Man, if only the Pirates hadn't acquired less for Gerrit Cole, one of the best pitchers in the game, than they traded away for Chris Archer, a solid #4 starter. Even looking just specifically at the minor leagues, losing out on Shane Baz hurts, and the fact that highly touted draft picks like Steven Jennings, Braxton Ashcraft, and Conner Uselton have yet to really get it going hurts in the depth department. There are some really interesting guys, like Mitch Keller, Oneil Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes, and Travis Swaggerty, but overall I'm really underwhelmed by this system and I don't think they've drafted particularly well at all recently (though I do like Quinn Priester a lot). On the bright side, breakouts from Cody Bolton, Mason Martin, and Lolo Sanchez help a lot, and now the Pirates would like to see guys like Swaggerty, Ashcraft, and Santiago Florez do the same.
Affiliates: AAA Indianapolis Indians, AA Altoona Curve, High A Bradenton Marauders, Class A Greensboro Grasshoppers, short season West Virginia Black Bears, rookie level Bristol Pirates, complex level GCL and DSL Pirates
Catcher
- Jason Delay (2020 Age: 25): Despite drafting three well known college catchers in the top five rounds of the 2017 and 2018 drafts, the Pirates have very little in the way of future major league talent behind the plate. Delay, a fourth round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2017, is probably the most likely of the group to reach the majors after he slashed .234/.286/.398 with eight home runs and a 63/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games at AA Altoona. He's absolutely a glove-first guy, as he's good enough defensively to start every day in the majors right now and brings all the intangibles you need in a catcher. However, he'll never hit enough to start. Whether he hits enough to actually get to the majors at all is still up in the air, as he has some pop from the right side but not a lot and he doesn't have great on-base skills. The best case scenario here is probably something of a Jeff Mathis profile.
- Keep an eye on: Deon Stafford, Grant Koch
Corner Infield
- Ke'Bryan Hayes (2020 Age: 23): Hayes was a late first round pick out of a Houston-area high school in 2015 and he's moved up through the Pirates system one level at a time, finally reaching AAA in 2019 and slashing .261/.334/.411 with ten home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 92/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games, 110 of which were with Indianapolis. He's hit over power, with the knack for finding the barrel and hitting lots of balls to the gaps and quite a few over the fence. He'll probably always be more of a doubles hitter than a home run guy, as evidenced by his 62 doubles and 17 home runs over the past two seasons and the fact that he's physically mature at 6'1", and his strong plate discipline will help him be a doubles machine at the next level. In fact, his stats from Indianapolis this year might be a fair projection of what he'll do in the majors, maybe with a few more home runs to get him up to 15-20 annually. He's a defensive whiz at third base, which means the pressure is off his bat, not that he needs it off.
- Will Craig (2020 Age: 25): Craig is a very different prospect than Hayes, but the two still share a lot in common. Craig was drafted in the first round out of Wake Forest in 2016 and has moved a level at a time after skipping Class A, and in 2019 he slashed .249/.326/.435 with 23 home runs and a 146/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AAA Indianapolis. He's a power hitter at 6'3" and has increased his home run totals each year in the minors, though I can't say fully confidently that he'll get to it a ton at the major league level. He's a talented hitter who may be able to make it work up there, but he's also limited defensively to first base so he'll have to hit. I see kind of a borderline starter, one who hits 15-20 home runs annually but who may struggle in the on-base department.
- Mason Martin (2020 Age: 20-21): Here's an interesting one. Martin was a 17th round pick out of a high school in southeastern Washington in 2017, and he struggled significantly with contact in 2018 by striking out in 35.8% of his plate appearances in Class A and in 32.3% once he was dropped to rookie ball. This year was a different story; he crushed 35 home runs while slashing .254/.351/.558 with a 168/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Class A Greensboro and High A Bradenton, which meant a 29% strikeout rate at Class A and a 32.3% rate after the promotion to High A. That's still high, but he shortened his left handed swing in 2019 and that enabled him to get to his big time raw power significantly more often, and he led all minor leaguers with 129 RBI, way ahead of a second place tie at 107. Like Craig, he's limited to first base, but the trajectory is up here and Martin could be a real power threat at the major league level in a few years. Strikeouts will continue to be an issue but he doesn't turn 21 until June, so he has time.
- Dylan Busby (2020 Age: 24): I don't envision Busby ever becoming a full time starter for the Pirates at first base, as Mason Martin has more upside and Will Craig is a more advanced hitter at the same age, but his big time power could push him up the ladder in a bench role. In 2019, he slashed .213/.316/.453 with 22 home runs and a 158/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at High A Bradenton, with home runs and strikeouts (36.4% rate on the latter) being his calling card. He's 6'2" and generates his power from his long arms and naturally whippy swing, which should help it play up. However, he has serious swing and miss concerns and he's three and a half years older than Martin, so I'm not sure he'll ever fully put them behind him, and his best outlook is likely as a bench bat/pinch hitter with power.
- Keep an eye on: Jared Triolo
Middle Infield
- Kevin Kramer (2020 Age: 26): Yes, Pirates fans, Kevin Kramer is still technically a prospect. After slashing .135/.175/.135 in 21 major league games in 2018, he slightly improved that line to .167/.260/.190 in 22 major league games in 2019, though he spent the majority of his season at AAA Indianapolis and slashed .260/.335/.417 with ten home runs and a 116/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games. He's a pretty average player across the board, showing some power from time to time while also doing a pretty decent job of getting on base and keeping his strikeouts down, which should help him eventually adjust to major league pitching and improve that .152/.222/.165 career line. He's spent time at second and third base and will likely continue to do so in the majors, where he likely won't ever start regularly unless the Pirates try to tank and sell off guys like Colin Moran. He could also see time in the outfield in the likely case that Starling Marte ends up traded, and Kramer's offensive profile probably has him around ten home runs annually with middling on-base percentages.
- Oneil Cruz (2020 Age: 21): Here's the exciting one. Cruz was acquired from the Dodgers for Tony Watson in 2017 and has developed into one of the systems beset prospects, and in 2019 he slashed .298/.356/.475 with eight home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 74/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games, mostly at High A Bradenton and AA Altoona. He's an absolute beanstalk, listed a 6'7" and 175 pounds, but he's a surprisingly competent hitter who has improved his hit tool and who finds the barrel regularly because he doesn't sell out for his power. There may be some who actually wish he would do so, as he could hit 30+ home runs annually if he did without sacrificing that feel for the barrel, though I think he's better off staying true to himself as a hitter and letting that power develop naturally as he thickens up and improves his pitch recognition. Defensively, he's managed to stick at shortstop so far despite his height, as he has a plus-plus arm, though he may have to move to third base or the outfield eventually. Overall, nobody in this system has a higher ceiling.
- Robbie Glendinning (2020 Age: 24): Raise your hand if you saw this one coming. Robbie Glendinning, an Australia native and 21st round pick out of Missouri in 2017 who slashed an unremarkable .268/.360/.381 in 59 games in 2018, had a huge breakout this year. Starting at High A Bradenton, he slashed .340/.393/.599 with eight home runs and a 50/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games, forcing a quick promotion to AA Altoona, where he cooled off a bit but still slashed .261/.346/.391 with five home runs and a 65/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games against advanced pitching. While his power is mostly to the gaps, he was able to find his home run stroke 13 times in 2019 and impact the ball consistently, and now he has a chance to compete with Kevin Kramer and try to break into the majors as a utility infielder with gap power and feel for the barrel. I don't expect Glendinning to start regularly, but he's advanced enough to carve out a bench role soon.
- Ji-Hwan Bae (2020 Age: 20-21): Ugh. Bae is an extremely talented player, but he beat up his girlfriend last year and it's hard to write nice things about him. Bae signed for $1.25 million after having his contract with the Braves cancelled during the bonus-manipulation scandal, and he was suspended for 30 games in 2019 due to the assault. However, once he returned, he played very well, slashing .323/.403/.430 with no home runs but 31 stolen bases and a 77/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 games. Though he only turned 20 mid season, he showed great on-base ability with his contact-oriented approach and feel for the barrel. His swing is a bit similar to Ichiro's in that he often clears his body from the left handed batters box while starting towards first base, and that will likely keep him from providing much in the way of home run power. However, he finds the barrel consistently and can spray balls to the gaps, then uses his plus speed to get extra bases. Defensively, he has the tools to stick at shortstop, but he needs to refine his game there a bit. With some further development he could start at shortstop or second base for the Pirates down the line, but he'll be rightfully hard to root for as a convicted domestic abuser.
- Rodolfo Castro (2020 Age: 20-21): Castro is a bat-first second baseman who slashed .242/.298/.456 with 19 home runs and a 122/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Class A Greensboro and High A Bradenton, though he was better at the lower level (.242/.306/.516) than the higher one (.243/.288/.391). Despite an aggressive approach, he's handled advanced pitching at a young age and still doesn't turn 21 until May, giving him plenty of time to iron out the holes in his swing and continue to develop both in the on-base and power departments as a switch hitter with a quick bat. Defensively, he's pretty unspectacular and may end up at second or third base, where he should be adequate but a bit below average. It's probably a bat-first utility infielder profile unless he really breaks out with that bat.
- Keep an eye on: Stephen Alemais, Connor Kaiser, Ethan Paul
Outfield
- Jason Martin (2020 Age: 24): One of the four players acquired in the ill-advised Gerrit Cole trade, and he reached the majors and slashed .250/.325/.306 in 20 games there this year. He spent most of the season at AAA Indianapolis, where he slashed .259/.312/.419 with eight home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 79/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games. Despite standing only 5'9", he's a quality athlete with a little bit of power and good speed, though those who doubted him because of his height may turn out to be right as his bat looks like it lacks the thump to land him in a starting role. With his speed, he should be a solid left fielder who can handle center if needed, and that gives him a fourth outfielder projection.
- Travis Swaggerty (2020 Age: 22): Swaggerty capped off a very productive career at the University of South Alabama with a first round selection in the 2018 draft, though his numbers in his first full season were just adequate. In 121 games at High A Bradenton, he slashed .265/.347/.381 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 116/57 strikeout to walk ratio, though the Florida State League is known to be pitcher-friendly. Though he's just 5'11", he packs a lot of strength into his frame and should be able to hit 15-20 home runs annually at the major league level, if not more if he finds the barrel more. He also has good feel for the barrel and with his patient approach, he should be able to post good on-base percentages at the major league level, where he can use his speed to steal some bases. A good defender in center field, Swaggerty can impact the game in a lot of ways, though he'll need to prove just how much impact he can provide after an unspectacular run through High A. Age is on his side, as he was young for a college junior when he was drafted and he only turned 21 at the end of the minor league season, when he'd already played over 100 games at High A.
- Jared Oliva (2020 Age: 24): Oliva has been a consistently decent hitter throughout his time in the Pirates system and indeed even dating back to his time at Arizona, where he was a seventh round pick in 2017. In 2019, Oliva slashed .277/.352/.398 with six home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 104/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games, standing out for his speed and his feel for the barrel. A great baserunner, he's now stolen 84 bases in 287 games as a pro, and he's been able to produce good gap power and a bit of home run power as he's moved up through the minors. I have a hard time pegging him as a starter due to the lack of real home run power as well as good-not-great defense that has kept him in center field for now, but his profile does fit really well as a fourth outfielder and I like him better for that role than Jason Martin.
- Cal Mitchell (2020 Age: 21): Mitchell has been a bit enigmatic as a prospect, looking like a potential first round pick for the 2017 draft before a rough senior season at his San Diego high school dropped him to the second round. He then hit well at Class A in 2018 (.280/.344/.427) and set himself up nicely at Bradenton this year, where he slashed .251/.304/.406 with 15 home runs and a 142/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games alongside Swaggerty in that Marauder outfield. His natural strength and feel for the barrel could help him hit 20 home runs annually in the majors, though his aggressive approach at the plate gives him some swing and miss and really limits his walks, so he'll have to continue to work to find better pitches to hit so he can get to his power. Defensively, he's just adequate in left field, so it's that 20 homer/decent on-base percentage upside that will carry him through the minors.
- Lolo Sanchez (2020 Age: 21): Kevin Sanchez, better known by his great nickname Lolo, tore it up at Class A Greensboro this year by slashing .301/.377/.451 with four home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 28/17 strikeout to walk ratio in 61 games before a promotion to High A Bradenton. He didn't hit nearly as well there, slashing just .196/.300/.270 with one home run, 13 stolen bases, and a 31/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games, but at least he maintained his great plate discipline. Sanchez is a contact hitter who rarely strikes out and draws his fair share of walks, then uses his speed on the bases. However he lacks a ton of impact with the bat, and he'll need to drive the ball more against advanced pitching if he wants to start at the major league level eventually. Defensively, he's good in center field and that takes some pressure off his bat.
- Matt Gorski (2020 Age: 22): The Pirates took Gorski out of Indiana with their second round pick in 2019, though I think that was a bit of an overdraft. Gorski is a great athlete who had a big sophomore season in 2018 before slumping a bit in 2019, then he slashed .223/.297/.346 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 48/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games at short season West Virginia. He has some power at 6'4", though he hasn't tapped it consistently and it's mostly projection at this point. He also has speed and a strong arm, giving him all the physical tools he needs to succeed, though he might not have the best pure feel for the game and might not move as quickly as the typical college bat. It's kind of a boom/bust profile, which is more common in high school draftees.
- Sammy Siani (2020 Age: 18): The younger brother of Reds prospect Mike Siani, Sammy was drafted in the competitive balance round out of a Philadelphia high school in 2019. In his pro debut, he slashed .241/.372/.308 with a 41/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, showing a patient approach and really smooth, uppercut swing that has yet to start producing real power. The Pirates believe that power will come, as he has very good feel for the barrel already and his swing is conducive to home runs, so we'll have to see how he handles his first full pro season. If all breaks right, he could hit 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and decent outfield defense, though he comes with his share of risk.
- Keep an eye on: Bligh Madris, Chris Sharpe, Jonah Davis, Jack Herman, Blake Sabol, Matthew Fraizer, Conner Uselton
Starting Pitching
- Mitch Keller (2020 Age: 24): Keller was a second round pick out of a Cedar Rapids, Iowa high school in 2014, and he's dominated throughout his minor league career. In 2019, he posted a 3.56 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 123/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 103.2 innings at AAA Indianapolis, where he did well to shut down offenses despite the juiced baseballs. He didn't fare as well in his eleven major league starts, where he had a 7.13 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP, and a 65/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 innings, just barely staying below the rookie limits. He's a 6'2" righty who comfortably sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, adding a power curveball and a changeup, all of which he commands pretty well. His ability to control the strike zone, combined with his velocity, enabled his rise through the minors, and he still controlled the zone in the majors when he wasn't getting hit. He's certainly got the talent to succeed at the major league level, and once he settles in and learns to pitch to major league hitters, he should be a solid #2 or #3 starter.
- JT Brubaker (2020 Age: 26): Brubaker was a sixth round pick out of Akron in 2016 and was a fairly unremarkable prospect until 2018, when he broke out with a 2.81 ERA and a 131/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 154 innings at AA and AAA. Expectations were high for 2019, but he lasted just six starts, four of which were at AAA Indianapolis, and he posted a 2.28 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 24/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings before going down with elbow issues. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his diving fastball and adds a pair of good breaking balls, with his hard slider being the better one. Assuming health, the only thing holding him back from being an impact starter is a good changeup, as he doesn't have much of one, but he could still cut it as a #4/#5 guy without one, and he should be major league ready pretty early into 2020. He'd also make a good fastball/slider reliever.
- Cody Bolton (2020 Age: 21-22): A sixth round pick out of high school in Tracy, California in 2017, Bolton took a huge step forward this year with High A Bradenton, where he posted a 1.61 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 69/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings. He wasn't quite as good after a promotion to AA Altoona, where he had a 5.85 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 33/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings, but in all he established himself as one of the better arms in this system. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has sharpened his slider and improved his changeup, which helped make the difference for him this year. He also has above average command, and while he's not necessarily an ace, he now looks like he could be a really solid #3 starter with just a little further refinement of those secondaries.
- Aaron Shortridge (2020 Age: 22-23): Shortridge has had an up arrow next to his name for a few years, as he successfully transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation at Cal in 2018 and that led to being drafted in the fourth round that year, where he had a successful debut in short season ball (2.67 ERA, 38/7 K/BB). The Pirates bumped him up to High A Bradenton this year, where he posted a 3.25 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 104/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.2 innings. Standing 6'3", his best attribute is his command, as he rarely hurts himself with walks and can make his stuff play up by staying ahead in the count. That stuff is just decent, as he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a mediocre curveball and changeup, and sharpening that secondary stuff just a little bit should help him work his way up as a back-end starter. If he has to move back to the bullpen, his stuff should tick up naturally and with his command, he'll be an effective reliever.
- Quinn Priester (2020 Age: 19): Cold weather high school pitchers tend to get less attention than their more developed counterparts in Florida, Texas, California, etc. that get to be outside much more often. Priester, however, used that to his advantage in the Chicago area, as he taught himself to pitch and used the cold weather to prove his toughness, looking sharp in his cold, windy, and rainy starts this past spring. The 6'3" righty went to the Pirates in the first round this year and posted a 3.19 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 41/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.2 innings in complex ball and one start at short season West Virginia. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a big, swing and miss curveball, as well as a solid changeup and command. He'll need further development, as is expected for a high school draftee, but he's a hard worker who really understands pitching, which should help him towards his ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter. He also may move quicker than the typical high school arm.
- Tahnaj Thomas (2020 Age: 20-21): Thomas, a product of the Bahamas, was acquired for Jordan Luplow last offseason and had a successful 2019, posting a 3.17 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 59/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.1 innings at rookie level Bristol. He's a great athlete and very projectable at 6'4", and his quick arm produces low to mid 90's fastballs and a slider ball with good depth. He's still refining his command but he's not necessarily wild, and he should be able to get to average or a tick above in that regard in time. He doesn't have much of a changeup at this point, so developing that will be key for him if he wants to remain a starter. He does profile well as a fastball/slider reliever, and that should be a good fallback for him.
- Braxton Ashcraft (2020 Age: 20): Ashcraft is the prototypical power Texas right hander, coming in at 6'5" and having been drafted in the second round in 2018 out of high school in Waco. He's yet to really get it going, and he posted a 5.77 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 39/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings at short season West Virginia, his lack of refinement as a pitcher doing him in against short season opponents. He sits fairly easily in the low 90's with his fastball, and he has a ton of projection and room to add more velocity with his athleticism. He also adds a good slider, but to this point, he's been hit harder than his stuff says that he should because he's still learning how to pitch rather than just throw. He's got the potential to be a mid rotation starter, but it'll take time and there's a lot of risk.
- Santiago Florez (2020 Age: 19-20): Florez is all projection at this point, but the Colombian teenager just looks like a pitcher. Reaching rookie level Bristol this year, he posted a 3.46 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 36/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.2 innings, an unremarkable stat line until you actually watch him pitch. Standing 6'5", he has an explosive right arm that pumps fastballs in the low to mid 90's and adds a big, looping curveball with great shape that he'll need to add some bite on. He still doesn't have much of a changeup or much command, so he comes with significant reliever risk, where he could develop into a back of the bullpen force with a little luck. He turns 20 in May and will be one to track.
- Keep an eye on: James Marvel, Pedro Vasquez, Max Kranick, Osvaldo Bido, Steven Jennings, Nicholas Economos
Relief Pitching
- Travis McGregor (2020 Age: 22): MacGregor is technically still a starter, but with significant work to do on his secondaries and all the injury trouble he's had, his most likely destination is the bullpen. The Pirates' second round pick in 2016 out of a Tampa-area high school, he had a breakout 2018 in which he posted a 3.18 ERA and an 80/22 strikeout to walk ratio but went down with Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2019. A 6'3" righty, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and drops in a solid changeup, but his breaking ball is soft at this point and won't work if he wants to start in the higher levels. His stuff could tick up in shorter spurts and he'll be able to rely a bit more heavily on his hard fastball, though we of course need to see how he returns in a hopefully healthy 2020.
- J.C. Flowers (2020 Age: 21-22): Flowers was a two-way player at Florida State and served as FSU's closer, but the Pirates deployed him as a starter at short season West Virginia after drafting him in the fourth round this year. There, he had a 4.30 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 24/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.1 innings, not bad numbers for a converted reliever starting straight out in the New York-Penn League. He's very new to pitching and already sits in the low 90's while adding a solid slider and changeup, and the Pirates hope to develop him as a potential back-end starter with some untapped upside. If things don't work out, he has experience in the bullpen and could do well there, and the Pirates also have not ruled out transitioning him back to the outfield, where he has some speed and power.
- Keep an eye on: Luis Escobar, Montana DuRapau, Blake Cederlind
Showing posts with label Travis Swaggerty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Travis Swaggerty. Show all posts
Friday, December 6, 2019
Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Reviewing the Pittsburgh Pirates Farm System
The Pirates' system isn't very deep, but it has quite a few exciting prospects at the top, most notably starting pitcher Mitch Keller. Aside from Keller, it's pretty hitter-heavy, especially now with Shane Baz dealt to the Rays. Among those hitters, the Pirates have all the bases covered with power bats, on-base guys, outfielders, infielders, etc. The system is fairly average overall, though it could have been better if the Pirates had gotten more in the Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen trades.
Affiliates: AAA Indianapolis Indians, AA Altoona Curve, High A Bradenton Marauders, Class A West Virginia Power*, Short Season West Virginia Black Bears, rookie level Bristol Pirates, complex level GCL and DSL Pirates
*Class A Affiliate will move from Charleston, WV to Greensboro, NC in 2019
The Headliner: RHP Mitch Keller
22 year old Mitch Keller is the most important player in this farm system for multiple reasons. First off, he's their best prospect by a good margin, but in a system that really lacks in pitching depth, Keller keeps it from being completely empty on that front. In 2018, he went 12-4 with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 135/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 142.1 innings at High A Bradenton, AA Altoona, and AAA Indianapolis, dominating the two lower levels before holding his own at the highest. He throws mid 90's with a good curveball, a decent changeup, and great command, looking like a good bet to become a future #2 starter on the right days. On the wrong days, his command can still get away from him, but those days are not common and he should be ready for the major league rotation early in 2019, perhaps even on Opening Day. I don't think he ends up an ace but he should be an immediate contributor and should hold down a #2 or #3 spot in the rotation for a long time.
High Minors Infielders: 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes, 1B Will Craig, 2B Kevin Newman, 2B Kevin Kramer, SS Cole Tucker, and SS Stephen Alemais
This is by far the deepest contingent in the Pirates' farm system. They have plenty of AA and AAA infielders who will be ready in 2019, and they should have no problem plugging holes there from their farm system. The biggest name among them is 21 year old Ke'Bryan Hayes, a third baseman with a major league ready bat already. In 2018, he slashed .293/.375/.444 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 84/57 strikeout to walk ratio in 117 games at AA Altoona, showing an all around skill set that could make him a five tool player at the major league level. He has a mature approach at the plate, can steal a base, and plays great defense at third base, with the only question being his power development. He's 6'1", solidly built, and hits plenty of extra base hits, so scouts have always thought the home run power would manifest itself, but to this point it has not. If his power does not develop further, he's probably an average third baseman with a good glove, which is a win in its own right, but if he does figure out how to get the ball over the fence more often he could be a star in Pittsburgh. Across the diamond, 24 year old Will Craig hit .248/.321/.448 with 20 home runs and a 128/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at Altoona, showing plenty of power but not always getting to it. The first baseman will need to get to that power because of his limited value on defense, though right now he looks like a bench bat rather than a starter. 25 year olds Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer have a lot in common. Besides their first names and the fact that their last names make for fun Seinfeld jokes, they were drafted together in 2015 with Newman being a first round pick (19th overall) out of Arizona and Kramer coming in the second round (62nd overall) out of UCLA. Both are middle infielders known for hit over power, and both reached the majors for the first time in 2018. Newman slashed .302/.350/.407 with four home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 50/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at AAA Indianapolis, then hit .209/.247/.231 in 31 major league games. Meanwhile, Kramer slashed .311/.365/.492 with 15 home runs, 13 stolen base, and a 127/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at Indianapolis, then .135/.175/.135 in 21 major league games. Newman has the steadier glove and is more likely to stick at shortstop, while Kramer is more likely a second baseman. At the plate, Newman makes better contact and is more likely to hit in the majors, but Kramer had a power outburst at AAA in 2018 and posted better overall numbers. I think that Newman is a better bet to be a solid utility man for the Pirates, while Kramer might break through as a starter or end up bouncing between AAA and the majors as a journeyman. 22 year old Cole Tucker has a similar profile to both, but he's younger and doesn't share a Kevin or Seinfeld connection. Tucker was a high school draftee in 2014, coming out of a Phoenix high school in the first round (24th overall) and working his way up relatively slowly. In 2018, he slashed .259/.333/.356 with five home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 104/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Altoona, showing off great speed like Newman as well as a very competent glove at shortstop. However, his bat is a bit light, and while he is good at drawing walks, he probably ends up a utility infielder if he doesn't add at least a little bit of punch. However, if he can keep his on-base percentages high enough to allow him to steal a lot of bases, he could squeeze his way into a starting lineup even without power. Lastly, 23 year old Stephen Alemais is definitely a utility prospect, having slashed .279/.346/.346 with a home run, 16 stolen bases, and a 69/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Altoona. His skill set is similar to Newman's overall, with a good glove for shortstop and a very good approach, but he has even less sock in his bat than Newman with virtually no power. His glove will get him to the majors, but he'll have to get on base to stay there as a utility glove.
And Four Outfielders: Bryan Reynolds, Jason Martin, Jared Oliva, and Tyler Gaffney
There are four upper level outfielders to track, and all are recent additions to the system. 23 year old Bryan Reynolds, who came over in the Andrew McCutchen trade, had a decent year at AA Altoona by slashing .302/.381/.438 with seven home runs and a 73/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games, showing an advanced approach and the ability to barrel the ball up and get on base, but with fringy power. He could push his way to a starting spot if he continues to post high on-base percentages like he has been in the minors, but somehow adding more power will be the best way to crack the everyday lineup. Otherwise, he's likely a fourth outfielder, albeit a good one. 23 year old Jason Martin came over in the Gerrit Cole trade, ironically having attended the same Los Angeles-area high school as Cole. He had a good year in the upper minors, slashing .274/.337/.429 with 13 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 113/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Altoona and AAA Indianapolis. He was much better at Altoona (.325/.392/.522) than at Indianapolis (.211/.270/.319), which is a bit worrisome but which could also be ironed out with more reps in 2019. Like Reynolds, he looks like a fourth outfielder for now but could push his way to starting if he can make adjustments at the plate and carry his consistent hard contact up to the next level. 23 year old Jared Oliva was just drafted in the seventh round out of Arizona in 2017, but he made a bit of a name for himself with a solid season this year at High A Bradenton, slashing .275/.354/.424 with nine home runs, 33 stolen bases, and a 91/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games. He's kind of a fringy hitter both in terms of contact and power, but he can draw a walk and steal a base, making him an average overall offensive contributor. He's also average on defense, playing a decent center field, so he could work his way up to the majors as a fourth outfielder. Unlike Reynolds and Martin, though, I think it's unlikely that he manages to grab a starting role. Lastly, 27 year old Tyler Gaffney isn't exactly a conventional prospect, having spent the 2014-2017 seasons bouncing around NFL practice squads and injured reserve lists as a running back, technically winning Super Bowls XLIX and LI without actually playing a game. Now he's back in baseball, and he slashed .244/.353/.388 with six home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 54/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at High A Bradenton and Altoona. He's unlikely to make an impact on the Pirates, but he's an interesting story to watch.
Lower Level Hitters: 3B Oneil Cruz, OF Travis Swaggerty, OF Calvin Mitchell, OF Lolo Sanchez, OF Conner Uselton, and OF Brett Kinneman
The Pirates have a good amount of high ceiling talent down at the bottom of the system, though aside from Swaggerty, they all have high bust potential. You typically like depth this low in the system, though while the Pirates don't have that, at least there are quite a few with high ceilings. 20 year old Oneil Cruz is one of the most exciting prospects in the system, having just slashed .286/.343/.488 with 14 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 100/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at Class A West Virginia. He has a pretty unique prospect profile, with a recent growth spurt leaving him at 6'6" and potentially forcing him to move off of shortstop. He's still very athletic for his size, but the growth spurt affects his hitting as well. His fairly advanced approach allowed him to handle Class A pitching very well as a teenager this past season, and his big swing produced 46 extra base hits (including 14 home runs). However, he still swings and misses a lot because of the length of his swing, so he'll have to continue to tighten it up as he gets more coordinated. The ceiling is exceptional here, as he could end up an impact player both on offense and defense, but the risk is high as well. 21 year old Travis Swaggerty was just drafted in the first round (10th overall) out of South Alabama in 2018, slashing a respectable .239/.322/.383 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 58/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games in short season ball and at Class A. Though he's just 5'11", he has nice power as well as a patient approach at the plate, which will bode well for him both in the on-base percentage and slugging percentage departments, plus his speed enables him to steal bases and play a good center field. Overall, he has five-tool upside, and with his patient, a advanced approach, his only real downside is in the strikeout department. Keeping his strikeouts down, which is not a given, will help him be a potential All Star in the majors, and he has a fairly high floor as a fourth outfielder. 19 year old Calvin Mitchell surprised some evaluators with a good year with Class A West Virginia this year, slashing .280/.344/.427 with ten home runs and a 109/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games. He was at one point considered a potential first round pick in 2017 before a rough spring dropped him to the second round (50th overall), where the Pirates took him with hopes of getting him back on the right track. His solid performance in Class A as a teenager showed that he is, though the Pirates do want that power to develop because he's not great defensively in the outfield. If the power does develop, he could end up a starter in Pittsburgh, but if it doesn't, or if it causes him to strike out more, there is bust risk at the higher levels. 19 year old Lolo Sanchez is a bit more under the radar than the 6'6" shortstop and high draft picks ahead of him on this list, but he's a solid sleeper prospect with breakout potential for 2019. This year, he slashed .243/.322/.328 with four home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 72/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Class A West Virginia, playing good outfield defense along the way. His stats don't stand out, but he doesn't turn 20 until April, by which time he'll already be in High A, and he seems to have a good grasp of handling older pitching. Though he lacks power, the rest of his game is pretty advanced and those guys can sneak up on you when they reach the majors. 20 year old Conner Uselton has a similar profile to Mitchell, though he has been slow in getting his pro career started due to injuries. In 2018, he slashed .225/.280/.250 with a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 43 games at rookie level Bristol, making it more or less a lost season for him. Once he gets healthy and going in 2019, he has a chance to show off some of the best raw power in the system, though he will have to watch his strikeouts. Consider him a wild card at this point, one who could shake off the slow start and end up being a 30 homer bat in the majors or who could end up fizzling out in A ball. Lastly, I'm a fan of 22 year old Brett Kinneman, a seventh round pick out of NC State in 2018 who slashed .253/.344/.413 with four home runs and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games in short season ball. He has some strikeout issues and isn't as polished as some other prospects his age, but he has a ton of power, draws plenty of walks, and could be a sleeper prospect who opens eyes in 2019. Keep an eye on him.
The Pitchers After Keller: LHP Brandon Waddell, RHP Clay Holmes, RHP Luis Escobar, RHP Travis MacGregor, RHP Steven Jennings, and RHP Braxton Ashcraft
It's a good thing that the Pirates have Mitch Keller, because otherwise, there really isn't much pitching depth in this system. Some guys near the top look like they could be marginal contributors, while others in the middle come with some upside and risk but aren't anything exciting yet, and the only other impact prospect beyond Keller was Shane Baz, who was traded to Tampa in the Chris Archer deal. It also doesn't help that they have failed to sign two high draft picks over the last couple of seasons, including 2016 41st overall pick Nick Lodolo and 2018 36th overall pick Gunnar Hoglund, who are now pitching at TCU and Ole Miss, respectively. We'll start with 24 year old Brandon Waddell, a starter who posted a 3.59 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 103/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.1 innings between AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis, performing better at the lower level (2.68 ERA) than at the higher one (4.19 ERA). The 6'3" lefty is a pretty average pitcher across the board, showing a low 90's fastball with a decent slider and changeup that he controls well enough, making him a candidate to be a #5 starter in the majors but not much more. He could be up in 2019, and if he doesn't make the rotation, the Pirates may be inclined to use him as a long reliever. 25 year old Clay Holmes is a slightly different pitcher, having posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 108/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings, all but six of which came with Indianapolis. He also threw 26.1 major league innings, posting a 6.84 ERA and an ugly 21/23 strikeout to walk ratio along the way. Holmes doesn't throw all that hard either, but his fastball has movement and he can turn it into a cutter when he wants to, though the rest of his stuff, like Waddell's, is average. I think he ends up a reliever, where his stuff can jump a little, and he could contribute from that role in 2019. Behind Waddell and Holmes is 22 year old Luis Escobar, who posted a 4.14 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 110/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 128.1 innings between High A Bradenton and Altoona. His stuff is better than both Waddell's and Holmes', with his fastball sitting comfortably in the low 90's and hitting the mid 90's and his curveball featuring more power. However, his strike throwing ability has not come along yet, so that will be the next step in developing as a starter. If not, he could make a pretty good reliever, but the upside is a little higher than the two names above him on this list. 21 year old Travis MacGregor had a nice season, posting a 3.18 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 80/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings, mostly at Class A West Virginia. He throws just as hard if not harder than Escobar, though the rest of his game is pretty raw and he'll need to improve his secondary stuff as he climbs the ladder. He's another pitcher in the "starter for now, possibly a reliever later" group. However, we'll have to wait to find out because he'll miss 2019 with Tommy John surgery. 20 year old Steven Jennings, a second round pick (42nd overall) out of a Tennessee high school in 2017, has been slow to get things going in the minors, posting a 4.82 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a 53/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings at rookie level Bristol. Ironically, he's a more complete pitcher than perhaps any name above him on this list except for Waddell, throwing in the low 90's with a full assortment of secondary pitches, all of which he can command reasonably well. However, he hasn't been able to turn anything into a weapon yet, hence his struggles in the Appalachian League, so the Pirates will have to continue to work with him to ensure he can continue to learn to use what he has to keep hitters off balance. 19 year old Braxton Ashcraft was just drafted in the second round (51st overall) out of a Waco high school in 2018, just getting his start with a 4.58 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.2 innings in complex ball. He throws a good fastball/slider combination, and at 6'5" he's projectable enough to add more velocity, but obviously he is young and raw and will need time to develop. There is mid rotation starter upside but of course plenty of risk.
Affiliates: AAA Indianapolis Indians, AA Altoona Curve, High A Bradenton Marauders, Class A West Virginia Power*, Short Season West Virginia Black Bears, rookie level Bristol Pirates, complex level GCL and DSL Pirates
*Class A Affiliate will move from Charleston, WV to Greensboro, NC in 2019
The Headliner: RHP Mitch Keller
22 year old Mitch Keller is the most important player in this farm system for multiple reasons. First off, he's their best prospect by a good margin, but in a system that really lacks in pitching depth, Keller keeps it from being completely empty on that front. In 2018, he went 12-4 with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 135/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 142.1 innings at High A Bradenton, AA Altoona, and AAA Indianapolis, dominating the two lower levels before holding his own at the highest. He throws mid 90's with a good curveball, a decent changeup, and great command, looking like a good bet to become a future #2 starter on the right days. On the wrong days, his command can still get away from him, but those days are not common and he should be ready for the major league rotation early in 2019, perhaps even on Opening Day. I don't think he ends up an ace but he should be an immediate contributor and should hold down a #2 or #3 spot in the rotation for a long time.
High Minors Infielders: 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes, 1B Will Craig, 2B Kevin Newman, 2B Kevin Kramer, SS Cole Tucker, and SS Stephen Alemais
This is by far the deepest contingent in the Pirates' farm system. They have plenty of AA and AAA infielders who will be ready in 2019, and they should have no problem plugging holes there from their farm system. The biggest name among them is 21 year old Ke'Bryan Hayes, a third baseman with a major league ready bat already. In 2018, he slashed .293/.375/.444 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 84/57 strikeout to walk ratio in 117 games at AA Altoona, showing an all around skill set that could make him a five tool player at the major league level. He has a mature approach at the plate, can steal a base, and plays great defense at third base, with the only question being his power development. He's 6'1", solidly built, and hits plenty of extra base hits, so scouts have always thought the home run power would manifest itself, but to this point it has not. If his power does not develop further, he's probably an average third baseman with a good glove, which is a win in its own right, but if he does figure out how to get the ball over the fence more often he could be a star in Pittsburgh. Across the diamond, 24 year old Will Craig hit .248/.321/.448 with 20 home runs and a 128/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at Altoona, showing plenty of power but not always getting to it. The first baseman will need to get to that power because of his limited value on defense, though right now he looks like a bench bat rather than a starter. 25 year olds Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer have a lot in common. Besides their first names and the fact that their last names make for fun Seinfeld jokes, they were drafted together in 2015 with Newman being a first round pick (19th overall) out of Arizona and Kramer coming in the second round (62nd overall) out of UCLA. Both are middle infielders known for hit over power, and both reached the majors for the first time in 2018. Newman slashed .302/.350/.407 with four home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 50/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at AAA Indianapolis, then hit .209/.247/.231 in 31 major league games. Meanwhile, Kramer slashed .311/.365/.492 with 15 home runs, 13 stolen base, and a 127/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at Indianapolis, then .135/.175/.135 in 21 major league games. Newman has the steadier glove and is more likely to stick at shortstop, while Kramer is more likely a second baseman. At the plate, Newman makes better contact and is more likely to hit in the majors, but Kramer had a power outburst at AAA in 2018 and posted better overall numbers. I think that Newman is a better bet to be a solid utility man for the Pirates, while Kramer might break through as a starter or end up bouncing between AAA and the majors as a journeyman. 22 year old Cole Tucker has a similar profile to both, but he's younger and doesn't share a Kevin or Seinfeld connection. Tucker was a high school draftee in 2014, coming out of a Phoenix high school in the first round (24th overall) and working his way up relatively slowly. In 2018, he slashed .259/.333/.356 with five home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 104/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Altoona, showing off great speed like Newman as well as a very competent glove at shortstop. However, his bat is a bit light, and while he is good at drawing walks, he probably ends up a utility infielder if he doesn't add at least a little bit of punch. However, if he can keep his on-base percentages high enough to allow him to steal a lot of bases, he could squeeze his way into a starting lineup even without power. Lastly, 23 year old Stephen Alemais is definitely a utility prospect, having slashed .279/.346/.346 with a home run, 16 stolen bases, and a 69/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Altoona. His skill set is similar to Newman's overall, with a good glove for shortstop and a very good approach, but he has even less sock in his bat than Newman with virtually no power. His glove will get him to the majors, but he'll have to get on base to stay there as a utility glove.
And Four Outfielders: Bryan Reynolds, Jason Martin, Jared Oliva, and Tyler Gaffney
There are four upper level outfielders to track, and all are recent additions to the system. 23 year old Bryan Reynolds, who came over in the Andrew McCutchen trade, had a decent year at AA Altoona by slashing .302/.381/.438 with seven home runs and a 73/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games, showing an advanced approach and the ability to barrel the ball up and get on base, but with fringy power. He could push his way to a starting spot if he continues to post high on-base percentages like he has been in the minors, but somehow adding more power will be the best way to crack the everyday lineup. Otherwise, he's likely a fourth outfielder, albeit a good one. 23 year old Jason Martin came over in the Gerrit Cole trade, ironically having attended the same Los Angeles-area high school as Cole. He had a good year in the upper minors, slashing .274/.337/.429 with 13 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 113/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Altoona and AAA Indianapolis. He was much better at Altoona (.325/.392/.522) than at Indianapolis (.211/.270/.319), which is a bit worrisome but which could also be ironed out with more reps in 2019. Like Reynolds, he looks like a fourth outfielder for now but could push his way to starting if he can make adjustments at the plate and carry his consistent hard contact up to the next level. 23 year old Jared Oliva was just drafted in the seventh round out of Arizona in 2017, but he made a bit of a name for himself with a solid season this year at High A Bradenton, slashing .275/.354/.424 with nine home runs, 33 stolen bases, and a 91/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games. He's kind of a fringy hitter both in terms of contact and power, but he can draw a walk and steal a base, making him an average overall offensive contributor. He's also average on defense, playing a decent center field, so he could work his way up to the majors as a fourth outfielder. Unlike Reynolds and Martin, though, I think it's unlikely that he manages to grab a starting role. Lastly, 27 year old Tyler Gaffney isn't exactly a conventional prospect, having spent the 2014-2017 seasons bouncing around NFL practice squads and injured reserve lists as a running back, technically winning Super Bowls XLIX and LI without actually playing a game. Now he's back in baseball, and he slashed .244/.353/.388 with six home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 54/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at High A Bradenton and Altoona. He's unlikely to make an impact on the Pirates, but he's an interesting story to watch.
Lower Level Hitters: 3B Oneil Cruz, OF Travis Swaggerty, OF Calvin Mitchell, OF Lolo Sanchez, OF Conner Uselton, and OF Brett Kinneman
The Pirates have a good amount of high ceiling talent down at the bottom of the system, though aside from Swaggerty, they all have high bust potential. You typically like depth this low in the system, though while the Pirates don't have that, at least there are quite a few with high ceilings. 20 year old Oneil Cruz is one of the most exciting prospects in the system, having just slashed .286/.343/.488 with 14 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 100/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at Class A West Virginia. He has a pretty unique prospect profile, with a recent growth spurt leaving him at 6'6" and potentially forcing him to move off of shortstop. He's still very athletic for his size, but the growth spurt affects his hitting as well. His fairly advanced approach allowed him to handle Class A pitching very well as a teenager this past season, and his big swing produced 46 extra base hits (including 14 home runs). However, he still swings and misses a lot because of the length of his swing, so he'll have to continue to tighten it up as he gets more coordinated. The ceiling is exceptional here, as he could end up an impact player both on offense and defense, but the risk is high as well. 21 year old Travis Swaggerty was just drafted in the first round (10th overall) out of South Alabama in 2018, slashing a respectable .239/.322/.383 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 58/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games in short season ball and at Class A. Though he's just 5'11", he has nice power as well as a patient approach at the plate, which will bode well for him both in the on-base percentage and slugging percentage departments, plus his speed enables him to steal bases and play a good center field. Overall, he has five-tool upside, and with his patient, a advanced approach, his only real downside is in the strikeout department. Keeping his strikeouts down, which is not a given, will help him be a potential All Star in the majors, and he has a fairly high floor as a fourth outfielder. 19 year old Calvin Mitchell surprised some evaluators with a good year with Class A West Virginia this year, slashing .280/.344/.427 with ten home runs and a 109/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games. He was at one point considered a potential first round pick in 2017 before a rough spring dropped him to the second round (50th overall), where the Pirates took him with hopes of getting him back on the right track. His solid performance in Class A as a teenager showed that he is, though the Pirates do want that power to develop because he's not great defensively in the outfield. If the power does develop, he could end up a starter in Pittsburgh, but if it doesn't, or if it causes him to strike out more, there is bust risk at the higher levels. 19 year old Lolo Sanchez is a bit more under the radar than the 6'6" shortstop and high draft picks ahead of him on this list, but he's a solid sleeper prospect with breakout potential for 2019. This year, he slashed .243/.322/.328 with four home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 72/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Class A West Virginia, playing good outfield defense along the way. His stats don't stand out, but he doesn't turn 20 until April, by which time he'll already be in High A, and he seems to have a good grasp of handling older pitching. Though he lacks power, the rest of his game is pretty advanced and those guys can sneak up on you when they reach the majors. 20 year old Conner Uselton has a similar profile to Mitchell, though he has been slow in getting his pro career started due to injuries. In 2018, he slashed .225/.280/.250 with a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 43 games at rookie level Bristol, making it more or less a lost season for him. Once he gets healthy and going in 2019, he has a chance to show off some of the best raw power in the system, though he will have to watch his strikeouts. Consider him a wild card at this point, one who could shake off the slow start and end up being a 30 homer bat in the majors or who could end up fizzling out in A ball. Lastly, I'm a fan of 22 year old Brett Kinneman, a seventh round pick out of NC State in 2018 who slashed .253/.344/.413 with four home runs and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games in short season ball. He has some strikeout issues and isn't as polished as some other prospects his age, but he has a ton of power, draws plenty of walks, and could be a sleeper prospect who opens eyes in 2019. Keep an eye on him.
The Pitchers After Keller: LHP Brandon Waddell, RHP Clay Holmes, RHP Luis Escobar, RHP Travis MacGregor, RHP Steven Jennings, and RHP Braxton Ashcraft
It's a good thing that the Pirates have Mitch Keller, because otherwise, there really isn't much pitching depth in this system. Some guys near the top look like they could be marginal contributors, while others in the middle come with some upside and risk but aren't anything exciting yet, and the only other impact prospect beyond Keller was Shane Baz, who was traded to Tampa in the Chris Archer deal. It also doesn't help that they have failed to sign two high draft picks over the last couple of seasons, including 2016 41st overall pick Nick Lodolo and 2018 36th overall pick Gunnar Hoglund, who are now pitching at TCU and Ole Miss, respectively. We'll start with 24 year old Brandon Waddell, a starter who posted a 3.59 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 103/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.1 innings between AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis, performing better at the lower level (2.68 ERA) than at the higher one (4.19 ERA). The 6'3" lefty is a pretty average pitcher across the board, showing a low 90's fastball with a decent slider and changeup that he controls well enough, making him a candidate to be a #5 starter in the majors but not much more. He could be up in 2019, and if he doesn't make the rotation, the Pirates may be inclined to use him as a long reliever. 25 year old Clay Holmes is a slightly different pitcher, having posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 108/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings, all but six of which came with Indianapolis. He also threw 26.1 major league innings, posting a 6.84 ERA and an ugly 21/23 strikeout to walk ratio along the way. Holmes doesn't throw all that hard either, but his fastball has movement and he can turn it into a cutter when he wants to, though the rest of his stuff, like Waddell's, is average. I think he ends up a reliever, where his stuff can jump a little, and he could contribute from that role in 2019. Behind Waddell and Holmes is 22 year old Luis Escobar, who posted a 4.14 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 110/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 128.1 innings between High A Bradenton and Altoona. His stuff is better than both Waddell's and Holmes', with his fastball sitting comfortably in the low 90's and hitting the mid 90's and his curveball featuring more power. However, his strike throwing ability has not come along yet, so that will be the next step in developing as a starter. If not, he could make a pretty good reliever, but the upside is a little higher than the two names above him on this list. 21 year old Travis MacGregor had a nice season, posting a 3.18 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 80/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings, mostly at Class A West Virginia. He throws just as hard if not harder than Escobar, though the rest of his game is pretty raw and he'll need to improve his secondary stuff as he climbs the ladder. He's another pitcher in the "starter for now, possibly a reliever later" group. However, we'll have to wait to find out because he'll miss 2019 with Tommy John surgery. 20 year old Steven Jennings, a second round pick (42nd overall) out of a Tennessee high school in 2017, has been slow to get things going in the minors, posting a 4.82 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a 53/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings at rookie level Bristol. Ironically, he's a more complete pitcher than perhaps any name above him on this list except for Waddell, throwing in the low 90's with a full assortment of secondary pitches, all of which he can command reasonably well. However, he hasn't been able to turn anything into a weapon yet, hence his struggles in the Appalachian League, so the Pirates will have to continue to work with him to ensure he can continue to learn to use what he has to keep hitters off balance. 19 year old Braxton Ashcraft was just drafted in the second round (51st overall) out of a Waco high school in 2018, just getting his start with a 4.58 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.2 innings in complex ball. He throws a good fastball/slider combination, and at 6'5" he's projectable enough to add more velocity, but obviously he is young and raw and will need time to develop. There is mid rotation starter upside but of course plenty of risk.
Wednesday, July 11, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates
First 5 rounds: Travis Swaggerty (1-10), Gunnar Hoglund (CBA-36), Braxton Ashcraft (2-51), Connor Kaiser (3-86), Aaron Shortridge (4-114), Grant Koch (5-144)
Also notable: Michael Flynn (6-174), Brett Kinneman (7-204), Zack Kone (13-384), Jonah Davis (15-444)
The Pirates mixed up their draft both between high school and college and between hitters and pitchers. I think they drafted some nice talent, though overall I think they came away with a fairly mediocre class, especially with competitive balance pick Gunnar Hoglund choosing not to sign. With Hoglund heading to college and Travis Swaggerty more of a known commodity, it will likely be on Braxton Ashcraft to pick up the slack and make this class look good.
1-10: OF Travis Swaggerty (my rank: 8)
Swaggerty, an outfielder at South Alabama, was considered by some to be the best college hitter in the class until Florida's Jonathan India and Georgia Tech's Joey Bart passed him. Swaggerty did nothing wrong, slashing .296/.455/.526 with 13 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 38/54 strikeout to walk ratio in 57 games. Though it was down from his sophomore year (.361/.487/.567, 10 HR, 19 SB, 43/47 K/BB), the improvement of his plate discipline and power was nice to see for a guy who stands just 5'11". He's solidly built but is a great runner, covering plenty of ground in center field and stealing plenty of bases, and his above average arm makes him very valuable on defense. Swaggerty's bat is just as much a calling card as his defense, as he has shown great plate discipline (13.7% strikeout rate, 19.5% walk rate) to go along with good power and speed, having cleaned up and shortened his swing this year to cut down on those strikeouts. Even though his swing is shorter, he gained power this year, and he can really hit it for a shorter guy. There's a lot of boom in the bat and an Andrew Benintendi future is not out of the question. As a bonus, he doesn't turn 21 until August, making him one of the younger college juniors in the class. He signed for $4.4 million, which is $160,200 below slot, and he is slashing a cool .295/.354/.500 with a home run, a pair of stolen bases, and an 11/2 strikeout to walk ratio through 11 games in the short season New York-Penn League.
CBA-36: RHP Gunnar Hoglund (my rank: 40)
Hoglund, a high school pitcher from near Tampa, did not end up signing, so this paragraph will be of more interest to Ole Miss fans than to Pirates fans. Hoglund is a 6'4" righty on whom opinions vary, with some liking him in this range and others thinking he'd be better off in the second round, and I'm of the former opinion. I definitely like Hoglund and while this is pretty early in the draft, I wouldn't have minded it if they signed him. He throws his running fastball in the low to mid 90's with the potential for more, coming from a clean and easy delivery. His curve has good shape, and if he can improve its power, it can be a plus pitch as well. Third on the to-do list will be adding a changeup, and with those three pitches, he could be a #2 starter. He commands everything pretty well and his delivery bodes well for him continuing to do so, so he really does have a very realistic chance of reaching that upside. Of course, he didn't sign, and he'll go replace Ryan Rolison in the rotation for a still very talented Ole Miss Rebels team. Slot value was just under $2 million, and the Pirates won't be able to re-allocate that bonus space elsewhere.
2-51: RHP Braxton Ashcraft (my rank: 81)
Ashcraft is a 6'5" right handed high school pitcher from Robinson, Texas (just outside of Waco), and he looks just like you'd expect a guy with that description to look. As with any good central Texan, he's a former football standout as well, displaying tremendous athleticism to go with his size. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and is trending up, with mid 90's velocities easily foreseeable when all is said and done. However, the rest of his game is very much a work in progress, as his slider has good shape but not much power and his changeup isn't really there yet. He has an easy delivery and commands his pitches fairly well, though the command will have to take a step forward. Obviously by the rankings, I'm not a big fan of this pick, though I don't dislike it as much as I would for other teams. The Pirates do well with high school power pitchers, with Tyler Glasnow, Mitch Keller, Shane Baz, and Braeden Oegle performing well. Ashcraft signed for $1.825 million, which comes out to $442,600 over slot.
3-86: SS Connor Kaiser (unranked)
Most of Kaiser's value is in his glove, where he is an excellent defensive shortstop who can stick at the position all the way up to the majors. He's not a great hitter, though, as he did pretty much nothing at the plate over his first two seasons at Vanderbilt before having a moderate breakout season in 2018, slashing .293/.389/.446 with six home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 52/31 strikeout to walk ratio. He employs a big leg kick at the plate that gives him somewhat of a long swing and sometimes affects his timing, so he'll probably have to tone down the leg kick in the pros to cut down on his strikeouts. My guess is that whatever adjustments he ends up making in pro ball will sap much of his power, and he'll have to hit his way to the majors as an on-base type. Really, just as long as he provides any value on offense, he should be good to go in terms of getting to the bigs because playing a good shortstop exerts very little pressure on the bat. However, I'm not a big fan of this pick because he really has a ceiling somewhere around Alcides Escobar and that's just not enough upside for me inside the top 100 picks. He signed for $625,000, which is $48,200 below slot, and he is slashing .211/.340/.211 with a stolen base and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio through 11 games in the New York-Penn League.
5-144: C Grant Koch (unranked)
Koch, who caught for the Arkansas team that came one out away from the NCAA Championship, has been inconsistent throughout his career. He was pretty good as a sophomore (.264/.358/.498, 13 HR, 47/33 K/BB) then tore it up for Team USA over the summer (.372/.500/.535), but regressed as a junior this year (.245/.358/.375, 7 HR, 45/38 K/BB). He has a relatively slow swing and the bat take some time to get going, though he can really drive the ball when he gets into one. His swing will need to get cleaned up to catch up to pro pitching, and his pretty good plate discipline (17.3% strikeout rate, 14.6% walk rate) should help him with that transition. Behind the plate, he has gotten better and should be able to stick back there as an average defender, taking some pressure off the bat. Overall, it's a backup catcher profile, and he signed right at slot for $364,600. Through a pair of games in the New York-Penn League, he is hitless in six games but has drawn three walks without striking out.
7-204: OF Brett Kinneman (unranked)
I had the chance to watch Kinneman over a three game series at Virginia Tech and came away impressed, and you can read about that here. He's may be a college pick, but he seems to me to fit the high ceiling, low floor mold. The NC State outfielder had an up and down season, finishing with an overall .274/.392/.581 line, 17 home runs, and a 65/46 strikeout to walk ratio in 60 games, showing easy power but room for improvement in his approach. Kinneman has easy power from a clean swing, showing the ability to really put a charge into baseballs without selling out at all. However, he does have a tendency to chase, leading to a 23% strikeout rate this year, though he also draws his share of walks with a 16.2% walk rate. Kinneman's clean power gives him the chance to be a 20-30 homer bat in the majors, and refining his approach will be the key to doing so. It's a great get in the seventh round, and he signed at slot for $215,500. Through 18 games in the New York-Penn League, he's slashing .279/.405/.328 with an 18/13 strikeout to walk ratio and no home runs yet.
Others: 4th rounder Aaron Shortridge comes from Cal-Berkeley, having finished his junior year 5-3 with a 2.77 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 74/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. It was the 6'3" righty's first year as a starter and he took well to it, and the Pirates are keeping him as a starter so far in pro ball. I don't have velocity data on him but he throws from an easy delivery which should be conducive to maintaining his stuff and command throughout starts, and he could gain some more velocity by channeling his delivery more on-line to the plate. His curve looks average right now but could improve in time. 6th rounder Michael Flynn is not the same guy who has been in and out of courtrooms in Washington, D.C., rather he's a right handed pitcher out of Arizona. With the Wildcats this year, he went 6-5 with a 4.89 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 72/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings, though his stuff is better than that. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and adds a couple of breaking balls, and his changeup is pretty good as well. The numbers might have been poorer due to the lack of movement on his fastball, and he also ran into trouble when he left pitches over the plate to get hit, as his control is ahead of his command at this point. He could end up being a back-end starter. 13th rounder Zack Kone comes from Duke, where he had his best year this year by slashing .300/.359/.449 with five home runs and a 40/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. He played shortstop there, but may be forced over to second base if he can't improve his defense. If he can, it will buy his bat time to develop, and he could end up as a solid utility man at the major league level. To get there though, he'll have to improve his plate discipline and draw a few more walks. 15th rounder Jonah Davis is another Cal Golden Bear who had a breakout year this year, slashing .321/.446/.606 with 14 home runs and a 75/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 54 games. Clearly, the power is there (even at 5'10"), but also clearly, he strikes out way too much. Pro pitching will eat him up if he doesn't become more refined at the plate (31% strikeout rate will only get higher in pro ball if something doesn't change), but being a relatively speedy center fielder, he will hold onto his prospect status as long as he sticks in center and keeps hitting home runs.
Also notable: Michael Flynn (6-174), Brett Kinneman (7-204), Zack Kone (13-384), Jonah Davis (15-444)
The Pirates mixed up their draft both between high school and college and between hitters and pitchers. I think they drafted some nice talent, though overall I think they came away with a fairly mediocre class, especially with competitive balance pick Gunnar Hoglund choosing not to sign. With Hoglund heading to college and Travis Swaggerty more of a known commodity, it will likely be on Braxton Ashcraft to pick up the slack and make this class look good.
1-10: OF Travis Swaggerty (my rank: 8)
Swaggerty, an outfielder at South Alabama, was considered by some to be the best college hitter in the class until Florida's Jonathan India and Georgia Tech's Joey Bart passed him. Swaggerty did nothing wrong, slashing .296/.455/.526 with 13 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 38/54 strikeout to walk ratio in 57 games. Though it was down from his sophomore year (.361/.487/.567, 10 HR, 19 SB, 43/47 K/BB), the improvement of his plate discipline and power was nice to see for a guy who stands just 5'11". He's solidly built but is a great runner, covering plenty of ground in center field and stealing plenty of bases, and his above average arm makes him very valuable on defense. Swaggerty's bat is just as much a calling card as his defense, as he has shown great plate discipline (13.7% strikeout rate, 19.5% walk rate) to go along with good power and speed, having cleaned up and shortened his swing this year to cut down on those strikeouts. Even though his swing is shorter, he gained power this year, and he can really hit it for a shorter guy. There's a lot of boom in the bat and an Andrew Benintendi future is not out of the question. As a bonus, he doesn't turn 21 until August, making him one of the younger college juniors in the class. He signed for $4.4 million, which is $160,200 below slot, and he is slashing a cool .295/.354/.500 with a home run, a pair of stolen bases, and an 11/2 strikeout to walk ratio through 11 games in the short season New York-Penn League.
CBA-36: RHP Gunnar Hoglund (my rank: 40)
Hoglund, a high school pitcher from near Tampa, did not end up signing, so this paragraph will be of more interest to Ole Miss fans than to Pirates fans. Hoglund is a 6'4" righty on whom opinions vary, with some liking him in this range and others thinking he'd be better off in the second round, and I'm of the former opinion. I definitely like Hoglund and while this is pretty early in the draft, I wouldn't have minded it if they signed him. He throws his running fastball in the low to mid 90's with the potential for more, coming from a clean and easy delivery. His curve has good shape, and if he can improve its power, it can be a plus pitch as well. Third on the to-do list will be adding a changeup, and with those three pitches, he could be a #2 starter. He commands everything pretty well and his delivery bodes well for him continuing to do so, so he really does have a very realistic chance of reaching that upside. Of course, he didn't sign, and he'll go replace Ryan Rolison in the rotation for a still very talented Ole Miss Rebels team. Slot value was just under $2 million, and the Pirates won't be able to re-allocate that bonus space elsewhere.
2-51: RHP Braxton Ashcraft (my rank: 81)
Ashcraft is a 6'5" right handed high school pitcher from Robinson, Texas (just outside of Waco), and he looks just like you'd expect a guy with that description to look. As with any good central Texan, he's a former football standout as well, displaying tremendous athleticism to go with his size. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and is trending up, with mid 90's velocities easily foreseeable when all is said and done. However, the rest of his game is very much a work in progress, as his slider has good shape but not much power and his changeup isn't really there yet. He has an easy delivery and commands his pitches fairly well, though the command will have to take a step forward. Obviously by the rankings, I'm not a big fan of this pick, though I don't dislike it as much as I would for other teams. The Pirates do well with high school power pitchers, with Tyler Glasnow, Mitch Keller, Shane Baz, and Braeden Oegle performing well. Ashcraft signed for $1.825 million, which comes out to $442,600 over slot.
3-86: SS Connor Kaiser (unranked)
Most of Kaiser's value is in his glove, where he is an excellent defensive shortstop who can stick at the position all the way up to the majors. He's not a great hitter, though, as he did pretty much nothing at the plate over his first two seasons at Vanderbilt before having a moderate breakout season in 2018, slashing .293/.389/.446 with six home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 52/31 strikeout to walk ratio. He employs a big leg kick at the plate that gives him somewhat of a long swing and sometimes affects his timing, so he'll probably have to tone down the leg kick in the pros to cut down on his strikeouts. My guess is that whatever adjustments he ends up making in pro ball will sap much of his power, and he'll have to hit his way to the majors as an on-base type. Really, just as long as he provides any value on offense, he should be good to go in terms of getting to the bigs because playing a good shortstop exerts very little pressure on the bat. However, I'm not a big fan of this pick because he really has a ceiling somewhere around Alcides Escobar and that's just not enough upside for me inside the top 100 picks. He signed for $625,000, which is $48,200 below slot, and he is slashing .211/.340/.211 with a stolen base and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio through 11 games in the New York-Penn League.
5-144: C Grant Koch (unranked)
Koch, who caught for the Arkansas team that came one out away from the NCAA Championship, has been inconsistent throughout his career. He was pretty good as a sophomore (.264/.358/.498, 13 HR, 47/33 K/BB) then tore it up for Team USA over the summer (.372/.500/.535), but regressed as a junior this year (.245/.358/.375, 7 HR, 45/38 K/BB). He has a relatively slow swing and the bat take some time to get going, though he can really drive the ball when he gets into one. His swing will need to get cleaned up to catch up to pro pitching, and his pretty good plate discipline (17.3% strikeout rate, 14.6% walk rate) should help him with that transition. Behind the plate, he has gotten better and should be able to stick back there as an average defender, taking some pressure off the bat. Overall, it's a backup catcher profile, and he signed right at slot for $364,600. Through a pair of games in the New York-Penn League, he is hitless in six games but has drawn three walks without striking out.
7-204: OF Brett Kinneman (unranked)
I had the chance to watch Kinneman over a three game series at Virginia Tech and came away impressed, and you can read about that here. He's may be a college pick, but he seems to me to fit the high ceiling, low floor mold. The NC State outfielder had an up and down season, finishing with an overall .274/.392/.581 line, 17 home runs, and a 65/46 strikeout to walk ratio in 60 games, showing easy power but room for improvement in his approach. Kinneman has easy power from a clean swing, showing the ability to really put a charge into baseballs without selling out at all. However, he does have a tendency to chase, leading to a 23% strikeout rate this year, though he also draws his share of walks with a 16.2% walk rate. Kinneman's clean power gives him the chance to be a 20-30 homer bat in the majors, and refining his approach will be the key to doing so. It's a great get in the seventh round, and he signed at slot for $215,500. Through 18 games in the New York-Penn League, he's slashing .279/.405/.328 with an 18/13 strikeout to walk ratio and no home runs yet.
Others: 4th rounder Aaron Shortridge comes from Cal-Berkeley, having finished his junior year 5-3 with a 2.77 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 74/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. It was the 6'3" righty's first year as a starter and he took well to it, and the Pirates are keeping him as a starter so far in pro ball. I don't have velocity data on him but he throws from an easy delivery which should be conducive to maintaining his stuff and command throughout starts, and he could gain some more velocity by channeling his delivery more on-line to the plate. His curve looks average right now but could improve in time. 6th rounder Michael Flynn is not the same guy who has been in and out of courtrooms in Washington, D.C., rather he's a right handed pitcher out of Arizona. With the Wildcats this year, he went 6-5 with a 4.89 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 72/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings, though his stuff is better than that. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and adds a couple of breaking balls, and his changeup is pretty good as well. The numbers might have been poorer due to the lack of movement on his fastball, and he also ran into trouble when he left pitches over the plate to get hit, as his control is ahead of his command at this point. He could end up being a back-end starter. 13th rounder Zack Kone comes from Duke, where he had his best year this year by slashing .300/.359/.449 with five home runs and a 40/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. He played shortstop there, but may be forced over to second base if he can't improve his defense. If he can, it will buy his bat time to develop, and he could end up as a solid utility man at the major league level. To get there though, he'll have to improve his plate discipline and draw a few more walks. 15th rounder Jonah Davis is another Cal Golden Bear who had a breakout year this year, slashing .321/.446/.606 with 14 home runs and a 75/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 54 games. Clearly, the power is there (even at 5'10"), but also clearly, he strikes out way too much. Pro pitching will eat him up if he doesn't become more refined at the plate (31% strikeout rate will only get higher in pro ball if something doesn't change), but being a relatively speedy center fielder, he will hold onto his prospect status as long as he sticks in center and keeps hitting home runs.
Sunday, June 3, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 15 Outfielders
There are no superstars in this year's outfield class, but there is good depth, especially if you are looking for guys who can stay in center field long term. Being a center fielder is much like being a shortstop or second baseman in that pressure is taken off the bat, and on the flip side, being a left fielder means that all of the pressure is on the bat, nearly as much as if a player was a first baseman.
1. Travis Swaggerty (South Alabama)
Swaggerty opened eyes with a big sophomore season at South Alabama (10 HR, .361/.487/.567), and while his batting average dropped in 2018, he walked a lot more, added more power, and pushed himself possibly into the top ten picks. Over 57 games, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .296/.455/.526 with an excellent 38/54 strikeout to walk ratio. He generates more power than you would think for a 5'11" guy, especially with his speed. That speed plays on both sides of the ball, as he projects to stay in center field long term, taking some pressure off his bat. Add in that he's young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until August, and you have a guy with power, patience, and speed who could impact the game in a lot of ways.
2. Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West HS, WI)
There was buzz that the Tigers could select Kelenic first overall for an under slot deal for a while, but that has faded and he looks to go somewhere in the middle of the first round, with the top ten still being a possibility. He may be the most advanced high school hitter available, one who could slot into full season ball soon and who could work his way to the majors fairly quickly. While he doesn't have a plus tool, he does everything well, showing a very advanced approach at the plate as well as some power, speed, and good defense. If he can stay in center field, he could be a left handed Adam Eaton, but even if he slides to a corner, he'll still be an impactful player for a long time. He is a little old for the class, turning 19 in July, but he's so advanced as a hitter that that shouldn't be a problem. He's committed to Louisville.
3. Connor Scott (Plant HS, FL)
If Kelenic is the unspectacular, steady player, Scott is the exciting wild card. The Tampa native is lanky at 6'4" with plenty of room to grow into his frame, and he does everything well. While his approach is not as advanced as Kelenic's, he still has a good feel for the barrel and could grow into more power. He's extremely fast and has a cannon arm, meaning he could be an above average defender in center field, so he can impact the game on both ends of the ball. He is a little bit of a bust risk, as his swing is awkward and his power hasn't developed yet, but the swing works for him and it's not too dissimilar to former teammate and Astros first round pick Kyle Tucker's. He won't make it out of the first round and has a good shot at going in the top half, and he's committed to Florida.
4. Trevor Larnach (Oregon State)
Larnach's excellent performance this spring has had him shooting up draft boards, as he has slashed .330/.452/.632 with 17 home runs to actually overshadow possible top five pick Nick Madrigal in the Oregon State lineup at times. That power is real, as he generates elite exit velocities off the bat, so it should play up with wood bats. He does strike out a lot, but he also walks a lot, showing a power/patience combination that should carry him all the way to the majors. He also swung well in the Cape Cod League for two years, and he's overall trending hard in the right direction. He could hit his way to the majors quickly. On defense though, he's mediocre and will likely have to play left field, where he has enough bat to carry him. He'll likely come off the board before Scott.
5. Greyson Jenista (Wichita State)
Alec Bohm's teammate in Wichita is a first round prospect as well, albeit not as strong of one. He looked like a first round lock after a very good summer in the Cape Cod League (3 HR, .310/.391/.401) in which he was universally praised by coaches for his work ethic and leadership as well as his performance, but a pedestrian junior season (9 HR, .309/.446/.475) has knocked him at least to the back half of the first round if not out of it. I'm still high on him and think he'll be an impact player in time, as he has an explosive swing from a 6'4" frame that will help his power play up. He also walks a lot, and if he can improve his barrel control, he should be able to put it all together and be a complete hitter. He's athletic for his size and should be able to stay in the outfield, but he may have to move to first base if he slows down.
6. Jake McCarthy (Virginia)
Jake McCarthy, whose brother Joe is currently a prospect in the Rays system, had a very good sophomore year (5 HR, .338/.425/.506, 27 SB) and was ready to build on it in 2018 until a broken wrist cut a large chunk out of his season. I still like him as a prospect, as he has a clean, explosive swing that could generate more power if he adds some loft to go along with enough speed to stay in center field. The wrist injury makes him a bit of a wild card, and he may end up as a tweener that doesn't hit quite enough to break past AAA, but I buy the upside and think he could be an every day center fielder. He's also young for a college junior, and he's unlikely to go in the first round but should be drafted shortly afterwards.
7. Jordyn Adams (Green Hope HS, NC)
Adams is a fast rising prospect who could make this ranking look too conservative when it is all said and done. He wasn't well known heading into the season, but a huge performance at the National High School Invitational in March and continued good play afterwards have elevated him to a likely first round prospect. He's a super-athlete who is committed to North Carolina not just for baseball but for football as well, showcasing top of the scale speed that should help him stay in center field no matter how his arm and glove progress. That takes pressure off his bat, which is behind his glove but could generate power and contact when it's all said and done. His swing is long and smooth, and once he gives up football, it should get shorter and more consistent, though he does do a good job of getting the barrel into the zone early. He's ranked here but will go higher than McCarthy, probably higher than Jenista, and possibly in the same range as Scott and Larnach at best, though signability will be an issue no matter where he is drafted.
8. Mike Siani (Penn Charter HS, PA)
The Philadelphia area doesn't have much going on in terms of draft prospects, but Siani is right there in the national conversation. He is fast enough and has enough arm strength to not only stay in center field, but be very good there, taking some pressure off his bat. He'll need that pressure off, because even though he has some loft in his swing and the wheels to turn doubles into triples, he has struggled to find the barrel and will take some time to develop. If it all breaks right, I honestly see some Adam Haseley in him, and he's committed to Virginia like Haseley. He's a little old for a high school senior, turning 19 in July, and is probably a second round pick.
9. Griffin Conine (Duke)
Jeff Conine's son had a huge sophomore season (13 HR, .298/.425/.546) and then hit extremely well in the Cape Cod League (9 HR, .329/.406/.537), leading to projections that he could hit his way into the top ten picks with a good junior season. That didn't happen, as he sold out for power, his swing got long, and he struck out way too much, but he began to right the ship as the season went on and brings 15 home runs and a respectable .265/.390/.559 line into this writing. He strikes out a ton, 27.3% of the time, and that alone could be his downfall in pro ball. However, if he cleans up his approach with pro coaching, he has a good shot at being a power hitting right fielder in the middle of a major league order. He's also young for a college junior, turning 21 in July, and should go somewhere in the second round.
10. Steele Walker (Oklahoma)
Walker is an interesting prospect for more reasons than just his cool name, as he has hit better than ever during his junior year at Oklahoma (13 HR, .352/.441/.606), but hasn't seen his draft stock move up all that much. He plays the game hard and plays it smart, getting the most out of his skill set despite a relative lack of loud tools, which has led to plenty of success for the Sooners, but given that description, I'd like to see a better strikeout to walk ratio than 48/31 if I'm going to take him in the first round, as some teams have shown interest in doing. He strikes me as a bit of a tweener, a player who can't quite field enough to stay in center field but who doesn't quite hit enough for left field, so he could end up a fourth outfielder, but he also plays the game in such a way that he could surprise. He is a little bit old for his class though, turning 22 in July (quite a few July birthdays in this part of the rankings, I know). He could go anywhere from the end of the first round to the back of the second round, and likely ahead of Conine and Siani.
11. Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)
While I consider Walker a slightly better prospect, his teammate Kyler Murray is perhaps the most interesting man in the draft. A potential first round pick as a Dallas area high schooler, he was instead busy leading the famous Allen High School football program as one of the top quarterback recruits in the country to Texas A&M. Things didn't work out there and he transferred to Oklahoma, where he backed up first overall pick Baker Mayfield in Norman. Meanwhile, this paragraph is supposed to be about baseball, and I'll get to that. He had to sit out his freshman baseball season at Oklahoma due to transfer rules and slashed a miserable .122/.317/.122 as a sophomore, leading to the baseball world all but forgetting about him, but he's back out of nowhere this year. In 51 games, he has ten home runs and is slashing .296/.398/.556 with a respectable 56/28 strikeout to walk ratio given the circumstances, showing plenty of speed and the athleticism you'd expect from a two sport star. His bat is coming along nicely as well, and once (if ever) he focuses full time on baseball, he should be able to cut down that strikeout rate and bump up the walk rate. There is a lot of potential to unlock here, and to top it off, he is young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until August. He has pushed himself into the first round conversation, but he will be an extremely tough sign given that he has the opportunity to take over for Mayfield as the starting quarterback of the famous University of Oklahoma offense next fall.
12. Nick Schnell (Roncalli HS, IN)
Schnell is a high ceiling outfielder from Indianapolis who does a little bit of everything. He can run and stay in center field, taking pressure of his bat, and he has added power this spring with big bat speed and a whippy bat path. He is fairly raw at the plate, and pro coaching will need to clean up that swing, but as I said, the good defense buys him slack. He looks to go somewhere in the second round and is committed to Louisville, like Kelenic.
13. Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel HS, IL)
Thomas lacks any real standout tool but plays the game well and has a higher floor than most high school hitters. His feel to hit and defensive ability are both advanced, and if he can improve his arm strength, he'll be a good center fielder. That takes some pressure off his bat, which might need it because he lacks power and could end up a fourth outfielder if he doesn't start driving the ball with more authority. He's committed to TCU and could go as early as the end of the first round.
14. Jameson Hannah (Dallas Baptist)
Hannah may only be 5'9", but he has a lot of Denard Span in him and has shown consistent gap power this spring, slashing .363/.449/.556 with six home runs, 24 doubles, three triples, and an even 38/38 strikeout to walk ratio for the Patriots. He's fast, has shown a great feel for the barrel, and should stick in center field. If he can't cut it as a leadoff guy, he'll make a solid fourth outfielder, and should go somewhere in the second or third round.
15. Parker Meadows (Grayson HS, GA)
The younger brother of Pirates rookie star Austin Meadows, Parker isn't quite the same prospect but has high upside. His left handed swing, combined with his lean 6'4" frame, is built for knocking balls out of the park, but his feel for the barrel is subpar and will need to improve if he wants to go anywhere. With his speed and arm strength, he should be able to stick in center field, buying the contact some time to come along. He's committed to Clemson, where he could emerge as a first round pick in three years. If he chooses to sign, he's a second or third round talent.
Others: Kyle Isbel (UNLV), Tristan Pompey (Kentucky), Joe Gray Jr. (Hattiesburg HS, MS), Zach Watson (Louisiana State), Ryder Green (Karns HS, TN), Nick Decker (Seneca HS, NJ)
1. Travis Swaggerty (South Alabama)
Swaggerty opened eyes with a big sophomore season at South Alabama (10 HR, .361/.487/.567), and while his batting average dropped in 2018, he walked a lot more, added more power, and pushed himself possibly into the top ten picks. Over 57 games, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .296/.455/.526 with an excellent 38/54 strikeout to walk ratio. He generates more power than you would think for a 5'11" guy, especially with his speed. That speed plays on both sides of the ball, as he projects to stay in center field long term, taking some pressure off his bat. Add in that he's young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until August, and you have a guy with power, patience, and speed who could impact the game in a lot of ways.
2. Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West HS, WI)
There was buzz that the Tigers could select Kelenic first overall for an under slot deal for a while, but that has faded and he looks to go somewhere in the middle of the first round, with the top ten still being a possibility. He may be the most advanced high school hitter available, one who could slot into full season ball soon and who could work his way to the majors fairly quickly. While he doesn't have a plus tool, he does everything well, showing a very advanced approach at the plate as well as some power, speed, and good defense. If he can stay in center field, he could be a left handed Adam Eaton, but even if he slides to a corner, he'll still be an impactful player for a long time. He is a little old for the class, turning 19 in July, but he's so advanced as a hitter that that shouldn't be a problem. He's committed to Louisville.
3. Connor Scott (Plant HS, FL)
If Kelenic is the unspectacular, steady player, Scott is the exciting wild card. The Tampa native is lanky at 6'4" with plenty of room to grow into his frame, and he does everything well. While his approach is not as advanced as Kelenic's, he still has a good feel for the barrel and could grow into more power. He's extremely fast and has a cannon arm, meaning he could be an above average defender in center field, so he can impact the game on both ends of the ball. He is a little bit of a bust risk, as his swing is awkward and his power hasn't developed yet, but the swing works for him and it's not too dissimilar to former teammate and Astros first round pick Kyle Tucker's. He won't make it out of the first round and has a good shot at going in the top half, and he's committed to Florida.
4. Trevor Larnach (Oregon State)
Larnach's excellent performance this spring has had him shooting up draft boards, as he has slashed .330/.452/.632 with 17 home runs to actually overshadow possible top five pick Nick Madrigal in the Oregon State lineup at times. That power is real, as he generates elite exit velocities off the bat, so it should play up with wood bats. He does strike out a lot, but he also walks a lot, showing a power/patience combination that should carry him all the way to the majors. He also swung well in the Cape Cod League for two years, and he's overall trending hard in the right direction. He could hit his way to the majors quickly. On defense though, he's mediocre and will likely have to play left field, where he has enough bat to carry him. He'll likely come off the board before Scott.
5. Greyson Jenista (Wichita State)
Alec Bohm's teammate in Wichita is a first round prospect as well, albeit not as strong of one. He looked like a first round lock after a very good summer in the Cape Cod League (3 HR, .310/.391/.401) in which he was universally praised by coaches for his work ethic and leadership as well as his performance, but a pedestrian junior season (9 HR, .309/.446/.475) has knocked him at least to the back half of the first round if not out of it. I'm still high on him and think he'll be an impact player in time, as he has an explosive swing from a 6'4" frame that will help his power play up. He also walks a lot, and if he can improve his barrel control, he should be able to put it all together and be a complete hitter. He's athletic for his size and should be able to stay in the outfield, but he may have to move to first base if he slows down.
6. Jake McCarthy (Virginia)
Jake McCarthy, whose brother Joe is currently a prospect in the Rays system, had a very good sophomore year (5 HR, .338/.425/.506, 27 SB) and was ready to build on it in 2018 until a broken wrist cut a large chunk out of his season. I still like him as a prospect, as he has a clean, explosive swing that could generate more power if he adds some loft to go along with enough speed to stay in center field. The wrist injury makes him a bit of a wild card, and he may end up as a tweener that doesn't hit quite enough to break past AAA, but I buy the upside and think he could be an every day center fielder. He's also young for a college junior, and he's unlikely to go in the first round but should be drafted shortly afterwards.
7. Jordyn Adams (Green Hope HS, NC)
Adams is a fast rising prospect who could make this ranking look too conservative when it is all said and done. He wasn't well known heading into the season, but a huge performance at the National High School Invitational in March and continued good play afterwards have elevated him to a likely first round prospect. He's a super-athlete who is committed to North Carolina not just for baseball but for football as well, showcasing top of the scale speed that should help him stay in center field no matter how his arm and glove progress. That takes pressure off his bat, which is behind his glove but could generate power and contact when it's all said and done. His swing is long and smooth, and once he gives up football, it should get shorter and more consistent, though he does do a good job of getting the barrel into the zone early. He's ranked here but will go higher than McCarthy, probably higher than Jenista, and possibly in the same range as Scott and Larnach at best, though signability will be an issue no matter where he is drafted.
8. Mike Siani (Penn Charter HS, PA)
The Philadelphia area doesn't have much going on in terms of draft prospects, but Siani is right there in the national conversation. He is fast enough and has enough arm strength to not only stay in center field, but be very good there, taking some pressure off his bat. He'll need that pressure off, because even though he has some loft in his swing and the wheels to turn doubles into triples, he has struggled to find the barrel and will take some time to develop. If it all breaks right, I honestly see some Adam Haseley in him, and he's committed to Virginia like Haseley. He's a little old for a high school senior, turning 19 in July, and is probably a second round pick.
9. Griffin Conine (Duke)
Jeff Conine's son had a huge sophomore season (13 HR, .298/.425/.546) and then hit extremely well in the Cape Cod League (9 HR, .329/.406/.537), leading to projections that he could hit his way into the top ten picks with a good junior season. That didn't happen, as he sold out for power, his swing got long, and he struck out way too much, but he began to right the ship as the season went on and brings 15 home runs and a respectable .265/.390/.559 line into this writing. He strikes out a ton, 27.3% of the time, and that alone could be his downfall in pro ball. However, if he cleans up his approach with pro coaching, he has a good shot at being a power hitting right fielder in the middle of a major league order. He's also young for a college junior, turning 21 in July, and should go somewhere in the second round.
10. Steele Walker (Oklahoma)
Walker is an interesting prospect for more reasons than just his cool name, as he has hit better than ever during his junior year at Oklahoma (13 HR, .352/.441/.606), but hasn't seen his draft stock move up all that much. He plays the game hard and plays it smart, getting the most out of his skill set despite a relative lack of loud tools, which has led to plenty of success for the Sooners, but given that description, I'd like to see a better strikeout to walk ratio than 48/31 if I'm going to take him in the first round, as some teams have shown interest in doing. He strikes me as a bit of a tweener, a player who can't quite field enough to stay in center field but who doesn't quite hit enough for left field, so he could end up a fourth outfielder, but he also plays the game in such a way that he could surprise. He is a little bit old for his class though, turning 22 in July (quite a few July birthdays in this part of the rankings, I know). He could go anywhere from the end of the first round to the back of the second round, and likely ahead of Conine and Siani.
11. Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)
While I consider Walker a slightly better prospect, his teammate Kyler Murray is perhaps the most interesting man in the draft. A potential first round pick as a Dallas area high schooler, he was instead busy leading the famous Allen High School football program as one of the top quarterback recruits in the country to Texas A&M. Things didn't work out there and he transferred to Oklahoma, where he backed up first overall pick Baker Mayfield in Norman. Meanwhile, this paragraph is supposed to be about baseball, and I'll get to that. He had to sit out his freshman baseball season at Oklahoma due to transfer rules and slashed a miserable .122/.317/.122 as a sophomore, leading to the baseball world all but forgetting about him, but he's back out of nowhere this year. In 51 games, he has ten home runs and is slashing .296/.398/.556 with a respectable 56/28 strikeout to walk ratio given the circumstances, showing plenty of speed and the athleticism you'd expect from a two sport star. His bat is coming along nicely as well, and once (if ever) he focuses full time on baseball, he should be able to cut down that strikeout rate and bump up the walk rate. There is a lot of potential to unlock here, and to top it off, he is young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until August. He has pushed himself into the first round conversation, but he will be an extremely tough sign given that he has the opportunity to take over for Mayfield as the starting quarterback of the famous University of Oklahoma offense next fall.
12. Nick Schnell (Roncalli HS, IN)
Schnell is a high ceiling outfielder from Indianapolis who does a little bit of everything. He can run and stay in center field, taking pressure of his bat, and he has added power this spring with big bat speed and a whippy bat path. He is fairly raw at the plate, and pro coaching will need to clean up that swing, but as I said, the good defense buys him slack. He looks to go somewhere in the second round and is committed to Louisville, like Kelenic.
13. Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel HS, IL)
Thomas lacks any real standout tool but plays the game well and has a higher floor than most high school hitters. His feel to hit and defensive ability are both advanced, and if he can improve his arm strength, he'll be a good center fielder. That takes some pressure off his bat, which might need it because he lacks power and could end up a fourth outfielder if he doesn't start driving the ball with more authority. He's committed to TCU and could go as early as the end of the first round.
14. Jameson Hannah (Dallas Baptist)
Hannah may only be 5'9", but he has a lot of Denard Span in him and has shown consistent gap power this spring, slashing .363/.449/.556 with six home runs, 24 doubles, three triples, and an even 38/38 strikeout to walk ratio for the Patriots. He's fast, has shown a great feel for the barrel, and should stick in center field. If he can't cut it as a leadoff guy, he'll make a solid fourth outfielder, and should go somewhere in the second or third round.
15. Parker Meadows (Grayson HS, GA)
The younger brother of Pirates rookie star Austin Meadows, Parker isn't quite the same prospect but has high upside. His left handed swing, combined with his lean 6'4" frame, is built for knocking balls out of the park, but his feel for the barrel is subpar and will need to improve if he wants to go anywhere. With his speed and arm strength, he should be able to stick in center field, buying the contact some time to come along. He's committed to Clemson, where he could emerge as a first round pick in three years. If he chooses to sign, he's a second or third round talent.
Others: Kyle Isbel (UNLV), Tristan Pompey (Kentucky), Joe Gray Jr. (Hattiesburg HS, MS), Zach Watson (Louisiana State), Ryder Green (Karns HS, TN), Nick Decker (Seneca HS, NJ)
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