Teams are definitely trending towards drafting college players nowadays, especially once you get out of the first couple of rounds, but the Phillies leaned on a high school-heavy class that saw them take five preps in their first nine picks. It was also a pitcher-heavy class with six in their first eight picks, and the only infielder they drafted in the entire event (twelfth rounder TJ Rumfield) may even move to the outfield eventually. A lot of these guys are interesting for a lot of different reasons, with guys like third rounder Jordan Viars flying way under the radar while fifth rounder Griff McGarry shows one of the most extreme profiles in the entire draft. I think McGarry was my favorite pick, with tenth rounder Logan Cerny being a possible second favorite.
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1-13: RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]. My rank: #26.
For the second year in a row, the Phillies used their first round pick on a tall, projectable high school right hander with great feel for pitching. Andrew Painter simply cruised his way through the summer circuit last year, establishing himself as the top high school pitcher in the country by most accounts. He began the 2021 spring relatively slowly, allowing Jackson Jobe to pull out in front and ultimately keep that label, but righted the ship in plenty of time to keep his name squarely in the first round conversation. Painter throws a low to mid 90's fastball that gets up to around 96, adding a full array of secondaries that all flash above average. His two breaking balls can be relatively inconsistent and sometimes lack finish, but are usually very effective for him. The 6'7" righty has plenty of room to add weight and strength, which could mean more consistent mid 90's velocity, and unlike most lanky high school pitchers, he repeats his delivery extremely well and fills up the strike zone. Painter's feel for pitching stands out in the class, and it enables his entire arsenal to play up and bodes well for continued development of those secondaries. If we're going to nitpick, I had the South Florida native ranked closer to the back of the first round due to the lack of a plus pitch in addition to the fact that his fastball traits are relatively generic, and to me he seems more likely to be a mid-rotation starter than an ace. The floor here is much higher than most preps, however, and he has a chance for four above average pitches with plus command at best. A Florida commit, he instead signed for $3.9 million, which was roughly $300,000 below slot value.
2-49: OF Ethan Wilson, South Alabama. My rank: #33.
The Phillies' second pick this year is fairly similar to their second pick last year as well, taking a college bat that fell perhaps a bit farther than some expected. Ethan Wilson exploded onto the scene with a massive freshman year at South Alabama in 2019, where he slashed .345/.453/.686 with 17 home runs in 56 games. After an unspectacular start to his shortened sophomore season (.282/.329/.465), he came out a fairly different hitter in 2021 and finished with a .318/.419/.528 slash line, eight home runs, and a 21/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. Both his isolated power (.341 to .183) and strikeout rate (17.0% to 8.3%) were way down from his freshman year, signifying a big change in approach. Wilson is known for his huge raw power that has helped him produce elite exit velocities and, when he was swinging for the fences in 2021, plenty of in-game power when combined with the natural loft in his left handed swing. That came with some swing and miss concerns, but he employed more of a line drive approach in 2021 that really cut that down, though it came at the expense of his power. There are some concerns about how the Andalusia, Alabama native's bat will play against more advanced competition, as he faced average arms in the Sun Belt and didn't always show well against stronger non-conference competition. A strong run through the Cape Cod League may have put that to bed, which is what the Phillies likely believe would have been the case, but he never got that chance with the season's cancellation in 2020. If Philadelphia can help Wilson put everything together, they could be buying low on a 30+ home run bat, though those lower on his skill set might see more of a platoon profile. He's an average defender whose instincts may give him the chance to play a fringy center field, but left field is his most likely destination. He signed right at slot value for $1.51 million.
3-84: OF Jordan Viars, Rick Reedy HS [TX]. Unranked.
Jordan Viars was the first player drafted this year that I had not heard of, which is a bit embarrassing on my part because I drove by games where he was on the field but didn't know to stop by. Rick Reedy High School is fifteen minutes from my apartment and right next door to the dog park that I take my dog to multiple times a week. Oops I guess. Anyways, Viars didn't just fly under my own radar because he also went unranked on MLB Pipeline's top 250 and Prospects Live's top 600, and only snuck into the Baseball America 500 at #402. Aside from being a bit of an unknown, he's actually pretty similar to a high school version of Ethan Wilson, showing huge raw power from the left side. That power comes from massive bat speed channeled through a leveraged swing path, effectively driving force from his legs up through his arms and into the barrel. How he'll hit against much more advanced pitching in pro ball remains a mystery, making this also a comparable pick to Rangers 2020 second rounder Evan Carter, another big, young for the class lefty outfielder who is hitting .236/.438/.387 through 32 games at Class A. Viars had been generating some late buzz within the industry and the Phillies are clearly convicted that he will make the transition, or at least believe in the raw talent enough that he's worth the gamble. The fact that he didn't turn 18 until after the draft also helps. Like Wilson, he's a decent defender in the outfield but will make his money with the bat. The Dallas-Fort Worth native was committed to Arkansas, but instead signed for $747,500, which was actually $25,600 above slot value.
4-114: RHP Micah Ottenbreit, Trenton HS [MI]. Unranked.
Micah Ottenbreit gives the Phillies their third high schooler in four picks. Like first rounder Andrew Painter, he's a lanky right handed pitcher that works downhill with a low 90's fastball, but that's about where the similarities end. Ottenbreit tops out around 94 but is almost certain to add velocity as he grows into his rail thin 6'4" frame, with a lightning quick right arm furthering that projection. He adds an inconsistent curveball with deep, two-plane break that flashes plus at its best, but it can get slurvy at times and end up looking like a bad slider. His changeup also shows promise with arm side fade. Over the summer, the Detroit-area native struggled to keep his delivery in sync, often failing to get his upper and lower bodies synced up or repeat a consistent release point. It looked smoother this spring, though the Phillies are still going to need to work on helping him optimally deploy his long arms and legs in the most effective manner. If they can, his ceiling is likely every bit as high as Painter's, but he does have a much longer way to go and for now lacks the elite feel for pitching of his first round counterpart. Committed to Michigan State, he instead signed for $775,000, which was $267,600 above slot value.
5-145: RHP Griff McGarry, Virginia. My rank: #104.
This is the most interesting player in the Phillies' draft. Eligible last year, he went undrafted and returned to school, where his stock mostly held steady until super regionals. Look at the stats, and you get a lot of the picture. Over four years in Charlottesville, he has a 4.84 ERA and a 186/131 strikeout to walk ratio over 134 innings, good for a career walk rate over 20%, and this year he carried a 7.53 ERA and an unplayable 24.8% walk rate into mid-June. Let's stop right there and talk about the stuff. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball over long stints, but can reach back for up to 99 and the pitch plays way above its velocity with tremendous characteristics. He gets tremendous extension and ridiculous spin rates that give the pitch some of the best riding action in the class, looking to the hitter like it's coming in with the trajectory of a rocket. His slider is an absolutely nasty, plus pitch, his curveball can look plus too at its best, and he also shows feel for an above average changeup at times. It's legitimately one of the toughest at bats in college baseball if he's anywhere near the zone. Problem is, he usually isn't. The 6'2" righty had shown absolutely no feel to harness any of his pitches, instead scattering everything just in the general direction of home plate. Now, back to the performance. On June 13th, he carried the aforementioned 7.53 ERA and 24.8% walk rate into a critical super regional start against Dallas Baptist, and he ~threw strikes~. The result? Seven shutout innings on two hits, three walks, and ten strikeouts against a red hot lineup. His next test was against eventual national champion Mississippi State, and he ~threw strikes again~, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning and coming away with eight strikeouts over seven and a third innings. All of a sudden, this package looks a lot more interesting. I don't think anybody expects McGarry to retain his newfound 45 grade command over the long haul, but if he can bump that legitimate 20 up to maybe a 40, he could be absolutely deadly in a big league bullpen. I'm very interested to see what the Phillies do with the 22 year old righty. The San Francisco-area native signed for $322,500, which was $52,700 below slot value, and four batters into his pro career at Class A Clearwater, he has a hit, two walks, and a strikeout on his ledger.
6-175: RHP Jose Peña, Tampa Prep HS [FL]. My rank: #172.
Back to the high school ranks again. In the sixth round, the Phillies grabbed an electric high school arm that has been trending up, but still has a ways to go. Jose Peña leads off with a low to mid 90's fastball that was getting up to 96 this spring, getting high spin rates to boot. His best pitch is a plus, high spin curveball with sharp break that can miss a ton of bats when located, while his changeup is a clear third pitch. The 6'3" righty has a quick arm and a tremendously projectable frame, though he doesn't always repeat his delivery and arm slot well in part due to some extra moving parts within the delivery. That leads to fringy command right now, at times causing his stuff to play down when he gets behind in the count and/or leaves pitches over the heart of the plate. Still, the Phillies see immense upside here and he's one of the younger players in the class, having only turned 18 a few days before the draft. The Tampa native will get a chance to hop in with Andrew Painter and Micah Ottenbreit and get plenty of time to iron things out in the low minors, and if things break right, he could be a mid-rotation starter. Committed to Florida International, he instead signed for $222,500, which was an absolute deal at $61,700 below slot value.
7-205: RHP Christian McGowan, Eastern Oklahoma State JC. My rank: #175.
Eastern Oklahoma State was this year's San Jacinto in that no matter what day you came, you were probably seeing a legitimate pro prospect on the mound. Christian McGowan was right in the middle of that, and he finished his best year yet with a 2.55 ERA and a 109/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings. McGowan has loud stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touching as high as 98-99, adding a big, two plane slider and an average changeup. He comes from a very high release height which puts a ton of downward plane on his pitches, which depending on who you talk to, is either a good or a bad thing. The modern philosophy says it's not so great, as steep planed fastballs tend to match the trajectory of today's uppercut swings, while flat planed fastballs (like Griff McGarry's) ride above them. Still, the game is always changing and could be different in a few years when McGowan reaches the majors, and regardless, 99 is tough to hit no matter the angle. The 6'3" righty is generally around the zone, but he can get a bit scattered at times and will likely need to improve his command at least a half grade to stick in the rotation. If the command does come along, he has the build and delivery to last there long term. The rural southern Oklahoma native could see his stuff jump in the bullpen (as could everybody, really), where the fastball could sit more consistently in the upper 90's with less concern over its steep plane and his slider could play more consistently to its plus potential. He signed for $577,000, which was $354,900 above slot value.
10-295: OF Logan Cerny, Troy. My rank: #177.
Logan Cerny marks the second power hitting outfielder out of a Sun Belt school in southern Alabama, giving the Phillies a right handed hitter to pair with the left handed hitting Ethan Wilson. Many expected Cerny to go sooner than 295th overall, with my ranking of #177 actually lower than MLB Pipeline (#173), Baseball America (#164), and his biggest fans at Prospects Live (#116). He's coming off a huge junior season at Troy in which he slashed .332/.424/.694 with 15 home runs and a 66/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games, showing off most of his profile through the numbers. The Atlanta-area native has above average raw power that he generates with a ton of torque in his right handed swing, whipping the barrel up and through the zone for impressive home runs. With some room to grow into his extremely athletic 6'1" frame, there could be a bit more in the tank, too. He's an easy plus runner that has stolen 25 bases in 92 games for the Trojans, which will enable him to not only stick in center field, but be an asset there. The biggest drawback in Cerny's profile is his hit tool, as he struck out in 28.6% of his plate appearances against an average Sun Belt schedule and is completely unproven against higher level pitching. He got his chance in a three game set at Florida State late in the season, and while he did pick up six hits (including three doubles) in twelve at bats, he also struck out in each of his other six trips to the plate. Cerny's most likely profile is as a do-it-all fourth outfielder or platoon bat, but if the Phillies can help him rein in his approach a bit and cut down the swing and miss, he has a higher ceiling than most tenth round college bats. He signed right at slot value for $146,100.
12-355: 3B TJ Rumfield, Virginia Tech. Unranked.
The Phillies are getting an interesting one here in TJ Rumfield, who could be seen as a bit of a discount JT Schwartz (Mets 2021 fourth rounder from UCLA). A Texas Tech transfer, Rumfield had a strong year with Virginia Tech, slashing .315/.402/.478 with seven home runs and a 23/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games, hitting right in the middle of the Hokies' lineup against a tough ACC schedule. For now, he's definitely contact over power, showing great feel for the strike zone that will serve him well as he transitions to pro pitching. The power might be in there, however, as he has plenty of leverage in his lanky, 6'5" frame and a swing that could be tweaked just a little bit to provide more elevation. With some strength gains that could come with a pro development program (and the fact that he only turned 21 in May doesn't hurt either), he could end up with 55 hit, 55 power in the long run, which is tremendous value in the twelfth round no matter the defensive profile. Speaking of which, he's not a great defender and figures to man first base or a corner outfield spot in the long run, so he'll have to hit. It's definitely going to take considerable work to get Rumfield to that 55/55 I mentioned, especially the power, and it's harder to play projection on college bats than it is for high schoolers, but he may have it in him. The Temple, Texas native signed for $125,000.
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