Saturday, August 24, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

The Mets pulled together a really interesting class filled with diverse skill sets that will be interesting to track in pro ball. It's headlined by Carson Benge, a do-it-all two-way guy who looks like he'll be a hitter only, and includes some live arms, data sleepers, and guys with interesting back stories. Now in the modern bonus pool era, teams almost universally sign every pick in the top ten rounds, but it appears the Mets are the one team to struggle with it. After failing to sign first rounder Kumar Rocker in 2021, they did the same with 2022 third rounder Brandon Sproat (then drafted and signed him a year later) and couldn't come to terms with ninth rounder Jaxon Jelkin this year.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-19: OF Carson Benge, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $4.22 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($221,700 below slot value).
My rank: #15. MLB Pipeline: #18. Baseball America: #15.
The Mets started off their draft with a fun one, one which reminds me just a bit of Mets 2023 third rounder and fellow OSU Cowboy Nolan McLean. Benge, a first rounder, has a much more polished, well-rounded profile and lacks McLean's other-worldly power, but aligns as a rangy, athletic two-way player with tremendous physical talent beyond just the baseball ability. McLean is now a pitcher, while it looks like Benge is going to hit. Tommy John surgery stole his freshman season in 2022, but he has been as central a piece as you can have for Oklahoma State over the past two seasons. He does a bit of it all. Benge has long levers in his 6'1" frame that he consistently gets extended, driving hard line drives around the field with plenty of regularity. While he prefers that all-fields approach, he's plenty strong with above average power that he is tapping more and more in games. With a patient approach and strong bat to ball, he controls the strike zone and walks at a high rate, and his overall skill set will be conducive to tapping more and more power as he develops. Some scouts question his unorthodox swing mechanics, which start with an open stance, continue into a leg kick/double foot tap hybrid coinciding with a barrel tip/hitch in his hands, and finish with significant head whack in his swing. Still, despite all the moving parts, he gets that barrel where it needs to be better than most hitters in this draft, speaking volumes to his innate hand-eye coordination. An average runner, he plays a very solid right field with his plus right arm that also serves him on the mound, where he is up to 96 with a deep slider and improving command. The Oklahoma City-area product is a great athlete that moves very well on both sides of the ball, further lending to the projection in his profile. With his athleticism, strength, barrel accuracy, patience, and projection, he could become one of the most well-rounded hitters in this class when all is said and done, with the chance to hit 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages. He hasn't quite hit his stride yet, hitting .176/.391/.176 with eight strikeouts to five walks through five games at Low A St. Lucie.

2-46: LHP Jonathan Santucci, Duke {video}
Slot value: $2.03 million. Signing bonus: $2.03 million.
My rank: #41. MLB Pipeline: #37. Baseball America: #32.
Jonathan Santucci has been on a bit of an interesting ride and he comes with more upside than the typical second round college arm. After establishing himself with a very strong freshman season in 2022, elbow problems cut his strong start to the 2023 season short. Santucci got off to a hot start again in 2024, putting up seventeen straight scoreless innings against Indiana, Northwestern, and Akron right out of the gate (including fourteen strikeouts in six innings against Akron), and found himself in the middle of the first round conversation to the point where he may not have even been available to the Mets at #19. Unfortunately, command woes derailed his season from there somewhat, but righted the ship somewhat at the end and kept himself within the top fifty picks. Santucci has almost all of the ingredients you look for in an impact starting pitcher. The 6'2" lefty is durably and athletically built with a pretty ideal frame to throw 180+ innings a year in the bigs, with a fairly clean delivery that should be pretty repeatable with pro instruction. The fastball sits low to mid 90's and gets up to 96-97 at peak, coming in with above average riding life to make it play up another tick with close to a 30% whiff rate. He gets late, deep bite on his plus slider that gets excellent results, especially when he commands it. He doesn't use his changeup as much, but it too looks like a potential weapon against righties with great fade to the arm side. It's a true big league three pitch mix from the left side, something you rarely find from a starting pitcher mold in the second round. While the Massachusetts native has held together his command at times, it escaped him more often than not in 2024 as he struggled to repeat his release point and execute his spots. The stuff was still enough to overwhelm ACC hitters and his 35% strikeout rate was among the better marks you'll see, though the 14% walk rate showed the other side of that. If the Mets can help him gain just enough feel for his delivery to live in the zone, the stuff will take care of the rest and he could be a #2 or #3 starter. If not, he could end up a frustrating back-end starter that pops for some gems or a three pitch reliever.

3-82: RHP Nate Dohm, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: $934,800. Signing bonus: $797,500 ($137,300 below slot value).
My rank: #122. MLB Pipeline: #165. Baseball America: #150.
I found Nate Dohm to be an interesting sleeper this year and I had him ranked about a round ahead of most other outlets. It seems the Mets agreed, and they drafted him about a round earlier than I had him ranked, paying him roughly the slot value for pick #92 here at pick #82. Despite coming from a big SEC program, he took a fairly circuitous route to where he is now. An Indianapolis-area native, he began his career at Ball State and transferred to Mississippi State after a solid freshman season. He was off to an excellent start as a starter in 2024 when forearm problems shut him down in March, and after making one short appearance in April, he returned for three relief appearances in May. Health is certainly a question mark, but the stuff isn't. Dohm's fastball can sit in the low to mid 90's and touch 99 in short stints (though a few ticks below that in longer outings), coming in with big riding action from a great release point. It's a true plus pitch, and it looks plus-plus in short bursts. He shows a pair of above average breaking balls and can execute them better than most amateur pitchers. The changeup is interesting, as he typically lacks feel for it and doesn't use it too much, but every once in a while he grips it right and can show a plus one. On top of everything, Dohm is an impressive mover on the mound that gets nice extension and a low release point to make everything play up a little more out of his hand. The 6'4" righty also shows above average command and walked just four batters in 29.1 innings in 2024, giving him almost all of the ingredients to become an impact starting pitcher. At this point, the only issue is durability, as in addition to the missed time in 2024, he has made just eleven starts over three years in college and he has never thrown more than 41 innings in a season. Some scouts are also turned off by his delivery, which includes a late arm and late jerk down the mound. The Mets are banking on the excellent combination of size, stuff, command, and release point, and are hoping that they can iron out the delivery a little bit to keep him on the mound consistently. That durability will be the difference in whether he ends up a starter or a reliever.

4-111: OF Eli Serrano III, North Carolina State {video}
Slot value: $656,400. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($41,100 above slot value).
My rank: #155. MLB Pipeline: #224. Baseball America: #205.
Eli Serrano is an interesting one, and like Dohm, both the Mets and I like him better than the big publications. He jumped onto the scene with a nice freshman season at NC State (.292/.389/.470, 7 HR), then failed to take a step forward with almost the exact same numbers as a sophomore in 2024 (.286/.383/.433, 9 HR). However, while those numbers look underwhelming in a year of high offense around the league, the underlying metrics are very impressive. Serrano shows sneaky average raw power, and with his height (6'5") and projection he could grow into above average power pretty easily. At this point, he's more of a line drive hitter so that power doesn't really manifest itself in games, but he has the hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel to elevate more with pro instruction. He's also an excellent contact hitter who quietly ran one of the higher contact rates in this draft class, and in fact was one of just five players on the Baseball America 500 (out of 145 college hitters) to turn in a contact rate above 85% and a 90th percentile exit velocity above 105 MPH. The high contact rates mean that he puts the ball in play as often as anybody, and was one of just four college hitters on my draft board (out of 73) to keep both his strikeout rate and his walk rate below 10% apiece. For the most part, the Mets are buying the bat here with his potential to hit 15-20 home runs per season with high batting averages. The glove is more ordinary, as Serrano shows average defensive tools across the board. His most likely destination is left field, where his lack of speed and arm strength can be hidden a little more, especially if he slows down further with age. So far, he's hitting .185/.241/.333 with one home run and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games for Low A St. Lucie.

5-144: SS Trey Snyder, Liberty North HS [MO] {video}
Slot value: $476,200. Signing bonus: $1.32 million ($846,300 above slot value).
My rank: #167. MLB Pipeline: #155. Baseball America: #142.
The Mets' largest over slot bonus by far went to Trey Snyder, who has a chance to be the team's shortstop of the future if everything breaks right. Initially committed to Tennessee, it took roughly the slot value for the #64 pick to lure him to New York instead. Snyder is more about polish over tools, so the development plan should be more straightforward than not. Though he's not ultra projectable, he has a quick right handed swing with natural loft that should help him maximize his fringy raw power in games. He already has a long track record of hitting against strong competition, supported by a disciplined approach at the plate and good feel for the barrel. The upside here is probably 10-20 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which will be plenty at shortstop. Snyder shows great body control at shortstop to make all the plays that come to him, with quick feet to make adjustments and enough arm to make it work on the left side of the infield. He's more of an average runner and the arm is more good than great, so there is a chance he gets pushed to second or third base by a more explosive defender. There's no question that the Kansas City-area product can flat out play ball, so his ability to impact the baseball and maintain his athleticism will determine his ultimate impact at the big league level.

6-173: 1B Corey Collins, Georgia {video}
Slot value: $363,100. Signing bonus: $275,000 ($88,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #170. Baseball America: #182.
You can't research every player, so every year there has to be a cutoff and Corey Collins was one of those who just missed it for me in 2024. He represents one of the better senior signs in the country, giving the Mets close to a $100K haircut here in the sixth round while still bringing big league upside. A well-known prep catcher out of the Atlanta area in 2020, he ranked #122 on my draft board that year but wound up staying home to attend Georgia. He was more good than great as a hitter and ultimately failed to draw the same level of interest he had in high school, but broke out for a massive senior season in 2024 in which he slashed .354/.574/.772 with 20 home runs while batting in front of 2024 Golden Spikes Award winner and third overall pick Charlie Condon. Big and burly at a list 6'3", 235 pounds, he deploys his natural strength into true plus raw power that he tapped consistently in games in 2024. It's a really short, direct left handed swing that helped him simplify things at the plate and focus on jacking baseballs out over the right field wall. That approach continued to work for him against high level pitching in SEC play, where he hit .350/.538/.780 with 13 home runs in 29 games. In addition to the prodigious power, Collins has a discerning eye at the plate that helps him identify which pitches he can turn on while laying off the ones he can't. The approach is ahead of the pure bat to ball here, so it will be a challenge in the upper level's of pro ball against advanced pitchers who can execute quality pitches on the corners. While he has seen time behind the plate, his lack of agility has always made that a stretch and it's appeared less and less likely he would play there in pro ball. The fact that the Mets drafted him as a first baseman is a pretty big indication that they don't see a future at catcher, either. In that sense, he'll have to hit, and that seems likely. He has the upside of a 20+ home run hitter with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages, which would certainly play in a platoon role. Beyond walking a lot, he also finished fourth in NCAA Division I with 28 hit by pitches and led the SEC by a massive margin – no other hitter in the conference was hit by more than 20. Together with the walks, he reached base without swinging the bat in 34.7% of his plate appearances this past season. Age is a downside, as he'll be 23 in October. He's played one game so far, walking and ironically stealing a base for Low A St. Lucie despite not having stolen a base at Georgia since 2021.

10-293: RHP Brendan Girton, Oklahoma {video}
Slot value: $184,300. Signing bonus: $122,500 ($61,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Brendan Girton represents another senior sign and gives the Mets a potential power reliever. Hailing from the tiny town of Gage in far northwestern Oklahoma, he spent three seasons at Texas Tech pitching to mixed results. He transferred to Oklahoma to pitch his senior season back in his home state, but after a very strong season opening start against Tennessee (4 IP, 1 ER, 9 K), he struggled with consistency and finished with an ERA over seven and nearly a walk per inning. Girton is a power pitcher, with a fastball sitting in the mid 90's and touching 98 in short stints. Beyond the velocity, the pitch plays up further with running and riding life from a low slot and nice extension. It's really one of the better fastballs you'll find this late in the draft. His power slider shows nice late bite and dives below bats when he's going good, but he's inconsistent with it and doesn't always execute it. Above all, the 6'1" righty has below average command that has made both of his pitches play down, and that right there will be the key to pro success. Girton lacks starter upside due to that command and his lack of a changeup, though he is sturdily built and should be durable enough to thrive in a full time relief role. If he gets the command together a little, he could move quickly.

11-323: 2B Nick Roselli, Binghamton {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Mets opened up day three with a hometown pick. Nick Roselli hails from Levittown on Long Island, where he attended Division Avenue High School and hit .619 as a senior. He spent three years at Binghamton, where he hit from day one and got better each year despite breaking his hamate bone on Opening Day 2024 and missing nearly two months. Undersized at 5'10", he uses a quick left handed swing to drive the ball with much more authority than you'd expect from a smaller guy. He's shown the ability to turn on the ball to the pull side while spraying hard line drives to all fields, though that power has not shown up with wood bats and he has slugged just .293 with two home runs in 64 games over his three seasons in summer wood bat leagues. He hasn't faced the strongest competition in the America East Conference, where he has shown very strong plate discipline and bat to ball, though that approach has carried over to his wood bat leagues. With average speed and a general lack of explosiveness, both his range and arm are best suited for second base in the long run, where he has strong feel for the position and should be an average defender. It would appear as a utility infield profile with the potential to show average offensive numbers across the board at peak, though being limited to second base and left field makes that a little tougher. Regardless, the Mets will love having Nick Roselli from Levittown in the lineup if he can push his way up there. He has shown pretty well so far, hitting .278/.409/.389 with a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio over six games at Low A St. Lucie.

14-413: RHP Tanner Witt, Texas {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($72,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Tanner Witt has been a known commodity not just to Texas scouts but to scouting directors for a long time now. A highly regarded two-way prep out of his Houston high school, Witt ranked #88 on my 2020 draft board and had draft interest as high as the first round, but was dead set on heading to Austin to play for the Longhorns. After a strong freshman season in 2021 and two strong starts to begin 2022, he seemed to be solidifying himself as a likely first round pick for the 2023 draft. However, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of that sophomore season, then did not look like himself in six abbreviated starts at the end of 2023. Still, he ranked #93 on my board that year and ranked as the top unsigned draft prospect returning to school in 2024. Unfortunately, health problems persisted into 2024 and he lasted just five short appearances before being shut down again. He's allegedly healthy now, having posted this video shortly before the draft (on his 22nd birthday no less), so the Mets will look to get him back to where he was from 2020-2022. So what was all the first round hype about? Witt's fastball sits in the low 90's, having touched 97 in the past, with huge riding action from a very high, over the top sot that counteracts the movement a little. His signature pitch is a big 12-6 curveball with tremendous depth, though it breaks so much that he doesn't always execute it where he wants it. There's a solid slider in there that he unveiled while at Texas, and his above average changeup rounds out a pretty complete arsenal. Witt has really filled out his 6'6" frame and now fully looks the part of a big league starting pitcher, with an easy, repeatable delivery that he shows great feel for. Previously, he showed an interesting double tap in his hand break in which he showed the ball to hitters before tapping it back into the glove, but watching the video linked a few sentences back it appears he has eliminated that. It also looks like he has dropped his arm slot a bit, so the extremely high release point may be no more. Witt's father, Kevin, played five sporadic seasons in the big leagues between 1998 and 2006 and the baseball IQ has clearly been passed onto Tanner, who has displayed an advanced understanding for pitching and a drive to improve. He was still figuring out how to command the baseball at the collegiate level when his injury woes started (remember, he was only fully healthy as an 18 year old freshman), and while all signs pointed to him figuring that out, it's now going to be a question mark. Durability is of course another major question mark as he has thrown just 31 innings over the past three seasons and hasn't really looked like himself since February 2022, but "himself" is a potential #2-#3 starter who could reach the majors in a hurry. The Mets have a really interesting development project in front of them and although he was a senior sign, he was young for the class and only turned 22 shortly before the draft.

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