2021 MLB Draft Review: Miami Marlins

Full list of draftees

In 2018, the Marlins took position players with their first five picks, then did so again in 2019 before pivoting in 2020 and going with pitchers for all six picks. They were back to their old ways in 2021, grabbing seven consecutive position players to start the draft, and it probably didn't look the way they expected. When consensus top ten talent Kahlil Watson was available at pick #16, it changed their plans in a very good way, and they stayed aggressive after his massive bonus by going above slot with two of their next three picks. Four picks in, they were more than a million dollars above their bonus pool, so from there on out they went below slot with their final seven picks of day two and didn't go a penny over on day three. I like most of what Miami did here. You can't not like the Watson pick, with his ability to become a superstar, and I appreciate that they remained aggressive afterwards by grabbing expensive preps like Joe Mack and Jordan McCants in the next couple picks even if McCants wasn't a move I would have made. The draft is the most cost effective way to acquire talent, so to me it's absolutely the right move to go aggressive and spend as much as you can without losing picks. Watson was my favorite pick, and I think second rounder Cody Morissette has a chance to be a sneaky good player for them too.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-16: SS Kahlil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC]. My rank: #5.
There's no other way to slice it, this was an incredible get for Miami. Kahlil Watson was thought of by many to be seriously in play in the top five picks, but signability and apparent rumblings about his makeup pushed him down to the middle of the round. As I say with all players with makeup questions, I've never met the kid so I'm going to disregard those questions and assume the best. Watson is a supreme talent who has a chance to be the best player to come out of this draft. Despite standing only 5'9", the Raleigh-area native generates a ridiculous amount of force with his left handed uppercut for plus raw power that he gets to consistently in games. Despite the huge swing, he has gotten better and better with his hit tool and projects as at least average in that regard, if possibly above average. He manages the strike zone well and knows when to deploy that ferocious hack, giving him the upside of 25-30 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages. A plus runner, he should be able to stick at shortstop with athletic motions around the bag and plenty of arm strength, further adding to his All Star upside. As with any high schooler, there is going to be risk in this profile if he doesn't adjust well to pro pitching, but we're talking about a top of the draft talent that comes with lower risk than most preps, hence why he ranked fifth on my board. He plays with a lot of energy and it will be on Miami to help channel that energy into making him one of the game's next stars. It came down to the wire, but Watson signed for $4.54 million, which was roughly $790,000 above slot value, rather than attend NC State.

CBA-31: C Joe Mack, Williamsville East HS [NY]. My rank: #30.
Despite going way above slot to grab Kahlil Watson, the Marlins didn't shy away from another expensive high schooler and grabbed catcher Joe Mack with their extra competitive balance pick. High school catchers are perhaps the riskiest demographic of all, but Mack was getting looks ten-plus picks higher than this and the upside is worth the risk now outside the first round. He's a professional hitter that manages the strike zone very well and makes plenty of contact, showing a knack for finding the barrel and growing into above average raw power. He's already filled out his 6' frame quite nicely, but continued development should continue to help him increase his impact at the plate, and his feel for hitting will help him tap that. Behind the plate, he stands out for a plus arm, though his glove is a bit behind. It was fairly choppy for most of his prep career, but he came out looking smoother this spring and now looks like he'll be able to stick back there. If for some reason he can't, the Buffalo-area native is more athletic than most catchers and could handle a corner outfield spot. There have been some comparisons to Tyler Soderstrom from last year's class, though Soderstrom did have more raw power. Mack, committed to Clemson, signed for $2.5 million, about $190,000 above slot value.

2-52: SS Cody Morissette, Boston College. My rank: #57.
I like Cody Morissette – he just seems like a pro to me. He hit .320/.371/.476 as a true freshman then got off to a white hot start in 2020, slashing .448/.522/.655 in 15 games, but started slowly in 2021. As the spring wore on, though, he got back to his old ways and finished the season on a sixteen game hitting streak, with multi-hit games in each of his final six games. That pushed his slash line back up to .321/.398/.497 for the season, adding six home runs and a 33/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games. Morissette, like Joe Mack, is just a pro hitter. He manages the strike zone well, makes plenty of hard contact, and when he's on, is just one of the toughest outs you'll face. The southeastern New Hampshire native doesn't wow you with high exit velocities, but he hits a ton of line drives that find holes and shows enough strength and loft in his left handed swing to pop for home runs here and there. I see a 10-20 home run bat with moderately high on-base percentages and a good chance to reach that ceiling. Defensively, he played second base for Boston College and doesn't seem likely to move back over to shortstop in pro ball, despite being drafted as such, so he'll probably stick back at second base with just an average overall defensive game. If needed, he does show enough arm strength for be playable at third base and has some experience in the outfield, so there is a super-utility floor here. Morissette signed right at slot value for $1.4 million, then went 0-2 with three walks in his Class A debut.

3-88: SS Jordan McCants, Pensacola Catholic HS [FL]. My rank: #206.
The Marlins went above slot here for the third time in four rounds (and had yet to go below slot), and it would also be their last time. Jordan McCants is a Florida native (albeit a ten hour drive from Marlins Park) who will follow in the line of Nasim Nunez as a skinny, light hitting shortstop with a strong glove. McCants is rail thin at a listed 6'1", 165 pounds, showing great feel to hit from the left side that should enable him to transition to pro ball relatively easily. He can manipulate the barrel and make contact with pitches all over the zone, shooting line drives around the field and letting his plus speed do the rest. To this point, there is very little power to speak of, as he needs to bulk up a bit and his swing is very much geared for contact rather than power. Even as he does get stronger, the Pensacola-area native will likely never be much of a home run threat, rather someone who can hit plenty of doubles and triples. His speed translates to great range at shortstop, and with a little added strength he may have just enough arm to stick there. If he slides over to second base, he has a chance to be plus defender there, or his speed could help him run wild in center field. One downside to McCants' profile is his age, as he turned 19 in May and is extremely old for his class. This is probably a utility infielder projection with a chance to play every day if he can generate enough impact. He signed for $800,000 rather than attend Mississippi State, going $121,400 above slot value.

4-118: OF Tanner Allen, Mississippi State. My rank: #155.
Here's where the Marlins began their string of under slot signings, but they didn't compromise on fame for their first pick. Tanner Allen was the best player on Mississippi State's College World Series-winning team, slashing .383/.456/.621 with eleven home runs and a 35/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games en route to winning SEC Player of the Year. He employs a contact-oriented, all-fields approach at the plate that when combined with excellent feel for the barrel has enabled him to hit for impact against virtually every tough arm he came across. At 5'11", he lacks impact physical tools, so it's hard to project additional power in pro ball. He taps every bit of his 45 grade raw power in games, which may actually help the game power play up to a 50, but that's about the ceiling. The Mobile-area native probably projects as a corner outfielder in pro ball, with solid speed and instincts helping make up for a fringy arm. At best, Allen could hit 10-15 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, but more likely profiles as a fourth outfielder due to his age, having already turned 23 in June. He signed for $247,500, which was $240,400 below slot value, but is off to a slow 1-22 start between the FCL and Class A Jupiter.

5-149: OF Brady Allen, South Carolina. Unranked.
I didn't quite get around to Brady Allen in my draft rankings, but if I had another week or so, he was in that next batch I was considering. Allen is another Floridian (a product of George Jenkins High School in Lakeland) and had a solid season at South Carolina this year, slashing .276/.375/.516 with 13 home runs and a 50/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games against their tough schedule. There are some interesting physical tools here, as he shows plus raw power in batting practice and that translates to some very hard hit balls in games, but his swing is relatively flat and geared for line drives rather than home runs. I do feel like he could be a couple of small, attainable tweaks in his swing away from tapping that power more often, and he does have 23 career home runs in 129 games at South Carolina. There's some swing and miss in his game, sitting at 18.4% in 2021, though he did face an absolute gauntlet of SEC pitchers in addition to non-conference series against Texas and Clemson and NCAA regional games against Virginia and Old Dominion. A solid runner, he gets high grades for his competitiveness and should be an average corner outfielder. In total, it's a fourth outfielder projection unless he can tap more power in pro ball without sacrificing contact. Allen signed for $358,300, which was $2,500 below slot value.

8-239: LHP Patrick Monteverde, Texas Tech. Unranked.
It was nice to see everything come together for Patrick Monteverde in 2021. He started out at Virginia Wesleyan in 2017 and earned All State Rookie of the Year at the Division III level, then spent 2018-2020 at Division II Seton Hill University in Pennsylvania, though he threw just 20.2 innings over the latter two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. He impressed enough coming back from rehab that Texas Tech gave him an offer as a grad transfer, where his cinderella story came to fruition. Monteverde began the season with 20.2 shutout innings against Arkansas, Houston Baptist, Sam Houston State, and UConn before allowing his first runs to the Huskies, and he brought a 0.75 ERA through the end of March, pitching his way into the Friday night role of what would end up the #8 national seed and a super regional host. He scuffled a bit in the second half of the season, allowing six runs to Kansas State and seven apiece to Baylor and Oklahoma, bringing his final line to a 3.75 ERA and a 101/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.1 innings. The 6'2" lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding a full arsenal with a curve, slider, and changeup. The curve and slider can blend into each other and neither projects as better than average, while his changeup is his out pitch with arm side fade. Everything plays up because he goes right after hitters and plays with a well-earned chip on his shoulder, showing above average command and the ability to go deep into ballgames. The Pittsburgh native figures to be a back-end starter at best, with his most likely projection being that of a long reliever, considering he'll turn 24 in September. He signed for $47,500, which was $125,500 below slot value, and has thrown three shutout innings in the FCL so far.

11-329: RHP Jesse Bergin, UCLA. My rank: #218.
I found Jesse Bergin to be a really interesting arm coming into the season, but his stuff flattened out just a little bit in the spring and he watched numerous others pass him on teams' boards. He finished the season with a 4.18 ERA and a 65/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.2 innings, but also allowed 85 hits in that span. The 6'4" righty shows a low 90's fastball that gets up to 93-94 without much effort, as well as a slider and a changeup. When he rattles off a good one, his slider is a clearly above average pitch with nice bite, but it got loopy at times in 2021 and got hit. The changeup is his third pitch. Bergin's best attribute is his ability to pound the strike zone and locate his pitches to all four quadrants, repeating his delivery well and keeping his pitch counts down. When his stuff is playing above average, that's a #3/#4 starter profile, but he didn't show that side enough in 2021. With his rigid delivery, the Marlins may just shift the Los Angeles-area native to the bullpen, where he can ditch the changeup and hopefully get more consistent with that slider. He signed for $125,000 and tossed two shutout innings in his FCL debut.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at pick #11 (April update)

Back in February, before the season started, I highlighted ten players I could see the Nationals taking with the eleventh overall pick. Now in April, a lot has changed, so I'll spare the introduction that can be found in the original article and hop right into it. With nearly three months to go, a lot can and will still change, but here is where things stand now. Ranking on my most recent top 75 in parentheses.

RHP Ty Madden, Texas (#11)
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.
2021: 4-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 57/18 K/BB in 53.1 IP.
As I mentioned last time, this one really fits with the Nationals' drafting style. Ty Madden is your traditional, tall, consistent right hander with no glaring flaws to his game. His low to mid 90's fastball has topped out at 99 this spring, and he commands it well to both sides of the plate. He adds a slider that is usually at least average and flashes plus, as well as a consistently above average changeup. Combine three at least above average pitches with consistent command and a durable frame, and you have a prototypical starting pitcher. As he's continued to stay healthy and pound the strike zone, worries have faded over his slightly funky arm action that features some stab in the back, and instead focus on the "old school" steep plane on his pitches. Coming from straight over the top, his VAA (vertical approach angle) is difficult to lift with a traditional hitting approach, but won't miss as many bats as a flatter, Jack Leiter-esque fastball. Still, with an excellent spring that has featured seven consecutive starts of at least six innings and no more than two runs or three walks, he's as safe a bet as anybody in this draft to become a mid-rotation starter, something the Nationals would love.

RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi (#8)
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 90/18 K/BB in 91.1 IP.
2021: 3-1, 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 78/16 K/BB in 49 IP.
Gunnar Hoglund was in the "other possibilities" section of this list last time, but a bump in velocity puts him squarely in the conversation for Washington at pick #11, if he even makes it out of the top ten. Despite touching 96 in high school, Hoglund was generally around 90 throughout his first two years at Ole Miss, instead focusing deploying his plus command. He threw an average slider that flashed above average, as well as a seldom-used changeup, but mostly pitched off that fastball by dotting it right where he wanted it. Even though we knew he had more velocity in the tank, it was still a back-of-the-first-round profile until he proved it. Well, in 2021, he proved it. I was at Globe Life Field in Arlington to catch his start against Texas Tech, where he came out throwing 94-95 in the first inning and now two months later, he hasn't looked back. Holding that same plus command, Hoglund is regularly in the low to mid 90's nowadays with an effortless delivery that screams durability. His slider has taken a big step forward and is regularly above average, flashing plus, and it's topping out around 87-88, which was the lower end of his fastball velocity a year ago. He's also broken out that changeup more often and it's looking like a solidly above average pitch as well. At this point, I would prefer the Nationals draft Hoglund to Madden, but he might not even make it this far if he keeps pitching like this.

RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt (#3)
2019-2020: 14-6, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 142/29 K/BB in 114.2 IP.
2021: 7-1, 1.88 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 73/14 K/BB in 48 IP.
Wait, what? Isn't Kumar Rocker supposed to be a candidate at 1-1? Well, his stock his slipping just a little bit right now. If the draft were today, he wouldn't make it to the Nationals at pick #11, but the draft is not today and he might be trending in that direction. For most of his time at Vanderbilt, the big righty has sat in the mid 90's with his fastball and touched 97-98 at the high end, but over his past few starts, that velocity has dipped pretty significantly into the low 90's. When you're talking about the very top of the draft, where teams are making potentially franchise-altering decisions, that's a big deal. There are teams wondering whether it's health related, fatigue related, or what, but he's going to want to answer that question definitively before July. Still, we're talking about a kid with great extension and a flat VAA (remember Madden had a steep VAA) that makes his fastball play above its velocity, and while his command is not pinpoint, he's been very consistent about landing the pitch for strikes (though the quality of those strikes has been nitpicked). He also adds arguably the best breaking ball in the class, an elite slider that crushes souls and could get big league hitters out right now. Rocker hasn't used his changeup as much, but it does flash above average. If his velocity comes back before the draft, it's highly unlikely he's available to the Nationals at pick #11, but continued fluctuations coupled with fastball command questions (i.e., hitting spots) could push him outside the top ten. So long as he stays healthy and nothing drastic happens, I see the Nationals as a potential floor for him.

SS Matt McLain, UCLA (#23)
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.
2021: 6 HR, .314/.411/.542, 4 SB, 20/19 K/BB in 29 games.
I mentioned Matt McLain as an option for the Nationals back in February, and after a relatively slow start to the season, he was trending away from this list. However, he's now picked up a hit in sixteen of his last seventeen games and at one point hit four home runs in four games against Washington and Stanford, pushing his name back into consideration here just outside the top ten. McLain has no one flashy tool, but is instead what you call a "gamer" – the kid can just play. Despite standing a skinny 5'11", his athleticism and strong feel for the barrel have enabled him to tap more and more power throughout his amateur career, and that power showed up with wood bats as well in an exceptional turn through the California Collegiate League over the summer. He has reduced the swing and miss in his game as well, dropping his strikeout rate from 25.7% as a freshman to 20.3% as a sophomore and 14.2% this year as a junior. Meanwhile, his walk rate climbed from 6.8% and 6.3% over his first two years to 13.5% this year. A strong athlete, he is also a plus runner and has an outside chance at sticking at shortstop, though his feel to play the position at a major league level is questionable and he might fit better at second or third base. Overall, we're talking about a kid who can impact a baseball game in a lot of ways, and for a traditional team like the Nationals, a 15-20 home run bat with relatively high batting averages and an infield glove sounds like a fit. An August birthday makes him relatively old for the class, and that turns off some teams, but the Nationals did pop fellow August baby Cade Cavalli in the first round last year.

OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State (#28)
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.
2021: 12 HR, .351/.486/.730, 9 SB, 23/24 K/BB in 31 games.
Colton Cowser, like his alliterative counterpart Matt McLain, was featured on this list back in February, and he's on a similar, if more extreme, trajectory. Cowser was excellent as a freshman (.361/.450/.602) but never really got going in his shortened sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), then got off to a slow start in 2021 that caused many in the industry (myself included) to sour on him a bit. I actually dropped him as low as #41 at one point. However, he clubbed four home runs in two games against Northwestern State and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to bust out of that slump in a big way, then later homered in five consecutive games against Central Arkansas, Texas A&M, and New Orleans. Now that he's hot again, there is a lot to like in this profile. Ty Madden's high school teammate has a very strong feel for hitting, something he showed on a national stage with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019. He has a flat left handed swing that is more geared for line drives than fly balls, but he finds that barrel extremely frequently against the so-so Southland Conference pitching he faces at Sam Houston State. With a wiry 6'3" frame, it's easy to see him tacking on a bit more power, though he will need to tinker with his swing to get there consistently against pro pitching. Cowser, like McLain, is a plus runner, though as an outfielder he's working to prove he can stick in center field. In a year without many viable college bats, a guy like Cowser who can impact the game in a lot of ways sticks out.

OF Sal Frelick, Boston College (#12)
2019-2020: 6 HR, .332/.428/.486, 25 SB, 22/33 K/BB in 54 games.
2021: 5 HR, .360/.438/.576, 8 SB, 15/16 K/BB in 30 games.
Here's a new name. Coming into the season, Sal Frelick was an interesting back-of-the-first-round type who could impact the game in a lot of ways (that's three straight players I've used that verbiage for) but didn't necessarily stick out. Halfway through the season, boy does he stick out as arguably the second best college position player out there (at this point, there's probably no catching Henry Davis). The Massachusetts native has been blasting the ball around the field with ferocity this season, finding the barrel extremely consistently with elite bat to ball skills and wiry strength. In the past, he's often sold out for contact by putting bad (but successful) swings on bad pitches, and this year he's doing more damage and getting his "A" swing off more often. Described as a "ridiculous athlete," he plays a great center field with plus speed and could even fit at second base if needed. Some teams might be scared off by the size in this part of the draft, but that would be foolish and Frelick has every chance to become an impact, every day center fielder with 15-20 home run power (perhaps more), high on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases. Between McLain and Cowser, Frelick is probably the least likely to still be on the board when the Nationals pick.

RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK] (#16)
This might be a bit of a reach unless they under slot him, but I do want to include a couple of high school pitchers for a team that has a history with them (see Mason Denaburg, Lucas Giolito). Jackson Jobe is an extremely interesting pitcher out of the Oklahoma City high school ranks, and could give the Nationals a second straight first round Okie pitcher after Tulsa-native and Sooner star Cade Cavalli last year. Relatively new to pitching, the 6'2" righty was better prospect as a hitter until a huge summer on the showcase circuit as a pitcher last year. He has a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's in short stints and gets up to 95-96, but the real story is his slider. While Kumar Rocker has the best breaking ball in the college class, Jobe's slider is the best in the high school class with ridiculous spin rates well north of 3000 RPM's. Its bite is late, it's tight, and it's just a wicked pitch overall. He also adds a curveball and a changeup that flash above average, and by staying healthy and filling up the strike zone this spring, he has added confidence that he'll stick in the rotation. Jobe is old for the class and will turn 19 slightly after the draft, but even if that did bother the Nationals, the fact that he's relatively new to pitching should offset it. He is committed to Ole Miss but in the top half of the first round, I don't expect him to be too expensive.

RHP Bubba Chandler, North Oconee HS [GA] (#29)
Same deal as Jackson Jobe here – this would probably be a reach unless he signed well below slot, but the Nationals aren't afraid of high school pitchers and Bubba Chandler seems like a guy they would like. Pitching at Kumar Rocker's alma mater near Athens, Georgia, Chandler is a ridiculous athlete who is actually committed to Clemson to play quarterback as well. If you follow college football at all, you know the enormity of that distinction – kid's a stud. Heading into the spring, it seemed unlikely that his projected second to fourth round draft range would deter him away from Dabo Swinney's program, but he's had some of the most helium of any high schooler in the country this spring. Does that push him all the way up to the Nationals at pick #11? Probably not, but we can still discuss it. Chandler is a 6'3" righty with a fastball that has leapt into the mid 90's, touching 97, and his command has held solid as well. He adds a sharp curveball that looks like one of the best breakers in the class at its best, a new slider that brings a more horizontal look, and a changeup that is quickly becoming a weapon in its own right. Combine that with obviously immense athleticism and you have a very, very interesting arm to buy early in the draft. That Clemson commitment will make him very expensive if he were picked closer to the back of the first round, but here at the eleventh pick you could probably under slot him.

SS Kahlil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC] (#7)
We'll finish up with a couple of bats. While Bubba Chandler might be a reach here, Kahlil Watson might not even make it to pick #11 with the way he's trending. If he is available, the Nationals would be smart to snatch him up. Though Raleigh-Durham is Braves country in reality, his hometown of Wake Forest, NC is technically closer to Washington than it is to Atlanta and I'll call that a hometown pick. Watson is a loud player in every sense of the word, but the first thing you notice is his swing. He generates tremendous torque from the left side with a vicious uppercut, giving him plus raw power despite a smaller 5'9" frame. Despite the ferocity of his swing, it's a controlled operation and he's made consistent contact both on the showcase circuit and this spring in North Carolina. Watson also showcases plus speed that makes him a threat on the bases, and combined with his strong arm makes him a good bet to stick at shortstop. A high-energy player that is fun to watch on the diamond, he has face-of-the-franchise upside if he reaches it. For now, he's probably just outside that top tier of high school hitters (Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House) just due to a hit tool that's more average than above average, but he could very well be gone anyways in the top ten. He's committed to NC State and will be expensive.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL] (#9)
This one would really be a hometown pick, as James Wood grew up in Olney, Maryland, about twenty miles due north of Nationals Park. He attends the famed IMG Academy down in Florida along with numerous other 2021 and 2022 draft prospects, where he's actually their second best draft prospect behind 2022's Elijah Green. Wood is a towering 6'6" slugger who can absolutely punish a baseball when he connects, but the separating factor is actually his hit tool. He makes surprisingly easy contact for a hitter so big and so strong, identifying balls and strikes well against elite competition. That makes him all the more dangerous and has earned him comparisons to Zac Veen, who went ninth overall to the Rockies last year, though Wood has more present power. He's an easygoing kid who plays the game with an ultra-low heartbeat, somewhat the opposite of Kahlil Watson above him on this list, letting his play do the talking. For now, he's a good athlete as well who can actually handle center field, but he'll likely slow down as he ages and right field is probably the best fit with his cannon arm. Wood has true middle-of-the-order upside as a kid who could hit 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Committed to Mississippi State, he will likely be an expensive sign.

A few other possibilities
RHP McCade Brown, Indiana
OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas
C Luca Tresh, North Carolina State
RHP Chase Petty, Mainland Regional HS [NJ]
C Harry Ford, North Cobb HS [GA]

Updates on those mentioned last time

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn (#43): 0-3, 7.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 16/6 K/BB in 18.2 IP.
Fitts had a chance to pitch himself into top ten consideration with a strong spring, but instead he lost his rotation spot at Auburn as he's proven more hittable than expected despite filling up the strike zone relatively well. Analytics-driven teams will still like his high spin fastball and pair of nice secondaries, but because he hasn't proven he can start, he figures to go closer to the back of the first round at best.

LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan (#56): 1-0, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 42/10 K/BB in 35.1 IP.
It's been a much stronger season for Hajjar than for Fitts, but Hajjar was a long shot two months ago and hasn't taken the step forward he needed. His velocity is still relatively fringy around 90, peaking into the low 90's, which isn't enough this early in the draft. He has promising secondaries and has thrown more consistent strikes in 2021, so he'll still be a strong option in the second round, perhaps even for the Nationals at pick #47.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State (#37): 2-3, 6.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 25/12 K/BB in 29.2 IP.
It's been an unfortunate season for Jaden Hill at every step of the way. A potential top five pick coming into the season, concerns started to crop up when his slider proved more inconsistent than expected and he failed to miss as many bats with his fastball as some scouts had hoped. Then on April 2nd in a highly touted matchup against potential first overall pick Jack Leiter, he walked off the field holding his elbow and ended up needing Tommy John surgery. It is truly remarkable how Jaden Hill has transformed himself as a pitcher over three years in Baton Rouge, but now with two season-ending injuries in three years and no consistent track record of starting, it's really hard to project him as a long term starter in the big leagues. I don't think the Nationals would bite at #11, but if he slipped to #47 in the second round, I could see them paying him well above slot to sign.

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville (#40): 7 HR, .231/.319/.496, 2 SB, 30/12 K/BB in 30 games.
It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for Alex Binelas. After taking the ACC by storm as a freshman (.291/.383/.612), he played just two games a sophomore due to a broken hand. Healthy in 2021, he struggled mightily out of the gate with just one hit in his first six games against relatively weak competition. He's since shown glimpses of the star he was as a freshman, including a four game stretch against NC State, Western Kentucky, and Notre Dame in which he went 9-15 with three home runs, but overall he just hasn't been able to recover the stock he lost with those early season struggles. Combine that with a move to first base for Louisville, and he fits closer to the back of the first round at best right now.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL] (#26)
I considered including Andrew Painter on this list again this time around, but ultimately I opted for the two prep arms trending up (Jackson Jobe and Bubba Chandler) rather than one trending down. Painter's stock isn't crashing, per se, but he's no longer the consensus top pitcher in the class after a spring where his command has been a bit shakier than before and he's been hit a little harder. There's still a lot to like in a 6'6" right hander who can hit the mid 90's, adds a full arsenal, and shows well above average command at times, but not at pick #11. He could be an option for the Nationals at pick #47 if they want to sign him way above slot. He's committed to Florida and will want first round money no matter what.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA] (#5)
Unlike the other names that I included last time but didn't this time, Brady House isn't slipping. Instead, he's continued to wow evaluators with his huge tool set and I think it's highly unlikely he gets to the Nationals at pick #11 unless his signing bonus demands are outrageous. If House goes out and lights up the pre-draft showcases like I expect him to, we'll see him go well within the top ten picks.