The Mariners have been one of the most consistent teams in terms of drafting college players early, going that route with their first pick every year from 2015-2020. They changed it up this year and brought on Harry Ford, their first prep in the first round since Alex Jackson in 2014, and they'll be hoping for better this time around. They went all in, in fact, and took preps with their next two picks as well, sitting nearly a million dollars over their bonus pool by the time they got to the fourth round. It was a draft focused on athletes, as Ford and second rounder Edwin Arroyo were two of the most impressive in the class, while the pitchers followed the trademark Seattle low release profile, in stark contrast to the Phillies' draft that I wrote immediately before this one tending more for high release guys.
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1-12: C Harry Ford, North Cobbs HS [GA]. My rank: #14.
If you're going to take a high schooler in the first round for the first time in seven years, you might as well make it a fun one. Harry Ford is an incredibly talented ballplayer that warranted my highest ever ranking for a high school catcher (rankings go back to 2015), and he fully earned it. By now, you've probably heard about Ford's elite athleticism, and it's not just because he's the rare catcher with true plus speed. He deploys that athleticism extremely well behind the plate, getting down low or side to side extremely nimbly and if he gets crossed up, he seems like the kind of guy whose natural quick reactions could save his face from an unexpected fastball or keep an uninvited breaking ball in front. As with most high school catchers, he does need to get a bit more consistent with his fundamentals, but that's hardly a knock and he'll likely become at least an above average defender back there. Some have suggested moving him to another position to best utilize his speed, but when he's so agile behind the plate and does a good job, why mess with it? Moving on, we have a special bat as well. Ford generates a ridiculous amount of torque in his right handed swing despite a smaller 5'10" frame, not too dissimilar to Marlins first rounder Kahlil Watson in that regard. That torque gives him plus raw power that he gets to in games, and the Atlanta-area native additionally shows great plate discipline even against the top arms in the country. There's some swing and miss that comes naturally with a high-intensity swing like his, though given his ability to select good pitches, it's not overly concerning. Really, the only drawback here is the poor track record of high school catchers. Ford is a special talent no doubt, but all high school catchers getting drafted in the first round are special talents. So the question becomes, is Ford just special, or is he special special. Honestly, I think he's the latter, or else I wouldn't have included him this high on my rankings, and the Mariners obviously believe that as well. Committed to catching pipeline Georgia Tech, he instead signed for full slot value at roughly $4.37 million.
2-48: SS Edwin Arroyo, Arecibo Baseball Academy [PR]. My rank: #76.
If you're looking for top-tier athletes, why stop at just one? The Mariners are getting another special athlete in Edwin Arroyo, the highest drafted player from Puerto Rico since Delvin Perez went 23rd overall in 2016. Arroyo probably couldn't beat Harry Ford in a foot race, but he does have elite body coordination that serves him extremely well on both sides of the ball. In the field, he's a plus defender at shortstop that can make all the plays and then some, with a strong arm playing up further due to his ability to throw from all angles (or even with his left hand because he's fully ambidextrous). At the plate, Arroyo is a switch hitter who can really whip the barrel through the zone and finds the barrel consistently. He's a bit slight for now at a listed 6', 175 pounds, but if he can tack on some additional strength, he should be able to tap at least average power down the line. The northwestern Puerto Rico native is extremely young for the class, not turning 18 until August, which significantly helps his offensive profile because it gives him more time to grow into his frame and more time to learn to tap his power. There are a lot of ways Arroyo could develop, but the Mariners know they're getting a premium athlete at a premium position who has more time than most to grow into his game. Committed to Florida State, he signed for $1.65 million, which was roughly $110,000 above slot value.
3-83: RHP Michael Morales, East Pennsboro HS [PA]. My rank: #118.
We've got a third straight high schooler in Michael Morales, who has been a pretty well-known name for a while now. He's been more inconsistent than some others, but when he's at his best, he looks like a legitimate top two rounds talent that the Mariners are happy to get in the third. The 6'1" righty can run his fastball up to 94-95 at his best while comfortably sitting in the low 90's, though at other times he can dip to around 90. His curveball and changeup both look like above average pitches when he's going right, and he fills up the strike zone better than many other preps. On the flip side, those pitches can flatten out at times and when he leaves them over the plate, they get hit. Morales has a very athletic, projectable frame and repeats his delivery well, and there's a good chance that if he made it to campus at Vanderbilt, Tim Corbin's staff would have ironed out whatever was causing his inconsistency and had him at his best more often than not. The Mariners are looking to get in on the ground floor and do it themselves, seeing a combination of stuff and command that could enable him to pitch near the top of their rotation. One downside is age, as he turns 19 in August and is more than a full year older than Edwin Arroyo. The Harrisburg-area native signed for $1.5 million, which was $766,900 above slot value.
4-113: RHP Bryce Miller, Texas A&M. My rank: #89.
Flip Bryce Miller and Michael Morales and you have a couple of picks that would have lined up pretty closely with my board. Bryce Miller was eligible in 2020, but his lack of a track record (especially in the rotation) kept teams from offering him enough money to leave school. A full time starter for the first time in his college career in 2021, Miller thrust himself up draft boards with an absolute gem against New Mexico State on March 6th (7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 15 K) and ultimately finished an up and down season with a 4.45 ERA and a 70/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings. There remain some questions as to whether he can stick in the rotation even after he made ten starts this spring (plus three more relief appearances), but at its best, the stuff is extremely loud. He can run his fastball up to 97-98 at its hottest, coming in with tremendous ride and a flat plane that play extremely well in today's game. His slider looks like a plus pitch at its best his curveball safely above average, and his changeup solid average, and he can provide plenty of strikes too (though in-zone command remains a work in progress). Now that's not always what you get from the 6'2" righty, who remains very new to starting and can see his velocity tick down significantly late in starts, even into the upper 80's, while his curveball can flatten out and he'll lose the strike zone. It probably doesn't help that the only time I watched him pitch in real-time was the day he walked a season-high eight batters against eventual national champion Mississippi State in May. Also working against Miller is his age, as he turns 23 in August and is more than five full years older than Edwin Arroyo. Still, the Mariners think they're buying low. Even if he's almost 23, the New Braunfels native is still pretty new to starting and working out the kinks, so if Seattle can help him bulk up a bit and learn to pace himself a bit better, they have a premium arm on their hands. I think Miller has a chance to become a mid-rotation starter, but even if he's forced back to the bullpen, the stuff stands out even among most "if he ends up in the bullpen" guys and he could be a high-leverage reliever in the bigs. He signed for $400,000, which was $112,400 below slot value.
6-174: RHP Bryan Woo, Cal Poly. Unranked.
The Mariners didn't draft anybody from the Pacific Northwest this year, but the closest they came was Bryan Woo, who grew up just outside Oakland. An unheralded recruit out of Alameda High School, he had a 9.13 ERA as a freshman but has been trending straight up. 2021 was his best season yet, as evaluators will be much happier with his sharp 42/8 strikeout to walk ratio than his 6.11 ERA over 28 innings, though he did go down with Tommy John surgery in April. I only found video of exactly one pitch online, so we're going to have to go off other scouting reports for the most part. The 6'2" righty sits in the low 90's with his fastball and was touching 95-96 this spring, significantly higher than he has in the past and he has the frame and arm speed to add even more velocity in the future. He primarily pitched off that fastball and was hit hard when he left it over the plate, with some thinking the pitch plays too true and that he needs to find a better way to keep hitters off balance. There's a slider that flashes above average, but he'll likely need to take another step forward with it to help his fastball play up. The Mariners could decide to take it slow, put work into his changeup, and have him work up as a starter, but the more likely path is to move him quickly after surgery as a reliever who could approach triple digits. Woo signed for $318,200, which was $31,700 above slot value.
8-234: SS James Parker, Clemson. Unranked.
James Parker was a breakout performer for Clemson this spring, slashing .324/.411/.500 with eight home runs and a 51/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games against a tough schedule. He's not the most explosive hitter in the class, but he finds the barrel consistently from the right side and has the natural strength in his 6'1" frame to profile for average power. There are some concerns about his hit tool, as he struck out in 21.2% of his plate appearances in 2021, but he handled himself well against a tough ACC schedule and has already transitioned well to the minors. Defensively, the Anderson, South Carolina native has some big play ability and a strong arm that should enable him to man shortstop at the big league level, and if he can continue to develop there it makes his bat look a lot better. More realistically, he'll likely end up a utility infielder with some pop, possible 10-15 home runs per season with middling on-base percentages. He signed for $150,000, which was $28,600 below slot, and is off to a red hot start hitting .396/.400/.708 with three home runs in eleven games, mostly at Class A Modesto.
13-384: SS Ben Ramirez, Southern California. Unranked.
Ben Ramirez has long been a household name for scouts in Southern California, as he was teammates with Keoni Cavaco (2019 Twins first rounder) and Casey Schmitt (2020 Giants second rounder) at local powerhouse Eastlake High School. He earned some scouting hype at the time and could have gone somewhere in the middle to back of day two had he been signable, but he came to USC instead and has now appeared in 147 career games there. After going undrafted in the shortened 2020 event, he came back in 2021 and slashed .304/.381/.529 with ten home runs and a 35/26 strikeout walk ratio over 51 games. Now lacking the upside he showed in high school four years ago, Ramirez has your prototypical college performer profile with an average all-around profile. He ran a very solid 14.3% strikeout rate over his four years in Los Angeles and after hitting five home runs over his first three seasons, knocked ten this year. The San Diego-area native has a simple left handed swing and understands the strike zone well, finding the barrel consistently and giving him an outlook as an average or above average hitter in pro ball. He probably won't hit for a ton of power, but his feel for the barrel should enable him to tap everything he has in his 6'3" frame without selling out, and he draws his fair share of walks too. The glove is a little bit stretched at shortstop but he's played everywhere for USC, making this a perfect utility infield profile. He signed for $100,000 and is hitting .381/.435/.476 over six games against mostly younger competition in the ACL.
19-564: C Charlie Welch, Arkansas. Unranked.
Charlie Welch took a long, winding road to stardom, but he got there eventually. Starting off at Jefferson High School in Tampa, he went all the way across the country to Pepperdine for school but hit just .211/.290/.284 as a freshman and came back home for a year of JUCO at St. John's River State. Welch was on the move once more and landed at Arkansas this year, where he struggled to find playing time in their menacing lineup early in the season. He made the most of his limited opportunities though and quickly became a fan favorite in Fayetteville with some massive pinch hits, eventually working his way into the starting lineup and finishing the season with a .388/.494/.821 line, eight home runs, and a 14/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games. Having watched a lot of Arkansas' run to super regionals, it seems like every time he was up in a big situation, he delivered and then some. He has a very sturdy 6' frame that helps him tap his natural power, and could project for average in that regard in pro ball. Welch has shown some swing and miss in the past that might hold him back from tapping it, and he's a below average runner that won't be much of a factor on the bases. He was playing behind one of the best defensive catchers in the country in Casey Opitz, so the Mariners are relying on their looks at him from previous years when it comes to defense. It's a backup catcher profile if he does stick back there, which will help his bat profile, but it might be a bit stretched if he's forced to first base. One thing is for sure, he's not afraid of high pressure situations. He signed for $125,000 and is hitting .167/.375/.333 with a home run through seven games in the ACL.
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