 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, then had a weirdly streaky pro debut that featured 26 consecutive hitless at bats at one point and a streak of 11 multi hit games in a 15 game stretch at another. Overall, he slashed .309/.371/.511 with nine home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 55/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games in the Dominican Summer League, all at just 17 years old. He's an electric player, one who can hit for power and who got to it consistently in the DSL without striking out too much. He also has easy plus speed that enables him to be a force on the bases, and while it hasn't quite translated to his defensive game yet, it should help him there down the line. Marte is an aggressive hitter who will have to learn to control the strike zone once he starts to face more advanced pitchers, but he also will play all of 2020 at just 18 years old and has plenty of time to figure it out. He's a high ceiling talent for sure, though we don't know where his future lies on the diamond. For now, he's a shortstop and does have the potential to stick there if he gets more consistent.
- Keep an eye on: Jose Caballero, Mike Salvatore, Patrick Frick, Juan Querecuto
Outfield
- Jarred Kelenic (2020 Age: 20-21): Kelenic was on the older side for a high school prospect when he was drafted sixth overall by the Mets out of the Milwaukee area in 2018, turning 19 a month later, but he certainly made up for any perceived lost time by shooting up to AA in his first full season. Acquired from New York as part of the return for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, Kelenic slashed .291/.364/.540 with 23 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 111/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Class A West Virginia, High A Modesto, and AA Arkansas in 2019. Drafted for his advanced bat, he showed more power than anticipated as well, proving to be as complete of an all-around hitter as you can be in your age 19-20 season. Kelenic manages the strike zone very well for his age, had no problem against much older pitching, and tapped into some raw power that could help him hit 20-25 home runs annually at the major league level, with high on-base percentages. He's also a solid defender with a good arm, one who might not be a Gold Glover in center field but who could get the job done there, and his instincts on the bases helped his above average speed play up. He's probably not quite on superstar level, but he's one of the top prospects around at this point as someone who could impact the game in a variety of ways. Given how wide-open the Mariners outfield situation is, Kelenic might even be able to break through to a starting role at some point in 2020.
- Kyle Lewis (2020 Age: 24-25): Lewis was a potential top five pick in the 2016 draft after a massive season at Mercer, and the Mariners were ecstatic when he ultimately fell to them with the eleventh overall pick. However, it's been anything but a smooth ride for the Atlanta-area native as his pro debut was cut short by a bad knee injury that continued to linger into 2017 and even 2018. Fully healthy for perhaps the first time in three years this year, Lewis had his best pro season yet, slashing .263/.342/.398 with eleven home runs and a 152/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at AA Arkansas. Earning a call-up to the Mariners in September, he slashed .268/.293/.592 with six home runs in an excellent 18 game debut, though his 29/3 strikeout to walk ratio was just a bit worrisome. All the lost time from the knee injury probably cut down Lewis' ceiling a bit, but with his plus raw power and quick swing, the last thing for him in his development is really just to lock down the strike zone, which he can get to doing now that he's finally healthy. Controlling the zone will be the key to getting to his power consistently against big league pitching, though it take a little bit for him to figure it out consistently. The Mariners' outfield situation is wide open in 2020, with only Mitch Haniger having a locked down starting spot, and Lewis should have the inside track to earning a starting role out of the gate.
- Jake Fraley (2020 Age: 24-25): Fraley, originally a competitive balance pick out of LSU by the Rays in 2016, came over in the Mike Zunino/Mallex Smith deal a year ago. Fraley hit just .211/.279/.339 in an injury-shortened 2017, but turned it around in another injury-shortened 2018 where he hit .347/.415/.547 in High A. He proved that the turnaround was real in 2019, slashing .298/.365/.545 with 19 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and an 89/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at AA Arkansas and AAA Tacoma, then hit .150/.171/.200 with a 14/0 strikeout to walk ratio in a tough 12 game MLB debut. That power might be a bit of a mirage, as he has never been much of a power hitter before this season and he did spent 38 games in the hitters' heaven of the Pacific Coast League (where he hit eight of his 19 home runs), though he also began to lift the ball a bit more in 2019 and that tells me it's probably not a complete mirage. Fraley makes good, consistent, quality contact when healthy, and he adds great speed that really helped him on both sides of the ball. As I said with Lewis, that's a wide-open outfield situation in Seattle, and I wouldn't call it a stretch to think he could snag a starting spot at some point in 2020. Fraley could hit 10-15 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and some speed, but the big thing will be staying on the field because his 111 games in 2019 came on the heels of playing just a combined 96 from 2017-2018.
- Braden Bishop (2020 Age: 26): Bishop's bat is a bit light, but his glove got him to the majors in 2019 and it will at least keep him hanging around the fringes while he tries to get that bat over the hump. In 2019, he slashed .271/.358/.471 with eight home runs and a 53/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games at High A Modesto and AAA Tacoma, though you do have to take into consideration the hitter-friendly nature of both of those affiliates. He also spent some time with the major league club and slashed .107/.153/.107 with a 21/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 27 games. Bishop isn't a power hitter but does a good job of making consistent contact and using his plus speed to take extra bases when his hits fall into the gaps, and he does have a little over the fence pop when he gets into one. The bat was a bit exposed in his brief time in the majors in 2019, though he's a hard worker and should be able to get his hit tool to work just enough to carve out a fourth or fifth outfielder spot. The calling card is his defense, as he's excellent in center field and at the very least makes for a valuable defensive replacement late in games. In addition, Mariners fans will find Bishop will be easy to root for for a couple of reasons. First off, though he grew up in the San Francisco Bay Area, he's a product of the University of Washington, and secondly, he and his younger brother Hunter (a Giants' 2019 first rounder) run a charity called 4MOM, which works to spread awareness and raise money for Alzheimers research in honor of his late mother.
- Julio Rodriguez (2020 Age: 19): Kelenic's breakout was among the biggest stories on the Seattle farm this year, as it should have been, but it cause another huge breakout to go a bit under the radar. The Mariners signed Julio Rodriguez out of the Dominican Republic for $1.75 million in 2017, then after a successful debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 (.315/.404/.525), they skipped him all the way up to A ball for 2019. Despite the massive jump in competition, playing the season at just 18 years old, and missing time with a fractured hand, Rodriguez passed with flying colors by slashing .326/.390/.540 with 12 home runs and a 76/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games at Class A West Virginia and High A Modesto. He has good raw power from a simple, leveraged right handed swing, and given his age and size (listed 6'4", 225), he should easily add more and end up with true plus power down the road. He also manages the strike zone very well for his age, which enabled him to get up to High A at 18 years old, and that enables him to get to the barrel very consistently and will help him easily tap his power as he gets stronger. Really, there are just two things left for Rodriguez to figure out at the plate, and since he's set to play all of 2020 at 19 years old, he has plenty of time to do it. He needs to start lifting the ball more to get to his power, which should be no problem with his swing, and and he needs to stay within himself consistently at the plate; at times, Rodriguez would pull off the ball and try to do too much, but when he kept everything in line and stayed through the ball, that's when he was at his best. It's a really high ceiling for a really talented player already.
- Keep an eye on: Eric Filia, Dom Thompson-Williams, Cade Marlowe
Starting Pitching
- Logan Gilbert (2020 Age: 22-23): The Mariners drafted Gilbert in the middle of the first round out of Stetson in 2018, but held him out of game action after a long college season. They turned him loose in 2019, and the results were remarkable – Gilbert posted a 2.13 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 165/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 innings at Class A West Virginia, High A Modesto, and AA Arkansas. The Orlando native has a deep arsenal of effective pitches, led by a fastball that added a tick of velocity this year and now sits consistently in the mid 90's. He adds a slider, a curveball, and a changeup, all of which are effective, and the changeup especially took a step forward in pro ball. He also got more consistent with his command, and his 6'6" frame helps give him extra extension and make everything play up. Not that this was unforeseen, as he was an extremely highly regarded draft prospect in 2018, but he's a more complete pitcher than he was at this point a year ago and now looks like he could be a very good #2 starter, perhaps as soon as 2020.
- Justin Dunn (2020 Age: 24): Back in 2016, Dunn went to the Mets in the middle of the first round out of Boston College, but a rough 2017 set him back a bit as a prospect. He bounced back effectively in 2018, re-establishing himself as a top prospect, and he joined Kelenic and others in being shipped to Seattle in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal that offseason. In his new organization in 2019, Dunn posted a 3.55 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 158/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 131.2 innings at AA Arkansas, then reached the majors for a brief cup of coffee, allowing two runs on two hits and nine walks over 6.2 innings, striking out five. One of the better athletes in the system, Dunn sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a slider, a curve, and a changeup, and all are gradually improving. The slider is likely his best weapon at this point, but he has worked hard to make himself into more of a complete pitcher and it shows. He's gotten more consistent with his command, walking just 7.1% of his opponents in AA this year, and I'd be pretty comfortable attributing the high walk rate in his MLB debut to rookie jitters. Overall, he looks like a #3 or a #4 starter who could contribute in 2020.
- Justus Sheffield (2020 Age: 23-24): Given how shallow the Mariners are in starting pitching at the major league level, I'm not going to knock Sheffield to the bullpen just yet, as he does have the inside track to winning a spot in 2020. However, given his struggles with command, I'm not sure how long he'll last there. In 2019, he posted a 4.13 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 133/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 innings at AA Arkansas and AAA Tacoma, as well as a 5.50 ERA and a 37/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 36 major league innings. There's no question about his stuff, which is easily the best in the Mariners' system. He sits in the mid 90's with his ground ball-inducing fastball, adding a power slider that can be an out pitch when located and a changeup that has come along nicely. However, his command is well below average, making his stuff play down across the board, and even at 23 years old he remains much more of a thrower than a pitcher. However, he has shown the ability to throw consistent strikes at times, and he could be just a few small adjustments away from figuring it out and developing into a #2 or #3 starter. However, guys like Gilbert and Dunn have probably passed him on the depth chart, and if he fails to put it together in 2020, he could find himself as an effective lefty fastball/slider reliever.
- Ljay Newsome (2020 Age: 23): As far as I know, there haven't been any major leaguers to come out of Southern Maryland recently, but Ljay Newsome is looking to become the next. A 26th rounder out of high school in 2015, he's worked his way up slowly but broke out in 2019, posting a 3.54 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 169/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 155 innings at High A Modesto, AA Arkansas, and AAA Tacoma. Newsome's carrying tool has always been his pinpoint command, though the rest of his stuff is a bit fringy. His fastball did take a step forward and is now consistently in the low 90's, and he adds a slider, a curve, and a changeup. The slider has some nice, late break, and it's probably his best secondary pitch, but everything really just comes back to his ability to command it. Few minor leaguers can hit their spots like Newsome, and now with his added fastball velocity, he has legitimate aspirations of becoming a #4 starter in the near future. The ceiling is pretty limited, but the floor is pretty high.
- Ricardo Sanchez (2020 Age: 23): Sanchez was originally an Angels prospect but went to the Braves in 2015 for Kyle Kubitza, then got sold to the Mariners after the 2018 season. Always talented, he's faced constant questions about his work ethic that have slowed his development and caused him to be extremely inconsistent throughout his time in the Braves system. He continued to be inconsistent in 2019, but it seems that the change of scenery helped him at least get on the right track. In 2019, he had a 4.44 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 135/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 146 innings at AA Arkansas, getting more consistent with his solid stuff and command while setting a career high in innings by a long shot. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, which has some running life, and he adds a curve and a changeup that can both miss bats when they're on. At present, he's probably a #4/#5 starter, but with the gains it looks like he's made with his work ethic, he could end up as more.
- George Kirby (2020 Age: 22): The Mariners had success with a small school college starter in Logan Gilbert last year, so they grabbed another one in the first round in 2019, taking George Kirby from Elon. Kirby is a pretty similar pitcher to Gilbert, if with a bit lighter stuff and a bit better command, but he's just as good. In his pro debut, he posted a 2.35 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 25/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings at short season Everett, and when you add that to his Cape Cod League and college stats, he had an absurd 156/7 strikeout to walk ratio in 124 innings overall. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds two distinct, effective breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, as well as a changeup. For a command-first type, that's more than enough stuff, and it gives him more upside than you'd expect. There's a very good chance that a year from now, he's in the same spot that Gilbert is now, which is certainly a great place to be.
- Isaiah Campbell (2020 Age: 22-23): Campbell was a top draft prospect as an Arkansas redshirt sophomore in 2018, but he elected to go back to school for his redshirt junior season and the Mariners picked him up in the second competitive balance round in 2019. He didn't pitch in pro ball, but I do really like him as a prospect. He looked really, really good at times earlier in his college career, but he also missed time due to injuries and his command often wavered when he was on the mound, causing his stuff to play down at times. However, he got much more consistent with that command in 2019, causing his stuff to play up instead of down. The stuff isn't really a question, as he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and he gets good downhill plane on that pitch due to his high arm slot. His slider is his next best pitch, and he adds a curveball and a changeup. If he can get more consistent with those last two pitches, now that he's got solid average command, he has a really good shot at becoming a #3 or #4 starter. Even as is, I like his chances of becoming a #4 or a #5, or a power fastball/slider reliever whose stuff can play up from the high arm slot. For draft pick #76, this is great value.
- Brandon Williamson (2020 Age: 22): Williamson went in the second round out of TCU in 2019, then had a strong pro debut with a 2.35 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings at short season Everett. He's a 6'6" lefty who, at his best, can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and add three breaking balls, but both his stuff and his command were inconsistent at TCU. He looked good in that pro debut from both a stuff and a command perspective, but the Mariners have more work to do to get him to looking like that over 150 innings instead of 15. He has #3 starter potential if he does pull it together, but probably ends up in the bullpen if he doesn't.
- Juan Then (2020 Age: 20): Then is a bit of a sleeper, though he's already been traded twice and he's still a teenager – first from Seattle to the Bronx for Nick Rumbelow in 2017, then back to Seattle for Edwin Encarnacion in 2019. This year, he had a 2.98 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 48/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.1 innings between the complex level Arizona League, short season Everett, and Class A West Virginia, as he's been brought along slowly. Though he's just 19, he's actually more about pitchability than pure stuff, showing a low 90's fastball a solid curveball, and a good changeup, which he can mix effectively for someone his age. At a listed 6'1" and 155 pounds, he's got some projection remaining, which he'll need in order to survive the rigors of a longer season – at this point, he hasn't thrown more than 61.1 innings in any of his three. He'll pitch all of 2020 at 20 years old, and with a keen understanding of the game, he just needs to work on sharpening his stuff.
- Sam Carlson (2020 Age: 21): Carlson was drafted in the second round out of a Minneapolis-area high school in 2017, but he's thrown all of just three innings so far. Elbow discomfort cut his pro debut short, and a year later, he underwent Tommy John surgery, which ended his 2018 season and kept him out for all of 2019 as well. The good news is he should be fully healthy by the time spring training roles around, and had he attended Florida instead of going to pro ball, he'd just be entering his junior season anyways, so he's still younger than recent college draftees like George Kirby and Brandon Williamson. When he's healthy, he has three potential plus pitches that he can command in a mid 90's fastball, a great slider, and a great changeup, which gives him the ceiling of a true ace. However, he has everything to prove after three years away from the mound, as he'll have to re-establish his feel for all of his pitches as well as his command. He's probably the biggest wild card in the system.
- Keep an eye on: Max Povse, Anthony Misiewicz, Penn Murfee, Adam Hill, Tim Elliott, Brayan Perez, Levi Stoudt
Relief Pitching
- Sam Delaplane (2020 Age: 25): Delaplane was a 23rd round pick out of Eastern Michigan in 2017, but since then, all he's done is strike out 270 batters in just 161.1 innings. In 2019, he had a 2.23 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 120/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.2 innings at High A Modesto and AA Arkansas, then tossed another 2.2 shutout innings (with five strikeouts) in the Texas League playoffs. Delaplane sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider with average command, but everything plays up because hitters just can't pick up the ball out of his hand. He comes from a high arm slot, almost similar to the Dodgers' Marshall Kasowski, and the ball looks like it's coming out of his ear. So even though it's a middle relief profile with his lack of a true strikeout pitch, he will likely end up as more just because you just can't track his pitches.
- Aaron Fletcher (2020 Age: 24): Fletcher was the Nationals' 14th round pick out of Houston in 2018, then came over in the Hunter Strickland/Roenis Elias deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he posted a 2.09 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and an 84/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.1 innings at Class A, High A, and AA, though he doesn't fit the typical relief profile. The lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider and a decent changeup, but he makes everything play up due to his above average command as well as his ability to be much more pitcher than thrower. He hides the ball well in his deliberate delivery, and the angle he can put on his pitches makes them play up from the left side. Additionally, Fletcher has shown the ability to be effective over multiple innings, and I honestly think he could crack it as a #4 or a #5 starter, but the Mariners seem committed to him as a lefty long reliever.
- Joey Gerber (2020 Age: 22-23): Gerber was an eighth round pick out of Illinois in 2018, and as expected, he's moved quickly through the minors. After reaching Class A in his pro debut, Gerber had a strong first full season in 2019 with a 2.59 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 69/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.2 innings at High A Modesto and AA Arkansas, then added five shutout innings (with six K's and no walks) in the Texas League playoffs. Gerber is a fastball/slider guy that sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and gets good lateral movement on his frisbee slider, and both pitches play up because his funky delivery makes it difficult to pick them up. While his command can be just a bit shaky, he's done a good job of getting his funky delivery under control and keeping a consistent arm slot, which has helped him hit his spots more often than not. He should be in the bigs in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Taylor Guilbeau, Art Warren, Wyatt Mills, Dayeison Arias,
Showing posts with label Logan Gilbert. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Logan Gilbert. Show all posts
Sunday, January 5, 2020
Thursday, September 19, 2019
2018 Draft: A Year Later
One year does not tell you everything you need to know about a draft's success, but the first full season is often a huge tell as to how a player's amateur production will translate into pro ball. In 2017, 2016 second rounder Bo Bichette (Blue Jays) slashed .362/.423/.565 in A ball to turn himself into one of the top prospects in his draft class, while fourth overall pick Riley Pint's (Rockies) 5.42 ERA and poor 79/59 strikeout to walk ratio in Class A that year pointed towards what has ultimately been a disappointing start to his pro career and a greatly diminished prospect status. Now, this does go the other way. Using the same 2016 draft class, third rounder Austin Hays (Orioles) slashed .329/.365/.593 with 32 home runs in 2017 to vault himself all the way to the big leagues, but 2018 and 2019 have been rather pedestrian and he has lost some shine from that big first full season. On the flip side, first rounder Gavin Lux (Dodgers) looked rather mediocre in Class A that year with a .244/.331/.362 slash line, but he exploded for a .324/.399/.514 line in 2018 and is now one of the top prospects in the game.
All of that said about the 2016 draft, the first full season very important, and I'm ready to dive into the 2018 draftees and where they stand today at the end of the 2019 season. As a whole, this draft class is proving to be particularly strong as a lot of players have over-performed and very few have seriously under-performed.
The Top Five Picks
1-1: RHP Casey Mize (Auburn -> Detroit Tigers). Stock ticking up – cautiously
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP at High A and AA
It's been a roller coaster ride for Mize so far, as a lot happened in his first full season. He had some minor durability questions as an underclassman at Auburn, though he mostly alleviated them as a junior but was still held to just 13.2 innings in his pro debut in 2018 after a long season in the SEC. The Tigers turned him loose at High A Lakeland in 2019, and he quickly rewarded them with four exceptional starts, so he was promoted to AA Erie and threw a no-hitter in his first start at the level. As of June 13th, he had a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, but a minor shoulder injury shut him down that day and the entire state of Michigan held its breath. Fortunately, he returned in July, but he was knocked around a bit and had a 6.61 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 30/11 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 31.1 innings before being shut down. The Tigers maintain that he was healthy and that they felt he had accomplished everything he needed to in 2019 and that they were just monitoring his workload, but shoulder injuries are very scary and, at their worst, can end careers. In all, I'd take Mize's 2019 season as a success in that he proved he could dominate the upper minors in just his first full season, but I'm only cautiously optimistic because of the shoulder issue.
1-2: C Joey Bart (Georgia Tech -> San Francisco Giants). Stock holding
16 HR, .278/.328/.495, 5 SB, 71/21 K/BB, 128 wRC+ in 79 games at High A and AA
Aside from a broken left hand that kept him out of action from mid April until early June, Bart neither exceeded nor fell short of expectations in 2019. The 2018 second overall pick out of Georgia Tech began the season at High A San Jose, completely skipping Class A after spending most of his 2018 pro debut at short season Salem-Keizer, and he slashed .265/.315/.479 with 12 home runs and a 50/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games around that broken hand. Promoted to AA Richmond towards the end of the season, Bart held up well at the advanced level and slashed .316/.368/.544 with four home runs and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games, giving him 16 home runs and a .278/.328/.495 line on the abbreviated year. Bart showed his light-tower power throughout the season, though he didn't get to it quite consistently enough to warrant bumping his already valuable stock up further. Not known for strong plate discipline in college, his approach held up against advanced pitching and looks like it won't be a problem. Bart remains on track to take over the starting catching job from Buster Posey sometime in the next few seasons.
1-3: 3B Alec Bohm (Wichita State -> Philadelphia Phillies). Stock ticking up
21 HR, .305/.378/.518, 6 SB, 73/57 K/BB, 160 wRC+ in 125 games at Class A, High A, and AA
Like Bart, Alec Bohm was known in college for his prodigious raw power. The Phillies weren't quite as aggressive with the Wichita State product, starting him at Class A Lakewood, and he proved quickly that he didn't belong by slashing .367/.441/.595 with three home runs in 22 games, earning a promotion to High A Clearwater. Despite the pitcher-friendly environment, he still slashed .329/.395/.506 with four home runs and a 21/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. He earned a promotion to AA Reading, though at this point, he had hit "just" seven home runs in 62 games – not a bad number, especially considering his high on-base percentage, but you'd hope for more out of your star third overall pick who was known for his power. In hitter-friendly Reading, that power finally showed up and he slashed .269/.344/.500 with 14 home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games to close out the year. Together, that meant 21 home runs and a .305/.378/.518 line in his first full season, showing a potent all-around bat that should be major league ready in 2020. With the juiced balls in AAA and the majors, he should have no problem getting to his power up there and his strong plate discipline will help him be a true middle of the order threat.
1-4: SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State -> Chicago White Sox). Stock ticking up
4 HR, .311/.377/.414, 35 SB, 16/44 K/BB, 125 wRC+ in 120 games at High A, AA, and AAA
While Bohm started in Class A, Madrigal joined Mize and Bart with that aggressive assignment to High A, in this case Winston-Salem, and he responded by slashing .272/.346/.377 with two home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 6/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Those weren't the flashiest numbers, but Madrigal is listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, so it was a big step towards proving he could hit pro pitching with authority. Called up to AA Birmingham, he improved to .341/.400/.451 with one home run, 14 stolen bases, and a 5/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games, earning yet another promotion up to AAA Charlotte barely a year after he was drafted. A .331/.398/.424 with a home run, four stolen bases, and a 5/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games closed out his season, and he finished at .309/.371/.398 with 35 stolen bases and just 16 strikeouts in 120 games, good for a 3% strikeout rate. The scouting report today stands exactly the same as it did last year when he was drafted, but now not only does he make the easiest contact in minor league baseball while stealing plenty of bases, he can hit for *some* moderate power as well with 27 doubles, five triples, and four home runs this year. Now a second baseman, where he fits better, he'll match up well with Tim Anderson when he reaches the majors in 2020, likely shortly after his 23rd birthday.
1-5: 3B Jonathan India (Florida -> Cincinnati Reds). Stock down a tick
11 HR, .259/.365/.402, 11 SB, 110/59 K/BB, 129 wRC+ in 121 games at High A and AA
Jonathan India's massive offensive outburst as a junior at Florida in 2018 propelled him into the first round, where I ranked him twelfth on my personal list and where the Reds drafted him with the fifth overall pick. As his first full season comes to a close, I'm feeling pretty good about that #12 ranking and my feeling that #5 was a bit too high seems to be reaffirmed. That said, while India failed to live up to expectations in 2019, I wouldn't call this year a full-on disappointment given the pitcher-friendly contexts he played in. India started off at High A Daytona Beach, where he slashed a rather pedestrian .256/.346/.410 with eight home runs and an 84/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games. Promoted up to AA Chattanooga in July, he finished off the season by slashing .270/.414/.378 with three home runs and a 26/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games, giving him eleven home runs and a .259/.365/.402 line for the year. India showed strong plate discipline to go with average power and contact ability, and though the power didn't really carry over to AA, he remains a highly regarded prospect who should be an all-around contributor at the major league level. As I said with Bohm, the juiced balls at AAA and the majors should help him tap into that power a bit more, and he could be a solid #5 hitter with the Reds in the near future. I just don't see him as a future star.
Stock Way Up
1-6: OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West (WI) HS -> New York Mets -> Seattle Mariners)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 111/50 K/BB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games at Class A, High A, and AA
If we were to re-do the 2018 Draft this winter, Casey Mize would probably still go first overall, but Jarred Kelenic would have a real shot at going second after after his monster first full season left the Mets regretting trading him to the Mariners in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal. Like most advanced high school bats, Kelenic started the season in Class A with West Virginia, but he only lasted 50 games after he slashed .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs and a 45/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to High A Modesto, he kept on hitting against advanced competition to the tune of a .290/.353/.485 line, six home runs, and a 49/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. In August, the Mariners decided to turn him loose up at AA Arkansas, where he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six more home runs and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games against extremely advanced pitching. We all knew he was advanced for a high schooler, but even then, a 20-20 season and a .291/.364/.540 line while reaching AA is extremely impressive. Unlike most high school draftees, Kelenic is on the fast track to the majors, and he could be a productive, top of the lineup hitter in the Mariners' lineup sooner rather than later.
1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson -> Seattle Mariners)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Well, what can you say, the 2018 Draft has been good to the Seattle Mariners. Not only has Jarred Kelenic established himself as one of the top prospects in baseball, Logan Gilbert has bumped his name among the best pitching prospects as well. After holding him out of game action in 2018 following a long season with Stetson, the Mariners started him off slowly with a relatively conservative assignment to Class A West Virginia, where he posted a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 36/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings before his promotion drew a collective sigh of relief across South Atlantic League lineups. Up at High A Modesto, his opponents didn't fare much better, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings, forcing another promotion. Up at AA Arkansas by mid-July, he had a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over nine starts to finish off one of the finest pitching seasons in the minors this year. He entered the year with good, not great, stuff across the board, but it all played up exceptionally well as he missed bats left and right while maintaining the above average command that helped him go in the first round. Viewed as a potential #2 or #3 starter at draft time, Gilbert looks like he could be a true ace in the near future.
1-28: OF Seth Beer (Clemson -> Houston Astros -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
26 HR, .289/.388/.516, 0 SB, 113/46 K/BB, 155 wRC+ at High A and AA
At Clemson, Seth Beer put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers against strong ACC pitching, but his pronounced history of struggling with wood bats against top competition left teams wondering what his bat would look like in pro ball. Combine that with little to no defensive value and Beer was an enigmatic prospect to the fullest extent. He slashed .304/.389/.496 and reached Class A in his 67 game pro debut in 2018 after going to the Astros in the back of the first round, but his monster 2019 season got rid of any concerns that his bat would play up. After slashing .328/.414/.602 with nine home runs in 35 games at High A Fayetteville, he was quickly promoted to AA Corpus Christi, where he slashed .299/.407/.543 over 63 games before slumping to .205/.297/.318 after being traded to the Diamondbacks. Beer's big production proves he's much closer to the hitter he was at Clemson rather than the one he was over the summers, and this Seth Beer could have been a top ten pick with plate discipline, power, and the ability to get to it. He still won't provide any defensive value, but his bat will slot right into the middle of the Arizona lineup.
2-63: OF Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel [IL] HS -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
10 HR, .300/.379/.450, 15 SB, 105/52 K/BB, 140 wRC+ at Class A and High A
Thomas' numbers don't quite pop off the page like some of the names above him, but for a second rounder that was pegged as a fringy starter/possible fourth outfielder, he's certainly exceeded expectations by a long shot. Thomas started off at Class A Kane County and raked to the tune of a .312/.393/.479 line, eight home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 72/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games in the pitcher-friendly league. Aggressively promoted up to High A Visalia just a few months after his 19th birthday, he slashed a respectable .255/.327/.340 with a pair of home runs and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games against advanced competition. We all knew that Thomas had an advanced feel for the game, but we questioned his tools. He showed that strong plate discipline and defense this year, but he also proved he could hit for impact, and that could be the difference between him developing into a fourth outfielder and a legitimate, dynamic, every day contributor.
CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (Le Moyne -> Cincinnati Reds -> Los Angeles Dodgers)
11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Just as the Mets probably regret trading Jarred Kelenic, the Reds probably regret dealing Josiah Gray in the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp deal. A shortstop when he first reached Division II Le Moyne College in Syracuse, New York, Gray transitioned to the mound and immediately showed a tremendous ceiling. A strong pro debut with Greeneville in the rookie level Appalachian League (2.58 ERA, 59/17 K/BB) in 2018 was an encouraging sign, but he proved in 2019 that he is much more advanced than originally anticipated and that he's flying towards that high ceiling. The Dodgers reasonably started him at Class A Great Lakes, but he put up a 1.93 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings and he was quickly bumped to High A Rancho Cucamonga. There, he didn't miss a beat, posting a 2.14 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 80/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.1 innings. Up at AA Tulsa well shy of his 22nd birthday, he had a 2.75 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 41/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings. Gray is exceptionally athletic and we already knew he had solid stuff, but he sharpened everything this year while greatly improving his command and turning himself into the complete package as a potential #1 or #2 starter. Still a few months away from turning 22, Gray is progressing much more quickly than expected and could be next in the line of great Dodgers rookies.
Others: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (1-11, Orioles), SS Nico Hoerner (1-24, Cubs), LHP Shane McClanahan (1-31, Rays), LHP Kris Bubic (2-40, Royals), RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (2-48, Mets)
Stock Down
1-23: C Anthony Seigler (Cartersville [GA] HS -> New York Yankees)
0 HR, .175/.328/.206, 1 SB, 28/20 K/BB, 74 wRC+ at Class A
I wouldn't go calling Seigler a bust right away, but his lost 2019 season certainly didn't go as planned. After beginning the season in extended spring training, he debuted with Class A Charleston in June, and picked up multiple hits in three of his first six games, but he slumped hard over the next 24 and was slashing just .175/.328/.206 when a July cross-up with the pitcher ended his season with him taking a fastball of the knee. In his limited game action, Seigler showed strong plate discipline and feel for catching, but he showed virtually no impact with the bat. That's especially concerning given that his strong plate discipline proved that he wasn't exactly overmatched, so if Seigler doesn't start showing some authority at the plate in 2020, he's likely destined for back-up duty in the majors.
1-27: RHP Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island [FL] HS -> Washington Nationals)
1-1, 7.52 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 19/14 K/BB in 20.1 IP at complex level
The Nationals signed Denaburg to an over-slot $3 million deal knowing that he was dealing with biceps issues, hoping he'd be healthy and ready to be turned loose in 2019. Unfortunately, those biceps problems continued over into 2019, holding him out of game action until June. When he did finally get on the mound in the complex-level Gulf Coast League, he wasn't nearly as polished as advertised, posting a 7.52 ERA and walking 14 batters in 20.1 innings across seven appearances. His control regressed and his stuff flattened out, making 2019 a lost season in terms of his development. As a high school draftee, Denaburg only turned 20 in August, but he'll have a lot to prove in 2020, starting with getting healthy.
CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest -> St. Louis Cardinals)
1-7, 6.44 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 36/35 K/BB in 65.2 IP at High A
It's a good thing that Cardinals' 2018 first rounder Nolan Gorman had a strong year, because it's gone just about as poorly as possible for competitive balance pick Griffin Roberts. Two positive tests for marijuana meant that he got slapped with a 50 game suspension to start the 2019 season, so he didn't make it into game action until June. Once he got on the mound for High A Palm Beach, he wasn't nearly as effective as advertised, walking nearly as many batters as he struck out while allowing opponents to hit over .300 against him in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. While he wasn't necessarily known for his command at Wake Forest, it wasn't a weak spot, either, but it certainly was in 2019 when he walked 35 batters and hit 17 in 65.2 innings. His lethal fastball/slider combination, which he certainly was known for in college, played down in the FSL and he didn't miss nearly as many bats as hoped as he consistently fell into hitters' counts. Roberts has always pitched better out of the bullpen and it looks like that will be his best option going forward, where he can hopefully get back on track.
Others: OF Connor Scott (1-13, Marlins), RHP Cole Winn (1-15, Rangers), OF Jake McCarthy (CBA-39, Diamondbacks), RHP Owen White (2-55, Rangers), RHP Jayson Schroeder (2-66, Astros)
All of that said about the 2016 draft, the first full season very important, and I'm ready to dive into the 2018 draftees and where they stand today at the end of the 2019 season. As a whole, this draft class is proving to be particularly strong as a lot of players have over-performed and very few have seriously under-performed.
The Top Five Picks
1-1: RHP Casey Mize (Auburn -> Detroit Tigers). Stock ticking up – cautiously
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP at High A and AA
It's been a roller coaster ride for Mize so far, as a lot happened in his first full season. He had some minor durability questions as an underclassman at Auburn, though he mostly alleviated them as a junior but was still held to just 13.2 innings in his pro debut in 2018 after a long season in the SEC. The Tigers turned him loose at High A Lakeland in 2019, and he quickly rewarded them with four exceptional starts, so he was promoted to AA Erie and threw a no-hitter in his first start at the level. As of June 13th, he had a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, but a minor shoulder injury shut him down that day and the entire state of Michigan held its breath. Fortunately, he returned in July, but he was knocked around a bit and had a 6.61 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 30/11 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 31.1 innings before being shut down. The Tigers maintain that he was healthy and that they felt he had accomplished everything he needed to in 2019 and that they were just monitoring his workload, but shoulder injuries are very scary and, at their worst, can end careers. In all, I'd take Mize's 2019 season as a success in that he proved he could dominate the upper minors in just his first full season, but I'm only cautiously optimistic because of the shoulder issue.
1-2: C Joey Bart (Georgia Tech -> San Francisco Giants). Stock holding
16 HR, .278/.328/.495, 5 SB, 71/21 K/BB, 128 wRC+ in 79 games at High A and AA
Aside from a broken left hand that kept him out of action from mid April until early June, Bart neither exceeded nor fell short of expectations in 2019. The 2018 second overall pick out of Georgia Tech began the season at High A San Jose, completely skipping Class A after spending most of his 2018 pro debut at short season Salem-Keizer, and he slashed .265/.315/.479 with 12 home runs and a 50/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games around that broken hand. Promoted to AA Richmond towards the end of the season, Bart held up well at the advanced level and slashed .316/.368/.544 with four home runs and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games, giving him 16 home runs and a .278/.328/.495 line on the abbreviated year. Bart showed his light-tower power throughout the season, though he didn't get to it quite consistently enough to warrant bumping his already valuable stock up further. Not known for strong plate discipline in college, his approach held up against advanced pitching and looks like it won't be a problem. Bart remains on track to take over the starting catching job from Buster Posey sometime in the next few seasons.
1-3: 3B Alec Bohm (Wichita State -> Philadelphia Phillies). Stock ticking up
21 HR, .305/.378/.518, 6 SB, 73/57 K/BB, 160 wRC+ in 125 games at Class A, High A, and AA
Like Bart, Alec Bohm was known in college for his prodigious raw power. The Phillies weren't quite as aggressive with the Wichita State product, starting him at Class A Lakewood, and he proved quickly that he didn't belong by slashing .367/.441/.595 with three home runs in 22 games, earning a promotion to High A Clearwater. Despite the pitcher-friendly environment, he still slashed .329/.395/.506 with four home runs and a 21/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. He earned a promotion to AA Reading, though at this point, he had hit "just" seven home runs in 62 games – not a bad number, especially considering his high on-base percentage, but you'd hope for more out of your star third overall pick who was known for his power. In hitter-friendly Reading, that power finally showed up and he slashed .269/.344/.500 with 14 home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games to close out the year. Together, that meant 21 home runs and a .305/.378/.518 line in his first full season, showing a potent all-around bat that should be major league ready in 2020. With the juiced balls in AAA and the majors, he should have no problem getting to his power up there and his strong plate discipline will help him be a true middle of the order threat.
1-4: SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State -> Chicago White Sox). Stock ticking up
4 HR, .311/.377/.414, 35 SB, 16/44 K/BB, 125 wRC+ in 120 games at High A, AA, and AAA
While Bohm started in Class A, Madrigal joined Mize and Bart with that aggressive assignment to High A, in this case Winston-Salem, and he responded by slashing .272/.346/.377 with two home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 6/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Those weren't the flashiest numbers, but Madrigal is listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, so it was a big step towards proving he could hit pro pitching with authority. Called up to AA Birmingham, he improved to .341/.400/.451 with one home run, 14 stolen bases, and a 5/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games, earning yet another promotion up to AAA Charlotte barely a year after he was drafted. A .331/.398/.424 with a home run, four stolen bases, and a 5/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games closed out his season, and he finished at .309/.371/.398 with 35 stolen bases and just 16 strikeouts in 120 games, good for a 3% strikeout rate. The scouting report today stands exactly the same as it did last year when he was drafted, but now not only does he make the easiest contact in minor league baseball while stealing plenty of bases, he can hit for *some* moderate power as well with 27 doubles, five triples, and four home runs this year. Now a second baseman, where he fits better, he'll match up well with Tim Anderson when he reaches the majors in 2020, likely shortly after his 23rd birthday.
1-5: 3B Jonathan India (Florida -> Cincinnati Reds). Stock down a tick
11 HR, .259/.365/.402, 11 SB, 110/59 K/BB, 129 wRC+ in 121 games at High A and AA
Jonathan India's massive offensive outburst as a junior at Florida in 2018 propelled him into the first round, where I ranked him twelfth on my personal list and where the Reds drafted him with the fifth overall pick. As his first full season comes to a close, I'm feeling pretty good about that #12 ranking and my feeling that #5 was a bit too high seems to be reaffirmed. That said, while India failed to live up to expectations in 2019, I wouldn't call this year a full-on disappointment given the pitcher-friendly contexts he played in. India started off at High A Daytona Beach, where he slashed a rather pedestrian .256/.346/.410 with eight home runs and an 84/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games. Promoted up to AA Chattanooga in July, he finished off the season by slashing .270/.414/.378 with three home runs and a 26/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games, giving him eleven home runs and a .259/.365/.402 line for the year. India showed strong plate discipline to go with average power and contact ability, and though the power didn't really carry over to AA, he remains a highly regarded prospect who should be an all-around contributor at the major league level. As I said with Bohm, the juiced balls at AAA and the majors should help him tap into that power a bit more, and he could be a solid #5 hitter with the Reds in the near future. I just don't see him as a future star.
Stock Way Up
1-6: OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West (WI) HS -> New York Mets -> Seattle Mariners)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 111/50 K/BB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games at Class A, High A, and AA
If we were to re-do the 2018 Draft this winter, Casey Mize would probably still go first overall, but Jarred Kelenic would have a real shot at going second after after his monster first full season left the Mets regretting trading him to the Mariners in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal. Like most advanced high school bats, Kelenic started the season in Class A with West Virginia, but he only lasted 50 games after he slashed .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs and a 45/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to High A Modesto, he kept on hitting against advanced competition to the tune of a .290/.353/.485 line, six home runs, and a 49/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. In August, the Mariners decided to turn him loose up at AA Arkansas, where he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six more home runs and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games against extremely advanced pitching. We all knew he was advanced for a high schooler, but even then, a 20-20 season and a .291/.364/.540 line while reaching AA is extremely impressive. Unlike most high school draftees, Kelenic is on the fast track to the majors, and he could be a productive, top of the lineup hitter in the Mariners' lineup sooner rather than later.
1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson -> Seattle Mariners)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Well, what can you say, the 2018 Draft has been good to the Seattle Mariners. Not only has Jarred Kelenic established himself as one of the top prospects in baseball, Logan Gilbert has bumped his name among the best pitching prospects as well. After holding him out of game action in 2018 following a long season with Stetson, the Mariners started him off slowly with a relatively conservative assignment to Class A West Virginia, where he posted a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 36/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings before his promotion drew a collective sigh of relief across South Atlantic League lineups. Up at High A Modesto, his opponents didn't fare much better, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings, forcing another promotion. Up at AA Arkansas by mid-July, he had a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over nine starts to finish off one of the finest pitching seasons in the minors this year. He entered the year with good, not great, stuff across the board, but it all played up exceptionally well as he missed bats left and right while maintaining the above average command that helped him go in the first round. Viewed as a potential #2 or #3 starter at draft time, Gilbert looks like he could be a true ace in the near future.
1-28: OF Seth Beer (Clemson -> Houston Astros -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
26 HR, .289/.388/.516, 0 SB, 113/46 K/BB, 155 wRC+ at High A and AA
At Clemson, Seth Beer put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers against strong ACC pitching, but his pronounced history of struggling with wood bats against top competition left teams wondering what his bat would look like in pro ball. Combine that with little to no defensive value and Beer was an enigmatic prospect to the fullest extent. He slashed .304/.389/.496 and reached Class A in his 67 game pro debut in 2018 after going to the Astros in the back of the first round, but his monster 2019 season got rid of any concerns that his bat would play up. After slashing .328/.414/.602 with nine home runs in 35 games at High A Fayetteville, he was quickly promoted to AA Corpus Christi, where he slashed .299/.407/.543 over 63 games before slumping to .205/.297/.318 after being traded to the Diamondbacks. Beer's big production proves he's much closer to the hitter he was at Clemson rather than the one he was over the summers, and this Seth Beer could have been a top ten pick with plate discipline, power, and the ability to get to it. He still won't provide any defensive value, but his bat will slot right into the middle of the Arizona lineup.
2-63: OF Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel [IL] HS -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
10 HR, .300/.379/.450, 15 SB, 105/52 K/BB, 140 wRC+ at Class A and High A
Thomas' numbers don't quite pop off the page like some of the names above him, but for a second rounder that was pegged as a fringy starter/possible fourth outfielder, he's certainly exceeded expectations by a long shot. Thomas started off at Class A Kane County and raked to the tune of a .312/.393/.479 line, eight home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 72/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games in the pitcher-friendly league. Aggressively promoted up to High A Visalia just a few months after his 19th birthday, he slashed a respectable .255/.327/.340 with a pair of home runs and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games against advanced competition. We all knew that Thomas had an advanced feel for the game, but we questioned his tools. He showed that strong plate discipline and defense this year, but he also proved he could hit for impact, and that could be the difference between him developing into a fourth outfielder and a legitimate, dynamic, every day contributor.
CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (Le Moyne -> Cincinnati Reds -> Los Angeles Dodgers)
11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Just as the Mets probably regret trading Jarred Kelenic, the Reds probably regret dealing Josiah Gray in the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp deal. A shortstop when he first reached Division II Le Moyne College in Syracuse, New York, Gray transitioned to the mound and immediately showed a tremendous ceiling. A strong pro debut with Greeneville in the rookie level Appalachian League (2.58 ERA, 59/17 K/BB) in 2018 was an encouraging sign, but he proved in 2019 that he is much more advanced than originally anticipated and that he's flying towards that high ceiling. The Dodgers reasonably started him at Class A Great Lakes, but he put up a 1.93 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings and he was quickly bumped to High A Rancho Cucamonga. There, he didn't miss a beat, posting a 2.14 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 80/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.1 innings. Up at AA Tulsa well shy of his 22nd birthday, he had a 2.75 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 41/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings. Gray is exceptionally athletic and we already knew he had solid stuff, but he sharpened everything this year while greatly improving his command and turning himself into the complete package as a potential #1 or #2 starter. Still a few months away from turning 22, Gray is progressing much more quickly than expected and could be next in the line of great Dodgers rookies.
Others: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (1-11, Orioles), SS Nico Hoerner (1-24, Cubs), LHP Shane McClanahan (1-31, Rays), LHP Kris Bubic (2-40, Royals), RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (2-48, Mets)
Stock Down
1-23: C Anthony Seigler (Cartersville [GA] HS -> New York Yankees)
0 HR, .175/.328/.206, 1 SB, 28/20 K/BB, 74 wRC+ at Class A
I wouldn't go calling Seigler a bust right away, but his lost 2019 season certainly didn't go as planned. After beginning the season in extended spring training, he debuted with Class A Charleston in June, and picked up multiple hits in three of his first six games, but he slumped hard over the next 24 and was slashing just .175/.328/.206 when a July cross-up with the pitcher ended his season with him taking a fastball of the knee. In his limited game action, Seigler showed strong plate discipline and feel for catching, but he showed virtually no impact with the bat. That's especially concerning given that his strong plate discipline proved that he wasn't exactly overmatched, so if Seigler doesn't start showing some authority at the plate in 2020, he's likely destined for back-up duty in the majors.
1-27: RHP Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island [FL] HS -> Washington Nationals)
1-1, 7.52 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 19/14 K/BB in 20.1 IP at complex level
The Nationals signed Denaburg to an over-slot $3 million deal knowing that he was dealing with biceps issues, hoping he'd be healthy and ready to be turned loose in 2019. Unfortunately, those biceps problems continued over into 2019, holding him out of game action until June. When he did finally get on the mound in the complex-level Gulf Coast League, he wasn't nearly as polished as advertised, posting a 7.52 ERA and walking 14 batters in 20.1 innings across seven appearances. His control regressed and his stuff flattened out, making 2019 a lost season in terms of his development. As a high school draftee, Denaburg only turned 20 in August, but he'll have a lot to prove in 2020, starting with getting healthy.
CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest -> St. Louis Cardinals)
1-7, 6.44 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 36/35 K/BB in 65.2 IP at High A
It's a good thing that Cardinals' 2018 first rounder Nolan Gorman had a strong year, because it's gone just about as poorly as possible for competitive balance pick Griffin Roberts. Two positive tests for marijuana meant that he got slapped with a 50 game suspension to start the 2019 season, so he didn't make it into game action until June. Once he got on the mound for High A Palm Beach, he wasn't nearly as effective as advertised, walking nearly as many batters as he struck out while allowing opponents to hit over .300 against him in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. While he wasn't necessarily known for his command at Wake Forest, it wasn't a weak spot, either, but it certainly was in 2019 when he walked 35 batters and hit 17 in 65.2 innings. His lethal fastball/slider combination, which he certainly was known for in college, played down in the FSL and he didn't miss nearly as many bats as hoped as he consistently fell into hitters' counts. Roberts has always pitched better out of the bullpen and it looks like that will be his best option going forward, where he can hopefully get back on track.
Others: OF Connor Scott (1-13, Marlins), RHP Cole Winn (1-15, Rangers), OF Jake McCarthy (CBA-39, Diamondbacks), RHP Owen White (2-55, Rangers), RHP Jayson Schroeder (2-66, Astros)
Sunday, September 8, 2019
2019 Minor League Awards
I put together some awards for the top minor leaguers in a few categories. These are strictly performance based and don't have anything to do with prospect status, though prospect status and being at a higher level would give some players the edge over others in close contests. Different minor leagues have very different run scoring environments, and those are very much factored into consideration. For example, the AAA Pacific Coast League is an extremely hitter-friendly environment, the AAA International League and High A California League are hitter-friendly as well, and leagues such as the AA Texas League, High A Florida State League, and the Class A Midwest League lean more pitcher-friendly.
Hitter of the Year
Winner: OF Luis Robert (White Sox High A, AA, and AAA, age 21-22)
32 HR, .328/.376/.624, 36 SB, 170 wRC+ in 122 games
In 2017, a 19 year old Braves prospect slashed .325/.374/.522 with 21 home runs and 44 stolen bases across the three highest minor league levels, then won the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year Award. The White Sox hope that 22 year old Luis Robert is halfway to following in Ronald Acuna's footsteps with his huge and eerily similar season across three levels. Robert, who was 21 at the beginning of the season, began at High A Winston-Salem but demolished Carolina League pitching to the tune of a .453/.512/.920 slash line and eight home runs over 19 games before being promoted to AA Birmingham. He continued to rake in the Southern League, hitting eight more home runs and slashing .314/.362/.518 across 56 games, then got promoted again to AAA Charlotte. The ball was flying in AAA this year and all power numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but a .297/.341/.634 with 16 home runs over 47 games is still extremely impressive for someone who started the season down in A ball. The Cuban outfielder is an exceptional athlete with the kind of power/speed combination teams covet, and by crushing 32 home runs in 2019, he proved that getting to that power is no problem whatsoever. He's an aggressive hitter who makes a lot of contact and therefore fails to draw a ton of walks, but because he still hit .328, his .376 on-base percentage remained strong. Eloy Jimenez was the White Sox' top outfield prospect a year ago but Robert has a very good chance to be the better player very soon.
Runner-Up: SS Gavin Lux (Dodgers AA and AAA, age 21)
26 HR, .347/.421/.607, 10 SB, 165 wRC+ in 113 games
A first round pick in 2016 out of a Wisconsin high school, Lux has gotten better and better the longer he has been in the Dodgers system. A mediocre 2017 at Class A Great Lakes translated into a very strong 2018 between High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa, and he returned to the level for 2019. Over 64 games, he slashed .313/.375/.521 with 13 home runs and seven stolen bases, so the Dodgers promoted him across the state to AAA Oklahoma City. The Pacific Coast League is an extremely offense-friendly environment, but even in that context, the numbers he put up in 49 games were ludicrous: 13 home runs, a .392/.478/.719 slash line, and a strong 42/33 strikeout to walk ratio despite being just 21 years old. Together, that meant he slashed .347/.421/.607 with 26 home runs over 113 games, all the while playing strong defense at shortstop and showing his speed on the bases. Lux has power, strong plate discipline, the ability to get on base, some speed, and strong infield defense, leaving very few holes in his game and he's already up in the major leagues contributing with the Dodgers. Unless he somehow reaches 130 at bats this September, he'll be a strong candidate for the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Award after Dodgers won it in both 2016 (Corey Seager) and 2017 (Cody Bellinger), followed by a very strong 2018 performance from Walker Buehler.
Honorable Mention: OF Jarred Kelenic (Mariners Class A, High A, and AA, age 19-20)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games
Jarred Kelenic's numbers might not be as eye popping as the other five players listed here, but he was also the only one who didn't get a turn through homer-happy AAA. Kelenic, the Mets' sixth overall pick out of a Wisconsin high school in 2018 who was traded to the Mariners in the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano deal, began the season with Class A West Virginia and quickly hit his way out by slashing .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs in 50 games in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. Bumped up to High A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League, he held his own against older competition by slashing .290/.353/.485 with six home runs and ten stolen bases in 46 games. A second promotion brought him to AA Arkansas less than a month after his 20th birthday, and he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six home runs over 21 games against much older competition in the pitcher-friendly Texas League. Together, that gave him a 20-20 season, a strong .364 on-base percentage, and a .540 slugging percentage across three levels at a young age, adding in good defense in the outfield along the way. Had Kelenic had the chance to play at AAA Tacoma in the Pacific Coast League, his raw numbers may have rivaled those of Trent Grisham, listed right below in the "others" section.
Others
Brewers OF Trent Grisham (26 HR, .300/.407/.603, 12 SB, 166 wRC+ in 97 games, age 22)
Twins/Giants OF Jaylin Davis (35 HR, .306/.397/.590, 10 SB, 159 wRC+ in 126 games, age 24-25)
Padres 3B Ty France (27 HR, .399/.477/.770, 1 SB, 196 wRC+ in 76 games, age 24-25)
Pitcher of the Year
Winner: RHP Logan Gilbert (Mariners Class A, High A, and AA, age 21-22)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP
Drafted in the first round out of Stetson in 2018, Gilbert didn't pitch professionally that year and first took the mound in the Mariners organization in April. At the close of the season, it's safe to say that it went pretty well. Gilbert started out at Class A West Virginia but lasted just five starts there with a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 35/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 22.2 innings before being promoted to High A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League. Nobody told him that it was an offense-heavy environment, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings. Promoted again to AA Arkansas, he posted a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings, bringing him to 165 strikeouts, a 2.13 ERA, and a sub-1.00 WHIP over 26 starts, half of which came in the California League. His best start of the season came on May 19th, when he shut down a strong Rancho Cucamonga lineup (Dodgers High A) over seven innings, allowing two hits and no walks while striking out eleven. In all, he allowed no more than one earned run in 18 of his 26 starts, and he struck out at least five batters in 21 of 26. Gilbert should be up in the majors at some point in 2020 as a potential future ace.
Runner-Up: RHP James Marvel (Pirates AA and AAA, age 25)
16-5, 2.94 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 136/46 K/BB in 162.1 IP
Marvel lacks the flash of other prospects on this list, and as a 25 year old former 36th round draft pick out of Duke, he still doesn't project to be much more than a #4 or #5 starter. Still, that doesn't take away from the fantastic season he had in 2019. Beginning the year with AA Altoona, he went 9-5 with a 3.10 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an 83/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings – solid numbers, but nothing that rivals the other guys on this list. However, he was promoted to AAA Indianapolis in July to pitch in the very hitter-friendly International League, and he just kicked it into another gear by going 7-0 with a 2.67 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings, helping him lead all minor leaguers with 16 wins and finish fifth with 162.1 innings pitched. The numbers aren't flashy, but the huge body of work combined with the exceptional turn through the International League where very few other pitchers seemed to be able to find their groove makes his final product as impressive as anybody's in Minor League Baseball. Marvel's most impressive start came on July 5th, when in his first game in the International League launching pad, he tossed seven shutout innings on three hits, no walks, and six strikeouts against Toledo (Tigers AAA). He also had Syracuse's (Mets AAA) number, tossing back to back starts of six shutout innings on a combined two hits and sixteen strikeouts (and five walks) on July 18th and 24th.
Honorable Mention: LHP MacKenzie Gore (Padres High A and AA, age 20)
9-2, 1.69 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 135/28 K/BB in 101 IP
MLB Pipeline named MacKenzie Gore their minor league pitcher of the year, and while I can't quite get behind that due to his smaller body of work (Logan Gilbert threw 34 more innings and James Marvel through 61.1 more), there's no denying that Gore was nothing short of brilliant in 2019. The third overall pick of the 2017 draft out of a small town North Carolina high school, Gore showed flashes of what was to come with an up and down 2018 at Class A Fort Wayne (4.45 ERA, 74/18 K/BB), but 2019 was a completely different story altogether. Starting the year at High A Lake Elsinore in the hitter-friendly California League, Gore was as close to untouchable as it gets as he posted a 1.02 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 110/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, totaling just 56 non-error baserunners in 15 starts. He was promoted to AA Amarillo less than six months after his 20th birthday and pitched very well again, though his 4.15 ERA was skewed by his July 19th start against Northwest Arkansas (Royals AA) where he allowed seven earned runs. If you take out that one start, Gore's final ERA and WHIP would be 1.11 and 0.76, respectively, over 97 innings. That's insane. During his time in Lake Elsinore, he allowed more than one run in only one of his 15 starts, and even then he only let two cross the plate in six innings. His last two starts at the level were his best, as he combined for 13.2 shutout innings on six hits, four walks, and one hit batsman while striking out 18, ironically with both of those starts coming against Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers High A), the same team which touched him up for two runs earlier in the season and which Logan Gilbert had his best start against. Gore will probably return to Amarillo in 2020 but could pitch his way to the majors before the season is over.
Others
Dodgers RHP Josiah Gray (11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP, age 21)
Astros RHP Cristian Javier (8-3, 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 170/59 K/BB in 113.2, age 22)
Rays RHP Joe Ryan (9-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 183/27 K/BB in 123.2 IP, age 22-23)
Other Notable Seasons
RHP Casey Mize (Tigers High A and AA, age 21-22)
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP
As of June 13th, Mize looked like a lock to not only make the Pitcher of the Year list, but win it handily. The 2018 first overall pick out of Auburn had been absolutely untouchable to that point, with a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings across two levels. On April 29th, his first start at AA Erie less than a year after being drafted, he tossed a no-hitter with seven strikeouts against Altoona (Pirates AA). However, on June 13th, he went down with shoulder issues that kept him out for a month, and he allowed five or more earned runs in three of his first five starts back with AA Erie after two rehab starts at High A Lakeland. Hopefully, Mize puts the shoulder issue behind him and gets back on track in 2020.
RHP James Karinchak (Indians complex, AA, and AAA, age 23)
1-1, 2.67 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 74/17 K/BB in 30.1 IP
A 2.67 ERA over 30 innings isn't going to land you on the short list for pitcher of the year, but Karinchak's season was pretty incredible nonetheless. In all, he struck out 74 of the 125 batters he faced, or 59.2%, which is the best number I've ever seen. Through two playoff games, he's struck out seven of the twelve batter's he's faced, bringing up him up to 81 strikeouts over 137 batters. He struggles with his command and won't be a major league closer immediately, but he misses bats like no other.
3B Ty France (Padres AAA, age 24-25) and 1B Kevin Cron (Diamondbacks AAA, age 26)
Ty France: 27 HR, .399/.477/.770, 1 SB, 196 wRC+ in 76 games
Kevin Cron: 39 HR, .329/.446/.777, 1 SB, 181 wRC+ in 84 games
Of all the big numbers put up in the AAA Pacific Coast League, perhaps no two hitters were more impressive than El Paso's Ty France and Reno's Kevin Cron. France flirted with .400 while hitting for power throughout the season and finished at .399/.477/.770 with 27 home runs in 76 games, while Cron smashed 39 home runs in 84 games while slashing .329/.446/.777 along the way. France had back to back multi-homer games in April and he hit six home runs in a five game stretch in June. On July 25th, he had one of the better offensive performances of the season when he went 5-6 with a pair of home runs against Las Vegas (A's AAA). Meanwhile, Cron hit seven home runs in a six game stretch in May and blasted three home runs on August 13th against Oklahoma City (Dodgers AAA), and together with his five major league home runs, he's already hit 44 on the season despite missing a couple weeks in July.
Hitter of the Year
Winner: OF Luis Robert (White Sox High A, AA, and AAA, age 21-22)
32 HR, .328/.376/.624, 36 SB, 170 wRC+ in 122 games
In 2017, a 19 year old Braves prospect slashed .325/.374/.522 with 21 home runs and 44 stolen bases across the three highest minor league levels, then won the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year Award. The White Sox hope that 22 year old Luis Robert is halfway to following in Ronald Acuna's footsteps with his huge and eerily similar season across three levels. Robert, who was 21 at the beginning of the season, began at High A Winston-Salem but demolished Carolina League pitching to the tune of a .453/.512/.920 slash line and eight home runs over 19 games before being promoted to AA Birmingham. He continued to rake in the Southern League, hitting eight more home runs and slashing .314/.362/.518 across 56 games, then got promoted again to AAA Charlotte. The ball was flying in AAA this year and all power numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but a .297/.341/.634 with 16 home runs over 47 games is still extremely impressive for someone who started the season down in A ball. The Cuban outfielder is an exceptional athlete with the kind of power/speed combination teams covet, and by crushing 32 home runs in 2019, he proved that getting to that power is no problem whatsoever. He's an aggressive hitter who makes a lot of contact and therefore fails to draw a ton of walks, but because he still hit .328, his .376 on-base percentage remained strong. Eloy Jimenez was the White Sox' top outfield prospect a year ago but Robert has a very good chance to be the better player very soon.
Runner-Up: SS Gavin Lux (Dodgers AA and AAA, age 21)
26 HR, .347/.421/.607, 10 SB, 165 wRC+ in 113 games
A first round pick in 2016 out of a Wisconsin high school, Lux has gotten better and better the longer he has been in the Dodgers system. A mediocre 2017 at Class A Great Lakes translated into a very strong 2018 between High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa, and he returned to the level for 2019. Over 64 games, he slashed .313/.375/.521 with 13 home runs and seven stolen bases, so the Dodgers promoted him across the state to AAA Oklahoma City. The Pacific Coast League is an extremely offense-friendly environment, but even in that context, the numbers he put up in 49 games were ludicrous: 13 home runs, a .392/.478/.719 slash line, and a strong 42/33 strikeout to walk ratio despite being just 21 years old. Together, that meant he slashed .347/.421/.607 with 26 home runs over 113 games, all the while playing strong defense at shortstop and showing his speed on the bases. Lux has power, strong plate discipline, the ability to get on base, some speed, and strong infield defense, leaving very few holes in his game and he's already up in the major leagues contributing with the Dodgers. Unless he somehow reaches 130 at bats this September, he'll be a strong candidate for the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Award after Dodgers won it in both 2016 (Corey Seager) and 2017 (Cody Bellinger), followed by a very strong 2018 performance from Walker Buehler.
Honorable Mention: OF Jarred Kelenic (Mariners Class A, High A, and AA, age 19-20)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games
Jarred Kelenic's numbers might not be as eye popping as the other five players listed here, but he was also the only one who didn't get a turn through homer-happy AAA. Kelenic, the Mets' sixth overall pick out of a Wisconsin high school in 2018 who was traded to the Mariners in the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano deal, began the season with Class A West Virginia and quickly hit his way out by slashing .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs in 50 games in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. Bumped up to High A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League, he held his own against older competition by slashing .290/.353/.485 with six home runs and ten stolen bases in 46 games. A second promotion brought him to AA Arkansas less than a month after his 20th birthday, and he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six home runs over 21 games against much older competition in the pitcher-friendly Texas League. Together, that gave him a 20-20 season, a strong .364 on-base percentage, and a .540 slugging percentage across three levels at a young age, adding in good defense in the outfield along the way. Had Kelenic had the chance to play at AAA Tacoma in the Pacific Coast League, his raw numbers may have rivaled those of Trent Grisham, listed right below in the "others" section.
Others
Brewers OF Trent Grisham (26 HR, .300/.407/.603, 12 SB, 166 wRC+ in 97 games, age 22)
Twins/Giants OF Jaylin Davis (35 HR, .306/.397/.590, 10 SB, 159 wRC+ in 126 games, age 24-25)
Padres 3B Ty France (27 HR, .399/.477/.770, 1 SB, 196 wRC+ in 76 games, age 24-25)
Pitcher of the Year
Winner: RHP Logan Gilbert (Mariners Class A, High A, and AA, age 21-22)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP
Drafted in the first round out of Stetson in 2018, Gilbert didn't pitch professionally that year and first took the mound in the Mariners organization in April. At the close of the season, it's safe to say that it went pretty well. Gilbert started out at Class A West Virginia but lasted just five starts there with a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 35/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 22.2 innings before being promoted to High A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League. Nobody told him that it was an offense-heavy environment, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings. Promoted again to AA Arkansas, he posted a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings, bringing him to 165 strikeouts, a 2.13 ERA, and a sub-1.00 WHIP over 26 starts, half of which came in the California League. His best start of the season came on May 19th, when he shut down a strong Rancho Cucamonga lineup (Dodgers High A) over seven innings, allowing two hits and no walks while striking out eleven. In all, he allowed no more than one earned run in 18 of his 26 starts, and he struck out at least five batters in 21 of 26. Gilbert should be up in the majors at some point in 2020 as a potential future ace.
Runner-Up: RHP James Marvel (Pirates AA and AAA, age 25)
16-5, 2.94 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 136/46 K/BB in 162.1 IP
Marvel lacks the flash of other prospects on this list, and as a 25 year old former 36th round draft pick out of Duke, he still doesn't project to be much more than a #4 or #5 starter. Still, that doesn't take away from the fantastic season he had in 2019. Beginning the year with AA Altoona, he went 9-5 with a 3.10 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an 83/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings – solid numbers, but nothing that rivals the other guys on this list. However, he was promoted to AAA Indianapolis in July to pitch in the very hitter-friendly International League, and he just kicked it into another gear by going 7-0 with a 2.67 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings, helping him lead all minor leaguers with 16 wins and finish fifth with 162.1 innings pitched. The numbers aren't flashy, but the huge body of work combined with the exceptional turn through the International League where very few other pitchers seemed to be able to find their groove makes his final product as impressive as anybody's in Minor League Baseball. Marvel's most impressive start came on July 5th, when in his first game in the International League launching pad, he tossed seven shutout innings on three hits, no walks, and six strikeouts against Toledo (Tigers AAA). He also had Syracuse's (Mets AAA) number, tossing back to back starts of six shutout innings on a combined two hits and sixteen strikeouts (and five walks) on July 18th and 24th.
Honorable Mention: LHP MacKenzie Gore (Padres High A and AA, age 20)
9-2, 1.69 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 135/28 K/BB in 101 IP
MLB Pipeline named MacKenzie Gore their minor league pitcher of the year, and while I can't quite get behind that due to his smaller body of work (Logan Gilbert threw 34 more innings and James Marvel through 61.1 more), there's no denying that Gore was nothing short of brilliant in 2019. The third overall pick of the 2017 draft out of a small town North Carolina high school, Gore showed flashes of what was to come with an up and down 2018 at Class A Fort Wayne (4.45 ERA, 74/18 K/BB), but 2019 was a completely different story altogether. Starting the year at High A Lake Elsinore in the hitter-friendly California League, Gore was as close to untouchable as it gets as he posted a 1.02 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 110/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, totaling just 56 non-error baserunners in 15 starts. He was promoted to AA Amarillo less than six months after his 20th birthday and pitched very well again, though his 4.15 ERA was skewed by his July 19th start against Northwest Arkansas (Royals AA) where he allowed seven earned runs. If you take out that one start, Gore's final ERA and WHIP would be 1.11 and 0.76, respectively, over 97 innings. That's insane. During his time in Lake Elsinore, he allowed more than one run in only one of his 15 starts, and even then he only let two cross the plate in six innings. His last two starts at the level were his best, as he combined for 13.2 shutout innings on six hits, four walks, and one hit batsman while striking out 18, ironically with both of those starts coming against Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers High A), the same team which touched him up for two runs earlier in the season and which Logan Gilbert had his best start against. Gore will probably return to Amarillo in 2020 but could pitch his way to the majors before the season is over.
Others
Dodgers RHP Josiah Gray (11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP, age 21)
Astros RHP Cristian Javier (8-3, 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 170/59 K/BB in 113.2, age 22)
Rays RHP Joe Ryan (9-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 183/27 K/BB in 123.2 IP, age 22-23)
Other Notable Seasons
RHP Casey Mize (Tigers High A and AA, age 21-22)
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP
As of June 13th, Mize looked like a lock to not only make the Pitcher of the Year list, but win it handily. The 2018 first overall pick out of Auburn had been absolutely untouchable to that point, with a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings across two levels. On April 29th, his first start at AA Erie less than a year after being drafted, he tossed a no-hitter with seven strikeouts against Altoona (Pirates AA). However, on June 13th, he went down with shoulder issues that kept him out for a month, and he allowed five or more earned runs in three of his first five starts back with AA Erie after two rehab starts at High A Lakeland. Hopefully, Mize puts the shoulder issue behind him and gets back on track in 2020.
RHP James Karinchak (Indians complex, AA, and AAA, age 23)
1-1, 2.67 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 74/17 K/BB in 30.1 IP
A 2.67 ERA over 30 innings isn't going to land you on the short list for pitcher of the year, but Karinchak's season was pretty incredible nonetheless. In all, he struck out 74 of the 125 batters he faced, or 59.2%, which is the best number I've ever seen. Through two playoff games, he's struck out seven of the twelve batter's he's faced, bringing up him up to 81 strikeouts over 137 batters. He struggles with his command and won't be a major league closer immediately, but he misses bats like no other.
3B Ty France (Padres AAA, age 24-25) and 1B Kevin Cron (Diamondbacks AAA, age 26)
Ty France: 27 HR, .399/.477/.770, 1 SB, 196 wRC+ in 76 games
Kevin Cron: 39 HR, .329/.446/.777, 1 SB, 181 wRC+ in 84 games
Of all the big numbers put up in the AAA Pacific Coast League, perhaps no two hitters were more impressive than El Paso's Ty France and Reno's Kevin Cron. France flirted with .400 while hitting for power throughout the season and finished at .399/.477/.770 with 27 home runs in 76 games, while Cron smashed 39 home runs in 84 games while slashing .329/.446/.777 along the way. France had back to back multi-homer games in April and he hit six home runs in a five game stretch in June. On July 25th, he had one of the better offensive performances of the season when he went 5-6 with a pair of home runs against Las Vegas (A's AAA). Meanwhile, Cron hit seven home runs in a six game stretch in May and blasted three home runs on August 13th against Oklahoma City (Dodgers AAA), and together with his five major league home runs, he's already hit 44 on the season despite missing a couple weeks in July.
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Reviewing the Seattle Mariners Farm System
Dealin' Jerry DiPoto has taken a sledgehammer to this farm system, sending away prospects like Luiz Gohara, Mallex Smith, Nick Neidert, Ryan Yarbrough, Emilio Pagan, Andrew Moore, Tyler O'Neill, Boog Powell, Brayan Hernandez, Pablo Lopez, Thomas Burrows, and Juan Then just to name a few of the trades since the start of 2017. What's left is a very thin system with some high-ceiling talent at the top of the prospect charts and a smattering of relief prospects and recent draftees towards the bottom. The Mariners' player development isn't the greatest, which lowers the floors of many prospects, and with the team missing the playoffs again in 2018, the team isn't in a great spot. For now, the balance leans towards hitting, with many high ceiling hitters at the lower levels and quite a few utility prospects closer to the majors. Below are the system's bright spots.
Update: Mariners have since acquired Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson, Dom Thompson-Williams, Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Gerson Bautista, and Jake Fraley
Affiliates: AAA Tacoma Rainiers, AA Arkansas Travelers, High A Modesto Nuts, Class A Clinton LumberKings*, Short Season Everett AquaSox, complex level AZL and DSL Mariners
*Class A Affiliate will move from Clinton, IA to Charleston, WV in 2019
The Headliner: OF Kyle Lewis
Kyle Lewis was drafted eleventh overall out of Mercer in 2016, though many people - myself included - saw this as a steal for the Mariners, who seemed to be getting a top ten or even top five talent. However, after a strong start to his pro career (.299/.385/.530 in 30 games at Short Season Everett in 2016), he blew out his knee in a home plate collision and it seems he is still feeling the effects. 2017 (.257/.329/.412) and 2018 (.244/.306/.405) have both been mediocre as he still doesn't appear fully healthy, and he turned 23 in July. Now, let's get to the good news. He is still extremely talented, and pre-injury he showed plus power, plus speed, a plus arm, and quick enough hands to hit for a high average. He still shows the quick hands and gets to his power occasionally (nine home runs and 26 doubles this year), and the lack of production really isn't his fault. His hands get through the zone so quickly that with his 6'4" frame, you can't give up on him yet. It's easy to project a healthy Lewis having an Eloy Jimenez-type breakout season in 2019, and if it all breaks right, I think he could hit 20-30 home runs per season in the majors with on-base percentages in the .350 range and good defense in the outfield.
Advanced Utility Prospects: 1B Evan White, OF Braden Bishop, 3B Joe Rizzo, SS Donnie Walton, OF Eric Filia, OF Chuck Taylor
While Kyle Lewis looks to be the next star in Seattle, the guys in this section of the list, save for White, don't project to be much more than bench assets. Fortunately for the Mariners, there are quite a few of them, meaning that one could end up exceeding expectations and contributing in a significant way. We'll start with Evan White, easily the second best position player prospect in the system. A high floor, low ceiling player when he was drafted 17th overall out of Kentucky in 2017, he has performed exactly to expectations, slashing .300/.371/.453 with eleven home runs and a 108/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games this year, 120 of which came at High A Modesto. As with any California League statistics, they must be taken with a grain of salt, but these pretty much tell the story: a high on-base percentage and enough power to make pitchers respect him. While the power might be a little light for a first baseman who is typically expected to provide the thump, he makes up for it with exceptional defense (not common among first basemen) and he could be shifted to the outfield if needed. Expect a productive bat that may not be able to serve in the middle of a lineup but one that could slot nicely as a #6 hitter. 25 year old outfielder Braden Bishop is already a fan favorite, and for good reason. He established a charity called 4MOM in honor of his mother, who was diagnosed with Alzheimers, and he is extremely active in his philanthropic endeavor. On the baseball side, he slashed .284/.361/.412 with eight home runs and a 68/37 strikeout to walk ratio at AA Arkansas this year, showing serviceability in all aspects of offense. His glove is considered excellent in the outfield, and because he has shown some competency at the plate, he should have little trouble reaching the majors. However, since he doesn't offer much power and he's only a marginally productive on-base threat, I think it's unlikely that he ends up a leadoff hitter, but he still could be a nice bottom of the order piece. Most likely, he's a productive fourth outfielder. 20 year old infielder Joe Rizzo has seen his bat stagnate as he has moved up through the minors, slashing .241/.303/.321 with four home runs and a 108/40 strikeout to walk ratio even at hitter-friendly Modesto, and it's looking like he'll need to make some adjustments ahead of the 2019 season if he wants to remain a notable prospect. His defense is so-so, but fortunately, time is on his side and he is universally noted for his work ethic, which could help him tap the considerable raw power I still believe he possesses. He just needs to get more consistent with his approach. 24 year old infielder Donnie Walton hit much better at Modesto (.309/.402/.433) than he did after his promotion to Arkansas (.236/.325/.327), showing a classic utility projection with his defense, on-base ability, and lack of power. His solid approach (71/51 K/BB) gives him a high floor, and he'll likely be in Seattle by the end of 2019. 26 year old outfielder Eric Filia is an interesting prospect in that he was nearly 24 when he was drafted out of UCLA in 2016, has been suspended twice for drugs of abuse, and that his plate discipline is excellent despite a so-so bat. At Arkansas this year, he slashed .274/.371/.348 with just a pair of home runs, but his 30/44 strikeout to walk ratio shows great patience (12.8% walk rate) as well as great bat to ball skills (8.7% strikeout rate). That bodes well for him to be able to translate his hitting up to the majors, though his lack of power and ability to hit the ball with much authority, combined with his age at this point, will likely render him to a fourth or fifth outfielder role. Lastly, 25 year old outfielder Chuck Taylor has a similar current on-field profile to Filia, slashing .297/.377/.376 with three home runs and a nice 79/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at Arkansas. As with Filia, there's not much power, but he has shown an advanced approach at the upper levels which will help him get to the majors.
Starting Pitching Options: Logan Gilbert, Sam Carlson, Max Povse, Rob Whalen
There isn't much pitching talent in the system, and the group is even thinner when it comes to starting pitchers. In fact, with Michigan natives Anthony Misiewicz (5.24 ERA, 95/29 K/BB at mostly AA) and Oliver Jaskie (6.60 ERA, 77/49 K/BB at Class A) having rough seasons, the four listed in this section are the only ones with any real shot at being difference-making starting pitchers. The system's top pitching prospect, 2018 first rounder (14th overall) Logan Gilbert, has not thrown a professional pitch yet. He dominated at Stetson this year (11-2, 2.72 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 163/25 K/BB in 112 IP), showing an advanced four pitch arsenal which, when combined with his 6'6" frame, gives him a very high ceiling. However, his stuff was somewhat inconsistent in 2018, giving him some risk as a pitcher who might not be able to make his stuff translate upwards. We'll see if the Seattle development program makes an ace out of Gilbert or ends up with a relief arm. Sam Carlson, who was drafted in the second round (55th overall) out of a Minnesota high school in 2017 but who signed for first round money, is a long way off. The 19 year old underwent Tommy John surgery in July, meaning he probably won't pitch at all in 2019. When healthy, the 6'4" righty has ace-like stuff, throwing in the mid 90's and adding a wicked slider/changeup combination while controlling it all well for a teenager. Age is on his side, but we'll just have to play the wait and see game to find out if he becomes the next Felix Hernandez. 25 year old Max Povse came over in a trade from the Braves after the 2016 season, and while he seems to have AA down, he has struggled to perform in AAA. Between the 2017 and 2018 seasons, both of which were split between AA Arkansas and AAA Tacoma, he is 7-5 with a 3.43 ERA and a 92/33 strikeout to walk ratio at Arkansas but 2-10 with an 8.17 ERA and a 74/40 strikeout to walk ratio at Tacoma. The 6'8" righty has average stuff that plays up due to his height, but it looks like AAA hitting has figured him out and he'll need his stuff to take one more step forward to be successful in the majors. He has a #4/#5 starter ceiling but if converted to relief, he can probably be a solid bullpen piece right now. 24 year old Rob Whalen has been a prospect for a long time, having been drafted in 2012 out of high school in Florida. He dominated the low minors but has struggled in the upper minors, mixing his average stuff and getting mediocre results. He posted a 5.16 ERA and a 92/37 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA Tacoma this year, which isn't awful considering the context, and he really only needs to take one more step forward to be a useful #5 starter for the Mariners. More likely, he's a long reliever.
Bullpen Options: Matthew Festa, Wyatt Mills, Joey Gerber, Art Warren, Nick Rumbelow
Relief prospects tend to pop out of nowhere, either as converted starters or guys who just found something that clicked. The Mariners don't have many of these either, but they don't have much of anything and this spot isn't necessarily a weak one for them. Matthew Festa offers the best combination of major league readiness and upside, coming in with a pretty good fastball/slider combination backed up by a curveball and a changeup. He posted a 2.76 ERA and a nice 67/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 innings at AA Arkansas this year, reaching the majors for a few appearances with mixed results. The 25 year old has a decent shot of breaking camp with the Mariners next year, and if he doesn't he should be one of the first to be called up from the minors to do some middle relief work. 23 year old Wyatt Mills pitched very well at High A Modesto (1.91 ERA, 49/9 K/BB in 42.1 IP) but struggled with his promotion to Arkansas (10.13 ERA, 10/4 K/BB in 10.2 IP). He's a sidearming righty with a true fastball/slider combo, working more from a place of deception than of dominance. He hasn't proven that he can hold up against higher level hitting, but his upside is higher than Festa's. 21 year old Joey Gerber was just drafted in the eighth round out of Illinois this past June, but he has already made a name for himself in this system by posting a 2.10 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 43/11 strikeout to walk ratio over his first 25.2 innings in the minors, split between the short season Northwest League and Class A Clinton. He uses a very good, very deceptive fastball/slider combination to get outs, but with that deception comes some command problems which ultimately have not hampered him yet in the minors. Look for Gerber to be among the first 2018 draftees for any team to reach the majors. 25 year old Art Warren is a converted starter who battled shoulder issues in 2018, using his full, four pitch arsenal to rack up strikeouts but also struggling with command. He may have to drop a pitch going forward (probably his changeup), but getting healthy and throwing strikes will be his most important goal because he is clearly talented enough to pitch in the major leagues. 27 year old Nick Rumbelow makes this list really because of his proximity to the majors. He actually pitched for the Yankees in the majors as far back as 2015, but with 33.1 career major league innings he is still technically a prospect. He has mastered the minor leagues and has a 1.35 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 71/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings in AA and AAA over the last two seasons, so all he really needs is an opportunity. At 27, he's probably not getting any better.
Distant Offensive Wild Cards: OF Josh Stowers, C Cal Raleigh, OF Julio Rodriguez, SS Juan Querecuto, SS Noelvi Marte, OF Luis Liberato, OF Anthony Jimenez
The reasons behind the Mariners' lack of advanced prospects comes from a combination of trades and poor player development, which is why you see all these names here at the bottom, where the Mariners actually have some depth. I'll start with the two 2018 draftees from major ACC programs. I saw second rounder (54th overall) Josh Stowers play for Louisville this year, and he's a wiry outfielder with tons of speed, patience, and a bat that was picking up as the spring progressed. He hit .260/.380/.410 with 20 stolen bases in the short season Northwest League this year, and if he can keep his strikeouts down and recognize pitches well, he could be a leadoff man in Seattle. Third rounder (90th overall) Cal Raleigh comes from Florida State and is the team's best catching prospect, and his .288/.367/.534 line in 38 games in the Northwest League was very encouraging. He has a lot to prove against more advanced pitching and with his defense behind the plate, but not a lot of catchers can swing it and he can. The next two players, Julio Rodriguez and Juan Querecuto, played all of 2018 at just 17 years old down in the Dominican Summer League. Rodriguez hit .315/.404/.525 with ten stolen bases and a 40/30 strikeout to walk ratio while showing arguably the best upside in the entire system, while Querecuto hit .243/.331/.329 with a 54/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Rodriguez is an outfielder who obviously has a long, long way to go, but he's done everything asked of him so far and could be an impact player in Seattle four or five years down the road. Querecuto, meanwhile, is more known for his defense at shortstop and his bat will need to develop considerably if he wants to make it. The defense does give the bat plenty of time, though, and takes the pressure off of it as he moves up. Noelvi Marte, who just turned 17 a few weeks ago, might be the youngest player I write about in this series because of the Mariners' lack of depth. The shortstop has big time power that should grow as he adds loft, and as a shortstop the bat has time to develop. His defense doesn't quite match Querecuto's but the bat is better. Of course, he has not appeared in the minors yet so he is completely unproven. The last two guys in this section, 22 year old Luis Liberato and 23 year old Anthony Jimenez, don't exactly qualify as "distant" but fit better here than in the utility section due to their upside. Liberato slashed .250/.317/.424 at Modesto in the High California League this year, which is decent given the hitter-friendly nature of the league. He's got power, good plate discipline, and good defense, but he'll still have to take another step forward with the bat to be any kind of impact player. Jimenez, meanwhile, slashed .262/.314/.377 with six home runs and 13 stolen bases the same level, which is somewhat disappointing. His defense and speed buy his bat time, but having just turned 23, the bat will have to pick up sooner or later.
Update: Mariners have since acquired Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson, Dom Thompson-Williams, Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Gerson Bautista, and Jake Fraley
Affiliates: AAA Tacoma Rainiers, AA Arkansas Travelers, High A Modesto Nuts, Class A Clinton LumberKings*, Short Season Everett AquaSox, complex level AZL and DSL Mariners
*Class A Affiliate will move from Clinton, IA to Charleston, WV in 2019
The Headliner: OF Kyle Lewis
Kyle Lewis was drafted eleventh overall out of Mercer in 2016, though many people - myself included - saw this as a steal for the Mariners, who seemed to be getting a top ten or even top five talent. However, after a strong start to his pro career (.299/.385/.530 in 30 games at Short Season Everett in 2016), he blew out his knee in a home plate collision and it seems he is still feeling the effects. 2017 (.257/.329/.412) and 2018 (.244/.306/.405) have both been mediocre as he still doesn't appear fully healthy, and he turned 23 in July. Now, let's get to the good news. He is still extremely talented, and pre-injury he showed plus power, plus speed, a plus arm, and quick enough hands to hit for a high average. He still shows the quick hands and gets to his power occasionally (nine home runs and 26 doubles this year), and the lack of production really isn't his fault. His hands get through the zone so quickly that with his 6'4" frame, you can't give up on him yet. It's easy to project a healthy Lewis having an Eloy Jimenez-type breakout season in 2019, and if it all breaks right, I think he could hit 20-30 home runs per season in the majors with on-base percentages in the .350 range and good defense in the outfield.
Advanced Utility Prospects: 1B Evan White, OF Braden Bishop, 3B Joe Rizzo, SS Donnie Walton, OF Eric Filia, OF Chuck Taylor
While Kyle Lewis looks to be the next star in Seattle, the guys in this section of the list, save for White, don't project to be much more than bench assets. Fortunately for the Mariners, there are quite a few of them, meaning that one could end up exceeding expectations and contributing in a significant way. We'll start with Evan White, easily the second best position player prospect in the system. A high floor, low ceiling player when he was drafted 17th overall out of Kentucky in 2017, he has performed exactly to expectations, slashing .300/.371/.453 with eleven home runs and a 108/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games this year, 120 of which came at High A Modesto. As with any California League statistics, they must be taken with a grain of salt, but these pretty much tell the story: a high on-base percentage and enough power to make pitchers respect him. While the power might be a little light for a first baseman who is typically expected to provide the thump, he makes up for it with exceptional defense (not common among first basemen) and he could be shifted to the outfield if needed. Expect a productive bat that may not be able to serve in the middle of a lineup but one that could slot nicely as a #6 hitter. 25 year old outfielder Braden Bishop is already a fan favorite, and for good reason. He established a charity called 4MOM in honor of his mother, who was diagnosed with Alzheimers, and he is extremely active in his philanthropic endeavor. On the baseball side, he slashed .284/.361/.412 with eight home runs and a 68/37 strikeout to walk ratio at AA Arkansas this year, showing serviceability in all aspects of offense. His glove is considered excellent in the outfield, and because he has shown some competency at the plate, he should have little trouble reaching the majors. However, since he doesn't offer much power and he's only a marginally productive on-base threat, I think it's unlikely that he ends up a leadoff hitter, but he still could be a nice bottom of the order piece. Most likely, he's a productive fourth outfielder. 20 year old infielder Joe Rizzo has seen his bat stagnate as he has moved up through the minors, slashing .241/.303/.321 with four home runs and a 108/40 strikeout to walk ratio even at hitter-friendly Modesto, and it's looking like he'll need to make some adjustments ahead of the 2019 season if he wants to remain a notable prospect. His defense is so-so, but fortunately, time is on his side and he is universally noted for his work ethic, which could help him tap the considerable raw power I still believe he possesses. He just needs to get more consistent with his approach. 24 year old infielder Donnie Walton hit much better at Modesto (.309/.402/.433) than he did after his promotion to Arkansas (.236/.325/.327), showing a classic utility projection with his defense, on-base ability, and lack of power. His solid approach (71/51 K/BB) gives him a high floor, and he'll likely be in Seattle by the end of 2019. 26 year old outfielder Eric Filia is an interesting prospect in that he was nearly 24 when he was drafted out of UCLA in 2016, has been suspended twice for drugs of abuse, and that his plate discipline is excellent despite a so-so bat. At Arkansas this year, he slashed .274/.371/.348 with just a pair of home runs, but his 30/44 strikeout to walk ratio shows great patience (12.8% walk rate) as well as great bat to ball skills (8.7% strikeout rate). That bodes well for him to be able to translate his hitting up to the majors, though his lack of power and ability to hit the ball with much authority, combined with his age at this point, will likely render him to a fourth or fifth outfielder role. Lastly, 25 year old outfielder Chuck Taylor has a similar current on-field profile to Filia, slashing .297/.377/.376 with three home runs and a nice 79/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at Arkansas. As with Filia, there's not much power, but he has shown an advanced approach at the upper levels which will help him get to the majors.
Starting Pitching Options: Logan Gilbert, Sam Carlson, Max Povse, Rob Whalen
There isn't much pitching talent in the system, and the group is even thinner when it comes to starting pitchers. In fact, with Michigan natives Anthony Misiewicz (5.24 ERA, 95/29 K/BB at mostly AA) and Oliver Jaskie (6.60 ERA, 77/49 K/BB at Class A) having rough seasons, the four listed in this section are the only ones with any real shot at being difference-making starting pitchers. The system's top pitching prospect, 2018 first rounder (14th overall) Logan Gilbert, has not thrown a professional pitch yet. He dominated at Stetson this year (11-2, 2.72 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 163/25 K/BB in 112 IP), showing an advanced four pitch arsenal which, when combined with his 6'6" frame, gives him a very high ceiling. However, his stuff was somewhat inconsistent in 2018, giving him some risk as a pitcher who might not be able to make his stuff translate upwards. We'll see if the Seattle development program makes an ace out of Gilbert or ends up with a relief arm. Sam Carlson, who was drafted in the second round (55th overall) out of a Minnesota high school in 2017 but who signed for first round money, is a long way off. The 19 year old underwent Tommy John surgery in July, meaning he probably won't pitch at all in 2019. When healthy, the 6'4" righty has ace-like stuff, throwing in the mid 90's and adding a wicked slider/changeup combination while controlling it all well for a teenager. Age is on his side, but we'll just have to play the wait and see game to find out if he becomes the next Felix Hernandez. 25 year old Max Povse came over in a trade from the Braves after the 2016 season, and while he seems to have AA down, he has struggled to perform in AAA. Between the 2017 and 2018 seasons, both of which were split between AA Arkansas and AAA Tacoma, he is 7-5 with a 3.43 ERA and a 92/33 strikeout to walk ratio at Arkansas but 2-10 with an 8.17 ERA and a 74/40 strikeout to walk ratio at Tacoma. The 6'8" righty has average stuff that plays up due to his height, but it looks like AAA hitting has figured him out and he'll need his stuff to take one more step forward to be successful in the majors. He has a #4/#5 starter ceiling but if converted to relief, he can probably be a solid bullpen piece right now. 24 year old Rob Whalen has been a prospect for a long time, having been drafted in 2012 out of high school in Florida. He dominated the low minors but has struggled in the upper minors, mixing his average stuff and getting mediocre results. He posted a 5.16 ERA and a 92/37 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA Tacoma this year, which isn't awful considering the context, and he really only needs to take one more step forward to be a useful #5 starter for the Mariners. More likely, he's a long reliever.
Bullpen Options: Matthew Festa, Wyatt Mills, Joey Gerber, Art Warren, Nick Rumbelow
Relief prospects tend to pop out of nowhere, either as converted starters or guys who just found something that clicked. The Mariners don't have many of these either, but they don't have much of anything and this spot isn't necessarily a weak one for them. Matthew Festa offers the best combination of major league readiness and upside, coming in with a pretty good fastball/slider combination backed up by a curveball and a changeup. He posted a 2.76 ERA and a nice 67/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 innings at AA Arkansas this year, reaching the majors for a few appearances with mixed results. The 25 year old has a decent shot of breaking camp with the Mariners next year, and if he doesn't he should be one of the first to be called up from the minors to do some middle relief work. 23 year old Wyatt Mills pitched very well at High A Modesto (1.91 ERA, 49/9 K/BB in 42.1 IP) but struggled with his promotion to Arkansas (10.13 ERA, 10/4 K/BB in 10.2 IP). He's a sidearming righty with a true fastball/slider combo, working more from a place of deception than of dominance. He hasn't proven that he can hold up against higher level hitting, but his upside is higher than Festa's. 21 year old Joey Gerber was just drafted in the eighth round out of Illinois this past June, but he has already made a name for himself in this system by posting a 2.10 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 43/11 strikeout to walk ratio over his first 25.2 innings in the minors, split between the short season Northwest League and Class A Clinton. He uses a very good, very deceptive fastball/slider combination to get outs, but with that deception comes some command problems which ultimately have not hampered him yet in the minors. Look for Gerber to be among the first 2018 draftees for any team to reach the majors. 25 year old Art Warren is a converted starter who battled shoulder issues in 2018, using his full, four pitch arsenal to rack up strikeouts but also struggling with command. He may have to drop a pitch going forward (probably his changeup), but getting healthy and throwing strikes will be his most important goal because he is clearly talented enough to pitch in the major leagues. 27 year old Nick Rumbelow makes this list really because of his proximity to the majors. He actually pitched for the Yankees in the majors as far back as 2015, but with 33.1 career major league innings he is still technically a prospect. He has mastered the minor leagues and has a 1.35 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 71/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings in AA and AAA over the last two seasons, so all he really needs is an opportunity. At 27, he's probably not getting any better.
Distant Offensive Wild Cards: OF Josh Stowers, C Cal Raleigh, OF Julio Rodriguez, SS Juan Querecuto, SS Noelvi Marte, OF Luis Liberato, OF Anthony Jimenez
The reasons behind the Mariners' lack of advanced prospects comes from a combination of trades and poor player development, which is why you see all these names here at the bottom, where the Mariners actually have some depth. I'll start with the two 2018 draftees from major ACC programs. I saw second rounder (54th overall) Josh Stowers play for Louisville this year, and he's a wiry outfielder with tons of speed, patience, and a bat that was picking up as the spring progressed. He hit .260/.380/.410 with 20 stolen bases in the short season Northwest League this year, and if he can keep his strikeouts down and recognize pitches well, he could be a leadoff man in Seattle. Third rounder (90th overall) Cal Raleigh comes from Florida State and is the team's best catching prospect, and his .288/.367/.534 line in 38 games in the Northwest League was very encouraging. He has a lot to prove against more advanced pitching and with his defense behind the plate, but not a lot of catchers can swing it and he can. The next two players, Julio Rodriguez and Juan Querecuto, played all of 2018 at just 17 years old down in the Dominican Summer League. Rodriguez hit .315/.404/.525 with ten stolen bases and a 40/30 strikeout to walk ratio while showing arguably the best upside in the entire system, while Querecuto hit .243/.331/.329 with a 54/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Rodriguez is an outfielder who obviously has a long, long way to go, but he's done everything asked of him so far and could be an impact player in Seattle four or five years down the road. Querecuto, meanwhile, is more known for his defense at shortstop and his bat will need to develop considerably if he wants to make it. The defense does give the bat plenty of time, though, and takes the pressure off of it as he moves up. Noelvi Marte, who just turned 17 a few weeks ago, might be the youngest player I write about in this series because of the Mariners' lack of depth. The shortstop has big time power that should grow as he adds loft, and as a shortstop the bat has time to develop. His defense doesn't quite match Querecuto's but the bat is better. Of course, he has not appeared in the minors yet so he is completely unproven. The last two guys in this section, 22 year old Luis Liberato and 23 year old Anthony Jimenez, don't exactly qualify as "distant" but fit better here than in the utility section due to their upside. Liberato slashed .250/.317/.424 at Modesto in the High California League this year, which is decent given the hitter-friendly nature of the league. He's got power, good plate discipline, and good defense, but he'll still have to take another step forward with the bat to be any kind of impact player. Jimenez, meanwhile, slashed .262/.314/.377 with six home runs and 13 stolen bases the same level, which is somewhat disappointing. His defense and speed buy his bat time, but having just turned 23, the bat will have to pick up sooner or later.
Friday, June 29, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Seattle Mariners
First 5 rounds: Logan Gilbert (1-14), Josh Stowers (2-54), Cal Raleigh (3-90), Michael Plassmeyer (4-118), Nolan Hoffman (5-148)
Also notable: Joey Gerber (8-238), Keegan McGovern (9-268), Beau Branton (28-838)
It's tough to know what to make of the Mariners' draft this year, as they leaned heavily on college players (no high schoolers until 11th round) and also shied away from more traditional names, taking guys that many would consider to be reaches. Due to a busy semester, my rankings were a bit shallow this year and only went up to 110, but the M's only took one player on that list despite having four picks in the top 118. For now, the talent pool looks light; we'll see in a few years.
1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (my rank: 15)
If there is one pick that doesn't look like a reach right off the bat, it's their first round pick. Stetson righty Logan Gilbert has been one of the most feared pitchers in college baseball the past few years, finishing it off this year by going 11-2 with a 2.72 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 163/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 112 innings for the Hatters. As you might be able to guess from the stats, the projectable 6'6" righty has nasty stuff, headlined by a low to mid 90's fastball, both a slider and a curveball, and a useable changeup. He's a bit inconsistent, but when he's right, he shows four above average pitches right now, all from an easy delivery and a whippy right arm. He's your classic mid-first round college pitching prospect, one with upper rotation projectability but also with a high enough floor that the risk associated with high ceiling picks isn't really present with him. On top of that, he dominated the Cape Cod League last summer to the tune of a 1.72 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 31/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 31.1 innings, proving at the very least that his stuff plays up very well against college baseball's best. There was some time in the early to middle part of the season where he was looking more like a back end of the first round guy as his stuff backed up just a hair, but he fixed it and was looking as good as ever towards the end of the season. He also just turned 21 in May, and he signed right at slot for just under $3.9 million.
2-54: OF Josh Stowers (unranked)
Josh Stowers put up great numbers all around at Louisville this year, slashing .336/.477/.559 with nine home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 37/52 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games. From a performance perspective, there's really not much more you can ask. I saw him play back in April, when he was slashing a much less impressive .276/.435/.440; he got hot soon afterwards. Listed at 6'1" and 200 lbs, he's a very skinny guy who likely is physically maxed out, and he'll rely on speed and on-base ability to get to the majors. I don't really see his power playing well at SAFECO Field, but his plate discipline (12.8% strikeout rate, 17.9% walk rate) should help his hit tool play up and he should have no problem posting on-base percentages north of .350, and he should have enough power to the point where he can hit double digit home runs most years. At his ceiling, he looks like a very valuable player, but his floor is low enough that I question this pick in the second round. He signed for $1.1 million ($187,800 below slot) and is making the Mariners look good so far in a tiny sample, slashing .348/.464/.609 with a home run, four stolen bases, and an 8/3 strikeout to walk ratio in seven games in the Short-Season Northwest League. He's still riding that hot streak from the end of the college season, so we'll see how he fares as he builds up the sample size.
3-90: C Cal Raleigh (unranked)
Raleigh could go a number of ways. The Florida State catcher had a huge bounce back season this year, following up an awful sophomore season (.227/.330/.398, 9 HR, 39/39 K/BB) with a big junior year, slashing .326/.447/.583 with 13 home runs and a 43/51 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games, mostly against quality ACC pitching. You see the combination of power and plate discipline, evidenced by an 18% walk rate, and from a switch-hitting catcher, that's even more valuable. Unfortunately, he's far from a lock to stick at catcher, as he's a below average defender with a good chance of moving to first base. On top of that, Raleigh's 15.1% strikeout rate was fairly reasonable, but he doesn't have the quickest swing and might struggle against higher velocities in the minors. Basically, he's neither a lock to hit or a lock to stick behind the plate, so it's a risky pick in the third round. The Mariners must be very confident in either his bat, glove, or both though to take him here. He has not signed yet, with pick value sitting at $632,700.
4-118: LHP Michael Plassmeyer (unranked)
From Max Scherzer to Tanner Houck, there have been plenty of pitchers to come out of the University of Missouri with three quarter arm slots. Up next is Michael Plassmeyer, a 6'2" lefty with an upper 80's fastball and average stuff that plays up due to spin rates and command. In 14 starts for Mizzou this year, he went 5-4 with a 3.05 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 103/17 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. Obviously, that strikeout rate will come down in pro ball against better hitters, but the combination of deception and command from the left side give him a chance to stick as a #4 or #5 starter. If not, he could bump his fastball into the low 90's as a reliever and become a long man. He signed for $425,000, which is $44,400 below slot. So far in the Northwest League, he has thrown three shutout innings over two starts, striking out six and walking none.
Others: 5th rounder Nolan Hoffman is a 6'4" right handed reliever out of Texas A&M who put up a 1.24 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 51/11 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 innings for the Aggies this year. A&M dropped him down to a sidearm/submarine slot this year, which has paid huge dividends, and he could move through the minors quickly. 8th rounder Joey Gerber is another reliever, putting up a good season at Illinois (3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 45/14 K/BB in 28.2 IP). He has a high effort delivery with a short arm path, throwing his fastball in the low to mid 90's and setting hitters down with a good slider. His command comes and goes, but that's not as important as a reliever compared to for starters. 9th rounder Keegan McGovern improved in each of his four years at Georgia, capping it off with a huge senior season where he slashed .319/.431/.644 with 18 home runs and a 46/37 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games. As a corner outfielder, his bat will have to carry him, but he proved he can crush SEC pitching and he could get to the majors fairly quickly if he makes enough contact. The Mariners already pushed him to Class A Clinton, where he already crushed two home runs in his first seven games against guys who have been in the minors a lot longer than he has. 28th rounder Beau Branton was barely noticeable on the Stanford roster for his first three years, and not just because he's 5'7". He slashed .220/.306/.256 as a freshman in 2015 then played just 29 games over the next two seasons, but he broke out for a .361/.440/.428 line, a 27/19 strikeout to walk ratio, and his first collegiate home run in 2018. His power projection is non-existent, but he's a scrappy hitter who can get on base and play a few positions in the field. He likely never gets past AA, but it's a fun profile.
Also notable: Joey Gerber (8-238), Keegan McGovern (9-268), Beau Branton (28-838)
It's tough to know what to make of the Mariners' draft this year, as they leaned heavily on college players (no high schoolers until 11th round) and also shied away from more traditional names, taking guys that many would consider to be reaches. Due to a busy semester, my rankings were a bit shallow this year and only went up to 110, but the M's only took one player on that list despite having four picks in the top 118. For now, the talent pool looks light; we'll see in a few years.
1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (my rank: 15)
If there is one pick that doesn't look like a reach right off the bat, it's their first round pick. Stetson righty Logan Gilbert has been one of the most feared pitchers in college baseball the past few years, finishing it off this year by going 11-2 with a 2.72 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 163/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 112 innings for the Hatters. As you might be able to guess from the stats, the projectable 6'6" righty has nasty stuff, headlined by a low to mid 90's fastball, both a slider and a curveball, and a useable changeup. He's a bit inconsistent, but when he's right, he shows four above average pitches right now, all from an easy delivery and a whippy right arm. He's your classic mid-first round college pitching prospect, one with upper rotation projectability but also with a high enough floor that the risk associated with high ceiling picks isn't really present with him. On top of that, he dominated the Cape Cod League last summer to the tune of a 1.72 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 31/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 31.1 innings, proving at the very least that his stuff plays up very well against college baseball's best. There was some time in the early to middle part of the season where he was looking more like a back end of the first round guy as his stuff backed up just a hair, but he fixed it and was looking as good as ever towards the end of the season. He also just turned 21 in May, and he signed right at slot for just under $3.9 million.
2-54: OF Josh Stowers (unranked)
Josh Stowers put up great numbers all around at Louisville this year, slashing .336/.477/.559 with nine home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 37/52 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games. From a performance perspective, there's really not much more you can ask. I saw him play back in April, when he was slashing a much less impressive .276/.435/.440; he got hot soon afterwards. Listed at 6'1" and 200 lbs, he's a very skinny guy who likely is physically maxed out, and he'll rely on speed and on-base ability to get to the majors. I don't really see his power playing well at SAFECO Field, but his plate discipline (12.8% strikeout rate, 17.9% walk rate) should help his hit tool play up and he should have no problem posting on-base percentages north of .350, and he should have enough power to the point where he can hit double digit home runs most years. At his ceiling, he looks like a very valuable player, but his floor is low enough that I question this pick in the second round. He signed for $1.1 million ($187,800 below slot) and is making the Mariners look good so far in a tiny sample, slashing .348/.464/.609 with a home run, four stolen bases, and an 8/3 strikeout to walk ratio in seven games in the Short-Season Northwest League. He's still riding that hot streak from the end of the college season, so we'll see how he fares as he builds up the sample size.
3-90: C Cal Raleigh (unranked)
Raleigh could go a number of ways. The Florida State catcher had a huge bounce back season this year, following up an awful sophomore season (.227/.330/.398, 9 HR, 39/39 K/BB) with a big junior year, slashing .326/.447/.583 with 13 home runs and a 43/51 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games, mostly against quality ACC pitching. You see the combination of power and plate discipline, evidenced by an 18% walk rate, and from a switch-hitting catcher, that's even more valuable. Unfortunately, he's far from a lock to stick at catcher, as he's a below average defender with a good chance of moving to first base. On top of that, Raleigh's 15.1% strikeout rate was fairly reasonable, but he doesn't have the quickest swing and might struggle against higher velocities in the minors. Basically, he's neither a lock to hit or a lock to stick behind the plate, so it's a risky pick in the third round. The Mariners must be very confident in either his bat, glove, or both though to take him here. He has not signed yet, with pick value sitting at $632,700.
4-118: LHP Michael Plassmeyer (unranked)
From Max Scherzer to Tanner Houck, there have been plenty of pitchers to come out of the University of Missouri with three quarter arm slots. Up next is Michael Plassmeyer, a 6'2" lefty with an upper 80's fastball and average stuff that plays up due to spin rates and command. In 14 starts for Mizzou this year, he went 5-4 with a 3.05 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 103/17 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. Obviously, that strikeout rate will come down in pro ball against better hitters, but the combination of deception and command from the left side give him a chance to stick as a #4 or #5 starter. If not, he could bump his fastball into the low 90's as a reliever and become a long man. He signed for $425,000, which is $44,400 below slot. So far in the Northwest League, he has thrown three shutout innings over two starts, striking out six and walking none.
Others: 5th rounder Nolan Hoffman is a 6'4" right handed reliever out of Texas A&M who put up a 1.24 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 51/11 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 innings for the Aggies this year. A&M dropped him down to a sidearm/submarine slot this year, which has paid huge dividends, and he could move through the minors quickly. 8th rounder Joey Gerber is another reliever, putting up a good season at Illinois (3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 45/14 K/BB in 28.2 IP). He has a high effort delivery with a short arm path, throwing his fastball in the low to mid 90's and setting hitters down with a good slider. His command comes and goes, but that's not as important as a reliever compared to for starters. 9th rounder Keegan McGovern improved in each of his four years at Georgia, capping it off with a huge senior season where he slashed .319/.431/.644 with 18 home runs and a 46/37 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games. As a corner outfielder, his bat will have to carry him, but he proved he can crush SEC pitching and he could get to the majors fairly quickly if he makes enough contact. The Mariners already pushed him to Class A Clinton, where he already crushed two home runs in his first seven games against guys who have been in the minors a lot longer than he has. 28th rounder Beau Branton was barely noticeable on the Stanford roster for his first three years, and not just because he's 5'7". He slashed .220/.306/.256 as a freshman in 2015 then played just 29 games over the next two seasons, but he broke out for a .361/.440/.428 line, a 27/19 strikeout to walk ratio, and his first collegiate home run in 2018. His power projection is non-existent, but he's a scrappy hitter who can get on base and play a few positions in the field. He likely never gets past AA, but it's a fun profile.
Monday, June 4, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 10 College RHP's
College right handers are always popular on draft day, as they are often close to finished products and can get to the major leagues pretty quickly. Casey Mize is all but certain to go first overall, and four of these guys will almost certainly go in the first round. Five of the first seven guys on this list come from the SEC, which isn't surprising when you realize that Max Scherzer (Missouri), Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt), Aaron Nola (LSU), Michael Wacha (Texas A&M), Lance Lynn (Ole Miss), and plenty more were all SEC right handers.
1. Casey Mize (Auburn)
Nothing is ever a sure thing with the draft, but all signs point to Mize going first overall to the Tigers and have for a while. A year after one of the most dominant seasons in recent SEC history in 2017 (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 109/9 K/BB), Mize came right back with another huge season in 2018. Across 16 starts, the 6'3" righty went 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 151/12 strikeout to walk ratio across 109.2 innings, showcasing premium stuff and excellent command. He may not be all that projectable, but that is okay when the finished product throws mid 90's with an un-hittable splitter, a good slider, and the ability to command all three pitches wherever he wants them. He has a track record of success in the SEC and has very few flaws associated with his profile. To nitpick, he was shut down at the end of his sophomore season, but that didn't happen this year, though he did have a couple of so-so starts towards the end of this year.
2. Brady Singer (Florida)
Brady Singer will make it three straight years that a Florida Gator starting pitcher was drafted in the first eighteen picks, following A.J. Puk (6th overall, 2016) and Alex Faedo (18th overall, 2017). Singer dominated the powerful SEC as a sophomore last year (9-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 129/32 K/BB), then was even better this year, at least statistically, going 11-1 with a 2.27 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio across 95 innings. He is your prototypical top of the draft starting pitcher, bringing in a track record of performance, pitcher's frame (6'5", 180 lbs), a smooth delivery, a fastball in the mid 90's, a slider that is un-hittable at its best, a good changeup, and plenty of control to make it all work together. In addition, he is said to have a good work ethic and a true pitcher's mentality on the mound. Some scouts knock him for his inconsistency and his three quarters arm slot, but he still projects to go anywhere in the top half of the first round.
3. Logan Gilbert (Stetson)
Gilbert is a bit tough to project, having dominated both the Cape Cod League (1.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 31/4 K/BB) and the Atlantic Sun Conference in college, but he has been inconsistent at times and has a wide range of projections for a first round college starting pitcher. He turned in a very good season in 2018 (11-1, 2.52 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 157/23 K/BB), with the strikeout rate (38.1%) in particular standing out. Mid-major college hitters had no chance against Gilbert's stuff, and when he's at his best, it's truly premium. He is 6'5" and projectable, throwing in the mid 90's at his best with a very good slider, a curveball, a good changeup, and enough control to make it work. However, there have been times when he has dipped into the low 90's and his stuff has flattened out a bit, which pushes him out of top ten consideration, but a team confident in their ability to bring his best out of him could take him in the middle of the first round. The combination of strikeout stuff, Cape performance, and projectability is very valuable.
4. Jackson Kowar (Florida)
We're on number four and still haven't made it north of southern Alabama, but that's okay. The 6'5" Kowar pitches in the same Gator rotation as Brady Singer, and at times, he has been better than his more well-known counterpart. Kowar also took a step forward statistically this season, going 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings in the tough SEC. He's a different pitcher than Singer, as his breaking ball, a curve, isn't nearly as advanced, and he relies on a changeup as his primary offspeed pitch. That changeup is excellent, generating tons of swings and misses, and will buy his curveball time to develop. Meanwhile, his fastball already sits in the mid 90's, and with his projectable frame, it could get even faster. His control is just average, and improving that could be his key to success even if he doesn't improve the curve. His draft range is the same as Gilbert's, somewhere in the middle of the first round.
5. Tristan Beck (Stanford)
There is a big gap between Gilbert/Kowar and the next best college righty available, Tristan Beck, but Beck still has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. The 6'4" Stanford ace was eligible last year and could have been a first round pick if he hadn't hurt his back and missed the season, so he's back again this year and figures to go somewhere just outside the first round. Beck hasn't quite taken the step forward scouts were hoping for this year, finishing 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. His stuff hasn't been quite as sharp as it was his healthy freshman season, though where it is now is still pretty good. He throws in the low 90's without much movement, and his curve is still good despite losing some bite from two years ago. The changeup is his out pitch, and he commands it well, giving him three solid pitches from a clean delivery. His command is pretty good overall, enough to make his stuff play up and get him to the majors, but it's not quite plus and it won't make him an impact starter on its own. His age also is a negative, as he turns 22 just a few weeks after the draft.
6. Sean Hjelle (Kentucky)
The first thing that stands out about Hjelle, and the first thing you'll hear in any scouting report about him, is that he's 6'11". If he makes the majors, he'll tie Jon Rauch as the tallest player in major league history. He's a true string bean, so if he can add some good weight, there is a world of projection. Hjelle currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and throws a pretty good curveball, and his slider and changeup fill out his arsenal. Despite his exceptional height, he commands his pitches very well, and the downward plane he generates helps all of his pitches play up. There is always injury risk with a player of his size, but so far he has proven durable and his athleticism should help mitigate at least some of those concerns. He finished his junior season 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings mostly against tough SEC hitting, and he figures to go somewhere in the second round.
7. Blaine Knight (Arkansas)
Like Beck, Knight was eligible as a sophomore last season, but he didn't sign when teams failed to meet his lofty price tag. He improved his stats somewhat this year, going 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. There is a little bit of tweener risk here, but Knight does have very good present stuff that includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a pretty good slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which he can land for strikes. One knock against him is his size, because despite his 6'3" height, he is very skinny and probably won't be able to add much weight, meaning possible durability issues down the line. His drafting team will run him out as a starter at first and see how long he can last, though he may ultimately be destined for the bullpen. Like Beck, he is a little older and will turn 22 shortly after the draft, where he is projected to go in the second round.
8. Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest)
Roberts is definitely an interesting arm. The 6'3" righty was also eligible last season, but obviously didn't sign. That year, he was a lights out reliever, posting a 2.19 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 80/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings, showing premium stuff and mediocre command. Wake Forest moved him to the rotation this spring with mixed results, as he finished 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 130/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings. His walk rate actually improved and he continued to strike out an absurd number of hitters, but he was hit a bit harder. There is effort in his delivery and his changeup isn't all that advanced, so there is a very good chance he could end up a reliever, but he'd be excellent there. In short spurts, his fastball sits in the mid 90's and his slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, though he loses a few MPH off that fastball as a starter and the slider more plus than plus-plus in long outings. He'll probably go in the second or third round, and his drafting team will likely try him out as a starter, but his home is probably in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination can be deadly. Like Beck and Knight, he also is old with a June birthday and will be 22 shortly after the draft.
9. Aaron Hernandez (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Of no relation to the deceased ex-football player, Hernandez is a very interesting prospect in his own right. The 6'2" righty throws a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup that all grade out as above average, and he has proven that he can maintain that stuff deep into starts. Those are the pros. On the negative side, he missed his entire sophomore season after being ruled academically ineligible to play, and when he came back for his junior year, he was hit harder than he should have been, going 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings in a less competitive Southland Conference. His strikeout rate is promising, but his crouch and drive delivery leads to a favorable angle for hitters to see and attack his pitches. I personally think pro coaching can help him alter that delivery enough to get the most out of his stuff. He did survive the Cape Cod League in a small sample, striking out eleven and walking four in ten innings. He projects anywhere in the second through fourth rounds.
10. Durbin Feltman (Texas Christian)
While Griffin Roberts will probably end up in the bullpen, Durbin Feltman is the only pure relief prospect on this list. His numbers were excellent at TCU, as he put up a 0.74 ERA, a matching 0.74 WHIP, and a 43/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings out of the bullpen. He had this success with a mid to upper 90's fastball that has hit 99 in the past as well as very good slider, despite coming in at just 6'1". The command is there as well, and he could be the first player in this class to reach the major leagues. He projects to come off the board sometime in the second or third rounds, though college relievers can go earlier than expected if a team wants an impact soon.
Others: Colton Eastman (Cal State Fullerton), Dylan Coleman (Missouri State), Mitchell Kilkenny (Texas A&M), Sean Wymer (TCU), Jonathan Stiever (Indiana)
1. Casey Mize (Auburn)
Nothing is ever a sure thing with the draft, but all signs point to Mize going first overall to the Tigers and have for a while. A year after one of the most dominant seasons in recent SEC history in 2017 (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 109/9 K/BB), Mize came right back with another huge season in 2018. Across 16 starts, the 6'3" righty went 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 151/12 strikeout to walk ratio across 109.2 innings, showcasing premium stuff and excellent command. He may not be all that projectable, but that is okay when the finished product throws mid 90's with an un-hittable splitter, a good slider, and the ability to command all three pitches wherever he wants them. He has a track record of success in the SEC and has very few flaws associated with his profile. To nitpick, he was shut down at the end of his sophomore season, but that didn't happen this year, though he did have a couple of so-so starts towards the end of this year.
2. Brady Singer (Florida)
Brady Singer will make it three straight years that a Florida Gator starting pitcher was drafted in the first eighteen picks, following A.J. Puk (6th overall, 2016) and Alex Faedo (18th overall, 2017). Singer dominated the powerful SEC as a sophomore last year (9-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 129/32 K/BB), then was even better this year, at least statistically, going 11-1 with a 2.27 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio across 95 innings. He is your prototypical top of the draft starting pitcher, bringing in a track record of performance, pitcher's frame (6'5", 180 lbs), a smooth delivery, a fastball in the mid 90's, a slider that is un-hittable at its best, a good changeup, and plenty of control to make it all work together. In addition, he is said to have a good work ethic and a true pitcher's mentality on the mound. Some scouts knock him for his inconsistency and his three quarters arm slot, but he still projects to go anywhere in the top half of the first round.
3. Logan Gilbert (Stetson)
Gilbert is a bit tough to project, having dominated both the Cape Cod League (1.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 31/4 K/BB) and the Atlantic Sun Conference in college, but he has been inconsistent at times and has a wide range of projections for a first round college starting pitcher. He turned in a very good season in 2018 (11-1, 2.52 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 157/23 K/BB), with the strikeout rate (38.1%) in particular standing out. Mid-major college hitters had no chance against Gilbert's stuff, and when he's at his best, it's truly premium. He is 6'5" and projectable, throwing in the mid 90's at his best with a very good slider, a curveball, a good changeup, and enough control to make it work. However, there have been times when he has dipped into the low 90's and his stuff has flattened out a bit, which pushes him out of top ten consideration, but a team confident in their ability to bring his best out of him could take him in the middle of the first round. The combination of strikeout stuff, Cape performance, and projectability is very valuable.
4. Jackson Kowar (Florida)
We're on number four and still haven't made it north of southern Alabama, but that's okay. The 6'5" Kowar pitches in the same Gator rotation as Brady Singer, and at times, he has been better than his more well-known counterpart. Kowar also took a step forward statistically this season, going 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings in the tough SEC. He's a different pitcher than Singer, as his breaking ball, a curve, isn't nearly as advanced, and he relies on a changeup as his primary offspeed pitch. That changeup is excellent, generating tons of swings and misses, and will buy his curveball time to develop. Meanwhile, his fastball already sits in the mid 90's, and with his projectable frame, it could get even faster. His control is just average, and improving that could be his key to success even if he doesn't improve the curve. His draft range is the same as Gilbert's, somewhere in the middle of the first round.
5. Tristan Beck (Stanford)
There is a big gap between Gilbert/Kowar and the next best college righty available, Tristan Beck, but Beck still has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. The 6'4" Stanford ace was eligible last year and could have been a first round pick if he hadn't hurt his back and missed the season, so he's back again this year and figures to go somewhere just outside the first round. Beck hasn't quite taken the step forward scouts were hoping for this year, finishing 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. His stuff hasn't been quite as sharp as it was his healthy freshman season, though where it is now is still pretty good. He throws in the low 90's without much movement, and his curve is still good despite losing some bite from two years ago. The changeup is his out pitch, and he commands it well, giving him three solid pitches from a clean delivery. His command is pretty good overall, enough to make his stuff play up and get him to the majors, but it's not quite plus and it won't make him an impact starter on its own. His age also is a negative, as he turns 22 just a few weeks after the draft.
6. Sean Hjelle (Kentucky)
The first thing that stands out about Hjelle, and the first thing you'll hear in any scouting report about him, is that he's 6'11". If he makes the majors, he'll tie Jon Rauch as the tallest player in major league history. He's a true string bean, so if he can add some good weight, there is a world of projection. Hjelle currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and throws a pretty good curveball, and his slider and changeup fill out his arsenal. Despite his exceptional height, he commands his pitches very well, and the downward plane he generates helps all of his pitches play up. There is always injury risk with a player of his size, but so far he has proven durable and his athleticism should help mitigate at least some of those concerns. He finished his junior season 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings mostly against tough SEC hitting, and he figures to go somewhere in the second round.
7. Blaine Knight (Arkansas)
Like Beck, Knight was eligible as a sophomore last season, but he didn't sign when teams failed to meet his lofty price tag. He improved his stats somewhat this year, going 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. There is a little bit of tweener risk here, but Knight does have very good present stuff that includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a pretty good slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which he can land for strikes. One knock against him is his size, because despite his 6'3" height, he is very skinny and probably won't be able to add much weight, meaning possible durability issues down the line. His drafting team will run him out as a starter at first and see how long he can last, though he may ultimately be destined for the bullpen. Like Beck, he is a little older and will turn 22 shortly after the draft, where he is projected to go in the second round.
8. Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest)
Roberts is definitely an interesting arm. The 6'3" righty was also eligible last season, but obviously didn't sign. That year, he was a lights out reliever, posting a 2.19 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 80/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings, showing premium stuff and mediocre command. Wake Forest moved him to the rotation this spring with mixed results, as he finished 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 130/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings. His walk rate actually improved and he continued to strike out an absurd number of hitters, but he was hit a bit harder. There is effort in his delivery and his changeup isn't all that advanced, so there is a very good chance he could end up a reliever, but he'd be excellent there. In short spurts, his fastball sits in the mid 90's and his slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, though he loses a few MPH off that fastball as a starter and the slider more plus than plus-plus in long outings. He'll probably go in the second or third round, and his drafting team will likely try him out as a starter, but his home is probably in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination can be deadly. Like Beck and Knight, he also is old with a June birthday and will be 22 shortly after the draft.
9. Aaron Hernandez (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Of no relation to the deceased ex-football player, Hernandez is a very interesting prospect in his own right. The 6'2" righty throws a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup that all grade out as above average, and he has proven that he can maintain that stuff deep into starts. Those are the pros. On the negative side, he missed his entire sophomore season after being ruled academically ineligible to play, and when he came back for his junior year, he was hit harder than he should have been, going 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings in a less competitive Southland Conference. His strikeout rate is promising, but his crouch and drive delivery leads to a favorable angle for hitters to see and attack his pitches. I personally think pro coaching can help him alter that delivery enough to get the most out of his stuff. He did survive the Cape Cod League in a small sample, striking out eleven and walking four in ten innings. He projects anywhere in the second through fourth rounds.
10. Durbin Feltman (Texas Christian)
While Griffin Roberts will probably end up in the bullpen, Durbin Feltman is the only pure relief prospect on this list. His numbers were excellent at TCU, as he put up a 0.74 ERA, a matching 0.74 WHIP, and a 43/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings out of the bullpen. He had this success with a mid to upper 90's fastball that has hit 99 in the past as well as very good slider, despite coming in at just 6'1". The command is there as well, and he could be the first player in this class to reach the major leagues. He projects to come off the board sometime in the second or third rounds, though college relievers can go earlier than expected if a team wants an impact soon.
Others: Colton Eastman (Cal State Fullerton), Dylan Coleman (Missouri State), Mitchell Kilkenny (Texas A&M), Sean Wymer (TCU), Jonathan Stiever (Indiana)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)