In 2018, the Marlins took position players with their first five picks, then did so again in 2019 before pivoting in 2020 and going with pitchers for all six picks. They were back to their old ways in 2021, grabbing seven consecutive position players to start the draft, and it probably didn't look the way they expected. When consensus top ten talent Kahlil Watson was available at pick #16, it changed their plans in a very good way, and they stayed aggressive after his massive bonus by going above slot with two of their next three picks. Four picks in, they were more than a million dollars above their bonus pool, so from there on out they went below slot with their final seven picks of day two and didn't go a penny over on day three. I like most of what Miami did here. You can't not like the Watson pick, with his ability to become a superstar, and I appreciate that they remained aggressive afterwards by grabbing expensive preps like Joe Mack and Jordan McCants in the next couple picks even if McCants wasn't a move I would have made. The draft is the most cost effective way to acquire talent, so to me it's absolutely the right move to go aggressive and spend as much as you can without losing picks. Watson was my favorite pick, and I think second rounder Cody Morissette has a chance to be a sneaky good player for them too.
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1-16: SS Kahlil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC]. My rank: #5.
There's no other way to slice it, this was an incredible get for Miami. Kahlil Watson was thought of by many to be seriously in play in the top five picks, but signability and apparent rumblings about his makeup pushed him down to the middle of the round. As I say with all players with makeup questions, I've never met the kid so I'm going to disregard those questions and assume the best. Watson is a supreme talent who has a chance to be the best player to come out of this draft. Despite standing only 5'9", the Raleigh-area native generates a ridiculous amount of force with his left handed uppercut for plus raw power that he gets to consistently in games. Despite the huge swing, he has gotten better and better with his hit tool and projects as at least average in that regard, if possibly above average. He manages the strike zone well and knows when to deploy that ferocious hack, giving him the upside of 25-30 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages. A plus runner, he should be able to stick at shortstop with athletic motions around the bag and plenty of arm strength, further adding to his All Star upside. As with any high schooler, there is going to be risk in this profile if he doesn't adjust well to pro pitching, but we're talking about a top of the draft talent that comes with lower risk than most preps, hence why he ranked fifth on my board. He plays with a lot of energy and it will be on Miami to help channel that energy into making him one of the game's next stars. It came down to the wire, but Watson signed for $4.54 million, which was roughly $790,000 above slot value, rather than attend NC State.
CBA-31: C Joe Mack, Williamsville East HS [NY]. My rank: #30.
Despite going way above slot to grab Kahlil Watson, the Marlins didn't shy away from another expensive high schooler and grabbed catcher Joe Mack with their extra competitive balance pick. High school catchers are perhaps the riskiest demographic of all, but Mack was getting looks ten-plus picks higher than this and the upside is worth the risk now outside the first round. He's a professional hitter that manages the strike zone very well and makes plenty of contact, showing a knack for finding the barrel and growing into above average raw power. He's already filled out his 6' frame quite nicely, but continued development should continue to help him increase his impact at the plate, and his feel for hitting will help him tap that. Behind the plate, he stands out for a plus arm, though his glove is a bit behind. It was fairly choppy for most of his prep career, but he came out looking smoother this spring and now looks like he'll be able to stick back there. If for some reason he can't, the Buffalo-area native is more athletic than most catchers and could handle a corner outfield spot. There have been some comparisons to Tyler Soderstrom from last year's class, though Soderstrom did have more raw power. Mack, committed to Clemson, signed for $2.5 million, about $190,000 above slot value.
2-52: SS Cody Morissette, Boston College. My rank: #57.
I like Cody Morissette – he just seems like a pro to me. He hit .320/.371/.476 as a true freshman then got off to a white hot start in 2020, slashing .448/.522/.655 in 15 games, but started slowly in 2021. As the spring wore on, though, he got back to his old ways and finished the season on a sixteen game hitting streak, with multi-hit games in each of his final six games. That pushed his slash line back up to .321/.398/.497 for the season, adding six home runs and a 33/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games. Morissette, like Joe Mack, is just a pro hitter. He manages the strike zone well, makes plenty of hard contact, and when he's on, is just one of the toughest outs you'll face. The southeastern New Hampshire native doesn't wow you with high exit velocities, but he hits a ton of line drives that find holes and shows enough strength and loft in his left handed swing to pop for home runs here and there. I see a 10-20 home run bat with moderately high on-base percentages and a good chance to reach that ceiling. Defensively, he played second base for Boston College and doesn't seem likely to move back over to shortstop in pro ball, despite being drafted as such, so he'll probably stick back at second base with just an average overall defensive game. If needed, he does show enough arm strength for be playable at third base and has some experience in the outfield, so there is a super-utility floor here. Morissette signed right at slot value for $1.4 million, then went 0-2 with three walks in his Class A debut.
3-88: SS Jordan McCants, Pensacola Catholic HS [FL]. My rank: #206.
The Marlins went above slot here for the third time in four rounds (and had yet to go below slot), and it would also be their last time. Jordan McCants is a Florida native (albeit a ten hour drive from Marlins Park) who will follow in the line of Nasim Nunez as a skinny, light hitting shortstop with a strong glove. McCants is rail thin at a listed 6'1", 165 pounds, showing great feel to hit from the left side that should enable him to transition to pro ball relatively easily. He can manipulate the barrel and make contact with pitches all over the zone, shooting line drives around the field and letting his plus speed do the rest. To this point, there is very little power to speak of, as he needs to bulk up a bit and his swing is very much geared for contact rather than power. Even as he does get stronger, the Pensacola-area native will likely never be much of a home run threat, rather someone who can hit plenty of doubles and triples. His speed translates to great range at shortstop, and with a little added strength he may have just enough arm to stick there. If he slides over to second base, he has a chance to be plus defender there, or his speed could help him run wild in center field. One downside to McCants' profile is his age, as he turned 19 in May and is extremely old for his class. This is probably a utility infielder projection with a chance to play every day if he can generate enough impact. He signed for $800,000 rather than attend Mississippi State, going $121,400 above slot value.
4-118: OF Tanner Allen, Mississippi State. My rank: #155.
Here's where the Marlins began their string of under slot signings, but they didn't compromise on fame for their first pick. Tanner Allen was the best player on Mississippi State's College World Series-winning team, slashing .383/.456/.621 with eleven home runs and a 35/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games en route to winning SEC Player of the Year. He employs a contact-oriented, all-fields approach at the plate that when combined with excellent feel for the barrel has enabled him to hit for impact against virtually every tough arm he came across. At 5'11", he lacks impact physical tools, so it's hard to project additional power in pro ball. He taps every bit of his 45 grade raw power in games, which may actually help the game power play up to a 50, but that's about the ceiling. The Mobile-area native probably projects as a corner outfielder in pro ball, with solid speed and instincts helping make up for a fringy arm. At best, Allen could hit 10-15 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, but more likely profiles as a fourth outfielder due to his age, having already turned 23 in June. He signed for $247,500, which was $240,400 below slot value, but is off to a slow 1-22 start between the FCL and Class A Jupiter.
5-149: OF Brady Allen, South Carolina. Unranked.
I didn't quite get around to Brady Allen in my draft rankings, but if I had another week or so, he was in that next batch I was considering. Allen is another Floridian (a product of George Jenkins High School in Lakeland) and had a solid season at South Carolina this year, slashing .276/.375/.516 with 13 home runs and a 50/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games against their tough schedule. There are some interesting physical tools here, as he shows plus raw power in batting practice and that translates to some very hard hit balls in games, but his swing is relatively flat and geared for line drives rather than home runs. I do feel like he could be a couple of small, attainable tweaks in his swing away from tapping that power more often, and he does have 23 career home runs in 129 games at South Carolina. There's some swing and miss in his game, sitting at 18.4% in 2021, though he did face an absolute gauntlet of SEC pitchers in addition to non-conference series against Texas and Clemson and NCAA regional games against Virginia and Old Dominion. A solid runner, he gets high grades for his competitiveness and should be an average corner outfielder. In total, it's a fourth outfielder projection unless he can tap more power in pro ball without sacrificing contact. Allen signed for $358,300, which was $2,500 below slot value.
8-239: LHP Patrick Monteverde, Texas Tech. Unranked.
It was nice to see everything come together for Patrick Monteverde in 2021. He started out at Virginia Wesleyan in 2017 and earned All State Rookie of the Year at the Division III level, then spent 2018-2020 at Division II Seton Hill University in Pennsylvania, though he threw just 20.2 innings over the latter two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. He impressed enough coming back from rehab that Texas Tech gave him an offer as a grad transfer, where his cinderella story came to fruition. Monteverde began the season with 20.2 shutout innings against Arkansas, Houston Baptist, Sam Houston State, and UConn before allowing his first runs to the Huskies, and he brought a 0.75 ERA through the end of March, pitching his way into the Friday night role of what would end up the #8 national seed and a super regional host. He scuffled a bit in the second half of the season, allowing six runs to Kansas State and seven apiece to Baylor and Oklahoma, bringing his final line to a 3.75 ERA and a 101/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.1 innings. The 6'2" lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding a full arsenal with a curve, slider, and changeup. The curve and slider can blend into each other and neither projects as better than average, while his changeup is his out pitch with arm side fade. Everything plays up because he goes right after hitters and plays with a well-earned chip on his shoulder, showing above average command and the ability to go deep into ballgames. The Pittsburgh native figures to be a back-end starter at best, with his most likely projection being that of a long reliever, considering he'll turn 24 in September. He signed for $47,500, which was $125,500 below slot value, and has thrown three shutout innings in the FCL so far.
11-329: RHP Jesse Bergin, UCLA. My rank: #218.
I found Jesse Bergin to be a really interesting arm coming into the season, but his stuff flattened out just a little bit in the spring and he watched numerous others pass him on teams' boards. He finished the season with a 4.18 ERA and a 65/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.2 innings, but also allowed 85 hits in that span. The 6'4" righty shows a low 90's fastball that gets up to 93-94 without much effort, as well as a slider and a changeup. When he rattles off a good one, his slider is a clearly above average pitch with nice bite, but it got loopy at times in 2021 and got hit. The changeup is his third pitch. Bergin's best attribute is his ability to pound the strike zone and locate his pitches to all four quadrants, repeating his delivery well and keeping his pitch counts down. When his stuff is playing above average, that's a #3/#4 starter profile, but he didn't show that side enough in 2021. With his rigid delivery, the Marlins may just shift the Los Angeles-area native to the bullpen, where he can ditch the changeup and hopefully get more consistent with that slider. He signed for $125,000 and tossed two shutout innings in his FCL debut.
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