There is a lot to unpack here with the Mets' draft class, perhaps more than any other team. They started it off with the most famous name in the draft, Vanderbilt ace Kumar Rocker, but pulled his offer after a disagreement over his medical and showed him the door. That would be a disaster for any team, but it was especially bad for the Mets, who did not put a backup plan in place by drafting an "unsignable" high schooler on the third day of the draft. They spent more than a million less than their bonus pool throughout the second day of the draft in order to afford Rocker's original $6 million signing bonus, passing over some big talent in the process. Had they picked up a "priced out" high schooler like, say, Hagen Smith, on day three, they could have used that extra million to bring him in as a consolation prize. Instead, they signed all of their day three picks for $125,000 or less, again missing out on some top talent. Now, it's not all gloom for the Mets, because despite the awful position they put themselves in (and put Kumar in an even worse position), I actually think they drafted really well with the crappy hand they dealt themselves. Second rounder Calvin Ziegler is a stud who would have fit great in the third round and signed well below slot, third rounder Dominic Hamel had close to second round value in my opinion, and fourth rounder JT Schwartz absolutely had fourth round value even though he signed below slot. So even though this was a disaster, it could have been worse.
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1-10: RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt. My rank: #10.
This was the most talked about pick in the draft this year, and for good reason. Kumar Rocker was the most famous name in the class, having been a potential first round pick out of high school in 2018 before setting the world on fire as a freshman in 2019. That year, he played a huge part in pitching Vanderbilt to the national championship, and his signature moment came when he struck out 19 in a super regional no-hitter against Duke. Though he had his inconsistencies, it was more of the same in 2021 as he finished with a 2.73 ERA and a 179/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 innings leading up to a runner-up finish for the Commodores, the 179 strikeouts tying with his teammate Jack Leiter to lead the nation. The Mets picked him up with the tenth overall pick and almost immediately agreed to a $6 million signing bonus, but they disliked his medicals and rescinded the offer completely. Not reduced, rescinded. Because the Mets still own Rocker's draft rights despite actively not wanting him, he can't sign with another team, so he has a few options. His camp hasn't given any clarity on what he'll do, but he could go back to Vanderbilt (which seems unlikely), pitch in independent ball, work out on his own, or go the Carter Stewart route to Japan. It's sucks because he did nothing wrong to be put in this position, but unfortunately that's the way MLB has it set up. As for his skillset, the big 6'5" righty has a fastball that generally sits in the low to mid 90's and touches the upper 90's at its best, though it did dip briefly in 2021. His slider is his money pitch, looking like a plus-plus wipeout offering in the past, but it got slurvy at times this year. He also shows an above average cutter and has shown feel for a changeup, but the latter got hit hard when he broke it out this year. He has great control and rarely hurts himself with walks, but struggles with location inside the zone and could get hit hard in pro ball if he doesn't tighten that up. There are also some moving parts in his delivery that need to be ironed out, but he's a great athlete that moves very well for his size. Lastly, he's a big game pitcher who always steps up in high pressure situations, with all the intangibles you look for in a workhorse ace.
2-46: RHP Calvin Ziegler, TNXL Academy [FL]. My rank: #95.
The Mets got their biggest discount with Calvin Ziegler, a Canadian high schooler who was eligible last year but went undrafted. He was extremely young for the class last year so he's age appropriate this year, after which he spent the spring pitching at TNXL Academy in Orlando. He's got a power arm that can pump fastballs in the low to mid 90's, getting up as high as 98 at best. The Ontario native adds an above average curveball and changeup, giving him one of the better three pitch mixes in the class. It's a pretty efficient operation drawing power from his back leg, channeling all of the strength in his sturdy 6' frame towards the plate. His command can come and go, but he's generally around the strike zone and shows flashes of above average command. Ziegler does a lot well and is trending in the right direction, and so long as his command stays together, he carries less risk than the typical high school arm because of that. The Mets probably won't get an ace here, but they should be getting at least a very capable back-end starter with a good shot at becoming a mid-rotation guy. He signed for $910,000, which was roughly $710,000 below slot value to forego an Auburn commitment.
3-81: RHP Dominic Hamel, Dallas Baptist. My rank: #59.
I love this pick for the Mets, and they didn't even have to go above slot to get it done. Dominic Hamel has been draft eligible for five years in a row, but went undrafted in 2017 out of high school, in 2018 and 2019 at Yavapai JC in Arizona, and again in 2020 at Dallas Baptist. He might have gone somewhere in the sixth to tenth round range in 2020 had the draft been longer, but he took a step forward in 2021 anyways and posted a 4.22 ERA and a 136/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings. Hamel has a very interesting fastball that sits in the low 90's and tops out around 96, but he combines excellent extension with high spin rates to make the pitch play up. He adds a curveball and a slider, both of which come with high spin rates as well, and though they can blend into each other at times, there is a lot to work with. Currently, his changeup is his fourth pitch. The Phoenix-area native shows average command, nothing special but enough to get the job done, though his delivery can be a bit rushed at times. He's far from a finished product even though he's already 22, and to a traditional club he could look like a reliever. If the Mets get creative in their development, though, his unique pitch metrics could make him an impact starting pitcher once the New York optimizes his approach and helps him get a little more refined with those secondary pitches. If he takes a step forward with either his command or that secondary stuff, I think we're talking about at least a #3 or #4 starter. If not, the stuff will play up in short bursts out of the bullpen. The 6'2" righty signed for full slot value at $755,300.
4-111: 1B JT Schwartz, UCLA. My rank: #112.
Here's another fun one. As a Nationals fan who saw a very similar player in Branden Boissiere sign for $600,000 a round earlier, I actually would have preferred this JT Schwartz pick regardless of the fact that he signed for more than $100,000 less. After redshirting his freshman year, Schwartz has been the most consistent hitter in a stacked UCLA lineup over the past two seasons and was one of the toughest outs on the West Coast this spring, slashing .396/.514/.628 with eight home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. Schwartz has a plus hit tool that enables him to find the barrel exceptionally easily, deftly identifying balls from strikes and controlling the strike zone throughout his at bats. Listed at a lanky 6'4", he has slowly been adding power to his game and popped for eight home runs this spring, though from a first baseman you likely want to see more. There are some concerns over how physical he will actually end up, but if I were the Mets, I would feed him nothing but steaks and protein powder until he was hitting 20+ home runs a year (though given the fact that he'll be making a four figure salary in the minors, that might be unlikely). The Southern California native is probably limited to first base in pro ball, and if the Mets had any inclination of trying him out at third base, they probably would have announced him as one, though what you're officially drafted as really doesn't matter. The sky is the limit if he can bump his power up, but the most likely outcome I see is a 15-20 home run hitter with high on-base percentages and little defensive value, and he'll have to prove he's durable after missing time with hip issues. Schwartz signed for $475,000, which was $47,600 below slot value, and has three hits in twelve at bats so far for Low A St. Lucie.
5-142: RHP Christian Scott, Florida. Unranked.
A bit buried in an incredibly deep Florida pitching staff that saw three other pitchers get drafted (Tommy Mace, Jack Leftwich, Franco Aleman, and ironically all by the Indians), Christian Scott showed very well out of the Gator bullpen with a 3.00 ERA and a 51/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 innings this spring. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and got as high as 98 in 2021, getting some nice run on the ball. Scott's primary offspeed pitch is an above average slider that helped him miss plenty of bats, and he has shown an average changeup from time to time. The 6'4" righty stays closed in his delivery before forcefully unwinding at the last second, but his command did take a step forward in 2021 and he was getting ahead in the count much more often. Because of the effort delivery though, it's hard to see him working back into the rotation in the Mets' system and he's probably a long term reliever. He's very old for a junior and already turned 22 in June, further pointing to a bullpen career. The South Florida native signed for $350,000, which was $36,600 below slot value.
6-172: RHP Carson Seymour, Kansas State. Unranked.
Carson Seymour is well travelled, having grown up in California before beginning his college career nearly 2500 miles away at Dartmouth, after which he came almost exactly halfway home to Kansas State. So I guess the compromise between California and New Hampshire is Kansas. He looked sharp in 2020 and earned serious consideration towards the back of the five round draft, but went undrafted and came back to Manhattan for another season. This year was very up and down and he finished with a 6.19 ERA and a 57/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings. Seymour is a power arm if you've ever seen one, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball over long outings and getting up to 99 in short stints. The 6'6", 260 pound righty also spins a plus slider that can crack 90, something that will be a true weapon even at the big league level. He also shows feel for an above average curveball and a solid changeup, but he's 22 and a half and scouts are still waiting for him to put it all together. Seymour has long struggled to repeat his delivery and often gets caught leaving pitches over the plate after he falls behind in the count, making all of his pitches play down. It also doesn't help that his fastball is pretty straight and should probably be tinkered with in pro ball, perhaps switched to a two seamer or sinker. The Mets have their work cut out for them in making the Southern California product a useable big league piece, but the sky is the limit and in the best case scenario, he may not just be limited to a bullpen role. He signed for full slot value at $291,400.
8-232: RHP Mike Vasil, Virginia. My rank: #147.
Mike Vasil's stock has been on a bit of a rollercoaster for a long time. He was considered a potential first round pick out of high school, but got hurt as a senior and fulfilled his commitment to Virginia. There, he underwhelmed evaluators over the first two years of his college career, watching his stock fall considerably. Then in 2021, he came out firing with three straight gems to start off the season against UConn, UNC, and Florida State, each of whom made a regional, pushing his name back up boards into top two rounds consideration. Then his stuff flattened back out and he has steadily fallen ever since, furthering UVA's terribly poor track record of developing pitchers. He finished with a 4.52 ERA and a 73/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings. Vasil shows a low 90's fastball that can get up to 94-95, adding a full arsenal of secondary pitches behind it. His slider is short and hard, while his curveball is sharp but doesn't always show big depth, and his changeup gets good fade. They're all useful pitches, but none acts as a true putaway pitch and he doesn't have quite enough velocity to just gas hitters up. The 6'5" righty has a big frame and hits his spots well with above average command, meaning all the puzzle pieces are in place for a #3 or #4 starter. But because he's failed to miss a ton of bats, it's probably a #5 starter outlook unless he gets a lot more consistent with one of his breaking balls. In the third to fifth round where he was projected, that was a tough sell, but it's certainly an interesting one in the eighth. The Boston-area native signed for full slot value at $181,200.
11-322: OF Rowdey Jordan, Mississippi State. Unranked.
In 2019, the Mets picked up all time SEC hits leader Jake Mangum and all time LSU hits leader Antoine Duplantis, and while Rowdey Jordan didn't exactly threaten Mangum's Mississippi State record, the New York is getting a similar player as they load up on established SEC leadoff men. Rowdey was a fan favorite in Starkville, where he was Mangum's heir in that regard in addition to being the next leadoff man, and he finished a very successful four year career with a .311/.393/.481 line over 208 games. This year, he set career highs in all three triple slash categories at .323/.417/.546, adding ten home runs and a 43/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 games. The Auburn, Alabama native is not overly physical at 5'10", but gets the job done due to strong feel for the barrel and plenty of twitchy strength in his smaller frame. He shows no problems handling advanced SEC pitching and setting the table for the guys behind him, employing a somewhat aggressive approach as well as a willingness to take his HBP's and get on base. Jordan is an above average runner who will steal his share of bases in the majors, and he should also be able to stick in center field. It's definitely a fourth outfielder profile because he likely won't ever develop more than 10-12 home run power at best and shows an average hit tool, but he has a lot of success already under his belt and should transition to pro ball relatively easily. He signed for $125,000 and is off to a red hot start for Low A St. Lucie, slashing .429/.500/.476 with more walks (4) than strikeouts (3) through seven games.
16-472: RHP Trey McLoughlin, Fairfield. Unranked.
The Mets didn't draft any true hometown guys, but we can consider Trey McLoughlin to be one as a product of Shelton High School just west of New Haven and a four year Fairfield Stag. His teammate, Watertown (near Waterbury) native Justin Guerrera, also went to the Mets in the twentieth round. McLoughlin missed most of the 2021 season but controlled the strike zone well when he was on the mound, posting a 4.94 ERA and a 32/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.2 innings, including a regional start against Arizona State. He sits around 90 with his fastball, bumping 93 at his best, while adding a good curveball. The 6'2" righty shows strong command and could stick in the rotation if the Mets find a way to bump his velocity up a little bit and refines his changeup, and he's known as a strong competitor. That's about all the information I have. He signed for $30,000 and has allowed two runs in three innings so far for Low A St. Lucie, striking out five.
18-532: RHP Kolby Kubichek, Texas. Unranked.
I was hoping for a breakout from Kolby Kubichek this spring, but he was more good than great and couldn't quite build on his stock. Still, he remains a very interesting arm here in the eighteenth round. Having jumped onto scouts radars with a fantastic run through the Cape Cod League as an underclassman in 2019 (1.77 ERA, 41/12 K/BB in 35.2 IP), he finished the 2021 season with a 3.86 ERA and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings for Texas, all as a starter. Kubichek is an undersized sinkerballer who sits around 90 with his fastball, topping out around 93-94, though the movement is above average. He adds an above average changeup that is his best secondary option, playing extremely well off his sinker, while his slider and curveball are more fringe-average pitches that don't miss a ton of bats. The 6' righty shows fringe-average command as well, which will need to improve given his profile as a pitch to contact guy. Either that, or we'll need to see an uptick in his velocity and one of his breaking balls, but given his size the command is probably more likely where he needs to focus. The Bryan, Texas native has a chance to be a #4-#5 starter or long reliever. He signed for $125,000 and has allowed three runs (one earned) over three innings between the FCL and Low A St. Lucie, striking out three.
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