Sunday, September 8, 2019

2019 Minor League Awards

I put together some awards for the top minor leaguers in a few categories. These are strictly performance based and don't have anything to do with prospect status, though prospect status and being at a higher level would give some players the edge over others in close contests. Different minor leagues have very different run scoring environments, and those are very much factored into consideration. For example, the AAA Pacific Coast League is an extremely hitter-friendly environment, the AAA International League and High A California League are hitter-friendly as well, and leagues such as the AA Texas League, High A Florida State League, and the Class A Midwest League lean more pitcher-friendly.

Hitter of the Year

Winner: OF Luis Robert (White Sox High A, AA, and AAA, age 21-22)
32 HR, .328/.376/.624, 36 SB, 170 wRC+ in 122 games
In 2017, a 19 year old Braves prospect slashed .325/.374/.522 with 21 home runs and 44 stolen bases across the three highest minor league levels, then won the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year Award. The White Sox hope that 22 year old Luis Robert is halfway to following in Ronald Acuna's footsteps with his huge and eerily similar season across three levels. Robert, who was 21 at the beginning of the season, began at High A Winston-Salem but demolished Carolina League pitching to the tune of a .453/.512/.920 slash line and eight home runs over 19 games before being promoted to AA Birmingham. He continued to rake in the Southern League, hitting eight more home runs and slashing .314/.362/.518 across 56 games, then got promoted again to AAA Charlotte. The ball was flying in AAA this year and all power numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but a .297/.341/.634 with 16 home runs over 47 games is still extremely impressive for someone who started the season down in A ball. The Cuban outfielder is an exceptional athlete with the kind of power/speed combination teams covet, and by crushing 32 home runs in 2019, he proved that getting to that power is no problem whatsoever. He's an aggressive hitter who makes a lot of contact and therefore fails to draw a ton of walks, but because he still hit .328, his .376 on-base percentage remained strong. Eloy Jimenez was the White Sox' top outfield prospect a year ago but Robert has a very good chance to be the better player very soon.

Runner-Up: SS Gavin Lux (Dodgers AA and AAA, age 21)
26 HR, .347/.421/.607, 10 SB, 165 wRC+ in 113 games
A first round pick in 2016 out of a Wisconsin high school, Lux has gotten better and better the longer he has been in the Dodgers system. A mediocre 2017 at Class A Great Lakes translated into a very strong 2018 between High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa, and he returned to the level for 2019. Over 64 games, he slashed .313/.375/.521 with 13 home runs and seven stolen bases, so the Dodgers promoted him across the state to AAA Oklahoma City. The Pacific Coast League is an extremely offense-friendly environment, but even in that context, the numbers he put up in 49 games were ludicrous: 13 home runs, a .392/.478/.719 slash line, and a strong 42/33 strikeout to walk ratio despite being just 21 years old. Together, that meant he slashed .347/.421/.607 with 26 home runs over 113 games, all the while playing strong defense at shortstop and showing his speed on the bases. Lux has power, strong plate discipline, the ability to get on base, some speed, and strong infield defense, leaving very few holes in his game and he's already up in the major leagues contributing with the Dodgers. Unless he somehow reaches 130 at bats this September, he'll be a strong candidate for the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Award after Dodgers won it in both 2016 (Corey Seager) and 2017 (Cody Bellinger), followed by a very strong 2018 performance from Walker Buehler.

Honorable Mention: OF Jarred Kelenic (Mariners Class A, High A, and AA, age 19-20)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games
Jarred Kelenic's numbers might not be as eye popping as the other five players listed here, but he was also the only one who didn't get a turn through homer-happy AAA. Kelenic, the Mets' sixth overall pick out of a Wisconsin high school in 2018 who was traded to the Mariners in the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano deal, began the season with Class A West Virginia and quickly hit his way out by slashing .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs in 50 games in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. Bumped up to High A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League, he held his own against older competition by slashing .290/.353/.485 with six home runs and ten stolen bases in 46 games. A second promotion brought him to AA Arkansas less than a month after his 20th birthday, and he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six home runs over 21 games against much older competition in the pitcher-friendly Texas League. Together, that gave him a 20-20 season, a strong .364 on-base percentage, and a .540 slugging percentage across three levels at a young age, adding in good defense in the outfield along the way. Had Kelenic had the chance to play at AAA Tacoma in the Pacific Coast League, his raw numbers may have rivaled those of Trent Grisham, listed right below in the "others" section.

Others
Brewers OF Trent Grisham (26 HR, .300/.407/.603, 12 SB, 166 wRC+ in 97 games, age 22)
Twins/Giants OF Jaylin Davis (35 HR, .306/.397/.590, 10 SB,  159 wRC+ in 126 games, age 24-25)
Padres 3B Ty France (27 HR, .399/.477/.770, 1 SB, 196 wRC+ in 76 games, age 24-25)

Pitcher of the Year

Winner: RHP Logan Gilbert (Mariners Class A, High A, and AA, age 21-22)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP
Drafted in the first round out of Stetson in 2018, Gilbert didn't pitch professionally that year and first took the mound in the Mariners organization in April. At the close of the season, it's safe to say that it went pretty well. Gilbert started out at Class A West Virginia but lasted just five starts there with a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 35/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 22.2 innings before being promoted to High A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League. Nobody told him that it was an offense-heavy environment, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings. Promoted again to AA Arkansas, he posted a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings, bringing him to 165 strikeouts, a 2.13 ERA, and a sub-1.00 WHIP over 26 starts, half of which came in the California League. His best start of the season came on May 19th, when he shut down a strong Rancho Cucamonga lineup (Dodgers High A) over seven innings, allowing two hits and no walks while striking out eleven. In all, he allowed no more than one earned run in 18 of his 26 starts, and he struck out at least five batters in 21 of 26. Gilbert should be up in the majors at some point in 2020 as a potential future ace.

Runner-Up: RHP James Marvel (Pirates AA and AAA, age 25)
16-5, 2.94 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 136/46 K/BB in 162.1 IP
Marvel lacks the flash of other prospects on this list, and as a 25 year old former 36th round draft pick out of Duke, he still doesn't project to be much more than a #4 or #5 starter. Still, that doesn't take away from the fantastic season he had in 2019. Beginning the year with AA Altoona, he went 9-5 with a 3.10 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an 83/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings – solid numbers, but nothing that rivals the other guys on this list. However, he was promoted to AAA Indianapolis in July to pitch in the very hitter-friendly International League, and he just kicked it into another gear by going 7-0 with a 2.67 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings, helping him lead all minor leaguers with 16 wins and finish fifth with 162.1 innings pitched. The numbers aren't flashy, but the huge body of work combined with the exceptional turn through the International League where very few other pitchers seemed to be able to find their groove makes his final product as impressive as anybody's in Minor League Baseball. Marvel's most impressive start came on July 5th, when in his first game in the International League launching pad, he tossed seven shutout innings on three hits, no walks, and six strikeouts against Toledo (Tigers AAA). He also had Syracuse's (Mets AAA) number, tossing back to back starts of six shutout innings on a combined two hits and sixteen strikeouts (and five walks) on July 18th and 24th.

Honorable Mention: LHP MacKenzie Gore (Padres High A and AA, age 20)
9-2, 1.69 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 135/28 K/BB in 101 IP
MLB Pipeline named MacKenzie Gore their minor league pitcher of the year, and while I can't quite get behind that due to his smaller body of work (Logan Gilbert threw 34 more innings and James Marvel through 61.1 more), there's no denying that Gore was nothing short of brilliant in 2019. The third overall pick of the 2017 draft out of a small town North Carolina high school, Gore showed flashes of what was to come with an up and down 2018 at Class A Fort Wayne (4.45 ERA, 74/18 K/BB), but 2019 was a completely different story altogether. Starting the year at High A Lake Elsinore in the hitter-friendly California League, Gore was as close to untouchable as it gets as he posted a 1.02 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 110/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, totaling just 56 non-error baserunners in 15 starts. He was promoted to AA Amarillo less than six months after his 20th birthday and pitched very well again, though his 4.15 ERA was skewed by his July 19th start against Northwest Arkansas (Royals AA) where he allowed seven earned runs. If you take out that one start, Gore's final ERA and WHIP would be 1.11 and 0.76, respectively, over 97 innings. That's insane. During his time in Lake Elsinore, he allowed more than one run in only one of his 15 starts, and even then he only let two cross the plate in six innings. His last two starts at the level were his best, as he combined for 13.2 shutout innings on six hits, four walks, and one hit batsman while striking out 18, ironically with both of those starts coming against Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers High A), the same team which touched him up for two runs earlier in the season and which Logan Gilbert had his best start against. Gore will probably return to Amarillo in 2020 but could pitch his way to the majors before the season is over.

Others
Dodgers RHP Josiah Gray (11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP, age 21)
Astros RHP Cristian Javier (8-3, 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 170/59 K/BB in 113.2, age 22)
Rays RHP Joe Ryan (9-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 183/27 K/BB in 123.2 IP, age 22-23)

Other Notable Seasons

RHP Casey Mize (Tigers High A and AA, age 21-22)
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP
As of June 13th, Mize looked like a lock to not only make the Pitcher of the Year list, but win it handily. The 2018 first overall pick out of Auburn had been absolutely untouchable to that point, with a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings across two levels. On April 29th, his first start at AA Erie less than a year after being drafted, he tossed a no-hitter with seven strikeouts against Altoona (Pirates AA). However, on June 13th, he went down with shoulder issues that kept him out for a month, and he allowed five or more earned runs in three of his first five starts back with AA Erie after two rehab starts at High A Lakeland. Hopefully, Mize puts the shoulder issue behind him and gets back on track in 2020.

RHP James Karinchak (Indians complex, AA, and AAA, age 23)
1-1, 2.67 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 74/17 K/BB in 30.1 IP
A 2.67 ERA over 30 innings isn't going to land you on the short list for pitcher of the year, but Karinchak's season was pretty incredible nonetheless. In all, he struck out 74 of the 125 batters he faced, or 59.2%, which is the best number I've ever seen. Through two playoff games, he's struck out seven of the twelve batter's he's faced, bringing up him up to 81 strikeouts over 137 batters. He struggles with his command and won't be a major league closer immediately, but he misses bats like no other.

3B Ty France (Padres AAA, age 24-25) and 1B Kevin Cron (Diamondbacks AAA, age 26)
Ty France: 27 HR, .399/.477/.770, 1 SB, 196 wRC+ in 76 games
Kevin Cron: 39 HR, .329/.446/.777, 1 SB, 181 wRC+ in 84 games
Of all the big numbers put up in the AAA Pacific Coast League, perhaps no two hitters were more impressive than El Paso's Ty France and Reno's Kevin Cron. France flirted with .400 while hitting for power throughout the season and finished at .399/.477/.770 with 27 home runs in 76 games, while Cron smashed 39 home runs in 84 games while slashing .329/.446/.777 along the way. France had back to back multi-homer games in April and he hit six home runs in a five game stretch in June. On July 25th, he had one of the better offensive performances of the season when he went 5-6 with a pair of home runs against Las Vegas (A's AAA). Meanwhile, Cron hit seven home runs in a six game stretch in May and blasted three home runs on August 13th against Oklahoma City (Dodgers AAA), and together with his five major league home runs, he's already hit 44 on the season despite missing a couple weeks in July.

2 comments:

  1. Incredibly detailed analysis of the best of the prospects. But no Yanks ? :)

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    Replies
    1. Miguel Yajure had a case with a 2.14 ERA, 133/30 K/BB over 138.2 innings this year, but those were in pitcher-friendly environments in the Florida State League and Eastern League and others put up similar or better numbers in less forgiving environments

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